[000:00:00;00] who knows, we will look at the management of the government, the executive power of the country, but for now it is definitely not possible for ukraine to hold elections, we need to be united, we need to unite and win this war, after victory it is obvious that later we will be able to secure constitutional rights and of the entire ukrainian people, and all, all players of the political process for the elections of ukraine, both presidential and parliamentary. mr. maxim, may i ask? as an internationalist, were there actually examples in the history of the world when elections were held during war? hey, listen, it's a very good question, i think there were, to be honest, i can't remember right away, but i'll have to refresh my memory, well, including if we're talking in

the context of the fact that the war we have a long not two years, but 10 years, then they were held in ukraine, if we speak in the context of a full-scale war, so that the country was directly involved in these mr. maksym, it’s not me, i understand that the issue is so difficult, so immediately, without warning to put it, it would not be very convenient on my part, in fact, but maybe in modern history in recent decades, when... the country was at least partially at war, or maybe there were conflicts on its territory, we understand that we don't have a conflict, we have a full-scale war, but maybe some such examples and then in what way, what mechanisms were used so that the detection took place and how successful this process was then, maybe we will try to remember it with you, if we take the most modern segment

of history, if we take countries in particular. of the democratic plan, where prose stories took place, transparent elections, where different candidates, different political parties were represented there, and for this process to take place as transparently as possible, i personally cannot recall such cases, maybe i assumed something, but well, even if we take into account the fact that developed democracies in the last couple of decades, well, were not particularly involved in any military conflicts. if we speak in the context of the fact that these military conflicts did not take place on their territory, then we especially cannot recall any such case that we could to apply in relation to ourselves, ugh , of course, thank you, and we also probably have one subtopic regarding appeals, regarding the word theses, which are increasingly heard from the west, in particular

regarding the future. the victory of ukraine and some even call the next year, in general these forecasts, they differ so much that some say that the victory can be even before the elections in the russian federation, they say that putin will announce the end of hostilities, there as a victory, he will sell his audience there some , let's say the situation at the moment, someone another says that this war will last forever as long as the russian federation exists, so we will fight, someone calls it next year, the economy magazine calls it 5 years in its forecast, and in general, why are they so different, let’s say, the forecasts are absolutely , which have such a difference , what are these analysts presumably relying on, why these theses about some kind of victory soon became more real there, we understand that the victory depends on the supply of weapons, and on funding from there, on whether russia will mobilize, however, if you also noticed this one dynamics, what do you associate, well, we live

now in a period of stable unpredictability. therefore, these forecasts can differ to a large extent, if we are talking about what might happen in 2024, then probably many will not like my opinion, mr. maksym, then, if we do not rely on international experience, then we can hear your expert opinion about is it worth holding such elections in ukraine when our country is in an active phase of war? my opinion, it seems to me that this is as inappropriate as possible, my, my subjective position it's just that, maybe, given that i'm a political scientist, i'd be an interested party for the election to happen, but that's not the case at all, because there are so many factors that just don't have solutions, as my

colleague has already said, it is impossible to ensure the right to vote for our military who are on the front lines, and now there are more than 1.5 million citizens in the armed forces, if i am not mistaken, and it is impossible, also ... to guarantee the right for the same military to run for these elections, because they are citizens who have such a right to vote, and who else should have such an opportunity, and we cannot provide it, because the war is going on, we cannot provide it, in principle, for any, for any civilians who are even far from direct contact lines of security because the russian federation can use missiles. can use drones, can carry out all kinds of terrorist attacks there, we should also not forget the fact that the russian federation can also use informational and psychological special operations in order to manipulate

the preferences of the electorate and try to push some of their quasi-candidates at least to the parliament, well, one of these is also quite obvious facts that we can observe... now in the countries neighboring us, in the united states of america. an election campaign is always a period of a certain division in society, because it is a confrontation of political forces, a confrontation of ideas, where candidates always try to contrast themselves in a good light with their opponents, and opponents, on the contrary, in a negative light light to present. we don't need this discord right now, we don't need this division of society right now... ben, so if we weigh all the pros and cons, then for me, well , the answer is absolutely obvious, while it lasts, at least this hot phase of this full-scale invasion , elections cannot be held in any case.

