[000:00:00;00] to be ourselves, and another fleeting moment of a terrible war that has been going on for centuries, but the whole world has already convinced us that our independence will not be grabbed, drowned, burned, shot, and the greater our hatred, the stronger our independence, the closer ours is: victory , independence, we prove every day. current data is the foundation for effective decisions. the state statistics service launches the first online survey. we collect information about the level of employment and unemployment among ukrainians. we collect thanks to you, join the survey and become part of the important ones state changes. to go to the survey page, simply scan the qr code on

the screen. easier than a valve. in the morning coffee, we are making changes, for the sake and thanks to each of you, do not scold the child for sitting with a smartphone, better take care of his safety, the child is watching his favorite cartoon on your gadget, a notification appears on the screen: congratulations, you have won million, the child clicks on the link, the screen starts rattling and fades, the child gets scared and hides it, your personal data goes to scammers to prevent this, on gadgets, which the child uses, install protection programs , tell the child that it is impossible to go to suspicious links , more effective tips on help/info, i will be a brave warrior, i will always be a brave

warrior, i will bring honor to my life, loyalty. i act in the interests of the ukrainian people, i act in the interests of the ukrainian people. on land, sea and forever, on land, sea and forever , always ready to fight, always ready to fight, i believe in myself, i show bravery i believe in myself, i show bravery, i never answer and i will not leave my comrades in arms, i will never leave and i will not leave my own. by arms, i fight for victory, loyal to the end, i fight for victory, loyal to the end, slavic infantry, always loyal, glory to ukraine, glory to heroes, glory to the nation, death, ukraine, above

all, ukraine, above all, sisters-in-law of victory, be who you want, you can be who you want, you can be who you want, you can be who you want , you can be who... you want, you like, everything is fine, like children, like a mother, i have more or less everything, well, almost, of course there is fatigue, of course insomnia, but in no case do not feel it, because the strength is here, inside us, and in those who are close to us, we will

definitely overcome everything. our team documents war crimes and we talk to people who have been abducted , sexually assaulted, tortured, infiltration camps, these are very scary stories , you can't get used to it , simple things help me, i try to put structure back into my life through planning, ditto it is important for me to feel in control of my life, through cleaning the workplace, washing...dishes, you see the result here and now, you want to know how to help yourself and others, go to the howar.com website, economic sanctions against russia are not working,

but they talked about this back on august 11... after that , as a material appeared in the bloomberg publication , in which it is specifically stated that the russian economy is recovering after the start of full-scale aggression against ukraine, the material also contains a forecast, they say, at such rates, and by the way, as much as 3% per quarter, for the so-called pre-war level, the russian economy can exit as early as next year, this column accent, my name is oleksiy fadeev, today we are focusing on the question of whether it is true that sanctions against russia are not in effect, our guest in the studio today is maksym gardus, an economic expert. good evening, mr. maxim. good evening. so, what do we have with sanctions, see the ministry on may 16, 2023. of defense of great britain published a report that russia has increased spending on the war with ukraine by 282%, almost three times, and during 2022, in particular, it is stated in the report that russia spent as much as 900 million dollars on the war

per day, an absolutely astronomical number. on june 23 of this year, as you know, the 11th package of sanctions was adopted, including strengthening bilateral multilateral cooperation with third countries in order to circumvent sanctions and ban the transit of goods and technologies through russia and strengthening export restrictions and eventually on august 11, bloomberg publishes a study, but the material is actually not very large, and it even provides a graph, saying that the russian economy is growing, the military economy of russia is growing more than forecast, despite more lenient sanctions after the biggest in five years. years, i am literally quoting the drop in the second quarter of the 23rd year, the gdp increased by nine to four, sorry, and nine, and as i said, they write there that if the trend continues, that the economy of the russian federation will reach the pre-war level already next year,

which is true this article refers to data from rosstat of the russian federal bureau of state statistics, but nevertheless, after the 11th package of sanctions, after all 11 packages, after a bunch of bans and restrictions, why russia's gdp is growing, and why did the kremlin triple the spending on the war against ukraine, what do you think? first of all, here you have to look at the very nature of the statistics, the fact is that during the year of the full-scale war, they classified a lot of things, and now we are much less, and we western analysts, see what is happening in the middle of russia than before therefore, there is more and more doubt in this article, in addition, gdp is a very tricky indicator, if you built a trench, it is also work, if ukrainians bombed it, and vp repaired it, this is also

