lyon, that is, western leaders will also meet there, it is obvious that the strategic course regarding the further russian-ukrainian war will be discussed, and volodymyr zelenskyi will be at this session, so it is obvious that he will meet with western leaders, so this is just preparation for a new stage war, shall we say, to the war in 2025, and it is obvious that the war in 2025 must be different from the war in 2024, as the war in, say , 2026. if it continues, which is likely to differ from the 2025 war seasonally. we are not even talking about a year now, but it is clear that in november and december there will be a lull in hostilities, preparation for a new round of hostilities in the spring, so how should events unfold? well , it is obvious that the issue of the ukrainian army's use of long-range weapons of the west, it should become a serious signal for russia, by the way, it is not even... the question of whether

this use can significantly change, as you understand, the very situation related with the course of hostilities, because we do not know how many missiles we have, how many long-range missiles are currently in service of the ukrainian army, i think the financial times wrote about it, will really be able to change the situation related to the russian military arsenal. or ukraine will always receive new batches of, say, british missiles, or not only british missiles. so, this is one question, and it is a question of a signal for putin. the second question, of course, it says that, and this is also a signal for putin, even if these missiles will not be seriously engaged, er, and even if there will be single strikes, they may be single strikes on sensitive areas. here's another one

the signal is that the west is moving on, this is an important moment, and indeed putin, he said that look, if these missiles will take off from ukraine, they will not be able to find the target without the help of american intelligence satellites, so we will assume that in this way the united states and its allies are directly involved in the war, and that the west did for biden, biden brushed off these words of putin, so. in principle, it also demonstrates, well, you can threaten us, but we will not pay attention to it, because our position does not depend from your porgo threats. this is an unpleasant thing for putin. the next point is that, in principle, the russians are convinced that their tactics, that they will force the west to exhaustion and to hold consultations with them in order to end the war on their terms, it is not given in any way. well, this is also a very important point from this signal, will there be... an official

authorization for the use of these missiles, as it should be, that keir starmer or someone from his government will come out and say, we have decided that storm shadow missiles can be used by ukraine for strikes on russian territory federations, ukrainian citizens, as they say, were expecting this all week, sat by, sat by the screens, when there were strikes by storm shade in crimea, were there such statements? no, the result is important. i think that it will not be announced in any case, i will even tell you otherwise, andriy, maybe first we will find out that russia used iranian ballistic missiles, and some fragments of these missiles will be found when shelling some ukrainian city or its military object, after that the russians will find some kind of debris on their heads western missile, and by the way, this is what can prevent the russians from using

iranian missiles, because they will understand very well that maybe they are pulling the trigger, which will change the situation really to a new level of escalation, which they themselves do not want, imagine that you are putin and you think that what should i do to prevent the west from actually allowing the use of these long-range missiles, well, obviously not to use the iranian ones, and if i sneeze, if i want a new escalation, if i think that i re... in this escalation, if the more escalation, the better for me, well , then of course i will use iranian missiles in order to receive western missiles in return and maybe in turn take a new, even more serious step to further escalate the situation, that is how drones are now flying into the territory of nato countries, maybe at some point, because we must remember all the time that we are, in principle, approaching the third world war with you, this is a train that goes to this station, and we must realize that ukraine is only an intermediate and not. ..

the main peripheral station of this train, this missile will hit the territory of a nato member country, and this is where the west's reaction will be important, will it decide that it is accidental? whether he decides that this is a deliberate provocation, there is something to think about, here i am for this, something to watch, in the coming months, maybe even in the coming weeks, because this train of world war iii is moving so fast, so fast, and by the way , russia announced the testing of nuclear weapons for the first time in as many as 32 years, it seems, on in its eastern part of the territory, i.e. as far as... i understand, it will be about the fact that, relatively speaking, one of the tactical, i emphasize once again, tactical political missiles will be used by russia on its territory for such alleged training and testing purposes, well of course, but this is

