it is as simple as that, but at the same time , he has a lot of supporters among voters, he is the only president in the history of the united states who has gone through the impeachment process twice, the courts are waiting for him now, but nevertheless, his electorate supports him, and trump has no doubt that he will win despite the challenges he faces, and if suddenly that happens and he faces defeat, please tell me who is now likely to be... the candidate to replace trump, who has the best chance? and from the republicans, you say? yes, yes yes. yes yes. well, i said , the former governor, former ambassador to the united nations, nika gela, who already speaks a lot in support of ukraine, that's actually enough, for those republicans, ukrainians here in america, that's enough, i know, get them interested, they 'll be interested in talking . with her, ah, the same, er

, well, and, we, we already know the name, the governor, er, desentis, from florida, who fell away, he was quite popular in the summer of soul, but we don't see that he will come out or even in second or third place in the first preliminary elections, and outside of that, there are candidates who have very few ratings right now in the statistics, but ... "they're looking at trump's court cases, and that's why they haven't dropped yet, because governor chris christie, formerly of new jersey, he said , he is being pressured to decline, but he says: "look, i would wait until the first court case, see if trump loses or wins, and then maybe i shouldn't refuse to become a candidate, maybe this candidate will drop out on his own, listen as much as

you can, but based on your analysis, his analytics, to claim that trump is beginning to be aped, copied, and his colleagues in the republican party, and even the democrats, and now i mean vivek ramaswamy, who began to say, unofficially, that if he is elected president, he will withdraw the states from nato, well, this song belongs to trump, and the second is robert kennedy jr. who is a democrat, but has support among republicans because of his views, who says: in 100 days, if i am elected president, i will end russia's war against ukraine, and he calls it a proxy war, that is, these theses, well, they lead one way or another to trump and to trumpists, in principle, how effective can such aping of trump by other presidential candidates be, and here are these two people and their chances, what do you think? these two people, they were the most

popular in life last summer, from the time they first became candidates in the summer, when they had all the interviews on tv channels, when they were active in the debates, after every debate on the republican side you saw how the rating of wabi fell, and what a lot people just hate him. and so it happened every year, in the summer before the elections, there will be some candidate who is popular, but specifically, when they are businessmen, when they are not professional politicians, when finally the public will learn who these people are, where they came from, that they're supporting, i think we're seeing with candidate marmaslami that he's already fallen so low that he's not even going to be

active in the next debate, and robert f. kennedy, jr., he also became quite popular last summer, had a lot interview, but then he agreed that he would an independent candidate, that is, he will not stand against president biden in the primaries of the democratic party, he will be independent, then he has a problem to become... the date and get permission to collect more than 50,000 signatures in each state, we need a team in each state, how he doesn't how he doesn't want to participate as a democrat in the democratic party it will all fall on him then and he didn't even qualify how as the last interviews i see him less than 20 states he got signatures then it's very difficult to become as independent candidate. and

and yes, well, how do people have such certain opinions, as you said, that trump is a monkey, we see how popular they are, it seems that only trump can have such... certain opinions and still support his rating, but since his victory in '16 we have to say he didn't win in '20 every single major candidate he supported in '18 they lost in '22 we don't know yet if he can go back to such a condition that he had in the 16th year, thank you, mr. andrii, for joining the broadcast, about your... analytics and comments andrii dobryanskyi is the director of communications at the ukrainian congressional committee of america, he was in charge of video communications. thanks! let's move from international politics to the economic course, moreover, there is much to talk about, because what can we all expect from the hryvnia exchange rate this year, how the national bank saved

the ukrainian economy last year, and what is the plan in case of a delay in financial assistance from western partners. he will tell us more about this and more in an exclusive interview. andriy pishnyi, head of the nbu. please. we beat up the results of the year 2023 and we will talk about money, about the exchange rate and about banks. well, in particular , we will discuss this with the head of the national bank of ukraine, andrii pyshnyi. i congratulate you. good evening. how do you assess the past year, what were the achievements, what was planned and what was not? unprecedented. responsible, incredibly difficult , full of challenges, a year when ukraine economically exceeded all expectations, you know, this is exactly what i hear, probably, if not the most, in the last few months,

when summing up the work that carried out by the national bank, the ukrainian government, the president of ukraine. at the beginning of the year, inflation is 26, economic growth in forecasts from -1 to +1 is zero, colossal uncertainty, a record discount rate, we are ending the year, growth at 5%, inflation at 5%. thanks to macro-financial stability and stability, the national bank was able to start the process faster. reduction of the discount rate, crediting is restored, at the same time, the risks that actually existed last year still exist. the national bank is always very objective, sometimes even conservatively, they don't like us very much for that,

