indicates that certain negotiations in various capitals, yes, i don't know, from india and beijing to berlin and brussels, that they are about something, so we understand that we again have a lot of questions for our partners and allies regarding the supply us heavy weapons and permits for their use on the territory of the aggressor state, that is, the process is certain, how do you see it and what are its main parameters? first of all, i would say that we have to be careful and cultured about clickable headlines, because constantly we, as we media consumers react that there is a headline and someone has declared that they are for peace, and every time it causes a violent reaction and a feeling that something is happening somewhere and it is being hidden from us. however, in reality, when leaders like olaf scholz or any other european leader or diplomat mentions peace,

they mean only one thing: everyone who is in one way or another related to the war that russia is waging against ukraine would like peace has come, that's obvious. however, at the same time , diplomacy cannot be built differently. we are not we can imagine that someone supports ukraine, militarily supports ukraine and at the same time did not declare that peace is necessary. no one on planet earth wants to be a bloodthirsty person who demands war, war, and only war. if we take the real negotiation processes, i would say, it seems to me, and many people see that, that nothing fundamentally new is happening compared to what happened a year ago. in this aspect of the negotiations, why? the first point is important, it is sometimes said that changes on the front make negotiations more difficult. side of ukraine in that

if it succeeds, or the negotiating side of the kremlin, when, for example, putin carries out a massive attack on infrastructure. but in reality , in my opinion , there is no strengthening of the negotiating position. why? because both formulas, both the putin formula and the ukrainian formula, do not involve any compromise. and here many are trying to formulate something between these two positions. we hear the voices of those who are just saying loudly about a ceasefire, and this is indeed recorded in the sino-brazilian memorandum. someone discusses that it is possible that ukraine will give up the territories, and then the road to peace will open. someone says: let's try to come to an agreement, maybe the kremlin will agree to take it away. the kremlin itself rhetorically refers to

the istanbul agreements, but this is only rhetoric today, because since the negotiations in istanbul from 2022, the situation has changed radically, everyone knows and understands this and has talked about it many times, the kremlin since the time of the istanbul agreements... and this fundamentally changes the situation. the kremlin wants and is operating before the istanbul negotiations, but at the same time, he constantly emphasizes that the issue of these four regions of ukraine must be firmly resolved in favor of russia, that is, he demands the withdrawal of ukrainian troops from these territories and their transfer under the jurisdiction of russia in general. all

this does not create any possible step for real negotiations. that is why the negotiations, as they were and are going along some tracks, exchanged prisoners, and probably some negotiations were also held about the need to stop shelling the infrastructure. negotiations are underway together with the ministry of education, regarding nuclear plants and so on. look, the strange signals from the former russian defense minister shoigu, yes, who started talking about the fact that there would be some kind of understanding on the topic that they will not destroy the objects of the energy structure, i don't know, to believe shoigu is in principle, do not respect yourself, but he became more active, and we understand that, in principle, he does not... occupy some kind of

powerful position, that is, he is not a full-fledged player, but he went to this interview and went to see the flaws that in your opinion, this means, in general, the figure of shoiguv gave... us a lot a specific schedule, so at one time, by the way, he was present in istanbul. it must be understood that shoigu simply took the position of patrushev, that is, he became the secretary of the security council of the russian federation. and as the secretary of the security council, he gives this interview, in which he formulates all the same things that patrushev would say in his place. if i were to remain in this position, this is simply an expression of a consistent, aggressive and tough position. his position now has clearly deteriorated, that is understandable, but in this interview he does not appear as a personal figure, but as the head of the security council, which

formulates exactly what putin advocates, it must be taken into account, yes, that is , we have dealt with the so-called fiction, yes, the parameters. the new phase of the war, so the kurdish operation is extremely successful in military terms, i do not know in what way our military command will develop it, but the kremlin did not wait, and the kremlin does not know how to sell it to the russian population, well, it says about some ephemeral bandits there , that is, it is not a formula and it is not an answer, and in principle it even caused a certain reaction in the most fashionable public, warriors and so on and so on. so, kursk is a new reality, and you very rightly pointed out about the great drone war, it started to fly, i imagine moscow, the way the air defense system just works there during one or another massive visit of ukrainian drones, so we

understand, in principle, the kremlin did not think that two sides could play such a game, that is, in ukraine we know what to expect from the kremlin, and russia thought that the war was somewhere out there, a war. in ukraine and so on, there is a war came inside russia, and not even just as balls with corpses, not just loads of 200, not just memes about kalina, the car is like that, yes, but concretely, and here is a new phase of the war, as you see it, yes, that's how i look at it there is no doubt about this, which we see from the beginning of august onwards, if we look at the logic of this war and yes, then here we see a new stage. i will not undertake to evaluate the military result, now the offensive in the kursk region and the military side of the drone war. however, it can be said for sure that politically, it turned out to be very a significant event that changes the narrative of war. why?

first, because the offensive on kursk showed such an important side, because before that there was an idea that putin was waging a territorial war. the issue revolves around the 1991 borders. now the situation has changed somewhat, obviously, because putin was the only one who blurred the borders of 1991, and with impunity. he eroded them, annexing part of ukraine to himself. now putin has been shown that if you do not recognize the borders of 1991, you will lose a piece of your border. because absolutely everyone is political headquarters all over the world, looking at what is happening, thought, yes, for a second,

if its own territory is so insignificant for the kremlin, then it is not insignificant anywhere, on any other part of the border. for example, let's imagine. that tomorrow there will be an attack on vladivostok, let's say a drone attack on the port in vladivostok, which means that the border of the russian federation is being blurred there, and the kremlin cannot respond , this is a very significant situation in the political assessment, but this is far from everything, because as soon as a new stage of the war, respectively a long-standing question arose as to whether it is possible to give permission to ukraine by american politicians. in addition , it is clear that president zelenskyi and, together with him

