we are a project for smart people and those who care about espresso evenings. verdict by serhii rudenko, from now on in a new two-hour format, even more analytics, even more important topics , even more top guests, foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you you can express your opinion on a bad day with a phone survey, turn on and on. every weekday from 20 to 22 for espresso. we continue the saturday political club and our guest guest of the analytical market maxim bilyavskyi. congratulations mr. maxim. in ukraine. and we will return to the topic of this blockade of carriers in the districts of the polish-ukrainian border, and we will ask you, mr. maksym, what kind.

there will be real economic consequences of the blockade, first of all, we are already seeing a certain increase in autogas prices, certainly in the near future, the balance of autogas in the market of petroleum products of ukraine will change, and if it is not possible to divert actually 80% of the volume of propane-butane, which does not enter poland, well, accordingly, they are waiting for us, scarce times, most likely, the structure of our consumption will change and the share of gasoline consumption will increase, well, gasoline must also be taken, of course, the shortage will affect, i repeat once again, the price increase, and the price is included in the structure of the final cost of any product , which is delivered, so the prices will go up, right? i understand, in fact, absolutely

exactly, in my opinion, we need to wait for the price of the actual consumer basket to increase, because the products, any other product, it is delivered, and the actual cost of logistics is included in the final cost of this product, in addition to this, we need to understand the full scale of the problem from the point of view of the economy, unfortunately, in fact now, there is a trade blockade and what is export and what is the money for ee goods that go for export, this is currency , foreign currency receipts, if we look at the statistics, unfortunately, they are very sad, so i do not rule out that when there will be no opportunity to maintain the appropriate exchange rate of the hryvnia, we will have inflation, and after it actually...

consumer inflation, with a certain inertia, in about one or two months. in general, i i believe that such atrocities , which are taking place on the border of poland, which were actually created by a few people, uh, this is the hand of the kremlin, this is a kremlin campaign to put pressure on the national economy of ukraine, why? because few people know, but on november 7, 2023, changes were made to the customs code in ukraine, in fact , this date also coincides with the start of the outrage of this action, which we are still observing, and all this is done in order to paralyze the actual movement of cargo of ukrainian manufacturers to european markets and, accordingly, income currencies... into the national system. mr. maxim,

but if this is the hand of the kremlin, then this border crisis, this blockade, will it not be resolved? but why? so what is the situation there, its permission to hold this action was given by the commune, which is a body of local self-government in poland, and accordingly, the commune can also cancel this action, but... unfortunately, as far as i know from the press, no one from state authorities of the republic of poland did not make a corresponding request, and the same polish police, when asked by representatives of state authorities of ukraine, regarding the legality of this outrage, demonstrates the actual permission of the territorial community, which legalized,

sanctioned, such a discriminatory protest against our links of ukraine. and tell me why, that's actually what you think. that polish government officials could stop this story if they wanted to, they don't do it from an economic point of view, first of all, what is the interest, i think with a political one, that's the first , uh, secondly, we need to understand that it's not there is only the border of poland and ukraine, it is the border of the european union of ukraine, and yet i am i hope that the european commission will react to these facts, but in reality we don't have time. imagine that the products of barely working, barely surviving enterprises from mykolaiv, zaporizhzhia, dnipro are standing in these queues, and again, until

the products from these enterprises reach the final consumer, our companies, ukrainian companies of various kinds. type of property, they do not receive funds, there will be no funds for the products sold, salaries and taxes will not be paid, this is a somewhat sad situation, in relation to the economy, the economy there is no economic question, why, because the big carriers in poland, they do not accept this promotion at all, again , as far as it is known from public sources, uh, the organizers are little-known people who, uh, have little distinguished themselves in the market transportation in poland, many people do not know them, but again, the big carriers and the polish business , which depends on the delivery of these

