this is a small step, but if it is suitable, then go and protect your family, first of all, family, family, then the state, because there is something that says a lot, well, the state did not give me anything, the state never gave me anything at all i gave, you understand, then go for the family, you have to be a man, there is a war and great trouble in our country.

congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel, the main events of the week, the main trends, the main opinions of our experts. we start today's conversation with serhiy rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine, a member of the committee of the verkhovna rada of ukraine on national security, defense and intelligence, he is in our studio, congratulations, mr. serhiy. congratulations. let's start with the topic of change, because many people are discussing it now. in every forum they say that it is necessary to create the conditions for negotiations with the russian federation, it is necessary to create certain conditions, someone says that the conditions should be created by force, like boris johnson, someone says that it is necessary to talk to putin and find out about his interests , like viktor orban, but also in ukrainian in society, we see this narrative, when people say, oh, we don't have the strength anymore, we need to talk, and i wonder how realistic the attitude towards negotiations is in general in a situation when russia... does not

look like a country that seriously wants some real negotiations, not conditions for surrender, which it has been putting forward since february 2022, but real negotiations? well , the thing is that i talk about the negotiations as much as the war continues, just now, why weren’t these conversations now, let’s say, of a higher degree and wider circles, wider, let’s say, on different platforms are discussed, because the same machine. war, which has been talked about for a very long time, it has actually accumulated, it has accumulated in everyone, in the military, in civilians, in ukraine, in russia, in the west, and whenever the degree of this fatigue has increased significantly enough, even sociological surveys show that the number of people who are already ready for these changes in one way or another, to one degree or another, the percentage of these people has increased, it is clear that they are talking about this topic. more and more clean, but are they possible or

there is a foundation for them, i still don’t see this foundation, because currently we have two ultimatums, well let’s call things by their names, one ultimatum is called zelensky’s peace formula, with all due respect to what is stated there, it is not the peace formula is an ultimatum, another peace formula, or putin's peace proposals are the same ultimatum, but with a different sign, it is clear that finding points of contact will be in... extremely difficult, accordingly, i still do not see the basis of the foundation for to create some conditions, prerequisites in order to pro agree something well, the question is that ukraine can change its conditions, on which negotiations can begin, because it can be, so to speak, chained to the wall by reality, say, there is less of a decrease in western aid, or the fatigue of the society from the war, which you talked about, but russia, why should it... give up the idea

that it should control the occupied territories, that it should seek neutral status for ukraine. and she will not refuse. that's the problem. in fact, today it can to be the basis for an agreement to end the war. regarding some kind of freezing of the conflict for some indefinite or definite period. but for the sake of peace, i do not think that there is such a basis, and it will appear in the near future. it's just that now the situation is still complicated by the fact that... europe is divided, the states are confused and the last elections in europe and the upcoming elections in the united states, they force everyone to depend on the fact that in one way or another the influence on the course of events depends on the course of events, because this war depends not only on the military who are fighting, although it is clear that first of all from them, they are trying to find some points of contact, some basis for agreeing at least on a ceasefire, on one or another terms, it is clear that ukraine

will not make territorial concessions under any... circumstances, it is clear , that putin will not, under any circumstances , let anyone, at least somehow, perceive this as his defeat, the only problem is that... i think that putin is actually ready to fight long enough, i don't know what he has in my head, i think not many people actually know what's on his mind, maybe only he knows, and maybe he doesn't know, but the fact is that russia is capable of maintaining a military conflict at the level at which it is happening now, and this, i think, is a completely objective assessment , another couple or three years, at least, on the one hand, on the other hand, the economy, which really ... feels a certain uplift due to the transition to military rails, it is overheating, and this can lead to negative consequences in the future, moreover, the russian army is also getting tired, despite the fact that it has much more financial resources, technical resources, they also get tired there,

