tv [untitled] December 29, 2023 3:30am-4:01am EET
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which, accordingly, will provide ukraine with time , well, probably the most modern industrial complex on the european continent and the most powerful, but for this the manufacturers really need to understand that it is not they who will invest huge funds in production, but the biggest donors, such as the european union and the united states will be able to place a large, serious order to start these processes. therefore , in fact, one clings to another, and 50 billion from the european union and 60, almost two billion from the united states, they are in that among others, they are somewhat hindering the adoption of a final decision by international military, let's say, corporations about the deployment of military production in ukraine, but in reality. of course, we understand that this
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is the main priority, the european union understands that without the modernization of its own armed forces, in fact, they may not even be able to withstand a political confrontation with the russian federation, so now next year i would generally characterize it as a year of such a reboot of the military industry of the european continent, indeed. the challenges have become completely different there than 20-30 or 50 years ago, weapons are also used effectively in a completely different way, therefore the solutions must also be different, we, of course, from our side are interested in the fact that this production is mostly in ukraine, with a high level of localization, and to ensure the needs of the general staff and the armed forces of ukraine in key aspects. well, by the way, weapons,
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by the way, at the press conference, the president of ukraine zelensky mentioned for a million drones, well, it is that, it is the consumable material that is actually needed in large quantities at the front, which, on the one hand , saves the lives of our soldiers, and on the other hand, can cause very serious damage to high-value enemy equipment. by the way, the cabinet of ministers already commented on this figure , and by the way, on our broadcast, we also discussed how realistic it is to make a million drones, and how it will actually affect the front line, the approximate calculations are yes, a thousand drones are needed per month for one brigade , respectively, if we take there are a hundred such brigades, then we understand that these are approximately, of course, very rough. bills it's
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for 10 months, it's for good use of drones, about what we can really get out. igor, summarizing this topic, two two aspects, what two aspects, it should be as unified as possible according to needs, yes, there are corresponding combat, there is reconnaissance and so on, and there should really be a lot of them in military units, because drone operators have to be, not to pity each of them, as it happened. before, yes there is a serious procedure is being written off, that is why they even emphasized drones, let's say, provided by volunteers, in order not to deal with this bureaucracy, that is, the soldier should really be freed from this bureaucratic red tape, but should focus on increasing the quality of his military skills, according to oleksiy, as they say, as they say, military acquaintances, clerks - it turns out, too. the last man now in
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each battalion, yes, because there is a lot of paper, paper work, he must be a machine gunner and a drone operator at the same time, sometimes yes, sometimes this, but this requires leave, ihor, summing up, we see that ukraine is trying to develop its own industrial complex, and there is, of course, little information about this for obvious reasons, but joint cooperation with european manufacturers, localized even in our neighbors, is an important aspect. so far we've seen how the patriots work, we 've seen how the nasams, the irises, the hymers work, we haven't seen one important aspect yet, uh, specifically for the american military doctrine, that's the f16, like dominance, well because everything else that i listed, proved to be effective against russian weapons, what are your expectations for the f-16 personally, does anyone think it's going to be kind of a game changer, i... in my opinion, if
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you're talking about the first half of 2024, i think that the f- 16 but will narrow the russian aviation’s ability to attack the front with missiles , that is, they will simply be so afraid: it’s one thing to place an air defense system somewhere that covers a certain square there, and another thing is to send the f-16 mobile accordingly, which due to advanced radar technology and due to the necessary rockets, they will just be shoot down the russian aircraft, and they won't even see it, that's it. indeed, it can save a lot of our lives, and it will strengthen and we will get a certain cumulative effect with what we are already doing, accordingly , engineering fortifications along the front line, it will help a lot, but in parallel with that, of course, it still depends on quantity,
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we already hear there from the netherlands that 18 pieces, 16 are being prepared, but in general, we remember that our air force said, well, it would be good there in the region of two... pieces, so let's see when we can go to these 200 pieces, what they can do, this will really become a certain game changer, it would be yes, 200 is good, but but it talks about two or three squadrons, so that's up to 50, that's for a start, well as a matter of fact, let's talk about 48, something like that, well, actually, well , at the end of the month, the russians started talking after the downing of their five sus, about the fact that they destroyed six; they forget about the sus. near odeshchyna, who also flew to launch cabs, they, well, in fact the same situation, and they say that already shot down or destroyed 4f-16 in the same way near odeshchyna, well, in principle, it is not new that they destroy large quantities of imaginary equipment. at the end of this broadcast hour
