tv [untitled] August 4, 2024 7:30pm-8:01pm EEST
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i have the second part of today's program, it is constantly relevant to me, as soon as i spoke about chersonese, now we will have, the head of the south caucasian branch of the center for the study of the army, conversion and disarmament from tbilisi, our old acquaintance volodymyr kopchik, so i would like to say that we will talk about the civil war, i was in 1991, i witnessed the beginning of the civil war just in... you see, somehow it all comes back, mr. volodymyr, good health, thank you for finding time for us, my congratulations dear viewers, colleague mykola, as they say, always, look, this is how i started with the civil war, and i am looking now, here i have, as always, cheat sheets, the law of pro-agents, identical to the russian law, comes into force on the first of august. 3 months before
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the elections, one-third are for the ruling party of georgia, about half are for the opposition, and the party, and it seems that ivanashvili can go to some position, to be elected there as president, i don't know, prime minister, in short, somehow not only shine for behind the scenes, and to be, so to speak , an official person, in short, everything shows that pro and contra build up strength and pro'. is it really possible to talk about the smell of a civil war in georgia, which may start during the autumn parliamentary elections in our friendly georgia? i would, well, to answer the main question unequivocally, i would not speculate on the concepts of civil war, my answer is not possible at the moment, because... scenario,
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scenario, for example, the politico-technological government, er, is speculating on the question, they have the main one now narrative, they, on their part, are trying to hold parliamentary elections at the end of october wrapped in the format of a referendum, but which fluctuates around the question of peace with us, or if not us, then there will definitely be war, so this thesis should not be strengthened, and civil resistance in georgia, it would simply be a gift for the kremlin, which and informative on this topic, speculates on this topic as much as possible. the next point that i would like to highlight is that the so -called russian law on foreign agents officially entered into force on august 1, there is still a formality, it is currently under consideration in the constitutional court, but there will not be any surprises there, because it is tame and under the control of the authorities, but now i do not expect certain sensations and sharp hands, because in georgia, even in such political...
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turbulent conditions, it is still summer in august, now there is a certain calm, people have physically dispersed and so on , the disparate opposition is trying to work quite aggressively in the regions, what are the key points regarding this law, i would highlight it, highlight its implementations, it gives quite such, let's say, flexible levers of pressure now in the pre-election period for the authorities, why briefly, according to of this law each an organization... or an agency that has funding of more than 20% from abroad must register itself as a foreign agent in a certain new state register. de facto, no secret, who works with whom, how they work , what the difference from russia is, no one has ever hidden that, they are proud of this in georgia, how it works politically and technologically, it is interesting here, there is a pool of, let's say, rich non-governmental organizations , which work. it has been there
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for tens of years, one might say, with well-known donors, foundations, they have a line, in my opinion, i see the following: donors tell them foreign, western, do not register, we will cover the fines, i.e. non-registration may be given by a certain organization, the fas team will be given, and the fine is 25 00 gel, it is somewhere around 9 thousand euros, well, this is a decent enough amount for, for example, for , well, less significant some or. in other words, certain organizations will be registered, i don't know, how massively, just to function in this, let's say, legislative field, others will oppose politically technologically, and here i have a question, how massively will the pressure on this non-governmental sector be the government, or how precisely it will trade, pressure and so on, this is the most interesting question for me, but i would end the first block of our conversation with this, we need to... go
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beyond the scope of this law on ineagents, why, it has already been worked out stage, there are currently no mechanisms for the authorities to refuse it, full stop, that is, there the conditions are put forward by brussels. the united states is cutting off some of the funding for training, transferring them to armenia, i’m not kidding, but this is absolutely not what the government is ready for, it programmed such reactions from the west. now there is a question, i have already repeated it several times in your programs, to what extent, to what extent at the end of october, after the announcement of the elections, and the victory of the authorities will be announced, how much society, relying on the opposition forces, will be able to protect... the stolen election, as it happens, now at the moment no one knows, no one listens to anyone, so we are watching, and look, i have another question for you, mr. volodymyr, and what does the government want, well, they want, they are like yanukovych, they
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want to be the government in georgia forever, that is that's it eh, do they not want to go, because they will all go to jail, no matter how much you don't want to. we already remember very well that mr. saakashvili is leaving, but he left, which is true, now he is sitting, that is, a bad example for the modern government, so it's just what they want, no, no, no, don't help me, i'm confusing myself, we forget yanukovych, but your point, that they are going to rule forever, that is their main motive, at this stage, they want to continue to rule forever, and they want to fix. maximum his rule forever, let's say so, having issued the same a turn already from the west, this in my opinion is the main principled moment, then there is a moment, well, for example, iraklii kubakhidze comes out, this is the prime minister of georgia and says, we have
