[000:00:30;00] for the belarusians themselves, but also for our region, we hope, thank you very much, please excuse me, mr. dariusz materniak, a polish expert on international issues, the head of the poland -ukraine center was with us, you see, behind me were polish and ukrainian flags, and now only ukrainian flags, so now we will not talk about ukraine, don't think, we will

talk about what is happening in serbia, first of all, what is happening in the balkans in general, maria gelatiy, balkan expert, candidate of political sciences , with we will appear on the screens now, good health, ms. maria, thank you for finding time for us, and we will talk about it with you now, and this is what it is in serbia, the president would dissolve the parliament, what does he care do not like the parliament, what kind of game is this, is this a game, is this just so normal, the flow of serbian life, political, good evening, well, actually, i think that everything is a bit balkan, emotionality, and on the other hand, and as we see , serbia in general has been rocked by such

protests for the last year, even the last two years, and recently in serbia murders, enough of these, enough... well-known and people came out with protests on the street, and i think that this is an attempt to defuse the situation in the country a little bit, to reduce this tension a little bit, and even vuchich himself, when he dissolved the parliament, he also said, that it is very important for serbia to maintain stability and peace in this difficult time, and for fair democratic elections to be held so that citizens can honestly elect the government. that is, here it seems to me that this is simply a relief of tension in society, on the other hand, in my opinion, uchich has such an interest in forming more, a convenient parliament, because as many experts say, there will be no time in the opposition to conduct a quality campaign, and accordingly, they do not expect serious changes in the parliament, that is, that it will be most likely, or the forces that are about to

, or it will be, even forces that will be close to the teacher himself, that is, there will be a convenient parliament that will be easier to manage and make the necessary decisions, just for buchich, let's say so. mrs. maria, look, but the public mood in serbia, they are stable, it is, well, they are always a little pro-russian, there are a little eurosceptic, a little nationalist, a little anti-kosovar, well, to what extent, because we understand that we will not delve into serbian events there anyway, but if there is such an attitude, then the next parliament and the next president will be approximately as they are today, absolutely, well, actually, you said very well that they are a little pro -russian, a little anti-

european, but they are also pro-european, so... there are forces there that would like to bring serbia into the eu, too, they are very nationalistic and that's why they are at the same time against kosovo, because for those nationalist forces, kosovo is a part of serbia's yugoslavia, it is their territory and they do not want to give it up. at the same time, if you look at the picture as a whole, there are already many, many political forces and even, it seems to me, vuchich himself, they are measuring themselves against the fact that kosa. regardless of the fact that it will not yet return under the wing of serbia, but they can exchange it for becoming members of the eu. accordingly, there are already people who are emotionally ready to give up kosovo, even though they are don't say it out loud, but let's say there are forces that are ready to lead serbia into the eu without kosovo, and there are forces that are still against it and are doing everything possible to destabilize the situation in kosovo and the relationship between

serbia and kosovo, and? ms. maria, a speculative question, i don't expect an honest answer, it can also be speculative, because according to the question, if you could imagine a referendum, kosovo. or europe, then how would the serbs vote in this referendum and who would win kosovo even then without europe, or europe, but then leave kosovo alone? it is difficult for me to say the exact figure, but i think that somewhere it would be more than 50% for the accession, for the accession of the eu. they have somewhere, i think, somewhere around 50, of those forces that are in favor of joining the european union, i think those who are in favor of joining the european union are ready to give up kosovo, that is, ready to choose the european path in exchange for the fact that kosovo will not remain

a part of serbia, now to montenegro, how is the situation there, it is such a small country, but there it is so turbulent, this country, we know that the parliament was headed by a person who... is pro-russian, and the government is pro -european people, well, me and actually, as always, they also have a former leader, i don't know if he stayed there or not, who is there since 1990, he was constantly changing like this, then i'm a serb, no, i'm a negro, i'm a european, no, i'm a russian, no, i'm in nato, no, i'm without nato, and so it went on for decades, and now there 's going on and i mean it. the mood of society, the society there, there, there montenegrins live there, do serbs live there, because for many years there, in montenegro, everyone

every second or every half, every third, said: "no, no, no, i'm not a montenegrin, i'm a serb. well , in fact, in montenegro, a large part of serbs, montenegrins there are about 30%, and this means, of course, that those who are serbs, they are representatives of the serbian orthodox church, which influences them as well, but they also emotionally want to be with serbia, that is, society is somewhat divided, that is , a large part of the serbian population that votes, of course, that determines and politics, and those who will be elected to parliament, and also who potentially can head the parliament, i.e. become the speaker, and well, that's just one situation, on the other hand, we understand that... it affects all territories where there are serbs and where there is an orthodox church, that is, these are ties through the church, plus

