will force putin to negotiate with the west, with ukraine, to end this war. the only problem is that putin, as we said at the beginning of our conversation with you, he is not going to realize this, he is full of enthusiasm about the fact that this war should continue and should lead to the results that he planned for himself in 2022, and maybe even in 2014, and there can be no other results, and the price he is going to. anyone can pay for it, this is a question exclusively for him, not for him the question of the west and victory, and the west is simply forced to move these red lines all the time now, it has no other choice, because if it does not move the red lines, putin moves the red lines, and if the west does not move the red lines, then it becomes absolutely obvious , that the war can continue indefinitely, at least until the resources of the parties are completely exhausted, and... well, this is

an important issue of resources, this is what general budanov spoke about today, i think, that it cannot be endless, because and we may run out of resources, and russians may run out of resources. the question is which country economically, politically, and from a military point of view and demographically will be the first to run out, and the country that runs out will be the first to lose, but it does not necessarily have to be ukraine, that is the focus, because i repeat again, if the west helps us, if... we have economic opportunities, and if we are on the defensive, let's say, like now during the pokrov operation, then we lose much less people than the russians who are advancing, because i want to remind you, what the goal of russia is the complete occupation of ukrainian territory with the expulsion from this territory of all the population disloyal to russia, and this requires sacrifices, plus, you know, iran and north korea, of course important allies, but these are not the allies that can form your arsenal. for years, so this is also a question, but

if we perceive all this statically, then russia really has time to drag out the war, at least until the moment when it hopes to wear out ukraine, that is the whole logic, so, of course, these red lines have move, why they don't move, but it's also clear why, the first is that the west will be afraid of the possibility of a nuclear strike, it hasn't happened anywhere, and i think that... in the west they believe that putin is not controlled enough to not to make such a decision at a certain moment, but i personally believe that putin has such an idea about the decision, which is not related to external circumstances in any way, i am always surprised when people talk about putin's revenge, that putin is taking revenge. by and large, putin is a calculator. calculators, they are not take revenge they calculate, they can make the wrong decision. after

wrong decisions, they make the right ones from their point of view, but this does not happen emotionally, in general, in politics, emotion is the worst, i would say, adviser, and we see that there are emotional people in politics, who, as a rule, make one mistake on the other hand, in his life and in the life of the country they lead, putin makes mistakes not because he is emotional, but because he does not imagine the world he is in, and there is one more important point for the psychotype, this... people if we are talking about this, about the nuclear strike, they are not afraid to make mistakes, do you remember this soviet series 17 moments of spring, this is the same film that formed the putin generation, ugh, all the young people who watched this film, how old was putin in 1973, well, it was 20, 20, and he was looking at this soviet scout stirlitz. in this series, the main

element was analysis. stielje, as you remember, was given the task of finding out which of the reich's top leaders was negotiating with the allies. by the way, these negotiations are historical there really were, they were conducted by general wolff, who was there in this film, but he conducted them under alain dalis with the full knowledge of stalin. the allies informed stalin of their consultations, which did lead to the surrender of part of the german forces in italy, but that is not the point. for several series in a row, analyzes who is herin, goebbels, bormann, himmler, and we see how the analysis works, imagines how to capture it, you also want to be a spy, but remember andrei, stilets was wrong, he analyzed five series in a row , did anyway it is an absolutely wrong conclusion that there could not be a westerner in any espionage detective. i don't know, there's james bond,

who is doing something and makes a mistake, and this is the norm, well, he made a mistake and made a mistake, let's move on, we continue to work for the state. imagery of course spies make mistakes but it's not the gold standard in the soviet series it was the standard soviet spies were wrong all the time not only in this movie but it was considered normal because they were wrong for the best of reasons and we they saw a person who suffered an obvious intellectual defeat, and nothing, you can hit the enemy on the head with a bottle, remember how stilets corrected his analytical mistakes, he killed someone there, killed. er, with this er bottle on the head, he killed someone and buried the body in the lake, that is, instead of correctly calculating the algorithm of his actions, he resorted to violence, and it was presented as an absolutely

