see saturday politics club, every saturday on espresso. greetings, dear tv viewers, on the air of the tv channel, the program studio zahid, we will analyze the most important events of this week, this concerns both the situation in the middle east and the russian-ukrainian front. our guests today are retired british army colonel glen grant and polish politician and activist, myroslav cech. our first guest is retired british army colonel, military expert glen grant. glory to ukraine, dear mr. colonel, god save the king. god save the king. glory to the good. well, it

feels like we are on the verge of world war iii. in particular, we are talking about the colossal revival in the middle east, the united states of america sent an additional flagship from italy to reinforce two aircraft carrier groups, so we understand that everything is on the edge, so to speak. objectively speaking, this is far from the threshold of the third world war. in general, this is more like the second cold war. a lot is happening in the world, but that's all proxy battles like those of the cold war when people fought in africa and other places, for example. i do not observe that russia is going or preparing to fight with nato. they probably understand that it was a mistake. so at this point there are only two things that could lead us to world war iii. this is an attack on nato, or china's attack on taiwan. situation. which in the east can remain

autonomous. of course, if iran has a nuclear bomb and decides to use it, that will change everything, using nuclear weapons without doubt it would change everything, but at the moment i just don't see such a prospect. so we will see a continuation of the battle between russia and ukraine, as well as between israel and hamas and possibly even hezbollah. however, i do not think that geographical military expansion is possible now. to be honest, china is not ready either. before that, we understand that war is not only about battles, war is about resources, and on the one hand we have a certain fear that part of the resources that should support us can be directed to strengthen, for example, the american allies in the middle east, this is one moment, on the other hand, we understand that the western structure, the western defense system, it is moving into full dynamics, because it is really not only about russian aggression against... the country, but about

a possible major war, and accordingly , the western countries will no longer be able to pretend that nothing is happening and help ukraine with, i don’t know, a couple of leopards, that is, the western world must join in, otherwise it can simply be destroyed by one or another warhead that will fly, for example, from iran, for example, those or other arab militants can start something and a chain reaction will start, regarding the first point. i do not think that what is allocated to israel reduces the amount of funds allocated to ukraine, this will never happen. most likely, there will be different packages, different groups of weapons and everything else, because ukraine is not ready for what israel needs now, and vice versa, israel does not need much of what ukraine is asking for, so such conclusions should not be drawn. as for the readiness of the event, it worries me, because i am still i think that they did not take this

war seriously. instead, they behave as if the war is somewhere over the mountains, and it will not reach them. if the theater of war changes, it will be an unexpected blow for certain countries, including great britain, because i believe that most of the countries of europe have not properly learned the lessons learned. they view these lessons through their own cultural lens. we forget what it is to oppose russia and at the same time do business with it. it will not work, the event is not ready as much as it should be ready, now the situation is improving somewhat, but there is still a lot of work to be done. many countries, such as romania, the czech republic, the baltic states, have given ukraine a huge amount of equipment, and in the case of latvia, they have handed over all their air defenses and almost all their anti-tank missiles, still waiting for their replenishment, so we can only hope that nothing in this regard

will happen quickly, as the west needs time to replenish its reserves in case russia does decide to expand the geography of the war. techems, they worked extremely well the key story is that the united states finally dared to hand them over. we understand that this decision has been on president joseph biden's desk for an extremely long time. and here, finally, two dozen etecoms, far from the first model, it is better than nothing, but we understand that it is necessary to strengthen the supply of etacoms, and accordingly, your prospects and in general, as you evaluate, etecoms in order to, for example , break through the front line, and before that destroy russian logistics in the south. first of all, i'm not not sure exactly which models of atakams were shipped, there are about five different models and it looks like the older ones were actually shipped

. why such a small number? because this is the amount that can be placed on board several planes instead of shipping them by sea, which would take longer. that's my guess as to the number. that is, if it was possible to quickly provide 20 missiles, it will be possible, if necessary, to quickly provide another 20, and perhaps even more modern ones. the us is interested in not depleting its own reserves, because atakams is a key weapon in the us arsenal, and they do not want to scatter it. in terms of combat, the danger with attacks is that they are long range weapons and when you fire them you tend to hit targets that are at a long distance, can you break through the front with this weapon? the answer is no, will it help weaken the front? yes, but there is a danger that if there is too much of a time delay between the atakams attack and something on the front changing in our favor, it

will give russia time to whine about what caused attacks, pull up more reserves and ammunition. that is, it is about tactics. lots of fire, lots of maneuvers. you must shoot and act simultaneously on the front lines to create a complex, synchronized attack. if you just launch atakams, but do nothing on the front lines, russia will have time to deal with what happened and return to previous positions. of course, it will definitely not be easier for them from these missiles, the russians will not get too close, because ukraine will find a target and neutralize it. they will have to to think about how to act differently, so in the next few weeks, putin's generals will be scratching their heads over how to resist the attacks, so as not to lose such necessary key resources.

