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but in the kremlin in any in this case, they added a note of water and do not say anything about it. as for the assassination attempt on ilya ponomarov, it was completely predicted, among the people whom the kremlin would like to destroy, and among russian emigrants, oppositionists, ilya ponomarov occupies an honorable place, and he is not the only one, there are several others, and there is operational information, which is provided by the services that provide the project actively looking for ways. how to destroy an effective part of russian oppositionists abroad, in relation to a certain number of people, is known, it is not a secret, especially since drones have already flown to the house of ilya ponomarov in kyiv region, it is difficult for me to say anything about the technical side, maybe kyiv region is more difficult cover with air defense means. kyiv itself - yes, and to prevent attacks on the kyiv region, the means may not be enough, and the danger is higher there, but ponomarov's address was not secret, drones have already flown there, man. or

border-2, as they are called there, so this is not news, there is something else: he came, as far as i understand, to kyiv, spent the night at home, they could have informed some agency that he was in the house, i know that he was in america, and a drone is sent when they want to kill a specific person, and not destroy a building. so, they receive some operative information from some agency, possibly in kyiv. ilya ponomarov is writing to me just now, so i think that, most likely, such attempts will continue in the future. where it is possible at a distance, with the help of drones, and somewhere there will be assassination attempts, some people will be sent, what is important here, it would seem, why would you kill him, what is his danger or the same ones, this is a completely wrong assessment, they do not evaluate from the point of view specific dangers arising from a political leader, they need to demonstrate to everyone that this is not what you will do, support ukraine, promote russian connections, oppose putin as his enemies, spread...

information about what moscow is doing in ukraine and not only, it is necessary to demonstrate this, this is the main goal, not a specific danger from an individual person, as well as from navalny, who... there was no danger, especially when he was in prison, but he had to be killed , there it was connected with the exchange, there you still need to demonstrate to everyone what will happen to you if you join any activity at any level against the moscow regime, well , ukraine is the enemy, they simply kill ukraine, but the russian opposition is the same enemies and the same targets, from this it is necessary it is very important to draw conclusions, that is why the defense of ukraine, as i often say among my colleagues. this is the redoubt before your death. it is necessary to defend ukraine, in addition to your ideological positions against the war against putin, also because you will be next. this is very important to understand. therefore, for the russian opposition, for all those who are against putin,

the possibility of protecting the country is an opportunity to postpone one's own death. failure to understand this leads to very sad attempts to save some of the russian opposition in a game imposed by the kremlin, which... this is very misleading, a very criminal reference, and people who perceive it will be recruited sooner or later, this is very important to understand. the parameters of the list, mark and who specifically do you think wanted to demonstrate something with this attempt, yes, because strange murders are happening in ukraine, the strange murder of iryna farion, so no one is responsible... the suspect is responsible, but the question of motives is the key story , and when these or other assassinations, political attempts happen, someone has to take this responsibility, or the second option, maybe indeed, if this is the work of the kremlin, then

they can simply prepare some kind of broader scenario, that is, cascading deaths and, accordingly , then try to reformat the same, i don't know, public discourse, but... or simply adjust it in this way, they always they were engaged in this, correcting the consequences of the physical removal of some public elements that interfere and create problems for the discourse, yes, this is part of this program, this work, itso and the rest. many do not understand the connection between these things, for example, the discourse that is opposed in ukraine of the negotiation process as such, since they have their own considerations. this is a right-wing discourse mostly, but not only. it consists in the fact that one cannot stop at the binding conditions of the agreements, at the ultimatums that moscow puts forward. it is now necessary to create the most comfortable situation so that in ukraine this is not a defining thesis in public opinion. that is, if you, for example, put a lot of pressure on the radicals, let's tentatively call them that, from the side

of moscow, then this public opinion will be able to be swayed in the right direction. moscow needs them negotiations, a cease-fire, a truce, etc. are needed, because there are conditions, such as external ones. and the internal ones, we don't fully understand the internal ones, maybe moscow's reserves for the continuation of the war are running out, and it is increasingly difficult to fight further, for many reasons and the number of people who want to go to war has decreased, industry, defense is unknown, how it works, all this is a secret , but what nabibulina, the head of the central bank, says already gives a reason to say that there is a lack of money for the war, there are also external factors, they consist in the fact that moscow cannot be under the control of sanctions and increasing pressure. in addition, moscow, obeying these factors, seeks quick negotiations. and who is against negotiations in ukraine? it is important. in ukraine, it's the right. these are nationally oriented forces. that is , the majority. some effect is needed. so that the influence of these forces, their radical position had less influence on public opinion. i also believe

that negotiations now on the terms put forward by moscow are absolutely unacceptable for ukraine. because they will not end the war. in the best case, they will postpone it, in the worst - that's all in my opinion, because if to agree to moscow's conditions, we can talk about this in more detail, it means not just a concession, but programming and seducing the aggressor to take new actions to occupy the territories and end the sovereignty of ukraine. a signal will be sent to moscow that this is possible, that it works, and from this point of view, it is necessary, of course, that someone like farion, although i do not think that she was too influential, probably had detractors inside ukraine as well, she is with the army. .

