the missiles were delivered to the territory of russia on september 4, well, the next step is the technical process, as they say, after all, we understand that this is not a matter of one day, we understand that the russian military on the territory of iran learned that during the summer of this year 2024- there were no longer just any consultations, there was direct preparation for the delivery of these ballistic... missiles, that is , the decision was made much earlier, nevertheless, if we are talking about this is as far as the delivery of these missiles and their most likely future use, i think it is again still, according to reports from the white house, it is a matter of several weeks, to what extent it can change the schedule, conditionally speaking, of supporting ukraine, well , and the second question, iran still... still

decided on this step, can it continue to deliver ballistic missiles, let's assume already longer range, there is an average range of 400, 500, 600 km, by the way, the american press also assumes this and says that such a possibility is currently being considered, well firstly, i believe that raran can afford anything, that he is not risking anything, that is, everything that he risks, it can also happen in connection with short-range missiles. nothing happens from changing the missile level. second, it is obvious that a certain group of allies has formed in the world, which works together to destabilize the west, and not only in the post-soviet space, but also in the middle east, because iran plays the main violin in the middle east for destabilization, and russia helps it , and russia is playing. the main violin

in the post-soviet space in the war with ukraine, and iran is helping her here, also, by the way, not everywhere, but you may have noticed that when russia again brought up this issue of a transpordon corridor between azerbaijan and nakhichevan, its autonomy, which is separated from the main part of azerbaijan in iran, and for this corridor to be controlled by the fsb of russia, nobody in tehran liked this, so there are many interests that... they are not common, but when there are common interests, anti-american, they are happy to use these interests, this is such a very important moment in my opinion, and this is the result of the war, there are three countries, who are willing to exchange weapons because obviously that both russia and north korea are helping, for the sake of joint confrontation with the west, and there is another interesting thing, two of these countries are russia and... iran already and north

korea already have nuclear weapons, and iran is close to it receiving literally in a short time, if it is not hindered, that is, it is also a nuclear coalition, that is, it does not foresee any actions that could lead to the external liquidation of the regimes established by these countries, this is a serious test for west, this is a more global story than just there the war in yugoslavia or the war in syria, so this is one moment, another moment is very important in this situation, it is connected, of course, with the fact that iran absolutely does not pay attention to any western remarks, it even laughs, the foreign minister of iran said, listen, we have absolutely no intention of supplying russia with missiles, and in general, we have been under western sanctions for decades, we have no advanced ones. technologies, and you boast

that we supply russia with missiles, which we have it cannot be in such a sanctions situation, well, this is a complete delusion, we have seen the shelling of israel by real iranian missiles, with a high range, and the debris that was found in many countries near israel, this is no secret, and when the iranians say that in we don’t have such weapons at all, this is certainly a mockery, well, the iranians also declared that they did not supply anything, moreover... iran summoned the ambassadors, yes, part of the states of the civilized world, and declared that this is absolutely a lie, and no one has any rockets from russia did not supply that it was some kind of misinformation policy of the united states of america, well, they did exactly the same with drones and with shaheds, so they said that they did not supply them, they supplied a certain batch, but before the war, uh, that is, they absolutely calmly believe that in relations with this hostile... world

, outright lying is the best tactic, and no one has allowed themselves to do this before either, that's why when they tell me, look, putin made such a statement, putin made such a statement, well, read it the statement of the minister for... the case of iran, who say that there are no missiles, and then you will see how these missiles will be fired at ukraine, but what does it really change? oddly enough, this frees the hands of our allies to a certain extent, in short, they say: "listen, if you entered into a direct confrontation with us, if you use not only your equipment for the war in ukraine, but also equipment related to iranian production, then we can allow ukraine more than we have allowed so far, so that ranju doesn't ask you how far you are you send your missiles to the one you want, you send them to the one you want, and here with ukraine, if we agree with the point of view that the weapons

