in the red sea, in the indian ocean, and quite possibly in the mediterranean sea, there was already an attack on - well, an attack on the rigs, here are these gas production, israeli rigs in the mediterranean sea, one iraqi group , if i am not mistaken, katayebola did not take responsibility, the israelis are true this has not been confirmed, but nevertheless the war at sea, this is... now the focus is on hezbollah, hezbollah and israel are in a dynamic balance, and whether the operation will begin depends on a lot of factors, so far the sides are exchanging, well with such, let's say, proportional blows to each other, the iranians use hizballah as a means of pressuring israel to stop, hizbollah's threat to enter a full-scale war, this is... pressure on israel to stop

the operation in the gaza sector. ugh. well, that's not happening. hezbo presses, from time to time increases. about these days, when the negotiations were nearing completion and the situation was on the brink. casbola increased the shelling, for example, yes, to demonstrate that agree to stop the operation. well, how is the situation rolled back, the number of shelling decreased. it. this is a purely instrumental use of this organization. mr. serhiy, i can't help but ask. the fact is that just this week russian prime minister mykhailo mishustin visited beijing, he met with chinese president xi jinping, and the press service of the chinese ministry of foreign affairs actually states that china continues to support the people.

of the russian federation, i don't know what they mean by this, but does it mean a rapprochement with russia, after all that we seen in the context of contacts, including leaders, the leader of china with, for example, the president of the united states, joseph biden, well, it would seem to understand that the economic stability of china is now above all else for its leader, well, in fact, the chinaists, so i do not take to comment on such things, in addition to what i heard from our chinese, ukrainian, chinese scholars that in china they are looking closely at mishustin as a partner, and what does this mean, well, obviously russia needs something, they come, they ask for something from china, what is their response to this received and what the further development of events will be, i do not know, perhaps mishuscin came to apologize for the fact that the boom was blocked and...

logistics from china via russia by rail was interrupted, as is known, the boom was blocked as a result of a successful operation by one of the special services of ukraine. ugh. well, maybe china is far away, but the russian federation, which remains our, unfortunately, close, north-eastern neighbor, is within reach. we hope that in the near future it will be possible to talk about weakening its positions. thank you, mr. sergey, for inclusion, for a professional assessment of the situation. serhii danilov, deputy director of the middle eastern research center, was in touch with us, and as promised, vitaly portnikov is joining us after a short break, i know you are waiting for the saturday political club. today we will talk about , in particular, this press conference of the president of ukraine and everything that was heard at it, about the challenges that in one way or another... relate

to the visions of the russian federation and its real capabilities, whether putin sincerely wants some negotiations right now with ukraine or with the civilized world, and the orban factor, who nevertheless agreed to a meeting with ukrainian president zelenskyi, these are literally a few topics that i will briefly announce to you before our conversation with vitaly portnikov, be the saturday political club, be with espresso, in a few we will meet in a moment. problems behind the joints limit movement, it is unpleasant and painful. strengthen them with dolgit joints. these are bags with collagen and vitamin c to restore articular cartilage. dolgit joints contributes to the normal functioning of the joints and has a positive effect on bone health. longitudinal joints improve motor functions with longitudinal joints.

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travels through the christmas cities of our country. very special guests and extremely warm conversations. december 24: celebrating christmas with espresso. kanal spresso and ukrainian pen present their own title project with myroslava barchuk. a series of conversations with ukrainian and western intellectuals who analyze and comment on the most relevant social debates. what kind of news will be analyzed this week's guests of the project and actually who will be the guest of the studio, we will find out already this sunday. significantly, the topics will be relevant, the guests special, proper names with myroslava barchuk, sunday 17:10 at espresso. we continue

the saturday political club on the espresso tv channel, and as promised, in the second part we talk with vitaly portnikov, who is in touch with the studio about the most important events of this week. mr. vitaly, i am glad to see you. see and hear mutual khrystyna. good evening. good evening, dear viewers. so. well, let's start with your permission, probably from the latest. in my opinion, two very, well, almost simultaneous news. one of them concerns the readiness of the russian federation to sever relations with the united states in the event of real confiscation of frozen russian assets for the benefit of our state, for the benefit of ukraine. that is, can we conclude that for putin and his entourage money still remains something of great importance, and whether in fact this need to have significant financial resources could, in your opinion, lead to the fact that putin

