[000:00:00;00] lost during the pandemic, they have been recreated, a lot of new jobs have been created because there is a law on large public investments in infrastructure reconstruction, there is a law on large public investments in the microelectronics industry, there is a law on large public investments in green energy, and this creates a very many new jobs, these laws were passed in the first two years of biden's presidency at his initiative, the pre -convening congress, and this is precisely what contributed to the fact that a lot of jobs were created, without unemployment fell because people get a job with a good salary, but there are other factors, i.e. inflation, which usually interferes and which annoys people, but what will happen to us next year is very difficult

to predict, and of course , that these economic things, they... will be decisive in the presidential elections, because if the economy is in good condition, and people will feel that their life is getting better, or that it will be better than the current one the president, because he can still do something, as biden himself says that it is necessary to finish what was started, people will vote then drink if they feel that on the contrary their life is getting harder. that as conditions deteriorate, they may vote for trump. and it will be, these will be the main factors, it will be precisely at the elections next year. mr. igor, it is about these elections, now the internal and external life of the united states of america, it still revolves around the upcoming elections, and the news of the last day is that the former vice president of the united states in the trump administration,

mike pence, withdrew his candidacy with presidential race, in the 24th year, his short quote, this is not my time, we always knew it was going to be an uphill battle, but i have no regrets, why did he do it and did he have even the slightest chance? he had no chance, it was clear from the beginning, because the republican party is the party of trump today, and it pushed the case very hard, pence is a classic conservative republican politician, and he was found by trump in the vice president , a candidate for vice president, well, because trump was not a classic republican politician, but those who managed trump's election campaign, well, they believed that he needed a candidate for vice president, who is known as such a classic conservative, so was pence, well, he is like that, and he is .

, he is such a sincere conservative, but such people simply have almost no place in the modern republic... politics and they definitely cannot run for president, because they simply will not have support, and penz de facto he withdrew his candidacy, so what it's just that he doesn't have the money to continue his campaign, and because of that he can't even qualify for the third round of republican presidential debates, because there are two criteria, how much does it mean in the polls he is currently getting, the rating according to the national polls and how much money did he collect in his election fund and election campaign, this is a very expensive thing , even when the candidate is preparing for the primaries like now, because the country is big , you have to go to all the states, you have to have election headquarters in all states must spend a lot of money on advertising, must

have a staff in election headquarters. people need money, that is, for this you need a lot of money, you need to collect money, money can be collected by those candidates who are popular, it is not necessarily that they are given money by some large corporations, billionaires, but simply by ordinary citizens who support certain candidates, well, it is obvious that pence has no money, simply because the majority of registered republicans, and there are 39 million of them, a large majority simply do not support him, supports trump, and that's why he, he can't collect. poland, well, this is how our republican politics has become here, it is mostly ultra-right, and with such a classic conservative as pence, there is practically less and less room for them in it, and they are actually forced to stand aloof from what is being done, it's a pity, you understand, because, because there needs to be, there needs to be

healthy political competition when... when biden and trump are competing, well, biden is a classic politician, and trump is not politicians in general, and there is no healthy political competition, this proves it. about the problems in society, big, big problems, and here's trump, despite the fact that he has been charged with the 91st felony, in addition, he has a long-standing, legal process where he is accused of fraud for many years, and he is still the most popular among all republicans, meaning that they take it in the primary with a presidential candidate, there can be no court. well, yes, and the americans will stick to populism, or not? you you know, there is, there is populism in this, but i would say that it is not so much populism, it

is just such an ultra-right wing, that is, there are many people who profess such very right-wing, ultra-right views, and these people for years, there wasn't a presidential candidate that they wanted to vote for, if you and i look at how many people voted for trump, in '16, and especially in '20, when he lost the election, and how many people, let's say, voted for romney in the 12th year, for mikein in the eighth year, for bush jr., twice, we'll see, that trump, having collected significantly more votes, he actually, i will accept by his appearance ... he simply made it so that 20 million voters appeared in the republican party, who were not there before, that is, they began to go to the polls and vote for

