[000:00:00;00] today is a guest, and mr. oleksandr, well, actually, this is a temporary lull, after all , it is about resources, or rather about tactical ideas, as you think, both, the point is , you understand that avdiivka, here is a situation that there is, now it is very often asked in the information space, i see why avdiivka, why avdiivka, i will explain, because these are not the first attempts, firstly, secondly, due to the fact that the enemy had certain successes, due to previous assault actions , which, well , actually from the moment of the full-scale invasion, they received a certain position, i.e we, when we talk about the flanks, about the north and south, where they are, and from there it is clear, think that let's try, let 's succeed this time, let's, i want to remind you, the previous attempts to attack from the encirclement, the active intensification of hostilities was massive in august, in the middle of august, it was reported then, on march 23, by the

operational-strategic commander. in the direction of the troops , the ternav general said that the enemy was trying to surround avdiivka, it was the same in spring, it was also in winter, and they went out, indeed there, they have improved their tactical position and from time to time continue to do so, why is this still happening, because the proximity to donetsk, the proximity to the occupied territories, which are not the first year of occupation, and the proximity to the state border with russia, i.e. the arm, plus a global task viz to see that not only avdiyivka intensified combat operations in the direction, liman, near bakhmut is quite difficult, because our forces attack on the southern flank, have success, but from the north, the dumyvka district, the enemy conducts the same, sometimes from time to time assault actions, globally they want to withdraw our forces from the south, you understand that against the background of the statements of the ukrainian military and political leadership that we will be able to carry out offensive actions in zemka as well, well, they think so, and the calculation of the russian command, and if the ukrainian

forces yes. .. to break through, expand the bridgehead, and for example, there will be favorable weather conditions, well, frost, relatively speaking, in order to use tanks and armored vehicles, what to do, and if there are statements that we will, let's try to push back the east, let's lead in the east, because from their point of view, the east is more suitable, well, they will not go to the mines, they are placed in the south, they will not advance, and the more they try to advance, the attack fails, they counterattack in the melitopol direction, so let's go. .. to escalate here, where we can, and that is why avdiivka left, what went wrong with avdiivka, first of all, it was expected and predicted that they might come, but you see, even now the soldiers from there are explaining that they are waiting for the next one, that is, no one relaxes, the attacks are repelled, but there is an understanding that they are may repeat themselves, secondly, well, not only the enemy can set minefields, our forces also organized them, also made them, and what happened, all the armored vehicles went along

the columns well known to our units on the way, accordingly, drones, accordingly artillery, accordingly hymars, it all worked, it was stopped, and it's still stopped, plus, you know, what's special is that i noticed how different this attack is, now this attack attempt, from the previous ones, that they involve a lot of infantry, that's for these so-called butchers assaults, it is noticeable that the number of these infantrymen, these assault groups , is decreasing somewhat, it is obvious that when they now compare some direction with what russia can arrange bakhmut, for example in kupinsk or in avdiivka, they can try, the only thing that it seems to me that they do not have that wagner now, conditionally, i call it, those units that will be ready to go, die by the thousands, tens of thousands for these positions, and the redoubt, the redoubt is a partially reformatted wagnerian, exactly what the british ruzv and ours

journalists convicts and others, let's say mercenaries, let's see, they have not yet had the experience of being a storm, look, the storm is fighting in some areas, for example in the district of bakhmutu, there are other units that are the same, well there are those who went in the offensive in the lymansky direction, in the kupyansky direction, and they made a lot of progress, they receive a rather serious repulse, and it is clear that they are asking for aviation, the only thing that helps them is really aviation, which is problematic. indeed, there is also artillery, they use drones in the same way, so there is that certain differences, and this is already obvious, and that is why, i agree here with the conclusions of the analysts of the institute for the study of war, why , that is why when putin talks about active defense, repeating what shaigu, the minister of defense of russia, said a few weeks ago, they are insuring themselves , they understand that

there will not be any significant gains now, and it is not necessary to talk about the fact that avdiyivka is now... then the entire donetsk region, and then to the dnipro, i will surrender, as was the case with bakhmut last year, it is not necessary, they feel that resource not that, and so i think they hedge and talk about what needs to be done. actions, to be on active defense, by the way, how are you on active defense, if there is no ukrainian counteroffensive, then putin is once again contradicting himself, by the way, he contradicts himself in reality, if there is not, then what to defend against, the strategic goal that is currently being set, and why they direct their attention to the east, to get involved in the battles, they do not understand that there will hardly be significant gains, well, if something does happen, of course it will be propaganda to tell for three months, russian cheers, we have made a great achievement there, the goal of the sequel... the war, to drag it out, and this is a challenge for the west, that is, russia as well, they understand that, in principle, support for ukraine is currently a west, even if it is not as large-scale as we would like, but they are waiting, and