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georgian dreams, to implement all plans to make heaven on earth here in georgia, it takes 12 years, he says so directly, we need another 12 years, he is honest in his approaches, and here already ba... a lot, let's say, memes appeared that in the comments, for example, joke, say, concrete gasoline , and why only 12 years old, he thinks what he is saying, why so little and such something else, so they are honest, they are really going to prolong themselves forever, but they are going to do it in a new status, let's say, leaving the euro-atlantic there, from european integration, and submit or sell this population that we have kept the peace, but there, how they say, the party of global war, there is a street event, the united states, they, for example, have already made a bet on zero in the usa that trump will win there, that's all, they already work in the logic that trump won, that's how they live in this sense, so here, here i am with you completely i agree, and, unfortunately, they will do anything
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to keep their power, because unfortunately, again, you rightly point out that there is a sad tradition in georgia, that, well, they will, no matter who is new, he will have his revenge. they don't see themselves in the opposition, the current government, they don't see themselves in some status of political struggle, they are playing with zero sum, these are just obvious things, but the fact is that now coming back to the civil confrontation, they feel confident in their logic , they think that not before come on, again, it is a paradoxical moment that they are confident of their victory and various polls give them 25%, 30%, and this is actually a lot, so you understand. they will now work to beat the turnout, because if, for example, 70-75% of voters come, they will definitely have to totally falsify, but if 50% of them come, there will be only 30 charged, how they know how to charge through crime, through potatoes, if you like , through carousels, through
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everything, it will be a job for them, well , it’s easier, you know, in any country, in any country, any government, here is ukraine, we mentioned, georgia is not original, if the opposition wins... let's say it goes 50 to 50, or 3-5% wins, any government, well, administrative the resource is doing its job and it wins, but if the turnout is such that the gap will be 15%, de facto, well , they will draw deures, but the ferments will be terrible, now we just have to wait a little, because i keep repeating that the main asset of georgia for georgian government, in my opinion, is absolutely impotent and scattered opposition, but this is exactly my next question, it is very interesting that it coincided, mr. volodymyr, look, the opposition can be sluggish, neutered, as you like, but when me, a georgian, and you, a georgian, and her
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georgian, and such people, tens, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, are being deceived, we don't care about the government, the opposition, any political... party circumstances, we go out on the street, under what other slogans, i was deceived, this is my main slogan, and you were cheated in kutaisi, you were cheated in... in batumi, and i was in georgia, and i was in the village, us was deceived, and this is no longer about politics, this is about the fact that i was deceived, and when i am deceived, i do not like it, we know it from our own memory, we have had this happen more than once, what do you say, well, i completely agree, but i will repeat that now no one knows, the main question remains open, under whose flag or under which political force, the main mass, the russian protest force will go from 100. its choice, that's where the problem is, because remember you see, we had a political-technological meme that did not
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work at the end of the 13th year, the maidan without politicians, well, it was for the outpouring of protest, and it is also now, i have already repeatedly said the strength and weakness of protest, because it is from below, and it does not rely on political forces, because it has long been unmolested, believe me, but under whose banner they will leave, we will see, now there are new forces, new leaders who are trying to accumulate this process, the old parties are trying... to accumulate this process, but they have failed in their logic of the referendum, slob zorabishvili, take a stab at me, now he is the most popular opposition politician, if someone would have said this to me two years ago, i would have called an ambulance, you know, but she outlined a unified charter, outlined a referendum, either we go to the ussr or we go to europe, but for that there had to be one common party from the opposition, ideally, well, at most two or three, now there are already six, you see, that's it, after the five percent barrier, the government can... do anything, with four and see to prevent someone, and who will go for the unmissable party,
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let's say so , to fight at the barricades, so it's easy to cheat mathematics or arithmetic here it is impossible, and that is why i am saying now, well, there are gray swans, black swans, the authorities have set up feeding troughs for them, how the protest will go, how much it will escalate, we will see, unfortunately, there is also another option, so that the authorities are relatively calm will win, and... the pro-european society will go into internal or banal physical emigration, and for a certain time, georgia, together with armenia and azerbaijan , will be in the transcaucasia format of the kremlin's imperial logic, while this putin regime will somehow hold on to the ukrainian front and sit in moscow. this period is also possible in the south caucasus in general. and georgia is no exception here, it is a locomotive for this transcaucasia. armenia is ahead, who would have told me that once? unfortunately. and this... it was such a frond, such an indicator that
