forces of ukraine, and, of course, to achieve the goal of de-occupation of our ukraine. thank you, it was rodion, kodryashov, deputy commander of the third separate assault brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. let's wish all kinds of success to our soldiers. thank you for joining us, and we are now in touch with ivan kyrychevsky, military express, military expert defense express. greetings, ivan , we started talking a little about bahmud , let's probably tell us a little about him, can we expect some kind of strengthening there, some kind of change, well, because later i want to will talk to you about avdiyivka itself and what is around it, but he will already finish with bakhmut, that we can continue to wait there, will there be any change in hostilities there, or is this history for now, i think that this is

this will be the same story for a long time, well, purely because we do not yet have the resources for quantitative superiority, moreover, the russians clearly began to advance in other parts of the east precisely in order to try to dilute our reserves, respectively, so as not to it was possible to accumulate those units that are there to try to increase the effect, well, or near the same bakhmut, or maybe so that, if there is something free to transfer to the south, plus even this story about, well, what about the tying of logistical routes, how it... can affect, well, apparently, even if our, let's say, our artillery, it shoots more accurately and qualitatively than the russian one, but these firearms are clearly not enough to carry out what is called isolation of the theater of operations in those nato instructions, that is , to make it so that the enemy could not transport anything there, in principle, physically, well, there are only solid ruins from cars, and only then you move on to assaults, therefore, taking into account the fact that there, in principle, our troops have to act in the bakhmet direction in the conditions of

the enemy's numerical superiority, well, from those actual numbers, as far as i remember, the russians still have a group of more than 50,000 units there, although, well, it is constantly being replenished , around 200 tanks and 1,000 armored vehicles, well , the russians have too many of these for us to have any fast results, or let's put it this way, there are too many russians there to expect and demand quick and rapid results from our military, so it is obvious that the siege of the occupiers, temporarily, well, part, in the temporarily occupied part of bakhmet, well, it will still be, well, that's it a certain long, long time, until we have something like this, a game changer, or the russians, something like a black swan will happen , which, let's say, will lead to the corrosion of their defense system, well, but this is all too likely, so you need to be prepared for such that this is a static picture, it will be there for a long time, ugh, well, let's start talking about what happened:

during the last couple of days, that is , the intensification, first of all, the intensification of hostilities in the avdiivka district , describe this situation to us in general, what is specifically happening, and then what could it be, well, here we can start from the official data that have already been given, because the official data is a good indication of what kind of forces rashisti used yesterday as if they were trying to advance there, that is three battles with the support of tanks and other armored vehicles, well, if on the scale of the tasks that they immediately set themselves , that is, it would be impossible to try to close the encirclement around the girl then with a square of 12 by 15 km, it looks as if the russians, simply they thought that they would have such a blitzkrieg there and they could cope with the task there, with only three battalions, although there it is necessary, well, they took the scope as an operation of the strategist level, that is, they would have to

involve several brigades there at once, well, or perhaps they deliberately planned the hostilities act so that, well, it turns into a campaign of attrition and they, as they calculate their resources, even if they are wrong there, they can think that they will be able to win this campaign of attrition around avdivka more effectively than we. ivan , ivan, i'm sorry to interrupt, but you say, three battalions, these are some new forces, they brought them there, or is that all there was. do we have any understanding of this? i think that these are the forces that were there before, but which, let's say, the russians managed to prepare, because let's pay attention, even to that video , which is now very common in our country and is going around, well, on the one hand, well, this is the story, the people of kresy clearly tried, tried and tried to go to this crossing, clearly from the bridge-builder, i.e. there used to be a bridge there, it was bombed, and someone put this bridge there from a bridge car.