for several weeks, they do not issue the motivational part of the sentence to my lawyer, very interesting will read it, there are three episodes, i think, and three interviews where i said that there was a genocide in buchi. the russian military killed ukrainians, and i was convicted for that. yes, i am on this list, but i am protected by the french police, and my safety is ensured in this way. i don't know if a drone can fly to france, i don't know, but from a security point of view, yes, i am on this list, but there are many people on it, i am not the only one. it would be too presumptuous to think that they chose me as their only target. again, i repeat, they are do not evaluate the efficiency by the degree of significance, how much influence a person has. to the russian audience or not, although i have a large channel, i have been known in russia for many

years. no, this is still a necessary demonstration. even the attack on ponomaryov's house is also a demonstration for the rest. get scared, kneel down and do not interfere, let us do what we want, and disappear from the political field altogether. yes, this blacklist contains people in ukraine. in ukraine, this is more difficult to do, it is possible only remotely, at the level of drones, although contract killings are also possible. here is my own specifics, this is a question for the ukrainian special services, how they work with it, they probably have secrets about it. if this is really the case, then it means that there is a revival, that is, the activation of such things indicates some other parallel processes, and you very correctly said that the key story is the kremlin's interest in getting what it wants. yes, in particular, in a diplomatic way. but, if we talk about the parameters, the first parameter, yes... the kremlin immediately announced the story that it does not want and does not will communicate with our government, which he

considers illegitimate, whose cow mooed, so to speak, and it is clearly not the kremlin's, but this is one moment, another moment, the situation in the states, we understand, it will be hot in the states and the kremlin hoped that that trump will take power from biden even after november, accordingly , the kremlin's one-way scenario can work , that is, with ultimate imposition. the country of what they say, so to speak, they will want in the kremlin and agree on this matter, maybe with the trump administration, well, i really grossly simplifying, but the situation is getting complicated for the kremlin, and so to speak, the autumn scenario can be postponed in a certain so-called long drawer, and that is why they are counting on what, for the spring, that is, the energy scenario, shaheds, missiles and a set of measures, and after that, how will it be, as they say... the immensity of the suffering of the ukrainian people, this is how my american friends formulate it, but then the kremlin would like

, so to speak, to impose, i don't know, there istanbul-3 chibi-5 or something else there is another playground. how do you see it? i believe that in the fall of direct negotiations or any direct action that will contribute to that, we will not see, by direct action, i mean action from the united states. the first and most important factor is the certainty of who will rule the country, will it be the same democrats, their line or trump? it is quite obvious that this is possible, even diametrically opposed positions, because the uncertainty creates the uncertainty of the settlement plan, what the parties will agree to, i mean the democrats or trump. kamala harris, if she becomes a candidate and wins the election, of course will continue biden's line, this is a moderate line, pushing ukraine to negotiate, but at the same time... with a firm position of supporting ukraine, providing it with military and financial assistance, etc., without making it

a condition, help in exchange for participation in negotiations, in the trumps it's me i mean what he said himself, i'm going to talk about mike pompeo's plan separately now, but still what he says and what we hear from him or senator vance and some others, up to his son, rather you can interpret so that he is ready to negotiate with putin himself, no formats are needed, other than... tsarist, not in jeddah, saudi formats, nor the chinese, and why, he says: i will meet with putin and agree, that is, any shuttle missions of orban and others - this is all the quality of actions that serve trump's position, which are trying to involve him in some kind of peace process, some format, istanbul, for example, he doesn't need it, he says: i will personally agree with putin, and why can't they agree? we heard the parameters of the plan closest to trump, for which he does not give up. assistance to ukraine, but makes it dependent on ukraine's willingness to participate in peace

negotiations, that is, we will help militarily, but ukraine must agree to peace negotiations, whether it is a parallel or a substitute process, but it is quite certain. i want to say that it cannot happen before january 20, because trump will be inaugurated if he wins the election only on january 20 , 2025, and then closer to the spring, he will hold meetings. with putin and something will be decided, whether they can agree or not, in principle, everyone the rest of the arguments that the ukrainian government is not recognized because after may 20 president zelenskyi is not legitimate, it's all moscow... because of ipso, to lower the dumping power in ukraine, but no more, realizing that in fact this is not an argument, they will already talk to the authorities in kyiv, of course, they will conduct negotiations, if they do start. as for all these formats, the swiss one about the peace formula, and the previous one in istanbul, and the initiative of saudi arabia, which

