which was submitted by the government, and now it turns out that the servants of the people are preparing another bill of their own, that is, that there is no communication, that someone had to come out and say: yes, we are conducting this mobilization, we need this mobilization, we are canceling such and such, such , and we take responsibility for it, because there is no other way out, either ukraine will exist, or it will not exist, well, i would call it a total failure of communication, because such things really need to be discussed at the stage of their preparation, and we are leaving several weeks as at least, they saw it exclusively due to the publications of individual people's deputies who made such intrusions, it is very difficult to name it in another way, on their facebook pages or during some few broadcasts and talked about the most controversial principles, well, of the draft law that was being prepared, and here it is a question of political responsibility, those people who are entrusted with politicians, who are entrusted with this responsibility should...

not avoid it, take it upon themselves, perfectly understanding at the same time that this can lead to the drop in their rating, well, it’s a simple question , who are these people, there’s really no need to invent anything here, since we have, first of all, the constitution of ukraine, where, if i’m not mistaken, it is clearly stated in the 106th article, who in our country makes announcements regarding mobilization and to a certain extent this process is controlled and coordinated by the president of ukraine, in the current law on mobile. it is also stipulated that this should be done by the president of ukraine, the cabinet of ministers, the relevant ministry and the minister and the council of national security and defense, i.e. in in principle, all these people should have communicated and should have explained what was happening, what was going to happen and what it could lead to in principle, well, the attempt to shift responsibility entirely to the military, i think, it did not go too far, because, well, the first explanation from the commander-in-chief. were clear enough and

many people made all the necessary conclusions for themselves, and secondly, you know, it was simply, or rather unwillingness, it was such a stereotype that our politicians have that citizens do not understand much about who what answers, in fact, they know this very well, and it played a bad joke precisely with the authorities and immediately brought down any possible positive perception of some norms that are in this law, and here really, so that there would not be these queues at the border. it is necessary now, well, when representatives of the authorities who have something to do with this speak, to call a spade a spade, to give arguments. and also, by the way, one very interesting point, including using your own example, to show that there is nothing terrible or extraordinary in this, and they are exactly the same people, which, if necessary, will fulfill all the prescriptions laid down in the new law. here i mostly mean the same people's deputies, but, unfortunately, we do not see or hear of such initiatives.

and we see an attempt to say now that it was a false start, we will have some new bill, and we will discuss it accordingly, but the problem is that to break the negative wave from the appearance of the first edition, well, it is extremely difficult, moreover, the question even not in queues at the border, because if you look at the interest rate in the relationship there to the total population of ukraine, well, we understand that very , very few people are trying to leave there now, and the situation is also unclear with regard to whether to let them out or not, when some additional bans are created that are not regulated by legislation, well, this is also not beneficial in principle for the law that we will be considering today and for which the verkhovna rada will simply be forced to vote, we understand that this is something that we will not have to bypass, so now it would be two weeks are not bad to spend on consultations with all interested parties, and by the way, returning to what we started with, is it possible to replace mobilization there with a tax and for military

conscripts, this is also a question of consultations by the interested party, according to the employers , that is, ask them, conduct some kind of, i don't know , there will be a round table, a press conference, where the president, the secretary of the national security council, the relevant minister will be there, they will discuss these issues, give answers , it seems to me that then the attitude of many ukrainians would change, especially if they explained that we are not talking about some total things that will affect absolutely everyone, but it will be a very balanced, very...commented story, and it will be done, well, as openly as possible and in accordance with the current legislation, but judging by everything , i am sorry to say that, like most of my colleagues, so far we do not see such political courage in our leaders, which is most likely due to the fact that they are primarily thinking about future ratings than about , that now there is a problem, and this problem will have to be solved anyway, by the way, mr. igor, you already mentioned the ratings at the end of 23'. 2018 dem initiative