they also bleed to death there, they suffer huge losses, and on the one hand , the military tells him that there is a year and a half at the most and we can achieve a complete military victory, and on the other hand they tell him, but ... you may have problems with the economy in two years, and you may have problems with the mobilization resource and with the effectiveness of your armed forces, even numerical ones, there may be a problem already in a year and a half, and here between these, and these are mutually exclusive things, however, absolutely yes, and therefore, on the one hand, he is trying to improve his conditions for theoretical negotiations now, trying to put pressure on various directions of the theater of war, and on the other hand, well, if he has... and he is in it will believe that he will be able to obtain a complete victory, or a great victory by military means, without resorting to any concessions, then he will press for it. and what is a complete victory, a complete capture of ukraine? a complete victory, in my understanding, is for russia, it is a controlled

ukraine, it is not necessarily a physical capture of the entire territory, it is an influence on the government, it is an influence on the authorities, it is an influence on political processes. here, this is a fixed neutral status, this is a reduction of the armed forces, that is, this is a situation in which moscow influences kyiv, indirectly or directly, but completely, in one or another format, in one or another form, but in any case, even if you imagine that there is peace and there are some peaceful conditions, such are unfavorable for ukraine there, well, relatively speaking, neutral status, as you say, refusal to join nato, even de facto you... occupied territories by the russians, even without a legal decision, which looks incredible today, which looks incredible today, but still, even in such a country elections are held and how can russia control the elections, it has already tried several times to control the ukrainian elections and what came out of it is true, but if we are talking about his goal, about his aspirations, and

not about the realities of life, i believe that today the situation in which russia will control ukraine is almost a fantasy, but it can be a very... unfavorable scenario, but to imagine a situation where ukraine returns to russia's orbit and becomes, relatively speaking, the second belarus there, i cannot imagine such a thing, even under the worst scenarios, but then the question arises, even under the conditions there, let's say significant territorial losses, significant territorial losses are a kind of fascination in the east and south, relatively speaking, but as far as i understand, putin is not interested in scraps of territory, that's right, no. but i say again, he is under the influence of the military, who convince him that now the pendulum has swung in the other direction, and under the conditions of such an intensity of the conflict, under the conditions that exist today, and

theoretically also under the condition of a decrease in military and financial aid from the west, in one and a half to two years, russia will in principle be able to inflict a military defeat in... the country and then dictate any conditions, as far as i understand, he believes in this, i say again, i do not know what is in his head, but from what from the information that yes, judging by everything, he came to exactly such a conclusion, and that's why he absolutely does not need to conduct it now some realistic negotiations, which he is talking about, absolutely, i think, i say again, there is no basis for peace negotiations at all, there are theoretical prerequisites for an agreement on a cease-fire, and because in... ukraine, the ukrainian armed forces are tired, because russia and the russian armed forces are tired, although no one will ever admit it out loud, but this is also true, because despite a sufficiently large, i say again, a sufficiently large resource of technical,

material, military support, despite a much wider and more mobilization resource, the russian troops are running out of steam, it is difficult enough for them, i.e. motivated, qualified fighters and commanders... they are becoming less and less, i.e. the tactical victories they have won recently, they succeed at a very high price, well, but then there is the question is, what is the point of moscow wanting some... in this situation, if putin believes in victory in a year and a half, what gives him the suspension of hostilities ? i think that the talks about negotiations coming from russia basically serve two purposes. the first is, well, let's say yes, paying attention is a certain pass to trump, on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is a game of preemption in case. if, after all , the situation, again, the pendulum swings in the other direction, it is more profitable for him now, when he has

an advantage, when he dictates the language from a position of strength, he thinks that it is much better to hint at negotiations now than when the situation may change , theoretically it can change, it is very difficult, but there are also a lot of smart people, experienced, starting with radakin and kavoli, they say that war to exhaustion, even when... seemingly disproportional rivals fight among themselves, it can carry a lot of surprises, a lot of different ones for both sides, especially since the statistics show earlier, the one who physically, territorially , militarily bigger, he usually won wars, but if we take the wars of the last two centuries, then more than half of the wars were won by the small ones over the big ones, because the situation is not linear now and wars. has changed a little, this does not mean that this is, say, a certain trend, but there is there is also such a tendency, but why are the countries