assesses the current situation, and we always say, the war continues, there are still risks of rhythmicity, the arrival of international. financial aid, risks remain for public finances, because ukraine finances an absolutely unprecedented and filled with a huge number of unknowns in the war budget, and we manage to do it, instead, the joint results indicate that ukraine is adapting, the government is adapting, business is adapting, the population is adapting, we are succeeding to do... incredible things, to provide exchange rate stability, to keep gold and foreign exchange reserves at their maximum , so they are filled at the expense of international financial support, but this international financial support became possible thanks to the fact that the international monetary fund saw good governance,

saw that the government, the national bank can do the maximum possible, and it must be supported, but i think we... we will talk about this program again, because it is probably one of the most defining, key consequences of this year. actually, cooperation with the imf, last year we finished a monitoring program with the participation of the board of directors of the international monetary fund, which then in march turned into a program of extended financing in the amount of 15.6 billion. and received the third tranche under this program, the decision of the board of directors was made on december 11, 2023, and we are heading to the next revision, these are very important

things, because the war continues, we adapt, we learn, the risks are all around us in one way or another exist, uncertainty remains, but so does our stability and capacity... and to conclude, it is important to remember that in the agreement with the international monetary fund this is a memorandum, the word victory is mentioned twice. and the word recovery is mentioned 98 times. this means that during the past year we convinced even our international partners that everything we do should bring us closer to victory. and war is not a reason to forget that after our victory there will be restoration. when depends on the armed forces, and for that they need say thank you and bow low. yes, thanks to the armed forces everyone. who works for victory, but if you already started talking about international aid, then in 2023 it was

both rhythmic and sufficient, what should we expect in the 24th, what can we expect? yes, it was sufficient, but at the end of the year the national bank had to testify that the risks of rhythmicity materialized and... and this materialization undermined to a certain extent the receipt of those tranches that ukraine was counting on in january and february, after all, but not less, we remain optimistic, we see the situation, we understand that for a certain period of time ukraine will still have to support itself at the expense of its own resources, at the expense of its own sources, and here, by the way, also... an important aspect: in 2023, ukraine

essentially resumed functioning domestic debt market. this is a very important point, because domestic state loan bonds are when the state borrows from those who have money, including military bonds, it is a source at the expense of which the budgetary need is financed, it is a source at the expense of which repayment those obligations that were taken earlier, and this year the volume of these borrowings is twice as large as in the past, we have restored the functioning of the internal boron market, even in spite of the war, and this is actually very good news, which to some extent, in combination with a whole series of other measures that will be taken by the government and the national bank gives us the opportunity to talk about the fact that we... have a plan b, although i really don't like the wording plan b, you know, i think

it's a continuation of that plan of the systemic and comprehensive, which we followed throughout the year. we lived the year 2023 without a single hryvnia. the budget deficit is not financed by printing money, it was a strategic goal that i, as the head of the national bank and the team, set before ourselves, and we found a complete understanding in the economic bloc of the government about how important it is to abandon emission financing of the state budget deficit, and we were able to do it this year, i really hope that our measures will help us pass 2024 in the same way, but again, there are risks, i remain a conservative, and so... to a certain extent, i understand the essence of the processes taking place

around ukraine, but at the same time , we understand what measures can help us to contain the situation, but ukraine's critical dependence on international financial aid remains and there is no need to downplay the importance of this source, it is fundamentally important for us, because ukraine... due to a full-scale invasion , a third of the gross domestic product of 20% of the territory was lost, and the migration flow became the largest since the second world war, this is a huge, global catastrophe, from which ukraine continues to suffer. the emission is actually what many ukrainians are afraid of, you said that the risk is as high as it is, that the printing press will have to be turned on, under which... there is no need to be afraid of the emission, in general, the function of the national bank is that we are

the emission center, everyone money that was once printed in circulation depends on, in fact, where this emission is directed, how justified it is, currently we we believe that emission financing of the budget deficit in the existing economic and macroeconomic realities can significantly undermine macro-financial stability. the national bank in 2022, in 2023 did everything to ensure that the consequences of the unprecedented emission, and importantly, the forced emission of 2000. in the 22nd year, we were able to calm down, and they did not create destructive consequences for macro-financial stability, inflation in 2022, and high inflation at the beginning of this year, it is precisely the consequences of the fact that ukraine is financing the war budget was supposed to print 400 billion

