[000:00:00;00] he will most likely not have it, because it will be his only way to avoid any further punishment, because he will always appeal that he , you know, this is our incredible first amendment to the constitution, which gives such an incredible freedom of speech, but on the other hand, when this person is elected president, he has incredible popularity, because if trump had 5-10% popularity, he would be spoken to in a completely different way, but because of the fact that there is now a large crowd of angry people behind him armed people, he is treated very carefully, and yes, the judges will not have an election, he will be found guilty when it comes to the jury's decision, trump always loses, so he always delays everything as much as possible, but this will be an incredible precedent, when a person is elected, well, as it were, first from the courtroom, then

possibly from a prison cell, and that america will simply automatically digest all this, america can do everything, no, if people do not come and vote for joe biden, then we can it will turn out to be an authoritarian leader who respects kimchen in, vladimir putin so much, who will surrender ukraine, who will end there, most likely, the american experiment can end very easily, you know, i sit with friends, discuss, people say where we will run if trump will be elected, but they can be elected, so you know, in democracies in general... it is very important that people have the feeling that it is important to vote, otherwise it does not come, but now the feeling that it is very important to vote, by the way, ukraine you remembered, here we would like to discuss precisely this topic , which is also often manipulated by donald trump, about the fact that, for example, it is necessary to refuse aid and so on, now he has some kind of peace plan, as president volodymyr zelenskyy said this week

, that he is ready to listen to this peace plan of the 40th fifth president of the united states, donald trump, but at the same time, what zelensky said, it is important here that ukraine will not give the territory of occupied, temporarily occupied donbas and crimea to the country of the aggressor russia. but what is this one? trump's peace plan and why did he have it now? well, it should be taken into account that he always says that he has some kind of plan, when he doesn't have a plan, and he says so, and he doesn't even mean that... the meaning is that he just says , ukraine, you go and do everything that vladimir putin says, because trump is an absolute man of vladimir putin, who has been dependent on him for a long time, he withheld aid to ukraine when he was in power, and now he is trying to offend ukraine, now, i think that this was a very good invitation president zelensky will invite donald trump to kyiv, because he is so cool, if he is so cool, but let him come

, they will show him, but he... of course he was scared, because he is not so macho, he was afraid to go, will visit the graves of our soldiers who died during the first world war, because it was raining, so to say that he is a match is somehow in general even contradicting the facts, but of course he will negotiate with putin and of course he will surrender ukraine, so there is hope - you know after all, look at the track record, look at what trump has done in 4 years and what biden has done in his time, what happened to him, and it seems to me that the conclusions suggest themselves, you know, as biden says : don't compare me, well, with god, compare me with those against whom i am elected, so maybe against god, biden would not stand the comparison, but with donald trump, he looks quite good, quite encouragingly. as for ukraine, it is very serious now

the topic must be in the western press. that whether trump will be able to save russia from reparations, that a theoretical victory in the presidential elections will not save him, will it save russian funds from being transferred to ukraine, and some commentators, so i will not list them all here, simply globally believe that russia will not pay reparations , that the west will not be able to confiscate russian assets, is this true or not ? trump can say whatever he wants now, because when it comes down to it, he will slow down and interfere with any help ukraine and he will help vladimir putin. if we are talking about frozen russian money, then this is money that putin will certainly want to get back, and donald trump will help him in this. when we ask him to voice some positions that donald trump might take, we come up with it ourselves, because

he only talks about revenge, he only talks about: that this company is the place of the election company, that he will show everyone who interfered with him, he shoots our generals, he will arranges a camp for immigrants, you see, this is what he is talking about, what we... are discussing with you now, these are our hopes , something about the possibility that he will offer this, he does not talk about it, so that we are here, as it were, well, we hope that he has something that he did not say, and the question is, when ukraine wins, it depends on ukraine, ukraine can say that if ukraine wins , it joins, for example, nato , if there is an invitation to join nato for ukraine, then the territories that are controlled. enter, territories which are under temporary russian occupation, they do not intervene at this moment, this is one option, there is another option , when the war continues until ukraine reaches the border of the ninety-first year, you understand, western partners, they have

