[000:00:00;00] something was flying, if something was flying, it would already be clear, well, because some specific flight parameters would have already been discussed there, and yes, well, you understand, here too, by the way, if we are talking about some kind of critical thinking, well, forgive me, well vanguards, the russians have this system, the dagger is already in principle, you know, they are even rethinking its use in the war against us, and the chinese are even rethinking the use of the dagger against us, well, that is, it is a proven working system, there is even a new carrier for the dagger, and compare about those dangerous ones... systems of this development, thank god it has not yet gone beyond the conceptual framework , forgive me, in my opinion, it was a bend, well, actually in the nato classification, these missiles are called skyfall, there are also letters, numbers and skyfall, but if these tests were tracked by the united states aircraft that you mentioned, this surely means that any test , including nuclear weapons, is very difficult to prevent, it is unlikely that they will go unnoticed, but what does this change for the

united states itself , such tracking as russia is testing its new missiles, well, or more precisely, tracking, tracking to check that they have not tested missiles, well , listen, the enemy must be monitored, in this case there, what is the fact that somewhere there nato has assigned a codification, maybe nothing else not to mention, because even on an2, a corn plant, and that is the nato codification , although i don’t remember, but it’s just there, all soviet-type passenger aircraft had their own nato codification, well, purely because these aircraft were then used as vip. let's say vip boards for transportation admirals, well, that is, everything is assigned the nato codification, and the fact that they just gave the codification there does not mean that it is already a working model, you know, just from the other side, if the enemy is working on some robot, on some weapon system, we are working under which is very persistent, because listen, well, 13 launches were carried out over a period of three to two years , the same had to be done to make 13 different samples, or at least a few, they

even managed to make only... two on burevesnik as many as 13, and more tests in the 19th year, i.e., the russians demonstrated in an attempt to bring this borevesnik to completion, well, persistence is still not visible, well, it is clear that the whole civilized world will be watching to understand how they will bring this missile to the end or no, because on the other hand, suddenly, if it happens that it will fly, as the russians planned, but then the whole thing will fall on the head of someone with a nuclear reactor, well, it will not be good for anyone, so we have to go ahead. from such stories, but i will repeat once again, if even already, let's say this, at the level of journalistic publications there, it is recorded that they flew for two weeks and did not see anything, and there are only assumptions, well, there, but there, that is, the notification, the notification over the barents sea is valid until october 6 , maybe we'll see, well, that is, something like the happiness of the whole civilized world of the russians went wrong here , ugh, well, then let's add ivan to other missiles, because today a video will be distributed on the network, allegedly using a modernized

ukrainian. s-200 missiles, but it is not known for sure whether it is the s-200 or where exactly it was was launched when these shots were taken, but many assume that this is the s-200, a modernized missile, can you confirm or question from these videos that this is the modernized, s-200, and actually, what is its modernization , well, you know, in this case there is something, well, if it looks like a 5v-27 to c200 rocket, is launched from an installation similar to 5. like a 5v 27 to c200 and takes off in about the same way, well, it looks like a 5v-27 rocket to the s200 complex, the question here is simply whose missile it was, well, you know, we have a lot of such here there were interesting legends from the submission of the russian ministry of defense, as if we have a c200, we can use it to hit ground targets, and there it is, that such a missile can reach moscow, but there is an even more specific detail, in general, the zrks200 has a passport firing range of 240 km ,

even actually more than the patriot, and here, let's say, what we can see on the video, unknown people, of unknown nationality, let's say, were able to solve the basic problem of the s200 complex, that is, its insane dimensions, well, because there, the launchers that we had, think of it, resembled small miniatures , well, because this launcher was supposed to roll along the rails, just like a train and then shoot back, well, that is, it was such a dangerous story, and here are the people, let’s say so , people... of an unknown nationality were able to make the launcher for it more compact, which is already good in principle, but let's say this, if we had such missiles, well , we would have used them for something like this, you know, in style massacres of the bryansk air defense forces, well, how about later the air force did not hint, it was still a success of our soldiers, clearly pak-2 missiles with a firing range of 160 km were used, and here let's imagine, this is such a powerful thing, there, in general, the toga-size indicators give