supplied to ukraine are already ukrainian weapons, then i think that this idea, which we heard for the first time after the offensive of the armed forces of ukraine began, by the way. in the kursk region, this idea can be extended to missiles, and this is an important point that, by and large , iran's supply of missiles to russia, well, first of all, it proved that russia is not going to end any war, i don't understand why at all there are still some illusions about the quick end of this war, and secondly, the fact that the allies can act like the allies of russia, it's all the same to them and the allies are all the same, i don't know if there will be an announcement. it is somewhat real that we will be able to use western missiles to attack the sovereign territory of russia, but this is a direct consequence of these iranian actions, as a pretext, on the one hand, and as a demonstration of the russian federation's reluctance to end the war, on the other hand. if we are talking in

the context of a safe, security situation, in including north korea, as far as i understand, also handed over a new batch. missiles of russia, well, again, the western world says that they will apply sanctions to iran, sanctions to russia, we understand that such sanctions are unlikely to be effective, so they may be more effective in relation to russia than to iran, in this case, what are the consequences for iran, or will there be none at all? i think it's real. a consequence of iran's participation in destabilizing actions towards ukraine may be that the united states will turn a blind eye to certain israeli actions against iran. that is, it is obvious that there are many people in the israeli government who are literally scratching their hands to destroy some of

iran's nuclear reactors, to prevent iran from continuing its nuclear program, but the americans and europeans are constantly grabbing their hands and saying, don't do it, so... . that we already know, there will be an escalation, we cannot allow such an escalation, we will somehow make an agreement with them, we will force them to stop enriching iran, or not to start it, we let's talk with them there in strict khtana and so on, well as you can see, iran and the russian federation absolutely do not listen to this, how they will talk to it, so in this regard, this can ease the position of israel, israel is interested in this from its side, because it is clear that i. .. was and remains the main sponsor of these proxy groups that destabilize the life of israeli society, not only since october 7 of last year, but since october 7 as well, it is hamas, we we understand that it is under the complete iranian, so i would say protectorate, and it is hezbollah, which also

is under the iranian protectorate, and in principle it would be important for israel to strike iran with such effectiveness. which would force the iranians to abandon their support for these organizations, firstly, and secondly, would force them to abandon the idea of ​​their nuclear program, because if there is a third nuclear power in this coalition, it will be a completely different middle east, and those events that can begin in this near east not only from the point of view of relations between iran and israel, because it is precisely with regard to israel that iran may be afraid of the nuclear potential of israel itself, which has never been announced, but probably exists, but... if we talk about sunni countries with which iran now seems to have normalized relations through chinese mediation, i mean, first of all , saudi arabia, of course, here this is a different story, this is where the relationship can deteriorate again, this is where blackmail can start again, i absolutely allow that, so the consequences

can be that, and you are absolutely right that this is a different moment than sanction policy because i keep saying that the problem is not that the west has exhausted its sectional resource, but the problem... is that the west over the last 10-15 years has not seen the existence of a so-called alternative economy, primarily the economy of the people's republic of china, which is capable of supporting a country friendly to china . and minimize the effect of western sanctions. with its long existence in this regime, iran proved in principle the helplessness of the sanctions policy to correct the aggressive course of the country hostile to western values. russia is now proving it. of course, they can start acting now secondary sanctions. this is also an important point, on the one hand we have an alternative western economy of the global south, which will be the biggest sponsor of the offensive of dictatorial democracy in the coming decade. complicated let's immediately say the 21st century, but on the other hand , this economy of dictatorships depends on

cooperation with the economies of the west, i say that if vigorous measures against china, against india, by the way, if these countries were shown that cooperation with russia can lead to their own economic collapse to problems in the communist party of china and the haratiya janata party, maybe shizen pin narendra modi would stop playing the neutral mediator, ugh, this is a very cynical game. both politicians, and thought about the need to end cooperation with moscow. we have to take a short break, after which we will certainly continue to talk about this, and about the permission to strike on the territory of russia by the united states and great britain, and of course about the so -called peace initiatives, do not switch, literally for a few minutes.

