[000:00:00;00] moldova, georgia, bosnia and herzegovina received euro integration prospects, bosnia and herzegovina may get the opportunity to hold negotiations if it meets the terms of the negotiations, so it is a step forward in the case of each individual country , of course, but there is a trend and there is a signal, political a signal from the european union that they are ready to accept into their ranks countries that, some of them are very traumatized by the russian federation, well... simply because of territorial integrity or non-integrity, this is an important point, because let's be in general, if it were not for russia's attack on ukraine, the european integration of ukraine, georgia and moldova could only be discussed after the process of european integration of the countries of the western balkans has ended, by the way, i have always said for years that when we talk about our european

integration. first, the process of integration of the western balkans must end, which is unknown when it will end, and then it will be possible to talk about the post-soviet space, and that in order for it to be different, something like this needs to happen, which we do not even want think now, because there are no objective prospects for it. and here it is, unfortunately, it happened, this is a war, a war that forced the west to be more serious. to look towards the post-soviet space and towards the aspirations of those peoples who would like to be part of the european family, and these are primarily ukraine, georgia and moldova, and i will remind you that back when the eastern partnership initiative was being created, and the initiators, by the way, were the then minister of foreign affairs of sweden karl bilt and the then minister of foreign affairs of poland radyslaw sikorski, who returned to his position in the new government of donald tusk, the idea

was precisely to... not get anywhere, something like a club of soviet republics is being created for us, which we have to sit and not worry about, and even the association agreement did not significantly change anything from this point of view, and now rodoslav syakorsky, one of the most active supporters of the european integration of ukraine, together with his prime minister and president anzhimduyu. and if you ask him why you needed the eastern partnership, he will say to accelerate the process of european integration ukraine, i predicted everything, because that's how politicians always do everything. predicted, only johnson did not predict brexit in this aspect, well, okay, he did not predict, he became the prime minister of great britain, would you like to become the prime minister of great britain? no, but that's a different story, it's strange, because it's the first time i've seen a woman who doesn't want to be, you don't want to be a member of the verkhovna rada, but i would become the prime minister of great britain, a member of the european parliament, i don't mind either, right? well, but anyway, so in that

regard, i'd have to say it's... pretty good no, i just thought that after margaret thatcher , every opportunity to show femininity and political abilities, and why not goldameyer, maybe this is my idol after all, more elegant than margarichyn, no? well, it's a delicacy, you know? well, really, that’s another conversation we have, in any case, just simply become a goldimeer, become a must-be, become a grandmother, buy yourself an appropriate avosko, i just don’t see you like that, well, let me live to this moment, i have the goal is to live up to it. but in any case, if we speak seriously, then er, this is also a huge step forward, the very fact that we are candidates for membership of the european union, so many countries have been candidates for many years, but they are still part of this space, these are joint meetings, these are summits or not with some countries there outside, by the countries that will be in, this is money for candidate countries, this is

change. legislation is a process, well, these are completely different possibilities from the point of view of economic and political cooperation there, and everyone just understands where the end is, by the way, this end will depend on us to a large extent account, because turkey in principle stopped changing its legislation at some point, it stopped not negotiations, but the process of european integration , because its new leadership, when it came to power... recep and erdogan made another, if you will, geopolitical choice , not even for the benefit of someone else , for the benefit of turkey, that is, for turkey to be an alternative power by itself, there is the west, there is the east and there is turkey, well, by the way, as it was during the ottoman empire, it was so, yes, and erdoğan sees politics this way, no one said that one of his heirs will not return to

the idea of ​​participation, it's hard to say, but... you know, the experiment is still needed, the european union is still, if you will, such a fortress of christian civilizations, when the european union will... eventually accept albania and bosnia and herzegovina, uh , we'll see what europe will look like, it will be the first states with a huge muslim population, not migrants, but autochthonous inhabitants of both bosnia and albania, who will be part of the european family, and it can be to a certain measure the answer to the question, what will happen to... turkey in the future from its european integration, because for now we are talking about it only theoretically, also from the point of view of civilization, because it has not happened yet, but maybe be, because of all the countries of the western balkans, it is albania

