have real opportunities to really help in the formation of a new government and to look for coalition partners in this government, that is, this is now a completely new, new such game, quite interesting, beyond doubt, let's see how it will look literally there in a few hours , because you ... understand that it's not such an easy decision now, for the right, it's a serious blow, because they were going to be the winners of this election of course, that they're in third place, not first, even without a majority , this suggests that here is this story with mobilization, it came out, of course. here are the first reports

about the already elected deputies, all i can say before you and i break for literally a few minutes is that the former president of the country, françois hollande, who ran for office from the left, was elected as a deputy of the national assembly of france. this is the first information about the elected deputy, and now we will take a break literally for... a few minutes and i will continue. events, events that are happening right now and affect our lives. of course, the news feed reports on them. however, it was not enough to know what was happening. it is necessary to understand. antin borkovskii and invited experts soberly assess the events, analyze them, modeling our future. every saturday at 13:10 with a repeat on sunday at 10:10. studio zahid with anton borkovsky at espresso. a journalist

who joined the armed forces, a political expert who became a special agent, taras berezovyts in a new project on espresso. the real front is a thorough analysis of the main events. reports, comments of leading experts and experts analytics from the major of the armed forces. how to make sense of disturbing news and distinguish truth from hostile propaganda. the real front program with taras berezovets every saturday at 9:30 p.m. on espresso. we continue the politclub program on the espresso tv channel. and now we will talk with oleksandr soshko, executive director of the international renaissance front of the renaissance foundation. to entangle fonda front, mr. oleksandr, is now absolute, a trend. glad to see you.

so, so, let's talk about let's start with washington nato summit, in principle, what do you hope for, this meeting will actually take place next week, what can we talk about, will it not be another disappointment for ukrainians? well, unfortunately, we would like more, yes, we know exactly what we would like, which is an invitation to membership, but also we have understood for a long time that now... the member countries are not ready to give us such an invitation because, well, fear of war, there is a fear of involving one's countries and peoples in wars, and one can psychologically understand this very well, so, well, in principle, i didn't even have such expectations that we would receive this invitation now, so there are no disappointments, but i understand that many people can have such disappointment, because in principle there is a lot of fatigue from not ... certainty , and

nato is the institution that could give us certainty and confidence in the future, but now they won't be able to do it and we have to be calm about it. we are dealing with 32 societies, peoples, and it is no big secret that these peoples are not they want to see themselves in the war directly, that's why. we have this reality and, but what we can get are far from empty things, i.e. we will really have the opportunity to hear from the member countries, what means and resources ukraine can get in the near term with regard to our defense needs . i think that will be said, first of all, obviously, the country is waiting for ... additional

decisions on air defense systems, but it is clear that not only that, so i think the question now is only how long... term commitments will be announced at the summit, that is, i know for sure that in the short term there will be serious promises, both financial and military-technical, but how long they will be, this is very important for us , that is , it is one thing to hear certain assurances for months ahead, another thing for years ahead, and this is precisely the element of that uncertainty regarding which we will get an answer only at the summit itself, but he will say... please, how can give some assurances for years ahead, when we do not know with you what will happen in the united states in a few months? well, we are used to the fact that in democratic, stable states, there is a certain tenacity of state policy, which is based on understanding one's national interests from

a strategic perspective. yes, it is obvious that today's world is much more turbulent than the one we are used to , including... regarding internal processes in key countries, yes, but we understand that there is a world in which the one who sees the long term will win, that's why even if, you understand, governments make decisions based on their actual obligations, current understanding of the situation in the world, yes, even if they cannot guarantee that everything will be the same after the change of government. will continue, however, they have the power as of now to make decisions, i think that if such decisions are made and announced, it will not be so easy for the next government to reverse them. and tell me, in principle,

the americans always said that we would have, that they would be so serious for ukraine decisions to be made at this summit that ukraine will not be disappointed, well, we were disappointed in... freedom, let's say, what is needed so that we are not disappointed, what should it look like, there is no need to be fascinated, i am always, i i'm rarely disappointed because i have no special, special expectation that the current governments of democratic countries will be so decisive as to make decisions that in the long run could lead them to... war, i don't expect it now, that's why in fact, it is easier to perceive the conditional ones disappointment, yes, but at the same time nothing denies, nothing, no, in fact, does not prevent us from receiving additional

