[000:00:40;00] valery chaley, former extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador of ukraine to the united states, former deputy director of the presidential administration for international cooperation, will be working on espresso tv channel. glory to ukraine. mr. ambassador, i congratulate you. glory, congratulations. we want to sum up the dry summaries of president zelenskyi's visit, and this

story is not about... the formal visit of our president, it is about very specific decisions that were made or postponed by the american administration. well, first of all, what was in the request of the ukrainian side, dates was not initially accepted by the partners, joseph biden did not have time for a meeting at that time, well, it happens, but the desire was precisely to synchronize with the holding of the ukraine-u.s. defense cooperation forum, which was logical, because... that the military-industrial the lobby in the usa can influence, could and can influence the situation, because 90% of all funds from the military budget, what is sent to ukraine, they remain with the states, that is, they work for the us economy, they create jobs, they go to technological rearmament , for example, within this rearming of the atakams missile, those that are in

service. are now being replaced by new pirsm missiles, with a longer range and greater accuracy, and in principle , this was facilitated by the ukrainian program, including that, so i think that all these arguments that did not lead to the visit at that time, they, well, i don’t want to mention them to deal with approaches specifically in the military sphere, rather it would be more desirable for the administration to invite the president of ukraine to lobby for... pushing the 61.4 billion aid package. well, it's good that this visit took place, i knew, and they knew it in washington, and everyone said openly that the visit of volodymyr zelenskyi will not affect anything in this regard from the point of view of the congress, because in the congress everything is already clear to everyone, there is good news, there is bad news, bad news known to everyone,

there is an election in america, and it's not just an election. the president, it's a congressional election, i mean, the full house, and 1/3 of the senate, and you look at the rhetoric, the traditional republicans, they've gone to the rhetoric of just a fringe group that was fringe, and now it's becoming mainstream, it's like they said, a small group of maga, about the trumpists or the freedom caucus, no, now this is the main narrative of the republicans before the elections, unfortunately, because this is it. narrative , in addition to delaying aid to ukraine , let's be honest, there is a moment of not providing aid to ukraine, and unfortunately, the situation developed precisely in this way, so the main task of the president of ukraine was to influence the white house on president biden to thank him for the help, which is and agree on a plan for the next year, and this plan should consist of three things:

the first, and i'm sure that this... was discussed, although i don't have inside information from their meetings between the presidents, but from what was publicly heard at the press conference, and actually from my own experience , they discussed the vision of whether there will be success next year in military terms , in terms of war, this is the first , joseph ben's decision depended on this, the second is what needs to be done with the supply of weapons for this success, and it is clear that this success requires a completely different approach, it requires 300 missiles, attacks with this several dozen planes are needed at once f-16 platforms, the permission, well, the permission or not the denial of the us strikes on the airfields from which we are being struck, this is also russian territory, this is rostov-on, this is the part closer to us, this is approval of this, otherwise nothing will happen, that is, it requires a change of philosophy, joint and strategy, tactics,

joint... resistance to russian aggression, let's say, de-occupation of ukrainian territories, and the third is the institutional capacity of ukraine, to what extent the ukrainian state and ukrainian society can withstand the issues. mobilization for the war the ability of the social sphere to work in the regime in that regime, that is, that is, the mood of the population and the mood, that is the result , i will tell you first, the press conference, despite the phrase of president biden, it was said in my opinion, well, for the first time in my memory, that we will work for ukraine's victory, not as much as necessary, for victory. of ukraine. the phrase was good. there were other phrases, well, nato was a very, in my opinion, unsuccessful reaction. the successful reaction of president zelensky, who forwarded this question to president biden. and according to president biden's answer, we

understood that the political issue, the political issue of ukraine's accession or invitation to the washington summit next year, is currently not considered in the white house administration. and to ask the question that... only after the war, when ukraine will defend itself, you know, because, well , these are talks for the poor, after all, we are the poor in the current situation, so, because we understand what our budget tells us , that is, if there is no money from the european union and the united states, it will be, so to speak, but not about money it's about, i want to finish and explain, it's about much more, we've been looking at money in recent months, it's not about money, it's about the position of the us now. will it be the same as it was before, or will it change radically, so based on body language, what happened at the press conference, i really did not like the mood of joseph byton, what caused it, i can from previous