trump, but before they didn’t have anyone to vote for, they didn’t vote, it’s just that i personally met such people, ah, that is, in the eighth year, for example, they didn’t want to vote, for me, well, obama was called a communist, and mykein was called bad candidate, did not want to vote for him, that is trump is a good candidate for them, and these people also have such very, very right-wing beliefs , although we can of course consider trump as a populist first of all, because trump hardly has any political beliefs at all, but here are people with such serious ultra-rightist beliefs, they see him as their flag and slogan and idea at the same time , and they support him, and mr. igor, as for the conviction of the candidate for the position of speaker of the house of representatives, like his

convictions, especially with regard to support of ukraine, mike johnson, the newly elected speaker of the house of representatives, he i would, i would characterize him as an ultra -conservative politician in terms of his views, but look, he is currently elected speaker, when a person holds a high public office, the position of speaker of the house of representatives is the third in the hierarchy of positions in of the united states, after the president and vice president. and a person, if he wants to be a speaker, he can stand by his beliefs, political, ideological, philosophical, but if he wants to be a speaker, then he is doomed to to look for various compromises, compromises with fellow party members, compromises with the minority faction, that is, with the democratic faction in the house of representatives, compromises with the senate,

with the majority of the democratic party in the senate, which means he has to negotiate with the leader of the democrats in the senate, schumer, and with the leader of the republicans in the senate by mykolelov, because in the senate bills can only be adopted on a... party basis, since in the senate 60 votes are needed to pass any bill, and i have 100 senators, and let's say in the current senate has 51 democrats, 49 republicans, so anything to pass in the senate needs bipartisan support, so johnson will have to do the same in the house, because if he, if he wants to implement... the ideological , ideological agenda of the republicans, he will not succeed, because it is possible, it is possible to adopt some bills with a republican majority, but if they are

unacceptable to the senate, the senate will simply will not even be considered, they will never become law, so if he is the speaker, what is important for him is that he is the speaker, and not an ultraconservative, and not that he has such a... such and such and such beliefs, he is doomed to be the speaker, then, then he has to conduct negotiations, then he has to take into account that it is realistic to adopt so that it becomes a law, which bill can really, really pass through the house of representatives, and through the senate, and which can be signed by the president to become law because the president can also veto something that he does not like, and to overcome the veto, 2/3 of the votes are needed, which is practically possible, again, only on a bipartisan basis, and in order to overcome the presidential veto on any bill, and therefore johnson if he wants to be the speaker and

a successful speaker, then he will have to conduct all these negotiations and he will have to put the bill on aid to ukraine to a vote, which i did not like, that he immediately divided, so joe biden proposed a week ago to pass a bill on aid to ukraine and israel and taiwan, in fact there is no, there is no word taiwan , well, but it is clear that there is money for taiwan and to provide without greater security the southern border of the united states and to accept it all in a package, because biden wrote that it is important to ensure the national security interests of the united states, johnson immediately says that nothing, what he wants, wants to pass a separate bill on aid to israel, and to ukraine, well, it is necessary, it is necessary to help ukraine, it is not possible to admit that putin could, but there he has 12 conditions that you need

to be there to check where the money goes, well , you know all that, this is the traditional, traditional mantra of many republicans, that allegedly the money does not go there, well and where can the money go, if with this money, let's say, hymers are purchased, missiles for hymers, atakams, and it goes to ukraine so that ukraine can liberate its land, invaders, all this, all this, all these conversations, well, maybe it's just that republicans like them, they want to to show in front of certain sections of their voters that they care so much that money is not spent anywhere, i will simply tell you that it is impossible for american budget money to be spent in the wrong place, because if, if 1000 dollars , you will go somewhere wrong, not 1000, 100, wrong place, you will go somewhere, there will be such a scandal. what will happen will be the resignation of the minister of finance, and even there, and