published a rating among politicians, ukrainians most trust the head of mykolaiv ova vitaly kim 47.7% president. minister of foreign affairs dmytro kuleba has 31.3%. anti-rating leaders are oleksiy aristovych, -73.6%. yuri boyko - 75.2% and yulia tymoshenko - 76.5%. like you, mr. igor, as a person who understands very well. on politics and political technologies, how do you generally perceive the appearance of such ratings, as far as this section gives understanding of how society reacts to certain politicians, to the authorities, who for some reason

overtook volodymyr zelenskyi here, although it is clear who is in charge of the mykolaiv regional military administration under volodymyr zelenskyi. much more responsibility, much more , let's say, responsibility to western partners, that is, he does tens, probably times more than kim, why kim won in this rating, and look, he won because he remains one today, probably not many an aggregator of positive news, and all the things that directly concern him, they, well, he and they are positive, by the way, here you can draw a certain parallel with the leader of the anti-rating. by the same aristovych, although i don’t really want to mention him, but this is an indicative story, when a person produced exclusively positive news, he had one attitude, when he started saying completely different things, the attitude changed radically, so i am not really surprised by kim’s leadership, since he

distances himself from some as much as possible negative things, and this brings a certain , let's say there result, these ratings, they are generally ratings of the moment, it is clear that the situation is changing very dynamically in our country now... and in a month we can see a completely different picture, because here we have to understand the target audience, and you need to understand how the questions were formulated and how many people were interviewed, in which regions, and so on, well, for me, for example, there is a certain wonder that in such ratings, sometimes we do not see the military at all, some say that the military cannot be included there, because they are not politicians, not public figures, but they are officials, they occupy certain positions, and it is strange to talk about trust in... and not to specify the specific names of people who represent the armed forces there at some managerial level, therefore, we need to be very calm about the ratings now, they will change dozens of times, but the most important thing here is that the politicians themselves understand that they don't have to worry, i don't know, drink heart

drops there, if they see that they have the rating dropped by 20 or so percent, as far as i understand, this is a big problem for the office of the president, who are very dependent on these ratings, they... constantly lose something there, they have to constantly take a leading position, but when they realize that even with these ratings that are falling, everything at the same time, the same president is very popular there, if you compare him with, for example, even his european colleagues, maybe then they will be more calm about some things, and they will remember one very simple truth that ratings can to fall, and to grow, but in order for them to grow, sometimes you have to allow them to fall to a certain extent in order to push back and then... go up, if this does not happen, well, of course, then we will have very half-hearted solutions, which in as a result, these ratings will be buried, and in general , the 24th year, from the point of view of the level of trust in specific political figures, i think it will be clearly not positive, that is, the ratings will continue to fall, and who

will be the first to understand what this means it's okay, but there are certain advantages will receive, and those who will exclusively look at these ratings, believe me, they will end up very badly. thank you sir. thank you igor for the conversation , it was igor reiterovich, a political scientist, and i will remind you, friends, that we continue to work live on the tv channel, as well as on our platforms on youtube and facebook, for those who are currently watching us on youtube, there are still a few seconds, one more minute on the air, you can vote in our poll, we ask you about whether mobilization can be replaced by an additional tax on conscripts, and this is the question we put... to those who watch us on tv. now we will look at the results of the survey that we had on tv. so, 28% believe that it is possible to replace such a tax with mobilization, 74% no, on youtube 33%

yes, 67% - no. well, these are the results of our poll today, friends, i say goodbye to you, see you tomorrow, take care of yourself and yours. dear friends, i wish you all the best, goodbye. there are discounts on avaamaris of 15% in the pharmacies of plantain pam and oskad. attention - an incredible novelty from unpack tv. super warm and very comfortable alaska boots style. perfect fit, water-repellent material and a feeling of warmth even in 30-degree frost. alaska stayle boots have a universal design and practical black color. therefore, they will fit both men and women. sizes from 36 to 40. sixth, so get two pairs for you and your husband. eternal zippers will ensure a perfect fit, even on