what will be in the spring, for example, that is, it is obvious, it is obvious to me that it will be, i have no doubts, but whether the atakams will come along with the b16s, whether the taurus will come, whether other types of weapons will come, additional tanks, armored vehicles that will give the opportunity to intensify our implementation offensive actions, in the middle of the night in the east, where it will already be determined by the command, that is, i just want to clarify right away, this is what is happening now in the avdiiv, lyman, kupyan directions, this is all an attempt to survive the winter, so to speak, to delay the moment so that on rooster, absolutely, only so, and to survive the winter, and without, of course, they will conduct assaults, there is no need to mislead anyone that everything... the situation there will gain a pause, no, they will try to storm, they will try to leave to attack, escalate the situation, it is not excluded that there will be some tactical successes, it can also be, well, i emphasize tactical ones, which will not affect

the strategic situation in general, that will be all, the goal is to enter the winter, see in what conditions, in what condition our units will leave for the spring, what will be our plans, too, they want to see, figure out, how we will act in the winter, how we will act in the south, in the east, well, in the east, obviously, we will be on the defensive, well, that is, with the exception of those directions where we can make progress bahmud, maybe such conditions will arise, it will be shown hostilities, the south, what will be the aid packages, how russia is struggling with resources, with what forces they will enter, and the most important thing is to wait, and what will happen there next year, the political situation, the elections that will be held in the states, the level of support for ukraine, in our here the situation is internal, and it is global. delaying time, but they can't stop the war, i don't believe that russia is now globally ready to say, that's it, we drop everything and sign some cease-fire there and so on, no, they're

actually waiting for that moment like them they think that there will be fatigue in the west, as they often say, and then they will take advantage of it, and that's why there is this shift, let's say, a shift of attention to the east, it did not arise from nowhere, but yes... they are in the positions where their forces, our troops see it, in the end that is why this enemy does not succeed, and therefore, let's say, in spite of everything, but, but look at the situation, what to do, this contingent of troops in the east, it is there, where to send this 25th army, which they brought, let's try, and suddenly we, well, suddenly we will succeed, this is also, in addition to the calculation, it is very often on avos, but let's let's try, it didn't work out in the summer, we remember, kupinsk, it's not the first time, it didn't work out in the summer, so. repelled the attacks, but suddenly now, maybe we will find some gap in the ukrainian defense, and suddenly we will manage to get through, suddenly we will create a wow effect and we will say media information and propaganda there, but look, you see, that’s how it is anyway

some are trying to create a wow effect, because cnn, for example, is the type of analysts who compare avdiivka with mariupol and say that even if avdiivka is surrounded, then she will be able to last several weeks in this environment, on which such comparisons are based. how appropriate are they in general in your opinion, first of all, i do not believe that there will be an encirclement, not because, let's say, the scenarios can be different, i explain, i do not believe that the ukrainian forces will be encircled, i will tell you , that mariupol is the only example during a full-scale invasion, unfortunately, when our forces were hit, but it was a different situation, the enemy was advancing from all sides, in avdiivka, after all, there is no such thing, and this logistics, line, where, if it really was already. it is not a difficult situation, i am almost sure, our units would have come out , i will only give you examples, but last year in the mountains, the risk of encirclement of our troops was colossal, our units came out , gold, where they were defending, they came out, severodontsk came out, lysychansk came out, in bakhmut,

they sharpened at least someone from our units, so that later russia would say, look, even though they wanted to, no, that's why i think that the ukrainian command already understands very well from the experience of previous and not only... full-scale wars, let's remember ilovaisk, recklessly, and i'm sure it won't happen, so i think that the comparisons with mariupol are a bit inappropriate, in the sense that... still, everything will be done to get out, and no one will leave , you understand, and give and give to the enemies, they would like, russia sleeps and sees it, open simple information messages and make a section to compare how much russian information space during a full-scale invasion, the warlords talked about the cauldrons of the encirclement, they would really like to, because for them it is a kind maniacal obsession to encircle ukrainian forces somewhere in some direction, but i... am convinced that this will not happen, let's talk about these

