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dear friends, we are back on the air, and now oleg penzyn, economist, will be in touch with us and a member of the economic discussion club, is already on our screens, we welcome you, mr. olezh, and we will talk about the economy, ukrainian and russian. listen, i would like to start, mr. olezh, if you allow me, still from russia, again, to continue the topic, in particular efficiency. this russian, and we recently saw those diagrams, they recently showed them precisely that most of the absolutely russian components, for example, the missiles that it continues to fire at us, or the same ones, for example, drones, they are american origin in general, and this means that not only does the system of this embargo and sanctions not work to the end, but it is not even possible to ... stop this influx

of high-tech components that allow the russians to quite successfully manufacture new weapons up to 100 tanks, for example, per year, per month, more precisely , well, in a word, this is a big month, per month, per month yes, that is, it is a huge problem, in your opinion, will it be possible to change something in this regard, look, actually... there is such a small negative point that the european and world bureaucracy, it is very slow in terms of building certain algorithms , actions in certain situations, and uh, well, just imagine that just now, just now, yes, uh, great britain has formed a relevant agency that will , in accordance with british law to track. enforcement of sanctions

restrictions and in the case of the need to open criminal cases against violators, only now, only they announced the creation of the agency, only starting last month , the united states of america began criminal prosecute persons who circumvent sanctions restrictions within the limits of american legislation, only at 12... in the package of sanctions that was agreed by the europeans yesterday, criminal liability is introduced for violation of sanctions restrictions, so sorry, it took more than a year and a half of war for let's go back to those things, so let's imagine how complex this bureaucratic machine is that is slowly unfolding, but the main players, let's say, the sanctions restrictions that i mentioned, the united kingdom, the united

the united states and europe have now actively begun to introduce criminal liability and have opened the possibility to their law enforcement agencies. in the case of detection of sanctions violations, open criminal liability against individuals who actually caused such things, that is , it is an extremely important thing, which, well, this mechanism, look, you and i understand, yes, that when there are its limitations, but there is no responsibility for them eh, well at least this responsibility is not so strict eh for them, let's say bypass, then definitely... well, what they are there, they are not there, so now the situation is fundamentally changing, and i have great hope that this flow of sanctioned goods, which through third countries, which are entering the russian federation due to lost transit, will now decrease by an order of magnitude. here i also

wanted to ask about emergency aid, it actually looks like today a huge amount of 60 billion dollars is blocked in the united states to help ukraine, and 50 billion euros is also a huge amount, it is actually blocked now in the european union, is it a lot of money, or will it be possible to unlock them in the near future in your opinion, i understand that these are more political questions, however critical they are, and what will happen to the ukrainian economy if they do not arrive, for example, in the next few months. listen, i'm telling you a little bit of betrayal now, a little bit, well, objectively. next year, we need 42-43 billion dollars in the form of macro-financial assistance so that you and i can reconcile our budget, and if we take into account that all the money we are talking about is money for

fulfilling the social obligations of the state, well, then their non-observance will have critical consequences, in what sense, when will there be an alternative for the authorities? what to finance, war or pensions, i give you a 100% guarantee that pensions will be financed, so objectively, the less money they give us, the less money we will be able to send to the war, and if you take into account that the russian federation next year provided in her budget 120 billion dollars for the war, ugh, so that we with... we had no doubt that she would spend it, ugh, and ukraine at best 1.7 trillion, that a little more than 43 billion, that is , count, three times less, and that money is problematic from the point of view of obtaining macro-financing from our partners, it is

an extremely big problem. at the moment, you and i do not have a confirmed 29 billion dollars, of the 42 that we need for... economic financing, actually the money that we are talking about with you now, it is approximately, well there plus or minus 16- 17 from the european union, although i think that there will not be exactly, there will be a maximum of 10, and 11 billion of macro-financial assistance from the united states of the united states of america, because the 60 billion us dollars that we are talking about is an amount that includes... military and technical cooperation, uh, that is, in that amount, there is somewhere around 11 billion of macro-financial financing, macroeconomic financing , somewhere around 32-33 billion - this is money that

will eventually go to american enterprises that produce weapons that replace in american warehouses those provided to ukraine, that is, they are quite sophisticated there. scheme, what is produced in america, it does not go to us, it goes to warehouses of the american army to replace what they send to ukraine, and there are also remaining funds that ukraine needs for other needs, that is, in reality, when you and i draw the picture i am talking about now, unfortunately, for now well, well, maybe i don't know, maybe the senate before the end of this year. year before the christmas holidays , the house of representatives will make a decision, it has already gone on vacation, they left yesterday and will return in three weeks, uh, what happened yesterday, the european union voted to start

ukraine's negotiations for joining the european union, that's great, but we can, as it was said, 70 more times... run into mr. orban's veto in this process. ugh. at the same time, 50 billion euros, huh. by the 27th year , 13-14 of them are blocked for... the next year, although charles michel promised other methods, other directions, but all this is up for discussion, all this is up for discussion, it will not be for today so immediately, so let's hope that olev scholz will come up with 70 other ways to neutralize orbán, just kidding, of course, the question we have there are 5 minutes left, i also wanted to speak, everyone is now discussing such a scandal that arose after the head of european solidarity in the kyiv city council, prokopiv, said that kyiv should not make a war budget, this is

