israeli gas rigs in the mediterranean sea, an iraqi group , if i am not mistaken, katayebova, did not take responsibility, the israelis did not confirm this, but nevertheless, the war at sea, this is now the focus of attention, in relation to hezbollah, hezbollah and israel are in a dynamic balance, and whether the operation will begin depends on many factors, so far the parties are exchanging, well , such, let's say, proportional blows to each other, the iranians are using hezbollah as a means of pressuring israel to stop, the threat of hezbollah to enter a full-scale war, this, the pressure on israel to stop the operation in the gaza sector, uh, well, this is not happening, hezbollah's pressure is increasing from time to time, oh these days, when the negotiations were approaching ... the end and the situation

was on the verge, the kezbala intensified the shelling , for example, yes, to demonstrate that you agree to the termination of the operation, well, as the situation rolled back, the number of shelling decreased, this is all a purely instrumental use of this organization, mr. sergey, i can’t help but ask, the point is , what just this week the prime minister visited beijing. mykhailo mishustin of russia, he had a meeting with the president of china xijing pinh, and the press service of the ministry of foreign affairs of china actually states that china continues to support the people of the russian federation. i don't know what they mean by this, but does it mean a rapprochement with russia, after everything we have seen in the context of contacts, including leaders, the leader. of china with, for example

, the president of the united states, joseph biden, and it would seem that the understanding of that the economic stability of china is now above all else for its leader, well, in fact, i am not chinese, so i do not undertake to comment on such things, except that i heard from our chinese, ukrainian, chinese scholars that in china they are looking closely at mishustin, as to partner and what does this mean, well, obviously russia needs something, they are coming , they are begging for something from china, what answer did they get to this, and what will be the further development of events, i don’t know, maybe mishustin came to apologize for the fact that the bam was blocked and the logistics of china via russia by rail, was interrupted, as you know, the boom was blocked as a result of a successful operation by one of the special services of ukraine, ugh, well, maybe to china.

and far away, but to the russian federation, which remains our, unfortunately, close, north-eastern neighbor, reach out. we hope that in the near future it will be possible to talk about weakening its positions. thank you, mr. serhiy, for the inclusion, for the professional assessment of the situation. serhiy danilov, deputy director of the center for middle eastern studies, was in touch with us, and as promised, already after a short pause is added. i know you are waiting for vitaly portnikov's saturday political club, today we will talk about, in particular, this press conference of the president of ukraine, and everything that was heard at it, about challenges that in one way or another relate to the visions of the russian federation and its real capabilities , can putin sincerely want to negotiate with ukraine or with the civilized world right now, well... and the factor

of orban, who nevertheless agreed to a meeting with ukrainian president zelensky, these are literally a few topics that i will give you, so briefly announce, before our conversation with vitaly portnikov, be a saturday political club, be with espresso, we'll meet in a few moments. tingling and crawling sensations arise spontaneously and disturb you, the complex is long. anti-neuralgia helps to normalize the functioning of the nervous system. dolgit antineuralgia helps to return to usual activities without population and numbness in the limbs. long-acting antineuralgia capsules. helping your nervous system. damn, stepladders, my legs can't walk anymore. wait, i'm coming. what, there is no health? but what is there? health, on the sixth ten. and i thought so until i tried herovital. gerovital+ is a phytovitamin complex that cares for the heart and strengthens the body. gerovital +. good

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medical purposes. joint problems limit movement. it is unpleasant and painful. strengthen them with doolgit joints. these are bags with collagen and vitamin c to restore articular cartilage. dolgit joints contributes to the normal functioning of the joints and has a positive effect on bone health. dolgit joints facilitate motor functions. with dolgit joints, move freely. we continue the saturday political club on the espresso tv channel. and as promised, in the second part we talk with vitaly portnikov, who is in touch with the studio about the most important events of this week. mr. vitaly, i am glad to see and hear from you. to each other, christina. good evening, good evening, dear viewers. yes, well, let 's start with your permission, probably

the most recent. in my opinion, two very, well, almost simultaneous news. one of them concerns the readiness of the russian federation to sever relations with the united states. in the case of real confiscation of frozen russian assets for the benefit of our state, for the benefit of ukraine. that is, can we conclude that money still means something to putin and his entourage overriding, and whether in fact this need to have significant financial resources could, in your opinion, lead to what putin is demanding. of certain changes regarding the situation with the war in ukraine, exactly such information appeared in her colleagues from the new york times. please. well, let's go in order. i think that when the russian federation threatens

