conspiracies, trades, demands and so on, and so they pull, um, the biden administration makes even greater concessions, israel inclines them to them, and then they refuse and wait when they are offered even more interesting, or when a team from iran, to either continue this conflict, or it can somehow turn around little by little, but the main goal is really for them to maintain power in the sector. gas and it doesn't matter what the casualties among the civilian population are, this struggle is drawn out, but on the other hand, how realistic is the idea that it is possible to destroy hamas is in the gas, taking into account the level of its influence on the population, and in principle the attitude of the population to the force option of solving problems, well, it can be destroyed as a structure or a system. weaken it, so that it turns

into some kind of guerrilla movement, from the authorities in gaza, precisely, although the last one was a survey, by a well-known arab sociologist, whom even israeli sociologists trust, the level of support for hamas, which is in gaza, which is on the west bank of the jordan river, as you call it, or the jews of samaria, well, somewhere it reaches 70-80%, that's why many are already saying that... to say that we are at war with hamas is such a thing, you know, in fact, by myself, by myself, well, in fact, the war is going on with the so-called palestinians, because they, with this long-term propaganda, in fact, well, are but the base on which hamas is based, and this palestinian authority, which many hope will come in gas and rule there, it has a level of support. well

, there are somewhere around 20% among all the so-called palestinian arabs, and the same applies to fisbala, we see that it seems like, well, we do pretending that we are at war with hezbollah, but now the lebanese parliament has decided to pay these families of the dead fighters from bala, somewhere around a million dollars in support, and in fact it shows that... the war is actually with lebanon, not with hezbollah, hezbollah is only the structure that directly takes part in this war. and to what extent can it be considered that there can be a real war with lebanon by the israeli state, that is, a real war with siran, and not with lebanon, and not with hezbollah fighters as such, so that there would be a war on the territory iran and so on, maybe, but for...

this requires political will and an understanding that there have already been threats from iran that it will join this war if there is a full-scale war with lebanon, and it must be understood that hezbollah is hamas is at full speed, as they say, it has more weapons, and it has a better strategic situation, and the rear is more powerful, because behind it, behind it , in fact, the syrian regime, and iraq, and iran have access to... lebanon and to the positions of hezbollah, and it will be much more difficult, although the south of lebanon it is not as populated as gaza and it may be easier to fight there, but these mountainous areas, which also have no fortifications built, some underground levels, there will be many surprises there, but you see that israel is trying to avoid this war in any way, and before that inclines him. america, but france has now

joined. but still, the position of hizbollah depends to a large extent on the position of iran. what do you think iran is interested in now? well, iran is interested in any weakening of israel. directly into the war, you see, not so much as i would like to intervene, but he plays on the fact that the united states does not want a full-scale war, first of all - the biden administration, it wants to come to its elections as a peacemaker who settled this middle eastern conflict, did not allow a conflict between china and taiwan, maybe with ukraine, they would be happy to settle something, but you see, they have now taken such a tougher position regarding the conflict with russia, that is, they have moved from peacemaking to actual economic and military pressure on russia, here in the middle east they...

is he still playing some kind of peacemaker and wants to settle something by some kind of peace? is there a danger that now israel is losing international support in the first place? well, he has been losing all these months, and i am talking about it, he is losing, losing, but here, first of all, there is a danger of losing the support of the united states, first of all, the un security council, and well, because of the agreements that are between israel and the united states states, and no matter what would hinder ukraine, it is the status of the main ally outside nato, so get rid of it. military support for any administration would be difficult, but here to somehow vote the wrong way in the security council, that would be a danger, indeed, and this is very much feared in israel, in the government, you see, the government has now shrunk in israel,

that is, the left center left it, that hansa and azinpod, who were so leaders of american politics, actually in the government, and the government. has become tougher on these issues, but less immune to any attacks from the united states, those forces that want to force israel to come to peace at any price, in principle, as far as this government is now allowed to pass any decision, because we know that the right- wing ministers of the far-right government there have already said that if netanyahu there agrees with the american plan, they will withdraw from the coalition, the coalition will fall apart, there will be preparations... and early elections, thus the prime minister the minister is in such a state, on one side there is the united states, on the other side there is a far-right minister, he cannot even reveal his position, well, netanyahu's positions have always been like this, you know, he somehow tried to sweat these difficult situations, let's say

