it depends on the participation of dozens of other countries and depends in principle on the understanding of how much pressure it will put on russia. therefore, what china did is absolutely understandable. he saw that for him such complex formats and formats that are intricately connected with the western view are unsuitable. he came up with an alternative opinion, this alternative opinion was not listened to to the extent that china wanted it to be listened to, and china decided for now with its attention this ukrainian format. the formula of peace is to separate, and as for russia, russia is basically like us have seen, pursued an active anti-summit policy and actively promoted the narrative that the summit would fail during the period when preparations for it were underway with the involvement of china, and with the active involvement of india, and with the active involvement of many other partners of russia in the global arena, that is, for russia , this issue was more difficult than for china, if china had the opportunity to choose, then russia was obviously afraid that... it could lose

its partners, who are still willing to make its diplomacy a handshake and continue to buy russian resources. well, by the way, about russian resources, a lot of countries came to this summit, i don't know if russia or china wanted them to come, they didn't want them to come, but they didn't stop economic cooperation with moscow because of that, right? it's obvious that they're not stopping, it's obvious that some of them, especially those who now so meekly refused to sign the final communique, or who dropped out in the last two days, well... apparently they can even increase this cooperation, because actually , as lavrov said there, an anti-russian movement was formed coalition, and accordingly everyone who is outside the anti-russian coalition can count on better discounts, they can count on better treatment, they can count on the fact that russia will be ready to pool its own resources on even more favorable terms, so yes, unfortunately for these states , this will not close the channels of cooperation with the russians in any way yet, it must be repeated once again that until a complete eco... system is formed around

the peace formula, god willing, it will turn out so that it will become mutually interesting for all parties of this communication, and not only for us, because we just want it to work, well, until that moment, the countries that traded with russia will still have an interest in trading with russia, because we have to remember that in general the peace formula, especially its component in in terms of food, in terms of new trade networks, in terms of safe trade and so on, it was done with the aim that other countries would be ready to talk about a world without russia, so that other countries, they say, would be ready to work with ukraine and with the west and not have the same ones contacts with russia. of course, this was a very optimistic view of the situation, but based on these positions, well, so far, the peace formula will clearly not bring such a result, and those who wanted to trade with moscow can continue to do so for the time being. in principle, what is more important now, diplomacy or weapons, or not even that, it is clear that weapons?

to what extent can diplomacy strengthen weapons realistically in a situation where russia will rush to diplomacy? well, it seems to me that our key diplomacy should now be directed at two directions the first is constant support, actualization, even rather, of ukrainian issues in our western partners, because we see that in the united states, in britain , pre-election socio-political escalation is increasing, we see that ukrainian issues very often fall out of the general context. and of course, it is important for us to emphasize that despite the elections, despite the peace formula, despite everything else, russia, unfortunately, still exists, and if russia exists, there are shelling, there are attacks on the civilian population, there is a need to provide weapons to ukraine, and the second big issue is that, unfortunately, we started quite late, literally in the middle of the 23rd year, but what needs to be done for sure is the search for non-western allies who are ready to actively work with us , non-western we are talking'. physically, because in principle most of those

partners who work with us, let's say in the east, such as south korea, japan, most of our partners from the global cock, they in one way or another consider themselves part of the western coalition, but i repeat, part of the shells, a huge part even new equipment that can be supplied to us can now be found in those countries that have not cooperated with us so actively before, so here are two directions, updating our topic with... old partners and allies, and finding ways out and opportunities for cooperation with new partners, it seems to me that this is the only diplomacy that will make sense now. this is the only diplomacy that will allow us to really obtain the level of weapons, resources, and financial support that will allow us to speak with russia on an equal footing, let's call it that. you have no worries, that's it those official comments, as i see that now the holding of the measure summit, which can be considered a successful diplomatic action there, will use. in order to