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the officials of georgia went to welcome the iranian president to the inauguration, they specifically did this to show that we are, yes, we are friends with friends of russia, we, we are not friends there with some europeans, we are iran, a friend of russia, we went to iran, or is it just because they are dry'. well, they are close geographically, the last one the moment is certainly present, but now you understand, the georgian authorities, official, official tbilisi are in such a paradigm that it would be a miracle if they did not go to iran, i emphasize this, they have already decided on the russian line or the russian-chinese one, now there is a very chineseization of foreign affairs the politicians of georgia are there from the deep-sea port of anaklia to other things, what kind of fuse, safety cushion , geopolitics... china has already decided, by the way, because of orban, that is, it is an old story here, well listen, for the inauguration of pezeshkian it is
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one thing, kobakhidze was at the farewell of the flight that died or was killed recently, that is, why should we be surprised, this is absolutely now for, i emphasize , for the official, for the official a normal geopolitical paradigm, well, here they are trying to tell us that, well, from the point of view of the region, all three countries at different levels... for example, i also sent the prime minister, but there is a nuance, ilham aliyev did not go, nikol pashinyanyan was the first person and the first person from georgia, but if it were not for the current geopolitical rift, not the current war, global, where is key ukrainian the front, where formally on paper georgia joins nato and the eu, and it is clear from which side, the de facto authorities decided on the other side a long time ago, and there are protocol points, well, you could go, but not get through one speeder there. a little later, hania, the leader of the hastana, the question, the short answer,
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literally 30 seconds, and the option is that ivanishvili comes to power, a riot begins in russian, and he appeals to putin, and putin introduces troops, this is possible, this is possible, but i emphasize even in ivanishvili's logic, they are convinced that this will not happen, but it is possible, on the other hand. speakers of various calibers from moscow are trying to use political technology and strengthen the power paradigm, they declare that if there is a coup d'état and they turn to us, we will intervene in the same way as it happened in syria. that is, this is a strengthening of the thesis of the georgian authorities that if we stay, then there will be peace, if we are not there, then there will definitely be war, and they will keep this framework until the end, people, against the russians or not, well, there is no answer, no, well if the russians will come, they will lie here, if
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they come physically, realistically, there will be trouble here, they will lie here, georgia is a very irrational irrational susp really, you understand, that is, i always repeat that the law on foreign agents was violated, and 10 cases could have been violated there there were, which in my opinion were hotter and more revealing from the point of view of the turnaround, no one paid attention to anything, everything was fine there, the bordering was going on and so on, but here and there there was a smell of visa-free cancellation, when everyone understood that the law was russian, that hooligans they leave the sight, well, 200,000 roamed the street, if they somehow accumulate. and direct, then there will be a result. thank you very much, volodymyr kopchak, the head of the south caucasian branch of the army research center for conversion and disarmament from tbilisi, was with us. thank you, mr. volodymyr. now we are from georgia, which is close and pleasant to us, at least pleasant from the point of view of the people, not from the point of view
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of the leaders. we will probably end up somewhere in latin america. on this occasion, ivan fechko. expert of the latin american and caribbean research program of the council of foreign policy, the ukrainian prism now appears in front of us, i say the second where the second, the second half of today's program, i was somehow everywhere there, somehow , and we will talk about venezuela , i had a very interesting adventure in venezuela once upon a time, a long time ago, well, i won't pay attention to this, it's not about me, it's about mr. maduro. mr. maduro became the winner again, exitpol showed that he is not the winner, and now there is some way out of this situation, mr. ivan, there is some possibility, because these totalitarian authoritarian guys are already sitting there decades, and nothing is happening, there is a possibility that something will happen, and that it will not
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be the second such latin american belarus, when everyone knows who you are. but the president remains the one who won last time, yes, congratulations, of course, at least the representatives of the opposition and many of the international partners hope that it will be possible to find a way and stop, firstly, this 25-year rule of the chavia regime , which was also established in his time by gochaves, and maduro is essentially his follower, and therefore apparently, such attention and hopes were placed on these elections, that there would really be an opportunity... after all, somehow to change the situation and reset this regime, indeed, you mentioned all the pre-election polls, and simply visually the rallies held by the opposition throughout the country, they clearly showed that the maduro regime, it is now at the lowest point in its history, at least in these last previous two terms that maduro was under, the maximum frustration in the society, it is