, between reality and both desire and desire somehow, whether he will succeed this time, it is very difficult to say, well, to lose. the government, i think, he does not want, he understands that if elections are called now, then his party will not have such good results as they were last time, and there is a danger of people coming to power who are similar to any plans of the united states, well, first of all, this is the same hans, this is a lapit, who, uh, he will be the leader of any policy, well, as we saw, how he was a fisball player gave gas, well... probable gas fields in the mediterranean sea, and said that now we have agreed with hizbollah, gave them some disputed territory and everything will be fine with hizbullah, well, we saw how everything is fine, the same was said by the people who surrendered to gas at the time, which southern lebanon

was given from under the control of israel, well, now we are all responding to this, but please tell me how you imagine the existence of israel in principle. this concept of peaceful coexistence with neighbors at the expense of territorial agreements, in this case, it has always been the essence of security policy, which made the monks vegen and anwar saddat happy, well, the agreement and the possibility of those countries that in principle recognize the existence of the state of israel, for example, with egypt , it was possible to make such a language that really works, as well, more or less, as long as the royal dynasty exists in jordan. conscious, the same with jordan, such agreements are possible, agreements are possible with arab countries that are somewhere far away, what are these territories in principle, you know, nothing, but how to reach agreements with people who, in principle, do not recognize

israel's right to exist , here are the latest polls from the palestinian arabs, well in they have the concept in their heads that even this concept is two states. for two peoples, it is in them, well, somewhere between 10-15 and 20% finds supporters, no more, what can be agreed with them, that is , they imagine every agreement, that now we have taken a bite of something, and tomorrow we will have something else let's take a bite, let's take another bite, well, until there's nothing left of israel, look at the world map, well, there's not much to bite off here, it's a country... not that small, well, almost microscopic, if we understand that from one not on the part of the palestinians want an agreement with israel and want to dominate the entire territory of the former mandated palestine, right-wing tendencies are intensifying in israel, which is already visible

in the votes for such parties as the party there and the party of tamar bangvir and bezaleil smotrych, who are considered such far-right politicians there even from the classical era. .. from the european point of view, this means that the conflict cannot be resolved in principle, we have to count on a war without an end, well, for now , yes, until the palestinians themselves... or a world in which the existence of israel is possible, an agreement with them is impossible, they can somehow be forced into a temporary arrangement, but they understand again that after some time there will be war again, yes, well , that is, israeli society needs to possibly, like ukrainian society, abandon this idea of ​​living in peace, as in norm, what already? well, how can you live, support the idea of ​​living with people who want to destroy you, and this

concept, they do not give up on it, you see, well, if with russia this concept became so, well, obvious, it was only there 10 years ago that it began to manifest itself , then israel with the arabs this idea, well, the first pogroms on this land started somewhere... centuries are quite so powerful, and then in the 48th year it flared up with new force, arab figures, you can remember, sheikh jerusa, well, the mufti of jerusalem, hussein, i think his name was, he was friends with hitler, they once discussed the idea of ​​extermination of the jews very lively there, and this idea fascinated him, and these ideas live and flourish in this environment, so eh... well, somehow israel managed to survive for how many years in

this environment, but you see, now it is is fueled, the main thing is that in these eyes the palestinian hamas and so on, which they are now giving themselves credit for, and this is supported precisely by this survey, that they are this idea of ​​the palestinians, they got it from some closet, it is a little moldy, which it was already covered and removed. and it was painted with new colors, you see, and they like it very much, they don’t even feel sorry for these victims, this destroyed gas station, that, well, they think that they will now be given money again, they will certainly steal most of it there, but they will restore something there and and went further, but here is what again they actually broke this agreement with saudi arabia, which was already almost at the stage of such implementation, and for china. for iran, for turkey , it is important that this project

of a trade route from india through saudi arabia, israel to europe is disrupted, that is, they actually destroyed the competitor, well, not that they destroyed, but in fact now this project is not on time, it was just very strong competition for this route from china to europe , a long, long route and... you see, china is again in profit, turkey is again in profit, because this route goes through it, iran is the same, well, where- some people from the marxist school, they always say that behind many political events there is always some kind of economy, some kind of money, well, looking at this situation , you can believe it too, thank you mr. vadim, vadim polishchuk, historian and political observer from israel we were in touch. we talked about the situation in the middle east,

the conflict in the region has been going on for 254 days, we know that, by and large, this conflict is currently distracting the attention of many countries from the russian-ukrainian war, which is also interested there vladimir putin, and in this regard it is of course important to understand how this conflict can end, although we have already heard from israeli politicians that the conflict will at least continue until the end of this year, and many believe that this is an optimistic forecast and that in fact the conflict in israel and in ukraine to co-exist in parallel for long months, possibly years, and become the norm of existence for the residents of israel and ukraine in the 20s of the 21st century, this is a conflict situation that may, at best, be interrupted some periods, periods of peace, which we all continue to hope for. we're taking a commercial break now, and we'll be back later, so please don't switch. the verdict with serhii rudenko, from now on in a new two-hour format. even more analytics, even