brilliant, correct way out of the situation, well , what about you want from putin, that is why he is so dangerous, because we consider that... a normal person, if, if he realizes that he was wrong, and with the blitzkrieg he was wrong, he will do something to prevent the consequences of this mistake, and a person formed by styrlitz believes that it is necessary to just hit you and me on the head with a bottle, and everything will be okay, why did i analyze all this at all, after all, here is the logic of the soviet man that we see in the kremlin, so this is one point that must be realized, the fear of inadequacy. putin, and not understanding what to do if a nuclear power does use nuclear weapons by non-nuclear we do not know this, and the west does not know this, there is strategic uncertainty, this is a serious problem. the second point, you may have seen what has now been actively discussed, spoke the spokeswoman of the pentagon, i think the defense minister

of the netherlands spoke, regarding the possibility of using western air defense systems there for closing. for the ukrainian sky, the ineffectiveness of all these measures, it turns out to be ineffective, the americans do not have so many atapak missiles, and if ukraine will use them on its sovereign territory the russian federation, it will not have enough missiles to fight on its territory, by the way, the white house also announced this, that is, the white house announced that ukraine will not be able to hit 90% of aircraft on the territory of russia with atacoms missiles and. .. it happened because they were rebased, although in fact, even today one of the analysts who are engaged in activity monitoring, actually within the reach of these missiles, and this is conventionally a 300 km belt, there are

about 20 russian airfields, where or is based, or can be based tactical aviation. the territory will not help in this, by the way, yes, why do they need ukraine at all, the advantage of russia, we ask, theirs because they, they have always historically won at the expense of the territory, well, because in principle you can reach the territory of russia very far, any army, even to moscow, as we... can reach, as the armies of napoleon bonaparte and adolf hitler reached, but where to go next? you must break away from the main centers of supply and missiles in modern times, there are not enough missiles to cover the entire territory, yes, but by and large

the account still has a huge territory, so the only real recipe for victory over russia is territorial, not in sea battles, not in the japanese war. ugh, and not in the crimean war, in the territorial war. there may be a joint exit, exit to the territory of russia, the army of ukraine and the people's republic of china. if ukraine and china declare war on russia together, i will do it as they did, by the way, we are not joking, as the soviet union, germany and poland did. uh, uh, yeah. if the soviet union had not struck would poland back. the fact of molotov ribbentrok 39, then of course the poles could still be read and it is not known how the situation would be further. but it was a blow in the back, in fact, and it's the same here, let's say, there ukraine is in suzhe, and the chinese enter blagoveschinsk, this is the end of the world, because now imagine, you are putin, i ask , and where to relocate the planes, but if this is not the case,

then of course the russian state can enjoy peace from the point of view of the inviolability of part of its rational by the way, by the way, if we recall the experience during the second world war, there was also a similar story there, when russia was rebasing its production facilities, including, including for the manufacture of weapons, ammunition there, and so on and so on, and not only, by the way. precisely the power that is related to the production of weapons, in principle, many things, when they relocated there, relatively speaking, somewhere in the center of their country, that's all, so why, by the way, do you remember why they could do it, because the new agreement on non-aggression with japan, which, which japan and did not violate, and was violated by the soviet union at the request of the allies already after may 1945, if japan had acted with the soviet union as the soviet union had acted. japan does not know how the position of the situation will develop there, and the japanese did not begin to do this,

perhaps because they were not sure of the effectiveness of their army in the russian direction after hulkingol, by the way, here we come to putin's visit to mongolia, ugh, japanese and the soviet army met at hulkingola and the japanese were defeated in principle , they were unable to carry out their entire operations and after that there was an opportunity for such a reconciliation of the temporary japan and the soviet union. maybe that's why, by the way, for mongolia, for russia, khalhengol is of such great importance, but it's true, it's an opinion, because you're absolutely right that they were rebasing everything there, the whole point of the second world war was that they were able to rebase military factories in the urals the center of russia, by the way, they relocated many enterprises, there you know what the general effect of our and the belarusian