goods, are unfortunately silent, for now they are silent, and time is passing, for example, some cargoes are standing, as far as i know , from october 26, that is it's been almost a month, ukraine has already suffered 400 million losses, if 400 mro, euros, then millions of euros, if it still lasts, how much more, what can these losses still be, and if they intervene later, well, their political situation will improve in poland, will work, the government is normal, will there be any compensation for what? we are losing what our economy is losing, there will probably be compensations, but now the question is to unblock the border, of course we expect that the prime minister, the future prime minister of poland, tusk,

will solve this issue quite quickly, in general , as far as i know, again, according to the words of my acquaintances, colleagues from poland, it is possible to unblock the border there in just 15-30 minutes. but the question is that it is now extremely important for us to unblock, the compensation will be under any circumstances, but we must remember that there is a concept of multiplier in the economy, therefore today's irreparable losses, which are caused by, including import dependent enterprises that are waiting for the entry of this or that product from the european union or from the checkpoints on the border with poland, are also dependent on this situation and bear losses , that is, importers and exporters of ukraine and not only ukraine bear losses, but unfortunately, so far few of our partners from the european union, from the business of european business, are talking about it.

thank you, thank you, mr. maksym, maksym bilyavskyi, an energy market analyst, this is a difficult situation, to say the least, but we understood from the conversation with mr. andriy deshchis that it all rests on this entire process. of the political reformation of poland and as a result it is reflected in ours i would say strategic economic interests. mykhailo yakubovych orientalist, researcher at the university of freiburg from germany 50th day of the war in the middle east, the second day of the release of hostages. what do you think, mr. mykhailo, can we now talk about the fact that this war is already moving through certain time regions. rubicon, i'm sorry. er, maybe so, it is difficult to make any predictions, but obviously it will either slow down somewhere, or continue, but at the moment even these negotiations are interpreted by both sides as

victory, such an intermediate one, even i would say, the hamas side is more happy, they say, look, we forced israel to a truce, israel did not achieve its goals, did not seize all the gas, and even here we are conducting this exchange, and today a plane arrived from qatar with a certain mission , which will ensure almost direct negotiations between israel and hamas, here the iranian factor is more actively involved through yemen and through hizballah, that is, the tension continues, but somewhere it turned into such a game of muscles, will there be a little relief next, or a new escalation, but it looks like there will be a new escalation, or even an exchange of captives and hostages, in this case, because on one side there are hostages, on the other, rather, captives, it continues, well, quite problematically, already the second group has not passed accordingly and now,

well, there is a suspicion that this so-called truce may even be broken , well, to be honest, it resembles the ukrainian truces during the anti-terrorist operation, which broke down a few hours after, after the start, how long can this war in israel last ? i think at least until then when israel achieves its goals, because to stop now is to stop halfway, israel needs to completely clear the gas as a city, what will happen next with khan younis, that is the question, but to leave things as they are now and withdraw, or even retain some control , i think the relevant forces, the israeli entourage of netanyahu, including , the israeli right, they... will not support him, so yes, maybe the operation will be even more protracted, maybe there will be less

bombing, they will work more as infantry, because the opposition is very strong to the bombing of gaza and before the military operation, including in the west, well, they are already trying to somehow slow it down due to various protests, but for israel to stop now, well, this is absolutely unacceptable, especially the goals that were set, they... are set to the maximum of complete destruction hamas has full control over gaza, and to stop now is essentially to lose the battle. and on the other hand, what could be the consequences of the continuation of the operation, especially its longevity for the relations of israel with the arab world, and for the relations of the united states with the arab muslim the world as well. the consequences can be problematic, but there is another factor involved, the thing is that there are a lot of forces, including those who ... participated in the arab spring, and the arab spring largely lost, including in egypt, where there were some

from active events, they are included in the support of palestine, and against the background of economic problems in the same jordan, in the same egypt, in the same syria, the protest potential is growing to a certain extent, and the arab governments of the arab countries are afraid that if they continue, well , keep quiet, but they actually do it there, limiting themselves to declarations on the israeli offensive, then most likely they will, well, extremely strong internal protests will begin, and they too would like israel to stop it, but either israel is already here, as they say, either win or don't even start , that is, somewhere so mediocre, well , they will persuade, they will talk, they will pressure, for which i will repeat myself once again, the qatari side is now actively initiating these negotiations. while sheltering the leaders of hamas, but netanyahu will lose a certain level