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presenters who have become like family to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima’s big broadcast, a project for intelligent and caring, in the evening for espresso. verdict with serhiy rudenko, from now on in a new two-hour format, even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests, foreign experts. inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you can express your opinion at any time of the day with the help of a telephone survey, turn on and turn on, the verdict with serhiy rudenko, every weekday from 8 to 10 p.m. espresso. the goal of the russians was the destruction of ukrainians, when

you talk about demography, you have to specify numbers: millions of people left for europe, and tens of thousands for the united states of america and canada. 7 million of the population are young women, people of working age and generally young people. 8 million people left ukraine, 4.5 million became internal migrants. the vast majority of ukrainians abroad are women under the age of 18. ukraine has no more than 33.8 million inhabitants, the crisis continues and the natural birth rate continues to fall. after the war, in fact, there will be the most difficult times. the lecture i will be giving now read, i will actually read, it is written here, which is unusual for me, i like to communicate and talk much more, but when you talk about demographics, you have to give numbers. we understand very well that we are entering a very difficult period. first of all, i am grateful to all of you, and to mr. igor and the entire teaching staff

of the university for the fact that he is studying, you are studying here, and there are many students in the corridors, this is always pleasing, because you know that many ukrainian universities, they remain in the offline form of education, a lot students and not only students is abroad, and how many of us will be after the war, how will we survive in this country, how will we pay pensions to our elderly people, how will we produce something in which... we will, what will happen in other countries, i will try to tell you about all this, it is not my main specialty, but i am a politician, yes, before, when i was engaged. management, and mr. igor talked a little about it, except for those channels that mr. igor mentioned, i remember when i created the stb tv channel from scratch, i also reformatted the ictv tv channel, informational agency unian, well, it so happened in my life that i had the good fortune to actually create the largest ukrainian media, that is , to shape the ukrainian media space, and i can talk about this from morning to night, it is a very

interesting and important topic, but now i understand that even this media that you see is very... there is nothing to live for, there is nothing to live for, because there is no advertising market, and there is no advertising market, because there are no consumers, and if there are no consumers, then there is no production, that everything is connected with each other, and here we go into this one period, volodymyr zelenskyi said that we are in the most difficult, last, but most difficult stage of the war, we do not know how long it will last, and i agree with vitaly portnikov, who spoke here before me, said that after the war, in fact, there will be the most difficult times, that's how we are worried about this and what we are coming to, i will talk about it now, so we start what is called a lecture, then i will flip, flip the pages, there is no department here, but i will try to depict the department with you communicate, you know, there is such a brilliant historian, timothy snyder, who wrote many beautiful books about ukraine,

one of them is called bloody lands, europe between hitler and stalin, and in this book snyder... writes that the goal of both hitler and stalin was actually to destroy, conquer and turn ukrainians into slaves. historians have calculated that in the period from the beginning of the first world war to stalin's death, every second man and every second woman died on the territory of ukraine. it is not for nothing that this territory of our ukraine is called bloody lands, another such. there is no part of the world where so many people die, maybe we are not very aware of it, now of course we are aware, because we ourselves live in a time of war, and what happens afterwards, then miraculously the ukrainian nation is restored, you know that at the end of the 91st year, ukrainians there were 52 million, although before that it was much less, because every

second person was actually destroyed, the modern ukrainian-russian war is definitely a war. for demographics, and after attacking ukraine in 2014, russia pursued several goals, namely to close our path to the european union and to nato, to seize our enterprises and use our human resources for the fact that there is depopulation in russia. this was openly stated by the then minister of development of the far east of the russian federation oleksandr galushka, and he considered ukrainians exclusively as a personnel reserve for the development of this region. on february 24 , a great war began, and so that you do not doubt, there was no other goal in russia than to conquer lands, take away enterprises, conquer territories, destroy or deport ukrainians. after all, they talk about it openly, if do you remember, there was such a publication on the russian state resource riya novosti,

by timofey sergeytsev, who actually wrote openly and frankly about it, it was absolutely fascist nazi. an article about russian peace, where it was directly stated that ukrainians should actually be exterminated. we were then divided into four categories: the london-based military research institute of russia, the royal united services institute, disclosed the details of the criminal plans in a famous report on the first six months of the war. in the first group, the russian occupiers included those who it is necessary to eliminate physically, to the second - those who need to be oppressed and suppressed. the third group consisted of so-called neutral citizens, whom they would count on. incline to cooperation. and the fourth is potential collaborators. there was a specific list of the first group, mostly they were maidan activists. all those people who were on the maidan and were recorded in this list were subject to physical destruction. the second category was planned to be identified by going around the settlements, then filtering camps were to be created for these people. after