again a game-changing moment, as you understand, because everyone said that russia would never be able to decide to use nuclear weapons without training. previous ones, that conducting nuclear exercises is already the first step towards the use of nuclear weapons on any territory, including on the territory of ukraine. well, that means training is an element, the first step of intimidation of a more global one, right? yes, this is the first, no, it is not intimidation anymore, it is the first step of preparation. ugh. intimidation is when you talk, and when you test, you prepare. this can somehow change or affect the united states of america, the bloc of... nato regarding the supply of something to ukraine, well, not the fact that yes, i think they are ready for this, everyone perfectly understands that they did not say, that the possibility of using nuclear weapons of the russian federation in the war against ukraine is on the table, it may simply never happen, but you saw that recently the director of the central

intelligence agency of the united states , bill berne, said that in 2022 his organization's experts assessed the possibility of russia using nuclear weapons in war with ukraine. as very high, after that the risk of this use disappeared, why? because the front line froze, then the ukrainian troops advanced quite rapidly, then a large part of our troops was released territories, russian troops were forced to leave the north of ukraine, russian troops were knocked out of the kharkiv region from kherson, and against this background, of course, it is simply necessary to understand this formula... the greater the successes of the ukrainian troops on the russian-ukrainian front, the greater there is the benefit of the russian federation using nuclear weapons in the war with ukraine. that's clear. again, this does not mean that it will be used. but the probability increases, at least that's how it 's analyzed. here are two such as you know how

on the scales of the old, well, it’s such a hill, put up this hill and this hill goes up, here you put up the hill of ukrainian victory, the hill of nuclear weapons rises from... the eggs of ukrainian victory decrease, the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons decreases, it’s a simple formula, and the front line froze, that is, the ukrainian troops did not seriously advance anywhere, the russian troops did not advance either, we entered the situation of such a blind corner of pat, which may be partially interrupted there by what is happening in the kursk region, but this the controlled territory is too small in volume to be able to significantly change this very feeling. in fact the same movement in the pokrovsky direction, about a square kilometer away, of course, i absolutely agree, so now there is no such moment, but putin, in principle, wants to be ready

for the use of nuclear weapons in case the situation changes dramatically or there is one more moment if russia really decides that without real intimidation of the west it is impossible to achieve the goal as we do'. the destruction of ukrainian statehood, and this goal is not going anywhere appears from russian plans, it will exist, in principle, we just have to understand that even if we reach a truce with russia in some perspective, the goal of destroying ukrainian statehood is not shared anywhere, our goal, as i already said, is long periods of peace, in which we will prepare for short bloody wars, this is how we will live for the next decade, most likely, if we do not become members of nato, but, and i hope that we will, then we will not live like this, but in... in this situation, in this situation the important thing is that they can decide that they need to bang on the west, not on us, if they decide that the west is directly participating in the war, decide to decide, they do not need anything for this,

and they can to decide at any moment without any new missiles, but stormshadow was in sevastopol, the west is participating, so what? sevastopol is no different from, say, an attack on some object near bryansk or near moscow, well, from their point of view, it means that they are not resolved, but they will take will decide, but... putin may get the idea that if he hits some military object, a western one, then the west understands that it is necessary to stop playing, so to speak, and that's why they don't just are raising the level of tension, they are threatening the americans with a war on their territory, you saw how sergey lavrov said that the americans there hope that the war will start on the territory of europe and the world, no, we will fight on the territory of the united states. it is also such, i would say, a special accompaniment of the election campaign in the united states,

that is also clear. you mentioned this meeting of everyone with everyone, and about big meetings, about big trips to ukraine, great britain, and the united states of america, and we talked about it as a context for discussing the possibility of using western weapons in america. british on the territory of russia. i don't think it's american. well, in theory, in theory, because we don't really know what will be resolved. don't you think that there could be, including other topics, discussions, key actors, international, key actors in relation to ukraine, what i'm talking about is this parade of peace initiatives. and zelenskyi talks about it, almost at every speech, sholtz joined in, who very

actively began to develop the topic, and the topic is not exactly in a pro-ukrainian way, we will probably talk about this separately, that is, don’t you think, that someone is discussing these peace initiatives, which, as you already said at the beginning of our program... in your opinion, do not carry, relatively speaking, any meaningful load so far, you know why i think there is no point in talking about any peace initiatives, it's like in the old joke about the russian empress, you know this joke, how makler offers her to a man from some russian province, that he married his son to a russian empress, and he says to him, why me the empress, she won't work, she will lie there until... the 12th day in my bed, and i have to work here, i have cattle here, i have