requires certain negotiations with regarding the situation with the war in ukraine, just such information appeared in her... from colleagues from the new york times. please. well, let's go in order. i think that when the russian federation threatens the united states with the termination of diplomatic relations and emphasizes that russia will retaliate against every country that will confiscate russian assets, as the press secretary of the president of the russian federation dmytro piskov said yesterday. it's not just about money. this is, so to speak, a change in the plans of the russian federation, which is not desirable for them. what is meant is the construction of a war of attrition, in a war of attrition, russia spends some of its resources, on the war, on the military-industrial complex, on large sums of money, which are spent, by the way, on the army, and along with this, the west also spends

its money and its resources, and ukraine spends its money and its resources, and there is, of course, the hope that western money, resources and ukrainian opportunities will run out... than the resources of the russian federation, here, when it comes to russian assets, it is proposed all to pay for the banquet with russian money, that is , russia is depleting its resources, its financial capabilities, and along with this , russian money is also on the other side, on both sides, russian money, and of course putin does not like it very much, because it turns out that he is for the war with ukraine , every year there will be a conditional fine of 50... 60, maybe 100 billion dollars, and this will mean that russia will not only spend its money on war, but that it will never see its assets that it hid in western banks and financial companies, of course not putin suits, because then it is not a war of

attrition, that is, it is a war of attrition, but it is a war of exhaustion exclusively of russian financial resources, the united states spends nothing, the european union nothing. they don't spend all ukrainian war expenses , putin pays, well, who will like it, so of course there are quite serious threats, so of course russia will think about how to legally stop this confiscation of assets, there is logic in this. as for the process of the so-called negotiations, which new york writes about times, this process, these signals have been talked about for a long time, because the intensification of conversations about russian assets, it happened just these weeks, against the background of these problems that arose with the vote in the united states congress, with what is happening today in the european union. around the hungarian position, and i personally

have been hearing for several months in a row about signals from the russian side that they want some consultation negotiations there, and not so much with ukraine, but with the west. but then again, you can even from this text in the new york times , we can see that we are talking about such negotiations, which will establish for russia, at least de facto, that it controls the occupied territories. that is, putin needs such a truce that will not allow him to lose even a meter of conquered territory, in this the philosophy of this is not the end of the war, but maybe the suspension of the war, because in any other case, putin, of course, will never agree to any real discussion of possibilities suspension of war. this is the first point. the second point, putin really needs these signals, that he is ready for a truce, to create

conflicts among, let's say, allies, between ukraine and the west, primarily among various groups of western politicians, because some will say: well , you see, the offensive of the ukrainian armed forces did not lead to the liberation of these territories , we have spent tens of billions of dollars, we will continue to spend tens of billions more. the ukrainian economy will collapse, and so it seems that we have a chance to leave under the control of russia what it already controls, and at the same time begin to restore the ukrainian economy economy, others will say: well, listen, but in this way we will agree with the fact that international law is destroyed, that one state can seize 20% of the territory of another by force and nothing, and then we will have to reckon with it, just as we did before. in fact, ukrainian politicians, of course, knowing the public's sentiments, the sociological ones, which are connected with

the fact that the majority of ukrainians believe that the end of the war can only be an exit to the borders of 1991, cannot agree to such conditions either, and this is a must for putin a prerequisite, this is also necessary to realize that without the agreement, if not formal, then actual, of the west and ukraine, so that that part of the ukrainian territory... which today is controlled by moscow, remains under its control, he will not allow any negotiations. and another very important point, which is also mentioned in this text in the new york times, which also corresponds to reality. russia does not want to talk with ukraine. ukraine as a subject of politics, it does not see and will not see, this should be forgotten in principle. she wants to talk to the united states of america. and american journalists are basically right when they say that... the progress is that putin is no longer going to demand from the west to replace the ukrainian leadership. he

is ready, so to speak, to agree that the territory currently controlled by the legitimate ukrainian government will remain under its control, under the control of this particular administration, which is in kyiv, and not some puppet administration that he prepared for ukraine in february last year. but putin certainly wants to talk about it with the administration of the united states. for him negotiating partner, not ukraine at all , and this is another signal, he seems to be saying to the administration of joseph biden, if you do not want to negotiate with me, these are your personal problems, then i will continue the war, pending the new american administration, with whom i i will agree much more comfortably than with you, or if you are lucky enough to win the election, i will talk to you already, but now you have a chance before the presidential... race in the united states, it is comfortable for me and for myself to finish this story,