the impeachment of the president may come, i just want to tell you, tell you, i want to remind you that when trump stopped aid to ukraine in the 19th year, which was approved by congress in the budget, that is, if trump stopped implementing the budget, then he was impeached for it, in the same way, if the administration spends money somewhere in the wrong place, which is in the approved budget, then it will be. an incredible scandal, so this is being followed, there are many, many people who are following this, inspectors general, their services, auditors, including auditors sitting in the american embassy in kyiv, who are checking where the money goes, what the united states are listed in ukrainian, this is very important information for those people who are in doubt about further help to reassure them mr. igor thank you for your input for

the interesting operational information as of now let's pay attention to the air alert map you can see that the air alerts are spreading , in the north and east, to the attention of residents of chernihiv oblast, sumy oblast, poltava oblast, kharkiv oblast, as well as residents of the oleksandriysk community of kirovohrad. region, as noted by the air force of the armed forces of ukraine, the activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed and exists the threat of the use of aviation weapons, for the western regions of chernivtsi, ternopil, khmelnytskyi, has been extended, so the threat of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles by the enemy, so friends, please pay attention to this information, and now we will talk about the financial affairs of ukraine.

the national bank reduced the discount rate from 20 to 16%. at the same time, they reported that the interest rates for their operations with banks are maintained. the change in the discount rate occurs within the framework of modernization of operational design, monetary policy, transition to the system of the so-called lower limit i would like to remind you that the discount rate is one of the main tools with which the national bank sets a benchmark for banks regarding the value of funds raised and transferred for the relevant period. the european union has approved plans to transfer frozen russian assets to ukraine. the european commission plans to put forward legal proposals in early december - financial times reports. western sanctions immobilized at least 300 billion dollars of the russian central bank. currently , the procedure for transferring these funds to our state requires a legal basis, on which the allies actually work. meanwhile, a special fund financed by taxation

of russian assets frozen in the country was created in belgium, its volume is 700 million euros. strongly support the initiative in estonia as well, prime minister kaya kallas called on the eu to return russian assets to kyiv, saying that russia should pay for the damages caused by russia. ivan us, chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, candidate of economic sciences, is with us now, mr. ivan, good morning and thank you for staying up, congratulations, good morning studio, good morning viewers. mr. ivan, please tell me, the reduction of the discount rate in peacetime and in wartime is somehow different, you know, this is an indicator of economic life in the country, and the fact that the rate is decreasing means that there are actually no prerequisites for

it remained at the previous level, and i would say more that during, well, let's say almost since the beginning of this year, many economist friends said that our rate is too high, that is, as a rule, look, there is a discount rate and there is an inflation indicator, and in order for inflation not to grow, it should be a little higher, what do we have in terms of inflation, here we take the statement of prime minister shmegal, he says that inflation at the end of this year will be in the corridor between eight and 9%, that is, if inflation, let's even take the upper limit of 9%, then it is certainly desirable that the discount rate was, well, let's say 12%. at the same time, it lasted for a very long time 25 and everyone said that it was impossible to develop the economy when such expensive money was gradually reduced, now decreased to 16%, and there is information that this will not

be the last decrease even this year, that is, somewhere in december, it is expected to be 15%. so let's see, i think it's also at the end, because next. year, i hope that the 12% that i mentioned is already a prospect for the near future, why, because we really do not have any prerequisites for maintaining a high rate. mr. ivan, i would like to make more specific, here is the fact that on december 15 the regulator will reduce the discount rate to 15%, deputy head of the nbu serhiy nikolaychuk said in particular, i have the following for you the question is, can the events of the winter affect this decision, or is it just voiced one of the options? and of course, this is one of the options, that is, we will see how ukraine ends the autumn, that is, how november will pass, and how december will begin, that is, of course, everyone