whether the occupiers or us, well, it looks so comical on the one hand, and on the other hand, well, as far as i remember, the last time there was such a great aggressiveness of the advance, well, that is to move, even if everything breaks down there, the logistical path for... is prepared, the occupiers demonstrated somewhere like this in march, in february 2022, when they were still, well , fearless, had no experience of defeat, but rather just passed a certain education, here you can completely omit that for this attack the russians used those units that , for example, for recovery after taking avdiyivka in winter or spring, were trained either on the territory of the russian federation, or on those training grounds that were set up in the temporarily occupied part of the soviet union of ukraine, accordingly, it can be seen that the bet is precisely on aggressiveness, that is, to simply break through the breach, as it were, to exclude this fear in their heads of our anti-tank means or anti-drones, somehow they have learned this during this time, well

, how much they have learned, as we can see from the results of their losses, well, in principle, this is also such a record figure for losses, i don’t remember such a number for a long time, that is, 34 tanks and more than two cars per day, but the fact that it was prepared by the occupiers is unfortunately a fact, and if they went like that and take some more positions, they did not succeed, they will be charged with such a long -term company until the task is completed, because obviously the task there now is such that either the achievement of the goals set by the kremlin, well, or another general spade. well, let's go now, for a little commercial break, and then we'll continue on the same topic, because i think this is the most interesting twist in the fighting that's worth analyzing, so now the commercial is on the espresso channel, stay with us , we will continue to analyze this situation, near avdiyivka when civilization is wiped out

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these are the chronicles of the hostilities, with ivan kyrychevskyi, a military expert from defense express, we continue to discuss the attempted offensive of the russians in the avdiivka area, and actually what this might mean, ivan, look, well, what will be the offensive in the avdiivka area, in principle it was clear from last week, well, at least no one came from the russians that they have such plans, we even in this program last week, i personally discussed that we should probably wait... there is an intensification of some kind of hostilities, but here is such a question, this local attack, they have some local target, is this some kind of larger effort across the front, do we have communication, i see that, i see that we have a little bit of a communication problem here, maybe let's try, let's redial, the thing is, why am i talking about this at all, because one way or another, but first of all, the russians still do not stop their attempts

to do something in the lyman region, in the kupyansk region, where they also constantly do something there , some forces, their offensive forces, moreover, there is a large group, say , that there is a large group near avdiivka, well, probably, it’s probably not possible, but nevertheless, there are some, and there are also declarations by the russian, first of all , the shoigu there, which say that they recruited and formed reserves there, recruited 300 with something there are 20,000 volunteers, and now as if they should demonstrate something, that they were recruiting these volunteers for something, what happened, well, it is clear that some of these volunteers had already been killed during their attempts to fight there under...' bakhmut, in the south, when

they were forced to raise troops in order to resist the ukrainian counteroffensive, there, well, it is known that they threw there just new recruits, new brigades, including mobilized ones, and those they announce as volunteers, they threw there, but one way or another , well, this is a constant attempt to spend some offensive actions of their own, which could demonstrate, in the opinion of the russian leadership, that the russian army is capable of conducting offensives in general and not just standing idly on the defensive, well, this, this, this can happen and it can continue, obviously, the only question is to what extent they have the strength for this, to what extent their declarations are real and to what extent, well, these are really threatening actions for us, because at the moment... well, we can only say, well , that's what foreign analysts say about this, that

at the moment the russians can conduct defensive actions, and in principle, they are the nature of all summer, all summer actions, these were primarily defensive actions carried out by the russians, and now we see, now, after such an attempt, there is an attempt to move there by podkupiansk, here we also see an attempt to move under the avdiivka, and in principle even understand a little. why near avdiivka, because this military district is very close to donetsk and this, well, let’s say this, is probably an ideologically important position, that’s how ivan kyryachevsky came to us, i ask the same thing, is it something local, or does it have some other objectives, or is this, well, a fragment of a larger effort, oh, a very good definition, after all, it is a fragment of a much larger effort, because on the one hand, here it was quite shown that yesterday the resolutes even wrote about their future campaign regarding obadiah that