personal meetings with him, from what i saw earlier, judging by the fact that the mood was not optimistic, why this happened, i can't say, so my conclusion is the following, there are two scenarios now, there are no different options. there are two scenarios, the first scenario, it is not very optimistic for us, it is that now by accusing the republicans of not providing aid to ukraine, the democrats and joseph biden will be hanged, well hanged politically, they will be blamed for the fact that that ukraine did not get everything it needed, and thus they will show that they, unfortunately, are not able to achieve what could have been in such conditions. victory is what joseph bell said is the first option, and it is, unfortunately, i do not write it off, it is still there, well, it is such a scenario that is not very good, what does this mean, it means that somewhere in a few months, well, by the summer, maybe

next year, in ukraine there will be means for er to conduct further intensive hostilities, and then there will be no such means of such an intensity of war, in conditions where putin and russia, on the contrary, now... they see this and want to increase the intensity, and the second scenario, it is also now, i would still hope for him, it's that the white house has an understanding of how they can push the envelope funding to ukraine, and thus , after hearing convincing arguments from the president of ukraine, to go to the correction of the strategy, that is, what i said, after all, next year, maybe not until the summer, maybe later, but to force putin to negotiate, that's all two scenarios, everything else is additional elements, so some factors that will appear in the next days will show where, where this pendulum will swing, and unfortunately, the decision, i

see, has not been made yet, and that's good, so which can be as positive as possible, and it is bad that in these conditions there is still no final result vision, well, who is about what, and i am about money in this case, and not only about american money? money about european money and in general about the so-called big game and perhaps coordination secretly, unannounced in brussels, berlin and washington, this is what is being said in particular about this, that is, we received an extremely powerful geopolitical signal from the european union, it is about the start of negotiations and so on further, and we got a minus, in particular, when we talk about macrofinance, to settle the budget and endure the next year without clear help from the european we are a union. we can't, and here i wanted to ask you, this was orbán's individual game now, what we saw, all of his, you know, the grasshoppers that he threw, did he do exactly what he was allowed to do, yes , well, maybe orbán is now playing the role of part

of the trumpist republicans, yes, who in a certain way, so to speak, are doing what they are allowed to do, first of all, this is a very good decision and a timely political decision, and i welcome, first of all, and... europeans, that they have found the strength to look strategically, it is not often that europe looks strategically, now they are played the game correctly, and made a political decision to start negotiations with ukraine, this is, firstly... a signal to the kremlin and putin, you remember that he blackmailed both ukraine and the eu, until the 14th year, specifically european integration, and this was the cause of euromaid, the stoppage of european integration, that is, it is a good political signal. second, this is a clear plan of reforms for ukraine, you can now actually forget about all government innovation strategies for seven years, economic development for 10 years, everything will now develop in the negotiated process with the eu, and this is regardless of ukrainian authorities, this will be a process , the ukrainian people will not allow it to change, and

each ukrainian president, the next one, will adjust the reform program to these requirements, that is, this is a good thing, the third, which is very important, they found a way to bypass the blocking by an individual country, yes well , specifically orban, now you are asking how coordinated it was, there are different points, yes, i think that moscow had such a desire. and it seems to me that orbán, he is actually, because of the fact that he was given what he demanded, well, he is, you know, a trader from geopolitics, he squeezed 10 billion from the european union, and i will tell you this, the first such tranche of 10 billion is blocked for now, and there is a program of 30 billion, hungary receives 4.5 billion more from brussels every year, and he abandoned putin. in this situation, he

dumped putin, this is a victory, and we must thank german chancellor scholz and president macron, primarily these two letters, and this is a good sign, which means that germany and france see ukrainian development further and see that ukraine will be part of the european space, that is why i most likely respond negatively to this story, because orban spoiled it, what they wanted to play like this, to block it in the states, to block it in europe, the game is not over yet, because orban pizvishche, the political advisor of orban, also stated , that they will continue to block finance , that is what you say, that is, the game is political, well, okay, we failed here and they would have blocked our money, but then we will block everything that is finance, but here there is a solution, actually field after the political decision of the eu, financial the solution can be found at the bilateral level. it's a little more difficult, but the bans