expects hypothetical attacks on energy, energy facilities of ukraine, at the same time, you know, the difference of this year from the previous one in that, firstly , we have something to defend, i mean anti-missile defense, secondly, we have something to answer for, and it will be a question for russia whether they should to launch an attack on ukraine's energy sector when it is possible to receive, let's say, a strike-response, by the way, an interesting point, here we are now talking about the discount rate, that ukraine is gradually lowering it, now december 16 will be the 15th, in russia, on the contrary, they increased the discount rate the rate up to 15, just the other day, and this is, as they say, a movement in the opposite direction, that is, on the contrary , they will try to save the economy, therefore , on the contrary, they constantly raise the rate, that is, here is another example of what the dynamics are now in the economic war of ukraine of russia sir ivan, and i will continue your opinion again, not only in russia they raise the discount rate, but

also in the united states and the countries of western europe, they also raise the discount rate, and we, on the contrary, lower it. please explain how it crawls? because we set it too high, the 25% that stood, well, as i mentioned, a lot of people said that it was too much, you know, because in, let's say , i attend meetings of the bankers' club of ukraine, and they took place during the entire wartime, let's say so, a lot the bankers said that, you know, it’s confusing, this figure is too much, that’s why it’s precisely because we have such a large... a priori accounting rate, it needs to be lowered, which also concerns the russian federation, then we can see there how it has already approached for the third time the ruble exchange rate, when from... for one dollar they give 100,100,100 rubles there, and as for the united states of america,

the situation is not the best there either, but you know, i would not compare here with the russian federation, why, because after all after all, there are rather standard economic processes that require, let's say yes, the intervention in this mechanism, as far as russia is concerned, the situation there, as noted in the september report of the central bank, that there is a problem. in the country's gdp, when the production of goods and services, which has now developed in russia, has shifted from the sphere of, let's say, consumption and investment to another, that is, they are silent as if they understood that this is the production of military equipment, which, as they say, is burning in the flames of war, that is , it does not give anything to the economy, so there are different problems, but as they say, the approach is the same, to increase rate, mr. ivan, now ukrainians wake up, turn on telethons and you and i have been talking about the discount rate since early morning, and they think, my god, what are they talking about,

mr. ivan, if in simple human language for ordinary ukrainians, deposits, loans that will change, they will feel this correlation, of course, look, the discount rate is, in fact, the rate at which the national bank will give money to banks, banks... in turn, will be able to give people loans, that is, people, the population of ukraine will be able it's cheaper to take loans, i'm not saying that everyone in our country lives on loans, nevertheless, loans solve certain issues, and now, thanks to the reduction of the discount rate, the loans that people will be able to get from banking institutions will be lower, and here is a direct correlation for you, please between the reduction of the discount rate and the population of... ukraine, which simply can , let's say, pay less for servicing the loans it will take, but these

changes will be felt already next month, from november or from december, and it will depend on the banks, that is, if they immediately, i have to mind you, private banks will lower, let's say, their requirements , it's not that they will say, you know, we will be able to give loans at lower interest rates, that is, you will have to... you will pay less in the final, that is, i think that this the immediate reaction will be a month or two, no more, and i will stick to the olenkins, olenkin's word is deposits , mr. ivan, please tell me, in your opinion, well , there are people who have money and want to keep it, where is it better to invest it now i saved up a little, besides me, we still have many millions. this is definitely an eternal question, that is

everyone is looking for the best option, well here, of course, as stated in the legislation of ukraine regarding the definition of entrepreneurship, one’s own fear and risk, i.e. here one really needs to see what conditions will be offered by banks, and by the way, the fact that money is becoming cheaper, this means , that in principle, banks can, on the contrary, increase the interest on deposits , that is, they will reduce interest on loans, and on deposits to make them more attractive, knowing that you can always, let's say, get refinancing from a national bank, because it it will be cheaper, and there may be better conditions, that is, we have to constantly monitor what offers our banks give, we have them there , if i am not mistaken, there are 69 banking institutions working in ukraine, so this number is decreasing, at the same time, you know, it another perennial question is how many banks are needed in ukraine, because they love to ask this question, at the same time, you know, we still have a market economy, so as many as the market

