the russians are shelling peaceful cities, hundreds of wounded and dozens of dead. battle for donetsk region. why is it strategically important for the armed forces to hold the city of pokrovsk? reshuffles in the cabinet of ministers. the verkhovna rada dismissed and appointed several top officials. day of military intelligence of ukraine top-five brilliant operations from gur. congratulations to the viewers of the tv channel, the saturday political club, live ether, and today, vitaly portnikov, we are already traditionally in the studio, today, as always , we discuss, discuss, analyze the current week, the most important events for ukraine and world, this week was difficult for our country, lviv, kharkiv. poltava, sumy,

donetsk region, many cities and villages of our country were under the fire of the russian federation, many died, dozens of people, we see such a fire and air escalation, against our country, against our society, of course, our people, so we will speak normally now about the security situation, on behalf of saturday. political club, we express our condolences to all the relatives of the dead, to all ukrainians, to all citizens of ukraine who suffered on the current week from terrible, and i say again, terrible blows of the enemy. mr. vitaly, of course, let's start with this, let's start with this intensification of strikes, intensification of the russian language. of terror, you and i

already talked about this activation last week, last saturday, because it started, if i'm not mistaken, last friday, then there were sums, then there was kharkiv again, then lviv, poltava, well, that's us we know everything, we see how every night unmanned aerial vehicles are launched over the territory of ukraine almost in full mode non-stop what does this indicate and why exactly now the enemy has become so active in this period, because there were periods when there was some, well, if you can call it, relative calm, but right now, just the last, the last week, the last two weeks there we are observing such a large-scale escalation of violence against the citizens of our country, against the people who are currently on the territory of ukraine. well, i want to join in the sympathy. and to say that it seems to me that there

is nothing to discuss here, if we talk without pathos about such attacks, well, they are obvious stockpiled enough missiles, when they realized that they had enough missiles and drones, they began to act to destroy infrastructure, ukrainian to intimidate people, from the point of view of aggression, this is a completely understandable logic, if you have enough missiles to carry out a professional . a combined attack that cannot be completely repelled by an air defense system, the country you attack, you carry out such an attack, if you do not have enough resources, you do not carry out such an attack, i think we have already forgotten that in the first the weeks of the war were few, not every hour there were reports of some alarms about missile attacks, the russians had a huge number of missiles from warehouses. during this time, they

have already depreciated a large number of missiles, at least those like kinjak, like iskanders, ugh, ugh, they only have what they can produce, about 30 missiles per month, this is not enough to paralyze the air defense system , this system is still not enough for ukraine, because to destroy, say, daggers without patriots. it is impossible, it is not clear how the f16 will join here, it seems to me that they also do not work against such missiles, that is , an extensive network of patriot missiles is needed here, we do not know where they are, where they are not, and we should not know, but we can to imagine from the impact of daggers, where there are more of them, where there are fewer of them, at least when i was in lviv, there was just such a combined attack there, and if in... in

kyiv i could observe the destruction of daggers there to the city, then in lviv, i don't know what i was watching, but how much i managed to fight back there this attack as far as it hits. but again, this should be a combo attack. you must have ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones in sufficient numbers. remember a beautiful illustration of this whole story, not ukraine, it directly concerns, it is the iranian attack on israel. a combined attack, but a sufficiently extensive air defense system before approaching israeli airspace, all these missiles were destroyed. now, if russia receives a sufficient number of ballistic missiles from iran, then it is obvious that these attacks will occur. yet more intense than they were, and why? because it is necessary to have enough ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and missiles against drones, while part of the air defense system there is occupied by drones, part by cruise missiles,

the dagger can work more quickly, let's say, even in the presence of patriots , so i do not think that this is any special escalation of violence, i think that it is simply... a completely logical development of the war, when the aggressor accumulates a sufficient number of resources to attack some ukrainian positions, any, it can be positions in the armed forces, it can be infrastructure, it can be just intimidation of the population, it can be a demonstration that there is no safe place, it can be, by the way, attempts to destroy infrastructure of various nature, there are some railway nodes, we don't know for sure, but i don't... i don't see why to be surprised, frankly, when you say that there were relative periods of calm, well of course there were, they were stockpiling missiles, now they are again, if it turns out , that they do not have enough of these iranian missiles, their own, and they cannot physically produce more of them than they can, so this will also be a certain respite, ugh, then there will be a massive attack again