a matter for the state budget of ukraine, and on he was attacked here very much , i am watching this now, but in what i think he is right to a certain extent, all the cities of ukraine have military budgets in one way or another, all the cities of ukraine send money, and kyiv sent the most, of course of all . it of course, not the largest percentage , it seems that the city of khmelnytskyi sent the largest percentage from the regional centers, well, this is the truth of the data from the end of the summer, but at the end of the summer , as far as i remember those numbers, all the cities collectively gave 10 billion rubles to the army from their budget, direct allocations, 10 billion, of which a third of the total amount would be provided by just three cities, again kyiv, lviv and dnipro, 10 billion seems to be quite a large sum, on the other hand, only compensation, as the prime minister told us

shmygal, payment for gas for the population amount to uah 400 billion. 40 times more than the cities take from their budgets there, yes , that is, this is only one item of these conditional pensions, which are more important than the war for our government, which, what you mentioned before, and... that is i just remember that moment here, well, or, for example , there, i don’t know, the expenses for the president’s office have not decreased, together with the state administration, we have 3 billion, almost 2 billion for single news, for example, the marathon, which are all there criticized, it is already together, for example, 5 billions, well, i'm talking about the fact that i understand that saving and giving to the front is extremely important, but on the other hand, there are some directions that are important. priorities for the city, they also need to make some of their current expenses, well, that is, i

am trying to formulate now, it is difficult for me, but look, in our country, for example, we are collecting money now, it is correct, i just ordered 100 uah for our collection, on our own collection, which we initiated on the tv channel, but i also understand that in this way we replace the state to a certain extent, you understand what i mean i wonder if we really have enough money in the budget. and on the other hand, where are the limits of this military, because in this story, how to make it economically more profitable there, i don’t know, to keep a cow, negotiate less, milk more, with the economy, it doesn’t work like that either, there are some industries that where it is possible to cut back and make sequesters, and there are places where, on the contrary, money should even be poured in and developed, do you feel that there is this balance now in the state, i heard what you asked, look, i will tell you that it is extremely unpopular. and that's not it less, i will tell her now,

you and i are all talking about the transfer of the economy to military lines, we are all talking about the fact that russia has transferred, ukraine has not, and this does not give the opportunity to produce weapons in sufficient quantities and so on. look, there are things that are extremely unpopular, but which are the first signs of the economy going on a war footing. this is the centralization of all financial flows. in one place in the state budget, that is , the process of decentralization stops, all funds are accumulated in the central budget, and local budgets live at the expense of reverse subsidies, equalization subsidies, everything. a popular solution is horror. we will now hear huge cries from our local politicians that this is impossible, but if we are talking about military rails. that's right, the second point related to the military rails is the freezing

of social standards, that is, no raising of the minimum wage twice for the next year, no indexation of pensions, no increase in the living wage, that is, the military rails provide for the freezing of social standards, we... ready for this, i don't know, questions, and i to you i can name at least a dozen other signs that characterize translation. economy on military tracks, we are ready with you for this , we are doing it, we, let's remember how much hate and problems there were when, when approving the budget for the 24th year, the authorities made a decision to consolidate parts of personal income tax of persons paid

to military employees in the central budget, this is uah 97 billion for the next year. this is not even all of the personal income tax, it is not all of the income, it is just a small part, huh, that is, we or you, excuse me, handsome, or wise, even in that joke, either remove the cross or put on panties, well, excuse me, we are either at war, or we live as in peacetime, but let the state take over the central budget there, all the expenses that are needed for the war, well... then we have to decide what is happening, and if you look at what is happening today in the russian federation, if you look at how much they spend, 30% of the budget they throw into the war, listen, this is despite the fact that , well, in reality, in 22-23 years , the russian federation received 650

billion dollars and let's remember how much ukraine received from macro-financial assistance. well, much less, many times less, so i don’t have an answer to your question, it should be a social agreement, it should be a consolidation of society, it should be a unified position from the point of view of the state , that is, society should say, we are ready for such, well problems for ourselves, and then it will be, if it doesn't happen, then excuse me for what's happening now, that's another thing... but we're talking about the betrayal of our europeans, well, the fact that they didn't give us 50, well wait, but we consolidated all the revenues of the local budgets into the central budget, no, there is such a russian word as pampered, but i don’t know the ukrainian one, i know the corresponding galician word to unfreeze, and there to unfreeze, and that’s when, when we were given a lot of money,

and we could pretend that there is no war for, for example, pensioners, war. there aren't many young people there, for tax payers there or for those who can heat the kitchen with a gas stove, just whatever, gas is not that expensive, and you see, i just understand that we need, if we start this discussion, we need to start with the maximum, with the maximum frankness finally, that is, with the maximum of our own savings, to be honest, that is, with our own savings. that is, it is necessary to start again, conditionally speaking, from the same place, i don't know, where, where sequestration can be easily done, where it is not needed. if you say that today we do not need to repair the roads on the streets, then i do not understand why we need to keep all the dachas of president zelenskyi in perfect condition, for example, if it was about that, that is, we need to start, i am with you,