so they say, this is in the current situation of the russian army, which is why, to begin with, it spent resources on its summer counteroffensive, which we may not have noticed, because, after all, the fact that they constantly counterattacked near bakhmut, what they constantly carried out some stormtroopers there counterattacking actions in the south, well, plus , they still tried to advance in the summer in the kupinsky and limansk directions, but then it was not successful. for myself, well, after all, it should also be taken as their counteroffensive operation, which failed , unlike ours, it is still too early to draw conclusions, but obviously the russians are now preparing positions for what could be called a conditional such a large offensive in the east, well , because as far as i remember, our general staff has not yet given up the qualification that the actions of the russians in the east, they are precisely aimed at occupying the entire territories of the luhansk and donetsk regions, and even if we take the general situation there, it looks

like the russians need to move to kupyansk and raisin precisely in order to to provide the northern flank for the offensive in the east. take action to encircle it, they just need it, not just there, but to capture a symbolically possible city, to overcome our enclave very close to donetsk, but in general, to cut off the ledge, which, as we can see there, form our lines around, well, the line of defense around avdiyivka, well, plus a bonus, of course, as there , as far as is known, the people of kadyriv very much like to bargain for broken metal, but apparently the avdiivka kokhsohim, as a source of scrap metal... is interesting, and of course, considering to the fact that the russians, at the same time, do not spare their , let's say, counterattack efforts near bakhmut and do not spare the pace of the onslaught, as they try to storm and, well, attack in the mariinsky direction, the voglodar direction, then this all really looks like part of such a large fragment of efforts, the russians have a suitable array of forces and means for these efforts, because if their occupation

group is only there, well, the front and, well, the first, second, and third lines of defense will amount to... 330,000 bayonets, not counting, let's say so , those own gendarmeries, that is, those forces that simply ensure the occupation regime, there is a militia, what else can they have there, there are too many of them, unfortunately, to be able, you know, to introduce such offensive actions, continuing that limited mobilization, which they were, which they are leading now, moreover, as, as they approach new battles in urbanized areas, there may even be a situation where they will... let's call it that, carry out the concept of mobilization through wagnerization, well , that is, multiply various such small private military campaigns , well, let's say this, on the one hand, you will repeat the so-called success story in the benches, well, according to their standards, the wagner pmc, and on the other hand , to avoid the political problems created by the existence of the wagner pmc, which, in essence , created, well, constituted two army

corps, such well-equipped ones, especially since there may still be others, could distort the optics of the events, well , even this accentuation from our official sources that the russians urgently transferred this unformed army to the front 25, forgive me, but if this army turned out to be capable of going on the offensive, then, unfortunately, the russians have fulfilled their plan to form this general military unit, even if it began to be implemented there only in december of last year, so all this is in action here reasons to qualify it as part of such large-scale efforts, and unfortunately for efforts in other areas, which at the same time we did not have the opportunity to concentrate our efforts only on clothing, the russians also have, well, let's say, an appropriate set of forces. well, with avdiivka, there is another complication that, in principle, it is really one, and probably the largest, the most fortified, really ours, our positions, because there are many ditches, well, underground communications, well

, it really is, it is such an engineering structure in essence, that is, let's, so that... simply the audience understood that it's not just a thin line of piles, no, it's a whole different story, and this story can be quite telling in terms of seeing how they can storm this whole thing, because trying to storm the way they stormed it in bakhmut, throwing, even there, according to wagner's principle, here, as they say, meat assaults, yes, well, it's not about this, about this story, because there have already been such attempts here and they failed, why they can expect further that they have to change some, some our tactics and, in principle, this change, we are probably already observing a little bit of tactics, but what exactly is it, well, judging by why they will always return to this here and here, in my opinion