of support, it's just a matter of how much the united states and great britain are ready to go far, and they are ready to go quite far in the israeli issue this time. and what is happening now in the world with the support of palestine or hamas, i don't know, usually you can't bet on one line. we see geert wilders won in the netherlands, who is known for his anti-islamist statements, but we also see protests in defense, whether it's the palestinians, whether it's hamas, whether it's against israel, how is the world now reacting in these 50 days, has anything changed? there is a general complex issue going on here, specifically, among the leftists, especially some of the right, the support of lestina, well, mainly among the left, of course, but interesting paradoxes can be observed,

for example, the polish right-wing forces, which are actually anti-ukrainian in nature, which are now gaining a certain weight, and we see that just now you had on the air about this is a conversation, yes, historically they were supposedly against israel, yes, but even more so against arab countries, against migration, they come to power, saying that the european union wants to transfer to them all these evil arabs, all these muslim barbarians, like them they are marked, and here i look, it is extremely paradoxical, they fit in for palestine , they say look... how can we stop this genocide organized by israel, that is, we see such paradoxes that, on the one hand, a game begins on this topic, and this game has already gone far beyond what they think about the lives of some palestinians. the same game is happening in spain, for example, the catalan government, which can be considered to some

extent separatist, has started to break some relations with israeli cities. well and the level of anti-semitism, or rather anti-israel rhetoric, we will still separate these things, they have grown up in the world and it is also quite difficult to do anything about them, the protests continue, but we see that economically and on various political elements, it does not affect, simply the ground is being prepared for, well, to promote more the ideas of such, you know, universal pacifism. switching to problems that, for example, distract attention from russian aggression, and will ultimately distract from hamas aggression, i.e. conditionally growing such pacifist rhetoric, which is taken beyond the limits of any historical logic, and now we see that in fact , people who, well, hardly can

tell anything significant about the israeli-palestinian conflict or in general about the history of the middle east, often fit in for palestine, but this and it is not necessary, this is how propaganda works , and even more so russian propaganda and chinese propaganda invest heavily, that is, the trend is negative, but so far the level of support for israel by the united states, britain, germany, key allies israel, it still does not have a significant effect, at least for, and please tell me, mr. mykhailo, there is no such danger from the fact that right now these pro-khamas, pro-palestinian demonstrations are very often really the same thing, they will not lead to the strengthening of the far-right in all over europe, because the far-right always said, look at these people, they are extremists , they are coming, they are completely divided by completely different values, they will instill xenophobia and anti-semism in our europe, and we are not

like that, we just want for europe to be european, to have european values, now wilder. he actually increased by 50% in the netherlands according to opinion polls, you can say, and i read interviews with his voters in the dutch press, and they all say, we were opened, our eyes were opened on october 7, that is, the attack of hamas on israel, i have referring to those people who voted for the freedom party for the first time, and it seems to me that there can be such a delayed political effect for europe for a long time, i would say, it is not even immediate, it is already taking place, let's look, for example, at the resolutions, the most pro-israel resolutions in the un, who supported viktor orban in eastern europe, viktor orban turned out to be a very follower , an ally of israel, and wilders has already repeatedly stated that orban is an example of the right leader for him, another question,

however, how do they live in hungary, how live in the netherlands, two big differences, but no one is counting it now, the same thing is possible. to say the russian special operation carried out at one time in dagestan, in order to show how wild barbaric these muslims really are, what they can be threat, and even in the same germany we see, despite the fact that the alternative for germany, well, it is somewhere trying to play this, you know, game here and there, because they cannot, if due to the historical trauma of germany, say something, against israel, in principle. but on the other hand, it is also difficult here with the palestinian topic, yes, they have this migrant rhetoric, it is present, and it is anti-migrant rhetoric, at least in those countries where elections will be held this year, it will obviously have an impact, and i will say it again, not without assistance of information activities russian, even iranian, even some