because of the serbs, because of their historically close relations many centuries ago, so when we look at all this, it is natural that for montenegro, on the one hand , there are forces that want to be separate, want to be with the eu and want to move in some, let's say , european direction, and on the other hand, there are those forces that would like, perhaps even return... montenegro to serbia, that is, unite. well, this has a certain basis, because when the balkans were united, they were united from an economic point of view, that is, it was more profitable to be as one country, yugoslavia, which was there, some were richer, some were poorer, but then redistribution of resources took place, and in principle everyone lived well, and now, let's say, those republics that seceded, but which did not have such an economic basis, montenegro is one of those that was not very rich and in principle the main resource is resorts, it is tourism, it actually also depends on many factors, that is, whether das will give money or not, on the other hand comes business, there are a lot of russian businesses that have invested in the tourism industry, they are also present there,

accordingly they also influence on this whole situation, and therefore, it is actually these elections, they show from my side that the situation in montenegro itself is so polarized, that is, there are both these and those, and about european and pro-russian forces, on the other hand , it also shows that these countries, they cannot be stable, because one power will always prevail on one side , another power will prevail on the other, and here the question in general is whether one day montenegro will not decide to move towards the unification of serbia or the formation of some special union that will help them function there economically, and for example, the census was recently postponed , precisely because it suspects that the serbian population in general is more in montenegro now than it was before the previous census was carried out population, and they do not want to show it, although they are positioned by the fact that it is necessary to conduct an honest

calculation of the results so that there is no falsification, yes, you have listed many factors, and they are all fair, but there is one more factor that i want to emphasize , but montenegro is a member of... how does it fit together, serbia, which always says: nato bombed belgrade, let's not forget, but serbs live here. in montenegro and montenegro is a member of na, which bombed us, who are 70% black serbs, something there, some kind of bipolar, some kind of bipolar, no, well, i think it's a little by the way, they actually bombed belgrade, not the black, the black, but the serbs, if i were a serb, i would say that i would live in pričština, i said that we were bombed, as an introduction, and i have not seen

large protests even today against the fact that so - black is a member of nato, i don't see that, yes, there are problems there, but to say that tomorrow half of montenegro will come out and say, get out of nato, i don't see that either, no, that's not the case will be , because of course, serbs are a large part, 70% of them, there are fewer of them, less than montenegrins, but they still, well, influence politics, and in addition to montenegrins and serbs, there are others there, there are albanians, there are other minorities, that is, in fact , the serbs are not the dominant minority there, on the other hand, those who live in montenegro, they have not been bombed, so of course they will not oppose nato, even the serbs themselves who live in serbia, i think they realize that this is a bombardment. serbia, it

was the reason for what milosevic did to kosovo. that is, it did not happen just like that, but, that is, nato did not come and bomb serbia, simply violating the state's right there. no, milosevic committed a genocide that could not be stopped by any other means than force. that is, we must understand that these actions, such as the use of military force against serbia, actually helped stop the bloodshed. in kosovo, and this was the first such countdown, from which negotiations began, peaceful, real, which began to lead to the settlement of the situation in kosovo, so i think that this issue, on the one hand, well, of course, the serbs are offended by all this, but it seems to me that with time comes the understanding that, well , this was somehow a punishment for those who are in favor the actions taken by the serbian authorities, and well, maybe someone even understands that it was justified, the last question about montenegro and my last question to you, ms.

maria, does the influence of the russians in montenegro remain the same, or is something changing, in the last there, i don’t know, well, after after russia’s attack on ukraine, for example, there are fewer russians there, less influence, less business, is everything the same as it was, no, i think that everything is the same as it was, because that in principle, montenegro has never oppressed the russians and now they are in principle and they continue... to have their business in montenegro, that is, if there is a country in europe where it becomes inconvenient for russians, for russians, then it is not montenegro, it seems to me that in general, it is not about the balkans, in the balkans, they continue , many people have a positive attitude towards the russians, and there are countries, for example, croatia or slovenia, when it seems to us that this is a country that is more pro-western and less pro-russian, but there are groups inside that will be pro-russian, and and these groups, of course, will... help the russians lead

business, sometimes even bypassing certain sanctions in order to conduct business and e, or to get rich or to import certain goods, and even well, the history in ukraine was when the import was offered to import motor-cutting goods, and there were options for croatia and or montenegro, that is, and the other, black is a kind of country that is very flexible , i would say, that is, they for their own interest... they will work with those beneficially, unless it can threaten their, well, relations, for example, the west, that is, if you put them in a certain framework and said that you can't do that, that's one situation, but if no one does it to them, no one puts in such a framework, then i think they will do business with those who will bring them profit, and that thank you very much, thank you very much

