[000:00:00;00] but if we talk about the general situation, then everything that was good in this meeting was to our advantage, everything that was not resolved, unfortunately, is left behind, and these are the moments that were still agreed to be renewed, regarding the circulation of narcotic substances , regarding the resumption of military cooperation, which is actually a very important point, because just after the visit to ninsipolos in taiwan, if i am not mistaken, china china in one line... in order essentially stopped the communication between the united states military and their chinese military, or can it be considered this is a return at least to zero from such a big, big minus? well, if we take the reference point last year on november 22, when there was a meeting in bali. in principle, i think that they

are leveling the situation to that level now. she has already become quite emotional, and what was shot down by these so-called spy bullets, of course, these were already american reactions to china's quite active activity in the usa, in acquiring additional technologies there, as the chinese do it all over the world, and they decided for themselves in a bilateral trade plan question, china agreed to purchase... i don't know the number, but for sure more than a hundred american boeings, and accordingly, the usa will sell to china at normal market prices, in particular, agricultural products. in the economy, the two sides reached solutions, as far as military issues are concerned, they did not have such deep military cooperation , it is about three things, the first is the line of communication, the so-called red line, when the escalation

becomes threatening, there is a line between the military, there is such a line, by the way, washington and moscow also have resumed the work of the military-political commission, well, it’s not exactly the commission that we have, for example, on deepening the purchase of weapons there, something else, no, these are again political issues in the military sphere, well, also on maritime issues, in them there is another commission, they are also resuming this work, that is, they will actually fill these relations for the next year with such demonstrative steps from both sides, and i said and i think that this hypothesis is confirmed, that after all, from the point of view of internal positions it was profitable for the usa and china to pause in order to prevent it confrontation in a year when it is not beneficial for either china or the usa, i.e. the usa elections, joseph

biden needs a forecasted situation. yes, tomorrow, too, the situation is such that he expects elections in the republic of china, on january 13, that is in taiwan, and will see further whether taiwan can be controlled without the use of military means, and apparently he asked there to, well, asked or insisted, as he said, dividing the world was, in fact, such a claim, well, but at least for this period not to take any steps, the usa in the south asian part, well, china too, i i think he will refrain from reverse steps that would create problems for the united states, but whether and how it applies to the middle east and europe is difficult to say, i will only say one thing, which is the most important thing, we will not know yet, i have not seen yet

some manifestations, this is their walk in the garden, which, well, actually they without teachers discussed those issues that could be trusted only between them, and you know that the relationship of joseph biden sydzenpin is quite old, they met 10 years ago and, before things sitzenpin always emphasizes this, and it is clear that it is very important for the chinese to succeed now, because they themselves do not know what will happen in a year, because i will remind you, the position of donald trump during his presidency in the previous one was very tough. regarding china, especially in matters of economy, so the set of issues is more bilateral, and there is such an application that the world is now bipolar, and in principle it is the impression that everyone has accepted this, if you look at the comments of various publications in different parts of the world, all somehow calmly accepted that the world has returned to bipolarity, and you agree with this one the idea, mr. valery, of a bipolar world, how realistic is it in general

, how far can it be imagined that in the world now there are two... main powers, the united states and the people's republic of china, and india, and the capabilities of russia, as it looks realistically, - firstly, the forecast is like this, and i talked about it. not only me, you also said, mr. vitali, the same thing, a year ago , and in principle, the scenario, the scenario is going like this, it is not yet established, the world is bipolar, but we see the movement, as far as india is concerned, we will see how india will have his say, there really is more population now, they are somewhere trying to keep up with china in the space program and the nuclear program, although they lag behind in the nuclear program in terms of the number of warheads, it is obvious, but as for russia, well, russia is not here, in my opinion, it is already clear.