more important topics, even more top guests: foreign experts, inclusion from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, as well as feedback, you can express your opinion at any time of the day by phone survey, turn on and turn on, verdict with serhiy rudenko, with tuesday to friday from 20 to 22. we continue the politclub program on expresso tv channel , we will talk with oleksiy garan, professor of political science at the kyiv-myhylian academy, scientific director. of the democratic initiative foundation named after ilko kucharev, congratulations, mr. oleksiy, i congratulate you, well, against the background of this peace summit, how do you see the position of the global south, does it have any common position at all? i would say that all is not lost, ah, regarding the common position, we saw

a very contradictory position, and what is common the position really, really does not exist, that is. there is definitely the influence of russia and china, which worked fruitfully enough to level the participation of the countries of the global south in this, ah, in this event, and, but, and, let's say, even from such countries that were represented, however, not at the highest levels, well, let's say, the same mexico, indonesia, and... india, saudi arabia, they abstained, thailand, abstained after, regarding the signing of the final communiqué, but at the same time there are quite a few countries that supported it , and here we can talking about qatar, and this is very important,

about jordan, about ah, yes, who else is there? from bahrain, in latin america there are a lot of countries, including argentina, chile, ecuador and guatemala, costa rica, which were on, and uruguay, by the way, if we look at africa, then there are countries like kenya, ghana, cote d'ivoire, liberia, rwanda. and a number of smaller countries, they also supported this communique, so, well, we can say that we have not succeeded in uniting, say, the entire global south, and there is obviously work in fact, there is a lot ahead, and to be honest, it's hard to imagine how we'll be able

to do it further, well, that's the art of diplomacy, to... do something that seems impossible at the moment, and you understand the practical sense, here well, we united the global south, well, what's next? well, this is your question, which you traditionally ask, when you also said, i remember that we will get a second extended crimean platform, so what, well, we got it, what next, of course, this is a good question, a good question , and in fact, in fact, there is no one on it. a significant answer, because the question arises, indeed, how will this work continue? uh, that is, now if there are three points on which they have decided to continue working, that is, the working delegations will work through them, but will russia go for it? well , again, a big question mark, well

, it is written that ukraine has full sovereignty over the zaporizhia core. instance, but how russia will react to this, well, it is difficult to say, yes, i think that it will most likely not leave there, because this is an attempt to blackmail not only ukraine, and other other countries, i want to remind you that putin demands that ukrainian troops leave the entire territory of the zaporizhia region, even from the part that we control, which is the zaporizhia nuclear power plant, absolutely, absolutely fair, well, i think that, for example, maybe there will be more movement on the point of... food security, yes, because our grain corridor has already been restored and there are really a lot of countries in the world that are interested in this, so i think that there are, let's say, more chances , but imagine the exchange of captives and even the return of ukrainians deported children, we see how

many countries are working on this, including the countries of the global south, and the same qatar and... and aman, and other countries were here, and are being made, movements are being made, returning, gradually, but very little, but very little, that is, this process is very, very long, so i would not like there to be, you know, inflated expectations, and well, the president says that now it will take months to prepare the second summit. and it's months to finish the war, but it's hard for me to imagine how it's going to happen, you know i'll tell you that in we, i think, had overestimated expectations regarding... and the first global peace summit somewhere else, well , six months ago, and then, when, when it became

clear that not everything is going so easily, and that we will reduce even the number of discussed issues from 10 to three, then thank god that if we started at least not to develop eyes... inflated expectations, and we experts also played a role here, and you too, mr. vitaly and others, let's be realistic, what can we do to achieve, we will be able to achieve, that means harm i don't see the holding of these summits, that is, it is another diplomatic initiative, maybe something will come of it, we see that through the un, well, it seems that 141 countries have united there. the state voted for all the right things, but the aggressors are now there, well , let's try to use this

track, as you can say now, in which not only western countries participate, but also non-western countries, but we must be aware that it will be, that it will also be very. not easy. and again, if we say that the next global summit will be will take place in two months, then i think we need to explain here what we expect from it, whether it will be a peace summit, whether it will be a meeting at the level of advisers, or whether it will be working groups, so that once again there are no inflated expectations , and then we start to get frustrated, and why didn't this work, and why didn't that work, again what happened in... 90 countries, even 92 countries, yes, what's not bad, the fact that 80 countries signed the communique , well,

