[000:00:00;00] i saw it at first, i was very scared, and now i realize that i miss it, that you get used to it very much , valerius marcus, and he said that war is like a drug, so it's true, if you killed on zero, you are being transferred somewhere back, you you, you just dream of going back there , and yet the girl has mastered drones and now quite helps those who are at zero, and so that the aerial scouts have something to help the military on the front lines, regularly collects funds for bird volunteer, larisa kovach, with help drone scouts detect enemy equipment and russian invaders every day. the worst day, it was just that, it seems that on one day there were three tanks, two bmp, it seems, 60

personnel, 60 people. a few hessians, a machine gun, we were informed that the arta is working somewhere, put on artillery, i think so, well, there is somewhere over there in that village, i look like this, and something, well, i don’t see artillery, but i see some movement, and i look, that we need a tank, and behind it another one, and they are like, yo, yes, today will be a big catch. noticed the personnel, it seems there are 10 people, maybe 15, and the artillery is like that, well, let's fire there a couple of times, the first shot, we hit, they entered the house, the basement appears, and some of them sat and smoked near the basement,

and it turns out that there is a basement, a house and such a shed, and we got into that barn, uh, we didn't know what was there, but it was burning very nicely , there was, the first thing i noticed was an explosion, it was very sharp, such gasoline fell, and then the fireworks began, very wonderful, i so i understood that there was stored bek, gasoline and such, guys, we are very. cool, very cool i like it very much, the war changes you, you become braver, much more mature, what you have here changes, that is, my circle has changed a lot, my social circle has changed a lot, because actually a lot of people have shown what they are

actually there is, you start to understand a lot more about... people, i like to dream about the future there, you become a realist, you understand that, what you can't plan there for yes , of course you ho, you want to live, continue to live, then there is the family, but you understand that at any moment your life can end. every time, i don't know, when i'm driving in a car to a position or from a position, or even when a drone is flying, and just the sky, you saw what a wonderful sky we have, it's just incredible, here you are flying a drone and you understand that war, explosions, but you look and

think, my god, what a beautiful country we have. after the victory, the girl plans to stay in the army and become the deputy commander for moral and psychological support. khrystyna parubiy, espresso tv channel. vasyl winter's big broadcast. two hours of airtime, two hours of your time. two hours to learn about the war and how the world lives, two hours to keep up with economic news and sports news. two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become like family to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, the events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for intelligent and caring people, in the evening at espresso. every week, the saturday

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the most anticipated event of the year, what is actually happening on the front? what are the losses of personnel and equipment on the battlefield. how the international community evaluates our successes and what are we lying about. moscow, from the flow of news coming from everywhere, we single out the most important ones, the world is closely watching whether there will be weapons for ukraine and what kind, and what are the russian occupiers whispering behind the commanders' backs? news, summaries of the week - this is an overview of only important events, significant, reliable events, this is analytics, fact-checking, professional comments, about this and much more in today's issue, about important in simple language, available to all viewers, congratulations, iryna koval is in the studio, and these are the results of the week on the espresso channel. news, summaries of the week, every saturday at 21:00 on espresso. the war is going on, and not. only for territories, it is also a war for minds. russia

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of the front. shot, liberty life frankly and impartially. you draw your own conclusions. congratulations you on the espresso channel. today, our military program will be devoted to things related to both strategy and tactics. when we talk about strategy, we will try to assess the current situation in which the defense and offensive of our army are now taking place and why the next year of the war, against the background of international changes, is considered by analysts to bring a number of new challenges and mysteries for ukraine. and when it comes to tactics, then, or a little more broadly, it is about the actions and approaches of our armed forces. forces that can significantly increase the losses of the enemy on the line

of the front, which is extremely important, it is about both weapons and training in certain directions, which fundamentally affect changes on the front line. so, we will talk about all this in different dimensions with leading experts and our military in the next issue of our military program, my name is serhiy zgurets, i am the director of the information and consulting company defense express, which is currently trying to cover together with the espresso channel. current trends in the defense system and in the defense-industrial complex, and now we are joined by valentin badarak, director of the center study of the army, conversion and disarmament, analyst and writer, mr. valentin, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear you, mr. serhiy , thank you for the invitation, congratulations, yes, i will start with the fact that literally a day or two ago, such a large analytical report was published on ukrainform , which was written by academician volodymyr horbulin, and you, as the director, at the army research center

of disarmament conversion, and this report is entitled the 24th military year of the mystery for ukraine. this report actually outlines the current situation and prospects. i would like you to be brief summarized for our viewers, what are the main risks, challenges and riddles precisely for the defense of ukraine for the next year? well, you probably need to start with what. that all this is happening, all the events are happening against the background of the intensifying rivalry between the anti-western bloc, which is now led by china , and actually the western democracies under, let's say, the flag of the united states of america, ukraine found itself right in the middle of this rivalry, with this war launched by russia, and therefore, strictly speaking, it is from

