could and can affect the situation, because 90% of all military budget funds that are sent to ukraine remain in the united states, that is, they work for the us economy, they create jobs, they go to technological rearmament, for example, within of this rearmament , atakams missiles, those currently in service, are replaced by new pirsm missiles, which have a longer range. accuracy is more, and in principle, this was facilitated by the program, including the ukrainian one, so i think that all these arguments, well which did not lead to a visit at that time, i do not want to associate them with approaches specifically in the military sphere, rather it would be more desirable for the administration to invite the president of ukraine for lobbying, pushing the aid package, 61.4 billion. , that

this visit took place, i knew and it was known in washington, and everyone said openly that the visit of volodymyr zelenskyi will not affect anything in this regard from the point of view of the congress, because everything is already clear to everyone in the congress, there is good news , there is bad news, bad news known to all in america has an election, and it's not just a presidential election, it's a congressional election, i mean the house. representatives fully and 1/3 of the senate, and you look at the rhetoric, the traditional republicans, they switched to the rhetoric of just a fringe group that was fringe, and now it's becoming mainstream, it 's a small group, as they said, maga, about the trumpists or the freedom caucus , no, now this is the main narrative of the republicans before the elections, unfortunately, because in this narrative, in addition to the delay in helping ukraine, let's

be honest, there is a moment of not providing help ukraine, and unfortunately, the situation developed exactly in this way, so the main task of the president of ukraine was to influence the white house, president biden, so that, uh, thank you for the help that is available and agree on a plan for the next year, and this plan should be drawn up of three things: one, and i'm sure it was discussed, although i don't have insider information from their meeting. between the presidents, but from what was publicly heard at the press conference and actually from their own experience , they discussed the vision of whether there will be success next year in the military plan, in the plan war, this is the first, it depended on the decision of joseph biden, the second, what needs to be done with the supply of weapons for this success, and it is clear that this success requires a completely different approach, it requires 300 atakams missiles at least, it requires several dozen aircraft at once. platforms, the permission, well, the permission or

not the objection of the us, strikes on the airfields from which we are being struck, this is also russian territory, this is rostov, this is the part closer to us, this is the approval of this, otherwise nothing will happen, that is, this a change is needed philosophy, joint strategy, tactics of joint resistance to russian aggression, let's say, deoccupation of ukrainian territories. and the third is the institutional capacity of ukraine, to what extent the ukrainian state and ukrainian society can withstand the issues of mobilization for war, the ability of the social sphere to work in the regime, that regime , that is, the mood of the population and the mood, that is the result, first i will tell you, pres. - conference despite president biden's phrase, it was said in my opinion. well, for the first time in my memory, that we

we will work for the victory of ukraine , not as much as necessary, for the victory of ukraine, the phrase was good, there were other phrases, well, nato was very, in my opinion, an unsuccessful reaction, a successful reaction of president zelensky, who forwarded this question to president biden, and according to the answer president biden, we understood that the issue of the political, political issue of joining ukraine or for... at the washington summit next year is currently not being considered by the white house administration, but to ask the question that only after the war, when ukraine will defend itself, is you know, because it's poor people's talk , after all , we are the poor people in the current situation, so because we understand what our budget tells us, that is, if there is no money from the european union and the united states, then there will be, yes so to speak, it's not about money , i want to finish and... explain

, it's about much more, we 've been looking at money in recent months, it's not about money, it's about the position of the usa now, will it be the same as it was before , is it a change. it is cardinal, so according to body language, what was at the press conference, i really did not like the mood of joseph byton, what caused it, i can judge from previous personal meetings with him, from what i saw before, that his mood was, well, not optimistic, why so happened, i can't say, so here is my conclusion, two scenarios now, there are no different options, there are two scenarios, the first scenario, it is not very optimistic for us. this is what, now accusing the republicans of not providing aid to ukraine, the democrats and joseph biden they will be hanged, well, they will be hung in the political plan , they will be blamed for the fact that ukraine did not get everything it needed, and in this

way they will show that , unfortunately, in such conditions, they are not able to achieve what could be a victory, then , what joseph biden said , this is the first option, and it's on... unfortunately, i 'm not writing it off, it's still there, well, it 's not a very good scenario, what does that mean, it means that somewhere for a few months, well by summer, maybe next year, ukraine will have the means to conduct further intensives hostilities, and then there will be no more such means of such an intensity of war, in conditions where putin and russia, on the contrary, now see it and want to increase the intensity, and the second scenario is... also now i would still hope for it, it is that , that the white house has an understanding of how they can push the financing package to ukraine, and thus, after hearing convincing arguments from the president of ukraine, go to the correction of the strategy, that is, what i