more than that of iskander. because the starting mass of iskander seems to be 3.8, and there it is 3.3 , well, to use such a rocket in order to , well, you know, to stomp somewhere, for example , the russian mih 31, which is not flying somewhere, or for example somewhere... ... in the front-line zone to attack a russian bomber, which drops guided aerial bombs on our front-line cities, but i think that if we really had these missiles for the s200 complexes, which could still be launched from larger or smaller launchers, i think that they would be used precisely from with such a defensive purpose , that is, rather to make an excuse for the russians, to write another obituary on their lchikovichno tebi polto obrat, than to try to hit their objects there, who needs them there, we have drones, thank god. it's got everything, or modernized neptunes, but then again, that's if we had them such rockets, and so on that video, well, we see that yes, there is a rocket belonging to the 200 complex , but the nationality of this complex and the people who filmed it and who are depicted in the video is unknown, suddenly they are

poles in general, they have such there are still complexes, the bulgarians still have complexes, the azerbaijanis still have complexes, let’s get out of this , let’s say so, for some reasons, then we will wait for official information, maybe something will be known about the withdrawal of defense from the general staff, ivan, thank you for broadcast by ivan karychevskyi, an analyst of the military portal defense press was in direct contact with us. thank you. well, then we talk about the situation at the front with the former commander of maidar and public activist yevhen dykiy joins the broadcast. mr. yevgeny, my greetings. good evening. good evening. glory to ukraine. glory to heroes. let's first take a look at the front line in general, what kind of dynamics can we talk about, where are the occupiers currently trying to counterattack more, where are they maintaining a static defense, or has it changed. the last days, let's say, yes, the arrangement of forces, nothing fundamental happened in the last days, no has changed, this does not mean that there is a safe haven, not at all, just the opposite, well, sorry

for slang, a terrible cut, but it is absolutely there, geographically, where it was a week ago and two weeks ago, in fact, it is a key battle of the current stage war is a battle for the tokhmak, because it is quite clear that if, unfortunately, i have to emphasize the word if, no one has guaranteed us that we will be able to take the tokhmak, but if we manage to take the tokhmak, then just a whole series of events becomes completely predictable , we can say not fleeting, namely our access to the sea of ​​azov, the liberation of berdyansk and melitopol, well, in this case, crimea actually becomes an island , and as an island it is very, very, very vulnerable to our strikes, the problem is that the russians understand this no worse than we do with you, and that's why they have a fight now, from their side, what is called the last and decisive battle, they threw there, well, almost all the available reserves and resources, in particular, only in the last month, four

airborne divisions went there, can you imagine, four airborne divisions, let me remind you that the airborne troops are considered the elite of the russian army, well, the elite is not the elite, but in any case, these are units where a significant part of contract workers, professionals, and not only mobs , but they were already talked about in mobs, but still, these are largely professional units , and the four divisions are concentrated only on this one, on this one area of ​​tokmat, and that’s a plus to those units that were there before , that is, to the usual infantry, artillery, etc., according to some data, of these four airborne divisions, two are no longer there, but one way or another, it is a very serious enemy that opposes our offensive there and both sides understand how high the stakes are, that in the tokmak itself it is decided that it is far , that the battle for tokmak is absolutely not about tokmak, but it is actually about azov and

the crimea, and therefore the main, actually, let's say this, the main tension is there, because of this , the positions of our enemies near bakhmut were slightly weakened, they were forced to reserves from there transfer it to the tokhmat section and there we are gradually squeezing and squeezing them, on the other hand, a certain intrigue persists in the north, where actually, well, if you remember, at one time there was a lot of news from the kupyansk-lyman line, because first on lymanska section of this line, and then on kupyanska, there were very intensive attempts by the russians to break through our defense line, their offensive, from the beginning. showed that in fact this is the smartest thing that the russian generals did this summer, this is this diversionary strike, on the line kupyansk-lyman, uh, i don't think they were so naive as to think that someone would give them