the united states with the severance of diplomatic relations and emphasizes that russia will retaliate against every country that will confiscate russian assets, as the press secretary of the russian president said yesterday. it's not just about money, it is, so to speak, a change in the plans of the russian federation, which is not desirable for them, what is meant is the construction of a war of attrition, in a war of attrition, russia spends certain of its resources on war, on the military-industrial complex, on large money that is spent, by the way, on the army, and along with that the west also spends its money and its resources. and ukraine is spending its money and its resources, and there is, of course, the hope that western money, resources and ukrainian opportunities will run out before the resources of the russian federation, here, when it comes to russian assets, it is proposed

to pay for the entire banquet with russian money, that is, russia is exhausting its resources, its financial capabilities, and along with this, on the other hand, also russian money, on both sides. money, and of course , putin does not like it very much, because it turns out that he will be fined for the war with ukraine every year for a conditional amount of 50-60, maybe 100 billion dollars, and this will mean that russia will not just spend its money for the war, and that she will never see those assets of hers, which she hid in western banks and financial companies, of course this does not suit putin, because then it is not a war of attrition, that is, it is a war. for expansion, but this is a war for expansion exclusively of russian financial resources. the united states does not spend anything, the european union does not spend anything, all ukrainian expenses for the war are paid by putin, well, who will like it, so of course there are quite

serious threats, so of course russia will think about how to legally stop this confiscation of assets. in this there is logic. as for the process of changes, the so-called... which the new york times writes about, they have been talking about this process, these signals for a long time, because the intensification of conversations about russian assets took place in these weeks against the background of these... these problems , which arose with the vote in the congress of the united states with what is happening today in the european union regarding the hungarian position, and i personally with the signals from the russian side that they want some kind of consultations and negotiations there, and not so much with ukraine, but with the west, i can already hear several months in a row. but again, you can see even from this text in the new york times that it is about such. those negotiations that will record for russia , at least de facto

, the fact that it controls the occupied territories, that is, putin needs such a truce that will not allow him to lose even a meter of the occupied territory, in this the philosophy of such is not the end of the war, but maybe the suspension of the war, because in any other case, of course, putin will never agree to ... any real discussion of the possibilities of the suspension of the war, this is the first moment, second moment, putin very much needs these signals that he is ready for a truce to create conflicts among, let's say, allies between ukraine and the west, first of all, among various groups of western politicians, because some will say, well, you see , the offensive of the ukrainian armed forces... did not lead to the liberation of these territories, we spent tens of billions

of dollars, we will continue to spend tens of billions of dollars more, the ukrainian economy will collapse, and so we seem to have a chance to leave under the control of russia what it and so controls, and together with this start the restoration of the ukrainian economy, others will say: well, listen, but in this way we will agree with the fact that international law is... destroyed, that one state can seize 20% of the territory of another by force and nothing, and then you will have to deal with it as a fait accompli. ukrainian politicians , of course, knowing the mood of the population, the sociological ones, which are connected with the fact that the majority of ukrainians believe that the end of the war can only be the exit to the borders of 1991, they also cannot agree to such conditions, and this it is a mandatory condition for putin, it must also be realized, without consent.

he will not allow any negotiations, if not formal, but actual, of the west and ukraine, so that the part of the ukrainian territory that is currently controlled by moscow remains under its control. and another very important point, which is also mentioned in this text in the new york times, which also corresponds to reality: russia does not want to talk with ukraine, ukraine as a subject of politics, it does not see and will not see, this should be discussed in principle for... to be she wants to talk to the united states of america, and american journalists are basically right when they say that the progress is that putin is no longer going to demand from the west to replace the ukrainian leadership. he is ready, so to speak, to agree that the territory currently controlled by the legitimate ukrainian authorities will remain under its control, under the control of this particular administration, which is in kyiv, and not some puppet administration that he was preparing for... of ukraine in february last year, but of course, putin wants to talk about this with

the administration of the united states, it is his negotiating partner, not ukraine at all. and this is another signal, he seems to be telling the administration of joseph biden. if you don't want to deal with me, those are your personal problems, then i will continue the war pending a new american administration with whom i will deal much more comfortably. than you, well, or if you're lucky enough to win the election, i'll talk to you, but now you have a chance before the presidential race in the united states states, it is convenient for me and for myself to end this story, if of course you need to end the war before the election, if not, then there will be completely different arrangements after the presidential election in the united states, maybe on different terms, but it will no longer be yours. .. the problem is, in principle, you will remain the legacy of the unwon war in ukraine, this is, i would say, a game, and

