tv [untitled] October 29, 2023 6:00am-6:30am EET
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on the air of the tv channel, the program studio zahid. we will analyze the most important events of this week. our guests today are professor zf khanin from jerusalem and political scientist andrii pyonkovskyi from washington. now on the air. zf khanin, professor of political sciences at bar ilan university, will work for the tv channel. glory to ukraine, dear professor, welcome to the espresso studio. glory to the heroes mamysral hai. we stand on the threshold of the third world war. it no more jokes, this is not conspiracy theory, this is not a warm-up for the relevant topic. we understand that additional players may join the huge bloody crisis in the middle east. in particular, we are talking about the possible aggressive entry of the state of iran, which is trying to somewhat puppeteer such structures as hezbollah and hamas, well, maybe not somewhat puppeteer , direct control, so we understand that the united states has openly entered the game, so we understand that soon a ground attack may begin operation, this is a very interesting and difficult
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question, but probably we can find answer, if you please, i will continue in russian, we see that there are two hot spots that attract: today special attention, this is ukraine’s war with russia, eh, the demand will reflect russian aggression, with god’s help, yes, well, it is clear that the lord he personally does not interfere, he so to speak, it depends on how much people in the state hear these very messages , yes justice, one way or another, well, now there is a new hot spot, it is not new, it has been going on for 100 years, but now it has acquired , we went to the finish line directly, either we or they, this is israel's war with iranian proxies. and here you are absolutely right, saying that the most difficult question today is whether iran will personally intervene in this conflict. until today, tehran preferred not to declare its own participation, primarily because
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they are interested, well, in relatively, relative freedom of action, in order to obtain nuclear weapons. here, in a few weeks, in a few. a month before the beginning of this conflict, which we are now we are worried, we received information that in fact iran is taking weeks to obtain a sufficient number of weapons-grade plutonium , that is, in fact, it will equip several nuclear bombs, and nuclear ones, in addition to their missile program, which they are developing outside of the 5.1 agreement with tehran, that is, then here is the plan of action to prevent iran from obtaining a nuclear... well, you are talking about the so-called nuclear agreement, which at one time barack obama pushed through with all the corresponding consequences, which ended his crimean initiative, we too remember very well, and we also remember well his reboot, reset with
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arab-muslim countries, and pressure on israel, which owed its large-scale concessions to the palestinian arab... want to satisfy some arab regimes and iran to will not allow chaos in the middle east, today it all looks funny and sad, but actually back then it was possible to more or less imagine that this was happening, freaks appear from time to time, in israel there was one such member of the merit party in his time, who would rather remain silent, but he spoke out about the russian-ukrainian conflict in 2014-15, do you want me to tell you what he told you, what solution to the problem he proposed? two states for two peoples, yes, uh, that sounds funny, that is, a state for ukrainian russians and a state for ukrainian ukrainians, that’s roughly what he said, that the solution to the palestinian problem, two states for two peoples, well, that’s one thing they received gas in the sector, and
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what? it became middle eastern switzerland, it became middle eastern singapore, that's it there were opportunities for this, and the enterprises that the jews left and the greenhouses that half fed half of europe with ecologically clean vegetables, and the best beaches on the coast, a fully able-bodied population, which, if it were not ruled by bandits, could well, happily, dear professor, i would like to return to the iranian nuclear program and the possibility of engaging in certain forms of nuclear terrorism against the state of israel, we understand that this is a question of exceptional confrontation, it is not just like that, you know, the two sides have, however... to each other, no, this is an existential confrontation, and we understand that there will be forces in the arab world that will be ready to take terrible unconventional actions, that's right, that's all, for many years, we have been trying to tell everyone who is ready to listen that the arab-israeli and palestinian-israeli
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conflict, and the conflict between israel and iran , is not a conflict over territory, it is not a territorial conflict, it is an existential conflict, the question of who will survive, who will remain alive, and questions series, especially when subjects are connected who are motivated by an absolutely radical, messianic ideology, in response to the question: "be rational". this will also affect you, eh, a nuclear war will also mean your end, but you will die, eh, actually speaking, and everything, yes, leaves quite a bit of room for compromise, agree, one way or another, iran is not yet in the conflict interferes, openly, he traditionally all these years preferred to act through his proxies, through satellites, this is primarily the most strong, this is south lebanese hezbollah, and it should not be perceived as... just another terrorist movement, it is really a party that governs lebanon, lebanon
