7%, no, these are the results of a television poll. in 15 minutes we will have serhiy taran and oleksiy holobutskyi. don't switch, stay with us. what is happening in avdiivka and whether the armed forces of ukraine may find themselves in a trap there, we analyze in today's edition of bbc ukraine. i am olga polomaryuk. the russian military is trying to capture avdiyivka, throwing there... special forces and landing forces. ukraine is strengthening the city and probably strengthening the position of one of its best brigades, which is currently happening in the city and its surroundings. russian troops have been storming avdiivka since october. the city is trying to surround and cut the supply lines. in early february, russian television on...

announced that their troops had entered the outskirts of avdiyivka, but the ukrainian authorities denied the beginning of the fighting in the city and stated that the russian sabotage and intelligence group on the southern outskirts had already been pushed out. let's look at the map: avdiivka is not far from donetsk, only 13 km. the city is called the gateway to donbass. for four months, russian troops were unable to bypass and cut the lines supply of the ukrainian army, although they made their way even underground... underground. the armed forces of ukraine maintain the avdiiv coke plant. here it is on the map, as analysts of the community typstate write. russians are already in the private sector, the situation there is critical and chaotic. why do we talk about this movement in such detail? well, first of all, to understand what is happening in avdiivka, a city that was called one of the most fortified positions of the ukrainian army. secondly, to understand why these actions are dangerous. for

the ukrainian army and what's next, and here's how the situation is described by my colleague, bbc correspondent oleg chernysh. according to our information, several groups of the russian military were able to advance in the south of avdiivka, and also just a few days ago, they were able to advance into the urban development in the north of the city, this creates an extremely dangerous situation for the ukrainian garrison holding avdiivka, because if... the plan the russians to completely surround the city and capture it did not work, and they switched to another plan, they are now trying to cut off pieces of the ukrainian group in avdiivka, i.e. to cut off the southern grouping from the northern one, which is held by the avdiiv coke plant. at the moment, the situation is very unstable, it changes almost every day, the ukrainians, the ukrainian military are trying to drive the russians out of the urban development, but according to... our data at the moment it has not

succeeded and in principle it is russian, the russian attacks in avdiivka continue and they are trying as they can the leader of avdiyivka , vitaly barabash, tells us to capture the entire city before the russian presidential elections, which are scheduled for the end of march this year. well, the military analysts say that the losses of russians in avdiivka are huge, more than 13 thousand, these are the data. from where the usa draws parallels with bakhmut, when, in order to capture the city, the russians stormed it for months and spared no resources. but is it possible to compare what is happening in avdiivka with bakhmut? indeed, many experts compare the situation in avdiivka with the situation in bakhmut last spring. let me remind you that at that time russian troops, as well as primarily mercenary detachments of the wagner military academy, almost stormed bahmud. year and spring

last year, i will repeat again, they were able to capture the city completely, gradually pushing the ukrainian troops out of the urban development, however, in fact, it is not very appropriate to compare avdiivka and bakhmut, the fact is that avdiivka, in fact, is not as urbanized a city as bakhmunt, if you can say so, if there was such a dense enough high-rise building in bakhmut, then in avdiivka. high-rise buildings are actually one single quarter, the so-called ninth quarter, everything else, the rest of the city is the private sector, the industrial part, well in fact, the large plant itself is the avdiivka coke-chemical plant, so in fact some long battles in the urban development will most likely be fought in avdiivka, besides, as local residents and military experts explain to us, the district of high-rise buildings in avdiivka is quite compact and it is located on a hill, that is, if it is captured, then actually.