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, let's talk more about political aspects, because the 23rd year was full, during which the verkhovna rada adopted a number of strategically important laws, the most important of which was the european integration package. documents necessary to confirm ukraine's status as a candidate for eu membership. thanks to this, the european union has officially started accession negotiations with ukraine. parliamentarians significantly strengthened the anti-corruption vertical, in particular , the staff was expanded, an increase was acquired, and the powers of the sap and the nck were increased. 18 laws adopted by the council related to the strengthening of the social sphere, protection of the rights of military personnel, veterans, women, and labor migrants. the council paid special attention to strengthening the country's defense capabilities. thus, in the 2024 budget , a record amount of uah 1.690 billion has been laid for security and the military-industrial complex. in addition, the parliament legalized additional payments to military personnel and transferred the tax on the incomes of military personnel from local sources budgets to the state, and these funds will go to
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the production of weapons and drones. oleksiy, how would you rate the parliamentarians for a year of work, intensive work in places, but time. sometimes it was difficult and certain scandals accompanied this work? you know, i am still on the fact, yes, judging on the fact, i will not dwell on certain political scandals, because we are looking at the strategic perspective, after all, namely, the european integration laws became the basis for so that we actually receive an invitation. to the official negotiations on the european union on the way to full membership , as far as i'm concerned, this is the key criterion, this is the fulfillment of our short-term vision, yes, if you like, that first of all we need to open
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this path and win this political and diplomatic victory, and we see that in in this process, first of all, the verkhovna rada showed some unity even there. elements of the opzzh there, they did not interfere with what was prohibited, but the council in principle, well there, sometimes with a constitutional majority, and sometimes there close to it, accepted everything that was necessary, and not just there, so to speak, without discussions, no, it was debated, every change was passed by committee, every change was passed hugely. the number of references, so in fact i rate the work of this supreme military council for this year, well, by four and a plus according to the epidemiological system, they really, when the verkhovna rada shows such unity, then there is no shame for such a council, and when we have
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, accordingly, somewhere safe the aspect is stronger when politicians and politicians wake up in them, and this from... i really don’t want to see it like this, well, there are already questions about what the people’s elected representatives themselves will announce for the next year, in particular this law on mobilization, but let's already discuss about... about it constructively, when we see the law, this, well, at least the draft. mr. oleksiy, thank you for joining our broadcast. oleksiy boryachenko, candidate of political sciences, head of the international association of small communities. ihor chalenko, head of the center for analysis and strategies, was with us, my guest. igor, it is obvious that the biggest achievement of the ukrainian parliament and ukrainian diplomacy is the start of official negotiations with the eu regarding accession. but here it is important aspect. ms. stefanishyna, who takes care of this issue. from the cabinet of ministers said that in fact, according to her forecasts, at this rate in a few years we will be ready to join
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the european union, but we need to look at it, try, at least look at it from the point of view of brussels, the european union also needs to prepare for the entry of such a large country , even now in a state of war, and then hopefully already in a state of recovery after this war, so that it will be a soft entry without upheavals, at least that's how it is. in brussels and so preparing for this, how long do you think brussels needs to prepare? i would very much like the next convocation of the european parliament , which will be elected in june 24, to prepare its homework at the end of its term and do it, including ukraine's accession to the eu, that is, the horizon is still up to 30 we are looking at the next year, well, 5 years is realistic. because in fact the countries, on average, entered there for about seven years, there are different tracks, but we will talk there in
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seven years, when we are told about the year 2030, well i wouldn't say that it is so far away , for some reason here, you know, everyone thinks, for example, 2000 is 13-14 years there, but that was recently there, but in fact we already understand that almost 10 years have passed, and therefore it is not far from the 30th year, but it is extremely positive that the ukrainian authorities, the government, are setting themselves a task. do your part of the homework in two years, this will strengthen the position of ukraine, including in the intra-european discourse, but of course we have to continue negotiations with all member countries, because we understand that ukraine's entry into the eu will change the balance of power, and many are afraid of just that, for example, ireland, recently there was information, they are not directly afraid of ukraine, there, but, again. they say that there may be problems in our market there due to the shift of balances there from