foreign trips of the russian leadership, putin is going to china, he officially announced there that he will take part in one belt one way forum, in beijing on october 17-18, and this will actually be his first foreign train trip, after the international criminal court issued a warrant for his arrest in march, this means that putin is no longer afraid to fly, will he fly to china, and in general, what to expect from putin's trip to china. what do you know, yes, to add to the themes and conspiracy theories that are well-loved, is he going to fly, is it one of his doppelgängers, yes , well, actually, i think he is, because it's unlikely that a chinese leader will lower himself to to meet, with putin, so in quotes, still with the real one, i think that yes, and, most likely, such meetings will take place, after all, now there are a lot of geopolitical processes, they too. and china feels it, that is, the middle east, and

the war against ukraine, and in the end this is it the opposition of the east and the west, whatever it is, it is there, and it is obvious that now it seems that china, you know, is so-so, now, if you compare it with a person, with someone, in white gloves, who is standing somewhere behind the scenes , he doesn't appear anywhere in public, he doesn't do anything to dirty those white hands. gloves, but at the same time, he is waiting for someone to do something in his interests, he will take advantage of the benefits, that is, he will receive, and it seems to me that china is very skillfully manipulating the processes taking place in the international arena now, using russia, using iran, north korea, well, russia itself agreed to such participation, starting a war against ukraine and making it dependent on china, they, and china is trying to play with all these factors as usual, that is, it is a very serious... let's say, a round of

international processes , at the same time, of course, without finally falling out with the usa, although this is a direct challenge to the west, what is happening globally is very challenging to the west, and therefore i think that now we should use the factor of putin, his presence, to show that in the end, well this it is a global project, one belt, one road, the brainchild of china, they subsidized a lot in it, well, someone must be present, russia is obviously, as a participant in this project, will also be present there. and of course, against the background of these processes that are going on now and the middle east and everything, they will try to use it as a platform, to demonstrate what it means that china is not alone or russia is not alone, it's all interconnected, and they rally around themselves a certain club of states, the formation of a coalition, the global east, that's what it seems to me the main challenges of all, not only for us, it is also for the west, although seeing the current setup of the presidential administration and what is being done, i see that there are sincere, let’s say

hopes, that diplomatically a lot will be able to be fixed from china, that is, no one throws out there, let's say, ways of diplomatic settlement of negotiations, involving china in discussions, and that's also good for us, because you always have to take into account the factor, and what if this player and this person in white gloves reduces his activity for a while, or can ... your activity, by the way, on the path we need, for example, he will want to influence russia in certain of his interests, well, that is, this is such a complex chessboard, so-called, there are a lot of global processes now, and the fact that xi jinping is ready to accept putin, i think this is such a clear signal of the west, you are now talking about geopolitics and the fact that washington is still ready to talk with beijing, to talk, to look for some ways for negotiations, but what about the dprk, well, because as long as putin is in beijing, lavrov will in

north korea, and we have already seen it there cooperation at the level of ministers of defense, and all this is happening against the background of statements from washington from the white house that after all korea , north korea did supply russia with weapons, will washington continue to observe this cooperation in cooperation in the military sphere, i think that well, let's count on the fact that washington or the united states will now carry out... strikes on military facilities of some, i think not, north korea, but this is a global confrontation, and the answer here is also in my previous answer to questions about china, i almost i am convinced that pyongyang would never have made independent decisions to strengthen military-technical cooperation with russia without the political will of china, and this must be understood, there is a certain connection here, and here, by the way, it is equally important, now there are a lot of reports about weapons, the most important thing is to understand what kind of weapons

they are, whether they are exclusively north korean, then the risks are lower, if china is involved and supplies something, for us the risks are higher, because it can be more weapons. there can be a larger nomenclature and so on and so on, and here it is i think that this building in relations is not only with north korea or there against north korea, anyway the key to pyongyang is laid through beijing, ugh, there will be a key to beijing, they will find an understanding, i am almost sure that they will press for so that there is no cooperation, but we need to push through china , for this we need to look for and find some common points of understanding, there are actually not so many of them, we see that confrontation and competition despite the dialogue between sha and china, they are there, and they will be, this is objective, an objective reality, and therefore we need it understand that we are entering the world of alliances, we will be in the western alliance , i think that is determined, and there will be an eastern alliance, as much as we like it, but it is now being defined to some extent, and it will be a struggle in different