said, after all, next year, maybe not before summer, maybe later, but to force putin to the negotiations, that's all. two scenarios, everything else is additional elements, so some factors that will appear in the next days will show where, where this pendulum will swing, and unfortunately, the decision i see has not been made yet, and that's a good thing, because it can be as positive as possible and bad that in these conditions there is still no final vision, well , who is about what, and i am about money in this case and, moreover, not only about american money, about european money, and in general about the so-called big game, and maybe... unspoken, unadvertised coordination in brussels, berlin and washington, this is what it is about in particular, that is, we received an extremely powerful geopolitical signal from the european union, the start of negotiations will be discussed and so on, and we received a minus, in particular, when we

are talking about the macro-finance, draw up the budget and endure the next year without a clear we cannot get help from the european union, and here i wanted to ask you, this is an individual game. she was now, what we saw was all his, you know, the grasshoppers he was throwing out, was he doing exactly what he was allowed to do, yes, well, maybe orbán is now playing the role of a part of the republican trumpists, yes, who in a certain way, so to speak, do what they are allowed to do. first of all, this is a very good decision and a timely political decision, and i congratulate, first of all, the europeans for finding the strength to look at the strategies. it is not often that europe looks strategically, now they have played the right way and made a political decision to start negotiations with ukraine, this is first of all a signal to the kremlin and putin, you remember that he blackmailed both ukraine and the eu until the 14th year of european integration, and it became the cause of euromaidan, the stoppage of european integration,

that is, it is a good political signal. second, this is a clear reform plan for ukraine, you can actually forget about all government strategies and innovations. for 7 years, the development of the economy for 10 years, everything will now develop in the negotiated process with the eu, and this is independent of the ukrainian authorities, this will be a process that the ukrainian people will not allow to be reversed, and each subsequent ukrainian president will adjust the reform program under these requirements, that is, it is a good thing, the third, that it is very it's important, they found a way to bypass the blocking by an individual country, well orban specifically, now you're asking how many... different points, yes, i think moscow had such a desire, and i think orban, he actually, from- for the fact that he was given what he demanded, well, he is, you know,

a trader from geopolitics, he squeezed 10 billion from the european union, and i will tell you this, the first such tranche of 10 billion is blocked for now, and there is generally a program of three ... hungary receives more from brussels by 4.5 billion every year, and he threw putin, actually in in this situation, he threw putin, this is a victory. and we must thank german chancellor scholz and president macron, first of all, for these two letters, and this is a good sign, which means that germany and france see ukrainian development further and see that ukraine will be part of the european space, so i most likely respond negatively to this story, because orbán ruined it, what they wanted to play like that, block it completely in the states, block it in europe, the game is not over yet. because it was orban's political adviser who declared, also named orban, declared

that they will continue to block finances , this is what you say, that is, the game is like this, politically, well, okay, we could not do it here and we would have blocked the money, but then we will block everything that is finance, but here there is a solution, actually after the political decision of the eu, the financial solution can be found at the bilateral level, it's a little more difficult, but here's the ban until... longer, more difficult, yes, and it will affect the intensity of our, well, let's say, our defense capacity, because defense now, it seems to be at the front, yes, all of it more, but next year it will be a somewhat different war, it will no longer be only a physical front on land or in the black sea or in the air, it will also be the capacity of the country, institutions, society, that is to be measured by... this is the action of the confrontation between two systems , there will be a serious challenge in this, which you have not seen

in recent months, in principle so vividly, and therefore money matters, absolutely, and here a lot of efforts will be made now, to block both in the states and in europe, and wherever possible , and putin is very much counting on it, he is saying this directly now, he is counting on the fact that financial and weapons aid will decrease, and this will lead to the loss of ukraine's opportunities as much as possible, well , to restore the asymmetry, let's say, to overcome it with russia, because he threw in all the resources , in fact, i believe that the situation in russia is not much better than ours in this regard, and they threw all resources and opportunities for the 24th year, the truth is that they calculated somewhere until the month of november, before the elections in the usa, and... we, well, europe and the usa, still need to accept this challenge, a

europe, europe must show and is showing the example of the usa that it is necessary to continue the support. let's now try to analyze how we should act correctly and wisely so that we can. perhaps there are still some prospects for helping our friends, the democrats, to influence the trumpists, so that the money still goes and the right decision is made in our favor. the key story, how the americans see the formula for their success, is in the support of ukraine. it is unlikely that we will be interesting in the plan if we say that our situation is getting worse, complex, in fact, it is not such that you expect changes. we have already seen difficult situations when russia advanced actively, and then there were successful actions and not only that. on the front, and i think that the republicans are now pushing the white house