in 5-6 months, you can just sit down and calculate with a calculator, 30 missiles per month, well, that’s 30 rockets, i mean hasto. 1555, and yes, if in general, according to analysts, they produce up to 100 different missiles, i am talking about iskanders, because without iskanders, without daggers, it is not the same, not the same attack, they produce a lot of ordinary missiles, but if just shoot with ordinary missiles, it will not reach of the result, look at today's shelling of kyiv by drones, it was loud, unpleasant, well... uh, but it was all shot down, only the wreckage of the shahed was somewhere in the center of kyiv, by the way, by the way, kyiv is actually they are shelling, well, if it can be considered so, or they are attacking kyiv, kyiv region, in fact, since july 30 of this year, that is, in fact, for

a month and a half, such a nightly attack has been taking place, which according to analysts, according to analysts, is... nothing others, firstly, by moral pressure, and secondly, by hard work directions, of course, and besides, if you want to win, you have to destabilize the enemy's capital, destroy decision-making centers, destabilize the situation with the population, by the way, a large part of the population will be forced to leave, so that it will be easier to occupy the city later, this is a long-term war, for some unknown reason, we all the time think that putin is sitting there and thinking about how to end the war and... in general, he is completely frightened by the warrant of the hague tribunal, he is doing it, he is just clearly, cold-blooded, calmly, calculating plans in the destruction of ukraine and its capitulation, it is another matter that it is miscalculated, and we saw it again for 2.5 years and can see it for another 2.5 years, and then see it for another 2.5 years, but we have to

adjust to the fact that by then , as long as vladimir putin leads the russian federation, the war will most likely continue in various forms, perhaps even in the form of the kind of war of attrition in which we live. and there will be constant permanent shelling of russia, ukraine, russia, ukrainian territory, cities, destruction of infrastructure, killing of civilians, these are the realities of others there will be no realities, there is no need to look for a black cat in a dark room, here is a black cat peace in a dark room of war, that’s all, but if we are talking about ballistic missiles that were allegedly provided by iran to russia, allegedly, because there is no direct evidence yet until they arrive. the times, allegedly yesterday, the day before yesterday, these missiles were already delivered to the territory of the russian federation, we are talking about several hundred

missiles, from 200 to 300, again, according to these media, why did iran take such a step and decided on... these ballistic missiles, which we talked about with you, including those that iran itself needs, and again, according to the same foreign intelligence, it is about the fact that this could be... the first batch of missiles , then there are now discussions between the occupying state and iran about delivering medium-range missiles, i.e. plus or minus 500 km, including to russia. we are talking now, i want to emphasize to our tv viewers about short-range missiles, that is, approximately 100, 120, 130, but they already cover the entire territory of ukraine, why 500 km for the russians then. now we are talking about missiles, as far as i understand, about 120

km, 70 miles, oh, at least according to the times and the wall street journal, i don't know, we'll see, that's what we're saying again, we're just saying, yes, that is, we're talking about short-range missiles, the issue of medium -range missiles is supposedly being discussed, i.e. 500 + kilometers, mr. vitaly, still, why did iran take such a step, well, i think that for him it is just part of his political. worker with moscow, why shouldn't he go for it, well, they, for example, didn't give rockets before that these, that is, russia was negotiating, as far as i understand, with iran for a year, at least, maybe that's why they didn't give, because they thought that russia had lead, but now they see that russia can't cope with its arsenal, and absolutely it is obvious that the russians managed to talk them out, or maybe just pay money, iran needs money, we still have to remember that this is a country. which is under permanent sanctions of the international community, this can