work, it goes to the plus side, yes, but is it good for the economy, we can look at many other parameters, firstly, because, at the beginning of the war, they are so much for... nuts and after the ruble's failure relative to dollar, it has stabilized, but now we see a new long-term fall and already the reserves for a month, just for a month, the reserves of the central bank of the russian federation decreased by 6 billion, everything was announced for a month, but this is such, well, a very vivid example, what is more interesting about it why were they imposing sanctions at all? must work, sanctions are needed to reduce russia's ability to wage war. more than half of the russian budget is income in one way or another from the export

of hydrocarbons. this is gas, this is oil, oil products and a small share of coal in this. thus, at the same time, as already mentioned, somewhere around 30-40% of everything is classified, according to estimates, the expenditures of the russian budget go to the war. and that means half of the income from every ton of oil sold goes to war, just roughly speaking, so the sledge is designed to reduce the amount of money in the long run, which will be in russia, and we see that in one year of the sanctions policy, in principle, in eight years, however, by the 22nd year, the sanctions were, well, to be honest, more cosmetic, and in those who work with sanctions, they took into account mistakes, which were somewhat not, not weighed at the very beginning of the process, what we are talking about, the point is not that there is no russian oil in europe,

the point is that there is less money in russia, it is necessary, however, at first they thought that the embargo will work, or was it hoped for wider involvement in this embargo, but in fact... it turned out that there was a temporary deficit, and prices, instead of falling, rose, and not all countries, unfortunately, but solidarized with ukraine and the west and stopped buying oil, thus, due to the increase in prices with a decrease in physical exports, russia received more money for a smaller amount hydrocarbons this mistake has been taken into account and now the sanctions are acting in a different way, the oil ceiling has already been set at $60 per barrel, if we remember when

the war was just over. by 80, by 100, and when the russian propaganda embargo was introduced, do you remember those videos about the freezing eurolka, yes they promised that a barrel will jump to $200 a barrel, you can easily find quotes from russian officials on this, and they also promised that gas prices would jump to $2000 and at the height of the gas crisis, which was, ah, in the summer of that year, was exactly in august, when, well, there is a whole interaction with the import of gas pipelines, which go from russia to europe, country by country accepted these sanctions individually, we see that at some peaks there was a very significant increase, but at the peaks, then, all of them, underground storage, the whole of europe from... ahead of schedule

filled, then, europe on reached to the level of integration felt in history, when pan-european norms were adopted that if storage facilities are located in country a, then country b can be used, well, for money, and the pan-european policy was abandoned, and now europe is no longer so dependent on russian gas, i.e. these prices and this growth, which was temporary, because russia had a product that was temporarily stagnant, now everyone has reoriented themselves, gas, is imported into europe already by sea from far away from america, from north africa, from nigeria, from the middle east, from kataru, liquefied tankers, a lot of new projects, in germany, in spain, wherever there is a sea, well

, a lot of new projects, besides. europe has become more independent from russia, from russian gas, and also due to the fact that new pipelines have appeared, for example, our most friendly, or one of the most friendly states , poland, they did very well, which they started in advance, built an oil and gas pipeline baltic pipe, the baltic pipe from norway, and they completely refused russian gas, europe survived, please tell me. oil is the same story, oil from on the one hand, it is easier, a product that can be replaced more easily, because the oil pipeline is a friendship that exports a very small part of oil to europe, literally a couple of refineries in poland and a couple of refineries all over germany, mainly oil goes to europe by tankers, and in principle replace one tanker on another tanker, very easy. in addition, russian oil, it is very

specific and only a few varieties that are produced in russia, they are light enough that they can be produced for gasoline anywhere. basically it is a uurals brand, it is heavy and under it was sharpened only a few factories under this brand. this is a separate production, and now these factories are being reconstructed for other types of oil, that is, this situation will not be reversed, because money has already been invested, and they are being loaned to other types of oil from other regions, thus having invested money in this way, and so having invested time, and thus creating a temporary deficit, say, a jump in prices, europe became independent from russian gas and from russian oil, absolutely, but besides europe there is still a world, the world is in trouble now, price cap is called, the price limit is 60 dollars, and by the way, on december 3 of last year, when this

so-called ceiling was adopted, the head of the office , president andriy yermak, wrote that it was necessary to lower the ceiling to 30 dollars in order to destroy the enemy's economy faster, and why they did not reduce it to 30, why 60, if 30 is needed, because there were a lot of multilateral negotiations on this, and the event is democratic, that is, it is necessary to calculate ... everyone's opinion, it is russia that can wage war, even if it harms it and its population , and it is necessary for events to agree on a lot of different interests and a basket of different types and different sources of oil in each country is unique , it is clear that each country stood up for its interests and this consensus and some were more ready for diversification, some less, some have access to the sea and