russia in an independent version, as they are, in their, in some brains of such sick people, they said, a multipolar world, referring to russia, it is obvious that she will be a player, russia will not be a player, and someone says that they could even to discuss how and what to do next with russia's nuclear potential in the future, well these are such assumptions, speculations, i think that we are unlikely to find out, but russia is gone , will there be india, it is difficult for me to say whether there will be india, because india has a lot of its own internal problems, and the fact that there will be an aggravation in this region, well, it all goes to that, because a lot of contradictions have accumulated there, nuclear countries are sharpening china, in fact, there are... unpredictable actions of north korea, and well, i don't know what else russia can offer here, except nuclear nuclear potential, which was inherited from the soviet union, but indicatively sidzenpin

did not pay any attention to the russians, i will say one thing, we did not pay attention to apec at all, it so happened that everyone came to the summit of asia-pacific cooperation, but this summit did not interest anyone at all, everyone was interested. this bilateral meeting, but in fact russia was there, the russian deputy minister of defense was present, they were in the economic bloc, they were not visible at all, it is not that china did not notice them, they were not even noticed there by those countries that participated with this apek of the system, that is, there is no, there is no russia, and that's why in principle, the further russia will fight against ukraine, the more its subjectivity in the world will fall, not... become, and this is a huge mistake of putin, because he already thinks the opposite, but you can see that russia's subjectivity is falling

, really, and this is one of the results of this apec summit, where i emphasize once again, russia was completely speechless, so look for some material that russia has announced something at apec, try it, i did not find any material, but if we talk about voting, let's talk about it. talking about a vote in congress on aid to ukraine, well, we are already at the point where the situation is changing dynamically, and there are two scenarios, i will say the main ones, the first scenario is still the best for us, the package is being voted on, where there are not only funds, but there is such a plan per year, how to keep the situation under control in ukraine. there are not only funds for military supplies, but also for our stabilization in the financial sphere, the social sphere , the social sphere is very important, and the package has not yet been refused by the bilidiv, will offer it, all the same,

where together with israel and with other issues, this scenario is possible, but still i consider it less likely, after all, a more likely scenario, when one way or another it will come out separately... a decision on ukraine, a separate vote, and then everything will be combined not into a package, in law, but synchronously voting, here is something of this plan, on israel, on ukraine, on other issues, and here now it arises, the most difficult thing is timing, i.e. time, well, now a conference is taking place in halifax, there are statements of senators, congressmen, the united states, and our members of parliament there participate. they say that voting is still possible in mid-december. to be honest, i look more pessimistically at this story, for now, i still think that, unfortunately, this situation, with the fact that

the temporary budget was made, gives a very long gap, until the month of february. moreover, unfortunately, there remains a risk that no aid to ukraine will be voted at all, except for military aid, which can be placed in nda-24, that is, it is a military budget, that is , such a situation can happen, and now the republicans are advocating it, in order to place the funds ukraine only for military purposes, budget. military, and this is not a very favorable situation for us, but nevertheless, the plus is that now there is no delay in the delivery of what has already been planned, and the head of the pentagon spoke about this literally yesterday, that now there is no shutdown and all, all the work goes to the military, they distribute the funds that remain for certain packages in order to maintain the current situation, well, but in any case

, we need to concentrate now and use these weeks to still get an understanding of next year , financing the following year, well, i'm trying to look more optimistically, although to be honest, i don't really like the scenario that is unfolding , mr. valery, during conversations with experts, americans, in particular, ukrainian ones, such news came out that some political figures, in particular in the united states, now realizing that the epic with the budget can continue, accordingly the epic with aid to ukraine and israel and so on, insist that it is necessary to look for some alternative ways of helping our country, some programs bypassing the budget itself, if to simplify, in particular for our viewers, what prospects do we have in general, well, in fact, to win even from this situation, to get help...