a farm here, i have, well, maklino says, but she is a rich woman, your son will live like an emperor, well and they argue for a long time, and in the end the man says: i am ready to see his son for the russian empress, what should be done? he says: negotiate with the empress, convince the empress, so i wonder when we hear all the... proposals from olaf scholz, from donald trump, jd vance, even from volodymyr zelensky, well, we have already convinced the russian empress, well, that is, vladimir putin absolutely ignores any peace initiatives, realistically, even when he says that he is ready to listen to some proposals from the countries of the global south, then they start again the same conditions, the withdrawal of donetsk and luhansk troops. kherson, zaporizhzhia regions, demilitarization, de-nazification, istanbul agreements, yes, yes, where there is

a refusal, very often sound, which were never initialed and signed, but there is, as you know, in the appendix, the demilitarization of ukraine, and so on , and if he is not going to negotiate on any fair terms, why are we discussing the details of these peace plans, they say that... ukraine will be forced to give up its territories to russia, which means to give them away, we control them, how it is possible to give what you don't have, we don't have it, do we have to be convinced to give up these territories in a legal way, no, the west says that this is impossible, from its point of view we must clearly state that these are our international recognized territories, even if we do not control them, well, why do they say that, i think that this is just a diplomatic game, it has nothing to do with reality ... it has no relation, that is, everyone has their own reasons, well, what reasons does volodymyr

zelenskyi have, we we understand, these are not even reasons to keep ukrainian society is in a state of waiting for some kind of peace, it seems to me that ukrainian society has already realized that we are only in the first years of this long war, and that there are no people among us who believe that the war there will end in the near future, but ukraine's allies should see that we want peace and are ready for negotiations for... some time, no, we still said that we are ready for a just peace, but now we say that this, what are we talking about, we have a peace formula, there is a plan for the implementation of this formula, there is the first peace summit, agreed upon on some points, now the second peace summit, we will agree on some more points, we will invite russia, do you think russia will come, no, well,

of course not, but president zelensky must demonstrate now that he is inviting russia, and she refused. i would like to remind you that even during the first peace summit, swiss diplomats offered the minister of foreign affairs of the russian federation, sergei lavrov , to join this meeting, and he responded quite harshly that, firstly, russia is not going to participate in any formats initiated by ukraine, and these are the rules that will be spread to these peace negotiations in the following years of this war, and secondly, that switzerland is not a friendly country, well, maybe now there will be an attempt to hold a summit in countries that are friendly with russia and... and then, that she was invited to this country, well, i don't know, maybe in beijing, but it wasn't there in beijing, well, it's an interesting idea, but again, even the presence of russia at some kind of peace summit in beijing hardly gives any hope that the war will end on those terms, on which we would like, uh, that is, practically, when lavrov comes to russia to the peace summit in beijing, this means

concessions on our part to a certain extent, you understand, this is a completely different plan, this is not zelensky's peace formula, this is a peace formula. putina sitzen pinya. scholz and divens announced roughly the same plan, well , plus or minus divens said more about nato, scholz said about certain territorial compromises. well, divens actually also talked about territorial compromises. and somehow it all coincided in time. why is it clear why divens says this. and it is clear that there really can be a plus or minus somewhere. which trump's position, we don't know at all what trump's position is, but we guess whether this is the end of the war in 24 hours or in 48 hours, it can only be this way, and here is scholz, who spoke about supporting ukraine, that germany will be there with ukraine until the end, and so on and so forth, why did he suddenly come out with such initiatives that to

some extent contradict the interests of ukraine, and what do you see there? he says that russia will be invited to the peace summit, about territorial concessions directly, but he did not directly say that there will be territorial concessions concessions, well, he is talking about the fact that ukraine may have to, conditionally speaking, give up some that, and by the way, the head of the faction, his political force, the social-democratic, if he proposes to create a committee of some kind to prepare to clarify, he clarified a little , here i am now tu-du-du-du-du, create a contact. group and stated that the contact group should include china, india, turkey and brazil, that in order to play the role of mediator, but we also say all the time that we want the country to be global, i don't see anything here there is no particular inconsistency with the ukrainian position, in this case it is some kind of political position of scholz in order to act as such a chancellor of peace, perhaps this is