if of course you need to end the war before the elections, if not, then there will be completely different agreements after the presidential elections in the united states, maybe on different terms, but this will no longer be your problem, you will, in principle, be left with the legacy of the unwon war in ukraine, that's how it is , i would say a game, and one must... always remember that when putin even offers some signals through some people, through some representatives of his special services, it is not necessarily a real offer to conduct negotiations, it is very often. absolutely so an obvious calculation to confuse everyone in order to recruit, because recruitment, from the point of view of the logic of any intelligence officer, is simply the creation of such conditions under which the recruited person did not do what was in his interests, well, these are absolutely clear methods of putin, which we have been watching all the time he

was in the position of the president of the russian federation, and we must say that they nerdlessly lead to a positive result for him. ugh, and there will be, so you have to be on guard. mr. vitaly, you and i have talked many times in this studio about the fact that there is no putin he is interested in some kind of control over pieces, albeit large, of the zaporizhia and kherson regions, he does not think much about the well-being of the people who live in these territories, or the conditional residents of avdiyivka, he is interested in complete control over ukraine, over its statehood, i would even say the destruction of its statehood, i.e. lead to the fact that such a concept does not exist in principle. all of a sudden we are talking about the fact that he can agree even on ukraine in the format where now from actually along the line where the battles are now taking place and under by the leadership of the legally elected ukrainian

government and president. well, it doesn't look like a position of strength. you know, about which we constantly talked , you and i noted that putin does not need any negotiations, because he now has a strong position, there is no question that he may not need negotiations, but he may need to talk about negotiations in order to achieve some kind of discord between those who will master him, this is the first moment, another moment, putin , after all, we did not think about him, a political figure, a professional, if not very highly strategic. let him be the one who tries to live in his illusions when it comes to ukraine and other former soviet republics, but putin knows for sure that this is simply the result, not even of his great talent, but of his experience as the president of russia next summer he will be 25 years old, he is in the highest positions in the russian federation, so he knows very well that

politics is the art of the possible. he made an attempt to quickly capture this ukraine, well , it must be frankly said that this attempt was not succeeded to be sure that the war of attrition, especially if it will be fought, as we talked with you, all non-russian money, will lead to such a takeover, this is also a rather conditional idea, it may come out in 3-4-5 years, or maybe and no, and always. the question is, how will the russian federation itself live in this situation, because you and i know a lot about russia, but we can imagine that the russian elites can now simply seek a suspension of such an acute confrontation. this is the next point, also very important. maybe putin believe that if he now secures this 20%

of the territory and insures himself against various mishaps, for example, an attempt by the ukrainian troops to try to liberate this territory again with new weapons that they can get, this will be an intermediate result, until the next the result will be able to be returned , say, after 2025, because you and i understand each other perfectly, and by the way, new york times journalists on this matter quote the president of latvia, mr. rinkevich, who says that it is possible to sign any... any agreements with russia, russia can make these agreements absolutely easy to forget the next day, when she will have a new chance for aggression, so there is also a question here, even if we imagine that some armistice will be signed, not next year, but 2025, 2026, under the control of russia,

as putin wants, 20% of ukrainian... territory will remain, which means that the ukrainian state, which will control the other 80%, will be able to, say, join nato. do we have any guarantees that such a ukraine will be accepted into nato. do we have any guarantees that such a ukraine will be perceived as a state that can receive effective guarantees security is it ukraine? with such an agreement with russia , it will hang in the gray zone for a long time, along with, by the way, other former soviet republics with which negotiations are currently underway, let's say about joining the european union. union with georgia and moldova, until the territorial problems are finally settled, one way or another. putin may believe that he will make a strong move,

if he does not have the forces for all of ukraine now, then at least he will ensure a long-term stay in the so-called gray zone by a peace agreement with ukraine, and during this time he can the situation in the world, in the united states, will change. in europe, and putin will be able to strike the next blow in this gray zone, when he is sure that the west either does not want to help ukraine, or simply will not have the strength to do so. in addition, there is another option that we should always remember. option of georgia. when the war ends like this. i would say, until the end of an incomplete solution, when the people are very traumatized by the war,

and most of all they fear its repetition, because the war that was will become such a trauma, which will be experienced later by generations of people, then, of course, people may come to power in such a country, who on the one hand will not. some earth-shattering decisions regarding the restoration of relations with russia, but there are still no diplomatic relations between georgia and russia, and on the other hand, they will not go to a confrontation with russia so as not to anger it, and in principle, in such a situation, putin has every chance , and this is christian, by the way, a very likely development of the situation in our country in the following years. so that no one would be particularly shocked that he established such indirect control over ukraine.