, maria galatiy, expert... candidate of political sciences, i also know about the black man, it is attention for girls, there are the highest guys in europe, the dutch guys are in second place, but the montenegrins are in the first place, just so you know, but we are not about that , we will have this for another program, someday there will be such a program about what it looks like, not yet, now we will know what andres umland looks like, an analyst at the stockholm center for... eastern europe, a german political scientist, a great friend of ukraine, who spent many years in ukraine, where he teaches a lot, or rather he taught for many years in ukraine, and therefore we will now ask... him about the following. good health mr. anand. thank you for finding time for us. thanks a lot. good evening, great honor. here you are, a german, you understand german politics, you work for sweden, for swedish higher education institutions. i have such and such

a question for you, it is a problem, it is discussed in europe, when the first two, three, four, five days. after october 7, when hamas attacked israel, there was a big, big wave in the press, and now it's been 25 days, people see how the jews are being bombed with gas, and here's the ratio, 5 days and 25 days, and psychologically, people in europe it occurs that these are luini jews and hamas horo, well hamas... bad, but not that bad, and i sit and think, this is a normal person he sits, watches the television shows him, but here are the protests in london, and here are the protests in paris, and here are the strikes, and here, and here they are bombing, they have already forgotten who attacked whom, it is

being discussed in some intellectual circles, what to do about it , first of all, it must be said that israel continues to be bombed, it’s just that the effect there would not be the same as the israeli attack on, on gas, well, yes, this is a big topic in germany that is discussed every day, and well, it’s even more difficult, because first, we have a special relationship with israel for historical reasons, for one thing on the one hand, and on the other hand, we have a lot of immigrants from muslim countries, and there are , well, some, i would even say, most of these, muslim immigrants, they sympathize with hamas, and well, well,

at least there palestinians, and that is why there are demonstrations, there are conflicts and there is a big one, each. every day there is a big discussion about all this, because it really concerns not only foreign policy, but also internal stability, and now they are talking about the fact that it is necessary to change the laws for migrants, so that those migrants who are anti-semitic, rather send them home, because it is for germany. it is not impossible that there were some anti-semitic demonstrations there. andres, look, i have an impression, maybe i'm wrong, maybe the germans will criticize me, i have an impression that the sympathizers of the palestinians, and moreover, the sympathizers that

i know for sure are hamas, no matter how hard you convince them, what propaganda not to give any testimony, not to show any documents , no matter what footage is shown, they will be sympathizers of the palestinian state under all conditions, that is, whether it is discussed, whether there is of the modern civilized world, some influence, some tool that can be used to simply say, well, listen, well, this is black, and this is white, because i have the impression... that no, no , no, civilization has not invented such tools, no matter how many don't say, show from morning to night what hamas was doing on the territory of israel, we forgot about it, yes, it is, there is a big problem here, and there is no solution to it, and

now if there is such a thing, such a conflict of two principles that are very well, important, fundamental for germany, it is from one on the other hand, this is, well, a good attitude towards migrants if they are refugees, and, well, this is a lesson of the second world war, yes, that refugees must be protected and accepted, and well, this, for example, now concerns many ukrainians, this is one lesson from the second world war, and the other lesson is that we, the jews, support, must support, the jewish state, because we beat so many jews then, and on the background of the holocaust, israel was created and these these are very fundamental

principles of germany and now they are in conflict and this is a daily topic for germany discussions now to sweden, i was surprised about a month ago, maybe a month and a half, i started to notice in the measure. in the information in the information, in the news of various things that in sweden, sweden is concerned about the increase in crime, some areas have appeared there, where even the police are afraid to go, that is , the behavior of the swedes is absolutely not swedish, what does this mean that this is happening there, it is quite interesting , because sweden always looked like such an ideal and always invited migrants, always incorporated them, everything is fine, everything is an idea,