an internal political situation connected with the fact that there is an alternative for germany, the arabyat alliance. the need for negotiations to show that the social democrats are not hawks either, they are also supporters, not just russia, because this is all simply what i am leading to, that it all coincides after the elections took place, about which we talked a lot with you, and and the elections that will take place, it seems to me next sunday, in branderburg, yes, yes, that could be part of that story, about jd vance, well, you see, there's some logic there too, again, i'm not discussing territory, i'm always reminding, if we don't we will be able to liberate these territories by military means, there is no possibility of political return of these territories, well , you just have to tell yourself, this is how many years the republic of turkey has controlled the so -called turkish republic of northern cyprus,

74 years is how many 50 50 years in this year and 50 years. the war ended, the demarcation line was drawn, and there is still no progress in the territorial unification of cyprus. moreover, just now i read about such an amazing situation that netflix had to show the famagusta series about how the events related to the occupation by cypriot-turkish troops took place, well, again, it is also difficult to call it an occupation, because turkish always speaks , that she opposed greek radicals who could cause serious problems for the turkish population of cyprus, but russia also said the same thing about crimea exactly, this was the tracing of this operation, in 2014, the operation of the 74th year of turkey. they just trashed her, and netflix pulled the show, well pulled it, pulled it in turkey, everywhere

except greece, all over the world, all over the world, it will be in greece, it will be in greece, yes, well, it's just that we understood how it is that turkey can even do more than russia, ugh, in this regard, but again, if we cannot politically and militarily liberate these territories, then we must prepare for... the thing about their stay in the russian federation, not by 5 years, but by 55, we either win it back by force, or we enter the process of hoping that one day russia will change so much that the new russian leadership will be ready to return the occupied territories. well, by the way, in 1974, i also read some texts there, when in greece, in cyprus, they believed that things would change when. then it will be possible to solve the cyprus issue, the turkish language has been changed several times over these 50 years beyond recognition, there were democratic, secular regimes,

military regimes, then erdogan began, but the consensus in turkish society has always been very simple: this territory should not be given away, well , it is clear that a similar consensus regarding any territorial possessions has always been in russia, and will be, and will be, because this is the essence of russia. that we should give up control over the territories, i say again that we should not have any illusions, president zelenskyi is absolutely right when they say that we can use political tools to return these territories if we do not have military power, that is, if there is no military forces, at this moment, we agree on an armistice, on ending the war, and we do not recognize that these territories are the territories of the russian federation, and the russian federation does not recognize that these are the territories of ukraine. pakistan believes that it is pakistan, india believes that it is

india, half of the territories are under the control of pakistan, half of the territory is under the control of india, it is yakni, zaporizhzhia or kherson region, that's all, that's what we're really talking about, is such an option possible in the context of the current discussions of the so-called peace initiatives. what, if such a desire ever appears not in us, but in russia, so far president putin is saying that a prerequisite for the end of the war may be the withdrawal of ukrainian troops from all territories that russia has declared as its own, but i also do not think that that's a serious proposition, firstly, it's humiliating, so why should we bring in troops from an area they can't capture, secondly, can there be a situation where military... operations end at the demarcation line if they have will not have enough strength to continue fighting, but let's return to jay's proposal again divens, jay divens says, on

the frontline of the cease-fire, it is like the chinese, and not the entry of ukraine and the entry into, but together with you, that ukraine should be armed so that russia can no longer attack it. and tell me, please, if you are putin, are you interested in such a peace agreement? why are you on your line? er, er, a clash where you know that russia ukraine claims these territories and you claim ukrainian territories? why are you armed with americans in ukraine? that is, even the proposal is quite liberal in relation to putin, relatively speaking, from the trump camp, it does not suit putin either. of course, she is not a liberal, it is an open mockery of putin, when jay divven says, we will arm ukraine so that she... is naked for you ? no, he says that what is needed is not just the withdrawal of troops and not just non-introduction, but demilitarization, fixing the number of the armed forces of ukraine, how many there are

