[000:00:00;00] our shops work, that's exactly what it's all about, the gross domestic product is forecast to be 14.5% plus, i'll tell you this, friends, in an average european country, if the gdp there increases by 15% per year, this is considered very good numbers, it's clear that we've lost a lot, we've lost somewhere around a third of the economy, and we're taking that into account. but the fact that ukraine increases its gross domestic product during the war means that production is working, or do i mean that there are jobs and, accordingly, there are normal prospects for the development of the economy, and this is including investment indicators and credit indicators of the same imf, and the world bank and other international institutions that are ready to support us with money, but you say that first of all it is a merit, we need to thank small

and medium-sized businesses so, well, you know, on everyone, everyone actually tried, yes, there was no appropriate regulatory state policy, this would not have happened, no more freedom of business had been given, yes, of course, plus, well, in fact, it cannot be said that it is only small and medium-sized businesses, no, well the national bank, let's say, yes, at first it raised the interest rate, yes, it balanced the hryvnia, now it is gradually lowering it, giving businesses the opportunity to receive. cheaper loans, and cheaper loans are business development, that is, in principle, in these force majeure circumstances, everyone managed, but of course, i will still leave to my opinion those who are closer to the people, those who adapted the fastest , these are the local self-government bodies, small and medium-sized businesses, these three pillars have become so-called drivers in

the stabilization of the ukrainian economy, we we will return to this opinion of yours today, we will join in our conversation one of those who also ensure the stability of the ukrainian economy despite the war, vasyl furman, doctor of economic sciences, together with us, mr. vasyl, we congratulate you, and actually, let us explain to ukrainians, together, let's put the emphasis, in fact, what is happening with the ukrainian economy, it would seem that it had to, in the opinion, in the opinion of someone, the headquarters of the enemies and supporters of ukraine, collapse together, together, with our entire defense sector in the next three days , since the beginning of the russian invasion, but we see that despite the war, ukraine shows quite high indicators, the imf assessment, therefore , the testimony, what is the secret, i congratulate you, thank you for the question, well, first of all, i will start with the fact that in connection with war, and we

had a big one last year: the economy minus 30%. and if we are talking about this year, well, almost the majority of forecasters, both the national bank and the amf, we can see that many, many other respected institutions agree that gdp growth this year, well, if we are talking about the forecast netsbank, and that's 4.9%. ah, this is a good indicator for a country that is at war, which, last sunday, took place in... the entire review, cooperation programs with the imf, we have already seen, let's say, the staff level agreement statements, that ukraine is there , well, most of the structural beacons have been fulfilled, and the board of directors, which will meet in the first half of december, well, in my opinion, as an expert , will make a positive decision regarding the allocation

of 900 million dollars in ukraine, that's the revision. of the program that was held last sunday, it was stated that ukraine managed to save macroeconomic stability, primarily thanks to the actions of the national bank, the government and significant international financial assistance. i will remind the audience that this year we will receive about 45 billion dollars in external international financial aid. second, it was stated that the transition from a fixed exchange rate to managed flexibilities... was successful in our country, and it was also stated that the financial system is stable and liquid, but vigilance should be maintained, there it was stated we are talking about the fact that there is an extremely large liquidity of banks and systems today, it is important that this liquidity was kept in the banking system, and therefore the national bank is doing a lot to ensure that, for example, this liquidity became term, i.e.

there were not just funds on demand, so that funds are available, by the way, just as they are increasing, that is , today in the banking system, if we are talking about deposits, the experts of the amf also highly appreciated the extraordinary stability of the ukrainian economy. increase in gdp, by the way, if everyone predicted at the beginning of the year gdp growth, well, there is somewhere between 0.5% and 1% , then today i already said, already 4.5.5%, a decrease in inflation, that is, if at the beginning of the year we had inflation of 26.6%, then by according to the forecasts of the national bank, in december inflation will be at a level of less than 6%, due to which growth, the growth of the gross domestic product is taking place, first of all, this is due to high harvests. the second is the adaptability of ukrainian business and the population to the war, and today we were already appointed to work and develop business, the third is what we managed to establish alternative ways of exporting ukrainian products, and the fourth is such a soft

