with approaches precisely in the military sphere, rather it would be more desirable for the administration to invite the president of ukraine for lobbying, pushing the aid package, 61.4 billion. well, it is good that this visit took place, i knew it and they knew it in washington, and that is open in the text, everyone said that volodymyr zelenskyi's visit will not affect anything in this regard from the point of view of the congress, because everything in the congress is already... clear to everyone, there is good news, there is bad news, bad news that is known to everyone in america elections, and not only elections president, it's a congressional election, i mean the entire house of representatives, and 1/3 of the senate, and you look at the rhetoric, the traditional republicans, they've gone to the rhetoric of just a fringe group that was fringe, and now it's becoming mainstream, that's what they said, a small group of mage. about the trumpists

or the freedom caucus, no, now this is the main narrative of the republicans before the elections , unfortunately, because in this narrative, in addition to the delay in helping ukraine, let's be honest, there is a moment of not providing help to ukraine, and unfortunately, the situation developed exactly in such a plan, that is why the main task of the president of ukraine was to influence the white house, president biden, so that, well... thank you for the help that is available and agree on a plan for the next year, and this plan should consist of three things: first, and i i am sure that it was discussed, although i do not have insider information from their meetings between the presidents, but from what was publicly heard at the press conference and actually from their own experience , they discussed the vision of whether there will be success next year in terms of military, in terms of war, this is the first, the decision depended on it josepha biden, the second thing that is needed for...

for this success to be done with the supply of weapons, and it is clear that for this success, a completely different approach is needed, it needs 300 missiles at least atakams, it needs several dozen planes at once f16 platforms, permission from well whether or not the united states opposes strikes on the airfields from which we are being struck, this is also russian territory, this is rostov-on, this is the part closer to us, this is approval of this, and... nothing will come of it yet, that is, this is a necessary change philosophy, common to both strategy and tactics, joint resistance to russian aggression, let's say de-occupation of ukrainian territories, and the third is the institutional capacity of ukraine, to what extent the ukrainian state and ukrainian society can withstand the issues of mobilization for war and the ability of the social sphere to work. in

the regime, that regime, that is, that is, the mood of the population and the mood, that is the result , i will tell you first, the press conference, despite the phrase of president biden, it was said in my opinion, well, for the first time in my memory, that we will work for the victory of ukraine, no how much is needed, for the victory of ukraine, the phrase was good, there were other phrases, well, in my opinion, nato was a very unsuccessful reaction. this is a successful reaction of president zelensky, who forwarded this question to president biden, and from president biden's answer, we understood that the question of the political, political question of ukraine's accession or invitation to the washington summit next year is currently not being considered by the white house administration, but to ask the question , that only after the war, when ukraine will defend itself, this you know, since it's talk for the poor, after all, that's what we are. poor in the current

situation, so because we understand what our budget tells us, that is, if there is no money from the european union and the united states, then there will be, so to speak, but it is not about money, i want to finish and explain, it's about much more, we've been looking at money in recent months , it's not about money, it's about the position of the usa now, will it be the same as it was before, or will it change radically, so according to body language, what was on. .. conference to me i really don't like the mood of joseph biden, what caused it, i can judge from previous meetings with him personally, from what i saw before, that the mood was not optimistic. why this happened, i cannot say, so here is my conclusion: two scenarios now, there are no different options, there are two scenarios: the first scenario, it is not very optimistic for us, it is that now by blaming the republicans ... because that they

did not provide aid to ukraine, the democrats and joseph biden will be hanged, well, they will be hung politically, they will be transferred to them responsibility for the fact that ukraine did not... get everything it needed and thus show that they are unfortunately unable to achieve what could be a victory under such conditions, what joseph bell said is the first option, and it is, unfortunately, i do not write it off, it is still there, well, it is not a very good scenario, what does this mean, it means that in a few months, well, by the summer, maybe next year, ukraine will have the means for conducting further intensive... combat operations, and there will no longer be such means of such an intensity of war, in conditions when putin and russia, on the contrary, now sees it and wants to increase the intensity. and the second scenario , it is also now, i would still hope for it, is that the white house has

an understanding of how they can squeeze a funding package for ukraine, and thus, after hearing convincing arguments from the president of ukraine, go for a strategy correction , that is, what i said, after all, next year, maybe not until the summer, maybe later, but to force putin to negotiate, well, there are two scenarios, everything else is additional elements, so here are some factors that will appear the following days will show where this pendulum will swing, and unfortunately, i see that the decision has not yet been made, and that's good, because it can be as positive as it can be as bad as possible. that in these conditions there is still no final vision, well , who is about what, and i am about money in this case, and not only about american money, about european money and in general about the so-called big game and possibly coordination secretly, unannounced in brussels, berlin and washington,