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germany and france, here and there, well, that is , certain frictions are already beginning within the union itself, that is, these are all points that the union really has to correct, precisely the next convocation of the european parliament, i'm sure they can do it, you said about neighbors, obviously, well, at least maybe he is preparing, or we can definitely say we are discussing. indeed, the summit of viktor orban and volodymyr zelensky, well, that is, it is not a meeting on the sidelines that happened, but a planned, specifically prepared meeting, and we understand how negotiations of this level are prepared. first, there are negotiations, a final agreement is being prepared, if we are already in the process of preparing such a summit, then what can they talk about? ukraine is, of course, interested in hungary's position on ukraine's accession to the euros. and on the budget of 50 billion euros from of the european union, and what is hungary interested in,
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apart from orban's statements, in which they can put pressure on ukraine? well, actually they are interested in the energy market now, that is, we remember that since the beginning of the 24th year, the transit of russian gas through the territory of ukraine has been stopped, including it going to hungary, well, i think that maybe someone somewhere is thinking, maybe this channel will remain, but this is just an assumption, and of course this is uninterrupted work on... the ukrainian section of the druzhba highway, which also goes to hungary and as an exemption from sanctions for them for their supply, not simply , that is, ukraine, in fact, ukraine is a very powerful tool, it is an oil pipeline of friendship, and solely because of the desire, after all, for european counterparties to continue to get the opportunity to work, we leave it in an effective form, but it is clear that and hungary should also show, well, at least not anti-ukrainian policy, what we have been observing for many months, of course. we understand that hungary is constantly pressuring us on the topic of the hungarian
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national community, and i think that this the issue really needs to be resolved, because ukraine has done a lot, a lot , they have made changes in the language and educational components, and in general we are showing that in fact, i would honestly tell you that in reality , the regulations on national minorities issued today in hungary are worse , than in ukraine similarly, and therefore we can even say that a... why is it that in hungary, for example, minorities are called only those who have lived for 100 years, why is this happening? well, i think there are actually quite a few nuances, and we have to show hungary. that ukraine in the eu will be an independent player and not an executor of someone else's will. hungary is often afraid, it tries to find allies, and therefore we will simply show that ukraine is really a subject, both in the european part of the world and in general on the geopolitical map. we are waiting, yes, the 24th promises to be full of various events, well, at least the first quarter,
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the first quarter, waiting for financial assistance and various negotiations and the beginning of negotiations with the european union. development union this is the framework that is being talked about both in kyiv and in brussels. thank you, mr. ihor, for this rich conversation, ihor chalenko, head of the analysis and strategy center, was with me this hour. in this part, we will talk about aviation, because there are reasons and expectations, in particular, we will talk about the f-16, and, of course, about the so-called dry landing pad. but let's start with this information: on christmas, the air defense of ukraine destroyed it immediately. two enemy fighter-bombers su-34 and su-30. the first became known on the eve of the destruction the second was confirmed by the general staff of the armed forces on the morning of december 25. i am providing su-34 - one of the newest and most expensive russian combat aircraft. it is worth more than 50 million dollars. it is the su-34 that drop guided aerial bombs on ukrainian settlements, which leads to
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large-scale destruction and casualties among the civilian population. the so-30 is an air superiority aircraft. russia has been using them since the first day of the full-scale invasion to cover its strike aircraft and hit ground targets. well , a few days earlier to ukrainian soldiers managed to shoot down as many as three russian su-34 fighter-bombers. i am glad to welcome to my studio anatoly khrapchynskyi, an aviation expert. mr. anatoly, glad to see you. congratulations. let's actually start with this, because the russian public, at first, talking about the axis three su-34, then two more su-34. the 34th and 30th began to say that they had destroyed a patriot in response, 4 f16s and something else. but, as the military says, they are still trying to understand how the ukrainian defense forces shot down their fighter jets. we will not to help, but can it be more
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massive, because recently such things happened in the north of ukraine. yes. these helicopters were means of radio-electronic warfare, which actually had to create obstacles in order not to see these planes, well, that is, but as we can see, it worked very well, and in this case today, as they say, five planes , which were destroyed, these are not some isolated operations, but we already see the statistics and... it was in different directions, earlier we saw 124 downed russians on the board direction in the area of zmyniy, therefore, we can actually talk about what is currently happening, so to speak, the cancellation of the information about the tactical and technical characteristics of the su-34s themselves in the information space, why, because in fact we see that the crew did not make it there in some cases