thank you, mr. maksym, maksym was late, an international expert was with us, joined our conversation, our broadcast, we are extremely grateful to you, and we have one more subtopic, probably, friends, you also noticed how much there have been predictions that the war may end already... well, on the contrary, some say that the war with russia will continue as long as the kremlin exists, so about this dynamic, why were there so many statements not only from journalists, there analysts , experts, but also from politicians, even , let's talk about it with oleg lisny, a political scientist who joined us on the air, congratulations, mr. oleg, congratulations, so the economist published another forecast, he says the war will last for five years, because while neither of the parties, neither russia nor ukraine, is ready to go for some compromises, but for... not even about this forecast, but about how many of them appeared, in your opinion, why do you allow yourself to make such unprecedented forecasts, not only journalists there and experts, yes, even western politicians, well because by and large no one knows

when it will end, who could stop it is putin, and we need to work with him in the future, not with ukraine in the sense of persuading us to do something, influencing us with information somewhere, no, it's not an option because we didn't start the war. we got ourselves into this situation and by and large no one here knows when it will end. for two or three weeks it simply became a meme and unrealistic, a sign, let's say, a symbol of unrealistic. western politicians, western experts also play this game, although in reality you need to understand the reason. the reason is the russian federation, and as long as the west is not itself. will not realize what needs to be done, this war will be unpredictable, because putin himself, by and large, prepares for a long war, then comes out and says that he needs elections, but we must understand putin's motivation, he

just wants to destroy us as a state, as a nation, to move on, so i say again that the most important thing is for the west to understand who can stop this war, it is clear that ukraine would... this and yes, but the main cause of the war is putin, so we all need to unite and find ways to stop him, if he doesn't want to, he won't stop in a good way, so we have to do it in a bad way, but if you look at it, i understand what are you talking about, mr. olezh, we are just a little limited in time, here the question immediately arises, how much well, if we consider as options that this war could last for years, to what extent are our partners, well, current ones, how far are... allies for the formation state, how far is the united states ready to support ukraine both militarily and financially, well, by and large account , still heavily subsidizing the ukrainian budget and doing so for years. we see that

there are issues with readiness, we see that there is a transfer of responsibility from one state to another, well, conditionally, the united states says, well, it's a war in europe, let's do something. a positive sign is that, for example, germany. has increased support tremendously, that is, it is taking responsibility, for example, it is also a good signal for ukraine that the air defense coalition has been created, in which france and germany are the main ones. therefore, we can assume that when the electoral turbulence stops and will not be catastrophic for us in this or that country, then this support will be long-lasting. mr. oleg, such unexpected events this year or next year, such as the death of the dictator putin, or something similar, and massive, can stop this war? you know, i wish this was a moment of truth. but i'm not professor silovye, who

has been keeping putin in the fridge for a very long time, not a month, i wouldn't keep him, because i would immediately bury him, but the question is not putin's, the question is collective, russia is not alone the tsar is bad, he wants war, the russian people are profound, he is, after all , the collective putin, and therefore i believe that someone younger will immediately take his place. maybe more aggressive and will continue war, huh, that is, you can predict that i just heard a thesis, whoever comes to power in russia now there, yes after putin, it will still be better than what we have now, you do not agree with it , you think it could be even worse, it could be worse what 's going on around him right now, and who could come, they, they 're more of a hawk than you. and they, they are a little younger, yes, and this is very bad,

it cannot be assumed that everything will be solved with the death of putin, with the death of putin something can start in russia, but no russian politician at the current stage, he won’t say , i’m taking for now that i’m ending the war and returning everything to the way it was before, no, there is no such request in society yet, uh, i mean russian , mr. olezh, and here’s what... will begin , as you say, will it start from the bottom or will it start from the top? no , nothing starts from the bottom in russia, ugh, this will start, you know, as they say, there are several towers, and i call it a big three-liter jar of spiders, this is where it will begin, they will start tearing each other, ugh, as comrade yeltsin said, take how many independence, as much as they can bear, and they will take power, as much as necessary, as much as they can bear, i think they can. to play regional politicians not of ethnic

origin, yes, but in rich regions politicians, even those of putin's political gender, can also begin to tear russia to pieces. we understand that this forecast, that this process can be stimulated in some way, but today we, neither we nor our partners , have been able to find this way, well , that is, by constantly increasing the sanctions, we saw it's not... the hundreds of thousands of russians killed again did not lead to anything, that is, is there any lever at all, let's say, well , some kind of key in order to start , presumably, push this process of internal confrontation, which can eventually lead to the fact that these spiders themselves, as you say, will eat the current dictator. uh , i think that everything that you listed can