uah in 2022, we got unemployment in 2022. at that time the amount of financial aid was $32 billion, but we got it at the end of the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, and it was necessary to live and defend and provide resistance for a whole year from the moment of the full-scale invasion, so it was necessary to really support the budget, which was done. then the program with the international monetary fund, effective interaction with our european...partners, and we also need to talk about that. the g7 countries have all joined the that the volume of financial support for ukraine in 2023 as of today reaches almost 43 billion dollars. international financial assistance for the next year, according to our base scenario of the national bank, should

be at least 38 billion dollars. and... it is important to ensure not only the volume, it is important to ensure the rhythm and timeliness of receipts, because the war budget, it cannot be put on hold, unfortunately, we must ensure the financing of social and military and defense needs, this is the priority for today. and there is a question that i actually saw in social networks, in the comments, this year, in ukraine, for the first time. there was a record volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of almost 42 billion dollars. why can't these funds be used if suddenly we don't receive the help we are counting on from western partners on time? these funds are used every day, because gold and foreign currency reserves are a tool at

the expense of which the national bank ensures exchange rate stability and covers ukraine's need for currency, after all. along with a third of the economy, as a result of a full-scale invasion, ukraine lost a significant part of its exports, logistical connections were essentially destroyed, logistical channels were blocked, they actually remain blocked on the western border, ukraine does not have free access, as it was before the war, because of this, in fact, we do not receive that stream. currency, which should be received by realizing our export opportunities, instead we have a colossal need for purchases, which means a demand for currency, because of this, by the way, the national bank is forced was the first day of the invasion to take anti-crisis measures and stop the capital flight, so

throughout the year, especially in 2023, we have almost...times amended our resolution that put these restrictions in place to ensure currency liberalization, but you are right gold and foreign exchange reserves are at their maximum, and ukraine , the national bank, use them every day to ensure exchange rate stability, through the intervention regime, precisely the intervention regime in the conditions, by the way, we, this is another achievement, very important, we abandoned fixed... exchange rate formation and went into the mode of controlled flexibility, when demand and supply began to determine the rate, from the point of view of our economic perspective, from the point of view of adaptation of ukrainian business, this is a very powerful and bold step, and by the way, this was especially discussed under during the meetings of the international

monetary fund and the world bank in marokesh, noting in fact to the whole world. the fact that the transition to a flexible exchange rate and the rejection of a fixed exchange rate formation in the conditions of war went smoothly, went properly without the corresponding losses in the exchange rate, which are provided, and the gold and currency reserves, last but not least, ensure this, and yes, in conditions when the risks for the ukrainian economy will grow and, god forbid , gold and currency will be realized. reserves are exactly what ukraine will be able to contain for a certain time, the corresponding stability and reduce the negative impact, but again... it is necessary to understand that they are exhaustive, we need a source of replenishment, in order for the gold and currency reserves to be on sufficient level in conditions when there will be no

the corresponding income, er, sufficient volume of international aid, we will again need to take anti-crisis measures, which will limit, which will again return us to anti-crisis. management regime, we have already passed this in the 22nd year, we have adapted, we were able to establish appropriate sources of international financial support, and for ukraine in war conditions this is very, very important, because today our budget receives taxes, business works, jobs are created, even despite the war, the ukrainian economy is functioning, but it is, and it should be admit, is critically dependent on... the level of international financial support, and especially in terms of financing our revolving, defense needs. you mentioned the exchange rate , it is something that interests absolutely all ukrainians, whether

they buy dollars or not, but they are interested, and for most of the year it was stable in our country, when it was released, it was released in a controlled manner, the hryvnia began to depreciate a little , what is this, is this a seasonal fluctuation, or is it like this... allow me, i do not agree with you, because if ukrainians wanted to buy, respectively, for the ukrainian hryvnia currency, they went to exchange offices and in exchange offices, the exchange rate was actually constantly in motion, then up, then down. please remember last october , the official exchange rate was fixed at uah 36.6, and exchange... points were selling at uah 41 to 42, so to say that the exchange rate was at the same level throughout the year is to a certain extent degree of exaggeration, but this is also, by