budget policy, that is, significant budget expenditures and these funds are poured into the economy. it should also be noted that the international monetary fund welcomed the recommendations of the european commission on opening... negotiations on ukraine's accession to the european union, noting that ukraine has great potential for post-war recovery, but at the same time they emphasize that we need to continue reforms, and plus significant engagement investments, investments and private, and well there are state institutions or international financial organizations, i talked with my colleagues from the national bank, for example, if we are talking about next year, well, we have already heard the figure that in the budget there is a figure somewhere around 42 billion dollar deficit, it is extremely important for us to finance this figure, at the expense of external international engagements and international

aid positions, we will talk further, mr. vasyl, here i wanted to talk about the budget, mr. oleksiy, well, the budget was approved, so we we see that our income is 1.7 three hryvnias, expenses - that is, it turns out that our expenses exceed twice the income, the question immediately arises , about half of the deficit, yes, yes, yes, and the question immediately arises, yes, let's give our viewers a try to explain, subsidies, salaries of state employees, pensions, payments, social security, etc., we understand that all our revenues, they are directed to defense, at the expense of international financial assistance, we will be able to completely cover all these expenses, i am deeply convinced that yes, what is the priority of the state is the first, of course, there is the defense direction, of course, and this is talked about in principle, all budget expenditures, as well as the emphasis

of this budget on the power sector, on the restoration of ukrainian bod, that is, on the fact that we are starting to produce a lot ourselves and, accordingly, reduce dependence on our foreign partners, and i will remind you, by the way, you said it absolutely correctly, that we finance it ourselves 100%, in accordance with our revenue part of the budget, here, but here, for the sake of fairness, it should also be noted that no budget in the entire history of our independence, when it was accepted, it always had a deficit part, well, this is such a traditional story, then, which is caught up at the expense of foreign... investments, well, if somewhere, they still do not finance it, well, they cut certain state programs, and considering that in principle, now everything can be re-rented, you understand, which state programs can be cut , that is, what state programs can

be cut now, and the road construction fund, it is now simply at zero, all the money from there goes to the military, respectively tsarina, already a decision was made to transfer the military traffic tax to the state level , that is, those things that can be waived, that can be optimized, about these cobblestones, yes, about these stadiums and everything else, now we have to concentrate as much as possible on ensuring the viability of the state, that is, this is the military sphere and this is the provision of social guarantees for the disabled, for pensioners, well , that is, the entire social block must be provided , including with the help of credit funds, foreign non-recourse funds, well and accordingly donor funds, so that we already understand that the imf and the world bank will open a serious credit line for us there

, recently germany's aid until next year has increased to 9 billion euros, and we see that even if aid from the united states slows down a little states, then international institutions and, accordingly, the european union and specific countries of the european union are ready to support us in this. mr. vasyl, do you like this sum of 15 three hryvnias of the deficit, which the government imposed on us. next year in the budget, it doesn’t scare you, shouldn’t it scare us, how will we overcome it, where to shock the funds, something has already been mentioned, maybe you have some secret insights, share them, it ’s not about one and a half million and not even one and a half billion, yes, yes, i may have heard, which means that the number is really big, and we have to be frank, again, the number is big on the one hand, on the other hand, we are a warring state. and today, the external international financial aid that ukraine receives

has one but, this but consists in the fact that we cannot spend funds on the military-industrial complex, on the salaries of the military or other issues related to the war, and therefore it is extremely important for ukraine, on the one hand, to earn, well , the revenue part of the budget is the funds of taxpayers of natural and legal entities of ukraine, and here it is necessary definitely work on increasing this part, but not at the expense of increasing taxes, but we know a lot, for example, we had a shadow economy there in the past, in matters of tax administration, i.e. matters of business development, i.e. in this direction, in my opinion, on mine opinion, as an expert it is necessary to work, now on the other hand regarding the financing of the deficit of the state budget, look, if you take last year we had a deficit of 30%, so that you understand, if we are talking about the 24th year, then this figure should be there somewhere around 20%, that is, it decreases significantly, although in absolute numbers it is significantly large, if... i spoke, for example, about the fact that this year we managed to finance 45 billion

dollars, receive external international financial assistance, then in budget next year, this figure is about 42 billion dollars, at the expense of which it will be financed as of now , so as of now we are talking about the fact that we can receive funds from the international monetary fund in the amount of 5.4 billion dollars, for this we need to successfully pass the appropriate revisions of the program cooperation for emf, the second is from america, where we plan to receive 8.5 billion dollars from them next year. yes, we know how difficult it is, now issues are being resolved in the usa, there, regarding the budget, regarding aid to ukraine, but i am an optimist, i hope that we will be able to receive this aid from the usa, in addition, the plus of this aid is that it goes in the form of grants, that is, it is not returned. the next figure is the eu, the eu plans to give us, ah, 18 billion dollars , a big figure, there are long-term loans at low interest rates, again there is

