tehran may not respond to the murder of hania, but it cannot but respond positively for itself, the winner, at least some kind of micro-war, and if it responds and loses, well, then there is no need to start, and it is also impossible not to start, well, why not to take revenge for the murder of haniya, the leader of hamas, on the territory of tehran, that is, such a rather difficult situation, you can threaten. but i am not convinced to fight, what do you say, mr. bohdan? well, you don't need to convince me, i also believe that in principle there will be something similar, more likely than anything we have already observed, once dozens of missiles were launched on the territory of iran, yes, this april attack is famous , yes, in april, yes, it was repelled, maybe this time there will be more modern weapons in the context of missiles, because iran also has them, maybe iran will be somewhat... creative in the context

of targeting, let's say that, but i'm not sure that iran is defining itself as a strategic goal right now, to have an open direct confrontation with israel, just as in principle, i think, for israel as well, direct war with iran is not quite right now on time, although for benaymina netanyahu, this issue, so to speak, of military actions, it is also important in the context. its internal political situation and future in israeli politics. proxy, the confrontation will continue, as it has been for decades, due to various organizations or even countries participating in this confrontation, and as certain practice and experience have already shown, this plus or minus suits both one side and the other , that is, not to open a confrontation and a great war, but a proxy. operations that target

targets, kill there, mr. bohdan, now they show us exactly on tv, on tv, they show, i understand that these are the uranium eyes of centrifuges, of which there are many, which make it possible, enable the creation of nuclear potential by iran, and what to do in this situation, the world has to wait. by the time they make that nuke they're going to be a north korea that nobody wants to touch because they have nuclear weapons and and and and and have to, israel can't wait for that, it has to do something about it, the americans too, i don't conviction, that is, we see that on the one hand there are carriers already in iran, there are already three more steps or five steps to the creation of nuclear potential, it is dangerous for the world and for those close to us. east for the united states, but

first of all for israel, what should israel do, what should the civilized world, the civilized world, on the occasion of all the circumstances that i have just listed, please, madam, again, the nuclear program of iran, it well, not a year, not two or five, this is a long-term process against the background of which iran is trying to bargain for itself in the negotiations with western countries certain relaxations regarding the sanctioned flight. yes especially there in the context of energy, there were even agreements, they were quite positive, they had to be approved between there, again , by western countries, the usa, well, but it was mostly at the level of european countries, that is, there was an interest in making these agreements work and iran, but as always, something is always missing in order to finalize these agreements, so that iran will give up its nuclear. program,

instead the us, western countries lifted sanctions, at least partially, which would allow it is much faster, better and more voluminous for iran to trade its energy resources. so far, i do not see such prerequisites for iran's nuclear program to be slowed down as much as possible in view of the escalation in the middle east, but on the other hand, for such implementation, it is also not only a question of... it is a question for nuclear countries that have nuclear potential, including the russian federation, and china, and the united states of america, great britain, and france, which will absolutely, in my opinion, do the maximum, well, maybe with the exception of russia, let's say so, considering now the different context and geopolitical component, so that another, let's say, subject, player, i...

potential does not appear, especially in the context of the middle east, where the situation is always very acute, and this will further destabilize global nuclear security, so everything is not so easy and simple here again. as it may seem that israel is doing a lot in the context of its special operations, eliminating, for example, those or others involved in israel's nuclear programs, whether they are even scientists or scientists military, these are spot-on operations in some places, operations of a different nature in some places, which would hinder or slow down those processes aimed at achieving and enriching uranium in order... for iran to have nuclear weapons against ukraine, so zelensky is speaking, we we can see that the vector of his thoughts is changing a little, negotiations are possible, a peace plan is possible, maybe by the fall,

or rather, including the fall there, before the elections of the president of the united states, to agree on something, what do you think, mr. bohdano, ukraine can count on? i i will say right away that i don't believe in what the majority of ukrainians probably believe, or maybe i'm wrong, i mean the borders of 1991, the withdrawal of all russian troops, well, in short, complete victory, or complete defense of one's ukraine's independence, and the further path to europe, to nato, i can hardly imagine, er... that, that it is possible, the russians will resist, will put pressure on the west, the west will say that, well, let's somehow end the war, and i also understand the west in that sense, because when there is such silence at the front, well it is not quiet, thousands of people die, but

there is no progress, and when there is no progress, it is obvious that some american or swedish or polish diplomat or anyone will say: well, listen, it still stands, well, maybe we with... this and somehow we will not die anymore, i think that these are strong enough arguments, if the ukrainians won, or the russians even won, then there would be some activity of the west, let's help ukraine more, let's restrain russia, well and in short, something on the front is decided when the front stands, then sooner or later, talks about negotiations will begin, what do you think ukraine can count on, whether there is enough intelligence among diplomats and politicians in ukraine to somehow bring our ukrainian point of view through all these peace negotiations. please, mr. bohdan. mr. mykola, you are one of the realists, you and i

