[000:00:00;00] if we do not have sufficient military aid, if we do not have any opportunities to respond to one or another of their actions, then they will not be limited only to missile attacks and drones, they will try to advance, advance in those areas that may seem to us very safe, there are a huge number of options, which today may seem fantastic, but nowhere, which is nowhere, disappeared, understand. time, putin's speech at valdai also suggests that they are not abandoning their plans at all, they have a political plan, which they want to carry out, which by and large creates the putin rating that we see, on the other hand, we understand very well that if putin abandons this plan, then he will not be in any danger either, the russians will love him for what he they will be told to love him, this is a completely special

relationship between the ruler and the people, therefore putin , unlike, say, the so-called electoral politicians who think about their future, from biden of chile, from sunak or scholz, in principle, has much more opportunities to maneuver in any direction than politicians who go through real parliamentary or presidential elections. that is , putin himself creates problems for himself, which are then solved by his own actions, according to the plan. administration, this is a huge problem that we have with such, he fights with windmills, he fights with windmills, well, by the way, well, as well as the leaders, you see, as well as the palestinian leaders, right here, too, he mentioned, aria zayden in our talking about how the events happened after the so-called democratic elections in the palestinian authority, but the truth is

in that there were never any more elections, and that whoever won those elections never came to power in the fullness of this palestinian autonomy, so we can imagine that there is, say, a large area of ​​the west bank of the jordan river , and a completely different political force rules there, but the majority of the population may remain sympathizers of hamas, which manages the gas sector, so how can effective management of such a territory then be carried out, this is the first question, the second question, and how how can you negotiate with the leadership of such the territory, which in principle does not represent anyone except himself, the leader of the palestinian authority mahmoud abbas has been there for many years, he has not been elected anywhere, he just gets power there, but he is a very old man, he can leave us at any moment and what then, i tell you, we heard that it was necessary to sign an agreement with him, well, how can you sign an agreement with people who have no

real control over...' only force control, only force control, and society itself is set up like this , as we see it set up, it's on the west bank of the jordan river is now celebrating this whole operation of hamas, they are not thinking there, my god, what a horror, we will not be able to live peacefully, we will not have a normal life, no, they are thinking about the fact that it is necessary to punish those who are in israel, and it wasn't always like that, i know, i remember my impressions from visiting havron, an ancient city, where there is still the famous log of abraham, and where it was, it is always known that it is one of the largest terrorist centers, there is already a guest , yes, petro shevchenko, analyst, postgraduate student of the department of international economics, contact us, mr. petro, more

no, so i'll finish mine. thought, and i saw there, you know, the eastern tourist bazaar, which was completely empty , well, because no one went to havron, i was there in this bazaar alone, alone, in a closed bazaar, and under what conditions did it exist then, it did not existed, it was all closed, but again, if i could imagine how many people were there, selling souvenirs, their goods, there was everything, some income, jobs, and all this was actually destroyed, and destroyed trying to move to the state open confrontation, and it is absolutely obvious to each of the thousands of people that if the israelis and the palestinians really agree on the existence of two peoples, two states, or on the existence of two states, or on some expansion of the functions of political autonomy for

a while, while it can... will formalize some state project, many things can be negotiated, then this means that prosperity begins, in both parts of this agreement, both in the jewish state and among the palestinians. imagine this map of the gas sector, it is a huge strip with a huge the beach, with the ports, these ports could be important ports for many arab countries, they could compete with the ports of lebanon, which are also not working on their own, because there is also no peace agreement, there is a confrontation, and yes, in fact, here we were discussing this history with hezbollah, and hezbollah can of course intervene in the conflict, but the issue is that it now represents one of the political parties of the degraded, actually functioning state formation of the left. and this is also a huge tragedy for all those who live in lebanon. and by the way, an important lesson for everyone to us, because you understand, when we discuss our war in the categories of a long