the way, a key point, we understand that the cash rate of the national currency and the american foreign currency, it was constantly floating, and the official the exchange rate was fixed, and due to this , a difference appeared, the so-called multiplicity of exchange rates, when there is an official exchange rate, there are several exchange rates, such as the interbank market exchange rate, the gray market exchange rate, respectively, the exchange rate offered at exchange offices, if this the difference is significant, there is so-called arbitrage, speculation and the impossibility of appropriately ensuring exchange rate stability and, what is important , forming... expectations, expectations of stability, and one of the tasks of the national bank was to reduce this difference, to remove the multiplicity of exchange rates, for now

the official rate is somewhere around 37 and four, the rate offered at exchange offices is somewhere around 37-8-38 hryvnias, the difference is no... this is, to a certain extent, the achievement we sought. you have the feeling that you can buy currency at any moment. we have removed the relevant restrictions on the amount of sales that banks can provide. but it is very important for us to maintain the attractiveness of the hryvnia as a savings tool. in this regard, i will explain why? because if you, receiving a salary in... feel that it loses its solvency and cannot be considered by you as a suitable means of saving, what will you do with it, take

it to the foreign exchange market and buy a dollar, where it comes from, gold and foreign reserves, at the expense of this the national bank should have given you the opportunity after all get a fair interest rate for your hryvnia savings and banks should have started offering you an interest rate on deposits that covers the level of inflation and gives you the possibility of that feeling, you know, of some confidence economic, the so-called premium, and currently we see that the volume of time deposits has increased by almost a third, 90% of all time deposits with terms of more than 3 months. this is a very important moment, because thanks to this, the national bank was able to start the implementation of the strategy of transition from a fixed exchange rate to

managed flexibility, because... hryvnia assets, your hryvnia became attractive, and now you decide whether to withdraw hryvnia or still count on 16% per annum, whether to withdraw the hryvnia and buy a dollar, which can actually fluctuate in both directions, how to revalue, so devalue, and you decide for yourself, this is really, in the conditions of war, a return to ... normal market conditions, when you do not make your financial decisions unilaterally under the pressure of anxiety, but have a choice that is built, based on macro-financial stability and exchange rate stability, is it possible to forecast the exchange rate for the 24th year? the national bank traditionally does not give forecasts about the exchange rate, but declares that we will effectively

ensure our mandate. price stability and exchange rate stability, optimistically, there is one more thing, the cabinet of ministers introduced on the bill on mobilization is being considered by the parliament, among other points banking restrictions are mentioned there, do you have an understanding of what it is about, or have you already been approached to develop it? i will tell you yes, we have taken note of this draft law. i think that in the process of working it out in the parliament, we should have discussions and an exchange of opinions. at the moment, it is necessary to understand that the question of mobilization does not fall under the competence of the national bank, it is the problem of the ministry of defense, the government, and the general staff. if there is a need, it is most likely will arise because the draft law does contain some clauses. we will take part in the discussion,

this... the discussion will be reasoned, as always, deep enough, and i am convinced, will lead us to the best version of the decision and wording of the draft law. thank you, andriy pishnyi, the head of the national bank of ukraine for the results of the 23rd year, well, about, including the plans for the 24th year. thanks. chevrons approaching victory. marines are not born, they become marines, they are made through constant training, support and help comrades and commanders. join the friendly family of brave in spirit and faithful to the oath sons and daughters of the motherland. beat the enemy

together with the best cossacks of our time. contact the representatives of the marine corps manpower and recruiting center in your rtcc and sp, or call us at the number on the screen. documentary trilogy. military intelligence of ukraine at sea, in the sky, on the ground. the most successful ukrainian counteroffensive of the entire war. so it will be with them. kharkiv is a truly ukrainian city. over 8,500 square... kilometers reclaimed, well we planned 200 kilometers less, about 400 settlements were liberated, almost 150,000 local civilians were saved , we were waiting for you, we were waiting for you, the kharkiv offensive operation is a military masterpiece of a strategic level, we are transferring intelligence data to the headquarters, the headquarters that control all this , it is an honor to thank all of you for...

liberating our state from the enemy. land, kharkiv counteroffensive. good morning to everyone who is awake at the moment and watching the telethon "edyni novini". we work for you and thank you for your trust. and we are the we channel ukraine. and in particular, here in the studio of mykyta mykhalov, olena chabak, we are starting this information hour. what are we going to talk about? to create an effective alliance that will put an end to the so-called axis of evil of the 21st century , mykhailo podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the president of ukraine, made such a call , because with its military support for russia, the dprk finally showed, he says, whose side it is taking in this unfair and unprovoked war against ukraine. according to podoliak, the moscow regime no longer hides its true secrets intentions and is not covered by myths about alleged denazification and so on. therefore, the entire civilized world...