i agree with you 100%, this is the first, and the second, if we say that we are ready to transfer everything to one state budget, everyone. our money and we will manage it from there, then i do not want to see there, for example, i personally, as a taxpayer of this country, i do not want to see people who do not have any official authority, but in reality manage this budget, moreover , i want to see then a government where all the political forces will be, so that it is a government of such trust that no one i couldn't say that we are in the opposition, someone is stealing our money, i apologize, in this budget, look, i agree with you that when the country goes to war, a government of national salvation should be created, well , let's be completely frank, the truth is, the situation with the parliament should be a little different , because when war is declared, if we take the constitution with you, the parliament must lay down its powers, well, there are many things in

the constitution of ukraine, if you read it carefully, you understand that we have we have not had a war yet and martial law, but war has not been declared in the country. well, that is, we have many things that we must, well, be aware of that, and there are a lot of things at the moment, you are absolutely right, if on the one hand there is consolidation, then on the other hand there must be due responsibility, and the responsibility must be taken on all political forces themselves, whether they are formally in the opposition or formally in power, it does not matter, they should take responsibility through what, through the coalition? the government , after all, we have a parliamentary-presidential republic, true, that is, there should be a government, not from the office of the president, orders should be given where and what to do, but should take over from'. the government of people's salvation, well, again, this is, i don't know, some kind of ideal scheme, how it should be and so on, but when we

talk about it with you, we must understand that one is impossible without the other, and if this if not, then you and i really hear from the representatives of the opposition forces in the kyiv city council that the kyiv budget does not need to go on military lines. well, it's quite expected, and what do we want, so what is this vision, sorry, i'm not a politician, i'm talking to you as an economist, one more question remains for us, lesya, andriy, andriy, yes, i also wanted to ask about our plans for mobilization, if i'm right, i tried yesterday review a possible version of the draft law , which will be considered as soon as possible, at least it has already been published, it specifically mentions that such a concept as reservation at enterprises and so on will definitely be abolished, on the other hand, we have many complaints, i don’t know, kasyanov wrote about it, military personnel and a volunteer known for the fact that

, for example, all the best drone manufacturers from small enterprises were taken away and mobilized, the question is that here too, well, the economy must function, and it must not be paralyzed, it’s just that i now understand , very briefly, look, it's just that those who, for example, do not work legally at that time, find themselves in a winning situation. or do not work at all, look, look, so i, as an economist, will tell you the following, in a normal economy, which translates into military rails, the mobilization potential is 10% of the total working-age population, we have a working-age population today somewhere after all departures and so on at the level of 14 million people, that is, at the moment ukraine's mobilization potential is -400, that's all. the second point that must be clearly understood is that the 1.7 trillion that are in the budget in the form of taxes and fees for the next year, they must be

collected, they must be paid by someone, when i hear from our politicians, from our military well done, they are heroes, but they are in the economy probably know a little less than professional economists, everyone will fight the phrase, so i have a question, huh? what will you fight for dear? i will remind you of the very famous saying of the honorable napoleon, who said that war is money, money and money again, well, that is, if there is no money, if there is no zak with which to buy ammunition, if there is nothing with which to buy weapons, then you are going to attack the enemy with pitchforks, but you are not going to go with pitchforks, right? therefore , i have a question, when you and i are talking about a unified state policy on war, then it should the situation with the labor armies must be absolutely clearly defined, i apologize, with forced

conscription, the situation with the enterprises extremely important for defense security and the armor for them must be clearly defined , well, that is where you and i started talking about consolidation, about transferring the economy to war reiki, i told you that there are still many points that must be considered, so what i am saying now are the next steps, well, there cannot be a situation, for example, that a person who is the moment is extremely important from the point of view of the security of the defense at the enterprise, she is taken out of the minibus and forcibly mobilized through the vlk, and i understand that the guys there, what vlks are there, there is a plan, a plan, but wait, but with... pity, that they inflict on the security of defense at the moment is much greater, and someone should be responsible for it, someone should look after it, we have at least heard of at least one

actual case of bringing to justice an employee of the vlk, an employee of the tsc, who, well sorry, violated the current legislation of ukraine, no one i didn't cancel it, nobody canceled the constitution, mr. olezh, i think that we will somehow call you and continue this conversation, now we have to finish it. thank you for the conversation, oleg pendzen, economist, member of the economic discussion club was with us, we are going on a break now, and then we will come back and continue our marathon, so please stay with espresso. attention, an incredible novelty from rozpak, super warm and very comfortable alaska style boots. perfect fit, water-repellent material and a feeling of warmth even in 30-degree frost. boots alaska stayle have a universal design and practical black color, so they will suit both men and women. sizes are from 36 to 46, so buy two pairs at once, for you and

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