of the global south, first of all china , trying to intervene in this process, they would really like to ensure some kind of truce in the war, or is it just a strengthening of their role, i think that on the one hand they want to support the status of a great power, on the other hand, i think that china itself, it wants to control the process to a certain extent, that is, china is coming out, as far as i understand it, from ... that if god forbid or god forbid, i don't know which point of view dominates them, it will work out for some negotiating rails, he has to control this process because china is actually interested in this war continuing, he is not interested in russia losing, i don't think he is completely convinced and wants russia to win, but he wants , for this war to continue, because russia's dependence on china during this war only increases, and it is to china's advantage, if russia loses, china is weaker, if russia wins, russia becomes a more powerful player and it is also not beneficial for china, but

now , when russia spends its strength, in that including and expends military and financial forces, this is beneficial to china, and therefore it wants to be involved in this process in order to correct it, but if now they say that there, for example, the west is primarily trying to control the escalation, then china from its side also wants to control this escalation, and it is clear that he is motivated by the status of a great power. he forces katai to realize that he must have a peace plan, he must be at the center of that process. well, by the way, there is another moment of truce, but can't there be a motive in which the interests coincide of the west and russia, if you will, unexpectedly, this is the moment of the reset of the ukrainian government, that is, russia may think that the truce, which will lead to the elections in ukraine, will give an opportunity to choose a more ready for some disappointing... compromises in the administration, well, not a party war, because for her zelensky is the party of war, and the west may believe that after 5 years

there is also a certain exhaustion of power, the partial loss is not so much of legitimacy as of trust on the part of the population, and the new government will be able to continue with greater opportunities this conflict situation, and therefore it is necessary to cease fire in order to give an opportunity to take place in the electoral process, such a motive may exist for the next there, let's say months. well, let's say, first of all, i don't really understand honestly what the point of view of the collective measure is now, because in my opinion, the position of the european union does not always coincide with the position of the united states, on the one hand, and on the other hand, within the european union there are at least three or four different views on how this war should end, what support should be and what, exactly how and when to make the european union, and these disputes continue, further now there is a certain reset. within the eu, and the strengthening of both the extreme right and the extreme left, and those, they are

fundamental enemies among themselves, but they are united in terms of unwillingness to help ukraine. orban's activism is not so much related to the fact that he is the way he is, but also to the fact that he feels it very clearly, as an experienced politician, no matter how someone treats orban. on the other hand, it is not entirely clear what the position of the united states will be. i don't know... who will win the presidential race, but what trump's position will be, and by the way, what harris's position will be, no one really knows, because they are completely different, but from the people's point of view. who know both of them, they say that they are united by one single thing, they are not predictable, both of them, haris too, haris too, in particular in matters of foreign policy, which for her is not very close, and in which, and therefore, but to imagine , that now in the coming months, if we are talking about months, they have agreed on some kind of joint pressure on ukraine in order to

cease fire, lift martial law, hold elections, reset the government, it's hard for me to imagine. it's firstly and secondly, well, i'm like, okay, i don't really imagine the election, but even if it happened, and what will change, well, i don't think anything will change, i say, how can they look at it from the outside, i do not think that they are so naive, that they do not fully understand russia's ukraine, the ukrainian-russian war and our domestic problems, unfortunately, we have seen this many times, but i do not think that they so naive that they think... can something fundamentally change, there really are a certain number of politicians, there are certain circles, there are certain countries, even, which for some reason have this fetish, the reset of power, democratic elections, although i can't imagine how it is possible to hold democratic elections in conditions of war, but for them it is a matter of principle, but in conditions of an armistice, it is certainly possible to hold democratic elections in conditions, well, in conditions of an armistice, as a condition,

if this armistice is observed by russia, and i believe it very little, i... do you think in general, the united states and the russian federation maintain some contacts between themselves that would allow us to talk about escalation control, this strange story with andrii bilousov's call to lloyd austin, were they talking about some ukrainian special operation, the question is not even about the special operation, it turns out that the ministers of defense , ukraine, russia and the united states can confidentially discuss such contentious things? well, i can neither confirm nor deny this information, because i don't know if it's rumours, fables, gossip, or if it's a real fact, that... that the united states and the russian federation maintain contacts, well, this has been acknowledged by officials in washington and moscow, and it would be surprising if they did not, well , at least given the fact that the two most powerful nuclear countries, well, they have to, if they are one one was not treated, whatever the official rhetoric, they should maintain relations, at least working, at least in some issues, in terms of