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quite understandable, given the state that venezuela is in, and despite the fact that maduro, he tried in every possible way to prevent the opposition from participating in these elections, and massive persecutions and arrests were carried out, all the same, and international observers, as we know, were not allowed in large numbers during the elections, or they were simply kicked out of their campaign already there, the results everyone was clear, and now the question of how the election results will be defended, the opposition is facing this moment, typical that the memory remains of the previous elections in venezuela, which took place six years ago, in which also it was clear to everyone that maduro did not have popular support, then we remember that there were also large-scale protests, and most of the countries of the world recognized the positional leader huaido as the elected president, but in the end nothing happened and maduro still managed to retain his power, so now the opposition is trying to test a new strategy, more consistent, one might say softer and not so radical, that's why even at
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yesterday's first such large-scale rally, the leader of the opposition maria korinya machada, she called ... for such gradual actions, and the strategy of the opposition was precisely to use the time in the first days to maximize their victory, given that the electoral commission is completely under the control of maduro, and it announced the election results even without waiting for these results, without waiting for all the recounts, the opposition tried to show people, society, foreign partners that they really won, and already having all these proven data, they are trying now... to carry out their activities, and of course people are outraged by the situation, they did not expect such successive steps and already started spontaneous protests, the footage that you and i are seeing now, yes, unfortunately... 21 people, at least according to the latest data, died in these protests , this shows that maduro, of course, has a completely different intention, and he is simply not going to come to power, and whether it will be possible
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to remove him after all, it will depend, as we said, on the actions of the opposition, and of course on international support for the reaction of other countries, as well as those that are against maduro extremely negatively, as well as those who have maintained relations with him for a long time, will they now be able to act as negotiators, like brazil, for example, and colombia, well... of course, as we understand, sometimes it is very difficult to remove these dictators from under such methods authorities, especially when the army, law enforcement forces remain under them, and therefore the reaction, this is my next question, why do the armies, law enforcement agencies love maduro so much, what happened, why, they see that, well, what exactly the majority against him, but they stand their ground, and when i have someone says, i have many acquaintances who know the situation in venezuela better than i do, they say that they are paid more, well, they are still in a poor country, well, they pay me, and i am
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in a poor country, sooner or later i will wanders, the country is not really poor, in fact, the country is full of oil, oil refineries, it could bathe in gold, but there is nothing, emigration, well, let's talk briefly, so why so? do people in uniform like maduro? well, we even saw during these attempts to suppress protests that there were really different cases and moments when representatives of law enforcement agencies or the army, or even went over to the side of the protesters, or simply acted in this way, or did not interfere with them, but these are usually isolated cases, and the problem is that it is the heads of the army, the generals, they are essentially part of that scheme, which was built by the chavez regime, it is not for nothing that the current political situation in venezuela is often called the political situation of chavez and maduro, especially maduro, a narco-dictatorship, because the main criminal drug cartels are also connected, and this is all very connected, including a string
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generals, they are of course part of this regime, and they understand that if marduro leaves power, they will lose, firstly, all these sources of income for themselves, the privileged status they currently have, and secondly, immediately will be followed by criminal liability, removal from their positions and an attempt to bring them to justice for the things they... did, especially since maduro and the oceychavis regime in general, they have built a really very militarized country over the years, you can only look at that fact , that in venezuela, a country that now has a population of roughly 30 million after this mass migration of refugees, after the previous crisis, there are more generals than in the united states of america, well, this shows what kind of system was built in general, and of course it is not easy yes, namely in order to rule the country in the manner that is accepted and for dictatorial regimes and... to suppress such stories, and when the question arises, what is maduro's fate next, then of course, the question of the army is one of the key here, and very important now for maduro, he understands it,
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to show his strength, to show that he remains in power and controls the situation, because as soon as he shows faltering, weakness, of course some of the generals can turn around and start negotiations with the opposition, especially since such attempts have already been made, it is possible to start negotiations with external others countries on the subject of how to make a transition of power, well... of course, this may mean that the maduro regime will crumble, but this is all pure theory at the moment, so far the situation is that the army really, it remains on the sidelines, on sorry for the regime, at least for the time being, mr. ivan, why are the leaders of the opposition changing so much, i already, i don't remember, you mentioned guaido, but he disappeared, now maria machado, gonsa. there was someone else, well, in short, they nominate a new leader at each term, he shouts and says, everyone went against these