start convincing people again that the end of the war is just a few months away, wait a few more months, and there will be a peaceful situation, russia will absolutely agree, because so many places... are against it, i can already see , as it goes, and it reminds me of the story about two or three weeks in 2022, why can't you honestly tell people that this is a multi-year war without prospects of a political settlement, so that they at least understand in which country and in which world they live and will live there for the next years, even if there is a truce and an end to the fire, we will not rule it out, because , unfortunately, that's how much we do not observe communication of the authorities during the war, we see that our authorities, i... do not know how to work with the management of expectations, that is, we are not so much talking about the narratives that are used, we are not talking about the messages that very often do not correspond to the real situations, it's simple real inability to work with expectations management, because for some reason it seems to those who form our policy, our information

component, that if we convince everyone that everything will be fine and we keep it up for a long enough time, then people simply the horizon of planning will be reduced, people will have a sense of imminent danger, and they say that at some point it will simply either become even, or everything will become so bad that there will be no need to explain anything. plus, they, our government, meant , as we saw, to promote this narrative western partners who say that everything is so cool with us that you can safely give us weapons now, because they say that we will hold out, we will do everything quickly, and then you will not have to give weapons for so long, that is , the calculation is to finish everyone to convince that everything is very cool, everything... can be solved quickly, and therefore we need to be supported. no one wants to honestly say how difficult the situation is, because no one is sure that it will be possible to explain it both to our partners outside and to the population inside, because one way or another, but if we already from the 22nd year they started working for two or three weeks, then coffee in july in yalta, then

it continues again in two months , the war will end, if such a course has already been taken, it is very difficult to get off it, you will have to tell too much truth, and as you understand, it is always very, very difficult, well, it seems to me that our partners understand very well that they are witnesses of a multi-year conflict, they said in the 22nd year that if the conflict does not end in six months, at least 6-8 years, they act in this support paradigm of ukraine for a long-term perspective? yes, but, but somehow we continue to believe that we have to convince them that we can finish it quickly, accordingly, if we can finish it quickly, then we are so cool, good, and safe to give us any weapon, that is, if you... give it for a short period, we will win quickly, and don't be afraid that you will have to give it for a long time, you can tell your voters that we will spend a little money, and then this spending of money will end and say very soon everything will be as it was before and it will be possible to think about restoring a normal economy, dealing with inflation and so

on and so on, that is, the fact that our allies understand the state of affairs more realistically is one thing, but the fact that ours do not understand how partners perceive it or as partners. are building their strategy, causes not only problems with the management of expectations, but by the way, causes the same insults that were directed at the americans, causes a misunderstanding of why european partners or why the rammstein format gives weapons the way it does, and this already directly affects communication , it already causes such a situation when the western press literally comes out with editorials about the fact that biden and zelensky are not satisfied with each other and do not want to understand each other, that is, it becomes not only a problem of external communication, it is... a problem of planning, and it has become so widespread in our planning, that we need to convince everyone that everything is great, that i repeat, as i said before, i don't know how to get out of this situation normally, because telling too much truth at once is a real threat for such communication , and so what

too much truth, but the truth can be dosed, so to speak , given from monday to friday in dosed forms, so that on saturday everyone will understand what the real situation looks like in the future. well, what i mean by too much is to explain absolutely all the punctures, explain the absolutely complete situation and clearly and openly say that this is how we were wrong from the very beginning, this is too much truth, it is not just to admit, since when from the 22nd year or from the 19th, or normally from the 19th, but let's be realistic, most likely we are already talking about the time of the 22nd year, that is , to explain why there were such decisions then, why there was no... there was preparation right a month before the invasion, why in some parts of the fruit and aspects this preparation literally broke down, why our partners did not receive absolutely correct communication during that period, why we rejected absolutely obvious things at that time, why