that shows the fastest progress in terms of reforms, i hope that this country, together with north macedonia, will quickly be able to overcome this path, but the important thing here is that this war... showed that these processes can develop in parallel. who would have thought that the federal chancellor of austria will set the conditions for ukraine and moldova to agree to negotiations, proposals for the start of negotiations for bosnia and herzegovina. in principle, it should not have been the same, because everyone understood perfectly well that before this balkan process ends, the ukrainian and moldovan ones will not begin. but you are right that there are quite serious questions for the future, but this is a question for the future, what to do with... ukraine, moldova and georgia, i also think about it all the time, that it is a very serious problem. let's take a short break, and in the second part of this conversation, we will talk about expectations for 2024, and in general, we will

try somewhat ungratefully, as always , to predict what we should do, how we should live. this tingling and crawling of ants occurs spontaneously and disturbs you. the dolgit antineuralgia complex helps to normalize the functioning of the nervous system. dolgit antineuralgia helps to return to usual activities without tingling and numbness in the limbs. long-acting antineuralgia capsules. helping your nervous system. try flebodia 600. pink french pills for acute hemorrhoids plepodia 600. treat hemorrhoids without any side effects. o. went for a walk, there is not enough ordinary water here, drink reo, i am saving myself, reo, you are ready, dear, ready, i took reo. reo - water for special medical purposes. ordinary things

become unreal. heavy bags, not for my sore back. for back pain, try dolgit cream. long-acting cream relieves pain, reduces swelling and improves joint mobility. with cream. what do you want, i'll pick up doolgit - the only yellow cream for pain in the joints and back, we continue the saturday political club on the tv channel espresso, khrystyna yatskiv, congratulations. portnikov, we continue to talk about the trends of 2023 and plans for the 24th. october 2023 was marked by a new war in the middle east, it seems to me that it is necessary to stop a little, because it is a parallel

war with what is happening on our territory, and it is a certain burden on the united states, as a country from which a lot depends, both in that and in another case. i have often... asked, mr. vitaly, in our programs, whether it is possible to deploy such a, you know, textbook, third world, as we imagine it there with nuclear winters, explosions and so on, and you recently pointed out that it is unlikely, rather, it will be a combination of such smaller conflicts, meat grinders, and our task is not to be one of them, to do everything to stop to be one of them, if we talk about the middle east and again about the world trends that i am showing. south america, maybe i don't know if we can say we're halfway there, you know, to this kind of conflicted world, i think we're already there, you know, i'm so several times i stood there on the balcony, from

which i could see the old jerusalem, and i always thought there, when i looked at all this, how possible is it that i will one day see this landscape already in a peaceful, settled state. e-e conflict in a peaceful city, in which it will be absolutely obvious that yore and arabs can live side by side and not perceive each other as enemies, as a danger. and so it went on for decades, until now i can only watch it on plasma television, and i always thought that the middle eastern the conflict is just a textbook of how different forces can use some dangerous tendencies to achieve some of their results, uh, and you said a parallel war, and it seems to me that it's not quite ... exactly a characteristic, it not a parallel war, it is a continuation of this war.

i think i told you that in 2022, in march , i think i wrote a text to the israeli media in which i predicted this conflict, and precisely because i assumed that it would be a continuation of the ukrainian conflict, and i did not agreed with those of my colleagues in israel, with experts and with politicians who said that this is another war, huh. and now in israel, by the way, they don't think that this is a parallel war, which is why israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu can afford a harsh tone in his conversations with vladimir putin, because everyone understands that it is one and the same the conflict situation, and by and large, when iranian drones appeared in the sky over ukraine, i also asked, what is this coincidence, do you think that they just supply russia with weapons of action? they still use all this as a training