an opinion on this, of course, they have, well why would they not have an opinion, but the decision will be made by ukraine ukrainians, as biden and blinken say, all the administrations, not a word about ukraine without... ukraine, so there is, you know, eh, well, if the west, if possible, trumpists refuse allocate money, refuse to put the bill to the vote and behave like terrorists, otherwise ukraine has to draw some conclusions from this, and you understand that, so the situation here dictates its own conditions, but the biden administration is 110% committed to the victory of ukraine and it will be with ukraine as much as it takes, it just seems that this support will be needed, well, it is necessary to defeat the trumpists themselves, in fact, regarding the support of ukraine, i understand that now we should wait for thanksgiving day and what will happen after

thanksgiving day, yes, when there will be another attempt to vote on the allocation of funds, and correct me there, but it seems we can go, aid to ukraine can go in a package with the strengthening of the southern border of the united states, and here i mention the polls. a week and a half ago in the united states on the support of the american population of israel and military aid to israel and ukraine and military aid to ukraine, 31% of israel is against, it seems 53% of aid to ukraine, and this is the population, this is the electorate, and its opinion is also worth calculate, the odds, given the position of the population, the odds that the aid package will be voted on after thanksgiving, as you estimate, we have... literally 40 seconds, i think что сейчас this is considered a priority for the administration and for the congress, to provide assistance to ukraine to all democracies and our southern border before christmas, because now

we are already in the state of holidays, and now they have a very short window when it is possible to pass such bills before we enter the election season, when practically nothing can be done, so this is very important because... i think this is the number one priority for the administration and for the majority of members of congress. thank you, mr. yuriy, for joining the conversation, yuriy rashkin, mp of rock county, wisconsin, host of the youtube channel, he was on a live video call. well, now let's talk about special bots, dubious telegram channels, and even about ukrainians who are financed by the kremlin. this is another russian army that is fighting against us, but in the information space. every day, the occupier uses his propaganda... are spending crazy amounts of money, the main goal is to sow panic among ukrainians and make us quarrel. in recent weeks, their followers have been actively spreading new theses. for example, our partners gave up on ukraine, or that we

will not survive this winter due to massive shelling. our lyudmila gavryliuk analyzed fresh russian propaganda and is ready to debunk it. let's see. they are everywhere, in social networks on russian tv and even in ukrainian telegram channels. russian propaganda, this is another occupying army, which fights against ukrainians, the main weapon is lies. groups of the russian armed forces destroyed 15 airplanes, three helicopters, 920 units of armored vehicles, including 16 leopard tanks. for the russians, informational and psychological attacks are another weight of influence on the psyche of ukrainians. the more defeats they have at the front, the more active they are. possipaks disperse their narratives in our society. russia probably started its information war against ukraine in 1991 . now after the start of a full-scale invasion, it should be understood that russia is not

did not achieve any of the stated plans. the only mechanism they see now and which they are trying to activate is the influence on ukrainian society from within. that is, demoralization, that is, new. while the russians are on the defensive at the front, their propaganda machine is actively working. fakes are coming from all sides. we will now analyze and analyze the newest ones. a new attack from belarus, this has never happened, and here it is again, for the third time, the russians are spreading the word about an attack from belarus, according to them, they will attack before the new year, even more so this time in kyiv they will capture, but this propaganda is easily debunked by simple mathematics, there are only 500 russian soldiers in belarus now , military experts say, and this is banally not enough for an offensive, but these messages are being spread specifically to force ukraine to strengthen our northern border, drawing reserves there, there there are no such groups from belarus that

can now take any serious offensive actions from our northern border, there is a limited number of ways to advance, and all these ways are under our control, aerial reconnaissance, visual reconnaissance is conducted, the failure of the ukrainian counteroffensive, the russians accept what they wish to be true, therefore they actively disperse disinformation about our failures on the front, the narratives here are unchanged, ineffective, neither the ukrainian... army, nor western weapons, so release temporarily occupied territories, according to them, we will not be able to, and this is another psychological impact on ukrainians, because despite everything, our army continues to advance. regarding the de-occupation of all temporarily occupied territories, we have a plan, and according to this plan we are moving, there is no stopping, we will continue , we will not give a single moment to the enemy, take a breather, we will move on. ukraine