you must always remember that when putin even offers some signals through some people, through some representatives of his special services, it is not mandatory real offer to lead victory, this is very often such an absolutely obvious calculation to make everyone angry in order to recruit, because recruitment is from the point of view of ... the logic of any intelligence officer, it is simply the creation of such conditions under which the recruited person did not do what was in his interests , well, these are absolutely clear techniques about... which we have been observing throughout his tenure as president of the russian federation, and it must be said that they often lead to a positive result for him, and we must therefore be on guard. mr. vitaly, you and i are in this studio it has been said many times that putin is not interested in any kind of control over the patches, albeit large, of the zaporizhia and kherson regions, he does not think much about

the well-being of the people who live in these territories or temporary residents. avdiivka , he is interested in complete control over ukraine, over its statehood, i would even say, the destruction of its statehood, that is, to make such a concept not exist in principle, until suddenly we are talking about the fact that he can agree even on ukraine in the format where now actually along that line, where the fighting is now taking place and under the leadership of the legally elected ukrainian government and president, well, this is not like the position of strength, you know, which we constantly talked about, you and i noted that putin does not need any negotiations, because in he is in a strong position now, there is no question that he may not need negotiations, but he

may need to talk about negotiations in order to achieve some kind of discord between those who oppose him, this is the first moment, another moment... putin is all anyway, we didn't think about him a political figure, a professional, even if not a very strong strategic thinker, even one who tries to live in his illusions when it comes to ukraine and other former soviet republics, but putin knows for sure that this is simply the result of even his not so great skill, and his experience as president of russia, next year, in the summer, will already be 25 years, he is higher positions in the russian, so he knows very well that politics is the art of the possible, he made an attempt to quickly capture this ukraine. well it must be said frankly that this attempt did not succeed. it is

also enough to be sure that a war of attrition, especially if it will be waged, as you and i said, entirely with russian money, will lead to such enthusiasm. er, the conditional idea may come out in 3-4-5 years, or it may not, and there is always the question of how the russian federation itself will live in this situation, because you and i know a lot about russia, but we can imagine , that the russian elites can now simply seek a suspension of such a sharp confrontation. this is the next one point is also very important. maybe putin. believe that if he now captures this 20% of the territory and insures himself against various surprises, let's say there are attempts by the ukrainian troops to try to liberate this territory again with new weapons that you cannot get, this will be an intermediate result, you can

return to the next result , let's say, after 2025, because you and i understand each other very well and... new york times journalists in this regard quote the president of latvia, mr. rinkevich, who says that it is possible to sign any agreements with russia, russia can completely forget these agreements the next day, when it will have a new chance for aggression. so there is also a question here, even if we imagine that some kind of armistice will be signed, not next year, but in 2020. on 5-2026, under the control of russia, as putin wants, 20% of the ukrainian territory will remain, which this means that the ukrainian state, which will control the other 80%, will be able to, say, join nato. do we have any guarantees that such

a ukraine will be accepted into nato. do we have any guarantees? that such ukraine will be perceived as a state that can receive effective security guarantees, or whether ukraine with such an agreement with russia will hang for a long time in a gray zone, together, by the way, with other former soviet republics with which negotiations are currently underway , let's say about joining the european union with georgia and moldova until the territorial problems are finally settled, one way or another. putin may believe that he will make a strong move, if he does not have the forces for the whole of ukraine now, then at least he will make a peace agreement with ukraine, will ensure its long-term. detention in the so-called gray zone, and during this time the situation in the world, in the united states, in europe, may change, and putin will be able

to strike the next blow in this gray zone, when he is sure that the west does not want to help ukraine, or simply will not have the strength for it. in addition, there is another option, about which... we, too, should always remember the option of georgia. when the war ends with such, i would say, an incomplete decision, when the people are very traumatized by the war, and most of all they are afraid its repetition, because the war that happened will be such a trauma that will be experienced by generations of people. then , of course, people may come to power in such a country who , on the one hand, will not make any

drastic decisions regarding the restoration of relations with russia, but there are still no diplomatic relations between georgia and russia, and on the other hand, they will not go to a confrontation with russia so as not to make her angry, and in principle in such a... situation, putin has every chance, and this is khrystina, by the way, a very likely development of the situation in our country, in the following years after the war, so that no one would be particularly shocked that he established such indirect control over ukraine, but in fact, look, georgia received its candidate status for the european union, almost against the wishes of its own leaders. they did everything, so to speak, from the point of view of political gestures , from certain laws, remember, there was even