resources from the member countries of the alliance, even if these resources, well, are insufficient, but they will never be enough, oh, but we understand. that the majority of nato member countries have unused resources that, in principle, can be provided to ukraine, and this is precisely the question for them, for the governments, to what extent they are ready to share these resources already now and also to undertake obligations at least for two-three-year perspective. in your opinion, mr. oleksandr, to what extent does this affect this situation now. should i say pre-election instability in the united states? it certainly has a lot of influence, and we see in the last week, additional factors of tension related to the unsuccessful biden debate, related to the fact that today there is not even certainty who

is running, yes, and internal, internal friction in the middle of the democratic party, whether to change the candidate or not, all this does not add confidence. the reliability of the situation, well, that's it those things that we cannot influence, yes, that is, here we must understand that we are dealing only with the world that exists, and we must find ways to work even with this world, and what do you think, what do you really think, that biden might not run, that's an unlikely prospect as of... today, but hey, maybe that could change, yes, we understand that there's serious friction, and that there's a strong case for switching candidates, but at the same time, if there was, like, some unequivocally winning model, for example, if everyone

understood that kamala harris has excellent chances to win against trump, because she does not have those disadvantages and problems with age. which biden has, then the situation would be different, there would be more supporters of such a change, but there is no such thing, because everyone understands that kamala harris is less charismatic, less ... authoritative than joe biden himself, and actually, therefore, there is no special illusions that she can become that same thing, that magic wand, even though she is younger, that she has no problems with age, yes, but her rating is even lower than biden's rating, that's why, actually, there is no confidence that the replacement itself at the moment can fundamentally change the situation for ... even if this candidate is younger, different and so on, succeed, and if it is not haris, then

who, it is one of the other leaders, say governors who represent the democratic party, well then you have to start the primaries from scratch, then you have to look for support, then you have to bring in this element of intra-party struggle at the very moment when consolidation is needed, and therefore i am not sure that the democratic party can... afford now plunge into this whirlpool of competition around the candidate, that's why, actually, yes, this is a very serious sentiment within those who support the democratic party that biden cannot, that he simply cannot be president for the next four years, he can win and theoretically possible, but to be the president, they doubt this more and more, and that is why they are trying to find... some solution, that is their right, but i still do not see, i still do not see

ways to implement this, well, here too already the question is quite important, how much in this one situation, in this situation we can say that the democrats are able to win the elections, and that they will be in a panic all the time, the democrats are already panicking, the republicans are not panicking about trump. there is no doubt there, so to speak, well, that's right, i'm sorry, i had to turn on the light here, because here is our electrical problems, i would like to say that no one has this solution in the democratic party, we can say that this a historically unprecedented situation in which no one knows how to act, there are not even procedures, there are no such cases when after prijmaries they would be questioned. the actual seat of the candidate who won these primaries, which is biden, but

the situation has really changed not in his favor, will he be able to fix it, of course , maybe two or three successful cases of his public speeches in the coming days could convince at least a significant part of his supporters, in the fact that he can still be a worthy competitor to trump, and... the president for the next four years, this is the chance he still has, but in general the situation for the democratic party at the moment, well , it is not optimistic, let's say, in principle, how much the united states can now continue its support for ukraine in a situation when no one knows what the results of the presidential election will be, and donald trump looks at the problem in a completely different way , than joseph biden and does not hide it. as long as there are powers of the acting government, the current president, they can do everything in accordance with

their constitutional powers, but at the same time, it is very important, of course, to predict and qualitatively communicate with that camp that can come to power, yes, i understand that the situation for ukraine will be completely different if there is trump, but again , trump is not completely incognito, yes, we know a little bit who... he is, we know what entry points, we know the arguments that work in the trumpist camp, uh, and so, well, okay, it's going to be a bad situation, but we have to find a way to give advice if he suddenly wins, and what do you think, mr. alexander, trump himself wants to communicate with us, but ukraine may want to communicate with the camp trump, how interesting is it for trump to communicate with ukraine in this situation? this is also an important question, well, for yes, i understand what you

mean, because for trump, ukraine is a somewhat toxic subject, yes, due to various circumstances, in particular the history of his impeachment. emotionally, he does not treat ukraine very well. and he will not become our ardent supporter. but at the same time, there are certain, er, certain interests. and certain circumstances that will not allow him to simply turn 180°, it will not be like that either, it is also like that, so there is considerable room for opportunity. in order to talk to the republicans, to talk to those who will play a key role in his camp, and even to myself, there i do not think that this way will be completely closed, even if we do not have a certain emotional agreement

