by and large, putin is a calculator, calculators, they don't take revenge, they calculate, they can make wrong decisions, after making wrong decisions, they make the right ones from their point of view, but it doesn't happen emotionally , in general, in politics, emotion is the worst, i would say , adviser, and we see that there are emotional people in politics, who, as a rule , make one mistake after another in their lives and in the life of the country they lead. putin makes mistakes not because he is emotional, but because he does not imagine the world in which is located and there is another important point for the psychotype of these people, if we talk about this one about a nuclear strike, they are not afraid to make mistakes. do you remember this soviet series 17 moments of spring? this is the film that shaped the putin generation. ugh. all the young people who watched this film, how old was putin in 197, well, he was 20, yes, and he

looked at this soviet intelligence officer stirlitz. in this series, the main element was analysis. stirlitz, as you remember, was given the task of finding out which of reicho's top managers was negotiating with allies by the way, historically, these negotiations really took place, they were conducted by general wolff, who was there in this film, but he conducted them according to alain dalis from the full video. stalin, the allies informed stalin about their consultations, which did lead to the surrender of part of the german troops in italy, but this is not what we are talking about, so there is this myth, yes, which is the script of this film. stiretz sits for several series in a row and analyzes who herin, goebbels, bormann, himmler are. and we see how the analysis works, it turns out that we will like it, you too you want to be a scout, but remember andriyuvych, tilits was wrong, he was analyzing.

five series in a row, still made a completely wrong conclusion that there could not be a western in any espionage detective, imagine, i don't know james bond there, who does something and makes a mistake, and that's normal, well, he was wrong and he was wrong, we moved on, we continue to work for the state, insults, of course spies make mistakes, but this is not the gold standard, in this soviet series it was... the standard soviet spies were wrong all the time, not only in this movie, but it was considered normal because they were wrong for the best of reasons, and we saw a person who suffered an obvious intellectual defeat, and nothing, you can hit the enemy on the head with a bottle, remember how the stiletz corrected his analytical errors, he killed someone there, hit him on the head with this bottle, killed someone and hid the body. in the lake, that is, instead of

blitzkrieg correctly calculating the algorithm of his actions, he resorted to violence, and this was presented as an absolutely brilliant right way out of situation, well, what do you want from putin, that's why he is so dangerous, because we believe that a normal person, if he realizes that he made a mistake, he made a mistake, he will do something ... to prevent the consequences of this mistake , and a person formed by a stirlitz, believes that you and i should just hit us on the head with a bottle, and everything will be fine, why did i analyze all this at all, in the end. here is the logic of the soviet man we see in the kremlin. so, this is one point to be aware of, the fear of inadequacy putin and the lack of understanding of what to do if a nuclear state really uses nuclear weapons over non-nuclear ones. we are this. we don't know, and

we don't know the defender, there is strategic uncertainty, this is a serious problem. the second point, you may have seen what has now been actively discussed, said the spokeswoman of the pentagon, i think the defense minister of the netherlands spoke, regarding the possibility of using western air defense systems there to close the ukrainian sky, the ineffectiveness of all these measures, it turns out to be ineffective, here americans don't a lot... and if ukraine uses them on the sovereign territory of the russian federation, it will not have enough missiles to fight on its territory. well, by the way , this was also stated by the white house, that is, the white house stated that ukraine will not be able to hit 90% of the aircraft on the territory of russia with atacoms missiles, and the explanation was as follows, because they were relocated, although in fact, even today, one from analysts. which are engaged

in activity monitoring, actually within the reach of these missiles, and this is conventionally a 300 km belt. is about 20 of russian airfields, where russian tactical aviation is or can be based, well , that is the case here too, the bottom line is that on the one hand they can be based there, on the other hand they can move them to siberia, the near east, there is no such by the way, the advantage of russia will help in this, we ask, their territory, yes, why do they need ukraine at all, because they, they have always historically won on the score. uh, uh, because in principle, you can go very far on the territory of russia, any army, even moscow, as we know, can be reached, as the armies of napoleon banaparte and adolf hitler reached, but where to go next? you are bound to break away from the main centers

of supply and missiles in modern times , there are not enough missiles to cover the entire territory, ugh, but by and large... there is still a huge territory, so the only real recipe for victory over russia is territorial, not in sea battles , neither in the japanese war, nor in the crimean war, in the territorial war, there can be a joint exit, an exit to the territory of russia, the army ukraine and the people's republic of china, if ukraine and china declare war on russia together, i will do it as they did, by the way, we are not kidding, as the soviet union, germany and poland did, huh. well, yes, if the soviet union had not slapped poland in the back, and rebentrop's molotov pact, then of course the poles could still read it and it is not known how the situation would have turned out, but it was a slap in the back, in fact, and here it is the same itself, let's say, there ukraine is in trouble, and the chinese are entering the blagoveschinstvo, that's it