in fact, look, georgia received its candidate status for the european union almost against the will of its own leaders. they have, so to speak, done everything in terms of political gestures from certain laws. remember, there was even a scandal with the law on foreign agents, before the situation surrounding mikheil saakashvili, so that this status was not granted to them, so when the president of georgia went to campaign for this status, they even started the procedure for her impeachment, because they did not give her permission for a government official to start a series of visits with the aim of... convincing european politicians that georgia received this status, and the european union gave it anyway, that is, society wants it, the authorities

are trying not to take any drastic steps that will annoy russia, but at the same time , i cannot say that we do not need the status of a candidate for membership of the european union, we want to be in the csto, but we are forced to organize a holiday for our own supporters. in honor of the european status, but on this holiday the president of georgia, who made efforts to to get this status, they are greeted with insults and insults. here is a model of a post-war state, acutely traumatized by the experience of the war, and putin would certainly like to see such a ukraine, that is , in fact, we are talking about, if you will , the georgianization of post-war ukraine, if it was not... conquered, then one should try to marginalize it, but for that, in order to marginalize, of course, it is necessary to end the war in such a way that ukrainians clearly feel both

the trauma and the fact that, despite efforts, sacrifices, destruction, they did not manage to restore the territorial integrity of their own country, as it was not possible for georgia, as you know, georgia also still does not control a large part of the territory of the former. of the ssr and this is putin's simple idea, i think he understood it, it is read, and putin will now, apart from military actions, from a political point of view, do everything possible to bring ukraine to exactly this state, because he has experience, he already sees , as it happens in the post-soviet space, and he may want to repeat it. he can miscalculate. he has already miscalculated with ukraine, more than once. all of these have their own plans, but i just want to explain to you how he can think when he sends signals about negotiations and what, what might be real.

the goal of even a real suspension of war, if it were to happen. well, mr. vitaly, what do you think was the purpose of russian prime minister mikhail mishustin's visit to beijing, where he met with leader xijin pinn. it happened on december 20. the leader of the people's republic of china welcomed the expansion of trade between the two countries and promised to strengthen ties with moscow. well, in general, he expressed his support. to the russian people, emphasized that in in the 23rd year, he met with the president of russia vladimir putin several times, and notes the high-quality and high-level communication with the russian leadership. should we hurry and talk about once again the drift of the chinese leader and his sympathies, let's say, his pragmatic visions, also towards

the russian ... federation, well, what does drift mean, christina, the drift happened a long time ago, the people's republic of china and the russian federation are allies and partner, and nothing changes here. another problem is that if you ask me about mishustin's visit to china, from an economic point of view, asking why he came there is the same as asking why the head of some russian region, the altai territory or the novosibirsk region, came to moscow to meet with mishustin. the problem is that the reorientation of the russian economy from the west to the east, which really began to take place in full swing, i would say, after the great war between russia and ukraine began, did not lead to the results that the kremlin was hoping for. the kremlin hoped to distribute, so to speak, its new connections between several countries.

the so-called global south, simply to reorient to the global south in order to diversify its economy, which stopped focusing on the united states of america and, first of all, on the european union, which was the main trading partner of russia until that time, but it turned out that the real replacement took place exclusively at the expense of the chinese people's republic, that almost all the western niches in russia have been occupied by china. to the fate of india, other major players in the global south, brics member countries such as brazil, as south african republic. there remains a rather small part of russia's trade with russia, mutual. china is russia's main economic partner, both in terms of supplies to china and, most importantly, in supplies from china. that's why the prime minister.

the russian federation, whose economy is so carelessly dependent on china, just needs to go on the carpet, just need to discuss how the economic relations will look, especially since the ionization of the russian economy is growing every month. russia, trying to abandon dependence on dollars is transferring more and more of its calculations specifically in yuan, and this also makes it... a junior economic partner of the people's republic of china, because the people's republic of china, i'm sorry, does not trade in rubles, so in that sense it's just a continuation , i would say, the strengthening of the ties that existed before between russia and the people's republic of china, which strengthened after russia's attack on ukraine, which became the ties of two really close, friendly, economically interdependent, but

primarily russia depends on. .. of china states that together russia and russia and china will try to resist the influence of the united states of america and the european union, only with the fact, i would say, with this difference that, at least for china itself , the idea of ​​a multipolar world, which has been promoted in moscow for many years, and in beijing since the time of boris yeltsin and his chinese counterparts. is now replaced by the idea of ​​a bipolar world, a world in which the main powers are the united states of america and the people's republic of china, and it is precisely the bipolar world that chinese politicians and chinese experts, when the president of the people's republic of china xizen ping visited san francisco and held his summit with the president of the united states of america, joseph biden, the only difference is that in this bipolar world.