with him, with his moods, but it will have to be done. tell me, do you understand at all what trump is really thinking of doing with the russian-ukrainian war, we have already seen different versions of the plan, different versions of statements, you have an idea of ​​what he wants in general, from that set of facts, the totality of the facts, yes, i think he would seek a freeze on the war, a freeze on the war roughly along the current demarcation line. in addition, from what i understand, he may also offer to sacrifice the prospect of ukraine's membership in nato. these are the two things that i see for sure, all the others are still not clear, he himself, he himself does not know what there is about other things, and it is obvious that putin will have other

things, it is obvious that putin will not satisfy only these two positions, he will want something else. and here the question is, to what extent and what will trump think at that moment, and if donald trump does not want to make concessions to putin? well, then, again, the operational space is going to exist for us, and it's going to be important to have those channels of communication with trump that won't allow, say, those channels. to be monopolized by those who are not on our side. i am very interested to watch, now this story is unfolding. i imagine that tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, orbán will come there to see trump. he will come to beijing tomorrow, mr. alexander, his plane is already on its way to china. and i do not rule out that he is then he will go to trump. i do not rule it out, i also

agree, yes. that's it. so this game has already begun. and it is obvious that she is far from it. ideal for us, but i wouldn't say that it is hopeless, we have to operate with the opportunities that are available. thank you, mr. oleksandr, oleksandr soshko, executive director of the international revival fund, was in touch with us. now to the middle east. serhii danilov, deputy director of the middle eastern studies center, is in touch with us. congratulations, mr. serhiy. good evening, greetings to mr. vitaly. well, let's start with iranian elections. when it turned out that there are exclusively conservative candidates in the list of candidates for the... elections of the president of iran, because the iranian population is somehow not very interested in elections, and if there is a reformer,

a person with such a reputation, they will go to the elections, well, it must be said that a large number did not go anyway, then when masud pazeshk... entered the second round of elections, it was believed that he would not enter there, that there would be two representatives of conservatives, mr. halybav, who was considered the most convenient candidate for moscow, and mr. jalili, such an ultraconservative , that they will be in the second round, masud podishkyan entered, all the observers said, excuse me, but he will not win, because the candidate of the conservatives will win, even khameneni spoke against the position that he expressed during his pre-election campaign the campaign of masoud pezeshkian, and he won the election by a 10% gap with the ultraconservative candidate, and now everyone says, so what, nothing will change, but somehow it all looks strange, but it will change a lot, well, in general, that's the talk that the president in iran has no influence on anything, is a secondary figure, they have reasons, but, but the president actually has sufficient

opportunities to deploy his people, firstly, secondly, he is entrusted with... to correct the situation with the economy, because actually social standards, the economy, the standard of living were at the heart of these elections, and the tension, the main social and political tension that exists in iranian society, the ruling group around rakhbar, it around the supreme leader, they understand that if they don't let off steam now, it is not known how... the whole thing will explode the situation, they had enough of the 22nd and 23rd years, when they barely kept the situation under control, someone will have to be blamed for the fact that the situation is not changing. iran is on the verge of a very serious upheaval, regardless of whether the current president-elect succeeds in doing something or not.

because the tension is high enough, and there is another factor, it turned out that the contradictions in the conservative camp are very big, and the sepahi corps is not united, and the mule corporation is not united, there are... very different interests and very different ideas inside of each of these corporations, which we outwardly believe to be so united and so solidary within themselves. and yet, how might it look now, what will massoud pizushkian do, will he really try to improve relations with the united states? well, he will try bargain, that's for sure. if there is no trump. it is possible that he is bargaining for something, if there is trump, then he will have no chance to bargain, and in general, to what extent does this reflect the point of view of iranian society, or is it

an intra-clan struggle, which is so expressed in the elections? no, no, no, no, the turnout, well, all the regional and iranian observers say that this is actually the collapse of the regime, and the last protest, which was in 22-23 years, was held... under the slogan of the death of islamic republic, it was held under the slogans of returning to the simple of the republic of iran or the republic of iran, this absolutely reflects the point of view of the absolute majority of citizens, 25 million people live below the poverty line out of 806, 11 million people are related to the corps, that is, relatives for... they and the people who are their families there, 11 million, and these 11 million did not come to the elections, that is, even those who