the end of the world, because now you imagine, you are putin, i ask where to relocate the planes, but if there is no such thing, then of course the russian state can enjoy itself. peace from the point of view of the inviolability of part of its arsenals, and by the way, by the way, if we recall the experience of the second world war, then there was also a similar story when russia redeployed its production facilities, including, including in the manufacture of weapons , ammunition there, and so on and the like, and not only, by the way, exactly the power that concerns weapons production, in principle many things , when they relocated there, relatively speaking , somewhere in... the center of their country, that's all, why, by the way, do you remember why they could do it, because the massive non-aggression pact with japan, which japan never violated, was violated by the soviet union at the request of the allies already after may 45, if japan had done with the soviet union the way

the soviet union had done with japan, it is not known how there would be a position, the situation was developing, but the japanese did not do it, maybe that's why... that they were not sure of the effectiveness of their army in the russian direction after hulkingol, by the way, we are coming to putin's visit to mongolia, ugh, the japanese and soviet armies met at hulkingol, and the japanese were basically defeated, they could not achieve their goals e operation, and after that there was an opportunity for such a reconciliation of er... temporary japan and the soviet union, perhaps that is why, by the way, for mongolia, for russia, khalhengol is of such great importance, but it is so, it is an opinion, because you are absolutely right that they are all there were rebasing, the whole essence of the second world war was that they were able to relocate military factories to the urals, to

the center of russia, by the way, they were rebasing many enterprises, do you know what the effect of our economy and the belarusian economy is? the catastrophe of the 90s, that they relocated a huge number of enterprises of light industry, food industry, and left them there and left them there, and returned military enterprises, so belarus and ukraine in 1991, the vast majority of the economy that was based here was military the economy, the economy of the military industry, the whole economy, which by and large went to ukraine as well. and belarusians as a legacy from the russian empire, and these were developed regions from an industrial point of view, because it was europe, so it all remained somewhere in saratov, and they did it specifically, as you understand, the external track, negotiations,

mongolia, about which we have just mentioned, putin again spoke about some negotiations, well those again. the negotiations that he sees in his head, based on the istanbul agreements, - said putin, once again, it's him repeats like a mantra, more than once in various ways. discussion panels, meetings and so on and the like. he also stated that it is necessary to remove bandits from kurshchyna, and only then, conditionally speaking, it will be possible to talk with ukraine. well, in general, putin did make his visit to mongolia, which we talked about exactly seven days ago. despite the fact that mongolia should again, should have arrested ... putin, she did not do it, that is, in fact, putin, once again laughing at international law

spat on any international treaties, on the international criminal court, well, it was quite clear, and mr. vitaly and i talked about it, and i repeat it again exactly seven days ago in this studio, if we talk together about this track of changes, about which putin said and his arrival in mongolia. why is putin talking about negotiations again, although it would seem that two weeks ago, three weeks ago, four weeks ago, putin, peskov, there were other so-called talking heads of russia talking about the fact that there will be no negotiations, that is, or not do you consider it another, another thorn in the eye, as they say, on international platforms, again, well, in general, here is his trip to mongolia, how do you evaluate it? well, if... we are talking about negotiations, then once again i remind you that putin is one way or another,

he is not only a politician, he is also a gambler, the task of a gambler is to confuse the public, so today you say one thing, tomorrow you say another, we , everyone is lost in what he really wants, he wants to destabilize the situation, i can tell you this for sure, that is, first he speaks, in order to start negotiations, ukraine must withdraw. their troops from the donetsk, luhansk, kherson, zaporizhzhia regions, demilitarize, de-nazify. now we are talking about the istanbul agreements, but i think that in reality it is still simpler, when he talked about all these donetsk, luhansk, kherson and zaporizhzhia regions, he said this in russia at internal meetings, uh, at some meeting there security council, at a meeting of the security council after. kursk oblast, he generally said that there was no need for any talks with ukraine now, that was all

designed for an internal audience, we are angry, we will never talk to them with these nazis who occupied the holy russian land, of course, now this is the east, the eastern economic forum, that is, putin’s speechwriters are given a task, this is just the plan, it is being written, write theses of a possible peace process by ukraine, yes. to please the countries of the global south, it is not about istanbul as an entity, it is about what he will be happy to see as mediators of the countries of the global south, and not the west, and i'm sorry, i think he said that at one, at one of the regular brics meetings, he also said it, actually, and now he said it at this eastern session, that is, when he sees them in front of his eyes, as you... understand, then he wants to say something that they took as