a scandal with the law on foreign agents, to the situation surrounding mikheil saakashvili, so that this status would not be granted to them, so when the president georgia went to campaign for this status, they even started the procedure of her impeachment. because they did not give her permission for a government official to start a series of visits with the aim of convincing european politicians that georgia received this status, and the european union gave it anyway, that is, society wants it, the authorities try not to take any drastic steps that will annoy russia, but together however... cannot say: we do not need the status of a candidate for membership of the european union, we want to be in the csto, but we are forced to arrange a holiday of their own supporters in honor

of the european status, but on this holiday the president of georgia, who made efforts to get this status, is greeted with insults and insults. here is a model of a post-war state acutely traumatized by the experience of war, and putin would certainly like to see such a ukraine. that is, in fact, we are talking about, if you will, the georgianization of post-war ukraine. if it was not possible to conquer, then one should try to marginalize, but in order to marginalize, of course, it is necessary to end the war in such a way that ukrainians clearly feel and trauma, and that they failed, despite the efforts, the sacrifices, the destruction, and did not manage to restore the territory. integrity of its own country, as georgia failed, as you know, georgia still does not control a large part of the territory of the former georgian ssr.

and this is putin's simple idea, i think he understood it, it is read, and putin will now, apart from military actions, from a political point of view, do everything possible to bring ukraine to exactly this state, because he has experience, he has already sees it happen in... the post-soviet space and he may want to repeat it, he may miscalculate, he has already miscalculated with ukraine more than once in all these plans, but i just want to explain to you how he can think when, uh, he sends signals about negotiations, and what, what might even a real suspension of the war be, if it happens, well, mr. vitaly, in your opinion with... what was the purpose of the visit to beijing by the prime minister of russia mikhail mishustin, where he met with the leader of xijin pinnem. it happened on december 20. leader

hello china. expansion of trade between the two countries, promised to strengthen ties with moscow, and in general expressed support for the russian people, emphasized the fact that in 2023 he met with the president of russia vladimir putin several times, and noted high-quality and high-level communication with the russian leadership. should we hurry and talk about the drive once again. the chinese leader and his sympathies, let's say, his pragmatic visions, are also in the direction of the russian federation. well, what does drift mean, christina? the drift happened a long time ago. the people's republic of china and the russian federation, allies and partners. and nothing changes here. another problem is that if you ask me about mishustin's visit to china, then from an economic point of view asking why he went there is the same as asking

why the head of some russian region, the altai territory or the novosibirsk region, arrived in moscow. to meet mishust. the problem is that the reorientation of the russian economy from the west to the east, which has really begun to take place in full swing, i would say after russia's great war against ukraine began, it did not lead to the results that were expected in the kremlin, in the kremlin they hoped to distribute, let's say, their new ties among several countries of the so-called global south, simply to reorient to the global south in order to diversify its economy, which stopped focusing on the united states of america and primarily on the european union, which was the main trading partner of russia until this time, but it turned out that the real replacement took place exclusively...

account of the people's republic of china, that practically all niches of the west in russia have been occupied by china, to the fate of india, other major players of the global south, brics member countries such as brazil, as the south african republic. there remains a rather small part of russia's trade with russia, mutual. china is russia's main economic partner. both for supplies to china and , most importantly, for supplies from china, so the prime minister of the russian federation, whose economy is so recklessly dependent on china, just needs to go on the carpet, it's just necessary to discuss how economic relations will look, especially since the ionization

of the russian economy is growing every month. russia, trying to abandon dependence on the dollar, transfers more and more of its calculations precisely in the yuan, and this also makes it a junior economic partner of the people's republic of china, because the people's republic of china, i apologize , does not trade in rubles, so in in this regard, it is simply a continuation, i would say, a strengthening of the ties that existed before between russia and by the people's republic of china, which intensified after the russian attack. on ukraine , which have become the ties of two really close, friendly, economically interdependent, but above all, russia depends on china, states that together will try to resist the russian, and russia and china, the influence of the united states of america and the european union, only with i would say, with this distinction, that at least for china itself, the idea

of ​​a multipolar world. which has been advancing for many years both in moscow and in beijing, since the time of boris yeltsin and his chinese respondents, is now replaced by the idea of ​​a bipolar world, in which the main forces are the united states of america and the people's republic of china, and it was the bipolar world that both chinese politicians and chinese experts talked about when the head of the people's republic of china xizen ping visited san francisco and held his summit with the president. of the united states of america by joseph biden. the only difference is that in this bipolar world, beijing naturally wants to represent the interests of moscow. and interested in the fact that russia and with its relations with the west, and its war in ukraine, and its other efforts to undermine the capabilities of the united states. because a weakened united states is much more likely to agree to chinese terms than.