conflict, we must clearly understand that a long conflict for any country is a degradation of public administration, in principle, anything is possible... think about people's patriotic feelings, but a large number of people do not want to live in a situation of constant war, and thus there are two categories of people, the first category of people - let's say it like this, people are passionate, but there are fewer and fewer of them for purely physical reasons, which believe that they will be here, and they will be to fight and fight and resist, and the second part of people, these are those who have nowhere to go, those who are simply afraid to take a step in the other direction, this is not so much patriotism as

a sense of hopelessness, or if you want such fatalism, but these are two groups people do not create an effective state, we can look at what is happening in the lebanese diasporas outside the borders of lebanon, how people live there. and how they live in lebanon itself, and these are completely two different models of existence, you can look at the history of armenia in a different way, which has been for 30 years in in the conflict with, azerbaijanis, in connection with karabakh, closed borders, with the impossibility of development, but with the need to defend the interests of the karabakh armenians, who have now already left this territory, and here, too , it is very interesting. how to compare, a huge number of people left the country, in that time, as the population of azerbaijan increased there, the population of armenia decreased, and if you compare life in the armenian state with

life in the armenian diaspora, somewhere in california, then someone ironically said that even the budget of this diaspora in california more than the budget of the republic of armenia, and that is why ukraine absolutely does not need to go through such an experience, that's why i dwell on this in this way, in detail, the experience of a long war is not a positive experience, the experience of a long war is that of many people who are initially disposed that they will survive, win, develop further, forces them to leave the country in one way or another, or if you want to go to some kind of internal immigration, well , if everything...' there is no enlightenment, if this is a real problem of such a permanent permanent war , and that's why it's a problem i say that we should not be prepared for the fact that we will have a conflict for 10 years, but we

will definitely win, as many say here, we will win, i do not argue, we can win in 10 years, but the question arises, who will remain among the winners, what will the country look like among the winners, and isn't this a russian scenario by and large , perhaps a russian goal, and a russian goal, of course, because russia has always dragged its enemies into long-term conflicts, for their constant exhaustion and even not exhaustion, but existence in the model of the army state, well, by and large, if we are discussing the middle east today, then the state of the army became the state of israel, that is true, but if we look closely at the geography of the state of israel, we will see that it is with

it is surrounded on all sides by arab countries, which in principle never wanted it to exist there, and it only has access to the sea, which can also be attacked in the event of a military conflict, then in this situation the model of the army state, the enemy’s belief that that we are still here let's be honest, this is an absolutely correct model when compared with the state model of the army of ukraine, i don't understand why, we have peace with the entire western part of the countries that have borders with us in the west, poland, hungary, slovakia, romania, the republic of moldova, while despite all the differences in political positions, they do not wish us harm, so our task is not to create a state , an army, everything, the existence of which will obey the need to solve problems in the north, but simply to move... the western border

further west, further west, and then let the state the army becomes the russian federation, that's all, it 's their task, not ours, we continue to talk about it only after a short informational pause, stay on espresso. turn on well - it's when everything is as you want, click, and now you control the game, bird and you're on a tv show? oh, what is needed. my turn on hundreds of channels, thousands of movies and sports. there are 20% discounts on dolgit cream in the psyllanyk, ban and oskad pharmacies. icelandic moss vitamin c is your power to fight coughs and wheezing. iceland there are discounts on iceland lozenges. 20% in pharmacies podorozhnyk, bam taschad what, vasya, drank an antibiotic, ran into your stomach. and you are a girl. how after the antibiotic,

how did it go? vitaly portnikov is with you and we are talking about the main events of this week. vitaly portnikov and top experts about the most vivid events of the last seven days. our guest will be lieutenant general of allied forces, former national security adviser to the president of the united states, donald trump. herbert mcmaster. current. topics, pressing questions, authoritative comments and forecasts in the informational marathon project with vitaly portnikov, every sunday at 20:10 at espresso. greetings, this is svoboda live on radio svoboda. we have already come to the snake itself. the following shots may shock you. news from the scene, live. kamikaze drone attacks, political analysis. objectively and meaningfully. there is no political season. challenging interviews, reports from the hottest points