such and such decisions were made at the turn of 22-23, how exactly the counteroffensive was planned, and many, many more questions. thank you, mr. oleksandr, oleksandr kraev, expert of the council of foreign affairs politician ukrainian prism, we were in touch. now let's talk with borys koshniruk, economist, head of the expert council of the ukrainian analytical center. congratulations, mr. boris, congratulations. let's start with russia, maybe you can explain what... will actually happen to the russian economy or not in connection with the sanctions against the stock market, because you know that the russian leadership, they are trying to pretend that this is nothing special will not change that the dollar will be determined by the banks themselves, but by the central bank will be found out in banks, and the currency system of the russian federation will be in the same state as it was. is it true or not? to a large extent yes, you need to understand that the lack of... an exchange mechanism for determining the exchange rate is a certain problem, but in our country,

for example, the national bank essentially determines the exchange rate manually every day, although formally we have some mechanism of interbank currency trading , but meanwhile it is actually determined by the national bank in manual mode, so it is not critical for the russian economy will not be critical, although let's say the spreads. expands what is not defined, and what's next, it creates a situation when the buying and selling rate will be more significantly different than when it is set during trading on the stock exchange. well, by and large, can we say that this is the beginning of some new type of sanctions, or a continuation of those that were? these continuations, which were, are only, let's say, gradually, slowly, overlapping. an opportunity for the russian economy, but this is a long game, it is very necessary to constantly explain to everyone what

all these sanctions will continue to exist for decades after this war ends, and these problems in russia will be there for a very, very long time, and again, i strongly emphasize that the purpose of these sanctions is not so much to stop this war as to weaken it as much as possible russia and prevent new aggression, well... but when it comes to restricting the activities of chinese companies, let's say, which cooperate with russia, to what extent does this affect china itself and russia's ability to restore the economy with the help of china? in my opinion, the binding is always on one economy bad a priori and for russia, it is safe as an additional problem for china, this is even a plus, because in... there is a market for chinese products, especially in the conditions

of growing problems for the chinese economy, so it is not so bad for china in this regard, another thing is that this sanctions regime, the so-called secondary sanctions against chinese campaigns, it only demonstrates that in essence two global coalitions are being formed, auto-tarchies of democracies and er... a direct collision of these auto-tarchies is very, very likely, a collision of autarchies with democracies or the appearance of a clash of self-righteousness among themselves, no, unfortunately, at least at the first stage of self-righteousness with the democracies, if they succeed, well, remember germany and the soviet union, and at first they divided their spheres of influence and so on, and then they clashed between itself directly. in principle, if we talk about such a collision, to what extent china can afford such a direct

conflict with the west, taking into account its economic dependence on western markets, almost to the maximum, you understand, if you take, well , look for logic, then under any circumstances, a clash is not profitable for china, a war, and a long war is always a negative game, it is never a positive game, but the problem is that a... the logic of the dictators who rule the auto-tarchies, they have a completely different logic, and they very often project their ideas about the world, they actually project onto a life that can be completely different, and again , there have been many such examples in history, what the ukrainian economy will look like after these strikes on the energy infrastructure, as far as can be considered in principle what you... production can exist at the same level and work with the same profitability

in the conditions of the current shortage of electricity and increased tariffs, certainly additional problems, we will now see that the greater number of nuclear power units will be forced to put on technical preventive maintenance in the summer for that , so that they can work effectively in the winter, and i have already discussed this thesis, i do not want to scare anyone with it, but i do not rule out that the russian madness may reach the point that they will begin to strike nuclear power plants, moreover, i emphasize, they cannot cause a nuclear catastrophe with this, and that is where the nuclear fuel is located, it is located in very protected zones, conflations, which simply cannot be destroyed there by rockets or airplanes, but can significantly damage the equipment that is engaged in

the production of electricity, it's possible, and in this case... the situation could be even worse than it is now, that's why we talk all the time about nuclear security, i understand, internationally, no, we talk about nuclear security not so much about strikes on nuclear plants, how about these constant mantras of russia that it can use nuclear weapons, because although again the history, including the only case when it was sponsored by japan... a blow to the heart of nagasaki, nagasaki, well, it is known that not they led to the fact that japan surrendered, the surrender of japan was a consequence of the fact that, in fact, the soviet union , despite the agreement with japan, started a war, occupied a significant territory in majura, and accordingly, the japanese army simply could not