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to evacuate, i.e. to eject , that is why we can actually say that... all the tactical and technical characteristics declared in the su-34 most likely do not correspond to reality, because we see that they go astray very easily , that is, it is like the myth of the second army of the world, it is meant about russian, then also russian equipment , it is so good, not as high-quality as the russians say about it, well, i always give an example that, for example, if the americans created a tamramst, they expected that five tanks would reach the target, if the russians created tanks, then they calculate that... out of 100 tanks, at least five will reach the goal, that is , mass, due to this, they mostly had some effect, in fact, yes, the characteristics do not correspond to reality, but there are many of them. well, in general, if we talk about the situation in the air, because an important aspect, i think it is worth emphasizing, when after the beginning of russian aggression in 2014, many, i remember,
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even in my studies, experts said that russia is still waging a war. against us on the ground without, well, in fact without the use in isolated cases of aviation components or missiles, air-air or surface-to-air, and this is really what happened, everything on the ground was a battle, and there was a threat, or even a question to the military, to the leadership of the ukrainian state , and will we be able to stop the russian air raid, february march of the 22nd year also showed that we can hold back. although russia prevails, now we are talking about achieving a certain parity, well, yes, obviously, without the f-16, we cannot achieve this, well, at the expense of that development in general . defense, which we have now, we see one hundred percent, almost 100% training on shaheds, this is due to mobile groups and our own weapons, which we have, then we see
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90% training on cruise missiles, that is , we have coped with this influx, and now we see that we are beginning to reap the russian harvest aviation from the borders in order to simplify our work on the battlefield, but actually, if we talk about the f-16, the f-16 will complement our countermeasures. well, the defense will help not only, for example, protect the airspace of ukraine from cruise missiles or other air targets there, but also will be able to control the immediate front line and ensure a certain distance that will be protected from the sky, that is, we have now shown the russians that we have a certain territory that is protected by our own ground air defense means, and plus the f-16 - we are increasing there is still a distance, that is... by calculating the possible distances, the possible practice of the same f-16s on enemy territory, we can say that the f-16 will already be easier, for example, to destroy
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the logistics of the russians, even in the same crimea, that is, the f-16 - we can break through the air gate to crimea, because the impression now, if we focus our attention purely on the peninsula, ukrainian drones drove away the black sea from the black sea. navy of the russian federation, but still we see that they use the peninsula and the military base there were cases, there were even operations, the main command of intelligence, landings, but mostly it was the task of strikes, well, either with missiles, or with other types of means, yes, which are not disclosed now, with the f16, we can talk about what, say, will storm, yes, the shadow curtain will still be used. more actively and possibly even further not only, say, at the headquarters of the black sea fleet in sevastopol, here it must be understood that the storm shadow cannot be used on the f-16
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, in fact, the f-16 has its own missile, which we can, they are more long-range, stormshadow can be hung on saabs, or other european aircraft, rafal, what is there rafal, gripens. we are already communicating, but here it must be understood that gripan works with taurus, for example, and here he can say that if we start talking about gripan, then we understand that it will be necessary to connect germany regarding the transfer of tauruses to us, who are still silent on this topic, yes, if f16 will use jason missiles, then they will be able to knock out logistics on the peninsula and on the whole temporarily. on the territory, we we understand that we will not be able to use these missiles on the territory of russia, because there is such a need in fact, for political reasons we promised that western equipment will not
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hit, but here we are already saying, here we must already increase our own production of long-range uavs , but the f-16s are going to add to the picture that we have right now and be such a big plus for everybody in all of these things really, because if you say... about what 's happening right now in the background, on the battlefield, yeah, we see such big strategic steps, but which ones have such in the future the results, such as, for example, the black sea fleet was withdrawn from the equator, transported and so on, we see that they are knocking out there, for example, saka airfields, other airfields there, cotton is happening, cotton is happening right next to it on the territory of russia, well, this at the expense of our bepola, the air-tactical is knocked out there. aviation is there, that is, we are, so to speak, telling the enemy that here and there parity in this air space will be in our favor, well, so that they do not move there, well
