[000:00:00;00] forced to simply react to our actions, he cannot force us to react to his actions, and the one who reacts to someone else's actions, he is in a less favorable situation, in this case we dictate our conditions to him, how numerically the russian army prevails in the bakhmut direction now, i remember, when the wagnerites were still concentrated there, it was a multiple preponderance of russian military units, which now, well, i won't tell you , of course, how much it prevails, because i won't tell you the number of our group that is here , i i can say that there are quite a lot of enemies and i want to point out that there are not many numbers, but i can point out that we are on the offensive, we know this doctrine that the one who defends is on the offensive, there should be one in three

forces, but you can look... to see at least our liberation of kleschivka, andrivka, we can see here that we liberated our territory directly, those settlements with smaller forces than the enemy was on the defensive there, that is, we can say that the skill of our fighters, our tactical literacy, our commanders, calculate everything correctly, take correct asymmetric actions, and we, with a smaller number... can liberate those defensive lines where the number of the enemy is greater, well, that’s right, i thank you very much for joining our broadcast and in told in detail what is happening in the bakhmut direction, oleg kalashnikov, captain, head of the press service of the 26th artillery brigade named after general khorundzhy roman dashkevich, was on radio svoboda, we talked about the situation in

the bakhmut direction, thank you. and so on, me has already partially announced this topic, which relates to shells, the european union is behind plans to provide ukraine with a million artillery shells by march 2024, and this potentially gives russian forces an advantage in the supply of ammunition, bloomberg writes, citing its unnamed sources, who according to the journalists , they are familiar with this situation. at the beginning of the year, the european union approved an ambitious plan to supply ukraine with artillery units. supplies, according to which within 12 months, the defense forces should receive 1 million shells, first from available stocks, well, and then through contracts on joint purchases and an increase in industrial capacity, and according to sources and documents with which the bloomberg agency became familiar, this plan is currently implemented by 30% of what was planned, and since ukraine's counteroffensive reaches with limited progress and allies preparing for a protracted

war, supplies of ammunition promised by the european union are crucial to help ukraine and keep up with russian production, bloomberg writes. and according to some estimates, the following russian factories will produce 2 million cartridges this year. in addition, moscow received supplies from north korea and continues to search for soviet-era shells, the agency notes. well , in the meantime, the usa, japan and south korea confirmed in their joint statement that north korea is indeed supplying russia with military personnel. equipment and ammunition, the amount of weapons that russia has already received from the dprk is not known for sure, there are only some figures, for example, according to the white house, from september 7 to october 1, north korea transferred to russia 1,000 containers with military equipment and ammunition. just a week ago , estonian intelligence reported that north korea had transferred 350,000 artillery shells to russia. the kremlin

is preparing for a long war, stated in estonian intelligence. and now, the intelligence of great britain reported in its review that russia is probably already using on the front the ammunition that was transferred by north korea. if the pace of deliveries is maintained, the dprk may turn into the main supplier of weapons for the kremlin. like all this history will be marked directly on the front, we will continue to talk further. andrii krameru, a military expert, reserve officer of the armed forces of ukraine, has already joined our broadcast. andrew, good evening. congratulations. you, i'll start with the topic of ammunition, i just quoted the head of the intelligence center of the estonian defense forces and he stated that russia has already received 350,000 artillery shells from the dprk, which will obviously be used in the war against ukraine, ukraine, with the current intensity of the front, how much a significant reinforcement for the russian army, well, just for understanding people who are not related to the military, does this mean that there will be more shelling, or what does it

mean at all? er, this means , well, look, the russian army currently spends , according to various estimates, from seven to 10, sometimes, well, from seven to 10, on average, from seven to 10 thousand shells. per day, it is felt that they have certain problems both with their quantity and with them , respectively, well, not only with the quantity of the ammunition itself, but also with the quantity of serviceable barrels, because because of, well, considerable wear, there is also soviet multi-techniques, well, it is very fast, that is, an artillery barrel is like a new thing , whether it is rifled or not, it doesn't matter, it 's like that, you know, the thing is very timeless, and especially if it is old. and with its extremely active use, it wears out quite quickly, due to which it first loses its rate of fire, accuracy, as a result it becomes dangerous, well, in reality, the gun itself becomes