ground, they generally look at how the ukrainian army operates, how the russian army operates in the proposed conditions, because by and large these are armies of different mobilization and military-technical potential, how can any army in the military-technical sense much weaker than the attacker, to stop his actions, i think that... they still really wanted to see, luckily they just didn’t have the chance to see how the street battles would take place, ugh, they needed a war for kyiv and also drones under during such a war, but could not, excuse me , could mariupol demonstrate this to them, to a certain extent mariupol and azovstal could also demonstrate this, because they wanted to see how the hamasites could act in such a situation of serious urban development, and how they could for a long time hold certain positions. what can the israelis do in

the situation of hamas holding such positions, they absolutely needed all this and they needed their military equipment to be present in one way or another, so that they also understood its capabilities. i said that this is not an accident, and indeed, by and large, the war in the middle east is also an illustration of the wrong understanding of danger, because many people said before this war, the same thing that was said to the ukrainian authorities before putin's attack, that the most dangerous thing that can be done for an aggressor , potential, is to create an illusion of weakness, because then you may win, but you will not be able to make up for all that you have lost. here , prime minister of israel benjamin netanyahu was told: the question is not in the court. reform, the question is that you split, mr. prime minister,

israeli society, that in order to stay in power, you establish coalitions with the most marginal political forces on the right, the flank, which in turn also divides israelis, that you already hear reservists saying that they will not go to the defense army , these are slogans, but if our enemy hears these slogans, he can think. then perhaps now is the time to strike, if the jewish state is as weak as it has ever been in its history, then at least we can deal it a blow that we could never deal in other situations, and this is also the weakness of institutions, because when institutions begin to be managed by ignoramuses, when a conflict is artificially created between ignoramuses and professionals, as was the case with the far-right ministers in netanyahu's cabinet, then this is a real... the enemy has the illusion that he will quickly defeat you will destroy, at least

give you the kind of blow that in another situation could never have been delivered, and that we did not have such a situation before 2022, we had exactly the same situation, we explained why, let's say, dangerous to hold a meeting in the normandy format in paris, because it will create an absolutely unrealistic... expectation of ukraine's capitulation in vladimir putin, and it is not known how he will react to the unpreparedness of our new government for such a capitulation. why is it at all dangerous to carry out this whole process of seeking dialogue with the dpr and lpr, because russia will create the illusion that it is luring us into traps, and if we do not fall into these traps, this in turn will create the idea of ​​the need

to resolve the conflict by force, because it is weak people, they try to come to an agreement with us, but they can't, we will push them. this very situation of institutionalism, when people who had nothing to do with them were appointed to leading positions in critical structures, already gave the russians the impression that they would be able to easily take control of the situation, and when we know this famous phrase that if we strengthened the army, we could not build roads, we need several. well , i didn't tell her that, and this phrase, one way or another, illustrates not only the ukrainian attitude authorities to the situation, it illustrates the attitude of the russian authorities to the situation as well, they are building roads there, not strengthening the army, we need to quickly resolve this issue, because if the government there changes and those who

will strengthen the army and not build roads come, this is electoral democracy, they have already seen how the rating of the current president decreases before the war. then it will be more difficult for us to capture them, so we need this moment now, they generally perceived the election of volodymyr zelenskyi and the first years of his rule as as a moment of absolute weakness and imbalance of the ukrainian state, and such also in israel, although there was a very experienced politician who ruled there all his life and in ukraine, although new faces came to power here and there, the enemy was in control, the illusion of weakness was created . states, and he adopted his plans, get out of this illusion, and so this means that we can get out of this situation in israel and in ukraine, but at what cost? the price is really unaffordable for both countries. israel is forced to fight for dozens of days.