it makes no sense to hold other areas of the city, since the enemy will be in a high position in the city and will be able to control all the entrances and exits to it, so really in to some, the situation is similar, but still has its own essentials. differences, therefore, in fact, many expert analysts say that such prolonged battles in urban development in avdiivka, as it was in bakhmut, should not be expected. yes, well, it was our correspondent oleg chernysha, in the meantime we are talking to military expert dmytro snigiroz znama on the phone. mr. dmytro, thank you for taking the time for us, the situation in avdiivka changes every day, it is difficult there, as we have heard, but can you explain why the russians consider the city a military, or rather a political goal? this is both a military and a political goal, it is worth mentioning that the control over davdiivka gives the armed forces of ukraine the opportunity to keep under fire control significant territories of the occupied regions of the donetsk region and donetsk itself. therefore, it is no coincidence that in donetsk , either command and headquarters

posts of the occupiers or field warehouses of the zbk explode time and time again. accordingly, the main task of the occupiers is to push the armed forces of ukraine away from donetsk by at least 30 km. avdiyivka actually cuts into... the defense of the occupying forces, this is a military objective. the second, political goal: on the 22nd, 30th, i apologize, on september 22 , the russian dictator signed a decree on the inclusion of the so-called dnr into the russian federation within the administrative borders of the donetsk region. currently, as of february 24 , the armed forces of ukraine control approximately 50% of the territory of donetsk. oblast, respectively, this is putin's personal defeat, both military and political, but the taking of the widow has nothing to do with the so-called elections in the russian federation, moreover, these theses actually legitimize the russian dictator in the eyes of the world community, making

it clear that the russian federation, depending on the tactical successes, or on the contrary, the defeats of the russian army, may increase or decrease the ratings. that is, there cannot be political pluralism in the conditions of a dictatorship. well, the day before, the publication for wrote that one of the best brigades, the third assault brigade, was transferred to reinforce ukrainian positions. is this the decision of the new military command of ukraine in your opinion? well, unfortunately, the events of bakhmut are repeated, and not only at the moment that the occupiers are trying to take under their control first of all the locations, then to displace the armed forces of ukraine. but avdiivka is turning into a second fortress, if the first one was the bakhmut fortress, and accordingly the decision-making regarding street battles and the defense of the city was made by the political leadership, then most likely we are talking about a similar political decision regarding the further defense

of avdiivka, currently there are certain tactical successes of the occupiers and their attempts to cut off the main locations of the armed forces of ukraine, that is in the lastochkin area, and accordingly. attempt to exit to industrial avenue in order to create an operational environment for the ukrainian group, the situation is difficult, but the situation is under control. if we simulate the situation, if the russians manage to do it and capture the woman, what will the consequences be? well, let's talk about the fact that the second and third defenses of the armed forces of ukraine are currently prepared, therefore, accordingly, the avdivka garrison is 110. prepared positions of the collapse of the front, as russian experts say, there will not be, there will be heavy battles again, but already on new lines of defense of the armed forces of ukraine. mr. dmytro, thank you, ivan dmytro snigiriv,

a military expert, was in touch with us and we talked about the situation in avdiivka and its surroundings. the situation in avdiivka is difficult, but people still live there, living under permanent conditions. shelling, hail destroys residential buildings, artillery hits indiscriminately, but the most terrible thing is aerial bombs. according to the military administration of avdiivka, the russians dropped more than 300 aerial bombs on the city in january alone. the last chance for civilians to save themselves is to leave with the white angels, this unit police bbc correspondent abdudzhalil abdurrasulov saw the evacuation of civilians. white angels in avdiivka. this special the police unit helps civilians who have suffered from the attacks. the cops gave me their bodycam video, which was captured by their body cameras. in the video

, you can see how difficult it is for people to leave their city, even if it is in ruins and constantly under fire. city. girl , many floors are completely folded after enemy aerial bombs. the entrance was destroyed, that's how our avdiivski weekdays are in this house there are elderly people left, but there was an arrival yesterday , but now, i don’t know, grandmother, let’s go, the police are trying to convince the locals to leave, some refuse, i’ll be here in... don’t give, but why are they dying here, still living and living yes, i’m smart