talked about these topics in the last broadcast, in the context of realism in international relations, there are circumstances that you have to take into account whether you like it or not, indeed, but the activity of combatants actions at the moment, in my subjective, again, opinion, it does not yet give grounds for understanding that the war can end quickly, this is the first, second, far from everything depends on the swedish diplomats there, the german diplomats, that is, the european leaders, as it was, for example, after 2014, when two countries played a key role in the minsk process, yes, germany and france, now the configuration has changed, as has communication. there are more countries involved, more players, and sometimes, on the one hand, it seems that there are more countries involved in the context of the russian-ukrainian war, the better, given the attention, yes, but on the other hand, again, in my subjective opinion, it is not always possible to easily, let's say, yes,

end this war , especially from our position of a just peace, when so many countries and players, and sometimes even mediators, are involved in this process, because there is singing here. geopolitical interests and the conflict that will grow between autocratic countries, between the same china, the united states, the russian federation, and in this more in the geopolitical dimension, the context of the russian-ukrainian war, it acquires new, so to speak, features and risks for different parties as well, so we must do everything in order to take the ascendant positions in certain formats of communication, with more, so to speak , expressive, on the one hand, with the expressive support of as many countries as possible, not only western ones, this is important, by the way, but on the other hand, the situation at the front, that is , yes, the ability to restrain russian

advances on the one hand, and on the other hand to counterattack somewhere , to be stronger, that too a determining component for the future configuration of certain communications, however... until the elections in the usa, i still do not have such excessive hopes that any drastic changes may occur. and if possible, i will use such a rather cautious, well, not about... the right word, i just can’t choose another one now: to convince russia, well, here we are with china, brazil, peace plans, there is a ukrainian plan, there are europeans who say, is pompeo, that is, the republican, tentatively the plan of the republican party of the united states, a bunch of different plans, but it is obvious that the only one who does not want a just peace is... the president of the russian federation, mr. putin, he doesn't want it, he wants to grab it and manage

ukraine from the outside and allow something to ukraine, forbid something to ukraine, well and shorter to be such a mentor. and who is on it, how can you click on it? well, well, well, china will say, we want peace, and brazil wants peace, and india, now mody will come to kyiv, i think that he will also move in the right direction by a couple of microns, the europeans already everyone, well there, with a few exceptions, everything is fine, well , putin sits, says, and i don’t care, your thoughts, questions, the question is, really, what strategy does the kremlin define for itself, in my opinion, they had, well, definitely not one strategy , when they launched a full-scale invasion, that is, they thought either really actively, quickly ... how they planned it, to achieve certain results for themselves, or a protracted war of attrition,

and now we see, that is, yes, what can we say, scenario b, or the second scenario, it is the key one for the russian federation, it is war to exhaustion and protracted confrontation by the western world, that is, they are russians, i think, as well as putin, are far from thinking that, for example, the resumption of communication with western countries can happen quickly, even after ending active hostilities in the context the russian-ukrainian war, that is , they are preparing further for such a confrontation, plus the chinese factor, of course, i am not one of those experts who believe that china can have super maximum influence on putin and the kremlin there, and dictate, for example, in the context of the russian war, what putin should do, these are quite subjective. assessment, but i believe that the position of such powerful countries and leaders as china, as india,

as even there asian countries, that is, in the context of the fact that the war must be ended, it can play a role in the fact that the kremlin will still also look for, perhaps, certain formats of modality and so on, but so far i do not think that for the kremlin... the strategy of ending the war and a just peace, which we want from the side of ukraine, that for them it is again the an option that is acceptable, so i think that for now, again, the struggle will take place here, mr. bohdan, look, ah, well, when you start to look at the russian economy, the russian military-industrial complex. russian mobilization capabilities, you start to look at it,

you realize that it really is a cob on clay feet, and the vast majority of experts say that this is the 24th year, the last year, when they still live a more or less normal life, in the 25th year, there won't be any money, there won't be that, there won't be that, a lot what won't happen, and we, as it were, weigh it quite lightly when we say, well, he went... to north korea to collect shells, hello, this is north korea, this, this is the poorest of the poorest countries, so what, well, if big, powerful russia is begging for shells in north korea, well, that does not mean that north korea, that russia is in order, that they have everything, they feel great, they are doing great, on the fronts it is great, in the rear it is great , plenty of food, plenty of ammunition. yes, i have the impression that they have big problems, and these are internal problems