do the following, can weaken the center, uh , in russia, putin has built his power in such a way that everything rests conditionally, well, he is the top, and the central power is the core of power in russia in general, and as soon as the center begins to collapse, or demonstrates, god forbid, weakness, then we will see everything, and here too all these levers that you just mentioned, sanctions, actions from... some economic troubles, some dissatisfaction , minimum, maximum in the russian federation, it can result in what i call a black swan, and as far as i'm concerned, the black swan should 100% appear already, because we didn't solve this situation in any other way, ugh, thank you, mr. olezh, oleg lisny, a political scientist joined our broadcast, thank you mr. olezh, and in fact, friends, to summarize all our conversations about the next year, about the probability of the end of the war, in some time. inside russia, there is only one conclusion:

no one, except us, and specifically the defense forces, in the first place, will be able to start the process that will lead to peace, no one is better than them, so we would like to thank everyone who joins for the opportunity to host this broadcast now to the defense forces, and friends, we remind you that it is worth supporting not only in words, but also in deeds, exactly how, i'm sure you yourself know, let's now move on to another topic, since from january we will have the second stage, reforms in ukraine, let's talk about it. so, 10 thousand one hand. from january 1, 2024, the limit for the sale of land will increase 100 times. from 100 hectares to and buy shares in addition to natural persons, now also legal entities will be able to postpone the effect of this norm of the law on the land market until the end of the war, the public union of the all-ukrainian agrarian council is asking the president. on the website of the head of state, she published a petition that received the necessary 25,000 votes for consideration. the author of the appeal believes that

medium and small farmers currently do not have funds for the purchase of land and cannot attract loans, so there is a great risk that the land during the war. will be bought for nothing by oligarchs and corrupt officials. let me remind you that the land market in ukraine started working on july 1, 2021, until the end of the same year, natural persons had the right to sell and buy land with a limit of 100 hectares, but from the following 24th, the right to purchase shares is extended, to what extent can lead to, what opportunities open up and whether there are any risks with roman neytor, we talk about it as an analyst of the center for food research land use of the kyiv school of economics. congratulations, congratulations. well, let's begin with some interim summaries of the first stage, what is happening now with the land market, which i remember simply because there were so many conversations, warnings, in particular from some representatives of the political community, there were worries, what does it mean now there someone will come, buy everything, in the end the first stage is completed, what will be

the result? well i think that with the opening of that stage we will see the same situation, i think that we will not see the implementation of any of those... spaces, about which the activists from the war declare, if the results of the first stage are the results of the war, the land market was quite significantly influenced by the war, after the start of the full -scale invasion, the volume of the land market decreased, while before the full-scale invasion, about 10 thousand sales transactions per month , now it is about 7 thousand, and we see this drop by about 30%. while this is a fall. it is not uniform across regions, in the occupied territories, by law you cannot occupy and sell land, in the territories, that near hostilities, zaporizhzhia region, kherson region, kharkiv region, kharkiv region, to a lesser extent, but donetsk region, luhansk region,

there are practically no transactions there, the land market has frozen, while in the west of ukraine the pace of market development prevails over those in the 21st century year if we extrapolate the pace of market development and full-scale invasion to the current situation, we can see that more than 100,000 purchase and sale agreements have not been concluded, this is almost 30,000 hectares of land, and the cost is about 11.5 billion uah, this is a loss the market from a full-scale invasion, uh , if we talk now about how the war affected the... land market, maybe somewhere it completely stopped selling, buying, of course, somewhere it became more expensive, somewhere it became cheaper, how exactly did the war affect this sphere, well, if we talk about, as i said, they have decreased, if we talk about the cost of land, now

the average cost is about 39 hryvnias, before the full-scale invasion the average cost was about 32, and we see an increase of 22%, but it is not inflation, which is last year would have been 26%, and at the same time this year we see continued price growth, if in the third quarter of 2023 prices. about 10.4% higher than the average walls in the first quarter of this year, that is , the growth rate of walls on land this year, they are even ahead of the rate of inflation, but if we talk about the dollar value, then in dollar terms the value of a hectare still decreased, it was about $1,200 per hectare before

the full-scale invasion, now it's down to about $1,070 per hectare a. in the last month, mr. roman, if we talk about whether it is worth investing in land now, then yes or no , if so, where exactly, everything will remain, it all depends on what the situation is in each specific land market, because the value of land quite strongly depends on the number of farmers working in the region. if we are talking about the conditional poltava region and about some area where quite a lot of farmers work, then the demand for such land is quite high, it is a liquid asset, and it is sold during the day, how many. at this, if we are talking about polissia, sales are not so active there, and there are on