a sign of respect, and he does it, uh, why not do it, it's worthless, but china and brazil have put forward a peace plan, it's basically against his interests, because he doesn't would like a ceasefire on the contact line, he does not really want it in principle ceasefire and definitely on the contact line, but why not tell him that he supports it, that he wants them to be mediators, they will be happy, they are important to him, they help him prevent sanctions. china helps him survive at all, what's the problem? well, he said, tomorrow there will be a new event, the press service will write new theses, it's almost like the theses to medvedev, but medvedev has another idea, if you like, it is that he sticks to himself the city fool, and today they wrote to him post that the united states will soon dis... and what is there to do with them, they will disintegrate, this is the answer to the statement that russia will disintegrate, made by certain

experts and politicians there, well, you believe that russia will disintegrate, we believe that the united states will disintegrate, you and i already flowers, that's all, well, that is, i would not pay attention to these words, i proceed from the axiom that russian-ukrainian negotiations on the end of the war are impossible in principle, that you can forget about it for the simple reason that the tasks of the russian federation . a logical task from the point of view of restoration of imperial powers is taming ukraine and occupying our country and creating at least a sphere of influence from... uzhhorod to ashkabad, maybe not a common state, it is always a question whether they have enough strength to create a state, because they may now think that this is a mistake to make a common state, as they once annexed galicia to ukraine, but as a result, yes, why experiment again, you can make a vassal state, but this entire zone must be russian, ugh, and of course with a russian army that can be

there to enter and exit, like in kazakhstan, huh. entered, left, like this, this model means that peace talks are impossible here, negotiations on a ceasefire are possible, as i have already said, at the moment when the demographic, economic, military and political resources of the warring countries are exhausted, and this is a question that ukraine has to fall a day later to russia, that's it, nothing else will happen, there are no other formulas, you can hold dozens of peace forums there, meet, travel to... eastern politicians or putin to eastern politicians, it will not help anything. the conflict is existential, existential, such conflicts do not end, if they begin, then one should simply, i would say, realize this and live in a state of this conflict without inventing unnecessary illusions, and without trying to understand why he said all this.

again, the ceasefire could be at least tomorrow, if he realizes that it is not profitable for him to climb any further. here we are with... kicking them, let's say, somewhere, they will break into our defense like a rock, if such a thing, like a rock, if it is possible, and, let's say, their attacks will not lead before the ukrainians freeze in winter, well, that means we need to gather forces, we need a ceasefire, if this level of attack does not work, then we need another much stronger one, but it needs to be constructed, maybe it will be in 5 years, so such a ceasefire is possible , i don't see everything else. yet a real application? mongolia: putin arrived in mongolia, mongolia is a party to the rome statute, ugh, should have arrested putin, we also predicted, talked, discussed it, but less so, the fact is the fact: putin arrived, putin was received, putin

spoke, chatted, expressed his point of view and went back. to russia, mr. vitaly, what consequences will this have for international law, in general for the geopolitical model, none, none, i can explain to you why, there is also a simple formula, putin, of course, really wanted to laugh at the international criminal court, he laughed , he succeeded, he came to a country that signed the rome statute, went back, he was met there with an honor guard of... there were no lawsuits, none the citizen did not file a lawsuit in his own court, this is an important issue with the demand to arrest a war criminal who arrived on the territory of mongolia, did you see this story that a certain polish citizen filed a personal lawsuit against zelenskyi

in volyn, so it is obvious that zelenskyy definitely does not... give for volyn, but as the president of ukraine, he became a participant in this lawsuit for her, she is trying to use the law of her own country, that is, we can be surprised to treat this, this lawsuit of hers, as propaganda, but this is how the law works in democratic areas, the court can take note of this and can answer that i am sorry, this lawsuit of yours is not against us and is inappropriate, well, according to the law, well, but informationally certain, well, when i have what to do in mind the president of sudan, amar albashar, arrived in the republic of south africa at the invitation of the president of the republic of south africa, the previous jako bazuma, also like putin to mongolia, there was a court decision that he should be detained, uh, it just did not have time to be implemented, and they are fine they understood that there might be a court decision, they just organized it so that he managed to leave,

ugh, ugh, there was nothing like that in mongolia, so what am i leading to, it means that it is necessary... andriy, that the formula should be mutual, to be able to come to a country like mongolia, and to have the court controlled in that country, that is, it is necessary to take a list of countries that are signatories of the rome statute, cross out from this list all countries in which the judicial system is not controlled by the president or the monarch, ugh, that is putin wanted to go to the south african republic, him explained that the court... the decision can be you, if, well, if you don't have time, then you, well, this is despite the fact that the republic of south africa is also quite a corrupt country, but despite this, it is a democratic country , a democratic country is relative, there can be... these are all essentially federal countries, there can be at the level of the subject of the federation