can cause putin to waver in the sense that the russian people will begin to open their beaks, that we don't like shortages, do you think he will remember the 41st year and we will be hungry, but we will fight, that's the question, i i think that here it is necessary... to try as much as possible to at least professionally assess the actual situation that exists in the russian federation and internally, we have few, by the way, few experts and... professional people who can really qualitatively make such an analysis, more that we would like to hear, that we would like see, they really have problems, definitely, especially with the beginning of a full-scale invasion, these problems, they, so to speak, appeared, but they were preparing for a full-scale invasion, financially, economically, they were preparing for it, there were many experts who said there, that they

will run out of rockets in the first summer of 2022, unfortunately, they have not run out of these. and missiles yes, that is, they produce and can produce them, and even being assembled there from some western corporations, the campaigns get through third countries to the same russian federation, because war, it forces you to adapt, re-equip, rearm, your adversary as well and the enemy as well, but will there really be and is there still a desire to end active hostilities, i think that putin may have it from... the review really to the problems that you outlined in part, this is also mobilization, let it be hidden there, it does not end, so they are looking for financial incentives quite seriously for such an action, but still, this is the position, in my opinion, of such powerful countries with which they cooperate, especially energetically, there economically, this position can be key,

this is the first thing, can something mature in the russian federation, there were such hopes, again at the beginning. full of a large-scale invasion, which they say, the towers of the kremlin there will begin to find out among themselves, someone still wants to restore it through cooperation, or they have fortunes there, yes, multi-millionaires, billionaires, but it did not work, again, the regime, it intensified even more, especially now after the exchange, when almost all the key opposition leaders there are now in... the western territories, so to speak, so i discovered through which there may be some kind of protest inside russia, i don’t observe it, but there is always a group of experts who expect black swans there, and in principle anything can happen, here we saw that there were certain prerequisites, but it was not possible

due to the same prigozhin's adventures themselves, so to speak, and expectations are excessive, so it is worth preparing and be more pragmatic about the fact that, unfortunately, the kremlin has adapted to the russian war. oh, i would argue with you, but we don't have that much time, i would also ask you about that these sanctions, which many say are not very bright, are sluggish, but the amount of money in russia is not increasing. the 22nd year was the last year when they really made a lot of money because of gas, oil there, well, in short, because of what they have, and once upon a time it was fur and stump and and and wax, i remember, i at school i studied the history of russia, so there was trade there, furs, stumps and

wax, now, mr. mykola, it was, it was also during the time of... the cold war there was also a war of attrition and opposition to exhaustion, how did it actually end and how long did it last, how much is the gdp of the soviet union plus a socialist country and how much is the gdp of russia without socialist countries, so there is something to argue with, and i have something to work on, there is more i don't see what to do, you know, i didn't think that it was like that at the age of 22. they would die immediately, but i was convinced that there would come a time when they would get worse, worse, worse, worse, and there would be no money to go to, and no resources to go to, and no, and no, and no, and no, and sooner or later it may be revealed, i am convinced that it will happen, you see, you were the witnesses, i am a candidate for the audience

of the conversation between an optimist, i.e. me, and a pessimist, i.e. bohdan ferens, an expert internationalist candidate ... and why, maybe a realist, yes, no, mr. political science, no, i do not like realists, because every pessimist says that he is a realist, and every optimist says that he is a realist, even i sometimes say that i am a realist , although i'm an optimist, that is, i honestly can, i'm the only one who honestly admits, yes, i don't, i don't realist, yes, of course, okay, we thank mr. bohdan ferens, we thank the experts of the international candidate of political sciences, thank you very much. our agenda should include ilya ponomaryev, whom i always, after he received a ukrainian passport from russia, apologize to, call ilko panamaryov. but probably he may not appear before our bright eyes, i will ask my colleagues now, he did not appear, they are recruiting, they have been

recruiting him for about five minutes, and just so you understand, 5 minutes on the air is a very long time , what i would like to talk to him about talk and i will talk, if he appears, it is definitely about this exchange, and the exchange of russians for russians, for the most part, well, there. the americans and the germans are somewhat accommodating, but in principle this exchange is very interesting and we learned a lot of interesting moments, for example, what struck me was that those russian oppositionists who were in the opposition sat in shoe factories, were subjected to torture, well, as usual in the russian federation, when they were released, they said beautiful words about the fact that it's not us, it's... putin, it's not russia , it's all, it's all putin, russia is wonderful, beautiful, the russian people are beautiful and wonderful, and secondly, that they said that the sanctions against

russia should be lifted immediately, because these sanctions are not against putin, but against russia, that's the only thing i thought about, and how can i explain this absurdity is the fact that they were sitting in russian butcher shops, and there is no connection there, and they simply do not know that even in... even the so-called good russians do not talk about it anymore, they are somehow careful , good russians, they understand that it looks absurd when they are re-elected every time putin, one, two, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and we are not to blame, we are not to blame, we are good, and that's all putin, why did we decide to invite lyumarov, because he is the only one, in my opinion, despite , that i... i don't always agree with him in the sense that he is undoubtedly such a more left-wing politician, and i'm rather more right-wing, but he is the only realist,