simply explosive, there are problems with this, the artillery of north korea, as far as we know, has not yet supplies, but nevertheless, taking into account, well, quite significant, problems with with their own projectiles, by the way, the russians also want to... say right away, they will face a problem with the production of artillery ammunition, because it, it arose, due to global problems with the required amount, the production of the required amount of gunpowder, namely the various types of gunpowder that are used there , that's why this problem arises, and russia will also face it, that's why there are phrases about 2 million per year, this is actually a very, very ambitious goal for them. eh, and here is the question that now arises, how much can north korea put, even if there conditionally all, they are, well, if their own reserves are never completely exhausted, because they have, their military doctrine, this is not

the daily security of war, they are still actually in a state of war with south korea, but now the big question is what the number of shells north korea can produce, in order to. supply to russia and the second question is very relevant: what types of military equipment or ammunition will north korea supply, let's say, well, that is, it can be supplied directly from china via north korea, so it is worth monitoring, at the moment 350,000, that is, in fact, when there was a statement that iran supplied a batch of 1 million shells to the russians. yes, they increased the intensity of artillery fire, these were precisely the deliveries during the active phase of the defense of bakhmut, this is the end of february, from the end of february to the beginning of may

of the 23rd year, as a result, the russians used them quite quickly and in principle, well, if iran exhausted to produce one's reserves there, it is so much, well, quite limited , in fact, the amount can be, that's all, as a rule, you know, such quantities are in the million. these are those stocks that many countries have been accumulating there for decades, and production was not so good. therefore, in principle, the situation now is more relevant for russia, the problem with the wear of barrels, it remains, it is not solved in principle, but in terms of the number of projectiles, they can hold out like this, with the production of projectiles , both our western coalition and the conditional eastern coalition will face a hundred challenges. probably that's what we'll call the eastern-authoritarian coalition there, it will be in general, well, in principle, as we see, it's going now certain in this war, let's say, a change in emphasis, that artillery is very good, but still we see that artillery

remains a certain archaism, we are switching to drones, barrage ammunition, and even russia is now the most active use of tactical aviation , but i remember that literally six months ago, probably a lot of military personnel, from the front and military experts who monitor the situation, they called the lack of ammunition for the ukrainian army as one of such key problems, then it seems that it was solved , and today bloomberg writes that the european union is lagging behind these plans, they promised to provide ukraine with a million shells by march 24, now they say that the plan is only 30% fulfilled, if or whether you see a problem in the fact that the zsu will again face a shortage of shells, and or... can it be compensated, conditionally speaking, only with drones , which you just mentioned, you can’t compensate with drones alone, because after all , there is a different level of delivery, or rather, a different, different number of combat units, which you can conditionally transfer there to a distance , well

, a 155-mm artillery shell, that’s right today up to 55, even up to 60 km, which he there, well, conditionally carries in himself, 60-70 kg of a combat unit. so that's a pretty heavy story, and that's, well, it's as of today, it's impossible to replace it, completely, in terms of the shortage, well, first of all, we also have the supply and it's now, i'm more than sure that it will be strengthened by the united states of america, including, despite the conflict in the middle east , plus, europe, if we compare the volumes that are supplied to us now by 30%, it is 300,000, it is still much more than we put there, for example, for the whole year 2022, plus production, any production there even of the same projectiles, you know, any production process, it has - the dynamics to

increase, because if there is a goal, and the goal is in a country with a developed economy, with a developed scientific and technical base, to increase the amount of production, this means that this amount of production, it will grow steadily, and therefore it is okay, if, for example, they do not fulfill the plan by the month of march, then they will fulfill it on a conditional basis.. . there is 80%, it doesn't matter, this will be enough for you taking into account the supply of the united states, this will be enough for the use of the armed forces of ukraine, and we fully understand that if our partners understand that, unfortunately, this is not a short game, but a long game, they will increase production, and accordingly, our combat the potential will grow, andriy, there is also the situation at the front, we also wanted to discuss this topic with you, the whole week ... we have been following the events in the avdiivka direction,