in short, an ideal country, cold, but perfect, but now it's cold and not perfect there, what's happening in sweden, well, first of all, i have to say that i'm not swedish and i work in stockholm, but i know swedish politics worse, but really this is the situation, which is a lot.. of migrants in sweden, probably a percentage, there are more than in other, western countries , because sweden is a small country, there are 10 million, only people, and they took a lot of migrants from arab countries, and there are certain family clans, engaged in some kind of struggle among themselves, and there in stockholm, everyone day... there are some conflicts there, it is mainly migrants, it is migrant

communities, and there are family cyclones, so this is a big problem for sweden, but there is such a strange situation, well, i often visit stockholm and i usually in such districts where there are not these, well, many migrants, and i live as if when i... there and where there is my institute, it is a good district, and it is not felt there, but there are other districts where really, there , it is dangerous there, and this, this is no longer the sweden that many people have, if in their heads, these ideas, they are already now no, they do not work for sweden, yes, andres, and then there is a very, you know, speculative, but not speculative question , in a year or two, maybe in six months, the europeans

will say, maybe hungary is right, maybe this premium it's beautiful, maybe poland is right, maybe their government is good at not letting migrants in and they don't have such problems, but sweden would do the same. and they have such problems, and this is a european problem, this is a problem of brussels , whether we or they do not succeed, because , well, marxism, yes, labor and capital, as we were taught in school, yes, and now it is absolutely, they do not want to work, a lot of them want to live on social welfare, everyone

works, pays taxes, and a large number of people do not want to work, collect these taxes, put in their pockets and everything is fine , do not learn the local language, do not respect christians, yes, muslims say, yes, if, well, we are muslims and that's all, we, we are we believe, in short, a huge number of problems, there are some opinions in europe about these problems and about how to solve them somehow? well, on the other hand, there are also many migrants who integrate well and they work there, they even create their own enterprises, that is, these problems are still a small percentage of migrants, the majority of migrants, they try to integrate, they study, they open their business there, and there is another problem

, that we need migrants in any case, because we have it... a demographic problem, well , it is probably not as severe as in ukraine now, on the background, wars, but we have those too problems with, with demography, and we need migrants in any case, and uh, and on the other hand, there are also simply refugees, from countries where there is war, and well, there according to the constitution, both sweden and germany, and many others countries, they have the right to be in the country, as refugees, they have this right to asylum, and therefore, well , there, i think, i see the only way out, well, to improve integration, because it, well, it is migration, it will in any case,

to continue, i think, and hungary, and and and well, poland - now if i decided, because for for myself because of ukrainian migrants, yes, they also have a demographic demographic problem, but this migration, it will continue and on, if you look at history, it has always been, that is, it is such a myth that there was some there before a world where there were no migrants and that there was everything, because. unequivocally, the last question, the last question, it is difficult, and definitely no one knows the answer, if we knew with you, we would become nobel laureates, immediately, i would come to you in sweden, in stokol, we received the nobel prize

award, now in ukraine there are rumors and gossip that ukraine is putting pressure on ukraine to negotiate peace with russia, etc. on the other hand, smart people say, well, if you want a new war, then let's organize peace with russia, and in 5 years we will get an even bigger war, and it is not known whether it will be only in ukraine, or also in the baltics, because russia will begin to prepare better, arm themselves better, and so on, and so on and the like. how much are these discussions... hear in europe and what european society thinks, if it comes up with something, or the european mass media, or peace and wait for a new war, or still fight, help ukraine to defeat russia and not wait for a new war ? well, unfortunately, this discussion, it has always been

, from the very beginning, there since the 14th year and and and and at first this this discussion and this whole idea, it was popular and it and the result of this discussion from 14 to 22- th year, ukraine did not receive many of the weapons it needed was, then it changed and now it is a different discussion, now people already understand that it is necessary to support... ukraine, but on the other hand, there are still many people, they are simply afraid that it will turn into the third world war, that it will involve well, let's say germany in this war, and that's why this whole discussion, unfortunately, it continues, and of course russian propaganda, it, it plays with it, and well, putin himself, he lived there for several years in germany, he

understands german very well psychology, and therefore all these scare the germans and others, what will happen if you you will support ukraine, we will start a nuclear war with you, thank you very much, thank you very much , anand umland, an analyst at the stockholm center for eastern european studies, a german political scientist, i say goodbye to you and goodbye. how is the investigation into the death of the soldiers of the 128th mountain storm brigade operational