of the front. freedom life frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions. we continue the saturday polyclub. ulyana panasiuk, and vitaliy portnikov, today with a red thread, simply pierced our broadcast is about israel, but actually the conflict has a rather long history and it would be strange not to... talk about it, is it possible to draw parallels between this doomsday war that we are talking about today and today's conflict, well, let's see, we in general, we need to understand historically how it all happened, to put it briefly , already at the end of the 30s of the 20th century, the idea of ​​partitioning palestine arose between the jews and the arabs who lived there, and again in jewish and arab circles, because

there were always different views on this one. section, for example, the head of the first government of israel, david bongurion, was a supporter of this division, he wanted the jews to have a state in any territory, and golden did not want it, she believed that a single territory should be left, besides, palestine was a large mandated territory of great britain after of turkey, and from this mandated territory an artificial territory was allocated, which is now called the jordanian khoshemy kingdom, it would also be such a historical territory, there is a biblical territory of jewish resettlement. people and everyone who has been there in jordan knows that you can even climb the mountain from which moses, well, mythologically, the mountain, of course , there is a mountain, there is a myth about this mountain, from which moses surveyed the promised land, in any case in 1948, against the background of the responsibility of the european nations for the holocaust, a decision was made on such a partition, which the jewish community of israel recognized. and arabic is not, during the first war for

independence those borders were formed that allowed israel to remain as an independent state. two areas that were important for the creation of a new arab state of palestine, the gaza strip and the west bank of the jordan river, they came under the control of egypt and jordan, respectively. but no arab state was created there, for the simple reason that the arab leaders were sure that a state should be created on the entire territory of palestine after the expulsion of the jewish people from there. 67 eventually demonstrated that these plans are not... relevant and that the gaza strip and the western west bank will be controlled by israel and not by egypt and jordan. then the arab world dealt a serious, i would say, political blow to israel. it was then

that the palestine liberation organization was created, not before, when the palestinians lived under the rule of egyptian presidents and jordanian monarchs and even, in the case of jordan, sent. their deputies to the parliament of this country, and precisely when these territories came under israeli control, and if we have already mentioned the doomsday war, then there is also an important effect that this war became an impetus for the conclusion of a peace agreement between israel and egypt, i don't think so here it can be compared with the current action of hamas in the gas sector, because the president of egypt, anwar sadad, really did not believe that egypt could win a final victory over israel in such a war, but he wanted such a psychological blow that would allow him to conduct peace negotiations with israel in the future, and by the way, his political program was fully implemented, because after the doomsday war, saddat could afford to negotiate with the americans about such peace

agreements with israel, he visited jerusalem, the peace agreement was signed, it cost sadat his life, but in any case... egypt and israel have been living in a state of cold peace for many decades since then, almost four decades. what was left for the palestinians in this situation, they had essentially to fight independently, to hope for the victory of arab states much less authoritative than egypt, in the end, israel managed to expel them first from jordan, where the leader of the palestinian movement yayas arafat wanted to intercept, jordanian government king hussein bental, and later from lebanon, where the appearance of the palestinians led to a real civil war between the christian and muslim population of the country, which continues to this day, there is no real peace in lebanon, and in fact lebanon was destroyed precisely by the palestinian invasion of its territory, after as

the palestinians were forced to leave jordan, israel, in turn, was looking for ways to weaken yasser. and his influence, which was almost impossible, given that arafat was for many of his supporters almost, such an icon of the national liberation movement, and then, i think, the idea was discovered that arafat, as a secular politician , would not be able to resist the influence of religious groups, if a strong religious party emerged in the palestinian national movement, because until this moment all the palestinian the organizations that cooperated with arafat or recognized his supremacy in the palestinian national movement were secular organizations without such an obvious islamist background, this was the number one mistake, in fact they were supported the creation and strengthening of the hamas movement led by