filtering, particularly unreliable ones were planned to be deported to russia, ukraine. teachers and other officials imported from russia had to re-educate them. in fact , nothing has changed for ukrainians either from the period of liberated struggles of the 17th and 20th years, nor from the period of collectivization, nor from the period of the holodomor and full-scale stalinist repressions. in the course of genocidal operations, the russian empire, then called the soviet union, similarly divided ukrainians into different categories, and the first category was always to be destroyed. you know very well about the history of the shot. revival about the destruction of our elite, regardless, by the way, of political views, and this period of interwar socio-political thought is, unfortunately, very little studied in our country, heroic resistance... from the armed forces of ukraine and the entire ukrainian people broke these scenarios, but the tragedies of bucha, izyuma and mariupol demonstrated the seriousness of all these scenarios. seizure, deportation and

denationalization of ukrainian children. the international criminal court recognized this as a crime of genocide against the ukrainian nation. we must remember that although our losses on the fronts and in the body are terrible, we are not all died, millions of us have not died now, and millions will definitely not go to... or to the far east, we can say that in fact we this war, the war is still going on, and in fact we have already, we have not lost this war yet, we are still it has not been won, but we certainly have not lost it, there will be a ukrainian state and there will be a ukrainian nation, but millions of people left for europe, and tens of thousands for the united states of america and canada, and this is not an irreversible potential, because we have to think about how to return our compatriots to us is another matter remarks, for the first time in recent history of ukraine. we can plan and implement our own demographic policy based on our own goals and means of implementation and existing potential. at the same time, we must remember that

the prerequisite for the implementation of any policy is the construction of a successful european state, oh, they brought me the chair, thank you, thank you, well, now i will look like a real lecturer, and not here an impostor has come, eh , yes, therefore, therefore, achievements, er... achievements in demographic policy are possible only if we have peace, and peace is possible only if we become members of the european union and nato. so, this war rapidly, rapidly accelerated the process of population reduction. 10 years of war put us in front of the reality of a deep crisis, the analogy of which should be sought in the first half of the last century. some call it a disaster from which we will have a hard time getting out, if not impossible to get out at all. but when the paints are too thick. then paralysis of critical analysis and search for a way out of the situation may appear, this is us the search must be found, and my assessment is that the analysis of data on the birth rate in ukraine

and ukrainian women abroad show that the situation is serious, but a way out of it is possible, and now, as a real lecturer, i will go to the tables, so the change in the population of ukraine from 89 to 2001, these are official data from the state statistics service from... the number of our population is given without the occupied territories of crimea, donetsk, and luhansk regions. we actually don't know how many there are because of the last census was conducted back in 2001, and this is also surprising , because even in most countries censuses are conducted regularly, the fact that we, you know, how we determine the population of, for example, the capital city of kyiv, by the amount of bread consumed, and the population of ukrainians we determine by the number of mobile phone contacts. therefore, when we seriously talk about sociology, about who people will vote for, i am always very calm about it, especially in the pre-election period, simply because in order to

to do high-quality sociology, you just need to understand how many of us there are, and we do not fully understand this, ukraine has been at war for the 10th year, in 14-15 years russia occupied 7% of our territory, and actually lived on these territories. 7 million people, 7 million population, 1.5 million of our citizens left the occupied crimea and donbas and donbass and became internal migrants. added to this was significant migration to the eu after the 14th year, which is estimated at a total of one and a half million people. it is important to note that those people who leave are in mainly people, these are young women, these are people of working age and generally these are young people. there was a labor migration to the russian federation after the 14th year, we know about that too, and also part of the population left the occupied territories for russia, the russian authorities encouraged them with the prospects of a good life in siberia and the far east. i

