which ukraine is speaking now, well, let me remind you that at 9 o'clock, exactly at 9 o'clock, the whole of ukraine remembers all those of our compatriots whose lives were cut short by russian aggression, remembers and observes a moment of silence. let's honor with a moment of silence the memory of the ukrainian military and peaceful citizens of ukraine who died in the war that broke out...' zazala russia.

my greetings, this is freedom of the mornings, my name is kateryna nekrecha, and in this stream we talk about the following topics: chinese leader xi jinping has come to the united states and today he has to meet face-to-face with his american colleague joe biden, or in countries to improve relations after a period of tension, what the leaders of the states will talk about and how china can help the us support ukraine in the war against russia. the war may drag on for another five years, because neither ukraine nor russia is ready to make concessions , the economist writes about this, referring to the opinions of western officials, and the head of the gur of ukraine budanov said that the war may continue for a long time with chaotic shelling ukrainian cities, but says: there is hope that the 25th year will be a turning point. is it possible to make predictions today?

what do diplomats and military experts say about the end of the war? students of the lviv polytechnic protested demanding the release of iryna farion. the institution's administration says there are no legal grounds for this. the protests began against the background of information about the detention of a student in crimea, correspondence with whom farion allegedly made public. it is called the work of the russian special services, which officially managed to find out about this case, whether a ukrainian was really detained in crimea, who is here... troll farion , we talk with a guest about what is happening in ukraine, what is the situation at the front, every day from 9:00 a.m. on svoboda ranok, here on youtube, on the radio liberty channel. the war in ukraine may drag on for another five years, at least such assumptions are increasingly put forward by western officials - the economist writes. officials in the west, the publication emphasizes, claim that neither russia nor ukraine is ready to give in, but at the moment, quote: they are unable to break the deadlock . the large-scale war in ukraine is

the largest in europe since 1945 and currently shows no signs of ending, the publication notes. the material also mentions that the military potential of the west will be under great pressure in the near future. the fighting in ukraine has become a reminder not only of how much ammunition is wasted in major military conflicts, but also of how limited western arsenals are and the ability to replenish them. that the war may continue for a long time, and the head of the main intelligence department, kyrylo budanov. in his opinion, the forces of the russian federation simply will not sign any agreement with kyiv and the coalition of allies, and in the future, chaotic shelling of ukraine will be carried out, but without powerful combat operations. budanov said this in a comment to the new voice publication. at the same time, budanov says that there is hope that 2025 will be a turning point for internal systemic changes and processes in russia, as well as in society and the economy. but this is not a forecast,

but an expectation - stressed the head of gur. meanwhile, the head of the office of the ukrainian president , andriy yermak, is convinced that a turning point is approaching in the war and that 2024 will be decisive in his opinion. this is yermak said during an event at the hutson institute in washington, where he is currently on a working visit. he made this statement in the context of the need for pppo systems in ukraine and working together with partners on this issue. allies of the country, in particular from europe and nato, should help ukraine more, because the situation on the battlefield is difficult. such a statement was made in brussels by the secretary general of the north atlantic alliance , jens stoldenberg, before participating in the meeting of the council of ministers of the eu and foreign relations. according to him, the desire of russian president putin is not yet visible to negotiate a solution acceptable to ukraine, so the only way to achieve this is to convince the russian leader that he will not win on the battlefield. for this, it is necessary to strengthen the army. capacity of ukraine.

the secretary general of nato also answered the question of whether ukraine should look for ways to negotiate with russia, in his opinion, it is up to ukraine to decide what the acceptable conditions are. for negotiations ivan krychevskyi, defense express expert, joins our broadcast. ivan, welcome to our broadcast. good morning. how are you military expert. in your opinion, is it even possible to make predictions about the duration and pace of the russian-ukrainian war. well, it is premature, but on the other hand, this does not mean that, let's say, it does not cancel the fact that individual representatives of the military and political leadership can state certain assessments, with the aim of or influencing. our processes, or our external processes, well, because for the sake of justice, if you know, let's say so, not to give estimates that the war will be long, exhausting in terms of potential and resources, then obviously we need internal solutions,