start this and after that they already announced capitulation what is the general state of the economy in ukraine today, so what, what to do with the current ukrainian economy, well , you know, how to start and finish there, you can talk a lot, it is obvious that, first of all, mechanisms should be created that would stimulate work small and medium-sized businesses, because large businesses are largely in worse conditions, because... they are hit more often, in this regard, small and medium-sized businesses are less dependent on such attacks, but on the other hand , it is necessary to create conditions for them , and definitely we need some kind of adequate and transparent and honest conversation with society about mobilization and

economic reservation, business cannot function in conditions of...paralyzing uncertainty, when they do not know who and how they can enlist in the armed forces, and they will do it completely randomly, in it certainly creates big problems, there is the question of the national bank's completely inadequate monetary policy, extremely opaque, corruption-prone, and it also creates problems for business, for determining what to do, what will happen to the exchange rate, because it is factual. is determined manually by the national bank, what it does with interest rates, and how it stimulates lending even in wartime, it rather generally kills this sphere with its policy, and so on, that is , the question of what needs to be done more than enough is another matter, what i don't expect the current level of professionalism, ethics, and

i don't know what experience and so on from those who are currently in power. they are able to do it effectively, and those who manage ukrainian today have an understanding of the real economic situation in general economy? i think not, because this is the so-called dinning kruger effect, that is, people , due to their incompetence, do not realize that they do not, that they do not understand what is happening, but they do, they are absolutely sure , that they... understand what's going on, but when they start talking, and that's when you realize that actually, the situation is dire, because these people, well, they're talking outright delusion, and it's about both the government and the national bank, yeah and the president's office, if we talk about the situation as much as they can, they can

reforms should take place now in the current conditions of war. demand reforms, how realistic are these demands? what is this mantra about reforms, you know, i'm there in goebbels they prescribe a phrase: when i hear the word culture, i grab a gun, you know, when i hear the word reform, i also have a desire to already grab a gun, why? because reforms are a tool, first you have to understand what you want to do, you have to clearly define what you want... to do it, and then, based on that, you start use some or other tools, and reforms in this case are the very tool that you need to do in order to achieve those e. goals that you want, well, want, aim for, if you do not understand what to do, in fact , and there is no such thing, well, i am already

tired of giving this example about it, but it is very eloquent, the statement of the prime minister that ukraine should become the gray center of europe, well, what do you want from a person with this level of understanding , so that he knows what he needs to do in the country, well, of course... unfortunately, this is not the problem of one person, it is the problem of those who were brought to power in 2019, despite the fact that i have never been a particular fan of prime minister arseniy yasenyuk and groysman, but they look like giants of intelligence against the background of these. from your point of view, what should be measures to stabilize the wartime economy in this sense. again, this is what i said, you need a completely transparent monetary policy so that there is access to credit, a completely transparent

and understandable for business exchange rate situation that will be done by the national bank, because the exchange rate depends 100%, now on the national bank, well, it determines the exchange rate with which, sorry, on which foot they will stand and what they will do with the exchange rate, only they know, in such conditions, it is when it is not transparent that it creates huge problems. for business, you need, i repeat, you need a clear, understandable position regarding the mechanism of mobilization and economic reservation, because again, business must understand what you are doing, you need an adequate budget policy, you, excuse me, when in the conditions of war it is absolutely normal for us to continue to move tiles or build roads, while the armed forces need extremely military ... equipment and everything related to war, then of course this indicates that , that you are doing something wrong, you are not using the funds that you mobilize or that are given to you from the outside in this way, so

i emphasize that this is a set of actions that need to be done, well, here is an example, you know, there was a very demonstrative example, that day we constantly distributed it with khmelnytskyi, the city management over the past 8-10 years, it has been building a model of gas turbine... power generating stations that provided the city with heat and electricity, it is not one, there are six, seven of them, i don't remember how many, so they ensured the stable functioning of the city, but it's been done for years, it's safe to say what you should do here and now, if you haven't done it for many years for one or another city, then you definitely have the answers that will give you the opportunity to exhale and say: we've done everything and we have everything it's going to be good, there's definitely no such answer, we're going to have issues that we're going to have to deal with out there in

