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helps. processes taking place in ukraine and the world vitaly portnikov, host of espresso and invited experts, based on facts, give their assessment and forecast of the development of events. if you want to understand how our today will affect our tomorrow, watch the saturday political club, every saturday on espresso. these are the chronicles of the hostilities, with ivan kyrychevskyi, a military expert from defense express, we continue to discuss the russian offensive in the avdiyivka region and what it might mean, ivan, look, well, what will be the offensive in the avdiyivka region, in principle, it was clear from the past week, well at least no one came from the russians that they have such plans, we are even in this program, last week i personally discussed that we should probably wait for an intensification of some hostilities there, but here is the question, this is a local offensive, do they have some local

goal, or this is some kind of greater effort, the whole front, do we have a connection, i see, i see that we have a little bit here. communication problems, maybe we can try , let's redial, the point is, why am i talking about this at all, because one way or another, but well, first of all, the russians still do not stop their attempts to do something to make in the district of lyman, in the district of kupyansk, where they also constantly carry out some forces, their offensive forces , moreover, there is a large group, to say that there is a large group near avdiyivka, well, probably, for sure it is not possible, but that nevertheless, there are some, and there are also declarations of the russian generals, first of all, the shoigu, who say that they recruited and formed reserves, recruited 300 or something like

20,000 volunteers, and now they seem to have to demonstrate something that they are on these volunteers were recruited, what happened, well, it is clear that some of these volunteers were already killed during their attempts to fight there near bakhmut, in the south, when they were forced to raise troops to resist the ukrainian counteroffensive, it is well known that they new recruits, new brigades, including mobilized ones, and those they declare as volunteers, they threw there, but one way or another, well, this is a constant attempt to carry out some of their offensive actions, which could demonstrate to the opinion

of the russian leadership, that the russian army is capable of conducting offensives in general, and not just standing idly by on the defensive, uh, well, this, this, this can happen and this can continue, obviously, the only question is how much strength they have for this, to what extent their declarations are real and to what extent... well, these are really threatening actions for us, because at the moment, we can only say, well, that's it, foreign analysts say about it that currently the russians can conduct defensive actions and, in principle, their nature of all summer, all summer actions, these were primarily defensive the actions carried out by the russians, and now we see, now, after such an attempt , there is movement near kupyansk, we also see an attempt is moving near avdiivka, and in principle it is even a little clear why near avdiivka, because this fortified area is very close to

donetska and this, well, let's say this, probably an ideologically important position , ivan kiryachevskyi turned to us , i ask the same thing, is it something local, does it have some other goals, or is it, well, a fragment of larger efforts , oh, very nice definition, still a fragment of a much larger effort, because on the one hand, here it was quite shown that yesterday the rechists themselves even wrote about their future campaign in relation to what they say is the current situation of the russian army, which, to begin with, spent resources on its summer counteroffensive, which we can they didn't notice, well, because after all, the fact that they were constantly counterattacking near bakhmut, the fact that they were constantly carrying out some sort of assault counterattack actions there. in the south, well, plus , they still tried to advance in the summer in the kupinsky and limansk directions, but then they did not well for themselves, well, after all, it should also be taken as their counteroffensive operation, which failed, unlike ours, it is still

too early to draw conclusions, but obviously the russians are now preparing positions for what could be called a conditional such a large offensive in the east, well, because as far as i remember, our general staff has not yet given up the qualification that the actions... of the russians in the east, they are precisely aimed at occupying the entire territories of the luhansk and donetsk regions, and even, if you take them there, in general, such a situation, in general, it looks like the russians need to move to kupyansk and raisin precisely in order to secure the northern flank for the offensive in the east, to attack the action itself, to encircle it, they just need to not just there, well, to capture a symbolically important city, to overcome our fortress district. very close to donetsk, but in general, to cut off the ledge, which, as we can see there, forms our lines around, well, defense lines around avdiivka, well, plus a bonus, of course, like there,

as far as is known, the people of kadyriv very much like to bargain for broken scrap metal, here it is obvious , the avdiiv kokhsokhim, they are interested as a source of scrap metal here, well, of course, given the fact that the russians, at the same time, they do not spare their, let's say, efforts there on counterattacks near bakhmut and do not reduce the pace of the onslaught, they are trying to storm and , well, attack voglodarsky in the mariinsky direction, then this all really looks like a part of such a large fragment of efforts, for these efforts the russians have a suitable array of forces and means, because if their occupying group is only there, well, the front and well, the first or second there on the third line of defense, they have 430,000 bayonets, not counting, let’s say, their own gendarmerie, well, that is, those forces that simply ensure the occupation regime, there is the militia , what they might still have there, there are too many of them , unfortunately, to be able, you know, to introduce such offensive actions, continuing the limited mobilization that they had, which they are now conducting, moreover, as and when , how they will