escalation control, which i think both the united states and russia are trying to control. escalation, but they do it not jointly, but each one individually, each of them has their own set of mechanisms, tools, how to do it, and accordingly, the fact that they coordinate their actions, well, it's hard for me to imagine how to fight in general with this war fatigue that exists in public opinion , even not only of ukraine, but also of the west, we saw this, by the way, after the attack on the ahmadiyya women, which did not cause a particular resonance in the world community, in the media. although, as a rule, such events appear on the front pages, in the very first minutes after they happen, look at this story there in the gas sector, there is a shelling of a school, a much lower level of consequences, but much more attention, it depends, well, in my opinion, i don't know if there is some universal answer, some

universal recipe, i think that the right thing is to be flexible about... structured information policy, this information policy is schematic, but it was built and was effective at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, and then it follows a certain inertia, and today the level, quality, format of this information policy with regard to the internal audience, and with regard, especially to the external audience, he does not withstand criticism, it has not changed, and it is precisely about this national information policy, which could... of course, with the support of diplomats, with the support of politicians, first of all the leading ones, influence the attitude to the ukrainian war, to ukraine, this information the policy was not developed properly, well, and one more point, this, well, unfortunately, i will not say anything new, in order to change the attitude towards ukraine, in order for this fatigue

to stop, for it to weaken, for it to diminish , we need victories, they are for... it is extremely difficult to win under the condition that if these victories appear, as it happened, for example, in the fall of 22, then both inside the country and outside it will be much easier to convince the world that ukraine can win, because now this there is despair that ukraine can win, but it has actually returned to the state of february 22, when practically no one believed in it, that is, practically it is not tired of. victory or defeat is well... this is a detonator using military language, because in reality, when guilt becomes routine,

it becomes a routine in the cities, it becomes a routine in the columns of newspapers, then it is very difficult to arouse one 's emotions, empathy is dulled, and this also applies to ukrainian citizens, unfortunately, but this is a fact, and this would happen in any other country under similar circumstances, well , it is clear that if you are sitting behind thousands... from here, then it is very difficult for you to be moved by anything, especially after everything that could be moved by you already seemed to have happened, but the supply of the latest western weapons, it can change the situation in the direction of some advantages of the ukrainian army, maybe, but we are not talking about the newest western weapons, if we are really talking about the newest, at the moment, neither about any extremely new models, nor about theirs. a sufficient amount, in fact, in this sense , a certain control of escalation is taking place, it is partly due to objective reasons, well, let's say, insufficient

amount of the means that ukraine needs, even in the warehouses of the united states, but often it is due to subjective factors, subjective objective factors, because for some reason these conditionals still exist in cities red lines are drawn, beyond which it is impossible to cross. there is always a risk of this specter of the third world war, a nuclear catastrophe, which putin is playing with, he has a whole set of factors with the help of which he is trying to control this escalation, including this blackmail, so about some extremely new ones, why not to go far, if we are not allowed to hit with long-range weapons... where we need to go, and this actually applies not only to the territory of russia, but, sorry, sometimes also to the territory of occupied ukraine, we have to agree on almost every goal with those who

provided us with weapons, well, it is very difficult to really wage war under such conditions, this is not the only reason why this war slows down, which, this is not the only problem we face, but it is also problem, but the question arises under what conditions it can be changed, but it has already been said several times, you can beat. you can't hit, you can hit, you can't hit, we don't even have accurate information, it's possible or not, well , let's fantasize, if, well, let's call a spade a spade, if at the head of the united there will be states, there will be a person more determined than the current president of the united states, who will define for himself the farthest red line possible, and ... it does not matter if he is a democrat or a republican, if he makes up his mind and allows himself a certain risk, a certain leadership, as we can say now, then

