[000:00:00;00] because among the republicans in the house of representatives there are too many ultra-rightists who simply do not want to support ukraine, there are not many of them in the senate, there are about ten, well, this can be seen in the previous preliminary votes for allocating money for aid to ukraine in the house of representatives there are more of them, but they do not make up the majority, and therefore there is one without ... conditionally there is a two-party majority, which would have been, if the speaker had put this issue to a vote, this majority would have voted for allocating aid to ukraine, i think that here was such a political game by the speaker, mccarthy, because he is terrified that the far-right in his own faction will raise questions of confidence in him, and that means removing

him from office, and they ... said that if, if he insists on the fact that aid to ukraine was in the budget, so they will ask this question, so i think that mccarthy decided to play such a game, to pass a temporary budget so that he would not be accused of causing the shutdown, and to postpone the question of aid to ukraine for next week actually it's a shame i, as a citizen of the united states , for example, am ashamed that this is happening, but on the other hand, i am sure that money for budget money to finance aid to ukraine will be allocated in the near future. i will make one more remark here, again about biden's statements, regarding the decision of the senate. i fully expect that the speaker, mr. mccarthy, is meant to stand by his commitment to the people of ukraine and provide the support necessary to help ukraine at this critical time,

the president said. i hope so, that's why you know, there are internal american political games, there is, there is a very inappropriate struggle between, between, both parties on internal political issues, there is such a confrontation, but still the majority of american society supports ukraine, and for the majority of american society it is absolutely clear that ukraine is fighting for the same values ​​on which the united states itself was built, and therefore to leave ukraine without help would simply betray the values ​​of the united states, well , that's it by the way, i'm talking about all these last the statements and the leaders of both parties in the senate and the statement of the president that you just quoted, it seems that this will be a priority

issue as early as next week. allocations to help ukraine. mr. igor, i found information that since 1981 , shutdowns in the united states of america have occurred 14 times, and usually they lasted a day or two, there were more, the most, the shutdown lasted about a month in the winter of 18-19 , and if not elections in the 24th year, would we have the situation we have now? well, i know. the elections are far away, they will be more than a year from now, we still have to live until them, i think that this is not related to the elections, it is related to the fact that here is a group of far-right republicans, from their 90s to 100 in the house of representatives, they, they did not want the adoption of the budget, on the one hand, on the other hand, they categorically oppose aid to ukraine, they believe that if the budget was not adopted, then it is good, because it

will help trump to fall on biden that biden is to blame for the fact that there is a shutdown, what, what everything stopped, i remember well, here is the last shutdown, this dov, which lasted for a month in the 18th year, well, of course, what do you see, this is this , you can't say that this is an absolute disaster for the country, but entire industries , which are funded entirely from the federal budget, they operate, well, you know, on a tightrope, that's what you can say, if the air traffic controllers, for example, all over the big country yes... air air communication is very important, which is literally fed by air transport, they work not receiving no wages, when, when that yes they are employees of the federal government, no salary, the same thing, even the federal bureau of investigation, investigators, all, all detectives, fbi agents do not receive any salary, any projects of the federal

government, nasa, let's say space exploration is not funded , the military would, let's say, if there was a shutdown, the military would stop receiving their salary for tomorrow, well, it 's natural that it always happens, when this happens, it's abnormal, it always happens, all shutdowns are the results of such political confrontations, usually between the white house and the house of representatives in congress, in this case it is a ridiculous confrontation that the republicans started, well, it is ridiculous, because in the senate, with a majority of democrats, it is absolutely clear that those, significant reductions or even termination of funding those government programs initiated by the biden administration, such as investments in infrastructure reconstruction, etc.,

which have created hundreds of thousands, if not millions of new jobs, these far-right republicans wanted to completely to end or significantly cut funding for these programs, clearly he would never approve it, so... it was an absolutely ridiculous idea to go to the shutdown to blame it on biden, because in the senate it takes 60 votes to pass a budget, and that is, since no party ever has 60 votes in the senate, the senate can pass a budget only on the basis of a bipartisan compromise, and the house of representatives must adapt to the senate, because it must pass a version of the budget that is acceptable to the senate , and should not take... some ideological bills on the budget, which the senate will definitely not approve , and therefore the blame for what has happened, what continues to happen, since the allocation for aid to ukraine has not been approved, but rests entirely on this group of far-right