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is a country that is being held hostage by hezbollah, and the situation in which the president, who is not there, yes, the prime minister who is, the officials who are there in beirut, they are shouting and saying : "save us from them, you should not interfere, because this will be the end of lebanon, and this will be the end of lebanon, in in former times, israel was forced to be the second lebanese, the first libanskaya, i had to fight only with the military wing of the radical movement, it was believed that lebanon somehow does not control the situation, we are not at war with lebanon, but today we will have to fight with lebanon, i am uncomfortable saying this, but if they interfere, then such a country as lebanon will be of interest exclusively to archaeologists, they understand this, what is the matter, because it will be a question for the survival of the country, israel, i understand, as you understand, the same situation today: with hezbollah, but they are with hamas in the south , but they have already played, they
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apparently, they took a serious suicidal step, and although they managed to surprise the israelis, and although the losses were catastrophic , it reminded the israelis of the days of the holocaust, but it is clear that israel is ten times stronger than hamas, and the end of this organization is in the near future. they counted, and the iranians, apparently, counted on the fact that israel will react sluggishly, as always, get bogged down in these battles, a ground operation will begin very quickly, and there will be catacombs, mines, multi-level defense, high losses, and every life is priceless for israelis , they will start talking about how it is necessary to end this case, let's negotiate, as always, hizballah intervenes here, it turns out that the record has changed. so to speak, the old concept exploded in our hands, the idea of peaceful
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coexistence, crisis management, the so-called red lines, yes, restraint, it did not justify itself, that is, all these peaceful requests and proposals, so come in alive, you must understand , it is not, this is such a people, they are under oppression the occupation, explain the occupation to me, we left there to the last centimeter 18 years ago, we supply products, water , everything else, and electricity, take them for treatment, give them jobs, one way or another, that's it, today this paradigm has changed totally and, less than that, we are not talking about the liquidation of this fundamentalist radical islamist regime , so hizballah is holding back a little for now, the war is going on in the north, it is going, yes, but it is not a full-scale war, it must be said that our prime minister supports the minister of defense, because that his proposal was not to proceed with the reactive, that is, to destroy - fire points and infiltrators, terrorists from there, but to move to the proactive phase, that is
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, to strike at the main concentration of the combat wing of hamas, hizballah, excuse me, and at the centers of preparation and launch rockets, and they have tens of times more of them than hamas, look, mr. professor, and if we, we are talking about a much wider, i don't know, geopolitical landscape of this current situation, there may even be a feeling that hamas was used as a certain bait or as a certain trigger, yes, they provoked the situation, they killed a lot of innocent, civilian israelis and not only israelis, knowing that there would be a very clear specific reaction, and then maybe in general with a similar, well, really horrible, gruesome of the genocidal action was to provoke the rise of anti-israel sentiments in the near future. in the east, we understand that there are countries that trade in oil, that are transiters of very important projects,
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in particular, we are talking about an alternative to the chinese transit corridor, so they would wanted to stir up the middle east, for that, well, we understand, so after that completely different levels of relations begin on the same energy oil market and not only there, i think that such a hypothesis has the right to exist, there are several circumstances that support it, but this means... it should intervene immediately and iran should be a part of this project. israel showed patience, and now. the picture looks like this: israel, according to its current state, has some people like us we are talking about evrite, merkhavishma, that is, how to say, room for maneuver, for freedom of action, so it has, like, time, but not very much, but it has, yes, in order to deal with the problem in the south, iran,
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there is a question, this is to the hypothesis that you presented, it is quite logical, in my opinion, iran, now, apparently...' hizballo maintains, because something went wrong, it did not go exactly as they expected. israel did not succumb to the provocation of this bait, but is preparing such a full-scale destruction, such thorough, slav-slav, what is called, step by step, of the entire local infrastructure. further, the attempt to raise the arab peace against israel, it generally turned out to be unsuccessful. this is a meeting of arab leaders. with mr. guterres, to whom we have separate questions, as you understand, yes, we also have a lot of questions about him in ukraine, that's it, i don't think that i have to explain to the ukrainians what i mean, that's it therefore, and there we heard accusations against israel, immediate demands to end accusations of genocide in
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they didn't talk about genocide there, they talked about collective punishment, that it was necessary to distinguish those involved... those who were not counted, all that, but under the table they said, don't dare to do what we advise, just don't dare, they understand perfectly well, they should say that, that the people who are interested hear them, brought up by generations in anti-zionism and anti-semitism, yes, well, they themselves understand perfectly well that this is such a war as they are the containment of israel, the filling of this soil, this area, by iran and its allies, china on the one hand with ego interests, on the other hand the parties with its interests and the countries of this same group and the movement of the countries of the iranian bloc from the yemeni houthis to the assad regime in syria and hizballah in the north in lebanon and hamas on it plus plus iraq from all kinds , which is essentially a province of iran