either kupyansk or lyman, but they understood very well that in order to hold the line of defense there, we would have to transfer reserves there, well there was no chance of holding this line against the hundred thousand band which our enemies had assembled. to hold it with the two or three brigades that had been stationed there since last autumn. it is clear that part of the brigades, which were preparing specifically for the offensive to break through this so-called surovykin line in the south, instead. it happened right from those nato training grounds, where they were prepared, they had to be thrown directly from there into the defense, into the trenches near kupyansk. and then, if you remember, the last month, there was almost no news from there, the fact is that it turned out that playing this game, who will deceive whose reserves, can be played by two, and a month ago, the russians had to remove from under the lyman and from near kupensk, all units of the so-called lnnf. well, no matter how we feel about these people,

but there is an objective reality, these are people who have already been fighting against us for eight years, that is, this people, first of all, are highly motivated, they have nothing to lose, they know that for us they are not just there, well, an enemy army, a foreign one, but for us they are traitors, our former citizens, but they also know that for russia they are strangers, they are not their citizens, initially, they are like that, some kind of, let's say, war booty, trophy. therefore, of course, they are primarily used, but one way or another, these are highly motivated people who have eight years of military experience, and so these leneriv units were all removed from there and was urgently transferred to the south, to keep the defense right on the suravikin line, and after that it turned out that although the total number of russian troops there did not change that much, but without these eleneriv units, their offensive simply advanced, they

actually stood for a month , and in the meantime, they replaced these elenerians with the so-called 25th army, why i say so-called, because it is a newly formed army, and according to the plan, it was only supposed to recruit a staff by the end of october, after that to go through a normal and correct adjustment and not before december to be used at the front. instead, this army is uncoordinated and staffed at about 50% of the staff, but by now it has already arrived from there, but for the last month they have been deploying these ill-formed units of the 25th army there, in order to replace with them this so-called second army corps lpr, and for now this deployment is complete, for now this underformed 25th army, at least everything that they were able to bring with it, it is all ready for battle, and therefore in the coming days we expect that there will be a very serious from their side an attempt to renew.

offensive actions, well, actually, will this newly mobilized 25th army be able to replace the eleneriv veterans, well, that's actually , well, somewhere, i think, the next week will show us, it's interesting, we'll follow the events in the north, i wanted to return to afternoon, that is, about the zaporizhia direction, as the last decisive battle, and you mentioned that for the russian army, the institute for the study of war pays just as much attention to the zaporizhia direction, the day before it was reported that the ukrainian troops there part of the trenches and trenches, today they corrected themselves and said that no, the defense forces returned these positions to themselves, somewhere between september 12 and 17, they are receiving them now, and in general, this system of trenches, the network of trenches, how important it is in our way of the ukrainian army to the takmak you are talking about, and how vulnerable are the russian troops without these trenches? here everything is very simple, while they are sitting in these trenches, we cannot go further, the trench itself. not valuable in themselves, trenches are valuable to those who

sit in them and how well they are defended, but for those who sit in them, trenches are protection from our shells, first of all , the actual task of a trench is to preserve the life of the one sitting in it, and accordingly , the one who advances is forced to go without a trench on open ground when to feel on his stomach, just in body armor, when he rises to his full height and runs under fire, unfortunately, he has to do that, and then he has to jump all the enemy trenches and actually finish this job already with a machine gun in his hands, that's why, well, in general this transition of hobby positions from hand to hand is absolutely normal there practice, to be honest, well, with all due respect to the institute for the study of war, well, they get a little lost in the little things and details, but the point is that there is a constant, you know, how to say, a pendulum or a swing, i even of my own assault experience of the 14th year, i can say that to enter the moscow positions.