are longer, more difficult, yes, and it will affect the intensity of our, well, let's say this, the ability of our defense, because the defense now, it seems to be at the front, yes, it's all more, but next year it's there will already be a slightly different war, it will no longer be only a physical front on land or there in the black sea or in the air, it will also be with... the capacity of the country, institutional, society, that is to measure the counteraction, the confrontation of two systems, that is what will be serious challenge which has not been seen in recent months, in principle so vividly, and therefore, money matters, absolutely, and here a lot of efforts will be made now, to block both in the states and in europe, and wherever possible, and putin is counting on this very much, he directly says so. now he is counting on the fact that

both financial and weapons aid will decrease, and this will lead to the loss of ukraine's opportunities as much as possible, well, to restore the asymmetry, let's say, to overcome it with russia, because he threw in all the resources. in fact, i believe that in russia the situation is not much better than ours in this regard, and they threw all the resources and opportunities for the 24th year, however, they calculated. somewhere before the month of november, before the elections in the usa, and we, well , europe and the usa, still have to accept this challenge, and europe, europe has to show and is showing the example of the usa that it is necessary to continue support, let's now try to analyze how we should , to act wisely so that we can, maybe there are still some prospects for helping our democrat friends influence the trumpists so that... or still go and was the right decision made in our

favor, and the key story here is how the americans see the formula for their success in supporting ukraine. it is unlikely that we will be interested in the plan here, if we say that our situation is deteriorating, difficult, in fact it is not such that we expect changes. we have already seen difficult situations when russia... advanced actively, and then there were successful actions and not only on the front, but i think that the republicans are now squeezing the white house and joseph biden where they wanted? and it is meant to make the issue in ukraine or the issue of countering russia, the issue in their part of their election campaign, they actually do it, they had a choice, they could criticize the opponents, the democrats and joseph biden for not helping ukraine enough, they chose otherwise, unfortunately , for us,

they generally, if frankly i see, mike johnson leads to not providing aid to ukraine, not providing, and what they all started talking about migration policy. again, suddenly, in connection with exactly the help of ukraine - this is a bad sign, a very bad sign, because you can explain 50 times that this is how it is done in america, that this is the approach in the congress, it is true, they, they trade issues, by the way, a very wrong approach and very strange for european politicians, in america, they consider it normal to trade in congress on various issues, including the national security of the united states, this is america. will lead in a very bad direction, in my opinion, it has happened, especially in the last 10 years or so, this approach, so it seems to me that not everything is decided if joseph biden takes this challenge and does ukraine's success is a question of its election campaign, partly because the main internal issues are a good sign for us, and

the pressure of the republicans and their complete, well, even opposition to aid to ukraine, i consider that opposition. until recently, there was still a dilemma between the traditional republicans and this marginal group, now that the traditional republicans have given up, they are giving in, look at what lancey graham, who came to ukraine, met with zelenskyi, told about what lancey graham, who did so much ally of mccain, look what he is said, i don't want to sit in washington for another week, i'm going to my district, it's a disaster, i just couldn't expect such words from lancey graham. that is, they adopted a common position, to squeeze the political rating out of joseph biden, to lower him on the issue of migration, this is a political struggle in its purest form, but i do not see where the national interests of the usa are safe here, the only explanation i have is that they have some a cunning plan, and this plan is known in the white house, i do not

know it, they will still squeeze out the package, this 61.4 billions on israel, ukraine, taiwan and the border, and that it may decrease somewhat there. maybe for some amount, but it will be the main one for the whole year. this is the only thing that i can explain now to all such pro-ukrainian people, including graham's laziness, and the republicans, about konel's condescension, there is something else, by the way, the senate is now trying to somehow correct the situation and continue for a week, well, according to the information for now there to continue his work and still make a decision, pushing the house of representatives and the same mike johnson, to change his approach. but mike johnson is not will change his approach, donald trump is behind him, we do not know who is behind donald trump, because his decision in principle, well, we can say, behind him is that part of americans who advocate isolationism and the reduction