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today, here it is that's all they understand sick, yes, they understand, these are the arab leaders, yes, that if damage is done to israel, israel will retreat, then, eh, the days of their regimes, arab regimes, moderate pro-western ones, they are counted, iran in turn, while supports hizballah, apparently realizes that the situation is not exactly as they planned, they are holding on to a black day, a black day for them, this is a situation when israel will finally come to an agreement with the united states and receive a green light for liquidation. oh, the key story about the united states and president joseph biden's willingness to take concrete, tough military steps. we understand that the specificity of israel is that there is no so-called strategic depth of defense, israel is really a small country, the size is a little smaller than the kyiv region, and we understand that they would
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planned to intimidate the state of israel, to intimidate jerusalem with the same iranian ... vyran ballistic program, extremely well, it is developed, and we understand that they would hint in this way that they could supply and so on to the militants, well, the scenario has already been played out , but the military response of the united states and the two aircraft carrier groups that in the mediterranean sea smoothly moved to the coast, biden, will he make an important decision if, for example, they apply unconventional scenarios of different plans about yes this is a deterrent factor for iran and this is a deterrent factor for israel, among other things, this means that if you do not let us solve the problems ourselves, then stand next to us, all these previous years the answer was evasive, and today the answer was yes, of course, look, here two anti-aircraft groups, here is our isminets shooting down missiles that the houthis fired on orders from iran, in your direction,
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whether they were directed at the us military bases in iraq. or to the south of israel, as they generally think in our country, yes, but nevertheless, a hypocrite, of the american fleet shot them down on the way during the approach, by the way, one more drone was shot down by the air force of saudi arabia, this is a question of the oo, yes, in general, in this way, there is some factor, guys, here you solve your problems, we are close with you, this is a local local conflict for now, let's leave it as it is for now, it can grow into a regional one, but no more, we don't need this third world war in its full extent, because right here under this bench, how you understand, china will begin to realize its interests in southeast asia, chinese ships have already arrived in the tryasit bay, again to the question of your hypothesis about oil, and in general , the united states believes that let's
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distribute the responsibilities for the time being, we will supply you with as many weapons as you need, first of all ammunition, don't worry about the ukrainians, they have their own quota, so to speak, it will not go anywhere, we now have a program of rearmament of the united states army, everything that is now in service will be received by our allies in eastern europe. so that you engage, so to speak, in the implementation of those tasks that are recognized in our common interests, well, according to some rumors, according to rumors, okay , the leave of the soldiers of the american army was canceled, because it is possible that they will have to relocate to the middle east, one way or another, it is clear what to fight for the americans will not be in israel, they have never fought for us for israel, we do not need it on the territory of israel, well, this is quite solid support and which can be taken into account, yes, so to speak, this is completely within the framework of allied relations, yes correct your strategic
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vision, i think, this is the maximum and the best thing that we all, all of us, yes , i mean you too, so to speak, could get in this situation, a certain threat of a similar plan, it creates certain opportunities , i think you remember, there was such a ukrainian soviet socialist magazine perets, so very often there, you know, the so-called jewish zionists together with the people of bandera, so under the umbrella of uncle sam, so -called, well, that is, this is such a distorted soviet thinking, but we understand that it is necessary to use and carry out some element synergies, and the united states tried to connect the situation near israel and the russian-ukrainian war for good reason. with your permission, i will first address the first part of your remark, which is not a question, but a statement of a certain fact , the relationship between jerusalem and kyiv in the first months after or in the first year after the beginning of the russian aggression against ukraine after february 24 last year, they
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were their factor, so to speak, their dynamics were determined by two factors, the first factor is that israel was away from that of the set of guarantees that ukraine received, signed the budapest protocol , the guarantees that were taken on by... the countries that acted at that time, let's say, subjects that ensured the security of ukraine, russia was among them, this is understandable , but it was also a certain indicator that the countries of the west, and above all the united states and nato, they had to provide ukraine in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, provide all the necessary materials in order to provide its national security, and something in this sense was being done, initially it was assumed that israel was not part of this picture, but israel at the same time proposed that israel had its own problems, to put it mildly, yes,