sheikh ahmad yassin, and this religious movement began to capture the hearts of palestinians quite quickly. and became a real alternative to yazer arafat, because especially in the gas sector, because as you understand, if people are poor, if they do not see a way out of the social situation, if they do not understand how they can really get out of the world they are in, they are much more likely to perceive such radical ultra-religious propaganda than people who live in a more or less normal situation, and yatzer arafat, who did not want negotiate with israel, even after the famous voslo agreements, he could not give them any such normal life prospects , anyway, the day came, it was already after the death of yasser arafat, when the current head of the palestinian authority on the west bank, mahmoud abbas, became his heir.

when hamas overtook fatah, not only in the sympathy of the palestinian street, but also in the parliamentary elections. the problem was that hamas was much more radical. and that it was one thing when it was small a religious group of people, and it's quite another matter when it was a party that enjoys the support of the majority of the population in both parts of the palestinian authority, israel, which already, as we were talking, at the beginning of its policy of withdrawing from, its forces from the gas sector, turned out to be completely helpless from the point of view of the gas sector's ability to deploy its terrorist infrastructure on the territory of this sector. the joint, i would say, efforts of the israelis and the fatah party, which already needed each other, prevented the creation of a hamas government. on the west bank of the jordan river, but in gas everything turned out as hamas wanted, and here it turned out that hamas, which controls

the gas sector, is needed by everyone who hates israel, it is needed by iran, although hamas, sunni fundamentalists, iranians, shia, this absolutely did not interfere with their union and mutual understanding at this stage. it is needed by various radical groups in arabic. in the world, it is needed, by those who try to torpedo israel's agreements with arab countries, it is needed by moscow, the first real government from the civilized countries the world, then russia was part of the civilized world and the president was a frequent member of the group of eight, there was the russian federation, the leaders of hamas after the establishment of a separate government in gaza, which was ... essentially illegitimate because it was not a government of the entire palestinian authority, were coming to moscow and met with the special representative

of the russian president for the near east , deputy minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation mikhail bohdanov, at a certain stage they even had meetings with the head of the russian foreign policy department of serhiy lavov, nowhere in the world, in the civilized world, have hamasites been accepted at such a high level, especially since they are declared a terrorist organization. in the vast majority of such countries, russia also considered them terrorists, but it became clear that russia is ready, within the framework of its special relations with the russian federation, to help and legitimize hamas, and has done a lot in this regard, hamas leaders constantly visit russia, they meet with russian representatives in tehran and beirut, so it's not so easy, to put it mildly, now today's moment, as far as it can be compared with the war, the 1973 doomsday. president anwar sadad, who was a participant

in this war, had a fairly simple goal: to inflict a serious military blow on israel, which would be psychologically so obvious that it would lead to peace negotiations. syrian president hafez assad, who was also a participant in this war. meant that this war could give him back control of the dutch heights previously occupied by israel during the 67 war, and from these positions would allow, or find understanding with israel, or prepare for new attacks in the future. they all had absolutely clear tasks, but in principle these tasks meant maintaining a kind of peaceful coexistence of egypt, in principle, for syria for some time. by the way, this has been the case for a very long time, it continues to this day, even when hafez assad is long gone,

syria is headed by his son bashar. and what could be the goals of hamas? good question, very important. it is obvious that hamas understands very well that it will not be able to deliver a decisive blow to israel. do not think that members of the hamas politburo are idiots. they are not idiots. they are people with... a precise understanding of their tactics and strategy, they also understand that today, october 7 , 2022, the last day of the jewish holidays, the day of simchat torah, i think that one day this war can be name, it will be an eternal psychological irritant for israel and for other countries, and what, what? hamas is by and large not just a political organization that runs the gas sector, it is a seriously corrupt corporation that