republican, republican members of the house of representatives. mr. eisenberg, in june, the deputy press secretary of the ministry of defense , shas abrina singh, reported on the recalculation of the real cost of the aid. provided by the united states to ukraine in 2022-2023 and since then it has announced that it turned out that the calculations were incorrect by 6.2 billion dollars, that is, these are actually additional funds that appeared after this calculation, which could have been sent to help ukraine. what is the fate of this money now, can the us government dispose of it to, for example , finance aid to ukraine for the period as long as it will last... the process of adopting the budget, this money is already being used, it turned out that such an incorrect calculation happened because they took into account at the wrong prices, the weapons it is transferring were transferred to ukraine directly from

bases of the pentagon, from the bases of the american army, because they calculated its today's value, according to the rules, it was necessary to calculate its value, how much it was worth when it was bought. that is, they bought it earlier today, well, everything is more expensive, and inflation is more expensive today, that's why they calculated incorrectly and calculated that they needed more money than they actually needed, that's why these 6.2 billion additional appeared, as far as i understand, the administration just uses them, what i heard today seems to be the same sabrina sink said about it, there remains a billion 600 million dollars. thank you for your time and clarification. igor eisenberg, a professor at new york university, was with us on a live video call and he urges us not to dramatize the situation with the vote in

the senate, which took place just a few minutes ago, in fact, and as a result of which the document on the temporary financing of governmental expenses for 45 days, and there is no clause about assistance in it. ukraine. yes, this bill is most likely will be signed by biden, but from monday the americans will look for opportunities to still help ukraine and allocate funds. on september 21, the president of the united states, joe biden, announced a new military aid package for ukraine in the amount of 325 million dollars. it is aimed at strengthening the air defense of ukraine and will include , in particular, cluster munitions, short-range air defense systems. anti-tank weapons. in general, the united states of america has been the leader in supporting ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war with russia.

let's see more about what the western partners gave us and what we can expect in the next story. the joe biden administration allocated the first aid to ukraine on february 25, 2022. then it was valued at 350 million dollars. and in just a few days, we received a second package of military aid from the united states worth more than 1 billion dollars, which included jezhevelin anti-tank systems, grenade launchers, rifles, machine guns, helmets, body armor, armor-piercing systems, at4 systems and other weapons. next. month in april on the 22nd, the united states announced that it was ready to give us eight m37 fighter jets, 40,000 artillery ammunition, 11 mi-17 helicopters, 200 armored personnel carriers, counter-artillery radars, and in total, this support cost $800 million. already on may 19, our western partners announced another aid of 100 million dollars. that's how much 18-15mm howitzers cost, 18 tactical vehicles for towing howitzers. three anti-artillery radars, field equipment and spare parts for it, then

june, and then the states immediately announced three aid packages for 700 million, 1 billion and 450 million dollars. then we received the first four haimers with ammunition, as well as jezheveline missiles, shells, mi-17 helicopters, tactical vehicles, 40,000 artillery pieces, spare parts and other equipment. on july 1 , the pentagon announced that it is ready to hand over weapons to us... worth $820 million - two anti-aircraft missile systems from nasa. dolmers ammunition up to 150,000 artillery pieces, four additional anti-artillery radars, and in august the united states allocated four large packages of military aid, august 1, 550 million, 8 august - 1 billion, on august 19, 775 million and on august 24, 2.980 million dollars.