remember even watching a film about a life that did not become good, of a woman who told, remember, about a boy who was tied up in panties by ukrainian soldiers and tortured, and then she left for the far east, and there was a big film about her life, where she lives in zlidnyi, but on... actually, there are quite a lot of such people. in january 2019, the government informed that, according to calculations based on available mobile phones, as of december 1, 2019, as of december 1, 2019 , 37,289 people permanently lived in the unoccupied territory at that time, not including people who permanently live abroad and in the occupied territories. the full-scale war caused the largest population movement in europe since world war ii and the post-war period migrations, in particular. at the end of the 22nd year, the un calculated that 8 million people left ukraine, now they remain abroad, more than

6 million, according to data. of the united nations, and according to the data of our government, another 45 million became internally displaced persons, that is, those people who moved from occupied or pro-front territories, including here to you in ivano-frankivsk. as a result, calculating the number of the existing population of ukraine using the 19th year method, government officials assume that there are no more than 33.8 million people in ukraine residents, taking into account the fact that the outflow of the population continues abroad, it can be assumed that living in neo-opup'. therefore, i refer to the data that i can make public, but as i said, there are no exact figures, this is a un survey, more than 85% of the refugees surveyed are women, so the vast majority of ukrainians abroad are women under the age of 18.

women and children under the age of 18, sorry, and this is confirmed by data from certain countries, germany, poland, the czech republic, italy, romania, bulgaria, 60% of 6-8 million people, this approximately 3.5 million women, and most of these women are women of reproductive age, that is , those who can bear children. this brings us to the key indicator for the topic of our discussion, which is called the fertility rate, this is the total ... fertility rate, this is an indicator of the fertility rate, which shows the average number of possible births for each woman between the ages of 15 and 49, regardless of external factors and mortality. for simple replacement of generations, this total birth rate has not be lower than 2.13, 2.15, since not all children live to adulthood, that is , we understand that if there is a father and a mother in the family,

then in order for fewer people to... become them, in they must have two children, explaining in this simple language. what was the birth rate in ukraine? here you can see data on the birth rate in ukraine. information has become widespread in the media that during the two years of the great war in ukraine , the fertility rate fell to the lowest level in the world. actually it's not like that, it's not true, because as i said, the calculation this indicator was conducted on an unreliable basis from the very beginning. theoretical population in unoccupied ukraine without crimea and donbass, but with zaporozhye and kherson oblast, as well as without taking into account this mass migration of women of reproductive age. so, we don't have real data. this is the following table: the sex-age structure of the population, but in general, everywhere in the world , more women are always born than men. in total, women of reproductive age from 15 to 49 years old, statistics counted more than 9 million

in the so-called zaporizhzhia, kherson oblast and essentially the entire luhansk region, about half of whom are abroad. so, when the real state is taken into account, then this coefficient will look different. why is this important? because only the real state of affairs can be the basis for analyzing the planning of state policy in the field of demography and evaluating its implementation. to better illustrate his theses, he will compare our situation with poland, whose population is 38 million. the conservative government of poland is right. justice for the improvement of the demographic situation in the country and the growth of the fertility rate, he did it alone of priorities, allocates large funds to help families with children, it is 500 zlotys per month for each child up to 18 years of age. it is interesting that this amount is covered only by the taxes of those ukrainians who work in poland, that is , by paying taxes there, they actually support the birth rate in poland, but not

only in this way. from the new year, this amount will be increased to 800 zlotys. in addition, schoolchildren are given funds for textbooks, meals in school canteens are free, and parents who send their children to kindergartens receive money from the local government. that is, you understand, you don't pay for kindergarten when you bring your child, but the state pays you when you bring your child to kindergarten. but does it help? surprisingly, it did not bring a positive result. despite the growth in the birth rate in the first two years of this 500+ program , we don't see results and now we look at the next table, this is a table about the birth rate in poland, and you see what is happening with the birth rate in poland, despite the policies that they have, it is worth paying attention , which is the proportion of births of ukrainian women in this statistic is very interesting, in the 17th year, ukrainian women who constantly pro...