be one opinion, and another opinion, maybe iran is interested in such global destabilization, no less than in russia, they can exchange destabilizations, for them it is a common front, a common front of the war with america, russia is waging this war on the line of confrontation with ukraine, iran is waging this war, relatively speaking, in the middle east, and by the way, when you tell them you need them. again, it depends on when they plan to attack israel, if they 've delayed that attack, and they're going to strike in 300, in three to four months, or not at all, we don't know until what conclusions did they come to? to choose a different form, well, maybe they just came to different conclusions when they investigated the murder of ismail hanniy, but there were many opinions that in fact israel did not organize it. ugh, and that ismailkhania could have become a victim of some internal conflicts in the most

politerrorist organization hamas, and imagine that the iranians found out about this, and then they understand that an attack on israel will make them look like fools, that those people who organized the murder of hania, let's say there, they mentioned the name of the current head of the politburo, hamas yaha senvar, other interested people, that they will just nadians laugh that we... your capital killed our competitor, and also created a situation of your war with israel, in which you yourself can be disinterested, because israel can already respond, well and by the way, this is also a question of striking back, so the iranians could have different motives, well, in general , i believe that after the iranians started supplying the russians with drones, the question of when they would give something else was a matter of time, well, north korea supplies russia rockets? these missiles have already fired at ukraine, they are simply low-quality missiles, yes, yes, but let's see how high-quality

these iranian missiles can be, let's see, we'll just see who else will look, if they are, but here the question is different, what will the united states do to answer this, because they understand very well that this is a story with the destabilization of the situation by iran, not only in the middle east, but also in the russian-ukrainian war, so this may already be a response from washington, but we do not know which i would consider the best the answer was of course, do everything possible and impossible to change this nature of red lines for ukrainian strikes on russia. well, if iran supplies russia with weapons and allows these weapons to be used throughout the entire territory of ukraine. including the sovereign territory of ukraine, which russia does not seem to claim. ugh. so why then can the west not allow ukraine to hit russia with its missiles? this is such a dire situation. it could be, well we see that as of now the position of the united states

of america anyway, at least as of today, so that this could change at any moment, even this evening, when the decision may be taken by the biden administration to authorize and provide, in particular, the physical provision of such missiles to ukraine, but at least this week, us officials and the secretary of defense himself , lloyd austin, stated that... that so far, the united states of america does not grant such permits, and that ukraine has its own weapons, by the way, this is austin's statement, has its own weapons, which it uses to strike at... the territory of the occupying state, so after all, if we are talking about this dimension, you see, we are asking, we are appealing, there are voices including our partners, the closest partners, there are the baltic countries, latvia, lithuania, estonia, there is the position of poland, there is the position of some other countries, in particular great britain, but still, even regardless

of this, this is another, i would say stage of terror, we... did not receive such permission, and this permission is clear, we need it in order to attack objects on the territory of russia, there are at least 300, 400, 500 km why is there such a slow-down on this issue, and is it really so? in your opinion, we can expect in the near future, given the development of these recent events, such and such missiles and such permits, well, i have repeatedly spoken about this form. formula, which consists of the fact that the west is waiting all the time for putin to draw the right conclusions, to realize that he will not be able to achieve his goal, the destruction of ukraine, that the west will not refuse to support ukraine, that in this way we will talk about that political and the economic trap that russia got into as

a result of this war, and that this trap will force putin to negotiate with agreement with ukraine to end this war, the only problem is that putin, as we said at the beginning of our conversation with you, he is not going to realize this, he is full of enthusiasm about the fact that this war should continue and should lead to the results he has planned for himself in 2022, and maybe even in 2014, and there can be no other results, and the price he is going to pay for it can be any, that is the only question. it is not a matter of west and victory, and the west is simple forced all the time now to move these red lines himself, he has no other choice, because if he does not move the red lines, putin moves the red lines, and if the west does not move the red lines, then it becomes absolutely obvious that the war can continue indefinitely, at least until

the parties' resources are completely exhausted, and this is an important issue of resources, that's what i spoke about today... it seems to me, general budanov, that this cannot go on forever, because we can run out of resources, and the russians can run out of resources, the question is which country economically, politically, and from a military point of view and demographically will run out first, and the country that runs out first and will lose, but it does not necessarily have to be ukraine, that is the focus, because again i repeat, if the west helps us, if we have economic opportunities, if we are in... those measures, let's say, like now during the pokrov operation, then we lose much fewer people than the russians who are advancing, because i want to remind that russia's goal is the complete occupation of ukrainian territory with the expulsion from this territory of all the population disloyal to russia, and this requires sacrifices, plus, well, you know, iran and north korea are of course important allies, but they are not the