in september 22, the amount of us military aid to ukraine amounted to almost 3 billion dollars, then the states transferred to us hymars missile systems and ammunition, including high-speed anti-radar missiles harm, remote anti-tank mines, armored vehicles, ammunition, shells, armored multi-purpose vehicles, and also trucks, trailers and equipment for towing weapons, radars of various types, anti -drone systems. we received the next package of military aid dollars already in october, and in november, military aid to ukraine was estimated at 1 billion/2 million dollars. on november 23, the pentagon announced that it was transferring $400 million worth of weapons to the u.s. army, including ammunition for hymers and nasams, 150 heavy machine guns, 200 high-precision artillery shells, thousands of mortar shells, anti-radiation missiles, 150 military suvs, more than 100 light tactical ammunition for small

arms and 200 generators, as well as spare parts for howitzers, and in december the aid package from sha was estimated at 1 billion 850 million dollars. most the us military aid package was allocated to us on january 6, it was estimated at 3 billion 750 million dollars. assistance included bradley infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, artillery shells of various calibers, wheeled vehicles, and ammunition for the high. as well as anti-tank missiles, cartridges, rifles and other weapons. we received almost $5 billion in aid from the united states at the end of january and the beginning of february 23rd. ukraine received $750 million in aid from the united states already in march. then the states transferred to us a large amount of ammunition to the american systems, which already working at the front. in april, the support of the united states was worth 2.9 billion, and in may it was almost 2.2 billion. in june. 2.9 billion

dollars. on july 25, 2023, the united states announced a new package of military aid to ukraine in the amount of 400 million. the next military aid to ukraine included additional ammunition for patriot systems, nasa tagmars, as well as anti-aircraft complexes, anti-tank complexes, armored personnel carriers, stryker and much more. in august, sha announced the allocation of two packages of military aid for 200 and 250. dollars, in september there were three of them, for 665 million, 600 million and 325 million dollars. the european bank for reconstruction and development maintained its may forecast for the growth of ukraine's economy for 23-24 years. this is stated in the regional economic outlook updates for september 2023. analysts predict gdp growth of 3% next year, despite the fact that russia's war against ukraine will continue with its current intensity. as i mentioned, according to the state statistics, the real

gross domestic product in the second quarter this year increased by 19.5% compared to the second quarter of last year. hryhoriy kukuruza, economist akluk joins our broadcast. mr. grigory, we congratulate you. good night good night. good night. mr. grigory, therefore, in 2024, ukraine expects to receive from our westerners. partners , exactly the same amount of funding as in 2023, and according to preliminary estimates, it is 42.8 million dollars, and we expect from the united states of america. about 13 billion. just a few minutes ago, we talked with the representative of the united states of america, we we know that alarming news is coming from the united states, that the congress and the senate have voted for a bill on

financing the government, but there is no support and allocation of financial aid for ukraine, and although we understand that we should also expect good news. that the americans will still consider providing financial aid to ukraine, but what awaits the ukrainian economy if we do not receive this money? well, look, the us plays a key role, but still note that, even the last one, yes, this list of proposed reforms, from the side, after all, it is not from the side of the embassy, ​​it is not from the side of the imf, it is not from the side of the european commission, it would be unified. the position of the donors, that is, it seems to me that, well, here it is wider , this is the financial ramstein, the financial coalition for the financing of ukraine, this is also canada, this is also international financial institutions, such as the imf, the world bank, that is, well, if, maybe it is not quite professional, but yes, purely in

everyday terms, if somewhere one, well, one of the partners drops out due to personal or temporary factors, then simply other partners increase their share. in terms of funding, and if temporarily for a number of reasons it falls somewhere, well, the usa, or grants or, then mostly from russia, by the way, these are grants, and funding from the european commission is increasing , that is, one way or another, compensation, compensatory mechanisms of prediction, but , look, they, they are not foreseen in practice, this is the same situation, it was absolutely difficult in may, 2022, when the war, no one understood the duration, international partners had not yet laid down there, well, no funds for financing, and in june 2022 the ministry of finance had to pay the national bank 120 billion uah, and simply directly finance all military expenses, and it seemed to everyone that this was a road to

nowhere, then somehow, around july and august, they already reached stable financing, yes, we remember there minister f, we need approximately 3-3 billion dollars every month, and they appeared somewhere in the budgets of our international partners, here is a similar situation, here, in principle, we proceed from a minimum estimate of our needs in order to survive and somewhere these funds, well between international partners find themselves. mr. grigory, if you imagine the worst scenario, then if there is a deficit where ukraine can borrow money to finance public expenditures, they will take more. local budgets, are taxes going to be raised, are spending going to be cut, are there going to be threats to pay raises and pensions, and before you answer, i'd like to draw the attention of our viewers to the air alert map, because just a few minutes ago we were watching strikes being announced in