there on the military -industrial complex, there, well, let's say this, on the mobilization of resources for waging war, they will clearly not be accepted, therefore, here, in any case, it is necessary to dilute the concept and simply give a forecast, which may sound there from certain high-ranking officials. and the purpose of voicing this forecast, how likely is it, ivan, in your opinion, here is what budanov says, that the end of the war may not be set for a very long time, that russia will not go to negotiations, and we know the issue of the classical end of the war, as it was in the second world war, when the victorious countries entered the capital of the enemy, this option is also not considered, and in no sense, so the end may not be put here for a long time and ukraine may be under russian fire for a long time? there can be a problem even if, let’s say, russia will sign a conditional peace agreement and we will all be under fire, from the rubric we are not there, and the shaheds just fly in, especially if we say so, maybe when we assume that russia is not will sign for us and not for them

will begin to impose any peace agreement , perhaps we are too optimistic, because of course we can reflect on the experience of the second world war, and then not completely, we do not always do it correctly, because from a formal point of view. when russia could not conclude there, let's say, the factor that between russia and japan, a peace treaty has not yet been concluded, well , in general, russia resists the fact that japan signed the capitulation at bortulsur, and that is if, well, that is , let's say, at least some fundamental document that recorded the end of hostilities there was signed between the soviet union and japan, and actually there, if we were to be completely precise there, let's say in memories. well, the signing of the peace agreement between japan and the soviet union did not take place at the time, well, because, let's say, the united states of america, well, did not want to allow japan's pro-soviet leanings, there were such specific processes in post-war japan,

which you can tell a long and boring story, but roughly speaking, this all just shows that we are putting pressure on our globe, forgive us this example does not fit very well, if the speech, let's say so, to get at the russians are really reflecting now, they are reflecting in general on those wars, on that of the middle ages, of such a modernism, which, which russia led, well, that is, there the times of peter the first , or the so-called seven-year war in europe and the like, and especially, and even if we talk about the experience of the second world war, the russians, if they reflect for themselves the conclusion of various peace agreements as acts of violence, an act of coercion of the enemy, which in terms of strength should be equal to in general, waging war, therefore wars, therefore... let's put it this way, we should not expect from the fact that the russians will not, er, that in principle they may not go there to sign any conditions and not just hang us in a state of neither peace nor war, because if even by the way to mention

this historical meme, well, first the bolsheviks signed the so-called prestlytov peace treaty in 17, and then trotsky, in the plan of his policy regarding ukraine , proclaimed this meme, so it may be as if by the way such an option according to trotsky, that some kind of conditional peace agreement will be signed, and skirmishes about the border as well, that is why we are building, shall we say, too optimistic, expectations that the russians will hold back somewhere in terms of what to use against violence, well , probably not worth it, but deoccupation, complete deoccupation of ukrainian territories and then these clashes only on borders and such chaotic, as bodanov said, shelling of ukraine, is this a somewhat positive scenario? let's live up to it, if we talk in the context of a long war, about which there is a lot of talk, including from budanov, we heard it, how can we calculate the power necessary for ukraine, internal and from partners , in order to deter the enemy and to de-occupy the territories, how much is needed and

what exactly is needed, so that it is enough for ukraine to resist? i'm afraid that there aren't enough resources for us to stand still, in fact, why is it sometimes too often among western politicians. there are conversations about the peace talks, because, you know, if you talk about the order of resources like that, well, let's say this, the example was given more than once. returned to him once more, well, on her in the 91st year, there was an army of 7,000 units in the territory of ukraine, in which there were several thousand tanks of various types, starting from the t-55 and ending with the t-80, new modifications, several thousand armored vehicles and several thousand artists, and this , with such a huge number of technical armored vehicles, artillery, we had divisions that had to fight, let's call it, with a cadre and their structural organization had to... resemble, rather resembled what we still call cannon fodder in russians,

about the level of our mechanization with an amendment to the data indicated by balance 2023, plus we add open data from open sources regarding the supply of western defense equipment , it is generally inconvenient to speak, of course we can write to you in advance, so when did they make 4,000 pieces of f16, which they do not give us, or abrams 700 pieces were made, which they do not give us, we can count the idiots there, which are not at all... and it is not known whether they are actually in storage warehouses, but the structure of reality is approximately such that if the entire us army comes, undresses, everything, give all the abrams, all the bradleys, all the all artillery, all, jet systems to ukraine, well, this may be, even this is not enough , in fact, in principle to accumulate resources , in fact, why does such a story about premiums sometimes arise, well, purely by logic, in order to accumulate resources for defeating the enemy, which purposefully prepared everything... 20 years, well, it takes a lot of time, but the minister of foreign affairs dmytro kuleba