the first was great britain, yes, stormshadow, later there were scalps, french, then the united states with zatakams, well , accordingly, we are waiting for the german tauruses, but still we feel a certain dosage and understand that... cuban missile systems are very good, but this may not be enough to make a qualitative change in the south, the situation is extremely difficult, we are entering winter, we should not forget that only the infantry can occupy and hold positions, you can strike in the rear, but this will not change the position of the front line, unless you manage to destroy so much ammunition that the enemy on the front line will simply have nothing to fight, ukrainian planners are also now facing a challenge, they must make sure that they can really use the existing artillery in a targeted manner to help the soldiers in the brigades, because the most important thing is to enable the brigades keep moving forward and defend better. it is clear that russia is not

going to stop, instead it will attract even more people, even more ammunition and weapons. even if her weapons, her tanks are old, they keep shooting, that should not be forgotten, i think we missed the opportunity or the moment when russia could have broken, now they are stubbornly standing their ground and there is nothing left but to win their. but frankly speaking, it is now extremely important for ukraine to stop relying only on resources from abroad and start spending a lot more time and energy to build our own weapons and our own systems, because if this war... moves from winter to summer, it will be harder and harder to get equipment from the west. ukraine must find ways of quick compensation. there are weapons systems that ukraine could produce, for example, mortars. mortars are created quite quickly, as well as ammunition for them. if

each battalion will have six mortars, as for example in great britain, this will be of fundamental importance for ukraine. the military must think in a new way. what i am see now, it's still the old military thinking, people need a new thinking about how to act and use the available resources, you can't just rely on civil society. which procures drones, the war cannot be won that way, so a new way of thinking is needed, and i am afraid that the current staff will not be able to find it. dear mr. colonel, you were one of the first to boldly and clearly say that the russians are preparing for the so-called long protracted war. it was at a time when a lot of military experts were talking about a short one war there for several months, so there were a number of factors that demonstrated that. is not preparing for a protracted campaign, if we take the current phase, the current moment and

the current available resources, i think that the west has calculated the plus-minus level of the coefficient of effectiveness of the russian so-called defense force, which will be the russian vision of offensive actions, or perhaps the so-called active defense that putin said, they just keep doing what they're doing because in their minds they're winning, russia... they're used to not feeling sorry for people and losing a lot of equipment, and a great example of this was the second world war, in which their losses were colossal, and it seems that russia has no desire to stop the war. the russians now support putin like never before, and putin is putting all his energy and russian resources into this war, despite their weak intellectual and technological power, they will continue to produce many inferior things that will make life difficult. and it's about numbers, that's the power russia has, so if we don't break them over

the winter, there's a chance the war could continue another two or three years, and i am quite serious about this, russia needs to be broken, but now we are not doing it, we are only holding them back. yes, there are certain advances, but this is not a breakthrough, we need a breakthrough, maybe it will happen near kherson with a new operation to force the river, that is, we need to... act somewhere else, act differently, because strategy is about capabilities, at the moment , our capabilities are not strong enough to make the strategy work, even with atakams, even with f-16s, because the main capability is a hundred combat brigades, which today are not properly equipped to win this war, so we need to think more and better, in your opinion, putin already has, i don't know , a sense of the purpose of this war, right? when he announced a completely false so-called special military operation, we understand that

he was preparing for a short scenario, so now the scenario is long, possibly with the involvement of additional theaters of military operations, perhaps in the middle east, perhaps in the caucasus and so on. we very often hear statements from russian propagandists about the so-called existential war against ukraine. yes, we see a number of, so to speak, propaganda clichés, which indicate that this war is really for, well, their goal is to turn the aggression of the russian army against ukraine into a war of the entire russian people, that is , they would like it to become the so-called third world war for russia , some kind of new great patriotic war. you are right, however, i think that putin understands that without ukrainian resources, he cannot wage an existential war against nato, he needs ukraine, it is ready. human resources that would

fought for russia, this is what he is aiming for: he has already attracted many ukrainians from crimea and kherson, who are fighting on the other side of the demarcation line, this must not be forgotten, this is the scenario he wants, putin will continue to establish the world order, he will support anything that looks like hamas, as well as any war in the middle east or africa, because he wants to distract the west from the war in ukraine, and you can say. that he is already doing it, he is doing it when he places nuclear weapons in belarus, thereby taking the time and energy of the latvians and lithuanians, for example, because at the time when they should be training, they are standing and watching the border because there are hundreds of migrants crossing it, so he will look for all possible ways during the winter and also next year to divert the attention, time and other resources of the west that supports ukraine in this war, i don't know what exactly, but putin is already actively planning something, i have been repeating this since