took place on august 5, 2023, and the next one is planned and the chinese initiative for a peace conference with the mandatory participation of russia. it seems to me that this is just a smoke screen, really, it is still a game that both sides play, and the usa plays, and kyiv plays, somewhere there it says, well, we are ready for negotiations, understanding that in this format, for which moscow puts forward preconditions, and putin put forward his three important preconditions before the summit in switzerland, which he believes should be implemented regardless of the start of negotiations, the lifting of sanctions, the non-aligned status of ukraine and the release of unoccupied territory of four. regions, donetsk, luhansk, zaporizhzhia and kherson regions. these are unacceptable preconditions. theoretically, moscow can somehow not put forward these conditions, enter the negotiation process without these preliminary conditions. what does moscow demand? it needs a cease-fire, it needs preambles to a truce, because it's different, it's not just a cease-fire. a truce always has guarantors. the parties can stop the fire, but

the guarantors must promote a truce, at least temporarily. then negotiate directly about... the details of some arrangements, agreements, etc. currently, i do not see any conditions for solving this problem. kyiv and moscow simply cannot meet somewhere without mediators, and such a mediator is not ready. there is no one in the us, and erdogan has already lost his position as a mediator whom kyiv trusts. first of all, the usa and the west do not see erdogan as such an effective mediator, since he would get too close to moscow, we see that. therefore, it is unlikely that there will be an erdoğan playground. effective, in relation to china, it is more tempting, because china has an important trump card, interacts with moscow, the ability to influence and draw her into negotiations, force her to participate. this is a format that china itself will approve, but it faces the problem that the us is not going to give china such trump cards. they do not want china to act in this

conflict on the territory of europe as a peacemaker, mediator, guarantor, or someone else there, strengthening its international authority. like, now china decides when to start and stop wars, the us will never agree to that, never. trump is generally anti-chinese, and even the current biden administration continues to do so for obama to call china not a superpower, but a regional power in southwest asia, and nothing more, does not recognize his claim to some kind of binary world, bipolar, in which there is washington and beijing, so the us will not agree to this, in my opinion. there is a high probability that negotiations will start right from the meeting, if trump wins, trump with putin, if trump does not win, then it is very likely that some quadrilateral will be formed: the usa, china, russia, ukraine. such a quadrangle could arise if kamala harris comes to power and trump loses election. then yes, this configuration has better

chances, but it cannot happen before spring . well, in any case, mark, we understand that putin is not ... arma has voiced the conditions that are unacceptable by definition, and i will not treat putin, well, he is not a clinical idiot, and he is quite experienced in that, that is, he could not voice certain parameters, in particular, when we are talking about the annexation of not yet captured ukrainian territories, and taking into account aviation, the f-16 component, we understand that putin’s plan, even for his generals, is unrealistic, but he went for it, and here we can assume that it is possible... one or another environment, i do not know what mandate abramovich had for istanbul, yes, but he represented someone, and accordingly, putin wants to cut off in this way some alternative ideas to his position, accordingly pompeo's plan, we understand it well, but there is also no stamp on this plan

with the name of president donald trump, because it is not a fact that he will become president, but always in any case... one might say, well, these are pompeo's fantasies, he's a cool dude, i'm his respect, we drank 4 liters of whiskey, but this is not my idea, and accordingly, we may also have unpleasant surprises here, yes, because trump, the guy is also experienced, but his experience, well, it is not a fact that he will benefit us . as for pompeo, we promised to talk about it, yes, it is quite an effective plan, there is one caveat that can be very painful for the ukrainian. public opinion that ukraine may lose part of the territory, i mean the plan that i printed from the wall street journal, for the rest, it is an ideal plan from the point of view of ukraine's sovereignty, it is membership in nato and the rest of the things that will... repeat, like boris johnson's in his plan, which we also saw in the daily mail the day before. yes, to cede some part of the territory, but what exactly, four oblasts

plus crimea, or only part of these four oblasts? it's a question of the negotiating position that pompeo is hinting at will be trump's negotiating position, namely on these parts. the trouble is that precisely the first part of the plan, the absolute sovereignty of ukraine, is unacceptable to moscow. these are the plans of both johnson and pompeo not... acceptable to moscow, they may be acceptable to trump, but moscow will never agree to a change in non-aligned status, so probably in these three preconditions that putin mentioned before the summit in switzerland, provoking the summit in switzerland to some sharp reaction, there are conditions for the withdrawal of units of the armed forces from the unoccupied parts of the territories of the four regions, but perhaps he can concede this, here they can move the administrative border, perhaps the condition of lifting sanctions is important for moscow. because the sanctions are painful, painful, but still this sanctions imposed by third countries. ukrainian sanctions are not the most principled for moscow, but the american, european, australian,