a decision there, according to the european commission, on the creation of a corresponding fund there, a balance of 50 billion for 4 years euros, we still need approval there by other bodies, and we hope that we will successfully pass this, and so we have a delta there, if we are talking about the deficit of the state budget, that is, that next year we need to finance 9 billion dollars , that is, according to the estimates of the ministry of finance, we will be able to finance it at the expense of funds from other countries or international financial organizations, that is, that is why we plan next year, no matter how difficult it may be, and by the way, the situation is also well, it is not easy, and the higher political leadership of the state, the president, the government, the ministry of finance, the national bank, are doing all the necessary work to attract funds, external financing, because it is extremely important for you and me to maintain a reliable financial defense, as well

how to keep the defense at the front, and what is kept at the front, so please, now mr. oleksiy, trailer, yes, let’s go, literally, i’m just continuing my colleague, such a nuance that he already mentioned, i’m talking about it spoke about the fact that we finance our defense and industrial sector through taxes and fees, and by the way , last year and the year before last, we were helped a lot in the social sphere to finance not only here and there credit funds, but also medicine, education, yes, that's it, but also specific target funds, that's all protection organizations health, institutions from the united nations organization, the global fund, i.e. there are still many social services there, this is of course non-refundable aid, medical equipment, aid to rural dispensaries there, provision of ambulances, by the way, teachers in schools are paid extra wages.

also at the expense of this aid, that is, we have to understand that foreign donors, and international institutions that give non-returnable grant aid, of course , within the limits of their statutes, cannot allocate it to us for the defense industry, and for our development of the military industry, but as they sold, as they helped us in the past years, and now they continue to help us, because these programs of financial support, they are not one-year, but they are multi-year. they are three, for five years, that is, what i am leading to is that the social sphere will be provided, in principle, it was very nice for our viewers to hear that, thank you, mr. vasyl, what we did not have time to ask at the beginning of our conversation, but i am asking now , this is about the imf forecast and its improvement, actually, what does it affect, or somehow this forecast, it has a practical application, this may be a signal to investors that despite the war, ukraine is moving, with a firm path, and there is

something to think about and it is possible to invest, other options are possible, name them, please, yes, in which areas are you particularly interested, as in your opinion, mr. vasyl? which can be the most attractive for investment? thank you for the question, look, always when they make their macro forecasts, whether the international monetary fund, whether there are experts from the edb or the world bank, for example, i was usually surprised as an expert by their conservatism, that is, they even the recent one showed an increase there, well, it was six months ago, that the growth will be somewhere at the level of 1% there, there 15% this year, and i was surprised, although the national bank or the government there already, that is... they saw much better forecasts, regarding of ukraine, that is why the updated macro forecast of the international monetary fund, such an improved one, is equal to 4.5 percent, that is, this is how it inspires me such good hope for the ukrainian economy, despite the fact that there is no need, as they say, to engage in cap-tossing, that is,

the situation is very it's really not easy, well economy, that is, we understand it, that is, today we have macro stability, currency stability, low inflation there, a stable hryvnia, thanks to the professional actions of the national bank and the government there, on the one hand, but also thanks to significant international financial assistance and the successful actions of our soldiers there on the front, you understand, that is, there is such a whole balance, such puzzles, when they add up, then you have the corresponding results, so if something does not happen, it will not add up, that is, well, we often felt like the hryvnia, remember, there used to be reactions to certain events, that is, but today we even play games. by the way, she got used to it, that is, i said, one of the factors, ah, well, let’s say this, the growth of the european union , the receptiveness of business, there uh, and the population in war conditions, and they work, so do the hryvnias, by the way, she adapted, that is, we had already observed, i remember , there nine months ago, there a year ago, during blackouts, shelling, the hryvnia did not

fluctuate, that is, as it was before that, that is, if we we are talking, by the way, about forecasts of the ukrainian hryvnia, then such an indicator that speaks of stability is the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the national bank of ukraine, and here is the forecast of the national bank of ukraine regarding its certified gold and foreign currency reserves of the national bank, so if we are talking, for example, about this year 23 year, the guarantees of the national bank should amount to about 42 billion dollars. if we are talking, for example, about the 24th year, then the gold and currency reserves of the national bank should amount to about 45 billion dollars there, well , the same in the 25th year, this is an odd figure. a huge plus for our ukrainian hryvnia, because it means that we are at the expense of, we can organize the ringing, that is, the hryvnia, and this is how we do today, in fact, when we moved to a controlled course of formation, and a lot of experts said about the fact that the hryvnia can fly into space, but at the same time we see that it is not in space, it is on