are considered the support, the basis of the regime, ignored, expressed their protest against this situation, against the fact that they said that they do not believe in these elections, in this the regime, not specific persons, already the regime and that one the social structure that has developed in iran, therefore... well, the situation is very serious, they will have to do something, if nothing happens behind their backs, we will see the next revolution, that's for sure, well, that is, he needs to liberalize the regime, he needs to liberalize it so that to smash to pieces, gorbachev also came to soften, to give a little freedom, and somehow we will get out of there, and... pazeshkyan and rakhbar in general are facing similar challenges of the growth of nationalisms, by the way, a very interesting fact, but

no one cannot say what contribution to the victory pazeshkyan of the successful war that azerbaijan waged against armenia, and in general this success of azerbaijan, yes, because who voted for him, they voted for him in the first place... not just an azerbaijani, he conducted his presidential campaign, speaking in the azerbaijani language, he promises azerbaijani schools at last, which is provided by the law of iran, by the way , he spoke in azerbaijani even in tehran, not only in tabriz or there in east or west azerbaijan, he was supported entirely by the kurds, the baluchis of sistan, i i read that he also speaks kurdish. this is also not an unusual situation for the iranian elite, well, he is accused of being a kurd, in fact he is not a kurd, but he is able, knows and can speak the kurdish language, and iran

is facing the challenges that they have 25 million people living only at the expense of coupons, and that they receive a basic set of humanitarian products, in fact, so as not to die of hunger, but they have very large disparities. of the budget division between regions and provinces with minority populations receive a much smaller percentage compared to populated provinces by the persians, the movement for women's rights has not gone anywhere, and by the way, pazeshkyan is also leaving, one of the factors why he won, he promised that the law on the hijab would be softened or not enforced to the extent that it... was enforced under e-rais, and by the way, about the influence of the president, the law on hijab was pure and exclusively the prerogative

of the previous one. the dead president, he wanted it, he carried it out, and he got a revolutionary situation, no supreme leader has carried it out, the president has, especially the president who will obviously be watching, how will power be transferred to the new arahbar, this delicate moment, which regime can just burst as a result of internal tensions, well, that is, you don't think that... there is some kind of coalition of those who want to preserve the islamic republic and thus promote pezeshkyan, i read texts where it was said that there were whole clans united around such an opportunity, among them the clan of the grandson of yotala khomeini, the founder of the islamic republic of iran, and the clan of the son of yotala khamenenia, who is now claiming the role of supreme leader, they all found

a common language among themselves. there is such a thing, well, let's remember, one of those who supported gorbachev was part of the politburo, the old guard, who also united, but uniting around some figure there, a certain historical moment does not necessarily mean that the result will be what are they predicting or aiming for? in principle, if we talk... about possible foreign policy consequences, do you think that iran can refuse such active support of its proxy forces? well, this is precisely the prerogative of sipakh, the corps and supreme leader. trump, v as a condition for the continuation of the nuclear agreement , he put forward exactly this as the first point, that is, the refusal of regional expansion. obama,

when he signed the nuclear agreement in the 15th year, at the last moment withdrew this, this line, this paragraph in the agreement, well, there were two withdrawals about the missile program and about regional expansion, but now they will not refuse, iran, according to and the legislation and representation of the mule corporation, which in fact rules them, is not'. the state, but is the shiite ummah, and in this sense they doctrinally and legislatively cannot refuse expansion, they will go as much as they are given. what do you think about this new attempt at negotiations between israel and hamas, how realistic can it be now? well hamas went to hizballa and everyone was cheering, they say

that... they will come to an agreement, everyone is waiting for the prime minister of israel in washington, where he will announce that the operation is complete, but i would say that it is 50/50, how to meet a dinosaur on the streets of kyiv, at the last moment something will happen again, there will be some shelling, and all this truce will be canceled, and what are the grounds for the truce, well, in principle, it is the same plan, which was presented by the... people, and they are bargaining for details there, well, the reasons from the united states are the same, they need the elections to be held without this background and for israel not to start an invasion of lebanon, here is netanyahu, for netanyahu the americans are pressuring him that he will not get anything.