has to answer to its sponsors, and now its weight in the arab world and in iran is growing to absolutely still incomprehensible values. thus, no one else is in the iranian parliament, where deputies are now gathering and chanting the death of israel, the death of america, simply. on the air of the meetings of this legislative body, will not even question the need for further economic and military aid to hamas, because the gas sector lives on other people's money, state employees are paid with other people's money, military preparations are sponsored with other people's money, and the gas sector, in fact, big a corporation... of people who live off the donations of those who want them to fight israel and die for it, for that fight, and if they

perform in that fight, they just get the fight. money, and this is the main goal of the head of the hamas politburo, ismail hani, and other leaders of this organization, this is the first important goal, because it extends their power, it allows them to get rich, it allows them to be confident in the strength of their positions, in a situation where they already another radical organization is advancing on the fifth - islamic jihad, and we understand that radicalism does not exist. end, for every radical there will be an even more radical, you understand, if you say that i will cut off their legs, arms and head, then someone will immediately ask you, and the tongue, well, that's all, you're somehow not very radical, surely you , an agent of masad, so this is not just a coincidence, the second point is in the interests of both the islamic republic

of iran and the russian federation. the saudi-israeli agreement is close to being finalized, much like the peace agreement between israel and saudi arabia there were literally a few steps left and a few weeks, maybe days, and now i have great doubts that we can operate in such categories, but for saudi arabia, the peace agreement with israel is still a factor of reconciliation with the united states, the relationship with which was very difficult. all these last years, and saudi arabia has already emphasized that if israel makes any concessions to it, say, on nuclearization, uh, and the possibility for saudi arabia to get a peaceful atom, and in the event that iran gets nuclear weapons, then the opportunity for saudi arabia to get its nuclear weapons

, because it is absolutely obvious that the main power of the sonnets should have the opportunity...' and nuclear weapons on the shayites, all brothers, everyone loves each other, it is necessary and that love was expressed in women, so in this situation this agreement can be postponed for a certain time , and part of this agreement is an increase in oil production, an increase in oil production, this is the same black swan for russia, for iran, which at one time helped to get out of many crisis with their participation, because they just have the economy was collapsing, yikes, and if you imagine saudi arabia going into intensive oil production, we may say goodbye to the islamic republic and to putin's russia as it exists today within the next 24-48 months, but speculation by hamas can derail all these ambitious plans,

especially since the biden administration could even think that all this could be done before the presidential election, because the sharp drop in oil prices is a serious blow to moskviran, and today the plans of washington, jerusalem and riyadh have been dealt a serious blow by the hands of the proxy army of iran, because hamas is not an independent political force, like hazbela, which can at any moment try to intervene in the situation with uh, the territory of lebanon, these are iranian proxy armies, so these proxy armies are supported by the local population, the palestinians who live in the territory of the gaza strip and the west bank of the jordan river do not want to have their own state and their own well-being, everything is focused on their dreams and desires are to destroy the jewish state, they live this dream of murder, in the same way that russians live a dream that there will be no ukraine, but russia, so

the palestinians have been living for many decades a dream that there will be no and jewish state, but there will be an arab state, and every year, in principle, does not leave any civilizational prospects for the arab population of palestine in the future, i think it will be the same, just as, in principle , every year of the russian-ukrainian war will not allow the russians to hope for recovery of their empire, it is always these authoritarian desires of peoples that lead to the degeneration and degradation of these peoples and their inhuman desires, because in principle this is what goldem said, when they want, they will love their children more than wanting to kill ours, it is possible with them it is obvious that the time for such conversations has not yet come, and in order for such a conversation to begin, a change is needed in this part of the arab world, because in a large number of arab countries it has already happened, it is also true that there society thinks more about peace than about war, however, we must not forget that when we talk about the palestinian society, both israel and the west made a lot of mistakes in this,