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, actually, what is probably happening, there are such trends with the su-34, let's talk about this in a little more detail, because the russian occupiers have reduced the airstrikes of ukraine, air bomb strikes, after the defense forces in the south of ukraine shot down three su-34 aircraft at the same time, such observations. here is the study of war. let me remind you that every day ukrainian soldiers managed to shoot down as many as three russian su-34 fighter-bombers. well, the spokesman of the air force of the armed forces of ukraine, yuriy ignat, commented on the rumors that western fighter jets may arrive in ukraine before the new year. which the sense of delivering planes so that they stand here under the enemy's sights? we have to wait for everything to be ready. both the infrastructure and the pilots who are currently undergoing training with instructors, as well as the aviation engineering staff. this is one of the main ones. what is needed to complete the process, we take anyway to fight on it, not to make it stand. mr. anatoly, well, here it is worth noting that about the patriots, when we expected them, we expected them, we
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learned already by the result. of their effective work, yes, maybe it will be the same with the f-16, you said about the prospects, but here an important aspect, the f-16s will not directly protect the ukrainian territory from ballistic missiles and missiles launched by russia, that is , they cannot counter these missiles, but must counter the methods of launching these missiles, can this happen? and look, if we are talking about ballistics, yes, we are currently working very hard on ballistics. ok patriot, but recently the president visiting the united states invited a system called that, it's for anti-ballistics, it knocks down high, at the height of the rocket and there is a danger of hitting there, for example, some debris, but then, if we talk directly again about the use of cabs in the su-34, on average , the cab is launched from a distance of about 60 km in order to be there and well, we
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well, we understand that... russia used kabi exclusively as a terrorist, because they didn't care where he hit, but there was more damage, that's why, for example, returning again to the tactics and technical characteristics, that is , the su-34 we we understand that they have a distance for these 60 km it is guaranteed, when they see some air targets around them, that they cannot be shot down, ugh, that is, now, if they are shot down, then we extend about 100 km there, we already take the front-line zone, we understand that it will be protected on ... of defense, and this is not about patriot, maybe it's irises , maybe it's some other systems that were handed over to us, and we just don't disclose it, in fact, maybe it's some of our own developments, because we know that, for example, some manpads were converted into aim missiles, if not, the american aim9 i'm wrong, or aim7, that is, they made such a complex solution, that is, old soviet equipment works with american missiles, this franken project, yes.
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here he is, he works and he gives some benefit, maybe this is exactly what is used , that is, well, we can show a lot, but we will not say that it will help the enemy, obviously, but if we talk like this, well, this is how the media talked about the frankinsam project , this is a combination of really, as you said, soviet still installations and western missiles, as far as it removes the problem with shells, because i i recall that about six months ago such statements were already heard. that we have an extremely limited supply of buk and s-300 missiles, given that they are russian-made, we actually do not have a supplier, and it is obvious that this is exactly what pushed ukrainian developers to cooperate with american or western ones to develop this system, we have removed this problem now, but look at the account, sorry , because this is the basis, it is actually the basis of the fact that we remember that we asked for these missiles from
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ukraine, which once belonged to... warsaw treaty, that is, now we get , we have access to american missiles, which , by the way, if we talk about aam directly, there are actually a lot of them, so i think that for a certain period we have definitely removed this problem, but again - still, our internal development should be aimed at creating missiles for air defense directly, which would be much cheaper to kill, well, we are not talking about targets, because... here, too, a certain assessment should understand that we can shoot down there, for example , with an expensive rocket to save a certain house with civilians, yes, or we can save some enterprise that produces these very missiles, you see, i mean, it was not really a criticism, but probably such a pragmatic military math that when we shoot down the shaheds with missiles, it is effective, it saves lives, protects the infrastructure, but these
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missiles... could be used in the future against something bigger, against bigger targets, you said the statistics for the shaheds, but can we talk about missiles, that in principle we are gradually closing down the main facilities, because it's not a secret, well, we are we can even look according to the statistics, which western samples we received, that it is russia that is attacking, so obviously it is the capital, obviously it is the port infrastructure in the south. well, old kostiantyn, these are the last months, just one of the top goals, probably for the russians, and look, if we speak directly, in fact, in ukraine, at the moment , a very powerful anti-aircraft defense has been built in ukraine, which is crazy, and at the expense of, for example , the same mobile groups that use small arms, we shoot down most of the shaheds, so it's much cheaper, than we would use against.
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