and joseph biden to where they did not want to go, and that means making the issue in ukraine or the issue of countering russia, the issue in their part of their election campaign, they are actually doing it, they had a choice, they could criticize the opponents, the democrats and joseph biden, for not helping enough ukraine, they chose another, unfortunately for us, they generally ... frankly, i see mike johnson leading to not giving aid to ukraine, not giving, and that they all started talking about migration policy again suddenly, in connection with exactly the aid to ukraine, this is a bad sign, a very bad sign, because you can explain 50 times that this is how it is done in america, that this is the approach of the congress , it is true, they, they trade issues, by the way, very wrong approach and very so strange for european...politicians in america, they consider it normal to trade in congress on various issues, including

us national security, this will lead america, lead it in a very bad direction, in my opinion, this has happened, especially in the last 10 years or so, this approach, so it seems to me that not everything is determined , if joseph biden accepts this challenge and makes ukrainian success an issue of his election campaign in part, because the main domestic issues, this is a good sign for us and... this is the pressure of the republicans and their complete, well, even opposition to aid to ukraine, i believe there is an opposition, until recently there was still a dilemma between the traditional'. met with zelenskyi told about the fact that lancey graham, who has done so much mccain's ally, look what he said: i don't want to sit in washington for another week, i'm going to my district, it's a disaster, i

just like these words from lancey graham could not expect, that is , they took a joint position, joseph biden's political rating, to lower him on the issue of migration, this is a political struggle in its purest form, but where the national interests of the united states are safe here, i do not see at all, the only explanation i have is that they have some cunning plan, and this plan is known in the white house, i don’t know it, that they will still squeeze a package of 61.4 billion for israel, ukraine, taiwan and the border, and that he can it will decrease somewhat, maybe by some amount, but it will be the main one for the whole year, that's the only thing... how can i explain now all such pro-ukrainian people, including lynsey graham, yes the republican, mitch mcconnell, and others. by the way, the senate is now trying to somehow correct the situation and extend it for a week, well, according to information now, there to continue his work and still make a decision, pushing the house

of representatives and the same mike johnson to change his approach, but mike johnson will not change his approach, he has behind him to... trump, who is behind donald trump us it is not known until the end, because his decision in principle, well, we can say, is supported by that part of the americans who advocate isolationism and the reduction of the external, up to the exit from nato, for example, so that is why such a signal is not very pleasant for me , i found in the adopted new military budget, the us military budget. i found a new clause 1250a about not allowing the president to make a single decision on withdrawing from nato, it is written exactly like that, there are no international organizations, everything is from nato, this is a signal, it is clear where donald trump is going to the white house, but hey this is contradictory from the point of view of the us constitution, you can

appeal to the supreme court, in my opinion, it is unlikely that this law alone can prohibit it. but it will be decided by the americans, at least the fuse of mikru and others did there, but i didn't find, well, i 'll say it now, for the time being, until the president of the united states signed le nda, i didn't find there what i've been following for a long time actually every day, the last two weeks, paragraph paragraph 1224 about continuation of the law. it never came into force, by the way, the law was signed , but they didn’t launch the model, and maybe they didn’t launch it for nothing, they didn’t launch it and why is it bad now that this item is not there, i still have to search almost 200 pages there, but for now i did not find this clause in this law, he

fell out yesterday, well, it fell out before signing before the vote... well, there is no exchange with the american ones in washington, maybe someone else knows more about it, but just now it is a very dangerous thing, why? because it could be an alternative option in case the congress doesn't give the money, the white house and joseph biden says, okay, you don't give me the money, i'm starting a lendlis, which i'll pass on may 9... year, well, we accepted on your initiative of the republicans, yes, there will be more in terms of technology, in terms of everything, but now i take this tool on the table, i have it, if you don't want it to give money, i use this tool, and if there is no tool, and if the democrats and the white house have now agreed to it, i

generally want to understand, first i will find out, maybe someone will help finally. will this clause appear after the signing by the president of the usa, if the clause on the continuation of the law of fertility does not appear there, this is a very bad signal, a very bad signal, it means, it means, and what does the white house refuse, in fact, from this type of program intensive supply of weapons to ukraine, because there is a high probability that the finances will be cut, it's a bad option , but you know, there's two sides, now the second option, which we don't know, maybe i'll say it again, joseph biden knows that he 's going to cut the finances, then all my arguments go away, then package to the final. 61.4 will be enough for military issues, well , there is somewhere less than half, but it will be enough approximately because the germans and