this is how it is said in particular about this, that is, we got an extremely powerful geopolitical a signal from the european union, it is about the start of negotiations and so on, and we received... a minus, in particular, when we talk about the macro-finance, to draw up the budget and endure the next year without clear help from the european union, we cannot, and here i wanted to ask you, this was orbán's individual game now, what we saw, here are all his, you know, grasshoppers that he threw out, did he do exactly what he was allowed to do, yes, well, maybe orbán is now playing the role of a part of trumpists - republicans, yes, which in a certain way, so to speak, do what... what are they allowed to do? first of all, this is a very good decision and a timely political decision, and i first of all congratulate the europeans for finding the strength to look strategically, it is not often that europe looks strategically, now they have played the right way and made a political

decision to start negotiations with ukraine, this firstly, a signal to the kremlin and putin, you remember that he blackmailed both ukraine and the eu until the 14th year of european integration. and this became the cause of euromaid, the stoppage of european integration, that is, it is a good political signal. second, it is a clear reform plan for ukraine. in fact, you can now forget about all government innovation strategies for seven years, economic development for 10 years, everything will now develop in the negotiated process with the eu, and this is independent of the ukrainian government, this will be a process, the ukrainian people will not let it go, and everyone the next ukrainian president will adapt to the program of reforms under requirements, that is, it is a good thing, the third, which is very important, they found a way around blocking by an individual country, well orban in particular, now you ask how coordinated it was, it is about different

points, yes, i think that moscow had such a desire, and i think orban, he actually, because of that he was given what he asked for. well, he is like that, you know, a trader from geopolitics, he squeezed 10 billion from the european union, and i will tell you this, the first such tranche of 10 billion is blocked so far, and there is a program of 30 billion, hungary receives more than from brussels by 4, 5 billion every year, and he threw putin in fact in this one situation, he dumped putin, this is a victory, and we must thank german chancellor scholz and president macron, first. turn to these two leaders, and this is a good sign, it means that germany and france see ukrainian development further and see that ukraine will be part of the european space, so i most likely respond negatively to this story, because orban spoiled it, what they

wanted to play like this, to block it completely in the states, to block it in europe, the game is not over yet, because orban's political advisor has just announced orban's last name. stated that they will continue to block finances, that is what you say, that is, the game is political, well, okay, we failed here and they would have blocked our money, but then we will... block everything that is finance, but there is a solution, in fact, near, after the political decision of the eu, the financial solution can be found at the bilateral level, it's a little more difficult, but here the bans are longer, more difficult, yes, and it will affect the intensity of our, well, let's say, our defense capacity, because defense now, it seems to be at the front, yes, all of it more, but next year it will be a somewhat different war. it will not only be a physical front on land or in the black

sea or in the air, it will also be the country's, institutional, and society's capacity to measure the counteraction, the confrontation of two systems, and this will be a serious challenge that you have not seen in recent months, in principle so bright, and therefore, money matters, absolutely, and here a lot of effort will be made now. to block both in the states and in europe, and wherever possible, and putin is very much counting on it, he is saying this directly now, he is counting on the fact that aid , both financial and with weapons, will decrease, and this will lead to the loss of ukraine's opportunities as much as possible, well, restore the asymmetry, let's say overcome it with russia, because he threw in all the resources, in fact, i believe that in russia. the situation is not much better than ours in this regard, and they threw all resources and opportunities for the 24th

year, the truth is that they calculated somewhere until the month of november, before the elections in the usa, and we, well, europe and the usa, still have to accept this challenge, a europe, europe must show and is showing the example of the usa that it is necessary to continue the support, let 's now try to analyze how we should act correctly, intelligently so that... so that we can, maybe there are still some prospects for helping our friends democrats to influence trumpists, so that the money still goes and the right decision is made in our favor, and here the key story is how the americans see the formula for their success, so in the support of ukraine. it is unlikely that we will be interesting in the plan here, if we are to say that our situation is getting worse is difficult, in fact it... is not such that we can expect changes. we have already seen