bypassing the budget, and then help from the budget. we have an instrument that does not work today, but if the military budget for the 24th year is adopted, there is paragraph 12:24, i am following this situation myself while it remains there, and in the event that the budget is adopted, it will be signed, in we have a lendlease tool, maybe not the best from the point of view of our government, i don't know why, because i think it is possible to sign a bilateral an intergovernmental agreement on favorable terms for ukraine, and this lend-lease does not necessarily have to provide for the return of all weapons , that is, it depends on how we write it all in the agreement, and therefore, if there is such an instrument on the table, it will be very difficult for the opponents, by the way, the republicans supported it, and this is exactly what can unite, maybe yes, there will be certain, well, less attractive conditions, there will be some funds needed before... they see, but this instrument must be returned,

this is the first, the second, you know, i was surprised, here i kind of know america, but when donald trump said that he could be the speaker of the house of representatives, i honestly, well, i honestly didn't know that there could be a situation, not a member of congress is in charge, so i assume that there are many other nuances that know the americans are deep, appropriation, that is, the allocation of funds that we can use, we have 300 million in the budget, well, 300 million is not much, but nevertheless they will definitely remain, a decision has already been made on them, therefore, i think it is necessary to look comprehensively, you have to look already now our government, really, what will happen if part of the funds are not available, how to close it, this means that we need to cooperate with the european union, first of all, well, of course, japan is helping us a lot here, but literally just yesterday

they announced... the netherlands about 2 billion for the next year, that is, in principle, there will be no catastrophe, if we gather what is called closing these holes, but everyone understands, i emphasize, it is not only about money, it is about a signal to putin about a signal to moscow, the position of the united states, in a broad sense, not only the white house, but also congress, and here there is a risk, there is a risk that the number of these people, during the elections, republicans who... will populists use such a slogan that let's give everything to america and why do we give it to the outside, will grow, so time matters, i'm sure that we, if we do it quickly, we can in principle get a result, and the us , well, it's very important that they be the leader, remain the leader, it may be even more important than the funds that come in, and again i emphasize that the plan written there is such a plan i do not see.

there it is clearly written in which directions, what needs to be closed, with what funds, i did not find such a plan in ukraine, but the americans not only give us funding, they actually plan the medium-term perspective for ukraine, and this position is important in this regard, there is such a moment, which also causes some concern, this is the mood among the republicans themselves, i saw reports that the leader of the republicans in the senate, mich... konky, is a sincere supporter of ukraine and believes that it is necessary to help ukraine, it is necessary to approve the decision to help, that as a result of such a position, he loses his position in the republican party, that is, in fact , in order to be a representative of the republican elite, it is now necessary to treat aid to ukraine much more carefully than mr. mcconnell, on whom we could count. i think mitch mccone is losing really it's not because of that , he has two key factors, one i will say is that mike johnson took over

the leadership of the republicans in the senate why did that happen because if there minority in the senate, then not the minority leader... is in charge, but the leader of the house of representatives is in charge, actually now mike johnson over mitch mcconconn, that 's firstly, secondly, there's another factor, i don't want to talk about it publicly, but it affects the fact that they are already looking at his replacement, and he knows it, he frankly said that he is not eternal, there are questions, well, there are personal ones, and they are already looking for candidates to replace him for the next period, so the position is somewhat really political. . has now decreased, and still i believe that it is not because of the fact that it is not because of the support for ukraine, support for ukraine is a popular position, therefore the republicans cannot be so blunt, those who are against, yes, even now, even against direct aid, they cannot say so publicly, but, well, i will say my subjective opinion opinion, it seems to me that mike

johnson, the leader of the house of representatives, is playing to come to the moment when ukraine will not be given aid. to the extent that the white house is asking for, and we'll see, it seems to me that he's filigree, and well, quite clearly, he's leading there, he's got other people in the party behind him, and these people are famous, everything has to do with elections, to show the weakness of joseph biden, who is in favor of maximum support for ukraine, it is very profitable for them now, and they want to drag it into, you know, what kind of game, that is, if you want to give ukraine, if you want, this is such a ... strange situation, the republicans here, unfortunately, chose a different narrative, they did not choose a narrative to criticize their opponents for insufficient aid to ukraine, which could have been said six months ago, they chose a different narrative, that the funds should be allocated inside america,