as we just talked about with mr. bohdan, he is creating some kind of armed forces, about they can be said in different ways, that they are effective, not effective, there are many of them, there are few of them, they are useful they bring to ukraine, they don't bring to ukraine, but all this is secondary, this is just a single person, or he is his, if it were, henchman. who are close to him, who understand that something must be done, and not with tongues, what 90%, 95-99% of russians do, even in europe, they quarrel among themselves, and think about the big topic, whether it is worth informing the armed the forces of ukraine are not worth it, we can't, we have a big russian heart, we can't give money to a country that kills... our boys, these beautiful people say, and here they are arguing among themselves, but how can we do that, and and and waiting

when someone instead of them, some natural or supernatural or unnatural forces will somehow change the situation, and then we will calmly get on planes and fly to moscow, this can be done by the ukrainians who will win there, this... can be done by some foreign, well, european sanctions , this can be done by god, if he removes putin or the devil, he will just get sick and die, but we, they say, yes, they don’t say so much, they don’t shout, they say, but they don’t shout, we don’t, we ca n’t , and what should we do, we will be imprisoned immediately to prison or they will kill us, they cry and say how bad it is for us, we can't, we won't succeed, who should do your work for you,

i would ask, but you see, i don't know if i can ask, and the second point that i would discuss, and it is really quite interesting, but it is such a point that it would be interesting to discuss with, perhaps, political psychologists, we can... there are such very exotic people in ukraine, there are even good ones who understand and in politics and psychology, it is about the russian population, it is difficult for me to call these people a people or citizens, but the population maybe they inhabit large areas of russia, and this population, i'm starting to get nervous. to be honest , because given the current situation , i don't see an option so that they don't start taking revenge, somehow...

organize, what offends us, scumbags, europeans, scumbags, americans, pindos, these are all words, they are you they say, and and and and this is a curse, well, the only salvation, i don’t agree here, by the way, you can already see that i ’m debating with myself here, i don’t agree with many experts, they say that russia will attack, how can we give them a break, then she immediately attacked, well there after... a year, two, three, five will attack, here i just think that this will not happen, because i do not think that the west, that the civilized world will allow russia to develop the way it developed. what is the problem, in the 90s , russia began to be friends with the west, began to accumulate opportunities, money, intelligence, technologies, which it borrows, which it gave

to... and therefore the country went a little higher, it began some development, and having achieved some certain moment of development, said, well, she remembered her constant historical historical rules, you have to attack as soon as you get a little richer, you have to immediately spend this money on a war with some neighbors, win them over and then proudly walk around and drink champagne, and they did that, now i’m not convinced that they will all sanctions are lifted, i am not convinced, i am convinced that ten years after the end of the war, russia will be limping, not a year, not two, not five, this is the mess that russia got into on february 24, this trouble will haunt russia, even if the sanctions are lifted for years to come 20-30, well, something may change later, but

attention and... the watchful eye and narrowed watchful eye of the west will now look at the kremlin in a completely different way than it did before february 24, when everyone believed that somehow they could be dealt with will come to an agreement, it turned out that it is impossible to come to an agreement with them, and therefore i think that they will not leave again, will not make the same mistake again, maybe they will in 50-70 years, you and i know, for sure, that these moments are... uh, as the generation that remembers the past war dies, there is an idiot who starts the future war, and so it happened now. putin does not know what war is, he may know the remnants of this war, he was born in the 50s, that is, 5 years after the end of the second world war, so it looks very easy for him, but he attacked and attacked, oh well

i have the impression that despite the possible victories of ukraine, we are knocking on wood, they harbor malice and hatred, which they always harbor, these russian people, just the russian population is 140, 140, how many 143 million are there, well, others they say 139, well, shorter than under 140 million people, of which there are about 139. yeah, yes, maybe by 100 30 million, well, there are 10 00 conscious people, somewhere maybe, not even conscious today, but people like this, who can be reoriented, here we talked yesterday with my north american friends, and yes, and and so we decided that this is volodymyr.

murzu, perhaps, can be convinced that he should sit and be silent about the lifting of sanctions, about the fact that russian is good, and this is putin, he is his, he is subject to, well, how to say, reincarnation, psychopolitical, but 99.99, no, and nothing you can't do it with them, karamurza, by the way, here he is. and i am absolutely convinced that they are not able, these guys will somehow get around in the west, although karamurza has a british passport and mostly lives in america, well, he can live in america, they say he has a green card, but it doesn’t matter, he is surrounded by western mass media, he is surrounded by normal people, he is all right, but he, you see, comes out of prison and says no.