60,000 according to the istanbul agreements, something up to 100,000 , well, with russian inspection all the time, no modern techniques, that is, this how to explain to you, this is belarus, well, from the point of view of military belarus, well, in fact , belarus is like that, and at the same time, imagine the political processes in such a country, imagine that such an agreement has been reached, demilitarization, war ended, then the parliamentary elections, and here you are going to the parliamentary elections, andriy, we must have a strong state that will resist russian aggression, prevent us from seizing more territory, who will vote for you when you know for sure, you are citizens of ukraine, that you about basically lost the war, it's just a pity for you, but... the americans and the russians allowed it to exist, but you don't have an army, well, you're like some kind of scumbag, it's not even belarus, it's such a scumbag, it's just a big possible for

the territory. well, if you want to survive, then you have two ways to survive in such a country, or you, well, not in such a country, in general two ways to survive: either you leave here, huh, because you think that russia will definitely come again , or do you think that it will not come if you elect such a government that will definitely be friends with putin, no, well in that case what we are saying is a creeping occupation, it is a creeping political occupation, similar to the one in georgia, or even worse. after the southern one, in the same place , it was not only about limiting the army, it was also about the russian language, where nazification is, there is still a whole, well, in the appendices, it is also about including the political degradation of the ukrainian state and its sliding into the conditional sphere of influence of this russian world or russia, as you call it, and on a temporary basis, because if you do not have

army, you can't stand for... even that. well, a pretty simple plan. now the question is, if jay divens is telling putin, you know, nothing is going to happen. we give you these territories, in fact. we agree that ukraine will not be a member of nato, although in fact putin does not care at all, he does not care too much, but that ukraine does not exist. but ukraine, that part of ukraine that you did not succeed in conquering, you will not succeed in conquering, because there will be such weapons there. that your army will simply be destroyed in 48 hours, there will be missiles, there will be planes, there will be there tanks, so it will be, i don’t know, like sweden, let’s say, before joining nato, sweden has a very strong army, and so does putin, but putin doesn’t care to sign it now, when he has the power, well, even if he agrees with the fact that such a situation is inevitable, well, we are sitting in the kremlin with you at a meeting, a meeting of the security of the russian federation, and i am telling you. like patrushev, this

situation is inevitable, volodymyr volodymovich, in the morning, we will not have enough resources, we will have to deal with this version of trump evens, well, if trump becomes president, in the end agree, well, let's fight, uh, as long as we have resources, maybe we will capture something else, if we really have to come to terms with the fact of the existence of such a ukraine, then maybe we will capture it at least along the dnieper, well , at least the kharkiv region, well, at least myho, that's all. what we can capture, let's capture, everything we can destroy, let's destroy, and then, well, we'll sign this peace agreement, well, but why now, when we're advancing, why now, when we have a missile to destroy their energy even more , why now, when we can still destabilize their situation, why do we have to treat it now, but i say that there are necessary conditions even for the implementation of this vance agreement, this is the exhaustion of russian potential from

the point of view that they ... can't go anywhere further, because, this our understanding that their infrastructure attacks do not lead to sensitive results, two, and that is that they lose economic and demographic three, they are not us, and if these three conditions are combined, there is a chance that they will say, well, sure you can already agree to some conditions there, even on the terms of militarized ukraine, because if we lean against the wall, then it's already ours, well, taken away. if we fire at them, they still exist there with light and water and do not leave anywhere from there, well, well, but so far i do not even see such prerequisites, even in the distance, well, we will actually follow this, and here of course, as they say, there are absolutely valid opinions about, about everything,

a couple of minutes of pause and... and we'll be back with new topics, don't switch, saturday politics club! a journalist who joined the zsu, political expert, who became a special agent, taras berezovyts in a new project on espresso. the real front is a thorough analysis of the main events. reports, comments of leading specialists and experts. and... how to make sense of alarming news and distinguish the truth from the enemy and dog. the real front program with taras berezovets every saturday at 21:30 on espresso. a new week on espresso, a weekly, summary informational and analytical program. a clear understanding of the key events of the past week, an analysis of the causes and consequences of these events from experts, forecasts of the development of the situation for the current week, the opportunity to ask your own

questions. join the discussion, spend with...