favorite presenters, presenters who have become like family to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio: the events of the day in two hours, vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for smart and caring people, in the evening at espresso. dear friends, here we are, lesya vakulyuk, andriy saichuk and ivan uz, candidate of economic sciences, chief consultant of the national institute of strategic studies. with us, mr. ivan, we are glad to see you. congratulations to you, ms. olesya, mr. andriy, and all the viewers. mr. ivan, drones hit russian refineries again, they say that these are drones of the main administration intelligence well, they say that our drones over russian refineries have caused some trouble in the russian oil market. but tell us what trouble? well, look. first of all, we can

say that one of the consequences of these strikes was that as of march 1 of this year , the russian federation banned the export of certain types of oil products. if we talk about money, because when we talk about exports, it is important how much money the aggressor gives to the state, then, for example, in 2023 russia earned 75 billion dollars from the export of oil products, that is, here you go, we that, well... i understood that not all of this amount will be able to reach russia in the current year, but that it will be a significant loss of currency necessary for russia, this is a fact. next, if you look at the weekly fuel production in russia, it's down, well, not that much, by 10 percent, but it's also down, which it can lead to, which is quite logical in after a certain period of time, there may

be a shortage of this very fuel in some subjects of the russian federation, for in order to prevent such shortages, russia, as i mentioned, has already banned exports, and now there are talks that russia will buy fuel from belarus and kazakhstan, and here, by the way, there is a great irony that because in 2000-19 , the so-called tax maneuver was started in the russian federation, the idea of ​​which was quite simple: to reduce taxes on exports and increase taxes on mining. why was such a step taken, because, for example, in relations with belarus there is an agreement that the export duty, it is paid into the budget of belarus, but nothing is mentioned about the production tax, and then the ideologues of this step said that... this

will lead to a decrease in oil supplies to belarusian refineries and, on the contrary, belarus will buy more oil products from russia. what we have now, by the way, this tax maneuver ended exactly on january 1, 2024, that is , this year, that now, on the contrary, russia wants to buy oil products from belarus, and we understand that it is not in lukashenka's tradition not to make money from such a situation, so there is more. .. will be forced to pay extra for these supplies, so in fact this is an additional pressure on the russian budget, which, by the way, if we recall the beginning of this year, already in two months, for example, for january-february, from the planned budget deficit of russia for the entire year 2024, they had 92%, that is, in fact, in two months, a deficit was created that was supposed to appear for the entire year, and... this

means that russia must look for options to cover this deficit. the simplest is the national welfare fund, but it was and in past years, so this leads to the fact that this fen fund is getting smaller and smaller, and it is also used to pay extra to gazprom, aeroflot and other companies, so russian politicians, who are already in opposition , say that this fund may disappear, if not in this year. already at the beginning of the next one, and what to do without reserves, this is a very good question, because it is unlikely that russia will be able, let's say, to introduce its economy when they will not have reserves, er, in general, sovietization is taking place in russia economy, i.e. trillions rubles are now thrown into the military-industrial complex, and this gives, at least a nominal increase in the gross domestic product, nevertheless, some reverse. the flip side of this approach to

the economy, you know, back in september of last year in the report of the central bank of russia there was such a very interesting phrase that the main problem. of the russian economy lies in the fact that the growth of the production of goods and services occurs in areas not related to the production , consumption and investment of goods, that is , rather, production did not count, they said that this is consumption and investment, it was meant that when there is an increase in gdp, that is, the production of certain products increases, then there is an unconditional expectation that it will give an economic effect to the economy of the state itself, that is, new machines are produced, things that are possible. .. to implement in the economy, whether certain investments are made that will allow certain profits to be obtained in the future, and this phrase, which was written in the report of the central bank of russia, it practically hinted at the fact that everything that this growth is happening now,

it, as they say, burns in the fire of war, of course, they did not write this, but, let's say, the analysts understood this phrase, that really all these growth figures they ... do not give any expected effect, because if you developed there are 200 more tanks there, and these 200 tanks were burned in ukraine or damaged, it doesn’t matter, otherwise it turns out that the growth that you reported on is multiplied by zero, as the former head of kharkiv said, so it turns out that there is no special effect , prospects, you can generally keep silent about them, because you know, this one strategy... russia's everything is for now, it leads to the fact that there are no delays for the future, and there are none, the most important thing is that we started with the problems that may be in russia because of the strikes on the oil and processing industries, and at least for factories that