economic disaster of the 90s is, that they transferred a huge number of enterprises of light industry, food industry, well, they left it there, and they left it there, and they returned the military enterprises, that is why belarus and ukraine were there in 1991, the vast majority of the economy that was based here was a military... economy, the economy of the bod, the entire economy, which would have gone to ukraine and belarus as an inheritance from the russian empire, and these were developed regions from an industrial point of view, because it was europe, it all remained somewhere in saratov, and they did it specifically, as you understand, the external track, negotiations, mongolia about... which we have just mentioned, putin again spoke about some negotiations, well

, again, those negotiations that he sees in his head, on on the basis of the istanbul agreements, - putin declared, once again, he repeats this as a mantra more than once at various discussion panels, meetings and so on and so on, he also declared that it is necessary to take the bandits out of the kurshchyna and only then... conditionally speaking, it will be possible to talk with ukraine, and in general, putin did make his visit to mongolia, which we talked about exactly seven days ago, despite the fact that mongolia should again, should have arrested putin, it did not, that is, in fact, putin, yes laughing at international law, he once again spat on any international... treaties on the international criminal court, well, it was quite clear, and we

talked about it with mr. vitaly, and i repeat it once again, exactly seven days ago in this studio, if we talk together this is the track of changes that putin said and his arrival in mongolia, why is putin talking about negotiations again, although it would seem that two weeks, three weeks ago, four weeks ago putin, piskov. there, other so-called talking heads of russia talked about the fact that there will be no negotiations, that is, do you not consider this another, another dust in the eye, as they say, on international platforms, again, well, in general, his trip to mongolia, how do you rate it? well, if we talk about the negotiations, then again, i remind you that putin, one way or another, he is not only a politician, he... he is also a habist, the task of a habist is to confuse the public, you

say one thing today, tomorrow you say another, we, all of us are lost in what he really wants, he wants to destabilize the situation, i can tell you this for sure , that is, first he says that in order for negotiations to begin, ukraine must withdraw its troops from the donetsk, luhansk, kherson, and zaporizhzhia regions, demilitarize, and nazify, now we are talking about the istanbul ones. arrangements, but i think it's actually still easier, that's when he talked about all these donetsk, luhansk, kherson and zaporizhzhia regions, he said this in russia on the inside. ugh meetings, at some meeting of the security council there, at a meeting of the security council, after the kurt region, he generally said that there is no need for any talks with ukraine now, it was all calculated for the internal audience, we are angry, we will not be with them at all never talk to these nazis who occupied the holy russian land, of course,

now this is the east-eastern economic forum, that is, putin's speechwriters are given the task, it's simple... write out theses of a possible peace process by ukraine in such a way that the countries of the global south will like it, there it is not about istanbul as an entity, it is about what it will be happy to see as mediators of the countries of the global south, and not event, and i'm sorry, it seems he said it at one, at one of the regular meetings within brics, he also said it. as a matter of fact, and now he was speaking at this eastern session, that is, when he sees them in front of his eyes, as you understand, he wants to say something that they seen as a sign of respect, he does it, uh, why shouldn't he do it, it 's worthless, but china and brazil put forward a peace plan, it's basically against his interests, because he wouldn't want

a ceasefire on the contact line, in principle, he does not really want a ceasefire and is definitely on the line. but why not tell him that he supports it, that he wants them to be mediators, they will be pleased, they are important to him, they help him prevent sanctions, china helps him survive in general, what is the problem, well he said, tomorrow there will be a new event, the press service will write new theses, it's almost like the theses for medvedev, for medvedev there is a different idea, if you like, it is that... he portrays himself as a city fool and today he was written a post about that , that the united states will soon disintegrate, and what is there to do with them, they will disintegrate, and this is the answer to the statement that russia will disintegrate, which is made by certain experts and politicians there, well, you think that russia will disintegrate, we think that the united states will fall apart, you and i already flowers, everything, and that is