theaters, political, diplomatic, economic, military, unfortunately, the same is what we see , well, that's why, i think it's not so, just today and there are not so many tools to force north korea to stop cooperation through sanctions, unfortunately, this you can say a lot, why it happened, even with 90s, but such realities for today, heard, oleksandr, i thank you very much for an interesting conversation, oleksandr mosienko, the head of the center of military legal research, was a guest of our studio today, we are moving on, the leader of the ruling party. and justice yaroslav kaczynski for the first time admitted that his party could go into opposition. he made the corresponding statement after the publication of exit polls for the parliamentary elections. i quote: whether we are in power or in opposition, we will continue to implement our project and we will not let poland be betrayed. i will remind you that according to exit polls, law and

justice won the race with a result of 36.8%. but this victory is not enough to obtain a majority in the diet. in return. the three other opposition forces, the civil coalition, the third way and the left party, have every chance of creating a majority sufficient to change power. my colleague, natalka volosatska, is following the elections in poland and the first reaction of citizens to their results, she is in touch with us from warsaw. natalya, my greetings, as in poland perceive the previous voting results, and actually, what changes are they waiting for? law and justice are winning, but the opposition has a great chance... to form a government. there is already talk of a change of government in poland, but i emphasize that the official results of the vote will be known only tomorrow. now we have the national exit poll numbers, and with them, according to these polls, peace is leading the race, but their 200 seats in parliament are not enough to

form a majority government. 31 mandates are missing. so, law and justice will be sought votes most likely among deputies from the ultra-right. of the anti-ukrainian confederation, as well as possibly among the opposition, and this search may last for some time, although , let me remind you, on the eve of the elections, the confederation categorically declared that peace would not unite, and today such a statement was made in the opposition bloc, the third way, but if the leader of the right and justice yaroslav kaczyński does not rule out that his party may be in the opposition, then prime minister mateusz morovecki looks at the situation more optimistically, in the social network, he wrote that peace will create a stable government that will be able to lead poland through various challenges. it is worth noting that the president will give the primary right to form a coalition to the winner of the election. instead, the leader of the opposition, donald tusk, says that the victory is theirs, because when united, the three opposition forces, the civil coalition, the third way and the leftists,

together can have 248 mandates, and this is quite enough to create a majority and form a new government. in this case, the party will be a powerful opposition to be reckoned with, the party can count on the support of president duda, who has the right of veto, also in various branches of government, in particular the judiciary , people probably remain loyal to law and justice, and how do poles react to the exit poll data, are they satisfied with the previous results, what are their expectations from the new government , we asked the residents of warsaw these questions, and i ask you to listen to what they say. i am not very satisfied, because i do not understand why law and justice took so many votes. i would like the government to be headed by the opposition. agreement, not quarrels, is difficult at my age to endure those quarrels, and that it would be good for young people, that the world would be open, and that they

could go where they wanted and live as they wanted. i like the previous results very much, because the position won. i am very happy and moved, today when i woke up, i felt such freedom in my heart, i feel that good things are happening, good changes in the state. i have this... feeling that politics has less and less influence on my life, so i can say that i am moderately satisfied, nothing bad happened, did something good happen, let's see if something good happened, let's see, the preliminary election results look quite positive for ukraine, primarily because the only anti-ukrainian party, the confederation, according to exit polls, gains a little more than 6% and can lead only 12 deputies to the parliament, however, according to opinion polls, in the summer, let me remind you , the confederation gained as much as 15%.

all other parties and coalitions that enter the parliament are in favor of supporting ukraine in the war with russia, so polish political scientists miss the fact that no matter who heads the government, polish-ukrainian relations must improve and relations will continue to be partners, but note that much will depend on the actions and position of ukraine. i would also like to mention the record... the turnout in these elections is almost 73%, it is the highest in the history of parliamentary elections in democratic poland, with such a high turnout the poles demonstrated great mobilization and determination, which in poland is considered not the greatest success of yesterday's elections. colleague thank you natalya, natalka volosatska from warsaw was in direct contact with us. does the ruling party have a chance to retain power, how events will develop in the near future in poland, and most importantly, what these changes mean for ukraine. next, we will talk about it with

yevhen magada, political scientist and director of the institute of world politics. mr. yevgeny, my greetings, good evening. greetings, good evening. until the day of the vote, the law and justice party not only expressed confidence that they would retain power for another four years, but even declared that they could retain a monomajority in the new seimas, where and why, in your opinion, they miscalculated. and what became this distinguishing factor in the choice of poles this time? i think it's natural that the ruling party, which has been in power for eight years, it says that it will retain power, you know, honestly, it's strange to go to the elections and show everyone that your knees are shaking and you don't know if you're going to win or not , so no matter what, but law and justice really, in the third place, led the list of parties that crossed the percentage barrier of eight and eight for blocs and five for parties, respectively, but