, thank you, let’s go, at least you’ll see her, no, kids, you’ll see larisa in pokrovsk, no, i’m not, i agree, but papa will go to pokrovsk, and if he dies there, excuse me, what will i do, well mom, go, i don't know, go, don't drag, everything, turn off, we're gathering, everything, let's go. everything, let's help you, yesterday's arrival of a guided aerial bomb, now the house looks like this, just recently they took out of this house, an elderly woman, her daughter, also elderly, if... they were in the apartment, they

would have died. in this case, according to the police camera, the woman survived another bombing, but her husband died. there is no electricity here for a long time, the equipment is damaged, the medical staff has left. in such conditions, the doctor can only stabilize the injured and send her to another hospital. people from people on this street are more and more actively starting to collect things and leave for safer places, active fighting is nearby, now we will evacuate the woman, er, and the man and two dogs, we agreed with volunteers who will intercept the woman and take her directly to the city of kharkiv. but today

my grandmother made an appointment with us for evacuation, we will evacuate her together with her cat, my god, they are shooting so hard at you, the police white angels are staying in the avdiivka. and help with evacuation, russian military groups approach the outskirts of the city, and those people who refuse to leave, soon there may be no choice. well, it was a report from zavdiyivka, meanwhile the situation in the city was discussed at today's rate. this is the first bet that volodymyr zelenskyy held with the new commander-in-chief of the armed forces of ukraine. can avdiivka become a trap for the armed forces, and this is how my colleague oleg summarizes the situation. chernysh how will the situation in avdiivka develop in the future? in fact, military

analysts say there are two options. the first option is to significantly strengthen ukrainian groups, introduce additional reserves and to counterattack the advancing russian troops. the second option is to gradually withdraw the ukrainian garrison from avdiyivka so that it does not get encircled. the ukrainian authorities do not comment on which ones. it will go the same way, at the same time we understand that in many ways the situation around avdiyivka will significantly affect the further front line in donbas, well, you can find the material of my colleague on our website bbc.ua, i also remind you, subscribing to our pages in social networks, in order not to miss the most important news, we are on facebook, instagram, tiktok, on youtube, you can watch our news release if you missed it on the air. we 'll see you tomorrow, as always at 9 p.m., good luck and take care.

greetings, friends, live on the espresso tv channel, the verdict program, this is the second part of our today's issue, today in the program. in the case of kurchenko's fuel , ex-people's deputy pashynskyi was searched. why did the law enforcement officers remember the story of nine years ago? rotations in the command of the armed forces. the president made major personnel changes in the military leadership. or will new political

prospects open up for zelenskyi? russia is at war with the entire west. on the eve. elections with a known result in advance, putin sends signals to the world through his agents. as well as live tv, we are working on our platforms on youtube and facebook, for those who are currently watching us live there, please like this video and also subscribe to our pages. in addition, during the entire broadcast, we are conducting a survey, we ask you about the following: would you like to see us in ukrainian politics and? yes, everything is on youtube quite simple, the button yes, the button no, or write your thoughts, write your comments under this video, if you watch us on tv, pick up your smartphone and vote, if you see the future of zaluzhny in ukrainian politics, 0800-211381, no 0800 211 382, ​​all calls to these numbers are free,

call, at the end of the program we will sum up the results of this vote, i want to introduce today's guests - serhii taran, political scientist and political technologist oleksiy holobutsky. gentlemen, i am pleased to welcome you to to our broadcaster, thank you for being with us today. greetings, greetings to you. well, since you are the main experts on, politicians on political technologies in ukraine, then i can't help but ask you what you think, do you see the future of useful in ukrainian politics, because do you see the future of useful in... in ukrainian politics, because our viewers and tv viewers answer these questions, it is interesting to hear your opinion as well, let's start with mr. sergey, you know, not much depends on our opinion now, he is already involved in politics, we can see how much people understand it, if we let's look at the sociological polls, which

in one way or another, even now, are commissioned by various structures, we will see that in all of them there is a lackey. he doesn't have a party yet, but he already has a rating and there are already scenarios in which he even wins in any election. maybe, of course, when it comes to the elections, it won't be like that, there all options are possible, but the fact that he is de facto involved in politics now, well, that's beyond doubt, the only question is that we don't have politics , but his dismissal took place under a political pretext, therefore, it creates certain difficulties, but you know, in ukrainian politics. it happened very often, you know, ukrainians really love those who, in their opinion, are illegally insulted by the government, and the journey into big politics of many prominent ukrainian politicians began precisely with this, well, starting with kuchma and yushchenko and ending with the whole a galaxy of various anti-corruption activists, activists who