fire mode based on what we have right now. thank you, mr. boris, borys kushnirok, economist, chairman of the expert council of the ukrainian analytical center, was in touch with us and we talked with him about what is happening with... the ukrainian economy, and now from ukraine, we will economically move to near east, let's talk with vadym polishchuk, historian, political observer in israel, welcome mr. vadym, good evening, i congratulate you, well, what do you think of us at the moment, there are things going on with the probable end of the conflict, as far as it is generally possible to assume that they will reach some kind of agreement, there is generally such a prospect, well, regarding the agreement with hamas... somehow it doesn’t work out , and most analysts have the impression that hamas does not need this agreement at this stage, and they

want it, their main demand is to stop the war, and then we will talk, and i want the guarantors to be political players, primarily the united states , they called it the last time, so that both china and russia join, and some arab countries. and further , so that they have hostages left, because not all of the hostages in question are in their hands, and then they will somehow hand someone over there, someone is kept for further conversations, negotiations, demands, and so on , and that's why they are pulling them . , or

can somehow scroll a little at a time. but the main goal is really for them to maintain power in the gaza sector, and it doesn't matter what kind of civilian casualties this struggle will cause, but on the inside, how realistic is the idea that it is possible to destroy hamas in gaza, given the level of its influence on the population, and , in principle, the attitude of the population to the force option of solving problems. well, it can be destroyed as a structure or significantly weakened so that it turns into some kind of partisan movement from power in the gas itself, although the latter was a survey of a well-known an arab sociologist, whom even israeli sociologists trust, the level of support for hamas, which is in gaza, which is on the west bank, the jordan river, as it is called, or the judeans of samaria, well, somewhere reaches 70.80%, so

many are already saying what to say, what we are at war with hamas, er, it's such a thing, you know, actually, on our own, on our own, well, actually the war is with the palestinians, because they er, this propaganda of many years, in fact, well, is the basis on which hamas is based , and this palestinian autonomy that many hope for she will come... gas and rule there, she has a level of support, well, there is somewhere around 20%, among all the so-called palestinian arabs, well, the same applies to the arabs, we see that it's like, well, we pretend that we are at war with hizballah, but now the lebanese parliament has decided to pay the families of the dead hizballah fighters somewhere around a million

dollars. support, and in fact it shows that the war is actually with lebanon and not with hezbollah, hezbollah is only the structure that directly participates in this war. and to what extent can it be considered that there can be a real war with lebanon with the israeli state, that is, a real war with cyrano, and not with lebanon, and not with hezbollah fighters as such, to be in... maybe, but for this it is necessary political will and understanding that there have already been threats from iran that it will join this war if there is a full-scale war with lebanon, and it must be understood that hezbollah is hamas at maximum speed, as they say, it has more weapons and her strategic situation is better, and the rear is more powerful, because for her, behind her

in fact, the syrian one as well... will have to wait a lot, but you see that israel any way... to avoid this war, and america is pushing it to this, but france is now joining, but still, the position of the hisb, it largely depends on position of iran. what do you think iran is interested in now? well, iran is interested in weakening israel in any way. direct war, you see, he would not really want to intervene, but

he is betting on the fact that... the united states does not want a full-scale war, primarily the biden administration, it is before its elections wants to come as a peacemaker who settled this middle eastern conflict, prevented a conflict between china and taiwan, maybe from ukraine they would be happy to settle something, but you see, they have now taken such a tougher position regarding the conflict with russia, that is, they have moved from peacemaking to pressure on russia , in fact, and military, here in the middle east they are still playing some kind of peacekeepers and they want to settle something with some kind of peace. is there a danger that now israel is losing international support in the first place? well, he is all i've been losing these months, well, yes, i'm talking about it, losing, losing, but here, first of all, there's danger.