obviously did not gain enough to form a single majority or to form bi, but there is an interesting point here, well, first of all, i in fact, i'm waiting for the official results of the election, that is, i think, well, i have no reason not to trust the exit poll. which was made public in poland, but always and judging by the mood , judging by the situation , each and every deputy mandate will still count, that is , i see such a trend, and i think that peace will certainly try to take advantage of the fact that the president there is a person from the environment. pis, the politician of the pis environment , andrzej duda, and he will entrust, and formally he will be right, it is right and justice

to form the government, and then there will be, well, such an element temptations for other participants, because there are also blocs, that is, the third way bloc, and actually, well , the confederation, by the way, she very confidently declared before the elections, by the way, as an element of... the removal of the political from peace, that they and peace in the coalition will never leave, well, now the question arises for the confederation, whether it is worth risking early parliamentary elections, because this can cause serious problems, well, actually, many people are already writing about the drama of the current situation, but in general, you have now mentioned that that the president is still a candidate from, more precisely, a member... a native of the pis environment, uh, yes, thank you for the environment, which in general political processes, that is, society expects, you also

noted, and are there any chances for the pod to retain power, taking into account what you said? i think that there is a chance, but there will be one change, for sure: the next government will definitely be a coalition. if earlier law and justice could ignore anyone, now one way or another, if there is a certain, let's say, political somersault, and she can convince someone to vote for a minority government, let's say, if you get 231 votes for your government there, then you will still have to reckon with other members of the coalition, that is , there will not be a monopoly that would completely rule, although it should be understood that in the previous convocation, the senate was also controlled by representatives of the opposition to pis-sil

ugh, well, actually, one way or another, the premiership is mostly already predicted, i would even say, to donald tusk, and he already had the record for the longest tenure as prime minister, he headed the government from 2007 to 14 years , over six years, was the president of the european council, and if we recall his premiership, what was it memorable for ukraine, and what can we expect from the future premiership, or could the situation actually unfold in a different way? well, obviously, it was the period when euro-2012 was held and the victory of poland and ukraine. in euro-2012, it was a serious step towards a meeting between our peoples, because economic cooperation also developed quite strongly, of course, the poles themselves largely remember that during the premiership of tusk in april 2010, he died the then president, lech kaczyński, and nine dozen representatives of the polish

establishment in the plane crash near smolensk. it was, well, you know, an extremely tragic and dramatic situation, that's why tusk is accused there of having held negotiations with putin, but to me, frankly, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the prime minister of the country, who is not was on board this plane, came to speak with the then leader of the russian federation, that is, but economic growth... it was in poland then and it is now is observed in the same way, that is, one can argue there about its size and its indicators, but the fact that poland is absolutely justified in claiming the status of the leader of the central european region, i think, no one doubts this. mr. yevgeny, about economic growth, bloomberg writes that the elections in poland give the european economy, all of europe, a much-needed

boost, and indicate that the eight years under the power of the party...law and justice were marked by regular attacks on the eu, and in general, i will quote, they say that it is puts an end to the long chapter of populism and discord, or does this mean, in your opinion, that there may be a relaxation on the part of poland for ukrainian grain, including? i would not risk answering this question absolutely unequivocally, because, for example , the leader of the agricultural union, michal alechak, went through the diet on the lists of the civil coalition, in the spring, you know, he did not mince words when criticizing ukrainian grain, that is, here you have to understand what is really in the questions attitude towards poland, civil coalition and law and justice, well differed, i think, not fundamentally

, and in principle both the left and the third way, they also do not object to... to me, the situation between peace and the civil coalition in the matter of supporting ukraine reminds me of the following, you know, how the democrats and republicans in the united states states, they do not object to supporting ukraine, but strategically, but tactically, they can look at this issue in different ways, so it is between... the leading political forces of poland today. mr. yevgeny, let's talk a little more about what is happening in ukraine today the us special representative for the reconstruction of ukraine, peni britzker, arrived in kyiv, the corresponding entry of the us ambassador to ukraine bridget brink was published, and here it is worth noting that this is the first visit of pritzker to ukraine since the appointment to this position in mid-september 2023, and she also met with president zelsky, and according to her