allies that can form your arsenal for years, so this is also a question, but if ... to perceive all this statically, then russia really has time to drag out the war, at least until the moment when it hopes to exhaust ukraine. that's the whole logic. so, therefore, of course, these red lines must move. why they do not move, but it is also clear why. the first is that the west fears the possibility of a nuclear strike. it didn't happen anywhere. and i think that in the west they believe that putin is not so controlled that... not to make such a decision at a certain moment, but i personally believe that putin has such an idea when making a decision that is in no way related to external circumstances . it always amazes me when people talk about putin's revenge, that putin is taking revenge. by and large, putin is a calculator. calculators, they do not take revenge.

they calculate, they can make wrong decisions, they follow wrong ones decisions are made by the right ones. from their point of view, but this does not happen emotionally , in general, in politics, emotion is the worst, i would say, adviser, and we see that there are emotional people in politics, who, as a rule , make one mistake after another in their lives and in life of the country they will lead, putin makes mistakes not because he is emotional, but because he does not imagine the world he is in, and there is another important point for the psychotype of these people, if we are talking about this one about a nuclear strike, they not afraid... be wrong, do you remember this soviet tv series 17 moments of spring, this is the same film that formed the putin generation, ugh, so... all the young people who watched this film, how old was putin in 1973, well, he was 20, yes and he looked at this soviet spy

stirlitz, in this series the main element was analysis. stilz, if you remember, was given the task of finding out which of reich's top leaders was negotiating with the allies. by the way, historically, these negotiations really took place, they were conducted by general wolff, who was there in this movie. he conducted them under alain dalis with the full knowledge of stalin. the allies informed stalin of their consultations, which did lead to the surrender of part of the german forces in italy, but that is not the point. so, there is this myth, yes, which is this script of this movie. shtirets sits for several series in a row, analyzes who herin, goebbels, bormann, himmler are. and we see how the analysis works, imagine how passionate it is, you want to be a scout too. but remember andrii, shtilets was wrong, he analyzed five series in a row, i still made a completely wrong conclusion that

there could not be a western in any espionage detective, imagine, i don’t know james bond there, who is doing something and makes a mistake, and this is the norm, well, i was wrong and i was wrong, let’s move on, let’s work on the state further, insults, of course spies make mistakes, but this is not gold... that standard, in this soviet series it was a standard, soviet spies made mistakes all the time, not only in this film, but it was considered normal, because they the best their motives were mistaken, and we saw a person who suffered an obvious intellectual defeat and nothing, you can hit an enemy on the head with a bottle, do you remember how stilets corrected his analytical mistakes, he killed someone there, killed someone on the head with this bottle... . killed and hid the body in the lake, that is, instead of correctly calculating the algorithm of his actions, he resorted to violence,

and it was presented as an absolutely brilliant and correct way out of the situation, so what do you want from putin, that's why he is so dangerous. , because we believe that a normal person, if, if he realizes that he was wrong... with the blitzkrieg , he was wrong, he will do something to prevent the consequences of this mistake, and a person formed by a styrlitz thinks that it is necessary to just hit you and me on the head with a bottle, and that's it it will be okay, why did i analyze all this at all, after all, this is the logic of the soviet man that we see in the kremlin, so this is one point that must be realized, the fear of putin's inadequacy, and the lack of understanding of what to do if a nuclear state really ... refers to nuclear weapons non-nuclear, we do not know this, and the west does not know this, but there is strategic uncertainty, this is a serious problem, the second point, what is now being actively talked about,

you may have seen, spoke the spokeswoman of the pentagon, i think the defense minister of the netherlands spoke ee regarding the possibility of using western air defense systems there to close the ukrainian sky, the ineffectiveness of all these measures, this reveals. ineffective, the americans do not have many atacoms missiles, and if ukraine will use them on its sovereign territory the russian federation, it will not have enough missiles to fight on its territory. well, by the way, the white house also announced this. that is, the white house declared that ukraine will not be able to hit 90% of aircraft on the territory of russia with atacoms missiles, and the explanation was this, because they were relocated, although on... in fact, even today one of the analysts who is engaged in activity monitoring, in fact, within the reach of these missiles,