said that the european union will not be able to fulfill its plan to supply a million artillery shells to ukraine by march 24th due to the state of defense production and also because of bureaucratic obstacles, you said that even everything that is there in the usa is not enough for all this, if we say, well, not everything is needed at once, if we talk about a certain such term, then for now, what ukraine is supplied by western allies, what ukraine itself has started to produce, this will be enough, and if we forecast, let's say the nearest future year, maybe six months there, you know, there is one problem, due to legal restrictions we cannot operate freely available quantity equipment and means of disposal of the defense forces, and this greatly narrows our discourse, but you understand, if you make a correction for the fact that the russians still have 3,000 tanks, up to 1,000 armored vehicles,

we have many times less, the americans now have somewhere around there are approximately 2,500 abrams in total, but you understand, for us to have an advantage over the russians on the field, the us army needs to be disarmed at once, that is, literally , within a month or two, take away all their armored vehicles and roughly half a year dash 9 months to spend on the proper pace of preparation of our brigades according to nato standards for assault operations, well, because, let's say, the same western experts who at first, as it seemed to us, were simply criticizing the pace of the counteroffensive, then it turned out that they were just that, justified, let's say, tried to point out to us some shortcomings of our military organization, well, roughly, consider taking away all the armored vehicles in the us army at once and preparing for about a year, according to what we have, well, you know, in principle, taking into account that deficiency. and means, relative to ours

the enemy, the soldiers of the armed forces of ukraine come out in principle every day and create a military miracle that has not yet been seen, because with such a not high, not high amount of armored vehicles, let's say, as we have, and in principle other weapons, it is not known to us how manages to hold back the front, let's call it that, and not that there, oh, they gave us so much, they gave us, hold on for another year, please, no, but we can recall the assessment of the same budanov, who somewhere, it seems, somewhere a month ago what are there, let's say, bookmarks, blanks, yourself purchased, somewhere else they promised, it will be enough until the summer of 2024, that’s all, we still don’t have much time either, because besides that, we can troll the russians as much as we want there, especially in the context of a joke, that they are there with a cannon they are throwing things around, they have such a calculation, according to their policies and , unfortunately, their numbers on our losses are correlated with what some western media call. and let's say so, these numbers were not denied, well, what will they be able to us, with the current consumption of their demographic resource, our

demographic resource, well, crush it in five years. if we talk about russian capabilities, then in summary, they are not wasting time there, because according to the reports of western changes, it looks like, despite western sanctions, russia is increasing the production of both missiles and artillery shells, here they are better prepared, you understand , as i will tell you, it is possible that the western... zmi and western analysts are in a certain captivity of illusions, they believe that all exclusive technologies should be only with them, and outside of them it is like a wild field, a broken field, and the most important thing is that the russians cannot integrate existing technologies, because if we take the applied problem of how the russians circumvent why it turns out that, for example, the russians are still spinning non-lethal missiles in large quantities, bypassing the sanctions, and there it turns out that they western analysts themselves recorded this whole story, but for some reason they forgot about it, that the russians use these on-board computers

of the dawn and flame types for their missiles, developed back in the 1990s on the element base of the 70s, roughly speaking, whatever. ..' some old there chip found on to a chinese garbage man, it is much better than a belarusian chip made in the 70s , and it turns out that there, in the literal sense, as the supply of new electronics is not cut off, the computers there are so not clever that even old electronics there, i don’t know where to find them, will do, and this is how the russians get around it all , not to mention the fact that if we talk about the production of shells, gunpowder and the like, well, their chemical industry is too powerful, russia in principle. was probably the only country in the world that produced a lot of fertilizers and exported them, on it's a pity, the whole munitions industry, as it were, grows out of the defense industry, so - let's put it this way, there is no direct correlation, that here we are now sitting and thinking, why are western sanctions not working, western sanctions, unfortunately, they are only on the periphery of the russian economy

are working, they are not working on the core, the core is, relatively speaking, bombarding them with collimating bombardment, but there is no such resource now. i thank vana for joining and talking with you about the terms of the end of the war, how they can be calculated, what is needed weigh and weigh quite seriously. today, ivan kyrychevskyi, defense express expert, was a guest of svoboda ranok. a million shells by march next year. the european union undertook to supply ukraine with this volume, but now there is a risk that it will not be in time. this was also confirmed by the top diplomat of the association, who took his own way out of the situation the day before. at the next meeting, they were looking for a minister of defense of the eu countries. ukrainian defense minister rustom umyerov was present via video link. he appealed to his western colleagues to speed up the delivery weapons is there a chance to transfer the promised million to ukraine and what countries are the bloc members ready to help now, details of rfe/rl correspondent zarina stepanenko. military aid, at least 8 billion euros.