the regions , where there was anxiety, but now again danger for kherson, zaporizhzhya, dnipropetrovsk, mykolaiv, kirovohrad and cherkasy regions, the air force of the armed forces of ukraine informs that there is a missile danger in kirovohrad and kherson and mykolaiv regions, so please, dear viewers, take care of your own safety. gregory mr. grigory, so where will we get the money to cover the deficit, if there is one, look , if we are talking about internal revenues, the first thing is of course that the redirection is now pdfo, there is a little less than these 94 billion hryvnias. what else is increasing under there, as far as it has been possible to monitor so far, this reverse subsidy is canceled, i.e. the first is the redirection of pfo funds to the central, well, to the state budget, the second is not planned yet, but in general for communication, if there is a difficult

situation at all, then internal revenues , of course, that the increase in the vat rate, the increase in the pdf rate, these are, well, profiled. distant deputies called it as the second, second potentially step after the redirection, after the redirection pdf. as for coverage, ah, well, coverage of the deficit, it is difficult to find these funds on the domestic market, that is , redirecting the liquidity of the banking system, this is probably step number three, it will be so voluntary and forced that everyone is bought from the vdp , all the funds are directed to financing, look, after all, well, we have enough for now, yes, there is a cushion of stability, for this, well, a buffer for financing state expenditures, and well, no no no... despite the temporary these difficulties in financing from the usa, well, even here reserves are 41.7, now they are a little less

than 40.5 billion dollars, well, we are in the worst time for us in july 22, it was 22 there, with something billions billions of dollars, that is, also according to gold and lyut reserves in currency, ah we have quite a reserve of liquidity for a full year, well, in terms of coverage, and in principle , in terms of coverage, interventions are both a and a, well, in terms of internal financing, it’s a little more liquid there, but three months is definitely a reserve, in the near future, as expected , there will be a vote in the verkhovna rada, a vote on the project the law on the budget for 2024, what macro forecast is reflected in this project and what risks do you personally see for the implementation of this budget, look, i am dividing the evaluations of the profiles that, well, being reviewed in the upward direction and incomes and expenses,

an absolutely normal situation, as well as in 23, well, by a little bit, let’s say, they incorrectly estimated the end of the hostilities, but by the end of june everything will definitely end, accordingly they underestimated military expenditures, it was a big, big mistake, then we increased them twice in the spring there seems to be half a trillion and now another 300 billion and maybe there will be more increases. expenditures until the end of the year, that is, we will most likely have to increase the expenditure and , accordingly, the revenue part, the situation is really quite difficult, for many centuries the state budget has had to use funds from local budgets against the regulations, somewhere the single treasury account is sinking, somewhere well, some expenses do not go through, but for now at least somehow yes, there, well, it is functioning, an extremely optimistic forecast for

real gdp is embedded, i think that it is, well, as a result, there is quite a positive situation, the first or second quarter, our first quarter, on average, well, there was a market estimate, our estimate was -18% year-on -year the decline that will continue turned out to be -10.5, and the second quarter, well, you showed it before my inclusion, that 19%, was expected to be approximately +10, that is, the first two quarters the situation is much better than expected, the third quarter most likely it will also be preserved due to a high harvest, if there are specialized associations, there is a ukrainian one the grain association estimated, it seems, about 67-70 million tons, now their latest estimate is 80.5 million tons, our record harvest before the war, it was 100, in total, well, 100 million tons, ah yes, this year. they save the weather conditions, yes, the situation in terms of logistics is worse, and there is still a high gap in the price of grain in ukraine and

abroad, because it is expensive to take it abroad, it is expensive, whether by truck or by rail, it is much more expensive than by sea , but the harvest in itself, of course, what about these statistics for the third quarter as well will improve, and also from the important last assessment of the national bank, that they do not, well, monitor the asset for the import of power equipment, as far as i understand, it is not about generators, because there the cost is about three times higher than the cost of electricity generation, it is probably about transformers , ah, which are not necessary in the case of missile attacks , they estimate a potential deficit of electricity there of only 5%, but in terms of demand, in the first quarter of 2023, it was -15, and therefore, the situation even by electron for the fourth quarter, according to the national bank's assessment, it is still