they can easily accept their desks, no one has one, and this negotiation has been going on for a very long time, but they still agreed to revise the ceiling, and we are waiting for it to be revised next time, in the direction of reductions, and when can this happen? under the agreement that was included, they review every quarter, uh, well, so far it's been exactly two full quarters since december 2022, yes, but no one has reviewed anything yet, well, anyway, it's on the agenda, anyway, the question of reducing the ceiling will stand, uh, please tell me, this is exactly the democratic procedure that you have already talked about, which led to the fact that the decision on restrictions, on this price cap , was delayed for a long time, was not taken, it is the same, a lot of countries, they asked to be given more time to conclude new contracts with new suppliers, sign new contracts for new logistics, i.e. if

this country is located somewhere in the middle of the continent, it does not have a port, then you need to negotiate with someone about the lease of the pipeline or even about any...' someone's new bridge, for example, poland in this regard, germany helped with these two plants, which are oil wells, and now the oil comes from the polish region, the oil comes there, and it goes there, well, according to the new, it goes there, that is, for european solidarity to work, it takes some time to talk about everything agree, that's all calculate, everything worked without a fight. you very clearly described why the embargo is not suitable, yes, because it will lead to an increase, situationally there is a peak price increase, and it will lead to the fact that russia will have to throw less oil into the market, and sell less hydrocarbons and get paid for them

a higher price, and it will be more profitable for her, the embargo is a very cool tool when everyone follows it, that is, when everyone plays by the same rules, everyone plays. honestly, if russia didn't sell gas or oil at all, it would certainly be the best the most effective option than this nonsense with gray overloading, substitution, countries of origin and all that. please tell me, unfortunately, we do not see the readiness of all the 200 countries in the world to join the sanctions. are there any countries that you think of first that are not ready? in principle, all statistics are open and we know when , er, excess volumes of russian oil are diverted, it is primarily china and india, two very large gazan economies, which do not stand in solidarity with

the policies of the west, and refer to their own economic problems, on the poor population, on the need for modernization, on sterilization, on a huge agriculture that needs to feed 2.5 million. because of this, they do not join the sanctions, unfortunately, but china or india, or they are together, although they are not together , they have a bunch among themselves, well, this is a political issue , not an economic one, china and india can save russia from western sanctions by buying russian hydrocarbons, even at a discount, but they can't. and why, and first of all, the entire infrastructure of russia was aimed at to sell hydrocarbons to the west, they started with a big deal from the time of berezhnev, when gas pipelines began to be built in austria, er, when it was

the idea of ​​gas in the exchange of technology, europe, i send specialists, technologies, pipes , actually, even pipes. the ussr sells technologies and this infrastructure has been built in this way for 50 years, europe is closer, that is, there is less logistical burden, it is better there, it is a premium market, it was sold more and more expensive there, and it is very capacious, as we can see, gas production falls due to the fact that he did not go to europe is being sold, and the plans for expanding pipeline gas sales to china have not been implemented, talks about the power of siberia 2 have stalled, the chinese do not want to invest everything, moreover, recently they... signed a new agreement with turkmenistan

on expanding cooperation in the gas sector. as for oil, it is also one thing to sell with a short logistics shoulder with good freight conditions, that is, the lease of sea vessels and, the oil pipeline, scavardino dain, is called, yes, to europe, where it is close, and another half a world away, to lead to india, because in principle. now everyone says that china has not formally joined the price ceiling of 60 dollars, but in fact china has joined them, because this is the difference, it relies on russia, the contract price is the same, but the costs of transportation, insurance costs, which have increased, they they will remain dependent on russia's unearned profit, so this, this will not save them, if china and india do not save them, then they will. can those countries which, even nato and eu member countries, circumvent sanctions by buying

russian oil be able to please them. this is the same bloomberg it was february 23 of this year, aa wrote that at least 23 million barrels of russian crude oil and additional volumes of oil products were transferred from one tanker to another in the gulf of laconicos in greece, since the beginning of this year, well, precisely on february 23, and the greek authorities noted that this is its opportunity to intervene, because the activity takes place outside the six-mile zone, that is, the six-mile border of the territorial territorial waters of the country, what to do with it, which countries are able to circumvent the sanctions and bail out russia in this way? we see that individual economic agents, which are not countries, agents, yes, individual firms, which benefit from this, exist in any country, and here it is like any other. legislation, in general, the point is to develop such mechanisms that