approach new battles in the urbanized localities, there may even be such a situation that they will, let’s call it, carry out the concept of mobilization through wagnerization , well, that is, multiply various such small private military companies, let’s say, on the one hand, repeat the so-called success story in the benches, well, how about by their standards, the wagner pwc, and on the other hand, to avoid the political problems created by the existence of the wagner pwc, which, in fact, created, well, constituted... two army corps, such well-equipped ones, all the more so it is possible that the optics in the events could have been confused, well, even this accentuation from our official sources that, well, well , the russians immediately transferred this unformed army to the front 25, forgive me, but if this army turned out to be capable of going on the offensive , well, that means, unfortunately, the russians fulfilled their plan to form this combined military unit, even if it began to be implemented there only in december of last year, so it's all in vain. here there are reasons to qualify as part of such

large-scale efforts, and unfortunately for efforts on other areas, so that at the same time we do not have the opportunity to concentrate our efforts only on ovdiivka, the russians also have, well, let's say, an appropriate array of forces. well, there is another difficulty with ovdiivka, that in principle, it is really one, and probably the largest, most fortified, really our positions, because there are many ditches, well, underground communications. well, this is really, this is such an engineering structure in its essence, that is, let's just so that the audience understands that this is not just a thin line of cops, no, this is a completely different story, and this the story can be quite indicative in terms of seeing how they can storm this whole thing, because attempts to storm the way they stormed it in bakhmut by throwing, even there according to wagner's principle, here, as they say

, meat storms yes, well, it's not about this , it's not about this story, because there have already been such attempts here and they failed, what can they count on next? that they have to change some of their tactics and, in principle , we are probably already observing a little bit of this changing of tactics, but what exactly is it? well judging by why they are all the same here before this... they will return here and in my opinion, very much like there , stepping aside a little, but well, just in the context of ours to the binding, especially even the story with that hamas and there underestimation of everyone as if , well, let's say this, i had to come across a good statement that everyone was shown that it is not profitable to just leave there, that it is not rational to do something, well, it is wrong, because if we were to speak of the style of russian warfare, it provides approximately the same , i.e to do as it is rationally unprofitable, accordingly, it is possible that they even tried to change something there, that is, to advance

exactly as the ref army was going to do it until february 2022, well, that is, rapid, such aggressive breakthroughs by mechanized columns with the support of aviation and drones, well, that’s why that, for example, the number in the general staff report about the downed su-25 and seven reconnaissance drones at once was clearly not just that, but from the fact that the russians massed for the use , so to speak, of their aviation assets, well they didn't succeed, obviously they... even from this concept of acting with small forces, but effectively, they tried to do something , but it didn't work, well, obviously, they will do as they are used to, that is, they will try to take the siege itself , to try to increase the shelling there, to try to recruit these new storm, other such, let's say, storm infantry, which is not a pity, let's call it that , well, all the more so that why the mechanism of private military companies is preserved there, well, because try it, or

the contractor to sign such, of course, yes, if you hired a private military company, you are paid easy money, but as part of your contract , you sign that you will go on this assault, they will obviously carry out this mechanism, there really is, as you very rightly noted, that in the case the reason for this is a fortified area, a very powerful fortified area, the level of power of which cannot be compared with anything now, but on the other hand, let's note, perhaps that is why the russians decided to abandon the assaults on the front of this fortified area, which were in winter and in the spring of this year, where the russians recruited as many as 30 units of regimental brigade level. they caught up with a lot of heavy artillery here, they didn’t succeed, that’s why they tried to leave and that’s how they aimed, and judging by everything , they will even continue to try to hit there in order to capture it, and then when they continue the siege there and everything,

let's say, all the formats and techniques of combat that we could observe, when you talk about taking an audio player into the environment, where it can happen, in what directions, because it is clear that this is the idea, that is to sharpen, but if you look at the map, where does krasnogohorivka fear part of this very attempt to encircle avdiivka, and where are there other points that are, well, probably, well, i would say, dangerous at the moment. i think that they will just beat, try, try to beat where they beat yesterday, that is, just beat where in one point, well, just how, based on our logic, to beat in one point where it is irrational, because, well, you can prepare, there, but decide, they act just the opposite

there, if you hit one and the same point, you can finish sooner or later, well, they simply did not demonstrate the ability to adjust their strategy in such a way as to look for some way around it, especially since they may even think that they have yesterday there was some partial success, especially since, for example, there is such a strange situation that the general staff claims that no position has been lost, but there are good people from the resource department, who are very professionally able to geologize the current battle line, saying, which is a certain gray area arose, as far as i can recall, that when a small gray area appeared in the kupinsky liman direction, where three villages with 100 people ended up, this was not perceived as an administrative disaster, which was later corrected, that is, well, we cannot unfortunately, we just say that all the efforts of the russians that they did there yesterday , that they did not give them any result, respectively, if they can see the result in this, they will just continue

to do it the same way, because they are different can't what are the possibilities of the russians for some intervening actions, not only in this area, in general, that is, how would you evaluate them, because the russians are talking about 320,000 volunteers there, who recruited, well, these are all conditional numbers, which are not no, they should not be taken seriously, because they most likely do not correspond to reality, or it is already together with those who have already managed to fight, but nevertheless, what we have now on the battlefield, what can we somehow way to identify and confirm these data, well, that's it. if we take the available data, then we can express the formula as follows: for the offensive, they have all the necessary resources, but in order to achieve the goals of the offensive, here the question is actually open, because after all, if we take , well, here is an example, with yesterday's losses in defense technology, why does it look quite optimistic, and maybe

it gives some commentators a reason to hope in principle for a positive end to the case for us, well, because if you don't take it in general, the russians have 2,000 tanks left by to everything occupation group, and of them a thousand tanks were stuck in the kupinsky direction, well, obviously so inefficiently , they cannot afford to lose tanks in the avdiiv direction , 90 armored vehicles in one day, well, you know, at this rate, two of them, if you take the data from the occupation the troops , which are known, well, they will be enough for two or three months of such losses, the next question is, why, and if we proceed from the logic that after all, the russians after they... try to take something by snoring, they do not , they pass, very familiar, unfortunately, the regime, that is, assault groups with the limited support of military equipment, then the story arises in such a way that they will be able to enter combat operations for a very long time, several months, but the result there will be so very slow, well, approximately how the wagner pkv

advanced in the urban development of wagner, this bakhmut, a hundred meters per week is approximate, well, that is, there are such and such possibilities, here we simply have to accept the story that although we russians have a resource base there that is completely undermined, it is falling, but to accumulate strength for such a big one, at least one offensive, or let's call it that, one big offensive attempt in the east of ukraine, which may last several months there, even cover the winter period, they have what they will do after that, this question is open, because it looks like they decided with to go to abank with your resource base, that is, either master or gone, roughly speaking, the western allies will already say something there about the formation of advantageous positions for us on the battlefield, well, obviously, and how well, advantageous positions on the battlefield as a basis for negotiations and posture for negotiations, then it is possible now to accumulate everything they have. there, as they think, to achieve goals in the war, to try to impose their own peace conditions,

because, well, if they have some contracts or some planning for the military-industrial complex with a horizon until 2025, well, they obviously they understand that they will not be able to fight with the material and technical base that they have, for years there, a year and a half yes, and if they start to advance so intensively, then this base will narrow, so why? they will try to squeeze out a few months as much as they can. well, it seems to me that this is also, in principle, enough if a pragmatic vision of the situation, because most likely, in the next two months, we will see attempts to advance, on quite such clear directions, kupyan-limansk, avdiivsk, it is still possible , well, i don’t know what else, vogledarsky, ivan, and move on to the offensive in the south, because the logic is approximately such that if the enemy, well, if you look at it from

the russian side, if the enemy counterattacks after a certain time it wears out, so you have to go into your counteroffensive, that is, even try to attack our defensive positions, they will obviously try, all the more so, let's be honest, after a certain time, even if it will be in a couple of months , having achieved certain results in the south, our cells will be forced to take an operational pause for recovery, then the russians will also try what they have there , the only question is, but i will repeat once again, here the question will simply be that they will proceed to the offensive , there are resources, but how much will there be resources to achieve the set goals, well, i think that they will do it in the near future and we will see it in the near future with all their efforts, because this situation, when they are on the defensive, has politically dragged on too much for them and is simply becoming politically dangerous, i.e. this offensive has such a certain political meaning, it is an attempt by the kremlin to... show that they have the strength for an offensive and that is why they will do it now with concentrated forces, well, the next few

weeks and avdiyivka in this regard are just the beginning of this process, you have to understand that, to me i don't think so, i don't know, thanks to ivan kyrychevskyi, this is a defense express military expert, the situation, as you can see, has escalated again, precisely from the point of view of the russians, they have started offensive actions, well, we will, we will deter, well, what can i say, already they were beaten more than once, their equipment continues to burn, here are all their conversations about how ukrainian equipment was burning there, now we can see how beautifully a large number of russian equipment will be burning, so watch the espresso tv channel, we will give you all this show. we are looking for a 16-year-old girl daryna zhuravel from kherson region. imagine, the girl disappeared on the first day of the war, and until

now there was no news about her. i know that when the full-scale invasion began, darina was in the town of nova kakhovka, which is still under occupation. maybe that's why the girl doesn't get in touch, so i'm asking everyone, especially the residents of the left bank of the kherson region, who might be watching. program in social networks. look carefully at the photo of darina zhuraravel and try to remember her face. if someone suddenly sees a 16-year-old girl or you if her possible whereabouts become known, do not delay and immediately call us on the hotline of the magnolia children's search service at the short number 1163. calls from any ukrainian mobile operator are free. if it is not possible to get in touch by phone, write to the chatbot. looking for children in telegram, any information is important. i also want to remind you that we

are continuing the search for 16-year-old karina kanivets, also from the kherson region. her mother told us about the girl's disappearance. imagine, a woman does not know anything about her fate for more than five months daughters and i turned everywhere i could, i'm already screaming as hard as i can, it's like they tied my hands and told me to swim, that's the situation i'm in at the moment. it so happened that karina's parents separated long before the start of the war and lived separately. the girl lived with her mother on a permanent basis, but on the eve of the full-scale invasion, she was with her father and when the russians entered, she ended up in the occupied territory. from time to time, the woman says, she corresponded with her daughter on social networks, but in april the connection with karina mysteriously broke off. the girl stopped logging into her accounts and no one knows where she is now. who does not know, but i have already written everywhere, even here on this territory in search of a child, because i don’t know where

to shout, how to find a child, i can’t, i am an adequate mother, for me... the child is mine life was karina kanivets' mother is currently also in the occupied territory, but continues to do everything in her power to find her daughter. i want to appeal to everyone who saw it, or who knows something my child, who has been missing since april 2023, is karina igorevna, born on august 9, 2007. if anyone has seen karina kanivets, or knows anything about her possible whereabouts, do not delay and immediately contact the magnolia children's search service at the short number 11630, calls from any ukrainian mobile operator are free. if suddenly there is no connection and there is no way to call us, write to the chatbot of the children's search service in telegram.

i am asking my beloved child so that she will see. writes me so that she responds, i'm really looking forward to it, thanks to everyone who can help. this is just one story of a missing child. in general, since the beginning of the war, we have received thousands of appeals for help in the search. fortunately, most of the children have already been found, but the fate of many remains unknown. this especially applies to the temporarily occupied territories, where the work of the police is practically paralyzed, from where it is impossible to leave and there are communication problems. everyone can help find missing children. allocate just a minute of your time and go to the magnolia children's tracing website. here you can view all the photos of the missing. who knows, maybe you will recognize someone and eventually help them find them. we have created a resource through which you can report any crime against a child. in any

city, at any time. just drop in. to the site and report, and we will launch all possible mechanisms to punish the criminal. stopcrime ua. i am the commander of the leopard 26 tank, my call sign is forward, we are taking part in one of the difficult directions, this is zaporizhia, where we lead

offensive actions, well, the advantages of this tank, if of course. if, this is the speed, accuracy, maneuverability of this tank, it is very maneuverable, if, very fast, and well, this is accuracy, we thank our western partners who provide us with this equipment and well , we would like as much as possible for them to help us, this machine is armed with two with 762 machine guns and a 120 mm rifled gun, this machine can work at night, there is a night vision device, if this machine can see for 4 km, if that allows you to fire at the enemy, well, and give, if, in in principle, a hundred percent result, we were on the ochepka, we were studying for infantry , and a major from one of the tank brigades came and said, i need tankmen, only two men turned out, he says i need more, i say, well, i would try, but in i'm not there, i didn't even

see them right away, they taught me, they taught me here literally six months later. service, our company commander comes and says that we are going to che on the leopard, and we are all like, wow, we only saw it on the news, well, not all of us really believed in it, and here yes, we arrived, got rid of it, well, if we were very satisfied , that's just for us we were lucky that we got such equipment, i will tell you, i am very satisfied with this machine room, since we were previously on the t-64, we were trained for about a month, and we fought on them for a short time and we came to the leopard, the difference is very big , because the most important advantage of this machine is the survivability of the crew, that is, you leave, i am more calm for my life, the lives of my brothers, there is no such effect as soviet equipment, it is the detonation of the pain kit and the flight of the tower, so to speak, well, the second thing is, well , maybe it's not the most important thing, but for my height, i am