was abandoned by the partners. terrorist putin and his henchmen are sleeping and watching the whole world abandon ukraine. these sick fantasies inspire ukrainians themselves. now they are actively spreading messages, saying that our partners have turned their backs on us, there will be no help, and negotiations have already begun in the west to end the war, but without ukraine, this is also a lie. this story includes, well, actually traitors, people who moved there from ukraine. there are no talks now about peace next year without ukraine, because there are simply no more or less conscious contacts between western countries and the russian federation. ukraine will not survive this winter, another pressure on the psyche of ukrainians in the constant announcement of massive missile attacks. they will upload similar topics, i will not be surprised if they are there in the nearest few weeks or closer to christmas, which we will already have according to the new calendar, yes, they will start spreading it on viber or. there and so on, here is the information that you should leave urgently, because

some kind of massive missile attack is being prepared there. ukrainian military, surrender, the russians are conducting informational and psychological attacks against our military as well. mass mailings calling for surrender or calls that the authorities have abandoned them to their own devices. they continue at all levels, that is, if, well, we can say from tactical, from some summary reference point to some operational scales, that is, they see where someone is, there are some russian units acting accordingly, which create relevant narratives, they try to involve prisoners of war, they try to influence their families through them, they call for resistance, they call for some actions, disobedience. in ukrainian intelligence, they say, most often they promote topics that are actively discussed by ukrainians themselves, then twist them and already hysterical headlines spread. country, if they strike something, let's say, on

an infrastructure object, then they spread information that ukraine is unable to defend itself, the main purpose of such attacks to create a split between ukrainians , experts say, so that instead of destroying the enemy, we switch to internal political conflicts and problems, so information hygiene is extremely important now, so as not to be influenced by russian propaganda. lyudmila havrylyuk, we are ukraine, marathon, edine news. 4:44 on the clock, a great time to talk about money, the gdp of ukraine continues to grow, according to the ministry of economy, our gross domestic product increased by 10.5%, compared to the same period last year, such indicators, they say, managed to achieve thanks to a good harvest and favorable weather conditions, according to the minister of economy, yulia

svyridenko, the service sector had the most positive contribution to gdp, and also the production sector, it shows steady recovery, but there are restraining factors, she says, significant destruction infrastructure, the preservation of essential security risks, restrictions on export logistics and the slow recovery of the labor market, as well as the lack of sufficient equity capital and available credit funds, that is, there are enough problems in principle, well now let's figure out what all these numbers mean with ivan us. he is the chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies, candidate of economic sciences. we welcome you. our congratulations. good morning, mr. sergey, mr. nikita and tv viewers. uh, sir. ivan, let's start, well, let me remind you once again about this figure, about 10.5%, compared to october last year, that's how much gdp grows, but we all remember the year 2022, and by the way, i'll add that this year's economic growth also estimated at 5.5%, and now, let's go

let's figure it out, well, it's a little or a lot, because the 22nd year was very, very difficult for ukraine. was definitely very difficult, i will remind you that the drop in gdp was almost 30% there last year, so this year i would add , let's say, the effect of the comparison base, yes, but also adaptation, that is, ukraine, it began to adapt to new realities in which it exists, and began to look , let's say, for ways to restore its economic development, and you know, about a week ago, i was at the forum of ukrainian exporters, and there was quite an interesting moment when a representative of one a private family-owned odessa company and he told the story that when a full-scale war broke out and they had a choice either to do nothing, or how he joked

to build a factory from scratch that would produce seals for meters, for vehicles during the transportation of goods. and how he said to wait for onyx, that is, the arrival of a russian rocket, and he said that you know, we actually built a plant in 2022, it started functioning on the 23rd, and now he says, we have only one idea, where to find a patriot , a missile, an anti-missile system that will cover their plant, that is, i mean that, in principle, the business has moved away from the first shock, it is starting to look for options on how to develop further, we see. that this is not even some simple production, this is the production of the machine-building industry, that is, other companies have also realized that yes, unfortunately, there are new realities, at the same time, they do not mean that this is the end of their activities, so you can look for ways to develop, plus ,