the ground, moreover, the hryvnia has even strengthened, compared to the rates when there was a fixed rate of 36.6, i.e. for interest-free operations as of now they course is less, but again still, this does not mean that the hryvnia cannot fluctuate , it can fluctuate in one direction or another, as the national bank of ukraine has repeatedly stated, but the high indicators of the national bank's gold bullion reserves indicate that we will receive significant international financial help, yes, this is a difficult issue, difficult work is carried out by the higher political leadership, but even i had a conversation with colleagues there today at lunch, just when i, well, they shared their impressions, cooperation with, well, participation in the delegation from the international monetary fund for last sunday in warsaw, i was simply raising this issue, simply, well, again , under the basic scenario, we will be able to get external financing, heard, heard, mr. vasyl, here is mr. oleksiy, before we introduce the next guest now, i wanted from you , here you are as a person who specializes in the problems and prospects, let's say, of our

regions, which in your opinion, but if we touched on this topic indirectly, which, let's say, industries, probably, which regions will be able to... get the most from these investments after the end of this war, well, on the condition that ukraine will win, in which we undoubtedly believe, in that, yes, what industries you singled out, well, in our country, we need to start with the fact that the structure of the economy has really changed, and in in principle, as we already mentioned on the air today, it began to adapt very much to the conditions that have developed, we have begun a very serious digitalization of processes, and due to this... figures, which, by the way, in many countries of the european union, well, of these, the most, well, let's say resonant, this is the same gambling business which... is constantly giving very serious taxes to the state budget from month to month, but

not only that, a lot of industries that include this, the digital segment, are becoming interesting both for the domestic investor and manage to attract external, what are the specifics, external and any investor actually wants to attract investment in something stable and that will not be attacked by an enemy missile tomorrow, that's absolutely. obviously, this is already digitalization, it provides certain guarantees of stability of investments, and therefore opportunities forecasting, in obtaining income, in agriculture, also, this is, in my opinion, a very serious driver , nature helps us, friends, it should be noted, this year there is a great grain harvest, and due to the restoration, again, of the corridor, the sea corridor, already without the russian federation, we manage to get a lot of foreign currency. to stabilize the hryvnia at the expense of this, but we drew certain conclusions from this crisis with poland, we began to invest and

the state opened credit programs for the processing component, i.e. for next year we already get a much higher recycling , a much higher percentage of recycling, and that's just a plus, don't forget the military industry, the military industry is currently developing at such a pace, high-tech air defense systems, these are drones, these are drones, this. such drones, analogues of which there are not so many in the world, moreover, they undergo daily military testing in real combat conditions, and therefore the cost of such products on the arms market is much higher, but at these prices in fact, and they will become the drivers of the ukrainian economy , and of course, finally, the sphere that has a large multiplier effect, this is usually construction, this is usually restoration. it affects many adjacent industries at the same time and provides many jobs, that is, prospects in ukraine for growth next year

on the gdp economy, of course, there is a list from mr. oleksiy koryachenko for those who can now think of where to invest within the country, let's hear another list from ilyna skhodovskyi, an economist. mr. ilya, we congratulate you, in our conversation, actually something was already mentioned, maybe something was not taken into account. please share your thoughts on which industries will become flagships of ukrainian industry and business in the coming months and years? named, i would continue as follows, if our agriculture is developing, now we will fix the sound and communication, and we hope that we will hear mr. ilya, to the words of mr. oleksiy, if we return to the topic of regions, you talked about. the agricultural industry, and about its prospects, however, i understand that it is precisely one of the most affected by the war, because the fields are mined and

the lives of farmers are dangerous, despite this, you say that it still remains very profitable and progressive, yes promising, let’s say, of course, well, you know, on the one hand, there is such a large number of territories under the occupation of the shegid, a large amount of which has been mined, well, that is , the damage caused is very substantial, including ecology , not only in ukraine, but in the entire region, let’s let's be honest, here, but at the same time, farmers in the controlled ukrainian territories are switching to other technologies, increasing the fertility of gravels, and, accordingly , increasing the amount of grain that they receive from their sown areas, respectively, well, i emphasize once again, nature helped us even this year with a very large harvest, and this raw material. component, it is actually, considering that our metallurgy