not outside, and therefore they can this line strengthen, they will put up for auction, well, what we call the border, actually i looked at what they are asking for along the border, it's not just the border, there are a lot of... positions that will help them in the elections, across texas, across arizona, in california, and in principle, a reduction, for example, in the funding of ars, this is analogous to our tax system, they want to reduce ars, expenses, and this is a political blow to joseph biden, that is , they want to lower his chances in the elections, that's all, with the situation with ukraine has become a hostage, this is a very bad story, that's why it is necessary to appeal to the republicans, to those traditional republicans, but also to the opponents. i think, i emphasize this, that it would be very correct to show the position , the real mike johnson in this whole story, because he is playing his game, he

said this a long time ago, and he is playing this game, he is winning, white house for now. thank you, thank you, mr. valery, valery chalyp, former ambassador. ukraine in the united states, the chairman of the board of the ukrainian crisis medical center, and now we will move on to another important region of the world, the middle east, the 43rd day of israel's war against the terrorist organization hamas, the 43rd day after the attack by hamas on israel, the 43rd day when a special operation takes place in the territory of the gas sector, and our interlocutor is the director of the center for near eastern studies, ihor similos. congratulations mr. igor. congratulations, and what have we come to this 43rd. day, what's going on? well, if we talk about the situation in gaza itself, then there are ongoing battles, as far as it is possible to evaluate information from the city or draw information from israeli newspapers, then it turns out that so far there are no clear

signals that hamas is ready to surrender. actually, there is one of the last, extreme, shall we say, messages from. from the israel defense forces, they say that they are expanding their operation in the gaza strip, namely in the areas of zeitoun, gaza city and in jawaliyah, and they say that these are strongholds for hamas, and we understand that the search is also ongoing al shifa hospital, the general insists that this is again a support location, and almost a decision-making center, if it was not heard here from ukraine now, can we talk about approaching some sort of climax now? well, not yet, i don't see any such signals yet that say that the parties, well, in this case, the party has achieved the tasks

they set before themselves, yes, on the one hand , we see the statements of the representatives of the israel defense forces that hamas has lost control and coordination in the sector, on the other hand, well, so far what i'm reading and seeing, well, it doesn't look like that, every day: the situation with hostages captured by hamas terrorists on the first day of their reach on the territory of israel itself, and at the same time, mr. igor, i do not see any real solution to this problem, we see that public attention is just like this, it is intensifying, today there was a march of relatives, hostages who reached jerusalem, to the office , the prime minister of israel, benjamin netanyahu , the president of the united states, joseph biden, has been talking to qatar, who can mediate, in order to get these people released, but is there any real solution to the problem, and what might it look like, well

looks like there are two ways here, or if the israel defense forces and the special services will succeed in freeing these hostages, which as of now does not look very optimistic such forecasts , or is it really negotiations and the exchange of hostages for a certain number of palestinian prisoners, well at least such negotiations are underway, the showers exist, that is, at least, there are talks about the fact that 100 by 100 may happen in the near future, but how it will happen, in what way, that is, in principle, is unclear, and if we talk about what hamas can count on in this confrontation, then reuters reports that iran's supreme leader ali khamenei actually told hamas leader ismail ghaniyya that his country would not go to war against israel

on behalf of hamas, apparently offended that hamas had not been warned of its october attack. we do not know how much we can really trust this information, we understand that even if not with our own hands and feet, then , with other options of support, iran will still be with hamas, how important this statement is and how much it generally relieves a little the degree of tension regarding the extension of this conflict between hamas and the israel defense forces? well, if we are talking about regional conflict, then without a doubt, this shows that there are no preconditions for regional conflict, and that is good news. if we are talking about iran's statements, then it should simply be considered there.