difficult situations when russia advanced actively, and then there were successful actions, not only at the front. i think the republicans are now pushing the white house and joseph biden where he didn't want to go. and it is meant to make the issue in ukraine or the issue of opposition to russia, an issue in its own part. election campaign, they actually do, they had a choice, they could criticize the democratic opponents and joseph biden for insufficient aid to ukraine, they chose another, unfortunately for us, they in general, if frankly i see, mike johnson leads to not giving aid to ukraine, not giving, and what they all started talking about migration policy again suddenly in ties to just aid to ukraine, this is a bad sign, a very bad sign, because you can... explain 50 times that this is how it is done in america, that this is the approach in congress, it is

true, they, they trade issues, by the way , a very wrong approach and very so strange for european politicians, in america, they consider it normal to trade in the congress on various issues, including us national security, this will lead america, will lead in a very bad direction in my opinion, this has happened especially in the last 10 years or so, this approach, so to me... it seems that not everything is defined , if joseph biden accepts this challenge and makes ukrainian success an issue of his election campaign in part, because the main domestic issues, this is a good sign for us, and this is the pressure of the republicans and their complete, well, even opposition to aid to ukraine, i believe there was opposition, until recently there was still a dilemma between the traditional republicans and this fringe group, now that the traditional republicans have surrendered. look at what lancey graham , who came to ukraine, met with

zelensky, told about the fact that mccain's associate lancey graham, who did so much, look at what he said, i don't want to sit in washington for another week, i i am going to my district, this is a disaster, i simply could not expect such words from lancey graham, that is, they took a joint position, squeeze joseph biden's political rating, lower him on the issue of migration. this is a political struggle in its purest form, but where the national interests of the usa are safe here, i do not see at all, the only explanation i have is that they have some cunning plan, and this plan is known in the white house, i do not know it, that they will squeeze out this package of 61.4 billion on israel, ukraine, taiwan and the border, and that it may decrease there, perhaps by some amount, but will be the main one for the whole year. this is the only thing that i can explain now to all those who are pro-ukrainian, including graham, yes, the republicans, micheal mcconnell, there is something else, by the way, the senate is

now trying to somehow correct the situation and continue for a week, well... according to information , to continue its work there for now and still make a decision by pushing the house of representatives and the same mike johnson to change his approach, but mike johnson will not change his approach, donald trump is behind him, we do not know who is behind donald trump , because his decision is in principle, well, we can say that part is behind him americans who advocate isolationism and the reduction of external, up to leaving nato. example, so why is there such a signal that is not very pleasant for me? i found in the adopted new military budget , the military budget of the united states, i found a new item 1250a about not allowing the president to single-handedly make a decision on withdrawing from nato, it is written exactly like that, there are no

international organizations, everything from nato, this is a signal, it is clear where on possible the arrival of donald trump in the white house, but it was contradictory from the point of view of the us constitution, you can appeal to the supreme court, in my opinion, it is unlikely that this law alone can prohibit it, but it will be decided by the americans, at least the fuse, maykrubi and others did it there, but i did not find it, well, i will say it now, for the time being not signed by the president of the usa and the nba. i did not find there what i have been following for a long time actually every day for the last two weeks. paragraph paragraph 1224 on the continuation of the law on lendlis of the 22nd year, the law on lenis never came into force, by the way, the law was signed, but they did not launch the model, and maybe not for nothing

launched, not launched, and why is it bad now that this point is not there? i still have to search for almost 200 pages, but until i found this clause in this law, it fell out yesterday, well, it fell out before the signing, before the vote by the senate, what fell out , i don’t have it yet, well, there is no exchange with the american ones in washington, maybe someone else knows it more, but just now it's a very dangerous thing, why, because it could be an alternative. just an option in the event that congress does not provide funding, the white house and joseph biden says, okay, you do not give me funding, i am running lendlis, which i did on may 9 of last year, well, we accepted the initiative of the republicans on your initiative, yes, there will be more in terms of technology, in terms of everything, but now i

take this tool on the table, i have it, if you do not want to give money, i i use this tool , and... if there is no tool, and if the democrats and the white house have now agreed to it, i generally want to understand, first i will find out, maybe someone will help finally, whether this item will appear after the signing by the president of the united states, if the clause on the continuation of the law does not appear there growth, this is a very bad signal, a very bad signal, it means, it means, and what the white house actually refuses. from this type of program of intensive arms supply to ukraine, because there is a high probability that the finances will be cut, it is a bad option, but you know, there are two sides to the coin, now the second option, which we do not know, maybe, again, joseph biden knows, that he will tighten the finances, then all my arguments