saturday political club, direct ater, we we return, and now we will talk about the topic itself, which has probably become mainstream. the last few days, this is a possible permission to strike on the territory of russia,

american and british missiles. such a whole parade was reported in the western press, including from official officials, it was expected that such permission would be granted at the time when the secretary of state of the united states of america, anthony blinken, was in ukraine, this is unknown. happened, later, everyone thought, thought that it would happen under the time of the meeting between the president of the united states of america and the prime minister of great britain, but again this did not happen. on the other hand, we see statements, official statements, in particular, again mr. kirby, he stated that the us has not yet changed its policy regarding strikes deep into russian territory. however, there are other reports, for example, the guardian writes that the usa and britain did allow long-range strikes on the territory

of russia, but did not announce it. and here is the most interesting thing, is it really so, because officially it is not said, officially we are we see that representatives of the white house say: "no, we have not changed our position." but unofficially, everything can be much more interesting. this is... a parade of expectations, a parade of information, information flows, a parade of statements, what does this indicate and whether, mr. vitaly, we should really expect such an opportunity in the coming days and weeks, and maybe we already have such an opportunity, well, we have to understand that this period of policy change, he is preparing very carefully, because if it was just an exchange of...courtesy, as you understand, there would not be a whole cycle of meetings, but i would like to remind you

that just this week united states secretary of state anthony blinken went to london, held talks there with the british foreign minister david lammy, david lammy and antony blinken arrived in kyiv together, held talks with volodymyr zelensky, after that joseph biden met with keir starmer in washington, and they both say that in ... an exchange of views will continue at the session of the un general assembly, that is , western leaders will also meet there. it is obvious that to discuss the strategic course regarding the further russian-ukrainian war. and volodymyr zelenskyi will be at this session, so it is obvious that he will meet with western leaders. so, this is just preparation for a new stage of the war, let's say, for the war in 2025. and obviously the war in 2025 has to be different from the war in 2024, like the war in say 2026, if it continues, which will probably be different from the war in

2025 seasonally, we're not even talking about a year now, but clearly, what is there... in november there december will be a lull in hostilities, preparation for a new round of hostilities in the spring, so how should events unfold? well , it is obvious that the issue of the ukrainian army's use of long-range weapons of the west should become a serious signal for russia. by the way, it's not even a question of whether this application can significantly change, as you understand, the very situation related to... the course of hostilities, because we don't know how many missiles we have, how many long-range missiles, which is currently in service with the ukrainian army, i will tell you about it it seems, the financial times wrote, will really be able to change the situation related to the russian military arsenal, or ukraine will always receive new batches of,

say, british missiles, or not only. this is one question, and it is a question of a signal for putin. the second question, of course, it speaks about, and this is also a signal for putin, even if they will not be seriously involved. these missiles, and even if there are single strikes, they may be single strikes on sensitive sites. well, another signal is that the event continues. this is an important point. and that's really putin, he said, look. "if these missiles will take off from ukraine, they will not be able to find the target without the help of american intelligence satellites, then we will consider that in this way the united states and its allies are directly involved in the war, and what did the event for biden, biden dismissed these putin's words, so, in principle, this also demonstrates that you can threaten us, but we

will not pay attention to it, because our position does not depend on yours threats, it's for not putin. the next point is that, in principle, the russians are convinced that their tactics, that they will force the west to fatigue and to hold consultations with them in order to end the war on their terms, it is not given, in any way, well, this is also a very important point from this signal whether there will be official authorization for the use of these missiles, as it should be, that keir starmer or someone in his government will come out. will say: have we decided that storm shadow missiles can be used by ukraine to strike targets on the territory of the russian federation? ukrainian citizens, as they say, they were expecting this all week, they were sitting near, they were sitting near the screens, when there were strikes by the stormshads in crimea, were there such statements? no. an important result. i think it won't be