what do you associate with the escalation in avdiivka and in that direction, well, the russians are looking for the russians needed to find a point of application of force that would allow them, our forces are constantly forming reserves, the supply of heavy armored vehicles continues , accordingly, we do not know, there are different applications, but as we can see, we usually, well, previously received applications from our partners and almost all the equipment, because they were trained there faster, maybe we will receive there earlier , we will receive, even airplanes, god forbid, at the same time it was necessary to find a point of application of force, where, where they can create tension, which to fight with which we will be forced

to transfer to our forces for defense, and not for the further offensive, ah, and such a point was eventually chosen, well, first it was kupiensk nodal, there was such a powerful attempt to attack there in august, then at the beginning of october, almost synchronously with avdiivka, an attempt, an active offensive attempt, they did not bring almost any results there in principle, and then there was an attempt again at avdiivka, a rather large amount of equipment was thrown there, that is, for today, it can be said, such a second the wave of their attack on avdiivka passes, and in order to ensure it, for example, they removed part of their army units from the lyman direction and transferred there, an insane amount of equipment, just record-breaking use of tactical aviation with corrected aerial bombs, there is quite a lot in

principle, in principle, they see for myself, the encirclement of the city itself is a good prospect, for them, you know, it’s like that for them, well , i don’t know why for their command, it’s just an obsessive idea to fix, to surround, to surround somewhere, as they say, to create boiler, if we look at the front line, well, avdiivka for this, in principle, there is the most promising direction, elementary there from the point of view, that is the distance they need to travel and gain a foothold in order to. to sharpen avdiivka, and now they chose, chose this direction and decided to advance along it, even as i said, they are already collecting additional forces there in order to ensure a conditional continuation of the offensive pace, they are carrying out, as always, what we have seen, the complete destruction of the city, that is, well , you russians know, there is not a single city there, for which there were really battles, after the first one there the waves of the offensive, they... did not capture

a single city, lysychan severo-donetsk was completely destroyed, bakhmut was completely destroyed, maryinka was completely destroyed, now avdiyivka is completely destroyed , ugrelidar is completely destroyed, well, that's their tactics, and now they are extremely difficult there the battles, our fighters note, are really just very large accumulations of the enemy's equipment, i hope that if our command promptly... will be able to deliver a sufficient number of such effective means of destruction there, and accordingly, well, this should happen if, well, it is again for now anyway in fact, the russians have no particular place to transfer additional forces from, because they transferred from there to leman, they actually abandoned the offensive, to transfer from kupyansk - to refuse, to transfer from near bakhmut, to pass further, there

are already battles for kurdyumivka, according to opportunities for the armed forces of ukraine, to remove the source from the zaporizhzhia direction and also to give opportunities for us, so the battles are... everything that the russians have is really thrown there now, prospects, well, let's not evaluate it somehow now, well, it is necessary if only watch. but, andriy, yesterday some military experts analyzed the situation in the avdiiv direction and there were discussions about who ultimately controls this terekon position, i understand that this is the highest position in that area, now there is an answer to this question. isn't there, look, this position, it was there from the very beginning, it was not controlled there by us, not by the russians, it's a gray area, because what is the tserekon position, it's , let's say, a very high hill, but what, absolutely not, well terekons, they, this is their

peculiarity in that there, there is no, even, in let's say, terekons don't even conditionally contain any green areas, that is, there's nowhere to hide, it 's just such a big, let's say, a big hill, which is a completely open area, from the point of view of the armed forces of ukraine, it's actually not there was, because it is impossible to create them there, the russians are now trying to create for themselves a bridgehead for a further offensive there, but the ukrainian artillery, as far as i know, at the moment is not effectively letting them in there, that is, they trying to fix on it. at the moment, our artillery is knocking them out of there, let's see who is in this confrontation, if, that is, again , it is impossible to say that someone has an advantage, or that the russians have come out and completely taken control of it, they are trying to do it , but at the moment it is also

impossible to say that they have already done it 100%, established themselves, deployed there, we will continue to observe, this is such a duel, well, we will observe who is in it, well, let's say this, you are in it... goes winner, plus it is important to understand why they are they decided to leave, right, during their offensive at the beginning of march 23rd, when they also tried to pull our forces away from bakhmut through avdiivka, they were right where terekon is, they didn’t even try to enter it, because their command understood you know the difficulty and without, well, such a small prospect of such an attack, they tried to storm avdiivka, which is also actually, well, let's say a city conditionally built on a different terrain, they tried to take the high ground, as if to start fighting for the city, but they did not succeed, you can do it perfectly to see in this video the terrain, which with itself is a terrecord, only sands, so there is nothing, only sands, that is, you understand