leftists will play very well with their absolutely irresponsible statements. the right as so-called essentially useful idiots, who completely ignore the presence of two sides in the conflict, and essentially support hamas, saying that hamas did not arise out of nowhere, well, the same could be said about idol in principle, it was possible to say about any organization that it did not arise just like that, but has a historical justification, is another matter when a historian says it, another when says the politician, that's why this trend really exists and next year, when there will be new elections in various european countries, they will show that this factor will persist, and most likely it will persist, because, as i have already voiced, forecasts for the continuation of the war. after all, this is a longer conflict than it seemed even at the beginning, but we look at european countries, at their education and say that it is better, but we see that there are young people, for example,

in them the cause-and-effect relationships are somehow broken , and they do not understand what hamas is and that this is definitely not the organization that will support the rights and freedoms of citizens, why is it shouting, key, key. the key word now in european education is post-colonialism or anti-colonialism, all european education now, especially humanitarian, is based on a certain guilt of the european person, before aaa in eastern civilizations, for example, it has already come to that, i will give a very simple example, absolutely barbaric practices are practiced in africa form, the so-called female circumcision, so if at one time all... rights organizations man, it was condemned, recently in great britain several seminars were held about the fact that this is a cultural practice and it has its own right to life, why do we impose, say

, our standards of the human body on eastern civilizations, so in principle, you can play with cannibalism somewhere, they say, and why do we deserve it, it’s also a tradition and not a bad one, yes, it’s also a tradition, maybe it should be preserved, in general, it’s a feature of certain peoples and their cuisine, why we should tell them, that is, it may look anecdotal somewhere, but if you read it now for example, about student protests in various universities, as well as, well, covering absolutely all problems with only lgbt rights there or climate change, they say, it’s all not significant, the essence of climate change and everything else, well, the fault of the white person itself, absolutely proven, even when he talks... about ukrainians, or their problems in the west and so on, attention is constantly focused on the fact that they are said to be in some kind of privileged position because of their skin color, somewhere it is

noticeably less, somewhere noticeably more, but even we see now - what historiography or any attempt to contextualize the problems of the east and the west, it goes in this direction, we see many sympathizers and in fact... of the soviet union, we see now even in the united states sympathizers of bin laden, which is hard to imagine, his widow's letter, written after the terrorist attacks on september 11 or something attributed to him, but spread, that is, a generation grew up that forgot all this, even the terrorist attack on september 11 has already been forgotten and a lot of things from the 90s have been forgotten, and a generation that is in completely different world orientations, worldviews and well , when with that you don’t come across directly, it seems that it can’t be like that, but here we see that people who are affiliated with significant universities, well , they essentially carry such, you know, alternative science,

which somewhere already reaches the level of the flat earth theory, only, maybe with on the other hand, mr. mykhailo, if you remember that in the 60s and 70s, all these european, at least, universities were centers of maoist ideology, and not only students, but also respected teachers. in france or in germany were supporters of the ideas of mao zedong and the cultural revolution in china, then it may be progressing, what is happening compared to what was, maybe on the one hand progress, but the way they looked at the resurgence of some kind of communist leftist ideology, now they see that they say the world needs a strong hand, well and let's not forget that in the west, covid left an extremely strong trauma, it left it in ukraine, but it was erased by the war, in the west... there is a lot of literature, covid studies, post covid studies and so on, why? because a lot of people, on the one hand , felt the pressure of the state for the first time, i.e