, it is very much like that, stepping aside a little, but just in the context to our to binding events, especially. even the history of that hamas and its underestimation to everyone seems, well, let's put it this way, we had to meet a good statement that everyone was shown that it is necessary to get out of there fast, because it seems that something is disadvantageous for the enemy there, it is irrational to do something, well, this wrong, well, because if we were to say the style of russian warfare, it provides approximately the same, that is, to do as it is rationally unprofitable, accordingly, they may have even tried to change something there, that is, to advance exactly as the army of rev was going to do it until february 2022, well, that is, rapid such aggressive breakthroughs by mechanized convoys with the support of aviation and drones, well, because, for example, the figure in the general staff report about the downed su-25 there, and seven reconnaissance drones at once, clearly did not happen just like that, but from the fact that the russians massed the use, so to speak, of their aviation assets, well, they did not succeed, obviously, even from

this concept of acting there with small forces, but effectively, they tried to attack yesterday, it did not work, well, obviously they will do as they are used to, that is, to try to take the samudian siege, to try to increase the shelling there, to try to recruit these new storms, let's say so. assault infantry, which is not a pity, let's call it that, well, especially since why do they have a mechanism of private of military companies is still preserved, well, because try to sign up a mobilized or contracted person for such, you know, yes, if you hired a private wax company, you are paid decent money, but as part of your contract, you sign everything that you will go to this storm, they will clearly carry out this mechanism, really ... as you very rightly noted that in the case of avdiivka, it is in a kriprayon, a very powerful kriprayon, the level of power of which cannot be compared with anything now, but on the other hand,

let's note, maybe that's why the russians decided to abandon the assaults on the front of this fortification, which were carried out in the winter and spring of this year, where the russians recruited as many as 30 units of the level of a regiment, a brigade, overtook a lot of heavy artillery, they had nothing it turned out, that's why they tried to leave and that's how it happened. and judging by everything, they will even continue to try to beat there in order to capture, and then, when to continue the siege there and all that, let's say, all the format and methods of fighting that we could observe when you are talking about taking avdiivka into the environment, where it can happen, in what directions, because it is clear that this consists in... attempts to take avdiivka into the environment,

and where are there other points that are, well, apparently well, like that, i would say, well, dangerous at the moment, i think that they will just try to hit, try to hit where they ... hit yesterday, that is, just hit where in one point, well, just like that , based on our logic, to strike at one point where it is irrational, or you can prepare, there, but to decide, they act just the opposite, that if you hit the same point there , sooner or later you can break through, well, they simply did not demonstrate the ability to adjust their strategy in such a way as to look for some ways around it, because what's more, they can even consider that they had some partial success yesterday, especially since, well, that's it. for example, there is such a strange situation that the general staff claims that no position has been lost, well , but there are good people from the deep state resource, who know how to do geology very professionally

the current line of conflict, they say that a certain gray zone has arisen, as far as i recall, when there was just a small gray zone in the kupinsky-limansk direction, where three villages per 100 people were in this gray zone, it was perceived as a not an administrative disaster, which was later corrected, that is, well, we cannot, unfortunately, just say that all the efforts of the russians, which they did there yesterday, that they did not give them any result, respectively, if they can see the result in this, they will simply continue to do it in the same way, well, because they don’t know how otherwise, what are the russians’ opportunities for some intercessory actions, not only in this area, in general, that is, however you evaluate them, because the russians say there are about 320,000 volunteers who recruited, well, these are all conditional figures, well, they should not be taken seriously, because they most likely do not correspond to reality, or this is already together with those who have already managed to fight, but those no less than

what we have now on the battlefield that we we can still somehow identify and confirm these data, well, if we take the data that is available, then we can express the formula like this, for coming on the offensive, they have all the necessary resources, but in order to achieve the goals of their offensive, here the question is actually open, because after all, if you take, well, this example, with yesterday's losses on bbornetechnika, why does it look quite optimistic, and maybe it gives some commentators a reason to hope for the positive for us in principle completion of the case, well, because if you don't take in general, that the russians had 2,000 tanks left throughout the occupation group, and of them 1,000 tanks were stuck in the kupnitsko-umansky directions. well, it's obviously ineffective, they can't afford to lose tanks in the avdiiv direction. uh, 90 armored vehicles in one day, well, you know, two of them at such a pace