canadian, japanese, and other countries, it is necessary for them to make this request, why should kyiv, if it declares an agreement based on previous conditions, be concerned with the cancellation of these sanctions , these are sanctions of third countries, but regarding the non-aligned status, i.e., preventing ukraine from joining nato, moscow will not back down. never, but on the ground, on the ground, as they gather for themselves, so it would be say, go for the return of the territory, so we also understand that this is a symbolic story, well , because putin, with him, they voiced it for a reason and, so to speak, made changes to the russian constitution, even with non-aligned status or nato membership , well, we understand moscow's position, yes, this is the whole fable about the indivisibility of security and so on on the continent, but the story is about that. which must be returned, no matter how they could sell them, well , or they could not, and they will simply stand on that. indeed, the russian constitution

the federation, which included these new subjects in its composition, provides, including the laws that will follow from it, that it is impossible to change the territorial integrity of russia, there is a criminal article, even for calling, i defended umerov in the crimea under this article, in general, in no way can we talk about rejection. the territory of the russian federation, if they included them in their constitution, seized and included them, yes, yes, they already occupied and included them, on the other hand, the russian constitution is a piece of paper in the toilet, no one will pay attention to the constitution, except constitution, putin's plans are even more ambitious, he wants all of ukraine, not just four oblasts, and here he is leaving a maneuver for himself, i assume that he can move somewhere, say that we are leaving it to ourselves. occupied territories are a negotiating position, but we are ready to bargain for the unoccupied part, what will they offer us? and what does he offer, i wonder, and what does he offer

in return for all this, and in fact it is only offered that they will not attack kyiv, try to attack kyiv, especially after ukraine receives these planes, as bloomberg claims, yesterday, maybe 20 planes of the first batch, no one knows how many, not to mention the rest, you first capture that kyiv, of course, if... they stood near kyiv, there were other negotiations, but there is no such thing. how to determine this military balance, which gives preference to one side or another, is it such that when the war continues, ukraine will definitely lose it, or on the contrary, ukraine will resist? moscow will definitely lack the strength to hold the occupied territories, whether it is able to accumulate resources to reach the regional centers, kharkiv, odesa and others, no one knows the answer, there is military balance, and in terms of military balance the conditions must be mutual. acceptable, not those imposed by one side, which moscow is trying to do, and also uses other methods to push its position, because they cannot achieve this by military means, if

they could achieve this, they would have already achieved it and would be standing in in kyiv, but this cannot be achieved, so there is a big game going on here: who will increase the number of allies of their position, who will exhaust their possibilities in switzerland, etc., in particular the information game, all these ipso that try out they are also aimed at undermining the unity, monolithicity, and self-confidence not only of ukraine, but also of the west. voices are already being heard: here is a favorable position now, no need to negotiate, the finnish president declares this, others also, because, of course, the war is draining the resources of europe, in particular, especially since everyone is in an exhausting wait for the results of the elections in america, europe is afraid the arrival of trump, the main powers, france, germany and others, are afraid of this, because they have a negative. interaction experience with trump during his presidency from 2016 to 2020. in this situation, there is no other prescription other than to do what

you are doing, to keep fighting. now ukraine will back down and agree to some of putin's conditions, then it will be very difficult to play back, he will grab it and say: you yourself agreed, are you ready to sacrifice something? accordingly, this is a trap, and the kremlin wants to drive ukraine into this trap. the territorial question is not as important for the kremlin as the question of ukraine's sovereignty, which implies the possibility. blocking status in nato and other unions such as the european and others. the main question is what will ukraine be like, how will the 80% of the territory controlled by official kyiv emerge from this war, or will they emerge with a neutral status that can be undermined by another new war, because you are not in nato, no one covers you. the network of agreements on guarantees that kyiv is currently signing for the post-war period may not work, but membership in nato will. we are

like that. already seen, the baltic countries are an example of this status working, and this is the most principled issue, and it is not decided thank you very much, mark, for this extremely important conversation on espresso tv. take care, god help you, i want to remind our tv viewers that mark feigin, a figure of the russian opposition, not emigration, a former member of the state duma, who received, according to the decision of the pseudo-first instance court, 13 years of imprisonment was working for them. will for anti-kremlin agitation. thanks mark. thank you. well, the time of our program is over, stay with the espresso tv channel. my colleagues will inform you about all the most important events of this days take care of yourself and your loved ones. see you on air. discounts until independence day

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