ukraine is preparing to allocate so much to its budget for next year's defense needs. thereby doubling the initial figure, which was sufficient primarily to finance already given promises. for the new project, the funds were minimal, so the plans were revised in favor of ukraine, at least this is what the government is currently proposing word for the german parliament. defense minister boris pistorius called the initiative a strong signal of germany's continued support for ukraine, and hopes for more help from other partners. as for the idea of ​​the european union as a union before ukraine by march 2024, a million shells, commenting on it, the german government official became the day before the first high-ranking official of an eu country to publicly call it unattainable. we can safely assume that the goal of a million shells will not be achieved. there were voices that called for caution, because it is easy to determine a million, and

there is money, but there must be production, unfortunately, these voices are right. we have made a significant contribution thanks to our framework agreement and will continue to do so, we are in dialogue with industry, production must be increased and accelerated, a million ammunition for ukraine is a european plan with several stages, the first - shells from our own warehouses is completed, ukraine received from the army of eu countries over 3,000 units, the head of european diplomacy reported. the next steps are joint purchases and production expansion, which the european defense industry is capable of the strengths and weaknesses of the minister of defense of the eu countries were evaluated the day before. now the block produces less than a million shells and missiles a year, the figure of a million is real, starting from the spring - the relevant european commissioner told the government officials. according to his assessment, the capacities allow, this year they were increased by almost a third. then it is up to the member countries to order weapons from manufacturers. at the same time, ukraine should be made a priority destination

for its delivery - noted the eu top diplomat. and for this to offer industry. market attractive contracts. european the industry exports a lot to third countries. yes, we ask the member states to change the route and their priority to give it to ukraine. millions of munitions remains a policy goal that we have identified together. ambitious, but still a goal, and we continue to reach it, doing everything we can to deliver faster and more ammunition. whether the eu will have time with a million shells for ukraine by march , neither the chief diplomat nor many ministers, unequivocally, like their colleagues from germany, did not answer, what they agreed on was that that supplies to ukraine, which become in the hands of its fighters a tool for fighting against russian aggression. must remain uninterrupted, ways to ensure this will be sought, from brussels, zoryan stepanenko, marek hajduk, radio liberty. meanwhile,

the us house of representatives adopted a new temporary budget, which should prevent the so-called shutdown, the suspension of the work of all state bodies and institutions of the country. the new interim budget was approved without spending for ukraine and israel. however, republican congressional leader chuck schumer, on cnn, stated that help. ukraine, israel, and taiwan will consider it after thanksgiving, that is, after november 23. the white house says that they have given ukraine 95% of the aid provided for it, and the current document still needs to be approved by the senate, and then signed by president biden. this must be done by midnight on friday , november 17, when the deadline for the previous interim budget in the us coincides. and i will meet joe biden and xizenpin today. in the united states will hold a meeting in an unknown city in the san francisco bay area on the sidelines of the summit asia-pacific economic cooperation. biden has already arrived at this

summit and said that he will try to establish normal communication with china, including contacts between the military. xizenpin's plane has also already landed in the state of california , where the asia-pacific economic cooperation summit is actually taking place, this is the first visit of a chinese leader to america in the last six years, and the second: a personal meeting during the biden presidency. it is known that the presidents will discuss, in particular, the war at close range in the east and in ukraine. white house spokesman for national security john kirby told reporters. he added that china could play a role in helping the us support ukraine. i think that they will certainly want to talk about what is happening in ukraine. the president will make it clear that we will continue to support him. against russian aggression, china could play a role here, helping us support ukraine, helping advance president zelski's vision of a just peace. in the office of the ukrainian president

believe that the ukrainian issue will be the key topic of conversation between the two leaders. mykhailo podolyak, adviser to the head of the president's office, said this on the air of the telethon. among ukrainian experts, the forecasts that preceded this meeting were divided. some believe that these negotiations are a positive signal for ukraine, they say they can. be lifted restrictions on the supply of drones to kyiv, and others believe that during this meeting, xi may oppose ukraine's move to the eu. let's analyze what the leaders of the two countries can talk about, together with pavlo klimkin, minister of foreign affairs of ukraine in 14-19 years. congratulations, pavle. greetings to all, friends. why do you think the biden cc meeting is happening now and who is interested in it. more, who may have acted as the initiator?