will close these loopholes, and new, new packages of sanctions that are adopted, sometimes they do not have something that is very good, such as new groups of goods or new group large numbers , but there are a lot of them, the struggle with the schemes itself is bypassed, or because of this third countries, because yes you can dump oil in the sea, but it goes to the european market through two pipelines, through three pipelines, through four , oh yes, but sooner or later it is still oil at the berth in any, in any european port, in this way , anti-sanctions organizations should have more information, more powers, more monitoring tools, please, do you think turkish companies know more? information have means of monitoring, because on august 18, the woll street journal wrote that turkish companies purchased dozens of tankers for

transportation, which are already transporting russian oil. in general, you understand economic issues, and i understand that economic interests are important for every country, even for every person, but how is it possible at the same time, as turkey does, ah, to declare support for territorial integrity and sovereignty, the sovereignty of ukraine and for turkish companies to transport crude russian oil through the black sea or something else, the second time here is a very specific position, it supports everyone, and supports everything that is being done, turkey, this is a consistent position, for many years, it supports only those sanctions that were led by the united nations organization, it is against bilateral sanctions, by the way, by the way, this also applies to india and china, here they are united in this regard,

and it does not matter who is a member of nato, who is not a member of nato, what is important is the position that they, only the un, of course cannot impose sanctions against russia, because russia is a member of the un security council and has the right of veto, everyone who says that and we support only sanctions, he also knows this rule, but on unfortunately, for this, economic benefit prevails over...' solidarity, however, in other issues, turkey helps ukraine a lot in other issues, such as in the grain corridor, absolutely, but tell me, please, does it help, or does economic expediency prevail in in the next case, there is a country whose gas transportation system still transports, transits, russian gas, this country definitely stands for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of ukraine, because there is ukraine, when our system

stops transporting russian gas, they say that on the 24th, it will happen, but now ukrainian officials are talking about the fact that it is unlikely that there will be a...' contract for transit after the 24th, and now the contract is working, but the volumes are constantly decreasing, in order to in order for the contract to be terminated, it is necessary, not only political will, to contract volumes of gas from another direction, so that the western border of gas pipelines diverges from ukraine, in addition, it is necessary, and we need to sell from there at the exit, no, we will need to import gas, we will need to import because on alas, we are now able to increase nitrogen production during the war to be fully self-sufficient, in addition, we need to reorient the gas transportation system, it will be necessary, because it worked in one direction for 50 years, yes, it is a reverse, but it is not that to work all year, he was in some periods of time, in some accesses,

now it will be necessary to reorient everything and ensure that all days of the story. in ukraine, gas was, accordingly, the work of the operator of the gas transportation system, oil and gas, and others is conducted under the supervision of the ministry of energy, and the results will be made public in time, it's not as easy as screwing and twisting the stove on your gas stove in the kitchen, so believe me for such a yellow page, but it's more for the audience, or should i say what they say ukraine also helps russia bypass. sanctions, it transports, that is, russian gas, ukraine does not help to circumvent sanctions, because neither ukraine nor western countries have imposed sanctions on our turbo pipeline, besides, everyone understands that it is more important here that ukraine won than everything was fine and dandy, we need the wartime economy

to work, uh, and uh, besides we need to do our ee's. duties, obligations, in addition, the contract is multilateral, europe is also a party to it, because on this side russia, but on the other side, as far as i remember, austria, italy and slovakia, and hungary and poland, all, and therefore this contract, when it ends, will hardly be a new one, there is no procedure for entering into a new contract, well, speaking of receiving russia profits from its carbohydrates. and andriy ilarionov is a russian oppositionist to putin's regime, at least that's what they say about him, he says about himself, and he suggested in one of the interviews that he didn't suggest, but i would say yes, he remembered

such an order or such , you said a very good word, before recording the design of sanctions, for which... it would be possible to use the so-called escrow accounts, this is when the money from the sale of russian oil does not go entirely to russia, but part of it is transferred to special accounts, where, how said ilarionov, it is split, some small part can go into russia's pocket, but some large, significant part can immediately go to a reparations, restoration of what is in ukraine. it means that the russian federation destroyed it, which means that it is a wonderful second army of murderers and rapists, and so on . and such a scheme was very widely discussed last fall and winter before the decision on the price ceiling was made, but everyone came to the conclusion

that the price ceiling is still not more efficient, because the idea... account grafting is very effective when someone completely controls all exports from a certain country, that is, as it was with iraq, when there was an oil -for-food program, uh, in iraq there was, there were no opportunities, but to sell your oil all over the world, by the way, just now, we will see a certificate about this, here , unfortunately, in russia, it is, in this way... er, the problem with the simroship is the same as with the embargo, the same as from the body, only if 100% of the countries that buy russian oil agree to application of this scheme, only then it will work, unfortunately, when in the process of negotiations it became obvious that once again the western countries agree with this scheme, all the others do not, therefore it would not work, because