will be removed, then the package of finances for 61.4 will be enough for the military as well. questions, well there somewhere less than half, but it will be enough according to what the germans give us, the european countries will be enough, and the financial budget of 11.7, plus japan, plus others, is enough, that is, now concluding, if we do not see by the end of january, the beginning of february, as a result of all this, no package, 61.4, league, then i... i can tell you predictably what choice the united states made, now today there is a struggle, and in this struggle, unfortunately, the arguments of the president are already there ... of ukraine, they are already useful only from a point of view vision, what we will do. yes, well, if everything goes well, then we know what to do, the key story is what and how and when we should do it already, in order to

be safe in case the republicans really manage to collapse the macro-finance of aid for ukraine, in particular, it is about aid and military , yes? we have great hopes for the european union, but in this situation can we already be sure... that the europeans will cover all our internal needs, well, it's no secret that the government of ukraine counted on these funds for planning for the 24th year, and officially, they see the failure of us funds as a disaster, they even officially declared that without these funds we will lose the war, but i am categorically against such already pessimistic on... pessimistic attitudes, a very wrong approach, right away seesaw, first we go on a counterattack, then we are fine , don't worry, bipartisan support in the us, when

i said 2.5 months ago that the scenario may not be difficult, it is the most profitable, it is being implemented, why are they not listening 2.5 months ago, i don't understand why then the landing party at the last moment, when it could be done systematically, we had three months, three months to do it. no, let's show inside ukraine, who made what efforts , who raised it deeply, yes, everyone is doing pr on this, as a result of pr, it may soon happen that, god forbid, it will all fall apart, and then you will do pr, this is the emotional part , now the part is positive, so you have to sit down, and as always i did this in my work, several scenarios, and i do not exclude the negative one, and what i do in case of a negative scenario, i have in... answers on what, what, how to plan now, when everyone in the government is still waiting, maybe something will come , some kind of manna from heaven, i don’t know, i would, for example,

look at the options, i think they in the ministry of finance are looking at what can be reduced not in terms of salaries and pensions there, because it will have a very catastrophic impact on motivation in ukraine, and even more so, these funds are usually tied up, well, people who receive little. salaries and pensions, they don't carry this money in , well, not in a bucket, to the store or pay or contribute to the army, so you have to think, what to do with local programs, which , in principle, the personal income tax is now taken from local budgets, but nevertheless, when i see this discussion, let's be honest, in kyiv there is a budget of 77 billion, yes ... or 74 there, well, such a figure is more than 70 hryvnias from this budget , hryvnias, are allocated to the purchase of needs

for the army there, yes, that is, it is not the task of the local budget to finance the armed forces, no, but when there are statements, and they have already been refuted, in fact, that local budgets should not carry out the war, and that should be done by the central budget, you know people don't care what the budget... will be pulled , people understand, it's going, again, it's not a question of victory, it's a question of defense and survival of ukraine, so in these conditions there is room to tighten the belts a little, well, for example, i saw a program, next to another ski complex is being created in bukovel, 560 million, now 800, in my opinion, hryvnias, the local community gives the businessman a well-known surname. well, i also respect this businessman, well, maybe i respect the fact that he is in ukraine, and he is trying to develop the economy of ukraine, this is very good, but not now these

funds, well, there are none now for this 18 km road more than half a billion, in kyiv i see that it is possible to give more from the kyiv budget, if we do not deal with the roads in kyiv, yes the district, we don't need it, we can, well , everything will go to the metro now, mr. ambassador, everything will go to the metro now. it is possible and necessary, because it is a question of time, the efficiency of people's work, i am not against it, but the district can suffer, after all, tanks do not go there, you know, on the district, and i, it is i who see how kyivan, i see that perov boulevard could not be covered with asphalt again, and this is a lot of money, so a billion, it will be distributed among roads, i see a general national tender, ukrzaliznytsia opens trains on the ski express slavske. well, that is, if i, if it were poles who drove them to the country themselves, i would still understand, well, in principle, the people of kyiv who will take this money there to bukovel, it

won't change anything. well, i'm not a specialist , i'll say it like this, these are my reactions, subjective, after all, i'm a person who was in the public service, i understand what it is and where resources are taken, so you can look for it like this, but it's not will actually close all the questions, no will give unfortunately, i have to end our conversation, i am sincerely grateful to you, mr. ambassador, for this not too optimistic but honest conversation. i want to remind our viewers that valery chaly, the former extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador, was currently working for them on the espresso broadcast. of ukraine in the united states, an extremely informed political scientist and internationalist now. the time of our program has run out, stay tuned to the espresso tv channel. my colleagues will inform you about all the most important events of this day. take care of yourself and your loved ones. before meeting on the air warning. new out of the box

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