they warn me and say don't do this, don't say this, and i can't, yes, but it's very strange here, mr. volodymyr, here when the new york times says, everything here is very strange, because the former congress is smart from the democrats suddenly moves to trump's headquarters and prepares him for a debate with garis, everything got mixed up there, tausia herbert long ago left the democrats, she is formally independent, works, in particular, on russian narratives, and this is an old story, i wouldn't even call her a democrat . it is really more correct to say the former a democrat, and now she's just looking for her place in the sun, as they say, like that robert kennedy, the candidate who has already proposed, it seems to both trump and harry, now, let me take off, but you find me some the corresponding ministry in the next administration is in place there, thank you, mr. volodymyr, volodymyr dubovik was with us, director of the center for international studies and associate professor of the department of international relations of the odessa national university named after mechnikov, roman and i will leave for a short time, because we will be on the air later. project by maria

in gurska, close to politics, close to the world, be with espresso. this is close to politics, close to the world, maria gurska, journalist of the ukrainian tv channel and eu sister portal, and pavel koval, head of the council for cooperation with ukraine, head of the committee on foreign affairs of the polish sejm, welcome, welcome you, as always we analyze the main ones. are taking place in two different corners of the world: in the usa, where the presidential campaign continues, and in the kursk region on the border territories of russia, where the offensive of the ukrainian army continues. let's start with russia, what do you think is the purpose and consequences of the unexpected operation of the ukrainian army in kurshchyna? in fact, not much is known for sure on this topic, and this is actually the thing that matters most now. interesting, it shapes the position

of ukraine. i broke down the answer into several points. point one, everywhere says that some kind of negotiations are being prepared. point two: president zelenskyi declares that he would like peace negotiations. of course, negotiations are not surrender. everyone understands that peace talks cannot mean giving up territories of ukraine and russia. so, the atmosphere of the assembly seems to be preparing for some kind of negotiations. whether this is true or not, we don't know to the end.

everything is okay, but what does all this mean from a tactical point of view, it depends on whether the armed forces will be able to get the occupied territories. if so, then this will not be an ordinary raid, a real territorial gain. if you analyze this in the context of future peace talks, such an achievement will help a lot, because there will probably not be a peace treaty based on this, but there will be a ceasefire, because the russians have to admit that they are already exchanging territories for others. its territories, so tactically it can be very beneficial for ukraine, or is it risky now? yes, it is very risky, but i am convinced that the ukrainian authorities had no choice, after another year of war, they had to decide on a step that is associated with great risk, but also opens up great opportunities. there is a lot of risk in itself, even a lot of chances. i believe that this is an incredibly important operation from the point of view of strengthening the national spirit, but also for informational influence in the world. everyone sees

videos from kurshchyna, recorded by local residents. ukrainian flags fly in russian cities, and the ukrainian military advises russians to learn the ukrainian national anthem and prepare for the referendum. the russians themselves say that if the russian army is not able to protect them, then the ukrainian army can, even a meme appeared that in the third year of the war, the russian army became the second in russia. what a spirit it gives to ukrainians.

this is something new for him, the oppositionist has never expressed such views before. it can be assumed that we are returning to the moment of the close attempt remove putin. it is worth looking at the incompetence of russia is happy. and blessed incompetence in the kurshchyna, because we rejoice in these events. in kursk, under kursk, plus , this situation is happening against the background of the exchange of a number of russian opposition politicians, as if someone from putin's entourage calculated different scenarios. in russia, this is always the case, it is not always obvious. they always play multiple pianos, and it's hard to interpret, but one possible interpretation in my opinion is that putin's entourage, some of his subordinates. also consider the scenario of russia without putin. agree that in this case we find ourselves in a completely different reality, and this is again positive for the fighting spirit of ukrainians. indeed, this year of war would have ended well without putin. there is a lot to trade when talking

about territories, because you can trade something for something, there is a new part of the political elite in russia, which, although it sounds a bit like putin, when it comes to general things like the great russian spirit, but still they. it's a bit like my favorite biblical phrase: sparrows sing all the secrets on the rooftops, so today it's as if there are no real ones secrets, at the same time, i think that the political

leaders were not immersed in the details, because the moment of surprise was still present, but for me it was important that the west took a legal position on this matter, and the legal position, ona esty tu bar is important, because..

to see the effect of ukraine's victory and lead to this victory. of ukraine. in your opinion, why have the partners not given ukraine permission to strike russia with western weapons? we hear how great britain said these days that it does not allow the use of stormshadow missiles on the battlefield during the offensive of the ukrainian army. what do you think about it? how did it appear?