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dictators, and then they disappear, where are they, what are they and why is this happening, well, the first moment is the same as what happened with ugaido, and the fact that the opposition really could not find such a common point for a long time vision and conflict situations often arose between them, which... enabled them to unite, and therefore it is very important that the current leader of the opposition, this is maria corinha mechado, who is sometimes called the iron leader of the lady of venezuela, she was able to consolidate for the first time in many years almost all the opposition forces, and by the way, she was supposed to participate in the elections in venezuela, she won the previous premiership of the opposition, maduro simply did not allow her, because he understood that he had no chance to stand against her, so the opposition and it was possible to take this man, whom we see on the screen, blund gonzalez, ex. plomata as their representative in the elections, because it was simply the only option for them or to legally register it, although the leader of the opposition, who unites society, who is very charismatic, who was at
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a big rally yesterday and you. pala it is just machado and she is the number one threat to maduro, and of course for her, as well as for all the opposition, this is a big issue, a problem, this is security, many people have been arrested this year, 100 people from the company edmund gonzález from the opposition company, they were arrested by the authorities, maria mechado herself is also currently, if not at rallies, then hiding in unknown places, because she is quite naturally afraid for her safety, so there is also such a factor here, but it is important that now the positions united and even those parties that previously supported... maduro, such as, for example, the communist party, they leave him, realizing that he is a super unpopular politician in ukraine, and his future prospects, his regime, are very doubtful. ah, they showed us yesterday, me it seems to be wagner's patch, it's some kind of factor, is it so simple that he got into it by accident, or half, there, there are these wagners, there are hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of them, or there are 5, 7, 20 of them, and that's it, and it's definitely not accidentally. this is a consequence
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of the very strong cooperation that exists between the putin regime and the maduro regime, and cooperation, it has intensified very actively in recent months, for russia the loss of maduro, the loss of venezuela, it would be a great geopolitical defeat, because now this regime is one of most their clear of such allies in the region, and of course they will support venezuela as much as possible in all formats, including politically, they were one of the first to recognize maduro as the winner of the election without expecting any results, as we can see. what formats of cooperation there will be, the exact number of wagnerites is still unknown, obviously not all of them will show themselves openly, but this is not the first time, the previous protests of the 19th year were also suppressed by maduro with their help, obviously now they have arrived in order to help instruct first venezuelan forces and law enforcement agencies, and in certain cases it is possible to show the brutality that will be necessary in order to suppress these uprisings, these protests, and this is just another continuation of the cooperation between
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the two regimes. at the same time, at the diplomatic level, it was announced that maduro's visit to russia is being prepared, this is also a form of diplomatic support, along with other countries of the authoritarian bloc, this is essentially the only foreign policy hope for maduro to stay in power, precisely the reliance on such leaders as panevan , the last, the last the question, well, how will it go, maybe a group of questions, but the last one is literal, and abroad will help them, as in the anecdote. the inscription in the book asks what the west can do, we talked about what is happening inside, we started talking about the fact that russia is in the east, maduro will go to russia, and what brazil, mexico, the united states, canada can do, well, obviously, that cuba will be for maduro, and all the rest already now if not very much for maduro, that what pressure is possible or possible, and as for the united states, of course their position is very
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important, given that... this region, well, which is considered the sphere of influence of the united states, but now their position is very reserved on two points: first, they remember the bad experience of 1919, when they recognized guaido and they took him in there and helped him, and it didn't lead to anything. secondly, elections will also be held in the usa itself, and now, for example, to carry out additional sanctions, to return those that biden removed last year as part of the agreements with maduro, this will mean an increase in the prices of oil and gasoline, the situation that will be immediately certain to be used by opponents of the administration. the republican party, which is already very actively criticizing biden for what is happening in venezuela, so the position of the west so far is more that they demand maduro to show results, so far the sanctions do not lead to a border or some way for dialogue to remain, so it is very important the position of latin american countries, especially the neighbors of venezuela, that is brazil, first of all, it is colombia, mexico, socialist leaders are present there, who had a positive attitude towards maduro before, and that is why there is such an opinion in the opposition,
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in particular, what can... perhaps it is through their mediation that it will be possible to enter into a dialogue with maduro, because for these leaders themselves, what maduro is doing, of course, also affects their image as left-wing regimes, but something like this is happening , that's why this option remains, but the right-wing regimes, like the argentine one, they usually criticize maduro as much as possible, what is happening, they recognized gonzález as the president, so the reaction so far, we outlined what is happening in venezuela, venezuela is moving forward. expert of the latin study program america and the caribbean foreign policy council ukrainian prism, i bid you farewell, ladies and gentlemen, good luck, many useful victories, i wish you good luck.
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