, i would not pay attention to these words, i proceed from the axiom that the russian-ukrainian will win. they are about the end of the war in principle impossible, that you can forget about it for the simple reason that the task of the russian federation, a logical task from the point of view of the restoration of imperial powers, is to tame ukraine and occupy our country and create at least a sphere of influence from uzhgorod to ashkabad, which may not be common states, it is always a question whether they will have enough strength to create a state, because... they can now to believe that it is a mistake to make a common state, as they once annexed galicia to ukraine, but as a result, yes , why experiment again, you can make a vassal state, but this entire zone must be russian, yes, and of course with russian an army that will be able to enter and leave there, as in kazakhstan, it entered, left, that's how,

this is the model, which means that peace negotiations are impossible here, negotiations on a ceasefire are possible, as i already said. at the time of exhaustion of demographic, economic, military and of the political resources of the warring countries, and it is a matter of ukraine having to graze a day later than russia, that’s it, nothing else will happen, there are no other formulas, you can hold dozens of peace forums there, meet, go on visits to western politicians or putin to eastern politicians, it will not help. the conflict is existential, existential, such conflicts do not end if they begin. so you just have to, i would say, realize this and live in a state of this conflict, without inventing unnecessary illusions for yourself, but you can't without trying to understand why he said all this, again, the ceasefire can be at least tomorrow, if he understands that it is not profitable for him to climb further, then we will stop them, we will say somewhere, they will break into our

defenses, like a rock, if this is like a rock, if it is possible, and... let's say their attacks will not lead to ukrainians freezing in winter, well, then we need to gather forces, we need a ceasefire, if this level of attack does not work, then another is needed , is much stronger, but it needs to be constructed, maybe it will be in 5 years, so such a cease-fire is possible, everything else i don’t see a real application yet, mongolia, putin arrived in mongolia, mongolia is... a party to the rome statute, ugh, putin should be arrested, we also predicted it, talked about it, discussed it, but less so, the fact is the fact, putin... arrived, putin was received, putin spoke, chatted, expressed his point of view and went back to russia. what consequences will this have,

mr. vitaly, for international law, in general, for the geopolitical model, none, none, i can explain to you why, there are too simple formula: putin, of course, really wanted to laugh at the international criminal court. he laughed, he succeeded, he came to a country that signed the rome statute, certain, well, when, well, when, i mean, when the president of sudan, amar albashar , arrived in the republic of south africa, at the invitation of the president of south- the african republic of the previous jacob zuma, also like putin before mongolia, had a court decision that he should be detained, well, it just didn’t have time to be implemented, and they perfectly understood what could happen a court decision, they just organized it so that he... managed to leave, ugh, ugh, there was nothing like that in mongolia, so what am i leading to, then, andriy, it is necessary that the formula be mutual, so that it is possible to come to

a country like mongolia, and for the court to be controlled in this country, that is, it is necessary to take the list of countries that are signatories of the rome statute, delete from this list all the countries in which the judicial system is not... controlled by the president or the monarch, ugh, that's putin wanted to go to the republic of south africa, it was explained to him that the court decision could be, you, if, well, if you do not have time to escape, well , this is despite the fact that the republic of south africa is also a rather corrupt country, but despite this, it is a democratic country, a relatively democratic country , there may be a judge who will make such a decision, and then he may have problems, but he can brazil, then you don't forget, these are all essentially federal countries, there may be at the level of the subjects there. the decision of the federation and whether the city is ruled by the opposition and it is absolutely in brazil and that's it, well president lula himself was in prison, he