of external before the withdrawal from nato, for example, that's why the alarm is not very pleasant for me, i found it in the adopted new one. military budget, the military budget of the united states, i found a new section 1250a about not allowing the president alone to make decisions about withdrawal from nato, it is written exactly like that, international organizations are not there, everything from nato, this is a signal, it is clear where, for the possible arrival of donald trump in the white house, but it is contradictory from the point of view of the us constitution, you can appeal to the supreme court, even. in my opinion, it is unlikely that this law alone can prohibit it, but it will be decided by the americans, at least the fuse, maikrubi and others made it there, but i did not find it, well, i will say it now, for the time being, until

the president of the united states has yet to sign it, nda, i didn't find something there that everyone really followed for a long time day, the last two weeks, point paragraph 12. on the extension of the law on lendlease of the 22nd year, the law on lendlease never entered into force, by the way, the law was signed, but they did not launch the model, and maybe they did not launch it for nothing, did not launch and why is it bad now that this clause is not there, i still have to look for almost 200 pages, but until i found this clause in this law, it fell out in... well, it fell out before the signing , before the vote by the senate, what fell out, i don’t have it yet, well, there is no exchange with the american ones in washington, maybe someone else knows it more, but just now it's a very dangerous thing, why? because it could be

an alternative option just in case the congress does not give the finances, the white house and joseph biden says: okay, you don't give me the finances, i start the lendlis, which i on may 9 of last year, well, we accepted on your initiative republicans, yes, there will be more technology behind everything, but i now... i take this tool on the table, i have it, if you don't want to give money, i use this tool, and if there is no tool, and if you have agreed to it now democrats and the white house i generally want to understand, first i will find out, and maybe someone will help finally, whether this clause will appear after the signing by the president of the united states, if the clause on the continuation of the law does not appear there. this is a very bad signal, a very bad signal, this means, this means, and what

is the white house refusing, in fact, from this type of program of intensive supply of weapons to ukraine, because there is a high probability that the finances will be cut, now this is a bad option, but you know, a medal has two sides, now the second option we don't know maybe, again, joseph biden knows he's going to squeeze the finances. then all my arguments are removed, then the package of finances for 61.4 will be enough for military issues, well , there is somewhere less than half, but it will be enough approximately because the germans, european countries also give us, it will be enough, and the finances of the budget 11 ,7, plus japan, plus others is enough, that is, now concluding, if we do not see the intersection at the end. the beginning of february, as a result of all this, no 60.4

league package, then i can tell you, predicted what choice did the united states make, today there is a struggle, and in this struggle , unfortunately, the arguments of the president of ukraine are already there, they are already useful only from the point of view of what we will do, yes, well, if everything goes well, then we we know what to do, the key story, what and... how and when should we do it already , in order to be safe in case the republicans really manage to collapse the macro-finance of aid for ukraine, in particular , it is about aid and military, so we place great hopes on the european union, but in this situation, can we already be certain that the europeans will cover all our internal needs, well, it is no secret that the government of ukraine was counting on these funds for the 24th year, and officially, they see

the failure to see us funds as a disaster, they even officially declared that without these funds we will lose the war, but i am categorically against such already pessimistic attitudes, pessimistic, a very wrong approach, swings right away, first we go on the counterattack, then everything is fine. don't worry bipartisan support in the us when i said another 2.5 months ago that the scenario may not be complicated, it is the most profitable, here it is implemented, why do not they listen 2.5 months ago, i do not understand why then the landing party at the last moment, when it was possible to do system work, we had three months , it took three months , no, let's show inside ukraine, who made what efforts, who raised this depth, yes , everyone is doing pr on this, soon it may happen that, god forbid, it will all fall apart, and then you will do pr, this is the emotional part, now