that there you need to take cover, create a position, go through with heavy armored vehicles, well, it is simply very difficult and impossible, the only chance there is somehow possible drag the artillery there and from it as if from a commanding height to effectively control a larger area of ​​artillery, so i will not comment on the prospects of this struggle for the time being, but to say that the russians there were completely under the terekon, the terekonons deployed, no, i will say more, even if they will take it, then theirs, well, their promotion should be through the battles for the avdiiv koksoh. combine, and what is a heavy, heavy combines and what they are, it is, well, excuse me, actually a position, and it is controlled by the armed forces of ukraine, which can be very well turned into a fortress, what we saw in azovstal, while that this fortress , it will not be fenced, well, in azovstal there is such

a not-not-so-good example in this case, because if i understand it, the territory will be fenced, then what is the difference, fortified? che is not fortified, and here it is again, the difference is that azovstal , it was not sharpened only conditionally from the sea , that's right, and here the position of the avdiiv coke chemical plant, it is on its own, it is actually the center, next to it is the main logistic transport interchange, which will allow it cannot be controlled for a very long time in the environment, with the correct construction of the defense, of course, that is why even taking terekon already today, the russians, realizing there , well, certain... good prospects and the plus location of the avdiiv coke chemical plant , intensified their efforts to advance further here is a conditionally deterekon north of the avdiiv koko chemical plant further to the west, i.e. go around the avdiiv koko chemical plant and then go out, let’s say, bypassing it to important transport nodes, at

the moment i see an even greater danger, thank you very much for the detailed explanations, andriy kramerov , a military expert, reserve officer of the armed forces of ukraine, we talked about the situation at the front and talked about the prospect of a shortage of ammunition, both for the ukrainian army and for the russian military, what consequences this could have lead, thank you. very much, i encourage you to subscribe to the pages of radio liberty on the internet, if you watch us on youtube, please like this broadcast, in this way you will support our work. well, ukraine will be in nato no later than in 5 years, at least that is what the former director of european affairs in the national security council of the white house believes, alexander vindman, my colleague, sashko shevchenko asked him where such optimistic... forecasts come from, listen . if ukraine remains outside nato, it will be there another war guaranteed. russia will still be

capable. even, probably, in case of defeat , in which russia will go at least from donbas, the issue of crimea will be resolved, i think that this is also a big challenge, a military problem for ukraine. but i think it means that russia may still have aspirations to dominate ukraine, and the longer ukraine stays out of nato, that's going to be a problem. therefore, it is in the interests of europe, it is in the interests of nato, to take ukraine into the alliance. i'm talking about five years, because i'm frankly pessimistic about that it will take so long. to go through the invitation stage, to go through the approval stage of all the member countries, it will take some time, as we have seen with the example of sweden and finland. therefore , it is a big challenge, but my hope is that at the next nato 75th anniversary summit in washington, there will be an opinion that the west should accept ukraine into nato. this will not mean immediate

acceptance, but there should be a clear invitation. now there is a lot of talk about the possibility of a world war, that there are countries that will enter the conflict soon, and not only ukraine will be there. do you share this opinion? i think about it. in context, if ukraine begins to lose, it is unlikely to be next year, but if the war continues until 2025 or even longer, which is a less realistic scenario, because russia is waiting for global geopolitical changes that may occur during next year's elections in the usa, but if it continues after 2025, then i see the baltic countries and possibly poland, who can enter this war for their national interests, and you make sure that ukraine does not lose and russia does not get closer to their borders, especially

poland. i look at it in such a rationalistic sense, i'm not sure who else is interested in siding with russia, especially now that russia doesn't look like the clear winner. then, iran will enter the war, north korea, it is unlikely. well, now to news and events in the united states. in the united states , the newly elected speaker of the us house of representatives , mike johnson, said that he would support increasing aid to ukraine, but there are conditions, among which he called accountability. i will remind you that yesterday, late in the evening kyiv time, the ward representatives of the united states were led by representative mike johnson of louisiana. 220 republicans voted for johnson's candidacy for the post of speaker, although in reality, he would have needed 217 votes to win. the election of a new speaker came 20. two days after the house of representatives voted to remove republican kevin mccarthy from office for the first time in us history.