quite good, that is, in principle, we can say that the russian attacks on the ukrainian energy sector, which have already begun, we also see that the ukrainian energy sector is approaching the new heating season in such a bad way in the state it was at the beginning of last autumn, in principle, it will not affect the gdp too much. well if, yes, so far, so far according to current estimates, what is visible from the import of energy equipment, yes, that is, it was possible, it was possible to form a certain reserve of capacity, let's say this, and accordingly, for this year the real estimate is plus 3%, for the next year according to the law on the budget plus 5%, and in principle it looks quite realistic in reality, and according to the forecasts of the ministry of economics, the inflation of goods and services coincides with it as well will slow down from 16% to

13.8 next year due to what, how will we feel it? this infection in our country, in my subjective opinion, goes synchronously with the countries of the main trading partners, especially in what is consumer inflation, it is a basket of final goods and services, where the raw materials are low enough, conditionally, you have milk there and other ready-made food products there, well, yes, there is 40% in the consumer basket of ukraine, it ’s all plus or minus the same price as with poland, with romania , with with well with the nearest countries, neighbors with with the eurozone, and accordingly, if inflation is slowing down there, in europe , due to, yes, a tight monetary policy, ah, inflation is rapidly slowing down, well, in us, it is also in us, also we are within this same effect, and plus we are well, for the same reason, for a long time we received a high discount rate of 25%, only in the last

two months it was reduced to 20, and it is still there by 13% compared to the consumer price index, already in august we came out, it seems, by 8.6% year to year, i.e. by the end of the year, we are there, well, the rate of inflation is slowing down much more than is expected so far, and so far the forecast predicts the state of the economy, and what are the prices, what numbers are included in the 24th budget and how much money will go for their service? look, no, no, no, i won't say, i remember that it's state the debt is approximately 93-96% of gdp. we leave aggregate and both internal and external. i would actually reject the internal ones, it is about a quarter of the total debt, because it is, well, it is a mutual offset, it is a debt actually owed to the national bank, to the state banks, there are enough, enough, few enough private holders, that is, these funds have been paid and in the summer, the state banks paid them with dividends, or the national

bank recalculated its profit, so we are still talking about netting here, the external debt is growing, but not so catastrophically. that is, our indicators are better than there in the euro, in the eurozone, in countries where there is no war , they simply used debt instruments more actively somewhere to stimulate the economy, the program of cooperation of ukraine with the international monetary fund dictates the implementation of a two-stage restructuring of the external debt in 2024 and 26- years, and how will it happen? i'll be honest, no , i haven't followed up on the restructuring account , so far we see from the eurobonds that the market expects a re-restructuring of the eurobonds there , yes, probably in august 24th, well, if only such a positive situation that we will have enough of our own funds to service eurobonds in particular, we simply see from the market assessment that there is none, this is the only thing i can

say if we look at the 2023 budget and the draft budget. in 2024, what, shall we say, are the key differences between them that you could point out? look, a little bit, our budget is now inextricably linked with the balance of payments, we often see that the main thesis of economists now is that there is a very high gap between exports and imports, in fact in two times, and we estimate exports for the 24th year to be approximately 32 billion, imports to be 65, and such a ratio for khatsit of the trade balance to gdp, it has never been there in the history of ukraine, and why, well, if so, how is it related with the budget, it is absolutely normal that we consume twice as much as we export , we cover all of this with funds from international partners, some of them are shore-based, some are irrevocable grants, but in approximately this proportion, that’s it well,

the military structure of the ukrainian economy, it is no... maybe it will change, but just like, well, the same military structure was there approximately in great britain, in france, during the second world war with the same share of public expenditure, but they covered it there in other ways, no, no, no they had international partners who would support them, whether it was an inflation tax or a higher tax burden, domestically we were lucky, we managed not to raise taxes during the war, on the contrary, somewhere in the first period there were tax benefits, a- well, not even now none of the taxes have yet been increased , there has been no rate increase, respectively, well, it's all like that, you know, you have a complex structure, on the one hand, a high budget deficit, with this high budget deficit, international engagements are financed and the balance of payments deficit, and