average fewer farmers working in the region, i.e. is it worth investing, we see an increase in prices, it is ahead of inflation in 2023, we expect a further increase in prices from the opening of the land market for legal entities, and therefore it can be said that it is an attractive asset, while there are certain caveats, this is due to... the fact that now the situation is not easy for agrarians, and land, as an asset, is also for agrarians , she is tied for the success or failure of farmers in their work, and accordingly now, when the purchase prices for products are quite low, and some enterprises are on the verge of closure, and this is not an attractive background for a significant increase in land prices. ugh, actually we understand that now the second stage is starting, yes, it is proposed to increase the limits on the amount of land, however, we are already hearing theses that they say, let's

postpone such decisions, they say, the war may affect it, and there may be certain some, some schemes, as far as i am concerned i understand what the attackers can use there, let's say how justified these risks are, that is, is it really possible now is not the time, and what risks might be, maybe you can now turn to people who will think, think about selling land so? and what should they pay attention to in order not to be deceived? it is worth waiting a little with the sale of land, because one way or another , the opening of the market for legal entities will increase the demand for land and this will lead to an increase in the price, if we talk about warnings due to the opening of the market land, due to the raising of limits, they have no basis. what small and medium-sized producers are afraid of is that they will have them... excluded from this market and without them all the land will be bought up and so on, in fact , a significant land purchase has not taken place and will not

take place, first of all, due to the fact that large and medium-sized producers also have problems with liquidity, they do not have a large amount of resources to buy land, and it was not even in the successful years when in in 2021, for example, dew, and therefore their concern that the entire land bank... will be washed away, they are groundless, in the first, in the first two years, only 1% of the land was in circulation, that is, we do not expect that this the percentage will change a lot, and because the norm for developed countries is about 1% of land in circulation per year, i think that we will reach such volumes, and small farmers will not face the fact that all their land will be bought up, heard well, the main thing is that every one of our viewers, who have... land, should understand that there is no need to rush yet. thank you for your analysis, roman neiter, analyst of the center for food and land use research of the kyiv school of economics.

see you in the next broadcasts. kateryna derkach and oleksiy homan were with you this hour. thank you for trusting us. see you chevrons approaching victory. i am a uav operator, i save lives and teach others. i destroy enemy shaheds during airstrikes . i am a driver. i am an infantryman. our tasks

are different. the goal is one. choose your specialty and fill out the questionnaire on the national website guards we will win together. finding yourself in new circumstances is a challenge that thousands of defenders are overcoming. to help them in this process, the state created a grant program. for veterans and their family members, which is implemented by the ministry of economy of ukraine. applying for a veteran's grant is easy and convenient through action. apply and receive up to uah 1 million to start or develop your own business. we will be there on christmas night. mentally, in the chat, in the family circle. from now on, with all of christendom, december 25. together

we celebrate christmas this is probably the principle of life, my inner ideology, i am on the path of a warrior and pass it with dignity, so i must be a samurai, a sapper on every combat task 100%, the first risks life, the second, during the execution of this task, saves life, 100%.

you don't need a lot of intelligence to take a life, you need to make an effort to save a life. emptiness, you have darkness, i have emptiness, it's very different from themes, it's very different from black, it's all

emptiness. vlad and i lived in horlivka, i had my own business, stood quite well, i once worked for his father's business, and then we already did business together, and it was very cool, because i remember the government, well, this one... i know everything from the inside, like it happened there, i understand that nothing good happened there, every day i saw more and more disappointment in his eyes from what was happening. it is very bad that friends and children died, for me it is generally

the most painful thing when children die. in the 14th year, i... smelled a little war, i was under mortar fire several times, once i was in the hail damage zone and i had some problems to leave, i left on august 15 , 2014 walked 7 km with my wife, my wife was pregnant at the time, one child, and the suitcase was in a baby carriage and the child was sitting on top. i clearly remember how everything went down in my father's house, because some business that my father was engaged in went down, and they lost all the living space they had. in order not to see all this and to ensure a normal future and education for our son, we had to leave to

the city of sloviansk, where vlad graduated from school. it was much... better than it was in horlivka, no matter how hard it was, it was much better, at least i wasn't afraid that my son would go to school and not come back, that was the most important criterion for me , everything was completely destroyed, what was at home there, and home ceased to be home, slavyansk became home, well, somehow... it gradually came to the point that i went into humanitarian demining. here was such a chance to benefit society. went with a close friend with nikita. we are on the same course of study together got into they fully learned, passed the course well, both theory and practice, and began performing duties near bakhmut. it was