announced anyway. i will even tell you otherwise, andrii, perhaps we will find out first. that russia used iranian ballistic missiles and some fragments of these missiles will be found during the shelling of some ukrainian city whose military object, after that the russians will find fragments of some western missile on their heads, and by the way, this is exactly what can keep the russians from the use of iranian missiles, because they will understand very well that maybe they are pulling the trigger that will change the situation really ... to a new level of escalation that they themselves do not want, but imagine that you are putin and you think that what i have to do is to keep the west from actually allowing these long-range missiles, obviously not to use the iranian ones, but if i sneeze, if i want another escalation, if i think i'm going to win this escalation, if the more escalation the better for me, well

then i will of course use iranian missiles in order to receive western missiles in return and maybe... in turn take a new, even more serious step to further escalate the situation, as drones are now flying into the territory of nato countries, maybe at some point, so that we must remember all the time that we are, in principle, approaching the third world war with you, this is a train that goes to this station, and we must realize that ukraine is only an intermediate and not the main peripheral station of this train is this one the missile will hit the territory of a nato member country, and this is where it will be important... the reaction of the west, whether it will decide that it is accidental or whether it will decide that it is a deliberate provocation, there is something to think about, here i will watch for value in the next months, and... maybe in the next weeks even, because this train of the third world war is moving so fast, so fast. and by the way, russia has announced the testing

of nuclear weapons for the first time in as many as 32 years, it seems, in the eastern part of its territory, that is, as far as i i understand, we will be talking about what will actually be used, conditionally speaking, for such allegedly educational and testing purposes. one of the tactical, i emphasize again, tactical political missiles by russia on its territory, of course, but this is again a moment that changes the situation, as you understand, because everyone said that russia would never be able to decide on the use of nuclear weapons without preliminary exercises, that conducting nuclear exercises, which is already the first step towards the use of nuclear weapons on any territory, including on territory of ukraine. so training is an element, the first step of intimidation is more global, yes, this is the first, well, no, it is not intimidation anymore, it is the first step of preparation, ugh,

ugh, intimidation is when you speak, and when you conduct tests, you prepare, this can somehow change or influence the united states of america, the nato bloc, regarding the supply of something to ukraine, well, not the fact that yes, i think they are ready for this, everyone perfectly understands that they they did not say that... the possibility of using nuclear weapons of the russian federation in a war against ukraine is on the table, it may just never happen, but you saw that recently the director of the central intelligence agency of the united states, bill berne, said that in 2022, his organization's experts assessed the possibility of russia using nuclear weapons in war with ukraine as very high. after that, the risk of this use is gone, why? because the front line froze. then. ukrainian troops advanced quite rapidly, then a large part of our territory was liberated, russian troops were forced to leave the north of ukraine,

russian troops were knocked out of the kharkiv region and kherson, and against this background, of course, it is simply necessary to understand this formula: the more we are the successes of the ukrainian troops on the russian-ukrainian front, the greater is the advantage of using by the russian federation of nuclear weapons in a war with ukraine, this is... clearly, again, this does not mean that it will be used, but the probability increases, at least this is how it is analyzed, here these are two of those, as you know, like on the scales old people, well, these are such hills, you put this hill and this hill rises, here you put the hill of ukrainian victory, the hill of nuclear weapons rises, the hill of ukrainian victory decreases, the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons decreases, this is a simple formula, and the front line froze. that is, the ukrainian troops have not seriously advanced anywhere, the russian troops have not advanced either, we have entered the situation of such a dead end pato, which may be partially

interrupted by what is happening in kursk oblast, but this is too small a controlled territory for it to be able to significantly change this very feeling that nothing is seriously moving anywhere, well, by analogy, there is actually the same movement in the pokrovsk direction, about a quad away. square kilometer, of course, yes, i absolutely agree, well, so now there is no such moment, but putin basically wants to be ready to use nuclear weapons in case the situation changes dramatically, or there is still one moment, if russia really decides , that without real intimidation it is impossible to achieve the goal, the goal, as we remember, of the destruction of ukrainian statehood, and this goal is not going anywhere, from russian plans, it will exist, in principle, we just have to understand that even if we are there at some point... . in the future we will achieve a truce with russia, the goal of destroying ukrainian statehood is not shared, our goal, as i have already said, is a long period of peace in which we will prepare for short