european countries also give us, it will be enough, and the financial budget of 11.7, plus japan, plus others is enough, that is, now concluding, if we do not see at the end of january, the beginning of february, how the result of all this... is a league, then i can tell you, it is predicted what choice the united states made, now today there is a struggle, and in this struggle, unfortunately, the arguments of the president of ukraine are already there, they are already useful only from the point of view, what are we going to do, yes, well, if everything goes well, then we know what to do, the key story, what and how and when we should do it already, to be safe. in case the republicans really manage to collapse the macro-finance aid for ukraine. in particular, it is about aid and military, yes? we place great hopes on

the european union, but in this situation can we be sure that the europeans will cover all our internal needs. well, it's no secret that the government of ukraine counted on these funds in planning for the 24th year. and officially, they see it as a disaster, the failure to see us funds, they even officially declared that without these funds we will lose the war, but i am categorically against such already pessimistic attitudes, pessimistic, a very wrong approach, immediately seesaw, first we go into a counteroffensive, in we are fine, no worry, bipartisan support in the us, when i said that two ... in place back, that may not be the case, the scenario is complicated, it is the most profitable, here it is implemented, why are they not listening 2.5 months ago, i do not understand why then the landing at the last moment, when

it could be done systematically, we had three months, it took three months, no, let's show inside ukraine, who made what efforts, who raised this depth, yes, everyone is doing pr on this , as a result of pr, soon it may happen that, god forbid, this is all region you have and then you will do pr, this is the emotional part, now the part is positive , so you have to sit down, and as always i did this in my work, several scenarios, and i do not exclude the negative, and what i do in case of a negative scenario, i have answers to what, what, how to plan now, when everyone in the government is still waiting, maybe something will come, some kind of manna from heaven, i don’t know, i would look, for example , at the options, i think they in the ministry of finance are looking at what can be reduced not in terms of salaries there and pensions, because it will hit a lot catastrophic in terms of motivation in ukraine, and

even more so, these funds are usually tied up, well, people who receive small salaries and pensions, they do not carry this money to the school, well, not in a bucket, to a store, or to pay or donate to the army, so, we have to think about what to do with... with local programs, which, in principle , the personal income tax is now being taken from local budgets, but nevertheless, when i see this discussion, let's be honest, kyiv has a budget of 77 billion, but literally or 74 there, well, such a figure is more than 70 hryvnias of the budget, from this budget, one hryvnia is allocated for e-purchase there is a need for the army, yes, that is, it is not the task of the local budget to finance the armed forces, no, but when there are statements and they have already been refuted in fact, that local budgets

should not carry out the war, but the central budget should do it, you know, people do not care, what kind of budget will be drawn, people understand, it goes again, it is not a question of victory, it is a question of defense and survival of ukraine, so in these conditions there is room to tighten a little. zky, well, for example, i saw the program, another ski complex is being built near bukovel, 560 million, now 800 already, in my opinion, hryvnias, the local community gives to a businessman , i know his last name, well, i also respect this businessman, well, maybe i respect the fact that he is in ukraine, and he is trying to develop the economy of ukraine, this is very good, but not now these funds, well, there is no way right now for 18... kilometers, more than half a billion in kyiv, i see that it is possible to give more from the kyiv budget, if we don't deal with the roads around kyiv right now, and the district roads, we don't need

them for us... well, everything will go to the metro now, mr. ambassador, that's all will go to the subway, now the subway is possible and necessary, because it is a matter of time, the efficiency of people's work, i'm not against it here, but the district can suffer, after all, tanks don't go there, you know, on the district, and i, this is what i see, as a kyivan, i see that pirova boulevard could not have been to cover with asphalt again , and this is a lot of money, so a billion, it will be distributed to roads, i see a general national, ukrainian railway tender... it opens trains from the ski express to slavske, well, that is, if i, if it were poles, there they were brought into the country, i would still understand, well, in principle, the people of kyiv who will take this money there to literally, it is not, nothing will change, well , i am not a specialist, i will say this, my reactions are subjective, after all, i am a person who was in the public service, i understand what it is and where resources are taken, so it is possible so

they will search, but it's not... in fact , it won't help to close all the questions. unfortunately, i have to end our conversation, i am sincerely grateful to you, mr. ambassador, for this not too optimistic, but honest conversation, i want to remind our viewers that valery chalyi, a former extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador of ukraine to the united states, extremely informed political scientist and internationalist now. the time of our program has run out, stay tuned to the espresso tv channel. my colleagues will inform you about all the most important events. these days, take care of yourself and your loved ones, see you on the air, laughter, physical activity, sneezing, even during such a small load, urinary incontinence can make itself felt, feminost uro helped me. thanks to the natural components of feminost uro , it helps to regain control over

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