ugh. this is absolutely not characteristic of conflicts in the near east. as a rule, the hot phase of the war. in the middle eastern conflicts , it ends literally in a few days , well, in a few weeks, ugh, it brings irreparable losses to the economy, it is not known when the israeli economy will return to its pre-war level , they do not count how many people, the same for ukraine, we can stop navala , but we already live in a world where the economy is in a ruined state, we have a few industries left, and that's all... well, that's all a price, a price for our lack of understanding, for our and for the israeli lack of understanding of security, that is why i believe that this is the continuation of wars, that dictatorships, they are sensitive to such things, you understand, this is a dictator, an authoritarian ruler in general , he has the logic of a predator, if he smells blood, he goes there, you understand, because if blood is already

being shed, it will be easier to finish it, this is a very simple logic, and it is the same for yakha sinvaar, it is the same for vladimir putin. they just feel this smell, they love the taste of blood, is it possible to create a situation in which there will be so much of this blood that even putin choked, or is it, let's say, just my , some such visions that i mean, returning to the topic of conflicts in the world, is it possible or possible to achieve a situation when there will be so much straw on a... camel that the last straw will break his back, it is desirable that it was again a camel in the form of conditional china or russia, and not the west. well , for that, the west has to act like authoritarian regimes, yes, and for that we have to go back to the logic of the cold war, but even during

the cold war, the west did not want to directly interfere in some, say, areas of responsibility of moscow or beijing. but there was no event in vietnam. i was in vietnam i was in vietnam when vietnam was occupying cambodia the west didn't take part in the vietnam-china war and when the west tried to take part here is the war in vietnam let's say it's real participation in the event, it led to stunning results, to the actual defeat of the united states, it must be clearly stated that the united states was defeated in the vietnam war, because the republic of south vietnam, which was non-communist, it... was destroyed by the communists, and this is the question of whether the west can act like russia or even china, because the price of human life is different, the americans at the time asked why we are fighting in etnami , what we are doing there, it was also a problem by and large, it weakened the communist

camp, but it also weakened america , obvious conclusions were drawn from this, afghanistan, where there were american troops, too, because how, how can we here interfere with vladimir putin, it means that we should think about some conflicts that weaken the russian regime itself. create conflict situations for him, well, relatively speaking, these should be conflicts on the territory of russia itself, to be precise to the end, but the west will not do this, because it is outside the political ethics of the west, these will be events in the congress, the question why you got there, how did you give the money, can i have a question, please, nato bombing of yugoslavia, nato bombing of yugoslavia. could happen in a situation, i would say, when the relations between the west and russia and china were

different than now, and when everyone knew for sure that russia would act exclusively by political methods, and when the russian leadership tried to convince slobodan milosevic to come to some kind of agreement with the west, as is known, viktor chornomyrden also met... with slobodan milosevic before this nato operation, and how yevhen primakov met with addam hussein. that is, but they did not use political methods. but i want to remind you, if you have already mentioned the nato bombing of yugoslavia, about what happened on the first day of this operation? about a symbolic event, about the collapse of the plane. prime minister of the russian federation yevgeny primakov, who was flying to the united states for

talks with the vice president of the united states, albert gore. when primakov learned that a decision had been made to bomb yugoslavia, he ordered the crew to change course and take a course not for washington, but for moscow. and from this moment it begins. countdown in the new russian foreign policy, anti-western, frankly anti-western, and this was even before the moment when on the political scene of russia vladimir putin appeared, at the moment when yevgeny primakov turned his plane around, putin was one of the high-ranking russian officials, but definitely not the person who should lead the country, before him there was the prime ministership of serhii stepashin and eventually. putin himself, a little in terms of time, a lot in terms of events, and by and large we can clearly say that

when nato decided that it could act in such a way as to stop the genocide, in order to prove to authoritarian regimes that it would not talk to them only political methods, russia took advantage of this opportunity to say that it too will now do. not only by political methods. i have always reminded that moscow will mirror any actions of the civilized world. even if these actions are justified. it is no coincidence that vladimir putin constantly cites the example of kosovo. on the one hand, we perfectly understand that kosovo is a territory where genocide took place, in fact, slobotan milosevic decided to expel all albanians. from the territory of their long-term residence, some lived more, some lived less , but we are talking about that century, and this was the main