actually capturing them is about 10% of the work, but it is much more difficult to hold on to them further , because they are protected by a certain, let's say, limited number of people, but then, when it becomes known that, oh, we have lost some area, then they throw reserves of style from there, they throw precisely reserves of style to fight back these positions, and accordingly, if possible, destroy all those who occupied them before that, that is , things like this, when we are enemy trenches, then the enemy makes a counterattack and even on some time pushes them back, and then we do a second step again, we repel them again, this is absolutely normal practice. this war, well , they don't fight in any other way there. unfortunately, nothing has changed, not that from the second world war, even from the first world war, but with everyone there drones, satellite images and other technological innovations, all the same, until an ordinary simple soldier

, an infantryman jumped into a trench with a machine gun and secured himself in it, well, without this, in fact , there is no progress either from our side or from theirs, they heard ? and the ministry of defense of great britain, they say that the armed forces actually defeated the fleet of the russian federation in the black sea, and they compare these successes, in particular with the kharkiv breakthrough, as a model of success, and. in general, in your opinion, how can this affect the course on the course of the russian-ukrainian war, and actually, this is the task of the strikes on the black sea fleet of russia, or is it also preparation, only from the other side, of the advance on the takmak, which you mentioned. no, we can’t touch tokhmakaz yet, after all, in the sea of ​​azov we still can’t really get them, well, there was one unique case when we managed to get one of our last u-point missiles to get their big landing ship right in the port in berdyansk, but this is still the exception and not the rule at the very

beginning of the war, so and so, that is, still so far the war is being fought in the black sea, not in the azov sea, but in the black sea we really, we have achieved, well, in fact, it is impossible. as a result, for the first time in history, a side in the war that actually does not have a navy itself, because even at the beginning of the war we had , well, you know, a tiny semblance of a navy, there is such, you know, there is 5% of what could to be called the navy, and we lost this 5% on the first day of the war, but this is how a country that does not have a navy got away with it, the navy of another country is much more powerful, actually... well, really powerful even by world standards, to actually neutralize it, there is a huge water area where they don’t even risk rushing, and then there is a water area where they quickly jump out to launch missiles and then immediately flee to the most protected bays in novorossiysk and

sevastopol , and moreover, and even in these bays, they still turned out to be vulnerable , we get them there too, in fact, we really, well , not completely... we still zeroed out the black sea fleet of russia as such, but we have already neutralized it to a very large extent , that is, its effectiveness activity now, well, this is probably 5% of what the russians were counting on from the beginning, it is interesting, but in russia, they are now declaring that there are no plans for additional mobilization, shoigu says that 50,000 allegedly signed a contract only in september, since the beginning of the year, there are 335,000 of them in general, and can we estimate how much these... numbers correspond to reality, is it even possible to estimate the human resource on the part of the occupiers, analyzing the situation at the front, it is possible to estimate where to start, from a good point or worse? on your judgment, well, look at it from a positive point of view, the fact is that at the front they really

have a big problem with people, but it may seem strange, they have a 420,000-strong contingent deployed in our occupied territories. but at the same time, in reality, they already have a really acute deficit. as a matter of fact, we already heard it with you today. please note that in order to restrain our advance near tokmak, they had to stop their advance near kupynsk. that is, both, and that, at the same time, they are not capable, even, that is, even defensive actions on in the south and offensive in the north, they could not lead for at least a month until they brought up the so-called 25th army and what they saw what it was good for. so, when they threw over those four airs. airborne divisions under the tokmak, this is actually their last reserve, airborne troops, put them in the trenches just like ordinary ordinary infantry to defend against our offensive, well, this is the last possible use of them, this is absolutely wrong from the point of view of all the military