them very cautiously, on the one hand, of course, this is evidence that hamas may have exaggerated its influence on iran, and on the other hand, this may well be just a game of iran, because from the very beginning, from the beginning of this conflict, we are in principles talked about that iran will most likely not get involved in the war, this is not its style, this is not its strategy, and they will rather do, rely on their proxies and continue their own, for them the key task is to basically hold the shiite corridor, and not to fight with israel, as far as it is possible to say in principle that the arab world is like this, well, one can say cautious when it comes to the situation in the crisis between israel and hamas. there is no desire to increase the degree of tension there, yes, he is generally cautious, if we

are talking about political elites, then without a doubt, they are trying to maneuver and put pressure on the americans as much as possible, that is, they do not close any avenues for negotiations and maybe to find some kind of compromise, but there is another issue here, this is the issue of the arab street, and it ... continues to pressure and this is a problem for many arab leaders. ugh. and speaking of lebanon , it seems to me that this week there were fewer informational reasons that would allow us, in general , to fear the expansion and entry of this country, or proxy armies, of iran on the territory of lebanon, which may join hamas in this conflict. mr. simovolos, lebanon and uh, the groups that work in this

sector, is there a reduction in the degree of tension, i think what we are seeing now is a disturbing fire, that is , they are maintaining a certain level of tension, but at the same time, we we see that there is no intention to intervene in the conflict on a full scale, that is, rather, it is an exchange of such blows, without the desire for further escalation, although, of course, there are hot heads in israel, they say that it is necessary to push the hisbala to the litani river and so on, but i think , that the united states of america will not let them do it. in principle, it can be said that after all these statements of hasan , they pissed off, it is clear that ezbola is in no hurry to engage in any active military operations against the israel defense forces. this is on the one hand, on the other hand, every day we see reports from lebanon about missile attacks, about the exchange of all these missile duels, how

can it flare up again at any moment? well, it will depend. from two sides, yes, that is, if there, the nominal operation of israel against lebanon will begin, that means the situation will change, well, so far, i say, i don’t see such signs, but as for lebanon, it is obvious that they will not start a ground operation, they do not want a full-scale intervention in the conflict, if only because hezbollah is feeling quite well now in the political field, lebanese, they have resources, they have opportunities, so why should it be slaughtered as a golden chicken. if we talk about the position of the president of turkey, there was already a rally, now president erdoğan is talking about the fact that, as they say, he will definitely try to apply some measures of responsibility, even criminal to the leaders of israel, this is primarily a declaration, does erdogan really think about worsening relations with the jewish state in

the future, what does he even want to achieve in this situation? well, it is. to a certain degree of declaration, because he addresses directly his colleagues, in this case, or the participants of this rally who came to him, at his request, or to representatives of his political power, and it is clear that he does not choose expressions there, he speaks there and, as he deems necessary, at the same time, of course, in the international arena, he behaves more cautiously, offering, among other things, himself as a mediator if possible, regarding the relations between turkey and israel, well, they have long since deteriorated, that is, the problem here is that they tried to restore them, but gaza was crossed out again . erdoğan visited germany, met with the president, with the chancellor, and this visit was planned back in the spring

, in fact, when it became clear that erdoğan... would lead turkey again after the elections, and some in the german political community believed that it was possible it would be better to cancel this visit, but it happened and according to the statements of journalists, in particular, the situation resembled a tight string, so it was about the situation in the middle east and about the differences that exist in germany and turkey, in to erdoğan's person now, along with what was this video about and what emphasis would you place? well, i think that after all , the key was not the situation in the middle east, although a lot of attention was devoted to this, the key was bilateral relations, including possible lobbying by germany in of the start of negotiations with turkey on joining the european union, because erdogan does not

give up hope of starting this process. erdoğan also has koozori. and the germans understand this very well, the increase in the number of refugees in germany, if erdoğan's will is there , can simply lead to the fall of the democratic government and the coming to power of the right, so in this case, it is such a very difficult bargain, and well, yes, they are tense and not very pleasant, even obviously for both sides, tell me, mr. yehor, if we talk about one more weight. the region in which it was the turbulence of this week and the divergent events, i mean the southern caucasus, how do you see this peace process between ruhrmenia and azerbaijan in a situation where another summit of this kind was supposed to take place in the united states, in fact it was disrupted, azerbaijan says that the united states is taking a unilateral position , the united states is openly putting pressure on baku, on the other hand, minister vermeny