, our machine building, our heavy industry suffered even more destruction, now this segment is agricultural, yes, it really remains for us the one that keeps our economy in balance and flowing. thank you for explaining. mr. vasyl, i am sure that you also have opinions about which industries will develop the most, the most actively, because it is clear that ukrainians. business, ukrainian entrepreneurs, they have demonstrated a fantastic, fantastic ability to adapt, even in war conditions, relocation alone is one of the enterprises that is worth it, and here ukrainian business has enormous respect and honor, so how do you see the further development of ukrainian industry, of ukrainian various industries, business, including where we will move, look, the war had a negative impact on everyone, on the state, on the population of ukraine and on business, and practically everyone

suffered, so the answer here was will very simple, that is, in the recovery, especially after... the period, almost all industries in ukraine will grow, i would only like to add, well, to those industries that have already been mentioned, for example, processing, this is extremely important for our state, because before the great war, and before the little war, probably, that is, until the 14th year, that is, we were such a low-tech raw material country, that is , we export a lot of raw materials, but this is also a minus, because we earn little, in because of the war, we can't extract much now, with the blockade seaports, that is, there are now problems with exports, and therefore there are low prices, especially for agro-industry products, this is a minus on the one hand, but on the other hand, it encourages the development of agro-processing in our country, i have already heard about a lot of projects regarding processing, which is starting to develop here in ukraine, is a huge plus, because in the future it will give significant, significant added

value, and it can be some local small or some large-scale regional level, it can be various enterprises, for example, it could be a grain processing enterprise there, so that, for example, you know which country is the number one producer of flour in the world, well, it is our neighbor, well , turkey, but it received a lot of grain, and received it from ukraine and processed it there , that is, it is usually important for us to build similar enterprises here in ukraine, the only question is that why there are so many in turkey, well, it is number one there in the field of flour production or many other products, because they had the appropriate and there is a corresponding state program to support the development of industry, er, this is extremely important, so similar programs are needed in ukraine, i understand that there are problems with money there, but by the way, at the same time, we have 579 programs that today support the development of small and medium business in our countries, such an important industry

that we need to talk about, it is still the financial sector, the financial banking... sector, that is, they have a positive influence, they have a positive influence on the development of the economy, and if we look at lending, for example, historically, it was not at a high level relative to gdp, it is less than 15% of gdp, if you look, for example, at countries such as poland or eastern europe, where the indicators are 40 or more percent of gdp, lending is that is, what is lending, that is, it is also funds for the development of the economy, for the development of various investment projects, that is why the banking system, today during the war, we observe that thanks to the reforms that were carried out during the eight years before the great war, that is, today we are reliably we will get a financial blow, the banking system is solvent, we work 24/7, we keep the funds of individuals and legal entities , it is extremely important to activate the participation of banks in lending, the only question is how to do it, because when you talk to many bankers today, it is not even that

there are high interest rates that are on the market, that is, regardless of the fact that the rate is calculated... the national bank of ukraine has reduced it three times this year, but the key factor today is that what holds back lending is the war, security risks, and extremely is it is important for the war to end, then it is clear to the banks that it will be easier to lend, that is, there will be more tacitized risks. the second factor is also the attraction of investment, from abroad , of ukrainian private investments, that is, for the reconstruction of our state, and by the way , the third factor is also funds... frozen assets of the central bank of the russian federation or in general the assets of the aggressor country there, that is, it is extremely important financial resource, because we know that the losses of our state are both business and population, it is hundreds of billions of dollars, and we well, we all understand, well, in fairness, that the aggressor has, and the aggressor must compensate us for them and return everything to the last penny , thank you, mr. vasyl, we are grateful to you for joining our conversation, vasyl furman,

doctor of economic sciences, was together with us at this hour, friends, we still know that we have to talk, which would be useful, yes, for our dear viewers, perhaps among them there are investors who are also ready to invest in ukrainian business, about the fact that the investment industries will change, and after our victory, that's the thing, we are now looking at the situation quite linearly, yes, because of the call for war, but still linearly, we can now , as of today, understand which industry is, which industry is more modern, which industry is more promising, and i would already suggest looking in the context of the decision of the european commission, that ukraine has fulfilled about 90% of the conditions to receive an invitation to officially become a member of the european union, in december we are waiting for such an official decision from the european council, so i am still