2014 and every time i was right, something will happen soon and we just need to be mentally ready, and returning to existential war, putin can really lose it only in ukraine, and that is why ukraine should take this very seriously, because something can happen that will definitely not be beneficial. implementation of the strategy of the ukrainian military command. dear glen, has the concept or vision of the war in our key allied capitals changed now, at one time there was a feeling... that our friends would like to localize the war and therefore were in no great hurry to allocate important, long-range and powerful resources, now the question is aviation and so on, well, the question is not only about the quality of those resources, but also about the quantity , well, what kind of formula for waging war and possibly reaching one or another end to the war are

now seen by our friends in the pentagon, in london and possibly in berlin. there is a whole series of... important things: first of all, you have to understand that any formula must be based on trust, if it is not based on trust, then nothing good will definitely happen, no formula will work, this trust is built by , which was given to ukraine and which was used properly. the important question is whether does ukraine fight corruption, does it fight in the legal field, because this is what trust is based on, joining nato depends entirely on political compatibility in certain aspects, ukraine has military compatibility, but in other aspects, such as logistics, compatibility as such absent at all. the fact that you have to take all your equipment to other countries to repair it suggests that there is something wrong with the logistics system. so, the situation with military compatibility is more or less, but political

compatibility is extremely weak. ukrainian ambassadors are weak, except for the ambassador to the united states. and that's why you can't create a relationship that would eventually lead to a proper understanding of what to do to help ukraine. so trust is above all else and until it is strong and 100%, there will always be a lack of confidence as to what to do next to support the country? it's like a boy's mind, i'm telling everything here, it's important to understand that this is the main problem of ukraine. there is no point in just constantly asking for something. you have to create a relationship that is based on how real relationships that will be strong and last for years. currently, in many aspects, this is unfortunately not being done. we have already a few weeks as the new minister of defense. it is about rustem umerov. we understand that there are many challenges, i don't know, this is about a careful study of what the previous defense minister did, what he didn't do, but in any case we understand that there are

states allied to us, yes, that regularly send signals, if yes, an attempt... to generalize what the ministers of defense or the chiefs are talking about now general staffs of the allied states, i do not know the united states, britain, france, poland and so on, with the new composition of the ministry of defense, what strategy do they propose and how quickly can it be implemented, in particular, it is about logistics, ensuring ukrainian production within our state and for its borders and in general, whether some complex advice is given, i don't know. how can we strengthen our defense industry? i am 100% sure that everything they are talking about is everything you and i have been talking about in all our interviews. not i think something will change, because structural things will always remain structural things, and logistics will always be logistics. logistics must be designed and created, and people

must be trained. they will definitely discuss how to improve training and that structures and combat structures should be updated as well. this is all something that everyone understands, what is being done in all other countries, so of course, for the new minister of defense, it will be something new, but definitely not for the system. undoubtedly, the industrious one gives a lot of advice. and returning to trust, i will add that unfortunately there are no american or british generals who are really close to the system, although that is only within the limits of my knowledge. ukraine does not use the potential of all the retired officers who are in the west , who came after the cold war and were involved in other wars, for example, in the persian gulf war, almost none of them were invited to share their experience and help, because the system allows you to be only a private a soldier, which means that the military and intellectual capital of the west is being wasted , which is a great pity. thank you very much,

dear mr. colonel, for this extremely informative and honest conversation, i want to remind our tv viewers that now the retired british army colonel glen grand, a well-known military expert, god save the king, and glory to ukraine, glory to the heroes, was working for them on expresso. and in conclusion, i will add one thing: we can do it, but there are difficult days ahead for which we must be ready, one cannot think that victory is easy, russia is preparing for a protracted war and this is what you need to think about. thank you. the child caught the virus, mother vera has faith in dekasan, inhaled dekasan gets into the lungs where the dekasan virus works, mother vera is happy, dekasan inhalation is against. works against viruses and bacteria, and dekasan is indicated for angina, dekasan is an inhalation antiseptic. pain can become an obstacle, walking stairs, not with my knees, for knee pain, try