idea of ​​serbian chauvinism, to drive the albanians out of kosovo, because kosovo is serbia and there is nothing, there is nothing for the albanians to do there, but the subsequent recognition of the independence of kosovo by the united states states, other countries of the world, created a precedent for russia. which putin decided to use when in 2008 he recognized the independence of abkhazia, south ossetia, and said that abkhazia was worse than kosovo, georgia also wanted to commit genocides in south ossetia there ossetia, abkhazia bombarded tskynval with rockets, that georgians never in their lives expelled the abkhazians from georgia, south ossetia, from abkhazia, south ossetia, it was the authorities of these regions who expelled ethnic georgians. and put them in a situation where they turned into refugees at the age of ten, but nevertheless, nevertheless, it was a precedent, and then putin generally

liked it, you see, this very idea... they liked it, because he is not just annexed crimea and other regions of ukraine, he also held referendums there, under the guise of expression of will, yes, referendums, and declared them independent states, crimea declared itself an independent state, and then held a referendum, the donetsk and luhansk people's regions of the republic, the so-called declared themselves independent states, and then held a referendum as independent states on joining... russia, that is, he all the time, both zaporizhia and kherson regions, they did not even change their names, it was such a comedy, an independent state, zaporizhia region enters russia, well, what am i talking about, he all the time uses this mechanism, because even the legislation of the russian federation prohibits annexing regions of other countries, until now, according to russian legislation, it is not possible

to annex the region of ukraine or kazakhstan, but... an independent state, well, it is independent, we recognized its independence and then she accepted that what is the problem? this is also not the first time: latvia, lithuania and estonia were admitted to the soviet union, but the vinsk people's republic, its small khural in 1944 decided to join the rsfsr as an autonomous region, there was not even a referendum there, but it was quasi. an independent state, because you understand that the tuvan people's republic as a state was recognized only by the soviet union and the mongolian people's republic, as the dpr and the lpr, and that is, they simply annexed the territory that, from the point of view of international law, on all maps up to 40 there what there in the fourth year, were considered part of china, atom and all, that is, nothing new happened, just what we saw in asia, they started

to do in europe, everything. that is, it turns out that the western world needs to be as careful as possible in every move, because putin has a habit of monkeying around and using it to his advantage. you can be careless, but you can understand the consequences, you just have to understand the consequences. when you make the first move in a match, you have to understand how this opponent of yours will go on the chessboard, huh, and think, what are you going to do next? well, the situation is the same. now you and i have come to a new move of chess, when the west speaks, and we don't care, but you create all these disabled countries, annex their territories, and we will still negotiate with them about the european union and nato, you will not stop us, and we will accept some into nato, and we will accept some into nato, and they are near your borders , uh, yes, well, near the borders is finland, part of which

territory was already stolen in the 40s of the last century, but it's like, well... here the question arises, you see, so actually, i don't know how the west can act in a way that russia or china cannot, but in any case can carry out some certain economic test, you also have to be realistic, the west always had exaggerated expectations of its own economic pressure, and this was largely caused by the fact that the west was always dealing with communist regimes and with a planned economy, and to understand that we are dealing with the market, i it seems that this understanding is only now coming, but iran has been living under western sanctions for decades, it is completely disconnected from swift, unlike russia, there are no credit cards, there is no that, this, the third, the fifth, the 10th,

the 25th -th, while iran continues to produce drone, i'm not saying that... about the fact that he maintains a certain stability in the country itself, despite the constant protests of the population, he participates in wars as an equal player, he has a quasi-army in the palestinian authority and in lebanon , it produces drones, it has missile technology, why did they give such sanctions then , they were calculated so that iran would abandon its aggressive policy, go to negotiations with the civilized world, if iran can exist for decades... in such a situation, how much the russian federation will exist, this is a great question, especially since it turns out that the market allows the supply of products to some other side, uh, what if you decide that there are many knives that will not start anything, and you simply decide that you will sell oil and gas to china and india , then you can live with a poor population to infinity, you will have enough resources for many years, and then