both the americans and the chinese are interested, but in different ways, it is very important for the americans now to stabilize relations with china, taking into account the situation and security in the pacific space, taking into account that the presidential elections in taiwan are approaching in january, that relations are very tense due to the latest technological restrictions on exports to china, but also very active and often dangerous actions of the chinese armed forces in relation to american aircraft in the pacific space. the chinese also understand very well that they cannot afford further deterioration: relations and the trigger here was, as you all remember, nancy pilosi's visit to taiwan, where the chinese were still growing over the territory of the united states,

so this is a wishful thinking, they are wonderful understand that it will not be possible to fundamentally improve relations, but to stabilize and to normalize, if you want such a verb, is the desire of both parties. i understand that we have to look globally. situation, of course, we are talking about the global interests of these countries, we are doing it, but at the same time, of course , the position is interesting, can it change, the position of china on ukraine, here in the white house, the day before the meeting, they announced that china refrains from supplying weapons to russia for the war against ukraine, and the telegraph publication in its investigation wrote that since the beginning of the invasion, russian companies have received tens of thousands of means for war from china, so what is china's role in the russian-ukrainian war, and will it change after this meeting with biden? yes, changes are possible and very important for us, but we must understand that the main issues

on the agenda of the meeting between biden and xi relate to the export of technology, to the regulation of artificial intelligence, to the transition to clean technologies, since a significant part of global emissions are precisely chinese and china continues to build coal-fired power plants, it is very important to understand what the safety will be... the situation around this, i would say the wide pacific space, here it is very important that the exchange of information is resumed, that there is at least a minimal verification of military activities on both sides, and i think that there will be progress here, i already hear that an agreement has been reached, which very important to americans and the us administration, it is about

limiting the production and possibly the export of chemicals used in the production of synthetic opioids, in particular fentanyl, this is a crazy problem for the states, every year more than 1000 americans from that's dying, you can imagine, and it's all flowing from mexican syndicates or from the us, the mexican border, by the way , is a distraction... attention from us in the domestic agenda of the united states, which is directly related to our issues, there are red lines that biden will 100% announce everything about the supply of aircraft weapons, you said about it, but the main thing is technology and dual-use goods. russia cannot produce the microchips it needs, and it

cannot produce many components for it of its weapons, and it is precisely these dual-use goods that are actually used in the russian military industry, their export, they are quite critical, that is, china has leverage over russia, as far as the eu and nato are concerned, then i do not think that our advancement to the eu is , is a fundamental danger for china, and there, this is how it is perceived, but joining nato is of course a problem, and the problem is not because of the prism of our advancement to nato, but a problem because of the fact that china sees nato and the possible increase of nato's presence in the pacific spacious, as a threat to ourselves, that is, our joining nato will make the alliance stronger, make it more stable, increase its

potential... both military and, of course, human, in the end, so the chinese globally do not like it very much, and in general they promote another concept of security, which they call shared security, that is, common security, and they consciously contrast it with the concept of collective security, which we hold so dearly and which we are fans of, and whose representative, if you like, is the north atlantic alliance. so i don't think that the conversation, which is planned there for at least four hours and i think it will last even longer, since there are many serious issues, it will bring some fundamental breakthroughs for us, but there can certainly be changes in position, and i rather expect such positive changes for

us in this sense, the better sino-american relations, let's say, the more stable, since no one hopes for improvement fundamentally, the better it is for us, and these agreements can be stable, well, in the context of what is in the u.s. , there are elections in a year, if trump becomes president, he has declared that he will end the war in ukraine even before his inauguration, as far as the agreements with biden are concerned for the cia, they are stable, long-term, and this agreement can be so strategic for the years ahead for the united states and china. i think xi will want to make a few passes, in football terminology , to biden, since the chinese don't like trump very much either, the trump wing and generally the conservative wings among the republicans, they are always so hawkishly anti-chinese.