well, well, but it doesn’t end there, well , here the question is why we had overestimated expectations, by the way, are not only ours, western politicians all the time assume that russia will sooner or later be ready for negotiations, but do not explain the mechanism of involvement. to real changes, not to talk about putin's ultimatums, but to real negotiations in which we, ukraine, and russia would appear to be equal parties, and russia would at least agree with the fact of ukraine's existence? well, i could already, i think that in western countries there would still be a turning point, if it happened, yes, but some western figures and leaders, well, the pope himself, yes, i think that... this the breakthrough did not happen, that is, yes, there are people who continue to believe that ukraine should sit down with russia and talk directly, as

the president of switzerland has been saying all the time, that all this is being done in order to bring russia and ukraine to direct negotiations , well, what will it do, especially considering putin's recent statements, that is, yes, i think that is in the minds of some countries. they remain misunderstanding that it is not possible to simply sit down as a victim and agree on something that the aggressor does not want to agree on at all, that it is necessary to continue the pressure, the pressure in various forms, if this peace summit will be, will become such an instrument of pressure, maybe, well, at least partial, then it will be a plus, and if it simply turns into conversations and... about what we will put there at the next meeting, invite russia, let's put it, too, among the participants and we will negotiate with it, well

, it is unlikely to give results, well, then the question arises, in principle, how do we assess the possibilities of international pressure on russia in the near future, as you imagine? i think that this pressure, well, we see from the side, from on the part of... western countries, it is increasing, and in particular the fact that there will be, well, it looks like, finally, the arms deliveries to ukraine will be paid for from the interest on frozen russian assets, this is a plus, of course, that it will increase in general, if military aid to ukraine, it is a plus that economic sanctions will be absorbed. this is pressure and there can be, there can be pressure as well, let's say in the legal sphere, well, putin's announcement

, putin's arrest warrant, yes, which was carried out by the international criminal court, well , but, that is, the pressure can be like that, but, well, on at the moment it is still not enough, not enough yet, although i listened carefully to the experts in your program, they say that gradually it gives results and will give results, well, but it is gradually... it has been going on for too long, of course i would like faster, and what are the chances of speeding up? what is needed, what needs to be done in order to speed up, if we speak, the supply of weapons, economic, i think that this decision is actually about the use of frozen interest on

frozen russians. assets is a very very good step, and collect more weapons for ukraine, well, this is primarily done by the countries of the west, yes, but the countries of the global south, here we can still hope for some, some moral, moral support, and of course here putin, putin is already counting on what, what putin is counting on on the fact that for... western democracies, each of these countries will have its own national elections and they will in one way or another affect the balance of power, well, of course, the results of the elections in the united states will have colossal consequences, the results of early elections parliamentary elections in france, well here the truth is that the president heads foreign policy and

security policy. the president, this is his area of ​​activity, but, well, if some, some government is formed with the participation of le pen, or it will be a minority government, or there will be no stability in the french parliament, well, of course, it will make life difficult for macron as well, which will force him to, let's say, more cautious statements there, or... and to maneuvering, if it were to satisfy both the electorate, because the elections of the 27th year seem to be far away, but this will really be a test of the party of the entire party of macron, macron will no longer be the president, but will this party be able to hold on without macron? this will be a big, big question. i want to return to the global south,

you were in south africa. talked with politicians there, and here is the question of whether we are able to influence such countries, such as if some serious political changes are taking place there, we somehow did not notice this change these days, cyril ramaphosa was just re-elected for a second term as president of the republic of south africa , but for before this re-election, after the last parliamentary elections, where the african national congress of couples did not receive the majority of votes, he had to go to the creation of a government of national agreement from national unity with... the democratic alliance, this is such a liberal party, its leader john stay hazen was in ukraine during war, by the way, one of the few african politicians, not state leaders, namely opposition leaders, visited ukraine, was in lviv, met with politicians there, expressed support for ukraine, and if such parties with an unambiguous position on the war, they get power in the countries of the global rooster, even a part of the power, can we use it? certainly. i

would just like to clarify here that the newly re-elected president, he did propose a government of national unity, yes, but his pro-russian opponents, they did not agree with that, and therefore now there will be a coalition government with, first of all, it is with the democratic an alliance that takes sufficiently pro-ukrainian positions, and secondly... the second will be another partner, or rather, the third partner is, ah, inkata, the inkata party svoboda, yes, that is, it is a party based in the province of kwazulu-natal, ah, so this proukra, this coalition, it will definitely be more, ah, more favorable for ukraine, that is, we...