doctrines, well before that we saw a lot signalers, in this regard, starting from the time when they were shooting paratroopers from the left bank of the kherson region and pulling part-time jobs, and in the end... as a cherry on top, you remember this story, when strategic bombers landed on our side at the soltse airfield. well, at the same time, our ukrainians got these planes, well, simple , small copters that fly a maximum of a couple of tens of kilometers, that is, roughly speaking , they shot them from a nearby forest, and of course the russians wondered how they came to life such, and it turned out that at the airfield soltsi, where there are strategic bombers. actually, the carriers of nuclear weapons, so airfield security is carried out by airmen. in the time free from aircraft maintenance, kalashnikovs are distributed to the airmen and placed on the perimeter, and in general , there is a whole mechanized security battalion for each such airfield in the state , so it turned out that this mechanized battalion

has been at the front since july, so if they remove the security from nuclear airfields, this is an indicator of how much they lack people here at the front now, but they already have within the borders of the front is what is called the trishkin kaftan in russian, it is when in order to sew the right sleeve, you have to cut it off from the left, this was good news, worse news concerns a slightly more distant perspective. the fact is that no matter what shoigu is saying now, there has already been a leak, his order to mobilize 2,000 new mobs is known, this is an order, if i am not mistaken, from september 11, that is, now this mobilization is already in full swing, and here it is necessary to understand that there are two different figures, one figure is the total mobilization resource of russia federation, well, it's simplified, for, let's say, such a general understanding of the situation, this general... course can be considered incomplete, because it's several million people, but one way or another,

they have several million cannon fodder in stock, but what's next the second figure is the capacity of their mobilization system, that is, how much they can recruit at once, so that it all does not collapse, and how much time they need for these people to come to the front, and from there we already have the experience of their last autumn's mobilization, when they set a bar for themselves to collect... 450,000, they collected about 400 , and the system collapsed at that point, when they were simply thrown out in the forest without tents, when there was nothing to feed them physically, and so on, they took this into account, and now our gur evaluates their mobilization capacity is somewhere in the range of 200-250,000 at one time, for one mobilization cycle, so to speak, and this order, the shoigu about 2,000, it completely fits into this, that is, they themselves also... estimated that more than 2,000 at the same time , they are not

capable of mobilizing, the cycle continues from being received by a person the summons to its appearance at our front should normally take about six months, well, taking into account that everything is on fire in them and they will be killing for preparation, then it is 3-4 months, so that the tubilization, which we saw, here is this order from september 11, october, november, december, roughly speaking, in january we will see these new mobs at the front, well, what if, what mobilization resource is there in ukraine, because we talked a lot yesterday, in particular , they discussed the statement of ben wallace, who allegedly advised zelensky in his column to withdraw attention, whether to strengthen mobilization, including at the expense of younger ukrainians. considering the bad news you gave at the end, about the big one anyway. of human resources in russia, which is of course related to the population, and what can ukraine

oppose, whether it will be necessary to resort to increased mobilization at the expense of younger ukrainians, in your opinion, in my opinion, it is definitely necessary, and it should be done already, yes , it is very unpleasant, but we have to admit it, if we do we want to win this war, not lose, and by the way, let me remind you that there is no intermediate option, there is no option to freeze... the conflict, to come to an agreement somehow, no, actually russia will not go for it, not even, not even, if suddenly we decided that, god be with him, we give up the occupied territories, we go to the finnish option there or the korean option, as they call it there , russia will no longer go, russia absolutely does not hide that any delay on the front, any lull , they will use exclusively to prepare the next offensive, and that they believe that without a final solution to ukraine. question, moreover , in the same sense as the concept of the final solution was used by adolf hitler. so, without a final solution to the ukrainian issue, they

cannot live peacefully. so, that's why we need to understand that our war is definitely for someone's victory, either ours or theirs. and if we are still talking about our victory, then in my opinion we should at least score a comparable amount to what they score, but in reality we should score more. for... a comparable number to what they gain - it is simply to compensate, it is simply to balance the efforts of the two sides, but we are not satisfied with balancing, we need to win, that is, to push them out of our territories, if possible, by destroying them, rendering their army incapacitated , so in my opinion, if they now have a mobilization wave of 2,000, then excuse me, we need to set a bar of half a million for the next six months, but in general, if we could recruit for another six months or a year... then we simply physically endured orcs from our territory. it is necessary here to understand that there are two different resources, there is a