the part is positive, so you have to sit down, and how i have always done this in my work, several scenarios, and i do not rule out the negative, and what i do in the event of a negative scenario, i have answers to what, what, how to plan now, when everyone in the government is still waiting, maybe something will come mana sky i don't know, i would, for example, look at the options, i think they in the ministry of finance are looking at what can be cut not in terms of salaries there and pensions, because it will have a very catastrophic impact on the motivation of ukraine, and even more so these funds as the rule is connected, well, people who receive small salaries and pensions, they carry these the money is not in, well, not in the cube, in the store, or they pay or tip. for the army, so it is necessary to think about what to do with local programs,

which, in principle, the personal income tax is now being taken from the local budget. but nevertheless , when i see this discussion, let's be honest, in kyiv there is a budget of 77 billion, but literally or 74 there, well, such a figure, more than 70 hryvnias of the budget, from this budget, hryvnias are allocated for the purchase of needs for the army there, yes, that is, it is not the task of the local budget to finance the armed forces, no, but when the statements are made and they already refuted in fact. that local budgets should not drag the war, but the central budget should do it, you know, people don't care what budget will drag, people understand, it goes, again, it's not a question of victory, it's a question of defense and survival of ukraine, so in these conditions there is tighten the straps a little, well, for example, i saw the program,

another ski complex is being created near bukovel. 560 million, now it is already 800, in my opinion, hryvnias, the local community gives to a businessman, i know his last name, well, i also respect this businessman, well, maybe i respect the fact that he is in ukraine, and he is trying to develop the economy of ukraine, it is very good, but not now these funds, well, there is not more than half a billion for this road for 18 km, in kyiv i see that it is possible to give more from the kyiv budget, if we do not deal with it now... there are roads along kyiv, yes the district , we don't need it, we can, well, everything will go to the metro now, mr. ambassador, everything will go to the metro, now, the metro is possible and necessary, because it's a matter of time, the efficiency of people's work, i'm not against it, but the district road can suffer, after all, tanks don’t go there, you know, on the district road, and i, that’s what i see, as a kyivan, i see that pirova boulevard could not be covered with asphalt again, and

this is a lot of money, so a billion, it is allocated to... for roads, i see a nationwide tender, ukrzaliznytsia opens trains from the ski express to slavske, well , that is , if it were me, if it were poles, they were being taken to the country there, i would still understand, well, in principle, the people of kyiv who will take this money there to bukovel, it won’t change anything, well, i’m not a specialist, i’ll put it this way, these are my reactions are subjective, after all, a person who was in the public service, i understand what it is it goes... resources, you can search for them, but it won't actually close all the questions, it won't. i have to conclude our conversation on a very high note, i am sincerely grateful to you, mr. ambassador, for this not too optimistic, but honest conversation. and i want to remind our tv viewers that valery chalyy, the former extraordinary plenipotentiary ambassador of ukraine to the united states,

now an extremely well-informed political scientist and internationalist, was working for them on the espresso broadcast. our program time is up, stay. my colleagues you will inform about all the most important events of this day. take care of yourself and your loved ones, see you on the air. watch this week's judicial control with tatyana shustrova in the program. the ban on the maidan, connections with medvedchuk and property of dubious origin are what judge olena izovitova vakim is known for. her mother is the head of the bar council for many years. why didn't the supreme court suspend the judge from administering justice? to announce a break in consideration of the issue. congratulations, this is judicial control, a program about the declarative and real rule of law in ukraine. the foundation for the further development of our state is, in particular, high-quality judicial reform. ukraine's chances of joining the eu depend on it.

today we will talk about those who bring this introduction closer for us, and those who, on the contrary, distance it. but first. but to the news. the state bureau of investigation has completed the investigation into the case against the former judge of the court of appeal of the luhansk region, olga bas, who betrayed her oath and helped the russians create illegal judicial bodies in the temporarily occupied territories of ukraine. for such help, she received the position of senator, representatives of the lpr group in the federation council of the federal assembly of russia. according to the investigation , after the seizure of part of the luhansk region in 2014, bas joined the so-called ministry of state security of the lpr and became the curator of the judicial branch. she developed drafts of illegitimate legislative acts and documents that copy the norms of russian legislation. in 2017, the suspect assumed the position of the so-called head of the administration of the head of the lpr and campaigned for the population of the temporarily occupied part of luhansk region to be recognized by the citizens