was imprisoned by the courts themselves, that the court in brazil can imprison its own president or the speaker of the parliament, so why can't it imprison putin, well, that means we are deleting all these countries, we only have those countries in in which the president controls the judicial system, and in which not a single citizen will even try to do anything, because he is aware of the dependence of his country on russia, well, these countries are becoming even fewer, you understand which countries putin can theoretically make his next voyage to, and we need, and will he be in general to at least try to implement and only if he is provided with no, well, it is clear that before this some certain negotiations will be held, and it is clear that there... there will be, as they say, for and against the kremlin regimes, as many of these countries but it is also necessary to understand, in principle, there are not

so many countries that have signed the rome statute, however, then, again, this is also a question of air space, it is necessary to simply cross this air space, we are talking about countries that... do not just signed and ratified the roman s not just the participants of the international criminal court, well, this is a huge problem, you see, by the way, armenia, putin may want to go to armenia, this would really be such a moment for him to put prime minister nikol poshenian in a difficult situation, but you see, somehow he doesn't go to armenia very much, he... it's better to go to mongolia than to armenia? this is also an important point, because there are countries that will simply somehow

try to do everything that he did not arrive there, and this is also a huge problem that exists in this country, 122 countries in all, thus ratified the roman statute. here i look, yes, so, well, this is most of the world, well, that's right, but this is the democratic part of the world, don't forget, there are only 193 countries in the un, it's a pain, if you look at the map, yes, and i look and we see that these are generally african countries, they, among them there are also those who control the judicial system, those who do not control the judicial system, this is the whole, he will. of course, such countries, that's all, but there are not many of them, as you can see, you can completely cover europe, north america

strike out latin america strike out. because there are no dictatorships there that would control the judicial system, so there are some isolated countries in asia, there are very few of them, they have not ratified almost anything there, as you can see, there are no such countries in asia, in fact, japan does not count, the truth, and if it weren't for us, by the way, dear viewers, we can now see this map on the screen. only african countries remain, yes, which mr. vitaly and i are currently considering, you now see on your screens this map, and what you need there is the green color, and here you see the member states that have signed and ratified it in green, and in yellow , they signed but did not ratify, ah, and there is also an orange sign, but then they withdrew, and they didn’t sign, they didn’t ratify putin there , it’s interesting about those countries that... uh, as we

understand, in principle, were signatories and ratifiers of this agreement, because everything else has absolutely no meaning , and there is a huge problem here, of course, so what so, as they say, the choice is not that much choice, i think they tried to sway this poor mongolia to that. quite a long time, we still understand, and by the way, when this visit took place, our mongolian colleagues from the democratic press recorded a special video, translated it into russian, that you do not understand that 95% of our oil products come from russia, we we cannot arrest putin for the simple reason that we are between russia and china, and here the question is obvious that if putin

came to you, you cannot arrest him. the question is why you invited him, well , you invited him precisely because he told you that you wanted further economic cooperation, well , of course, in such a situation we can have economic cooperation, only if you come to our meeting, and most importantly, consequences, the international criminal court does not have the right to even suspend the powers of a judge from mongolia, who recently started working in the panel of this court, in principle, no real consequences except for such a conditional disgrace. mongolia's decision to invite and release putin, no. and that is why this is a precedent, but i repeat, a precedent only for those countries in which the government clearly controls the judiciary, and putin understands this very well, that in some india, as you understand, he will not enter, even if he is invited three times at the rendering , because in rendramod, like lula, like cyril ramaphosa, like everyone else, they cannot give him security guarantees, a person

like putin will not go anywhere in his life without... security guarantees, and that's why he can, that's such a pyrrhic victory, you see, you can have a couple once to go somewhere, but in any case , most of the world remains untouched by him, well, let's continue our conversation live, in a few minutes, we will have a short break, and we will be back, don't switch, an unusual look at the news: good hello ladies and gentlemen, my name is... sharp presentation of facts and competent opinions, for example, if mykola veresen had done this, he would have gone to prison, a special view on the events in ukraine, so it is not necessary to say that the fish is rotten from the head, no, not from the head, and beyond it, then who is in favor china, my heart hurts, all this in an informational marathon with mykola veresny, saturday 17:10, sunday 18:15, on espresso.

we will be right back, andrii.