the situation may change significantly, and this applies not only to the permission, let's say, to use long-range weapons there, it also applies to the nature, and let's say so, the timeliness of providing military assistance and in general. to be a politician who has an attitude towards this war will be like the war he is waging, even if he does not directly take part in it, because no matter what anyone says, for all western leaders, with rare exceptions, this war is infinitely far away, and they do not consider themselves but participants in it the process of the process, and they do not really think that there is a serious threat, let's say, a collision. the objective threat of a collision between nato and russia there, and that is why they are so afraid of this unplanned occasion, which could

lead to this war. they do not believe that russia threatens, this applies even to most of them who publicly say that russia is a threat there, they say it, but they do not fully believe it, but why then they rearm, create new conditions for the military service of their citizens, that all this is not there, but it has appeared so far... irrational fear, irrational fear, why did it appear, because, well, what was nato, what was, let's say, the western military world for many years, this there was such a bureaucracy, it was a system which disarmed, there was a system that, let's say, was covered with moss, and they, in this peace-loving mood, relied on the analysis given to them. analytical centers, and when it suddenly turned out that these intelligence and these analytical centers could be wrong, so far there was just such an irrational fear,

this fear... has not yet grown into the awareness that there is a real threat, it has only appeared fear of this threat, and guided by this fear, they looked at their arsenals, storage bases, warehouses and found out what was there it is empty, or there is rust and rats, and they began to arm themselves little by little out of fear, but this is not yet an awareness of a real threat, if it were otherwise, the production of shells, gunpowder and military equipment would not be from... now it is at the level commercial need, now it is not a state need, immediately arm yourself. the united states has three times less artillery than russia. are there problems for the united states, given its really powerful defense-industrial complex , to nullify this difference, or even create an advantage? no why don't they because so far they do not see such a threat for themselves, well, it's time to say something about

the germans. or the french, and russia is a real threat to nato, given what it has achieved in ukraine in these 2.5 years. well , it's hard to judge, well, let's try to assess: russia is a threat for one simple reason: russia is a big country with a lot of resources and, shall we say, an insane ruler. can russia conquer all of western europe? i have a huge doubt. is it possible? she will start a war in europe, i have almost no doubts here, they are in brussels, in in paris, i don’t know how in london, in berlin and, for example, in athens for sure, or in rome, but if putin goes further, if he likes it, despite the threat of a nuclear conflict, despite the losses, theoretically

he can afford it, he... in fact , all this time, he is like a child, he evaluates the limit of what is allowed, he goes there, well, like water, it goes where, where it can flow, well, that means, that, in principle , the defeat in ukraine is precisely there, it guarantees that the war will not continue further, in my opinion absolutely not, it's actually a bit like the story with mussolini and hitler, for some reason everyone used to appeal to... to munich in the infamous year of 38, but in fact it still started much earlier, it started when the league of nations and the winning countries so the so-called swallowed abyssinia, then how they swallowed the deployment of troops in the demilitarized rhenish zone, how they closed their eyes to the actual intervention of italy and germany in the military conflict in spain, and the anschluss of austria, the anschluss of austria was already

further, yes. well, and then there were sudeten people, and every time they said, well, this is exactly the point after which europe will not be afraid of another big world war, i don't remember who was the prime minister then in the mid-30s, baldwin, it seems to chamberlin, and when they came to him with the demand to increase defense spending, he then said to drink an aspirin and calm down, this even remained in the protocols of the british government, in the transcripts, so... they were always told that as the military, they always prepare for past wars, so do politicians and diplomats , they rely on past peace agreements, when it seems to everyone that you can always find some historical analogue, in fact there are historical analogues that directly deny this, i think that it is just the opposite, if due to, or rather due to the pressure of the west, ukraine will be forced to sign some kind of agreement, without

an agreement, then putin will take it as his victory, as a sign, in ukraine, he will go somewhere else, i don't know, to kazakhstan or to estonia, but he will definitely go somewhere else. thank you, mr. sergey. serhii rakhmanin, people's deputy of ukraine was on our air, we continue after a short pause. they represent discounts. you can buy plantain in pharmacies save pain can become an obstacle walking stairs not with my knees from knee pain try dolgit cream dolgit cream relieves pain reduces swelling and improves joint mobility with dolgit cream you can also walk dolgit - the only yellow cream for joint pain there are discounts represent the only discounts on entroroger.