the state is able to limit something, is able to do something, and on the other hand, they expected active actions from the state, and not from some transnational corporations, so when they see that somewhere a strong hand is growing, that somewhere some solutions are proposed, that somewhere such people there are like xi jinping or putin, then they begin to realize that at a certain historical moment, in certain circumstances, these people are right, that is, they correspond to their time, and the west, which is constantly trying to impose some kind of democracy there, it only loses and even, well, this propaganda, it is quite powerful, let's not forget the financial aspects, one of the main donors of european and american universities, for example qatar, invests a lot... saudi arabia invests a lot, china and russia invest a lot through various proxies, a lot of programs are funded, and it's not just about tech industries where they have some profit in the form

of technology. developments, which are then used, including in the russian war against ukraine, are also invested in humanitarianism, to put it simply, so to keep a certain degree of temperature in the chamber and even have the means to regulate it, uh, just now this youth, she is still studying at universities, then she will graduate from them, then in 10 years, she will start going somewhere in politics, but she can change during this time, fortunately people. let's hope that they will somehow change their views, because it doesn't seem like it, mr. mykhailo, it's just that all these , that's not even the point, but the point is that all these, i would say, horrors of the past, they are simply from appeared because 75-80 years have passed from the second world war, and the horror of war for the russians, who always said, oh, i wish there had been no war, and then at some point a generation grew up that says, we can do it again,

and the holocaust, when the europeans themselves, by the way, are not responsible only for colonialism, but for the holocaust, because it all happened not in africa and asia, but it happened right in europe, in many of these people, grandparents, direct participants in the murder and robbery of their jewish neighbors, in every third , if we talk about the largest european countries, about france, germany, italy and so on, and now their great-grandson, they believe that they are of no use here, and this table silver, it is not jewish, but grandmother's. well, i know this well, not so long ago i had a grandson of lotchik luftwaffe, apparently a member of the nssda, telling me how bad nato was and that apparently the ukrainians did not want to go there, but the question is different, did these people feel their war, or did the poles feel their guilt before the jews, did the french feel their war, because not only nazi germany pursued such a harsh policy, which

ended with the holocaust, there are many examples of cooperation, collaboration and anti-semitism in neighboring countries, and let's not even forget about ukrainian traumas in this matter, which have not been fully discussed, and many jewish researchers pay attention to this, that is why, if in germany , especially in west germany in the 60s and 70s, and then in the 80s, they lived with the guilt of the holocaust, then they lived with their responsibility for the unification of germany, they were scared there by chernobyl and the apocalypse in general, then, for example, in other countries many people, having simply blamed the war on hitler, felt completely at ease, saying that they had organized it, and we had nothing to do with it, but russia, russian society , on the other hand, lived through this war, constantly, that is, they had a slogan that this war did not exist, they are still fighting under this slogan, that is, for them, these grandfathers fought, collectively, the russians kept this degree in their heads, in order to

use it in chechnya at the right moment. in georgia and other western societies, on the contrary, tried to to get rid of it, to forget it, and just as we, for example, forgot the first world war, we had many participants in the first world war, but soviet propaganda did not emphasize it, that the russian empire almost lost it, but emphasized the second world war, in it was erased from our collective memory, we don't even have monuments , almost nowhere will talk about ukraine in the first world war, european and european society wanted to erase it, the german case, it may be a little different, but there the french one , british, yes they say hitler is bad, he did all that, he started the war, and we together, they say with stalin, then we won all this, and preserved civilized humanity, this is all in the past, but here, when it has an effect in the present, it is people who, relatively speaking, have zero immunity to any revival of nazism or communism, they teach them critical theory,

and under the guise of critical... theory , i will repeat myself now, you can even vaporize the flat earth theory, because if you if you don't see her clopus, it means that you are you already think critically, and therefore here in the political plan we have a lot of things that, frankly, can be considered in perspective, you know, some kind of freudian there, for example, in relation to the new mental nervousness of western society, but we will have to live with it and with it work and that. there is probably no other way out, thank you sincerely, thank you, mykhailo yakobovych, orientalist, researcher at the university of freiburg, germany, was with us, we are going to take a short break now, then we will return and continue, we will talk about main topics of the week, stay tuned. events, events that are happening right now and affect our lives.