which is conventionally a 300 km belt, there are about 20 russian airfields, where either is based, or can be based, the tactical aviation of russia, well, that is the same question here, on the one hand they can be based there, on the other hand they can relocate them to siberia, in the far east, nothing will help, in this, by the way, the advantage of russia, here we ask, their territory, yes, why do they need ukraine at all, because they, they have always historically won at the expense of territory, ugh, because in principle you can go very far on the territory of russia, any army, even to moscow, as we know, it is possible to reach as the armies of napoleon bonaparte and adolf hitler reached, but further... where to go, you are bound to break away from the main supply centers and

there are not enough missiles in modern times to cover everything. territory, yes, and by and large there is still a huge territory, so the only real recipe for a territorial victory over russia, not in some naval battle, not in the japanese war, and not in the crimean war, in a territorial war, can be a joint exit, an exit on the territory of russia, the army of ukraine and the people's republic of china, if ukraine and china declare war on russia together, i will do it as they did, by the way, we are not a victim. as the soviet union did, germany and poland, ugh, ugh, well, if the soviet union had not struck poland in the back, molotov rebroho buttermilk, then of course the poles could still read and it is not known how the situation would have been further, but it was a blow in the back, in fact, and it's the same here, let's say that ukraine is in the courts, and the chinese are entering a state of peace, this is the end of the world, because now you imagine, you are putin, i ask, where to relocate

aircraft? but if this is not the case, then of course the russian state can enjoy peace from the point of view of the inviolability of part of its arsenals, well, by the way, by the way, if we recall the experience of the second world war, there was also a similar story there, when russia was rebasing its production facilities , including, including the production of weapons, ammunition there, and so on and the like, and not only, by the way, the capacity that concerns the production of weapons, but... in principle, many things, when they relocated there, relatively speaking, somewhere in the center of their country, that's all, so why, by the way, do you remember why they could do this, because there was a new non-aggression pact with japan, which japan never violated, and the soviet union violated at the request of the allies already after may 1945, well, if japan had done with the soviet union, the way the soviet union did with japan, it is not known how the position, the situation would have developed there, and

the japanese did not... they started to do it, maybe because they were not sure of the effectiveness of their army in the russian direction after hulkingol, by the way, we are coming to putin's visit to mongolia, well, the japanese and soviet armies met at hulkingola, and the japanese were basically defeated, they could not achieve the goals of their operation, and after that... there was an opportunity for such a reconciliation of the temporary japan and the soviet union, perhaps because by the way, for mongolia, for russia, khalhengol is of such great importance, but it is so, it is an opinion, because you are absolutely right, that they relocated everything there, the whole essence of the second world war was that they were able to relocate the military factories in the urals, in the center of russia, by the way, they

relocated many enterprises. you know there, what is the general effect of our and the belarusian economic disaster of the 90s, that they relocated a huge number of enterprises, light industry, food industry, and left them there, and left them there, and returned the military enterprises, so belarus and ukraine it was 1991 there, the vast majority of the economy that was based here was a military economy, the economy of the military industry, the whole economy that... by and large, ukraine and belarus also got heritage from the russian empire, and these were developed regions from an industrial point of view, because it was europe, then it all remained somewhere in saratov, and they did it specifically, as you understand, the external track, negotiations, mongolia, which we already talked about just mentioned, putin again... talked about

some negotiations, well, again, those negotiations that he sees in his head, based on the istanbul agreements, - putin stated, once again, he repeats this as a mantra more than once at various discussion panels, meetings and so on and so on so similar. he also stated that it is necessary to remove the bandits from kurshchyna and only then, relatively speaking, it will be possible to talk with ukraine. well, in general, putin did make his visit to mongolia, which we talked about exactly seven days ago, despite the fact that mongolia should, again, should have arrested putin, it did not, that is, in fact, putin, laughing so over international law once again spat on any international treaties, on the international.