, if you take the data... according to the occupation forces, which are known, well, they will be enough for two or three months of such losses, in the future , therefore, and if you proceed from the logic that they are still russians, after they they try to take something by snoring, they don’t succeed, they switch to the usual, unfortunately, mode, that is, assault groups with limited support of armored vehicles, then the story arises that they will be able to enter into prolonged hostilities for a very long time, several months, but the result there will be so very slow, well, roughly like pvk wagnerner in the urban development of this bakhmut, a hundred meters is roughly estimated per week, well, that is , they have such possibilities, here we just have to accept the story that although it seemed to us that russians have a resource base there completely undermined, falling, but to accumulate strength for such a large, at least one offensive, or let’s call it that, one big offensive attempt in the east of ukraine, which can last several months there, even seize the winter period, they have what they

will after that to do, this is an open question, because it looks like they decided to go to abank with their resource base, that is, either the master or disappeared, roughly speaking, the western allies will already say something there about the formation of advantageous positions for us on the battlefield, well it's obvious that it's profitable as well positions on the conflict as a basis for negotiations and for negotiations, then it is possible now to accumulate everything they have, as they think, to achieve the goal of the conflict, to try to impose some of their own peace conditions, because if they have there some contracts or some planning for the military-industrial complex has a horizon until 2025, well, they obviously understand that they will not be able to fight with the material and technical base that they have, for many years, a year and a half, yes, but if they start to attack even more intensively, then this one the base will narrow, so they will try to squeeze as much as they can out of these few months, well, i think that's also true.

in principle, a pragmatic vision of the situation is enough, because most likely in the next two months we will see attempts to advance in such clear directions, kupyan-lymansky, avdiivsky, it is still possible, well, which one, ughledarsky, i don't know, ivanedarsky and not to pass, and to proceed to the offensive in the south, well , because the logic is approximately such that if the enemy, well, if you look from the side russians, if the enemy... does not counterattack, after a certain time it will be exhausted, so it is necessary to go into a counterattack, that is, even try to attack our defensive positions, they will obviously try, well, all the more so, let's be honest, after a certain time, well, even if it will be in a couple of months, having achieved certain results in the south, our troops will be forced to knit an operational pause for recovery, then the russians will also try what they call cutting the flank there, so the question is only, but i will repeat once again, there will be a question

it's just that they have the resources to go on the offensive, but they won't have the resources to achieve their goals, well, i think that they will do it in the near future and we will see it in the near future with all their efforts, because this situation, when they are standing in defense, politically it has dragged on too much for them and is simply becoming politically dangerous, that is, this offensive has such a certain political meaning, it is the kremlin's attempt to show that they have the strength to attack and that is why they will do it now with concentrated forces, well... . the coming weeks and in this regard, avdiyivka is just the beginning of this process, you have to understand it, i think, i don’t know, well, thanks to ivan kyrychevskyi , he is a military expert defense express, the situation, well, as you can see, has escalated again, precisely from the point of view of the russians, they started offensive actions, well, we will restrain them, well, what can i say,

they have been beaten more than once, the technique continues them. here are all their recent conversations about how ukrainian equipment burned there, now we can see how beautifully russian equipment will burn and in large quantities, so watch the tv channel espresso, we will show you all this. 2:00 p.m. in ukraine, for your attention, a news release on the espresso tv channel, in the studio of iryna koval, greetings to all viewers. the russians hit a cemetery in the suburbs of kherson with drones, and previously three workers of the rescue service were injured, one of them was hospitalized in a serious condition, the head of the city's military administration, roman mrochko, said. at that time , a memorial procession was going on at the cemetery. during the day, our defenders destroyed almost a hundred

enemies. vehicles in the taurian direction, in particular: