[000:00:00;00] plus to all this, there is a certain trend regarding the development of the birth of e, the history associated with drones, which in principle strengthens these two advantages, as well as a large number of ammunition and a large number of infantry, therefore the format of the use of troops by the terrorist russian federation, it is not is changing, they are trying to take quantity, i.e. to attack with manpower, to throw shells at the shoulder, and so on and so on, we in turn can only count on quality, because obviously, our potential, at least in terms of mobilization, is less than that of the russian federation, and one way or another, we are also successful, and instead of hundreds of projectiles released by the enemy, we can fire 10-15 and hit the target exactly, so it is precisely the quality and preservation of personnel that the armed

forces of ukraine work on, well, of course the same. to achieve the goals of the de-occupation of our ukraine. thank you, it was rodion, kodryashov, deputy commander of the third separate assault brigade of the armed forces of ukraine. we wish success to our soldiers of all kinds. thank you for joining us, and ivan kyrychevskyi is in touch with us now, military express, military expert defense express, congratulations ivan, we started talking a little about bahmud, let's probably. and you tell us a little about him, right now we can expect some kind of strengthening there, some kind of change, because later i want to talk to you about avdiivka itself and what is surrounding it, but it will already end with the bang that we we can continue to wait there to see if there will be any change in hostilities, or if this is a stale story for now, i think it

will be like this for a long time... a stale story, well, purely because we do not yet have the resources for numerical advantage, moreover, the russians clearly began to advance in other areas in the east precisely in order to try to dilute our reserves, respectively, so that it would not be possible to accumulate those units that are there to try to increase the effect, well, or near bakhmut itself, or it is possible that if there is something free to transfer to the south, well, plus even this story about, well, what about the construction of logistical routes, how it can affect, well, judging. in general, even if our, shall we say, our artillery, it shoots more accurately, better than the russian one, but these means of fire are clearly not enough to carry out what in these nato instructions is called the isolation of the theater of operations, that is, to make it so that the enemy could not transport anything there, in principle physically, well, just solid ruins from cars, and already then moves on to assaults, therefore, taking into account the fact that there, in principle, our troops have to conduct

assault actions in the bahmit direction in conditions of quantitative from those actual figures, as far as i remember, the russians still have a group of more than 50 there thousands of units, despite, well, it is constantly replenished, somewhere around 200 tanks and 1,000 armored vehicles , well, the russians have too much of this for us to have any rapid quick results, or let’s put it this way, there are too many russians so that from our military to expect and demand quick and rapid results , therefore it is obvious that the siege of the occupiers is temporary, well, part... in the temporarily occupied part of bakhmut, well, it will be, well, for a certain long time, until we have something like this, a game changer, or something like a black swan will not happen to the russians, which, let's say, will lead to the corrosion of their defense system, but it's all too likely, so you have to be ready for something that static here is the picture, it will be there for a long time, ugh, well, let's start talking about what

happened during the last couple of years. i.e. the intensification, first of all, of the intensification of hostilities in the avdiivka area, describe this situation to us in general, what specifically happens and what happens next, well, what could the whole be? well, here we can start with the official data that have already been given, because the official data is a good indication of what forces the rashists apparently tried, tried to advance there yesterday, that is, three battalions with the support of e tanks and other armored vehicles, well if, on the scale of the tasks that they immediately set themselves, that is, it would be impossible to try to close the encirclement of the surrounding areas, which would then be a square of 12 by 15 km, it looks as if the russians simply thought that they would get such a blitzkrieg there and they can handle there with the task of only three battalions, although there they need to, well, they took the scale as a strategic-level operation, that is, they

would have to involve several brigades there at once, well, or maybe they deliberately planned the conduct of hostilities in such a way that, well, it turned into rather a campaign of attrition and they, as accounting for their resource'. even if they are wrong there, they may think that they can win this campaign of attrition around avvidka more effectively than we can. ivan, ivan, sorry to interrupt, but here you are saying three battalions, is it some new forces, they pulled it there, or is it all that was there before, do we have any understanding of it? i think that these are the forces that were there before, but which, by the way, the russians managed to prepare, because let's pay attention, even to that video, which is now very popular with us, well, on the one hand, well this is the story, the people of kresy clearly tried , tried and tried to cross over this given crossing - clearly from a bridge builder, that is, there was a bridge there once, it was bombed, and

someone put this bridge there from a car the bridge builder or the occupiers or us, well, it looks so comical on the one hand, and on the other hand, as far as i remember, the last time there was such a great aggressiveness of the advance, well, that is, to move, even if everything breaks down there, the path is not logistically prepared, the occupiers ... demonstrated something like this somewhere in march, in february 2022, when they were still fearless, had no experience of defeats, but rather had just passed a certain training, here it can be completely omitted that for this attack the russians used those units that, for example, , for recovery after attempts to take avdiivka in winter or spring, they underwent training either on the territory of the russian federation, or on those training grounds that were set up on a temporary basis. part of the sun of ukraine, accordingly, it can be seen that this bet is precisely on aggressiveness, that is, to break through the breach, as if to exclude this fear in the head of our anti-tank means or anti-drones, somewhere

like that they learned this during this time, well, how much of course they learned, we see according to the results of their losses, well, in principle, this is also such a record i don’t remember the number of losses for a long time, i.e. 34 tanks and more than 90 armored vehicles per day, but the fact that the prepared occupiers left is unfortunately a fact, and if they left like that, damn it, and they didn’t manage to take any more positions, they will charged for such a long-term campaign until the task is completed, because obviously the task there now is such that either the achievement of the goals set by the kremlin, well, or another general collapse, well, let's now go on such a small advertising pause, and then continue on the same topic , because it seems to me that it is the most so interesting... a turn in the hostilities that is worth analyzing, so now there is an advertisement on the espresso tv channel, stay with us, we will continue to analyze this situation, near

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, a military expert of defense express , we continue to discuss the attempted offensive of the russians in the avdiyivka area, and actually what this could mean, ivan, look, well, what will happen offensive in the avdiivka region, in principle it was clear from last week, well, at least no one came from the russians that they have such plans, we even in this program last week, i personally discussed that we should probably expect an increase in some kind of hostilities there . but here is the question, is this a local offensive, do they have some kind of local target, is this some kind of larger effort across the front, do we have communication, i see that, i see that we have a little bit of a communication problem here , maybe we'll try, let's redial, the point is, why me i am talking about this in general, because one way or another , but... well, first of all, the russians still do not stop

their attempts to do something in the lyman area, in the kupiansk area, where they are also constantly doing something there with some forces, their forces offensive, moreover, there is a large group there, to say that there is a large group near avdiivka, well, it probably cannot be said that way, but nevertheless, there are some, and there are also declarations of the russian generals, primarily shoigo there. who say that they have collected there, formed reserves, collected 300 or so 20,000 volunteers there, and now they seem to have to demonstrate something, that they were recruiting these volunteers for something, what happened, well, it is clear that some of these volunteers were already killed

during their attempts to fight there near bakhmut, in the south, when they were forced to raise troops in order to resist the ukrainian counteroffensive, there, well, it is known that they just threw new recruits there, new brigades, including mobilized ones, and those they announce as volunteers, they threw, but yes or no otherwise, well, this is a constant attempt to carry out some offensive actions , which could demonstrate in the opinion of the russians that the russian army is capable of conducting offensives in general , and not just standing idly on the defensive, well, this , this, this can happen and this can continue, obviously, the question only in the extent to which they have the strength for this, to the extent that their declarations are real and to the extent that these are really threatening actions for us, because at the moment we can only speak... and this is what foreign analysts

are saying about this, that at the moment the russians can lead defensive actions and, in principle, their nature, all summer, all summer actions, these were primarily defensive actions carried out by the russians, and now we see, now, after such an attempt, there is movement near kupyansk, and we see also an attempt is moving near avdiyivka, and in principle it is even a little clear why near avdiyivka, because, uh, this enclave is very close to donetsk and it is , well, let's say, an ideologically important position, that's how ivan krichevskyi came back to us, i'm asking the same thing , is it something local, or does it have some other purpose, or this is, well, a fragment of a larger effort, oh, a very good definition, after all, it is a fragment of a much larger effort, because on the one hand, here it was quite shown that yesterday the reshets even wrote about their future

campaign for action, which they say , this is in the current position of the russian army, which, to begin with, spent resources on its summer counteroffensive, which may not have been noticed, because, after all, the fact that they constantly counterattacked near bakhmut, the fact that they constantly carried out some sort of assault there counterattacking actions in the south, well, a plus after all, they still tried to advance in the summer in the kupinsky and lyman directions, then it was unsuccessful for themselves, well, after all, it should also be perceived as their counteroffensive operation, which failed, in contrast, well, from ours, where to draw conclusions it's too early, but obviously the russians are now preparing positions so that it would be possible to... a conditional such a large offensive in the east, well , because as far as i remember, our general staff has not yet given up the qualification that the actions of the russians in the east, they are precisely aimed at that to to completely occupy the territories of the luhansk and donetsk regions, and even if we take the general situation there, it looks

like the russians need to move to kupyansk and raisin precisely in order to secure the northern flank for the offensive in the east, to advance on itself... in the action to take it into the encirclement, they just need it, not just there, well, to capture a symbolically possible city, to overcome our kriprayon, very close to donetsk, but in general, to cut off the ledge, which, as we we can see there, that's what forms our lines around, well, lines defenses around avdiyivka, well, a plus as a bonus, of course, as there , as far as is known, the people of kadyriv very much like to bargain for broken scrap metal, here it is obvious the avdiivka kokhsohim, they are interested as a source of scrap metal here, well, of course, considering that the russians, at the same time they do not spare their, let's say, counterattack efforts near bakhmut and do not spare the pace of the onslaught, as they try to storm and, well, attack in the mariyan direction, voglodarsky, then it all really looks like a part of such a large fragment of efforts, on these efforts

the russians have the appropriate array of forces and means, because if their occupation group is only there, well, the front and well, the first, the second, there conditionally on the third line of defense there are 430,000 bayonets, not counting... let's say, their gendarmerie, well that is those forces that simply ensure the occupation regime, there is a militia, what else can they have there, there are too many of them, unfortunately, to be able, you know, to introduce such offensive actions, continuing the limited mobilization that they were, that they are now they lead, moreover, in measure as, in measure how they will approach new battles in an urbanized area, there may even be such a situation that they will , let 's call it, carry out this... on the one hand, you will repeat the so-called success story in quotation marks, well, according to their standards, the wagner pmc, and on the other hand, to avoid the political problems created by the existence of the wagner pmc, which, in fact, created, well, constituted two

army corps, which is nice equipped, all the more so because it is still possible that there could be misleading optics in the events, well, even this accentuation from our official sources that, well, well, the russians urgently transferred this unformed army to the front 25, forgive me, but if this army turned out to be able to go on the offensive, that means, unfortunately, the russians fulfilled their plan for the formation of this general military unit, even if it began to be implemented there only in december of last year, therefore, after all, there are reasons to qualify part of such large-scale efforts and unfortunately for efforts in other areas, so that at the same time we do not have the opportunity to concentrate our efforts only on avdiivka, the russians also have such an appropriate array of forces. well, with ovdiivka, there is another complication that, in principle, it is really one , and probably the largest, the most fortified , really ours, our positions, because there are many ditches, well, underground communications, well, it

really is, it is such an engineering structure in essence own, that is, let's just let the audience understand that it's not just a tune. line of cops, no, that's a whole different story, and uh, that story can be quite indicative in that look how they can storm this whole thing, because trying to storm the way they stormed it in bakhmut, throwing, even there , according to wagner's principle, this is, as they say, meat assaults, yes, well, it's not about this, not about this story, because there have already been such attempts... and they failed, what can they count on next, that they have to change some of their tactics and, in principle, we are probably already changing these tactics we are watching a little, but what exactly is she, well, judging by

everything, they will return to this here and there, and here, in my opinion, very much like there they go a little to the side, but well , just in the context of our pre-binding events, especially even the history with this and that hamas and the underestimation of everyone as if, well, let's put it this way, i had to meet a good statement that everyone was shown that simply leaving with the enemy there seems to be something disadvantageous, irrational to do something, well, it's wrong, well, because , so to speak, the style of russian warfare, it is approximately like this itself foresees, that is, to do as it is rationally unprofitable, accordingly, they may have even tried to change something there , that is, to advance exactly as the ref army was going to do it until february 2022, well, that is, rapid such aggressive breakthroughs by mechanized columns with the support of aviation and drones , well, because, for example, the figure in the general staff report about the downed su25 and seven reconnaissance drones at once, obviously. not just like that, but from the fact that the russians massed the use, so to speak, of their aviation means, well, they didn’t succeed, obviously, even from this

concept of acting with small forces, but effectively , they tried to attack yesterday, it didn’t work, well , obviously, they will do as they are used to, that is, they will try to take action themselves siege, try to increase the shelling there, try to recruit these new storms, others, such, let's say, storm infantry... which is not a pity, let's call it that, well, all the more so that why the mechanism of private military companies is still preserved there, well, that's why try mobilized or contract to sign up for such a well-known yes , if you are hired by a private military company, you are paid simple money, but as part of your contract, you sign that you will go on this assault, they will obviously carry out this mechanism, there really, as you say, is very correct noted that in the case of the event... this is a fortified region, a very powerful fortified region , er, the level of power, which cannot be compared with anything now, but on the other hand,

let's note, maybe that's why the russians decided and to abandon assaults in the front of this fortified area, which were on the ground and in the spring of this year, where the russians recruited as many as 30 units of regimental-brigade level, overtook them with a lot of heavy artillery, they did not succeed , that is why they tried to leave from everything they will even continue there to try to beat so that the capture, and then, when, to continue the siege there and everything, let's say so, all the formats and methods of fighting that we could observe, when you talk about what to take the audio girl into the environment, where it can happen, in what directions, because it is clear that this is the idea, i.e. to surround, and if you look at the map, where does krasnogohorivka come from? part of it is afraid of this attempt to surround avdiivka, and

where are there other points that are, well, probably, well, i would say , well, dangerous at the moment, i think that they will just hit, try, try to hit where they hit yesterday, that is, just hit... there in one point, well, just like there, based on our logic, to beat at one point where it is irrational, but you can prepare there, and decide, they act just the opposite, that if you hit the same point there , you can break through sooner or later, well, they simply did not demonstrate the ability to adjust their strategy in such a way as to look for some ways around it, especially since they may even believe that they had some partial success yesterday, especially since, well, for example, there is such a strange situation that... with claims that no position has been lost, well , but there are good people from the deep state resource , who very professionally know how to geologize

the current line of conflict, say that it is certain a gray zone appeared, as far as i recall, when a small gray zone appeared in the kupinsky liman direction, where three villages per 100 people were in this gray zone, it was not perceived as an administrative disaster, which was later corrected, that is, well , we cannot, unfortunately, just say that all the efforts of the russians that they did there yesterday, that they did not give them any result, accordingly, if they can see the result in this, they will just continue to do it like this samo, well, because they don’t know otherwise, what are the possibilities of the russians for some intervening actions, not only in this area , in general, that is, how would you evaluate them, because the russians are talking there about 320,000 volunteers who recruited, well these are all conditional figures, which are not to be taken seriously, because they most likely do not correspond to reality, or this is already together with those who have already managed to fight, but nevertheless,