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including the appearance of russia as our own, as a border country, unlike iran , because the russian army is in syria, now there are fewer of them, but the military space forces, special forces, etc., etc., etc., etc., the division of spheres of influence between iran, russia, turkey, and the united states , there left a lot of room for israel to maneuver, except to find an understanding with moscow that we are not going to overthrow the assad regime , take care of him yourself, if you are interested in bandits, for god's sake, but - we are not ready to accept two things, the emergence of a new iranian front on the territory of syria against us, and the transformation of syria into a transport corridor for weapons that change the state of affairs on the battlefield, that is, the same hisboleh and other iranian proxies. at that moment, moscow agreed to this, as if there was some kind of understanding,
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yes, this situation began to change even before the russian invasion, it appeared again in the phraseology of russian officials , in society, in some specific actions, interpretations of these actions, for example, when the syrian air defenses shot down a russian plane, they suddenly accused israel of having covered themselves with a russian plane , of course, f16 covered up with this slow motion, well, you understand that when it comes to propaganda , logic is not, let's say, significant or desirable to guests, but nevertheless, the situation that is happening in general today , she motivated or stimulated israel to adhere to the old understandings, as soon as they understand this now, and the ukrainians, i am sure, also understand that the front is really unfolding here against the same enemy, with whom ukraine is de facto at war with russia, and now how we also understand de facto iran, and israel is at war with iran and its proxy, which de facto today supports russia, so that everything is clear, who is on which side, the second thing is that this
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is a hybrid modernist military conflict, which today we have necessarily presupposes direct clashes with your opponents, yes, today no, but tomorrow yes, i have a fear that russia would be interested in the maximum escalation, that's right, antina, but, you know, what we learned by living on the middle east, here we are again living, restoring our national hearth for the last 100 years, that's what will happen tomorrow, we will talk tomorrow, today is going on... survival, right? that's the same thing, one of the problems why it was possible to allow the creation of this terrible terrorist viper in gas sector, this is what we thought before the start of hostilities, but what will happen tomorrow, here we will capture them again, here we will destroy them again, mess, post-apocalypse, this is a russian word that is mess, yes, which is used in hebrew, disorder, yes, and gangs, as you know, as
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in hollywood films, gangs of surviving bandits roam around there... broken, it will not be their problem, it will be our problem, and now the situation we see has changed, what will happen to the gas sector tomorrow, they say here are our european allies let's survive until tomorrow, while we need to survive, we will destroy the bandits, and tomorrow we will figure it out, it would be good for you guys, in addition to useful advice, to also join the solution to the problem, the second point, which is connected with israeli-ukrainian relations, this is a factor, this is a real factor and what will be the next day? in the previous years, at the time, ukraine was considering in kiev the idea of entering into relations with israel that turkey once had in the pre-erdogan times, now azerbaijan, that is, israel, as a rule very rarely supplies ready-made weapons, we are a small country, we have a small industry, we export
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brains so to speak, so to speak in israel, they are produced in the usa, the magic wand is this whole multi-level air defense system that israel has, from the destruction of intercontinental ballistic missiles to a windbreaker that knocks down bullets and anti-tank missiles projectiles, yes installed on the tank, now there is also an iron beam, which is like an iron dome, only many times cheaper, one volley of an iron dome is about... 20 to 50,000 dollars, here is a volley of this laser system, which does the same , even more effective, it’s about 80 cents, yes, it’s a completely different story, it’s also mainly produced in the usa, that’s why the americans immediately say, don’t worry , we’ll supply the ammunition, yes, yes, it’s our ammunition, our developed, they are simply produced in america, and the partnership model is our allies, so to speak, and for this you need to be an ally of israel in the full sense of the word, to vote in the un as, well let's say
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as we would like, yes, uh, here, to understand us more, as, accordingly, and expect more from us understanding, yes? unfortunately, mr. professor, i have to end our conversation , i want to remind our tv viewers that professor zf hanin, professor of political sciences at bar ilan university, worked for them from jerusalem. in 2023, espresso celebrates its tenth anniversary. we are proud to present your. new ethereal look. stay tuned for an updated espresso, because despite everything, we stay in touch. the information hour on the espresso tv channel continues. our viewers, to whom we are infinitely grateful for their trust, are in touch with you. greetings, dear viewers, this is the big ether program on the espresso channel. espresso is 10 years old, we are developing and improving. well, we go further and talk about magnetic storms. we are becoming even more dynamic, even more convenient.
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tv channel information day. we are in full swing - this is a modern design and sound, even more interesting programs and original projects. the occupying garrison was surrounded, cut off from the main forces and destroyed. they will try, dawn. our values and ukrainian point of view remain unchanged. the war in ukraine is the main topic for ukrainians. and losses, analysis and forecasts , politics and geopolitics, serhii rudenko and the guests of his program will talk about all this, people who have information and shape public opinion, people who defend ukraine and create the future right now, the main and interesting thing in the program verdict serhiy .
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