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forces, former national security advisor to the president of the united states, donald trump. herbert mcmaster. current topics, pressing questions, authoritative comments and forecasts in the information marathon project with vitaly portnikov. every sunday at 20:10 at espresso. daily. every hour, every minute we we get a lot of information. the most anticipated event of the year, what is actually happening at the front, what are the losses of personnel and equipment on the battlefield, how does the international community evaluate our successes, and what is moscow lying about. from the flow of news coming from everywhere, we single out the most important ones. the world is closely watching whether there will be weapons for ukraine and what kind, and what the russian occupiers are whispering about behind the commanders' backs. news, summaries of the week - this is an overview of only important events, important, reliable events, this is analytics, fact-checking, professional comments. that's about it

many more in the release today. about important things, in simple language, available to all viewers. greetings, iryna koval is in the studio, and these are the results of the week on the espresso tv channel. news, summaries of the week, every saturday at 21:00 on espresso. our current guest is myroslav cheh, a member of the polish diet of the second and third term, a public figure and a well-known historian. glory to ukraine, myroslava, i congratulate you. glory to the heroes, congratulations. well, poland has survived a major political earthquake, but the situation is not fully resolved. yes, the key story, who will be to nominate the prime minister. well, we understand that the president will do it, but without assistance. from the side of the polish parliament, the newly elected, we understand that the situation can be complicated, and accordingly i would like to ask you what

a large staff turnover will look like now, yes, because we understand, the executive power, it is extremely important, and it is unlikely that president andrzej duda will leave to transfer huge powers into the hands of their, so to speak , big opponents, the executive committee of the civic platform instructed donald tusk to form the government and nominated him to the position of the prime minister, and, accordingly, two other political parties or political coalitions , the left and the third way, they said that therefore, in view of the victory in the framework of the opposition trump card of the civil coalition, it should nominate a candidate for prime minister , and that candidate will be... donald tusk, the president of duda, of course, can hypothetically, when we speak, nominate someone for the post of prime minister, but his approval, i.e. a vote of confidence,

he must... get in the parliament , without the parliament, thank god, there is nothing in poland is happening because poland is a parliamentary republic, not even a parliamentary-presidential one, but a parliamentary republic, the position of the prime minister in the constitutional system of poland is very strong, it is essentially called a chancellor system like the german system, so that by the position of prime minister the prime minister, in fact, has enormous powers, he has full authority to fulfill them. authorities in the country, now regarding the political calendar, it must be said that the president has 30 days according to the constitution to convene the first meeting of the newly elected parliament, the parliament is already bicameral, and then the president entrusts some politician with the function of performing the function of the prime minister, and he has 14 days to gain

the vote of confidence in the parliament, in fact, in the diet, in the lower house, in the lower house, the only problem that can be here is that the president wants to say that he is not interested in the opinion of the political forces of the opposition, but next week duda invited the representatives of all the political forces that came to the diet to him, ugh, this is political forces and alternately with they will be talk about the political configuration and the three political forces will come with a unanimous decision that their candidate for the position, they are otherwise, they signed a coalition agreement, they have 200 there 48 mandates in the diet, and their candidate for the position of prime minister is donald tusk. well , now i can imagine that andrzej duda will start talking, and i don't like it, or something, and we have the winner of the election, he will say.

president andrzej duda, law and justice will consult with yaroslav kaczyński, well, i am also considering such a hypothetical scenario, after that, they will try to form a coalition based on law and justice, but even with the votes of the confederation, they will not be able to create the majority necessary to form a government, and if, for example, such an idea as to block the opposition nomination coalition from the civic platform of the prime minister and move to before the elections, new early elections, this scenario is at all real, no, just like the scenario, too, the nomination of another candidate, like donald tusk, i think, he, well, his probability is somewhere, i will, well, let's use it, it's a percentage somewhere on 10, no more, the probability that president duda will appoint, nominate

some other politician, like donald tusk, to the post of prime minister. because donald tusk said that he is already going to go to brussels , to talk about unlocking money of 30 billion euros from the economic recovery fund after covid-19, as it is officially called, the european union created a huge fund, again 30 billion of them were reserved for poland, the peace government managed not to use those large funds, which are insane funds for the entire economy the economy is waiting for this money, it is lying around, and it is only about observing the rule of law, that these new governing coalitions will be very easy, because the slogan, precisely the attraction of the rule of law was one of the main ones during the election, election campaign, that is, tusk is no longer waiting for whether he will be appointed, nominated by the president for the post of prime minister, he is just going to decide. to

brussels, will meet there with the leading politicians of the european union, talk with them, return to the country and say: people good people, we are already doing our job, and why does the president not want to recognize the reality that more than 11 million poles voted for the opposition during an unprecedentedly high turnout in the parliamentary elections, well, you yourself know that andrzej duda has been the president for eight years and have a very bad opinion of him, then the game, well, is very weak, with weak cards for the president, but realistically, when the president will not behave like a head of state, but instead as a political functionary of law and justice, he will only lose, well, but still there is a certain danger of this, and we would really like to see poland destabilized, let's hope that everything will go according to a normal civilized scenario, well, on

the other hand, sometimes i remember yaroslav kaczyński, his rather sharp