bloody wars, this is how we will live for the next decade, most likely, if we do not become members of nato, but, and i hope that we will become, so we will not live like this, but in this situation, in this situation, it is important that they can decide that they need to bang on the west, not on us. "if they decide that the west is directly participating in the war, they decide to decide, they don't need anything for this, and they can decide it at any time without any new missiles, but stormshed was in sevastopol, the west participates , everything that makes sevastopol different from, say, an attack on some object near bryansk or moscow is nothing, well, from their point of view, so they are not..." putin may get the idea that if he hits some military object, a western one, then the west understands that

it is necessary to stop playing. say , and that is why they are not just raising the level of tension, they are threatening the americans with a war on their territory, you saw how sergey lavrov said that the americans there hope that the war will start on the territory of europe and the world, no, we will fight on the territory of the united states, this is also such, i would say, a special accompaniment election campaign in the united states, it is also clear, you mentioned about... about this meeting of everyone with everyone, and about big meetings, about big trips to ukraine, great britain, the united states of america, and we talked about it as the context of what is being discussed about the possibility of using western, american, british weapons on the territory of russia. american , i think, no. well, in theory, in theory,

because we don't really know. everything will be solved, don't you think that there could be other topics of discussion here as well key international actors, key actors in relation to ukraine, what i am talking about, this parade of peace initiatives, and this is what zelenskyy talks about, almost at every, almost at every speech, scholz joined, who is very... actively began to develop the topic, and the topic is not exactly pro-ukrainian, we will probably talk about this separately, that is , do you not think that someone is discussing these peace initiatives, which, as you already said at the beginning of our program, in your opinion, are not carry, relatively speaking, no meaning yet load, you know why i think

there is no point in talking about any peace. it's like in the old joke about the russian empress, you know the joke, how makler suggests to a peasant from some russian province that he married his son to a russian empress, he says to him: why should i have an empress, she won't work, she'll lie there until 12 day in my bed, and i need to work here, i have cattle here, i have a farm here, i have, well, maklino says, but she is a rich woman, your son will live the emperor, well, and they argue for a long time, and in the end the man says: i am ready to marry my son to the russian empress, what should i do? he says: negotiate with the empress, convince the empress. so , i wonder when we hear all these proposals from olaf scholz, from donald trump, jd vance, even from volodymyr zelenskyi.

ugh. we have already convinced. the russian empress, well, that is, vladimir putin absolutely ignores any peace initiatives, real ones. even when he says that he is there ready to listen to some proposals of the countries of the global south, then the same conditions begin again: the withdrawal of troops from the donetsk, luhansk, kherson, and zaporizhzhia regions, demilitarization, denazification, the istanbul agreements, ugh, yes, yes, where there is a refusal, they sound very often. which were never initialed and signed, but there is, as you know, in the annex the demilitarization of ukraine and so on, and if he is not going to negotiate on any fair terms, why are we discussing the details of these peace plans, they say that ukraine will be forced to give your territories to russia, what does it mean to give, we control them, how can you give what you don't have? do we not

have it, or must we be persuaded to legally give up these territories? no, the west says it's impossible, from his point of view we should clearly state that these are our internationally recognized territories, even if we don't control them, well, why do they say that? i think that this is just a diplomatic game, it has nothing to do with reality, that is, everyone has their own reasons, well, what reasons does volodymyr have we understand zelenskyi, this is not even a reason to keep the ukrainian. society is in a state of waiting for some kind of peace, it seems to me that ukrainian society has already realized that we are only in the first years of this long war, and that there are no people among us who believe that the war there will end in the near future, but the allies, ukrainians should see , that we want peace and are ready for negotiations, western countries, countries of the global south, what should the ukrainian president do, he should, you know, we will not negotiate, we...