process oil, one of these problems is that it is necessary to redistribute budget expenditures and save in such areas as, for example, prevention. floods or fires, in fact the vorska dam demonstrated that they saved money on that, did not follow up on this issue, and already orsk went almost under water, and as for fires, well, that is a question of the next months, they say that they are traditional in russia, but the difference from previous periods is that money for prevention is almost not allocated, and people who in general are responsible. for this they are now not in a place of responsibility, but as they say svo, that is, they cannot do anything at all, and therefore, you know, i think that this summer there will be a lot of fires in russia, and i think that this will be one of the top topics that we will discuss, well, mr. ivan, you mentioned

flood, and i saw a video, you know, i even watched it several times, because yes, watching how our people suffer... yesterday we showed material about how a 98-year-old woman left ocheretyanyi, 10 km passed, and this is not the old age, old age in ukraine was already difficult, but the war made it even more terrible, this is not the old age that this woman dreamed of, and probably not the old age that you want for our people, so here this is a video from russia, where a simple russian family, with valuables, they stand in such rubber ones eh... overalls, if possible, please remove the title, there are a few subtitles of what they are saying, they didn't even record an appeal to putin, that support is needed for a simple russian family, and not a stab in the back, please to remove some, or a tax or something, in short

, they turn to putin, and in fact, what they have, they say, they have fear of despair, doom, and that this is a tragedy of a federal scale, and mr. putin. help, spare, love a simple russian family with simple russian values, they even say that there are a few floods and moscow was concerned about the extent to which this catastrophe in russia affects russians, whether putin will once again manage to calm everyone down, sweeten his pen with money somewhere, or, well, you know, no... they lost property, housing, and now putin will say, that's fine, join the army, we'll give you money, earn money and repair your houses. well, to begin with , i want to thank mr. garakhovsky of menabank, who, as you know,

announced yesterday that they will buy a house for a 98-year-old grandmother, that is, it is about, you know, demonstrating the attitude of ukrainian business, of ukrainian society to our citizens, as far as russia, the situation is reversed here. in this case, you know, here you are saying that putin will give them money there. i remember more the statement of the person who was putin's bodyguard in president medve's chair. who once said a phrase: there is no money, but you hold on, i think, most likely , this phrase will be the same for all these people, which is how we definitely see what happened to you, but you understand the times, there is no money, so you somehow, you are not really drowning there, because you also have to help, well, you know, that's it too much and maybe, of course , they will demonstratively find some capuchin, so that you know , show there that here we are, somewhere far from... the place, we did something, built and everything, and forgot about it, because we don't need to be distracted by this

issue. as for, by the way, certain consequences for the economy, there, by the way, if i am not mistaken, there was another oil refinery in this area, and here, as they say, we did without our drones, that is , we had one plant removed and and saved drones on this, and as for moscow, well it reached there, but not to such a degree. no, and in general , there is money for moscow, for peter, just in russia, another question is that the more there is for the federal center or for the city of putin's st. petersburg, and then there is no money for other subjects of the federation, and that's why it is unlikely that they will find anything there to help those people, rather, let's say so, rather now the team will sift through any information about that territory, and you know, here is another memory. an expression that may even have become popular, that it is russian, and that belgrade is it russia, that is, to say that we do not know, this, this

is not our territory, we, we are not aware of what is happening there, we are not responsible for it, that is , for russia in the condition, i emphasize, which it has driven its economy through its geopolitical desires, well, to spend on these people, it is definitely not what they need, therefore a completely different philosophy and in general, well, i have always perceived russia. as some, you know, kgb thinking country, i called it, that is, a country that dreams in terms of security, but which does not, let's say, think in terms of development life of its citizens, so here we can mention the same, i don't know, the united arab emirates, what they do for their citizens, and russia, which has large oil deposits, but does not even think about spending them on the growth of the well-being of its citizens more on your military vehicle, for propaganda and so on, so... people should understand here that in which country they live, i mean russia, and