you know, another moment that encouraged the development of certain activities, these were grants and loans, which ukraine received, and by the way, the negative component of all this activity , this is very similar to the crazy growth of imports that we are observing in 2023, because realistically, based on the results of 10 months, we have a negative balance of 22 billion, although, if we return for the same period in 2022, there was a balance somewhere, if i am not mistaken, of 5 billion , that is, it grew very rapidly for me, why, because indeed resources entered ukraine and ukraine began to buy more goods, and this, not only armed, because armed, as you know, it is the article is closed, but here are other products that, of course, do not belong to this sphere, but which also demonstrate that there is still activity,

the economy is developing, and we will see what the result will be at the end of the year, but let me remind you that in may of the current year, both the world bank and the european bank for reconstruction and development said that there would definitely be growth, the only thing they said was that it would be a corridor of one to two percent, but now , most likely, it will be necessary to talk about 5 percent or something like that this mr. ivan, but at the same time, to support that fire gross domestic product, we need money from our partners today. here, the ministry of finance published very good statistics the day before, who gives us how much, it is good that the lion's share is grants, or guarantees, or non-returnable funds, there is a very small number of loans, and if there are any, then at a low rate percentage, but there is an interesting point, that is, bonds of the domestic state loan, together

with military bonds, they are in the second place, in the general list in terms of the amount of funds involved in the budget, well, until for example, if this year we received us dollars from the european union, then thanks to bonds we attracted 14 billion. the united states is in third place, there are 10 billion 900 million dollars, and to what extent we have already used this, well, it is not a golden key, it is a tool , such as bonds, ours, and military bonds , including what reserve is still left here for, for example, for the 23rd year, for the 24th year, it is first of all important that we really demonstrate to our partners that not only at the expense of their funds do not exist, we have bonds

intrastate loan, in principle we have, albeit not so high, the export activity of ukraine, they also bring us some money, unfortunately, we are limited due to, let's say, the suspension of the functioning of the black sea grain initiative, that is, we, everything that uses the black sea , at the same time we have to lose time due to the fact that we have to go through the internal waters of the country. which include the donats and neighboring ukraine, that is, romania, bulgaria, turkey, and that is, it is also an opportunity to receive certain funds, aa unfortunately, again, european partners create problems for us, when at first farmers did not allow certain goods, now it is transporters, nevertheless, ukraine really demonstrates that it has its own internal tools for obtaining money, and i think that they will give us the opportunity to receive funds for the budget and the next

year, i.e., in my opinion, the internal element is also used quite effectively, but the external aid also remains, it remains, it is very important, and here is another tranche recently, let me remind you that it is an 18 billion dollar package that the european union provided for this year, we see how stable they give us one and a half billion a month, and i hope that despite, let's say, certain compositions. difficulties in accepting assistance at the european level, this assistance will be available next year as well, and this will allow ukraine , let's say, to pass the next year as well, uh, well, by the way, regarding the tools and regarding the money involved, let's remember that for the next year , the 24th, the verkhovna rada planned a budget with expenditures of more than 3 three hryvnias, there 3 three 350 billion, to be precise, 1.8 trillion, accordingly they plan: well, parliamentarians, at least they count on the fact that they will be able to attract from taxes and fees, well, and the rest will have to be raised from international partners

, and from the domestic market, which we have already started to discuss in part, i have a question here, is it too risky such a large amount, let 's say yes, theoretically put in the budget, because this money has not yet been received , well, it is not a fact that they will all be received , is it a fact, it is definitely a risk, at the same time, you know, in parallel, ukraine is having a conversation with and we constantly say that watch what you don't need let's say, to build a scenario in which ukraine can win this war militarily, but at the same time it can lose economically, because everyone remembers the experience of germany and the first world war, when there were practically no military operations on the territory of germany, and germany lost that war, despite the fact that no one allegedly took berlin, and as i said, there were no reports on its territory. at the same time, the economy of this country did not allow it to continue the war. now, it is highly undesirable for ukraine to lose under this scenario as well

war, that's why i understand that our government took this very big risk, i agree, because a lot of people said that let's somehow conduct a stress test, to what extent the economy of ukraine will be able to get through this year without foreign aid, at the same time, how much i understand, the confidence that help will come, most likely this confidence is built on certain, let's say, certain information that our partners give to ukraine, who say that you know, yes, there are internal problems in both the usa and the eu , and the rhetoric will definitely be wrong to help ukraine, at the same time, this does not mean that this help will not come, and i am not only talking about weapons, i am also talking about finances, because finances are sometimes even more difficult, why, because why give weapons to ukraine, it is clear. why give money, this is where the questions begin, how come this is a corrupt country and yet another thing, and these arguments are used