, the decision and whether the city is ruled by the opposition , and this is already absolutely in brazil, and anyway, president lula himself was he was put in prison by a court that could put him in prison in brazil own president or parliament speaker, so why can't he impeach putin? well, that means we are crossing out all these countries, we only have countries in which the president controls the judicial system, like mongolia, and in which no citizen will even try to do anything, because he is aware of the dependence of his country on russia, well, these countries become even less, do you understand which countries putin can theoretically make his next trip to, whether and whether he will generally try at least... only if he is provided with, no, well, it is clear that before with this, certain negotiations will be held, and it is clear that there will be, as they say, for and

against, the kremlin regime, as many as these countries, but it must also be understood, in principle, there are not so many countries that signed the rome statute, however, then , again, this is still a matter of air. it is necessary to cross this airspace, we are talking about countries that not only signed, but also ratified the rome statute, not just participants of the international criminal court, well , this is a huge problem, you see, by the way, putin may want to go to armenia to armenia, that's what it really was. for him , it is such a moment to put prime minister nikol poshenyan in a difficult situation, but you see, somehow he does not go to armenia very much, he went to mongolia rather than to

armenia, this is also an important moment, because there are countries , who will simply somehow try to do everything that he did not arrive there, and this is also huge. the problem that exists in this, in this country, in general 122 countries followed the rome statute, i see, yes, yes, yes, that, well, this is most of the world, well, that's right, but it's democratic part of the world, don't forget, there are only 193 countries in the un, it's a pain, if you look at the map, yes, i look too, and we see that it is in general. african countries, they, among them there are also those who control the judicial system, those who do not control the judicial system, this is a whole, of course, he will look for such countries,

yes, that's all, but there are not many of them, like you see, you can completely cross out europe, north america, cross out, latin america cross out, because there are no dictatorships controlling the judicial system, so there are still some isolated countries in asia. there are very few of them, they did not ratify almost anything there, as you can see, there are no such countries in asia, in fact, japan does not count, however, and if it were not there, oh we, by the way, dear viewers, we are now on on the screen we can see this map, that is , only african countries remain, yes, which mr. vitaly and i are currently considering, you can now see this map on your screens. and here you can see the member states that have signed and ratified it in green, that is they signed in yellow,

but did not ratify, and there is also orange , they signed, but then withdrew, and did not sign, did not ratify there, putin is interested in precisely those countries, which, as we understand, were in principle signatories and ratifiers of this. of this agreement because everything else is absolutely irrelevant and there's a huge problem, of course, so, as they say, the choice is not that big, the choice is not that big, i think they 've tried to push this poor mongolia into that the visit is quite long, we still understand, and by the way, when this visit took place, our colleagues... from the democratic press specially recorded a clip, translated it into russian, that you don't understand that we, 95% of our oil products come from russia, we

cannot arrest you. for the simple reason that we are between russia and china, and here the question is obvious, that if putin came to you, you cannot arrest him. the question is why you invited him, well, you invited him precisely because he told you that you want further economic cooperation? well, of course, in in such a situation, we can have economic cooperation, only if you come to our meeting, and most importantly, the consequences, the international criminal court has no right to even suspend the powers of the judge from mongolia, who recently. began work in the panel of this court, in principle, there are no real consequences, except for such a conditional disgrace, there are no mongolia's decision to invite and release putin, and that is why it is a precedent, but i repeat, a precedent only for those countries in which the authorities clearly control the judiciary power, and putin understands this very well, that in some india, as you understand, he does not

move, not even. if he is invited three times to a rendramody, because on a rendramody, like lula, like cyril ramaphosa, like everyone else, they cannot give him security guarantees, a person like putin will not go anywhere in his life without a security guarantee, and that is why he can yes, this is such a pyrrhic victory, you see, you can go somewhere a couple of times, but in any case , most of the world remains untouched for him, well, let's continue our conversation live in a few minutes... short break and we'll be back, don't switch. when you sleep on an uneven surface, the spine takes the wrong position, because you cannot feel energetic in the morning and productive during the day, and with the toper matrik you will forget that you are sleeping on an imperfect surface. order toper matryk for comfortable sleep at an affordable price. more and

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the collaborators program. ministries of the occupiers, whom did the rashists appoint as leaders? i want russia to be on the lands of the kherson region, and it will be. but how did the fake minister rob his owners of millions of rubles? accused detained. on tuesday, september 10 at 5:45 p.m., watch the collaborators program with olena kononenko on the espresso tv channel. hundreds of thousands of square meters of damaged property. houses that need to be rebuilt, about the situation with reconstruction in different regions of ukraine, about people's rights, opportunities and personal experience. this is what olga's house looked like last year, and this is what it looks like now. i am not spending money at the moment. about how to unite the country in the process of recovery in the project of the program of reconstruction and development of cities. every saturday at 18:30 at espresso.