what we have now on on the battlefield that we can... somehow still identify and confirm this data, well if we take the available data, then we can express the formula as follows: for the offensive, they have all the necessary resources, but in order to achieve the goals of the offensive, here the question is actually open, because after all, if we take , well, here is an example with yesterday’s losses in defense technology, why does it look quite optimistic, and maybe some comments give a reason to hope in principle for a positive end to the case for us, well , because if you don’t take it in general, the russians have 2,000 tanks left by all occupation group and 1,000 of them tanks were stuck in the kupnitsky direction, well, it is obviously so inefficient, they cannot afford to lose tanks in the avdiiv direction, 90 armored vehicles in one day, well, you know, at such

a rate, they are two, if you take the data on the occupation troops, which are known, well, they will be enough for two or three such losses, further questions, therefore, if we proceed from the logic that, after all, the russians, after they try to take something by snoring, they do not succeed, they move, a very familiar, unfortunately, regime, that is, assault groups for limited support of armored vehicles, then the story arises here that they will be able to enter long-term hostilities for a very long time, several months, but the result there will be so very slow, well, roughly how wagner's pvk advanced in urban development. a hundred meters somewhere is targeted for a week, well, that is, they have such possibilities , here we just have to accept the story that although it seemed to us that the resource base of the russians there is completely undermined, it is falling, but to accumulate strength for such a large, although would be one offensive, or let's call it that, one big one attempts to attack the east of ukraine, which may last several months there, even cover the winter period, they have what they

will do after that, this question is open, because it looks like they decided to go to abank with their resource... base , that is, either the master or the lost, if roughly speaking, the western allies will already say something there about the formation of advantageous positions for us on the battlefield, well, it’s obvious and how advantageous positions on the battlefield as a basis for negotiations and negotiations, then it is possible now that , hoard all they have where they think to achieve unity in the battle, to try to impose some of their own peace conditions , because, well, if they have some contracts or some plans for the military-industrial complex with a horizon of 2025, well, they obviously understand that fighting at that time is materially - the technical base that they have, they will not be able to do it for years, a year and a half , yes, and if they start to advance so intensively, this base will narrow, so they will try to squeeze out a few months,

as much as they can , well, i think it is also, in principle, it is enough if a pragmatic vision of the situation, because most likely in the next two months we will see attempts to advance in such clear directions, kupyan-limansk, avdiivsk, it is still possible, well, what else, vogledarsky, not i know, ivan, well, vogladarsky, and not to move, and to move to the offensive in the south, well, because the logic is approximately such that if the enemy, well, if you look at it from the side of the russians, if the enemy counterattacks, after a certain time it will be exhausted, which means. it is necessary to go to their counteroffensive, that is, even try to attack our defensive positions there, they will clearly try, well, especially since - let's be honest, after a certain time, even if it is a couple of months, after achieving certain results in the south, our troops will forced to take an operational pause for recovery, then the russians will also try what they call there, cut off the flank, so the question is only, but i will repeat once again, here the question will simply be

to go to their offensive, there are resources, but how far the resources will be reached put... whole, well, i think they're going to do it in the near future , and we're going to see it in the near future with all their efforts, because this situation where they're on the defensive has become politically too long for them and it's just being done politically dangerous, that is, this offensive has such a certain political meaning, it is an attempt by the kremlin to show that they have the strength to attack, and that is why they will do it now with concentrated forces, well, the next few weeks, and avdiyivka in this regard is just the beginning of it process, you have to understand it, i think i don't know, thanks to ivan kyrychevsky, this is a defense express military expert, the situation, as you can see, has escalated again , precisely from the point of view of the russians, they have started offensive actions, well, we will, we will deter, well, what can i say, more than once already

they were beaten, their equipment continues to burn, but all their recent conversations about how