ukraine. a lot depends, because it defends the eastern flank of nato and serves as a deterrent for china, so it seems to me that the western partners and the united states, in particular, will do everything possible to prevent a reduction in aid, the first mystery, of course, is western aid, but the question in the fact that the biden administration has been very, very, i would say, limited in its capabilities for some time, we know that now 5.2 billion remained at the beginning of the war in israel. yes, october 7, so this is the second puzzle, exactly, this is the possibility of scaling war in the middle east, and therefore, with the first puzzle, it is important for us now , and we are all waiting for the election of the speaker of the house of representatives, it is very good that the candidacy of the republican

jordan, who, as we know, expresses anti-ukrainian theses and is is a trumpist, supports trump and wants to end aid, but it seems that he will not become speaker, we hope so and we still think that if the united states gets, and literally today, friday, biden will address the congress with the intention , about advancing 100 bln dollars for three countries at once, about 60 billion for ukraine and the rest for israel and taiwan. if it succeeds now, it will mean that in the 24th year, well , one of the huge problems related to the reduction of western aid will be removed, although, of course, there may still be pitfalls and various

currents, during preparation for the presidential election of the united states, and any, any, thing can be used. we know in the official document the integrated strategy for the development of ukraine, which the state dept published the other day, it was said for the first time in an official document that the states wish ukraine a victory, but in the end, there is a lot about corruption, about the underperformance of the kyiv authorities, so the second mystery is the scaling of the war, and now at this moment, well, the moment when a hospital was hit the other day... in the gas sector , it could be said that china is somewhat outplaying, today, together with all its supporters, the western bloc, however, not everything is so simple, and the fact that the arab world seems to have started to distance itself from the west, and it happened

leveling of these efforts, in particular, the main node station, which is saudi arabia, israel, did not take place, stopped and will freeze. this, but not everything has been said yet, the parties will fight, these two huge mysteries are the biggest for us now. mr. valentin, then, against this background, the question arises as to what ukraine itself should do in the preparation of the army and its defense industry in order to adequately respond to the risks and uncertainties that, relatively speaking, the next year may bring us, in your report you write about , that there are opportunities ukraine's achievement of technological advantages through independent efforts, what is it about, well, of course, it is not about the 24th year, it is probably about the next five-year plan, but big steps can be taken already in

the 24th year, it must be removed all restrictions for industry and provide opportunities to work confidently, at the same time it is necessary to choose a model for managing the defense of industry, which is not yet available, unfortunately, and where i see gaps now, the state now, well, there are moments where not all moments have been fully worked out, we know about auditing service, which interferes with the rocket industry, we know that the ministry of technology has apparently received new possible. but has not yet fully approached the creation of a model, and in particular, well, we proposed and consider these to be key points, the urgent withdrawal of the entire missile industry from any subordination, except for the ministry of strategic and industrial affairs, well, i understand that, let’s say, for kabeluch, there is now

a layer in the form of ukroboronprom updated, there is no longer such a huge obstacle as before, but everything is fine... the times have not come for the aviation industry either growth and, as a matter of fact, it should be removed from ukroboronprom, it is necessary to create an institute of general designers, which are authorized, because today and the most striking example, we have 200 companies engaged in drones, we have 30 types of various drones, but at the same time, the issue of an analogue of the shaheed has not been reached , yes, next, the ministry of defense and all other ministries that are currently working in the field of national innovative solutions should go, in such a way... to be the coordinator

of the creation of a new one, and not, strictly speaking, that's what now, only what is offered by the industry is being considered, so far no one, let's take an example, let's say, a ground robotic complex, we have 20 companies now offering, but these are developments that exist, and to create a new one, for example, to assemble, taken... a public-private partnership to unite and take weapons, the weapons complex already made by kabeluch , take basic, let's say, robots, robotic platforms, take the best, select navigation systems, communication and so on, who should do it, i think , which is according to minstratekhprom task, and the ministry of defense should buy what is already ready, they are in principle so inclined and for... the evaluation system is being refined, and we know that this is done jointly by the ministry of defense and the general staff, but we need to speed up

the work on resolution 345, because there are a lot of problems, a lot of problems, everything needs to be speeded up from months to days, and the ministry of technology needs to clearly deal with military-technical cooperation, better times are coming to us now, we even agreed with france to make a big strategic one. plan drone, but for this to really be an already implemented project, a lot needs to be done in the administration of the defense industry, it is necessary to speed up and demarcate, demarcate the situation, i believe that there should be two large financial streams, one stream for the ready-made, which is purchased by the ministry of defense and in in ukraine and beyond, and the second stream is all... what minstratekhprom will do within the limits and development of its own technologies and within the limits of military-technical cooperation, where