will determine, we need as many, uh, in general, we have a banking system, well, strong, stable, you know, i think so, despite the fact that, well in fact, we have it on the example of even the history of ukraine, even 2000, even the fourth, it took a year, how many conversations were there that now the banking system of ukraine will face the big ones so far, and this is already, if we take the fourth year, then there are almost 20 years, then it did not face any such colossal problems that led even to the default of ukraine, we did not have any default, so you know, in my opinion, the banking system of ukraine is quite strong and yes, of course, it is not perfect, at the same time it demonstrates , let's say so, with its history, its credit history, enough strength. now, i hope that among our viewers there are employees of the nbbu, and when you said about

the default, they knocked on wood somewhere. mr. ivan, and now, as for something else, it seems to me, about the discount rate, everything is clear and comprehensive answers, about the possible funds that ukraine will receive, is that the european union approved the plan to transfer the frozen assets of the russian federation, and we are talking about 300 billion dollars for a second. please tell me, well, the amount is too large, when this plan will be drawn up and the funds will go to ukraine, we do not know, but suddenly it will happen, what will this amount change for us , you know, well, this figure of 300, which they have been talking about since the beginning of the war, by the way, i heard there is an option of 320, that is, i understand that there is clear information no, this is primarily how i will have a reserve for the restoration of ukraine, that is, my vision of how the future will be, let's say , after the victory of ukraine, this will be the plan that the european commission presented back in may of last year, called rebild ucrayn, and

he will actually need money for it 300 billion, they will most likely be deposited with him, as regards other issues, we see how the european union, it is now constantly looking for an intermediate version between giving and not giving these frozen assets of the central bank of russia, says first about income taxes, then about incomes, that is, so far even you called the figure of 1.7 billion, which belgium mentioned, i immediately explain why belgium... because euroclin is located in brussels, it is a european stock exchange, and there are this is the majority arrested russian assets, that is why so much is being said about belgium in this context, that is, now it seems to me that lawyers are really looking for such and such approaches in order not to run into lawsuits from the russian federation regarding these assets, and we

are only talking about the central bank, and i would like to remind you that in addition to the central bank of russia, there are also funds of sanctioned persons of the russian federation, and no one discloses this figure, at the same time there are leaks in the mass media that the figure can reach one trillion there, that is, it is private money, but it should be understood right away that it is not just money, it is, for example, yachts, it is estates , that is, what will have to be somehow turned into liquid assets, that is , there may be problems with this. at the same time, we understand that this is a large amount , and yet, as i see the idea pursued by the european union, they want to keep this money for the time being, provide it to ukraine, and use it when a full-scale restoration of our economic capacity is needed, so be it, and for now

let's be patient, because what to wait for these the funds will take more than one day, and we will distribute them after we receive them, mr. ivan, we are infinitely grateful to you for this morning conversation, an important morning conversation, ivan us, chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, candidate of economic sciences, was with we are in direct contact. the russian invaders tried to leave ukrainians without electricity, water, and heat, so last fall they chose the energy infrastructure as their main target, ukraine felt the first mass shelling on october 10 2020. in the second year , it was possible to restart the energy system thanks to the support of western partners, but this year, russia can once again use winter as a weapon and renew its attacks on the energy sector. ukraine is preparing for this, how exactly and who helps in this, in our next story. the russians struck ukrainian energy facilities 255 times in

the first year of the full-scale invasion, and donetsk was the most affected. dnipropetrovsk and kyiv regions. last winter, ukrainians spent a total of five weeks without light and heat, that's 35 days complete darkness. the ukrainian authorities do not publish official data on the extent of the destruction, but the united nations and the world bank have calculated that the russian federation has caused 10 billion us dollars of damage to our energy sector with its strikes. thermal power plants and thermal power plants were not the most affected, their capacities were reduced by 68%. 42 out of 94 critical high-voltage transformers were damaged or destroyed. for its attacks on ukraine, russia mostly used air-to-air cruise missiles basing, especially khasto-1 and khasto-2 and in the defense forces of the south have already been warned. the aggressor country has not used these missiles for a long time, which means that it is trying to accumulate them