by opponents of aid to ukraine, while at the same time they are explained that this is a component of stability, that not only should weapons be helped, but activities should also be supported economy for the period, while the war is going on, and then, by the way, it will be like this, i might say cynically, but it is a difficult period in the sense that when there is no military , the economic ones will not help ukraine so much, and from here we will have to rely more on ourselves, while at the same time full-scale war is going on and while the actions are going on, i think that our partners will still find resources, because firstly, if you look at their economies, it's not that big of a sum, and secondly, they really don't want to, that the economy became the reason for the defeat of ukraine, and then, and they count that will be further, they themselves may ... have military actions, which they do not want, and in fact , what president biden said in his article in the washington post, that in order for us

directly our soldiers not to participate in the war , we need to help ukraine. both military and financial, and here is this understanding, as long as it exists, i think that ukraine's money will come from partners. mr. ivan, what about the russian federation, because the example you gave about germany, during the first world war, reduced the economy so much that it could not this country, the terrors conduct hostilities, well, in the process it played a very long time, because so far it has not been reduced enough for them to stop, despite the fact that they have decreased for months, which indicates, well, that the production apparently it has become less, because the consumption of electricity is less , their business loans and the number of companies that declare themselves bankrupt are growing simply in progression, their population owes rubles practically again, but people are hiding and people don’t care, these cards are for

products, their retirees receive and they live normally, they are happy with their 150 dollar pension, explain what other puzzle is missing here to speed up the epic that all your colleagues are talking about, everyone is talking about, but so far there are no such substantial results on the outside, at least there are none, this so perfect is the bluff of the russian ministry of finance, the central bank and their other structures that we do not see this subsidence, or whether there is really a significant demand...' there is no economy, well, first of all, let me remind you that no matter what happens, the russian economy 11 -the economy in the world, and it was even the 202nd year, sorry, we have 30 seconds, unfortunately, that's how it is, and that's why the fact that the russian economy is falling , i don't doubt it, what's wrong is obvious, unfortunately, yes, but that doesn't mean that nothing is happening there, and

i'm not sure that for the russian economy, the coming year will be very good, rather the opposite and rather we will see something negative closer to the end of next year , uh, thank you for this morning joining the air, ivan us, chief consultant of the national institute for strategic studies , candidate of economic sciences, who was not in touch with us, now literally a few minutes and we will continue the marathon. chevorony, who are approaching victory, this year's winter promises to be difficult again. the enemy is targeting critical infrastructure facilities. so we have to prepare for the most difficult scenarios. keep the heat, insulate the houses, it will be difficult, but the fighting spirit cannot

be borrowed from the ukrainians. consider an additional secure source. warm, everyone should be responsible this winter, invite your relatives, acquaintances from the regions that suffered destruction, together warmer and more fun, the best way to warm up is to engage in light sports, because our energy is enough to overcome any cold, stock up on flashlights and power banks, charge them and stock up on food, water and warm clothes, warm up deliciously, fragrant tea or a hot dish gives warmth from the inside, calories in winter they are not superfluous. make friends with your neighbors. it is easier to beat the enemy in a group, and even more so to hibernate. and most importantly, support the armed forces. thanks to them, we have the opportunity to meet this winter. and as long as we are united, we are not afraid of enemies or cold weather.

we hold each other. let's beat the winter together. a warm country: ukrainian gives freedom, even in the letters our determination and defiance are hidden. who else puts not just a dot over i, but two dots over i. ukrainian: the language of the free. let's continue the topic of the economy, exactly 5 in the morning, for the export of ukrainian grain through the baltic sea, 2 million euros will be allocated by the end of the year. switzerland 100 million over several years for demining and food products, these are the results of the second grain summit from ukraine, which took place in kyiv with the participation of the european leaders, this is a ukrainian initiative, to sell, i will remind developed countries to send them to poor regions. during the existence of this initiative , 30 countries joined it,

among other things, 170,000 tons of grain were delivered to the countries of asia and africa, this year between... we plan to send even