not to hope for anything, because this is another catchphrase: the family will leave you son, that's all that can be said about russia. and that's what family is kinit, well, they have such a deplorable situation that they have to walk in their house in these rubber overalls, it can somehow push these russian drowning people to arrange some. riots, or even being in knee-deep water, will they still be kneeling? you know, i'm afraid that, you know, the experience of previous years, just years , has demonstrated that they will ask the tsar, that is, putin, to save them, but despite the fact that in general it is possible, let's say, to commit a rebellion, well, certain voices are heard there , by the way, that is, i cannot say that everyone there is absolutely equally obedient, will ask for help, there are already certain citizens of russia, at least there is a video with their statements, where they

begin to say phrases that everything was given to crimea, they did not give to us, maybe we separate from russia, and then we will be fine, you know, so far these are single voices, so far i don't feel that there is support for this position, but you know, well, anything can be, because here too it should not be said, that russia is completely in this... has disappeared, that there will be no rebellions, the main thing is that there is a person who will lead them behind me, because everyone remembers beautifully, and his march of justice to moscow, and something i do not remember, that in the same rostov-on-don, a place with more than a million inhabitants, there were a lot of people against it, on the contrary, there were people who supported it, that is, the internal there is a request for a facility in russia, the main thing is to find a person who can lead it, and as soon as she is found, i think that we will still see some... significant violations. and by the way, i also wanted to say that while

people are getting poorer in russia, there, especially there in orsk and so on, they no longer know how to ask putin for help with what tears. here, nevertheless, russian billionaires, for example, are getting richer, that is , the fortunes of russian billionaires have increased by 15 billion, and in general, 26 of them have entered this year's list. this is bbi, bloomberg billionaires index. here. and there, by the way, only one ukrainian, it seems, entered this, this. 500, 500 richest people in the world according to the version of the bloomberg agency, only one ukrainian entered this list - this is not a surprise, it is rinat akhmetov, he is at 438 positions, but here is what surprised me a little, there are so many attacks on all those teds, who are very often

somewhere there in all those structures, i understand akhmetov, i may be wrong here, but he demonstrated, if you believe... bloomberg has almost half a billion gains this year, how do you comment on that, mr. ivan, you know, very much, because i follow these rankings, i follow them probably since 2000, somewhere in the third or fourth year, there has always been a question of how these fortunes are formed, because you know, even talking to people, which, let's say, are not present in these ratings, but parents, who are present in certain ratings, they always said that we do not understand where these numbers come from, so... what is the impression that certain people's assets are taken, they understand that they belong to them, they are compared with the same assets on west, what is the price there, and they say that they have such and such a status, that is , because of this, there have been situations throughout history, well , not bloomberg forbes, maybe even a more famous rating, when a person

with a fortune of 20 billion dollars there, like one brazilian businessman, for next year already didn’t have anything, because... they, as forb wrote, who counted that we really had too much of him, gave him money, there even, well , it wasn’t zero right away, they reduced it from 20 somewhere to two or four, and then we in general, he was excluded from the list, therefore, in my opinion , all these ratings also need improvement, because bloomberg and forms also have a model for themselves, because there is really a request from society to understand who are such bugs in our country, by the way, regarding ukraine, there was such an... interesting story, although it was before the start of a full-scale war, in the rating of the richest ukrainians, well, akhmetov was the first, and the second and third places were shared by two, and i hesitate whether we can even call them businessmen, they are american itishniks who are from ukraine, litvin and shevchenko, if i am not

mistaken in their surnames, they created grammerly program, and here is their totality. machines, by the way, these two, yes, an american university, if i’m not mistaken, they completed it, and their combined fortune was more than that of rinat akhmetov, then they were removed and told that they still have one canadian there, canadian, other american citizenship, but nevertheless it was such an interesting story that new faces appeared in our ranking and quite high, well, confirmation of your words, confirmation of your words actually, i also wanted to say that... on forbes, akhmetov is now in 781 place, and he already has 4 billion there, i.e. in bloomberg he has almost 6 billion, according to forbes only 4 billion. next comes pinchuk 166th on the list of the richest people in the world and then vadim novinsky 2432 on the list with 1 billion 200 million