large projects will be worked out with such companies as rain metal, as bie systems, and others, bayikarina and so on, yes, this is what needs to be done, that is , there is a huge amount of work ahead, but it needs to be done very quickly, then something can actually happen with the technological gap with russia. and you mentioned russia, i would like to ask your assessment of the plans of the enemies, because in the language they say, whose says that the 25th year will be decisive in terms of the end of the war, why the 25th year, what is happening in the enemy, which there are approaches to the transformation of the defense industry, what should we pay attention to? well, the 25th year is shoigu's saying, we don't need much cling to it, because shoigu meant a political, political nuance , it was a political expression, because he himself is not in victory, we remember how he threw up his hands when popov, this propagandist, asked him whether

russia would win, he could not answer, and then he already started to say something there, he is not a military man and he does not understand the situation that is happening in general in the military sphere of russia, as regards the defense industry, there, of course, it is easier, because from the seventh year of appeared: from those managed by putin's friend, who worked with him back in dresden, and uh, so actually there are over 1000 companies now in one hand and it's very fast everything is done, what can they do, they are really aiming to scale everything, plus get missiles drones from iran for this shoigu went there in in september and tried to negotiate there, and actually, north korea will

help, as much as it can, but in the end, russia is also exhaling, and despite the fact that, despite the fact that there are still a lot of resources there, formally, we called it the 25th year, but formally russia can confidently fight with these resources for the next three to five years, with such approaches as now , in order to limit russia, it is necessary to introduce a complete ban on exports to this country, with the introduction of powerful secondary sanctions, for example, very classic, this morning there was a message that kazakhstan imposed sanctions and will refuse and will refuse the export of drones, already on the day kazakhstan, the leading ministry that deals with this, has already asked for it and says that no, we will use it. by general rules, as on the arms market and so on, this shows that many countries are hesitant, afraid, and

a ban, a complete ban, is needed. exports first from the side of the big seven, then the eu will support it, that is for sure , and then it should grow under the influence of sanctions, even countries that are geographically close, through which russia still re-exports various machines, will resort to this turkey, from south korea, from japan, there were such cases, from germany. and ending directly with some microelectronics and so on, so the situation it's deadlocked with sanctions here so far, but well, still, the western world, under the understanding that the threats are increasing, the 24th is a huge increase in threats compared to the 23rd, and so

i think the nuts will be tightened more powerful and there will be a transition from sanctions to a ban on exports, this is inevitable, because without this it will be impossible to restrain russia's industrial development, these are the forecasts. mr. valentin, we talked about what we expect now, what will be the volumes of military or military-technical assistance from the united states, other countries of the west, but somehow, the question of security guarantees or aid guarantees for ukraine, or rather conventionally speaking, took a back seat. so this is a component of the security guarantee for ukraine, an important element that ukraine should use and what could be the potential reaction from our partners? valid question, just yesterday i read what is already happening with the fifth of the g7 countries , the negotiations, and for us the key countries here will definitely be the united states and the introduction of the israeli model, we have seen how it works,

it works very powerfully, because even... ammunition, which was intended for ukraine and was stored in warehouses in israel, suddenly decided to transfer it to israel, and everything that israel asks for, everything is quickly provided to them, literally, even launchers for their iron houses, and, that is, anti-missile defense systems, that moreover, israel's commitment to joint development has advanced greatly, especially with the united states. joint developments, so this model is very suitable for us, it is very important for us if we go further and, in addition to the united states, reach powerful agreements, first of all, with the great britain, with germany, i have less faith in france, because macron is constantly wavering, he said that the eu should prepare and

support ukraine in case of the arrival of the second macron. i apologize to the second trump, but a few weeks later he already said that if the states are not able to help in full, then europe will not be able to replace, yes, then these fluctuations changed again and already now paris has taken to compensate, berlin has taken over, and just a few days ago he announced that huge help will be in ammunition, tripled production volumes from, well, three times more ammunition per month will be supplied from the 24th, i will not say about the figure so as not to be mistaken, and the production of caesar self-propelled artillery units has been increased from two to eight, i understand that ukraine will also receive there enough, that's why it's all very important, after all, europe understands

the danger more than the politicians in the united states understand it, i'm not talking about ... the biden administration, and that's why we see that security guarantees for ukraine must be in place, i'm nothing i didn't say about nato, because now is the time to talk about it it is even inappropriate, it is appropriate to talk about technological advantages, the supply of weapons and the inclusion of ukraine in clubs for the development and production of new weapons, this can happen, and we should strive for it, demonstrating the fight against corruption, demonstrating transparency and readiness to work according to world rules. mr. valo, thank you very much for your time, for your comments, for your evaluations, let me remind you that valentyn badrrak, the director of the army, conversion and disarmament research center, an analyst and writer, was in philklan. and then we will talk about other directions, which are already related to the tactical