this means that the thinking of the event is in the categories of those on duty. red lines has a different pace than in ukraine, it is true, and at the same time, the introduction of ukrainian troops into the territory of russia two or three years ago would have been subject to much wider criticism and attacks. that too would be widely criticized and attacked. should we expect changes in the near future, it means that we are waiting for changes, and maybe political ones. we expect changes and can accelerate them with political pressure, showing that only determined and unequivocal actions towards russia make sense, without hesitation. reluctance in the second week of the ukrainian offensive in the kursk region , russian president putin announced that peace negotiations with ukraine would be impossible from now on. how do you assess these statements, are they part of a political game? it simply means that putin

did not want peace talks because he imagined that peace talks would be based on the fact of his territorial superiority, but i don't even want to comment on that because i never for a minute suggested that peace was important to putin.

in order to properly understand russia's actions, you need to know that it is never known what is a conspiracy and what is an element of authenticity, some need for change, and what is an element of authentic change. i think that in many political actions in the russian system, these two elements are intertwined in such a way that it is impossible to separate them at all. we must always remember that several things are happening right before our eyes, and here i think there have already been two such approaches, perhaps it is a third one, do one thing, then do two things, like prigozhin. the first is prigozhin, the second is an attempt to insert navalny into politics. navalny definitely returned to russia

because he believed he had some support in the kremlin. i completely reject the theory that navalny was crazy, because some people say, well, a man who decided to come from germany because he loved russia so much, he was definitely a patriot, but he was also definitely involved in some kind of possible, at least in his imagination change of power. and i think that it failed with prigozhin, it failed with navalny, and now we see a new approach to such a scenario. the world is speaking more and more often about november as a decisive month for the war and the continued support of ukraine by the usa. as mr. otbera, how do you see these prospects and how do you think the situation with the election campaign in the usa is already affecting the state of affairs on the ukrainian front. in the us we

see very quick plot twists, it's hard to say how things will turn out, because we are recording this program, and in a few hours it may turn out that by the time of ateru the reality will already be different, although i remember people who from the beginning of the lesson i was told that biden would 100% go to resignation, then it seemed absolutely ridiculous to me, i remember how a few months ago i went to washington and everyone said that harris is meaningless, and all people today will not only vote for her, because it is known. states that will decide the outcome of the election, because in most states it is known who will get the electoral votes, and in fact you can say that there is no point in campaigning there. was with biden, the problems, as i recall, are in arizona and nevada, which are probably more positive for trump, but four or five

key states, including pennsylvania, wisconsin, minnesota, north carolina, i think, tend to support garis. sorry, georgia is still pro-trump, but most of what's going on in these sleazy states is reminiscent of what happened four years ago, so we'd bet on a cold turkey.

i gave political advice, although we do it somewhat quickly, because we delved into the analysis, if i were giving political advice, i would try to get to the bottom line, which instinct, because the instinct of isolationism in the united states, which makes us fear that the united states the americans will withdraw from central europe and do not support it. so it's not just trump's problem, we're afraid of trump for different reasons, he also has pros and cons, i like to build a pragmatic approach, because looking back at trump's time, you can say that for example, unpredictability can be an advantage, so you really don't know what he will do? before our

program, i read a recent article by the famous international journalist serhiy sydorenko, who writes for ukrainian. the truth about how trump's rhetoric has changed a month after attempt in one of his first speeches after the attack, he said he would unite, not divide, the united states. and it sounded like some new stage in the campaign. now with jaydy vance as vice president, trump is running a campaign that is surprising the world and lowering their approval ratings as they attack entire social groups. it is worth mentioning at least the last saying about kamala harris, that an unmarried woman with a cat cannot be a patriot.