fought against the government there, the government oppressed them, and after that, their journey into politics began. and now zaluzhny is going through this story in the same way, he is being filmed in the same way, according to the opinion of the citizens, sometimes it is illegal and completely groundless, and of course, after that , the campaign of a hard-working politician can absolutely begin, of course only under one condition, if he himself wants it, this is now the only thing in essence that determines his political future, it is his own desire. well, yes, of course, because general zaluzhnyi did not declare his political views or positions. himself as a politician, although during the war the head of the armed forces of ukraine is the person on whom politics, business, the future of the president, and the past depend the president, and the life of every ukrainian , every person who lives in this country, mr. oleksiy, how, if we talk about the industrious, then probably how they married me without me, well, it’s about

the same, that is, whether the industrious wants it or not , but he... he was pushed into the top league of ukrainian politics, it is not known when the elections will be, of course, and it is not known whether he will have a party, he will not, will he run for president, he will not, you would like to see a hard worker in ukrainian politics , mr. oleksiy, i hear everything, i just thought about it the question is, you know, i don't want to, i support this... this is our problem, it's our problem, it's the existence of a problem, what is the program of the industrious , what are the views of the industrious, well, you will vote for the industrious, who turned out to be industrious ... a racist , for example, yes, or a xenophobe, i don’t know, he has left-wing views, he’s a socialist, for example, well , we’re just talking, because you know, that’s it, and, not

only that, thank god, we also have at least some kind of democracy remains, and you cannot force a person into politics, well, that's the order, so to speak, yes, i absolutely do not agree with sergiy here, i respect zaluzhny a lot, i think he, well, he went down in history in any case. of ukraine, this is a person who will stand next to the most prominent historical figures, with petliura, with mikhnovsky, with bandera, there with many others, but for now it is precisely the military factor, parts of their biographies, yes, but not the political part, and whether it will be this continuation, this is this no one knows this answer, and again he has a very difficult moment right now, very difficult, i i am sure that his... the fate of the politician's future will be decided in the next two or three months, if he does not give a signal, does not do something before this time, all those, i

understand, now they will start spitting at me right there on the screen and so on , yes, but i remember when i also told that this adventurer, that this person who changed owners several times, who spoke from every tv screen, and everyone loved him, ran after him, collects... autographs, his everyone was listening, i saw female fans who were just ready to tear up, i wasn't i just don't want to name this person's last name, so now we see that he has -76 rating -76, yes, that's why i won't be worthy of this, of course , because he didn't fit into this commune, we don't know anything about him, except for his military achievements , we don't know anything about him, he can, that is, he is an ideal candidate of course. presidents are ideal, yes, because if he continues, well, roughly speaking, if in two or three months he says, hints that he is ready to engage in some political

activity, engage in, yes, then everyone they will invent, yes, they will think , the left will think that he is left, the right that he is right, the centrists that he is a centrist, and the less he will say, the more the ukrainian people will like him, the problem is different, the problem is that , what... well, i disagree with serhiy here again, he was legally removed, what is it that it is illegal to remove the commander-in-chief, i just can’t imagine, what kind of moment is this, he has a supervisor, the supreme commander-in-chief, he was removed from his positions during the war, it a military position, a clear hierarchy, and he cannot be compared with all those politicians that serhiy spoke about, who started his career with... retirement, he is a military man, we don't have that, we are not turkey, we are not greece in the 70s years, we are not even libya, but in the 50s, 60s, yes,

we do not have a formed military caste that plays a political role, well, simply because of the weakness of the democratic institutions that existed in those countries, i can’t imagine to myself, so that, that is, it will be a precedent simply, that is, i imagine, but this... fundamentally changes our politics, of course i wish him success, i would very much like to see the next president as a hard worker, but it will not be the elections we are used to, and it will not be the political career we are used to in principle, yes, it will be it's completely different, and those who are now pushing hard-working people into politics won't like it, i have no doubt about it , well, listen, zelensky also unexpectedly entered politics, in principle, this is the first.