dollars, as if he calculated, well, it's interesting even that in this ufor. elon musk seems to have lost a lot of 6 billion dollars in a year and ended up in second place, but if bloomberg is to be believed, then musk is simply not the winner of the year, because he lost 35 billion and fell to third place, very painful, probably for him, well, in principle looked at this tesla cyber trick and thought that at least 35 should have fallen, somewhere like that, well, so it's again about everyone having their own methodology, and so we see ... the differences between, well, i think it's two leading, by the way, sources for evaluation of machines, of course, many other resources try to make their assessments, another question is how true they are, but at least they hint at who these richest people in the world are, and who at least, in our country they love conspiracy theories, they are loved all over the world, that who controls the world and it is believed that these

businessmen, well, although there is such a good joke that in fact those who... have the most wealth, no one knows them, because they pay so that no one mentions their last name, and this happens, so in fact, but for to understand the trend, to understand who are singled out and so that american officials know who should be included in the sanctions, this is where such ratings are needed, and that is why there were many stories that the us sanctions list was taken purely from forbes, when russia was taken, all people were written out and included in the lists, mr. ivan, regarding the whale. said blinken in riyadh, after, by the way, he visited china, i will talk about it with an international later today, and the fact that china is now very strongly connected to the russian economy helps. machines, helps them with microcircuits for russian industry, the military, in fact makes this war endless, that is, a big problem,

nevertheless, i read that, for example, there are fewer and fewer exports from china to russia, how is this happening and that it seems that chinese companies refuse to work with russian importers, look, this is where the story began in december, december 22, 2023, the president. biden signed a decree, an order, or rather, that any financial institutions that will be around the world that will carry out transactions with substations, physical and legal persons of russia may be prohibited from using the national currency of the united states of america, just in case, let me remind you that the us dollar accounts for their currency, well, the number changes from month to month, approximately 43% of international payments. there is another 32 €. and therefore for any structure not to have the opportunity, financial structure, not to be able to use the us dollar, well,

to put it mildly, it will be a very, very, very negative moment, because after all, it is in this currency that a lot of operations, and when this order was signed, in february of this year, china indicated that it would be more vigilant about any... money transfers both from russia and to russia. the consequence of this statement was that, according to the results of march, the actual foreign trade, the trade turnover between china and russia, has already started to fall, the only thing is that there are no data for april, today is only may 1, so i think that the data may appear in a week , however, we understand that it is very important for the chinese financial sector to have access to lead currencies of the world, which are the dollar and the euro, and therefore they will not risk losing this access because of their relationship with russia. and for russia, china really became the main

partner, you know, despite the fact that russia, it does not show its data on foreign trade, but through mirror statistics we can say that china's share in russia's trade turnover, trade turnover already exceeds 50%, that is, from the whole world about half goes to china. maybe even more, because those are not based on complete data , i understood that there was 70%, but there was no data on india and other major countries, so i think that china's share will be smaller, but we still understand that everything has switched to china, a lot of things are closed in russia, and this is indeed the supply of these eurostats and many goods in general, another component, that these goods are, for example, the same cars, passenger cars, which are in russia now... they cost the same as the german ones used to cost, although the quality is not the same, and chinese manufacturers even push the russians out of the russian market, which they talk about already

the truck manufacturers of russia, well, here again after all, russia itself chose this path, and you know, this concentration on china leads to the fact that china simply grabs it, as they say, from the domestic market, when the domestic market of russia is rather the chinese market than in... the market of russian manufacturers , but after all, this is their problem, but let's look further, because i understand why this pressure is on china, because there is a fear that, after all, somewhere china is helping, and they hint to him more and more loudly that how says biden don't, so china has something to lose in this the dispute with the united states, unlike russia, mr. ivan, thank you for the conversations, ivan us was with us, candidate of economic sciences, chief consultant of the national institute for strategic studies, well, ours... continues, stay with us, still to come, one hour of ours participation in the espresso marathon.

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call. greetings, it's news time on the spresso tv channel, kateryna shiropoyas works in the studio, the enemy is actively shelling kharkiv oblast in... the place damaged civilian and critical infrastructure, garages, cars, premises, railways and a railway station, ten civilians were injured, a 26-year-old man was killed , from front-line villages and towns the region evacuated 89 children and their families. collected materials for...