human resource and there is a military-technical resource. we are equal in terms of military and technical resources. we are completely dependent on our western allies, they supply it to us, they supply it better, they supply it worse, we are very dissatisfied with the way they supply it, although in fact, they had the right not to supply it at all, so it is not the fault of the western allies that we did not prepare for this for eight years war, they just screwed everything right up to the last day inclusive, and then asked for help, so let's not forget this when we criticize the same biden, but yes, in fact, now we are completely dependent on what kind of cockroaches he has in his head, what kind of ghostly red lines he drew there, but god be with him, it’s all about iron, the allies did not give us people and will never give us people we have to give, if we need our country, we have to fight and die for it, this is an axiom, sorry, someone likes it, someone does not like it, but this is the basic condition with which this war began and with which it will end, and whatever there was no, no matter how much we say about better motivation

of our soldiers, about better training. at least those who are already being prepared, that is, we do not mention the preparation of the first wave of mobilization, but no matter how we say that we have a certain technological advantage due to the fact that nato weapons are much better, unfortunately, there are fewer of them, but it is really better than ork, there are no questions here, yes, but there are things where simply quantity can be compensated only by quantity, and an advantage can also be gained only by quantity, unfortunately, this is an objective reality, and this reality is special. precisely in such an infantry war as is happening now, when i hear such phrases as drone war, there is something else, well, i sigh heavily, because it was, is and remains an infantry war, precisely a war of soldiers, of yesterday's civilian mobs, and all the drones there and so on, it’s just helpful to them, and i’m sorry, without a sufficient number of these mobs, we won’t win the war,

and about age, by the way, oles says there that the average age there is 40 plus, well, i don’t have formal statistics , how much in middle age, but as i, for example, i communicate, but from what i know, well, from a personal circle, of course the bubble cannot be extrapolated, any sociologist will say that this is incorrect, but, to be honest, i generally have the impression that the main burden of this war ukrainians bear 50 plus, yes, the same ones, whom shevchuk once called birth weight in his song. the ussr, in fact, with the reincarnation of the ussr in the form of russia, is primarily fought by those still born in the ussr, and this , by the way, has at least two reasons, the first reason is deep, we, here we are, here is my generation and older, we still remember what the ussr actually is, and why we definitely cannot allow its return, and this is despite the fact that putin's

razhka is much worse than the ussr itself. and alena, thank you very much, unfortunately, we have limited time, an extremely interesting conversation , thank you for the detailed analysis of the events at the front and for the interesting analysis, see you again on our broadcasts, yevhen dyky, public activist and former commander of aidaru was with us in direct contact. thank you, additional 50 billion euros for ukraine for the next four years. on this amount the eu wants to increase its multi-year budget, its review was voted today. the european parliament and the council of the european union seem to have also come close to unblocking this issue from the side of hungary. we will learn more details from our colleague elena abramovych, she is with us in direct communication from brussels. olena, i congratulate you, please remind me, in fact, why they decided to increase aid to ukraine, and , in fact, how much time is needed to avoid

these funding interruptions? yes, congratulations, colleagues, well, the question is really becoming more and more common. because as they said today in the european parliament, there is nothing to help ukraine from january 1, and the closer to the end of the year, the more urgent it is if we move towards its solution, and now the european union is really approaching the final decision, so we are talking about revising the seven-year budget of the european union, which they now want to increase due to the fact that it was adopted back in 2020, this was before the full-scale invasion of russia and even before the coronavirus pandemic, and now the member countries have to actually ... increase their contributions to the budget, because the reserve funds from it are already running out, although they were calculated until 2027, and in the updated budget, the amount of regular aid to ukraine is 50 billion euros, and it is calculated for four years, that is, it is money to support the liquidity of the budget, pensions, salaries of civil servants,