how will it affect the future of ukraine and the army and the front and, of course, president zelensky, because if the presidents are acting they make ... mistakes, then they have to do a lot, if, if we lose the war, then i think no one will be interested in the political future of zaluzhny, nor in the political future of zelensky, and this is the maximum we can count on, it is the government in exile , and therefore, so to speak, it seems to me that it is not related to this topic, well, but, but zelenskyi did not release the servant in order to sit in exile, in principle, and obviously one of the reasons. it was precisely the rating of the people's trust in serhii, as in general helpful to zelenskyi from the point of view of her

future with... who, who is so helpful on zelenskyi's path to the second presidency? well, i answered at first, when i spoke about the perception of zaluzhny, i did not say that, for example, he was removed unfairly, i emphasized that in the opinion of the voters, he was removed unfairly, as well as when i spoke about his future political future, i was talking about the opinion of the voters, you know that, our voters always create idols for themselves, especially without asking themselves what their ideology is, and that's it for today you won't do anything, especially during the war , well, voters will pay less attention to ideology, unfortunately, by the way, and will pay more attention to some leadership qualities, especially if this leader from the military environment will guess what ideology he is from, and they will vote for it, and they will come up with very serious stories about why

it was removed. unfairly, although there is certainly a share , so to speak, well, i want to emphasize, not illegality, but not justice in the fact that he was removed, because the only reason for which he was removed was his political rating, everything is not of his professional quality, not his failures or failures, but precisely this, and we all understand this very well, and this is exactly how people will perceive it, and therefore they can carry him in their hands into politics, of course, i emphasize once again provided he wants to. because in reality, well, it doesn't get the impression that he is very interested in politics, and this is also completely normal, why should a military, professional, successful person be interested in politics, in general, it would take us more than an hour to talk about what happens to the heroes military men who go into politics, because there are completely different stories, they are completely different, opposite and very successful, for example, like de gaulle, there are less successful ones, like pinochet, for example, or there are other stories, but in any

case eh. .. what are we talking about now, about the theoretical possibility of a career in politics, what will it mean for zelenskyi? well , according to the current sociological ratings, it will end for him, well, probably, in the loss of his monopoly in power, this is at least, this, again, this is not me saying this, this is what the sociological polls say, and he, of course, he very uncomfortable as a politician, maybe as commander-in-chief arvi, probably convenient, because he is successful, but as a politician who will compete with him, probably uncomfortable, but it seems to me that the phenomenon of zaluzhny is precisely that that we should conclude that politics is returning, no matter what we talk about individual politicians, in their perspectives, politics itself is returning, and people at least perceive all these changes in power now as political, not as professional, but as political , and it would be half the trouble if

more than one nuance. we no longer have democratic politics, we have politics in part, but politics in conditions of lack of freedom of speech, in conditions of free competition, it is absolutely clear that in military conditions in general, what kind of politics can be, it turns out to be not quite so correct , not quite fair, and to answer the question of how it will all end for them , the current government can say when full-fledged, democratic, free politics... will return to ukraine, then, after the end of either this war or this stage of the war, when free democracy returns to ukraine, it will be clear who and what has what rating, and by the way, it will be possible to measure the rating and be convinced that it will be a real election result, because no matter what we say, to the end of hostilities, these are all very conditional things, but after the end of hostilities, we will look at their

outcome, we will look at... borders, we will look at those geopolitical conditions, at the results of these geopolitical negotiations regarding ukraine, and this is decisive will have an effect and for the future of zelensky, and for the future of zalozhny, and of course, for the future of all of ukraine. thank you, oleksiy, if you want, literally two minutes for a reaction to close this topic, well, regarding democracy, not when, but if it returns, this is my remark, it is not necessary. it is not guaranteed that we will get everything back even after victory, well, secondly, regarding the ratings, i do not agree with the fact that the rating was the only reason, the reason is disloyalty, and it seems to me that this worries the current government more than the rating , which, as sergey rightly said, firstly, it is very difficult to measure during the war, secondly, you can simply disappear very, very quickly, but loyalty is either there or not. thank you.