the washington post notes that johnson is opposed to aid to ukraine. the publication recalls that johnson was one of 57 american lawmakers, all republicans, who voted against a $40 billion aid package for ukraine in may. earlier, johnson also called for increased surveillance by the us. ukraine, well, in his first address to the house of representatives, already as speaker, johnson declared the need to protect the southern border of the united states, reduce the american national debt and unwavering support for israel. our country's greatest ally in the middle east is under attack. the first bill that i soon to be brought before this house will concern the support of our dear friend israel. we are late with this. a little-known conservative from louisiana, mike johnson will be the least experienced speaker of the house of

representatives in decades, this is how he is written. american press. journalists also remind that johnson is, or at least was definitely an active supporter of former us president donald trump. johnson, in particular, led the legal defense of trump during his impeachment in the house of representatives. johnson was the author of the failed appeals by 126 republicans in the house of representatives to get the supreme court to overturn the results of the 2020-20 presidential election, in which donald trump lost. well, after johnson's victory, journalists asked the current president of the united states, joe biden, if he was worried, so to speak, about the track record of the newly elected speaker. if you win re-election in 2024, are you worried that speaker johnson will try to overturn the election again, no, why not? i know the constitution. trump, meanwhile, applauds mike johnson's victory in new york, by the way

now the trial of trump is going on, i will remind him of the accusation. in fraud, but during a break in the hearing, trump went to the press and commented on the election of johnson to the post of speaker. he will be an excellent speaker of the house and we were very happy to help. i have known him for a long time, he is a great leader and he comes from a great place in louisina, we will be proud of him. well, ukraine has not yet commented on the election of the american speaker, at least not yet. i. let me remind you that in the absence of the speaker, the congress could not hold a vote, including a vote for decisions involving support for ukraine. now we can say that this process is unblockable. some representatives of the republican party in the comments of cnn expressed the opinion that johnson will put a joint package of aid to ukraine and israel to the vote, as actually proposed by joe biden. let me remind you, we are talking about 106 billion dollars, of which

more than 60 billion is support for ukraine for the next year. well, as i mentioned earlier. mike johnson said he is open to negotiations on providing aid to ukraine, but under certain conditions, nbc reports. among such conditions, he specifically mentioned accountability, but not only it. we will now talk about all this in detail. oleg shamshur, ambassador of ukraine to the united states of america, 2006-10, has already joined our broadcast . good evening. good evening. we are already certain, we can state, without a doubt, that the new speaker will support israel. our dear union. that's what johnson calls israel, and what about ukraine, what are your forecasts here , as you understand, making forecasts in politics is quite difficult, i would say yes, a priori, based on johnson's political baggage, we we know that this is a person who consistently

voted against providing aid to ukraine. that's one, two, he's a committed trumpist , so i'm not going to repeat what you said, i'm just going to point out that he came into the house on a wave of support for trump after he was elected and actually from the beginning he established himself and behaved as a person absolutely loyal to the former president of the usa, and what he has become now... before the aid to ukraine, before russia's war against ukraine, we know very well, i.e. all of this, shall we say, uh, creates, well , i would say, skeptical uh, pessimistic, pessimistic expectations for the election of johnson as speaker, you more that the speaker

is actually the conductor of the entire legislative process. the house of representatives, they cannot do without him, he decides, or rather, what laws are introduced for consideration, how the voting goes, that is, when it takes place, that is, in fact, and we have seen it, the absence of the speaker, or the attitude of the speaker to this or that problem, weighs a lot much, the fact that he has now stated that he is ready to support the provision of aid... of ukraine, it is really furnished with requirements, conditions, and we will see how he will really behave, especially since he is, no less, and maybe even more than mccartney, depends on the extreme right wing of the republican party, its faction in the house of representatives, which, as we know, is very

actively, vocally opposed to...