this is how trump sounded after the attack in pennsylvania, and we have already talked about this state and its huge importance on the map. now there many voters and so everyone is trying to get votes in pennsylvania. trump felt very strong after the attack and called for unity. today, if he leans toward radical divisions, it is because he feels insecure, he does not feel like a favorite. it's just math after all. and trump miscalculates and makes mistakes. it 's not just that he makes mistakes, because whether it's a mistake or not depends on how you look at it, he doesn't do it by accident. this is part of the tactic to his headquarters, it is about full mobilization , first of all, of their own electorate, so this is their

tactic at the moment, i really don't like being a political scientist in the position of a politician, you dragged me into it, and i'm great. understand what they are doing, because they have noticed that voters are moving away from them, especially in key states. the fundamental issue is the rust belt, meaning states like ohio, minnesota and michigan, and trump actually thought he had the win in his pocket because he fielded jadi vence, but harris responded very well to the challenge, her running mate a person who has contributed a lot in the fight against poverty, this is also a signal from her side to these people from the rust belt. so what does trump do? why does it behave like this? but simply because he has to mobilize his voters to not pass him by, and he uses very radical, divisive language to mobilize the nuclear electorate. if he was

confident, we would be hearing it now, we all love america now. and instead he comes to a meeting with members of the association of black journalists in the usa and says that he is black work is work done by black people sounds ambiguous to say the least. he tries to play roles he can't play well, paradoxically, but i see his conversation with elon musk as a mistake or a great but missed opportunity. musk, who is the owner of twitter, i.e. xii, who previously stated clearly. who will not engage in politics, suddenly got into politics by his bootstraps and created a program on the media he owns. he did a trump conversation, but trump looked more like a grandpa on that show, and that's not some new release, although the performance was supposed to be tactical. if you analyze this campaign more deeply, at the end

of the holidays, it should have been like an opening. enough for himself, but we are even interested in barji, we are certainly interested in the decline in trump's ratings and his political mistakes in the campaign, but first of all, it is important for us how the candidate for the presidency of the usa sounds in relation to eastern europe, in relation to ukraine. for example, what he said about ukraine in the same interview with elon musk. everything that donald trump said only confirms that he has not changed his approach to the topic at all. he continues to think that he can agree with putin. several speeches by trump, including fragments about ukraine, which often appears in his speeches. he used this rhetoric to attack biden, but in reality, trump says such general things about ukraine that

you can build anything on it. well, the only thing that really upsets some is his words about the dialogue with putin. it's unnerving, the same way he talks, he chatters with putin. and a quick end to the war. well, yes, but you see, we just have certain assumptions that he has. mean because we let's assume that he wants to come to an agreement with putin, but without breaking his word he can, i don't know, give putin an ultimatum, that's how he talks. i'm not saying that he will do it, so that you understand me well, but trump's statements are so general that at some point, listening to his speeches, i got the impression that he often says everything well from a formal and theatrical point of view, but the content allegedly prepared by artificial intelligence, and what he says about ukraine, any story can be substituted for it, so he does not have there will be problems with ... to change his statements, his politics are characterized primarily by unpredictability, and this is both a plus and a minus, when i listen, i do not see a tragedy, but when jaydy vance goes into

detail, when he talks about ukraine, it sounds dangerous, but what trump is saying is so general that it can be read in either direction, the only thing anyone can care about is his plans to talk to putin, it's hard to applaud it, it's actually hard to act on it, i'll conclude by summarizing . what to expect from the election campaign in the usa in the near future and what tasks ukraine and poland face. everyone who is interested in world politics is watching the us election with interest, so i just advise those people to buy more chips and popcorn and watch, because it is all very interesting. things change every day, and you can see what 's happening in key states. key states. oh, you know, i think it's only possible somewhere in madeira or majorca, because in our... to anyone interested in the politics of

security in central europe of our interests, here i say, as a polish politician, it is necessary to look for connections and relations with both camps in the usa. this thesis of mine is more pessimistic, for example, in the garis camp, i know the politicians who are involved in the security of garis and i have a very ... good opinion about them, in the us, isolationist pressure will be everywhere, it does not matter if one wins and the other loses , we can't bet on just one, as some are trying to do, is congress. and any issues need to be well lobbied, both in the house of representatives and in the senate, if one is looking for recipes for good policy toward the united states based on national interests, not just curiosity, there is no better recipe than this. influence both environments, show arguments, report what is happening and work.

it would be a big mistake to assume, for example, that it would be a big mistake to assume, for example, that we will bet everything on the democrats, because in such a scenario it may even happen that the democrats will win in the end, but this policy of the democrats may, for example, go into in the other direction of the direction, also work and so the same evidence remains. therefore, the work remains unchanged. some people eat chips and are just interested in politics, are fascinated by political life in the us, and those who think about business and serious politics work with both political camps in america. thank you for this conversation, pavel koval, maria gurska. watch our programs in polish on the youtube channel of pavel koval, in ukrainian on the espresso tv channel, every sunday at 15:30 and 22:00 kyiv time, and read our conversations. in both languages ​​to eu sisters, thank you very much, thank you,

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