, commander-in-chief sirskyi, took a risky step by going on the offensive against the kursk region, but he justified himself, because the issue of military the support of ukraine did not flinch at this. we see, they do not refuse, this is a fundamental point. and the third political moment, here it is very important in the following, which very clearly, the kursk operation and the new stage of the drone war show how russian the population is atomized, does not understand what is happening, does not want to understand it, whatever you want to call it, but it is about what we see. helplessness of both the population and the authorities. the only thing we see is that vladimir putin

only wants to be flooded with money. pay money, money, money and nothing else. everything , like military operations, is conducted on a commercial basis. the kremlin is only for money. you fight, we pay. the same is the case with the population. that's how you lose yours. houses, yes, everything was bombed, but nothing terrible, here's 100,000 rubles, and then live somehow. this is the logic. that's the logic. okay, and putin's war plan? we understand that it was not for nothing that they in the kremlin called an open full-scale war against ukraine a war, they came up with this neologism svo, so they were afraid of the term war, because i think in russia, not only in russia, it is very well understood. at the grassroots level, which means war, respectively, the war has come, there is more talk about the war, but

still putin is trying to mobilize the russians, but he does not dare to full-scale mobilization, because there are purely technological moments, not because putin, so to speak, nurtures one or another illusions, so he simply understands that there is a lack of an average command staff and a trained average. the command staff that we eliminated during the war in the east of our country and in the north, that is, those people were physically eliminated by our fighters during the battles, well , accordingly, he does not go to mobilization, perhaps they expect it from him, perhaps he is afraid, realizing that the system may not withstand such and such an overload preparation, and in general, if we talk about your feeling, as the krem elites see the further unfolding of events, that is... they are going to destroy our energy in order to do something, to offer some kind of offer,

wait for what will happen, i don't know, agreement from the ukrainian side, no one like that, of course, will not give such an agreement, but the kremlin must also have some kind of plan. it seems to me that now we are witnessing the exhaustion of the kremlin's old plan and its lack of a new plan, because the old plan consisted of surovikin's plan, that is... missile attacks and heavy positional fighting on the front without major advances. it should be noted that both, to a certain extent, since it has been going on for a long time, has exhausted itself for the kremlin, although everything continues. the implementation of surovikin's plan, as well as gerasimov's plan regarding the front, continues. but now the moment, kursk itself and the intensification of the drone war show this clearly enough. that all this is over, that is, these plans

no longer work, but it is impossible to say that we know putin's new plan, there are two scenarios, the first, knowing putin's temperament and character, he is still going to crawl, counting on us to live a long time, something will happen next, and then we'll see. and here is the fork. second scenario, he has to do something, but what? we will reason that no further nuclear blackmail of the kremlin will be effective, because it has been crying wolves, wolves for a long time, everyone has long been prepared for what this could mean. in addition, mobilization. i agree that the whole system will choke in the mobilization.

you can only do as they do, to collect 30-50 thousand per month on contracts, some of them have some experience, so they can be sent to some automobile parts or somewhere else, because they were once communications workers. is possible only under some radical plan, and the kremlin's behavior now shows that putin is showing very clearly that the goal is to go to the administration. it is clear that despite the summer offensive, this did not happen. both our american and british friends, perhaps not only them, will agree that ukraine has the right to use

long-range weapons on its own responsibility, in the territories it deems necessary, of course, in compliance with the geneva convention. that is, to hit military facilities, and accordingly we understand that the kremlin does not like it very much, because you can bring the entire air defense system to moscow, set up a garden ring, but there are still cities that are powerful centers and where it can also fly, and here is the answer to this, if we talk, for example, about the plans of trump, harris and so on, that is , to what extent... america will be ready to go to the end i would say that it is very important for all of us that the republican-democratic consensus regarding the war in ukraine is maintained, despite the controversy on other issues. and this consensus exists. in my opinion, it will remain, at least until march next

year, that is, until the new us president takes office. a white document should be taken seriously. the house has now turned over to congress. this is a description of the us strategy for war. this document sets out at the end of biden's term, all the goals and all the understanding that will pass if harris is president. maybe there will be some changes, but the basis will remain. this is the second important point. and the third essential point, i think, and it is correct, no matter what efforts the kremlin uses, that is, propaganda efforts, no matter how hard it tries. to destroy the ukrainian society and the societies of neighboring countries so that they change their positions, but the fundamental thing will be that no one will ever recognize the results of the war, if it is a territorial seizure as a result of aggression. it will be like this all the same, the kremlin will not get out of this in any way. the next leadership of russia or

some elite group of orf will be able to find a way out of the situation. i do not doubt this, because there are no historical situations from which there is no way out. and therefore to find a way out of the situation so that the world community can say that we have ended the war, but there is no recognition of the territorial seizure as a result of unprovoked aggression, just like that. it is absolutely clear that the kremlin does not understand this and is not moving, not even going to. years, with the fact that the global alliance of support in any case in 2025, 26 or 2027 of ukraine, despite the change of governments in parliaments in of these countries, will remain on this line

of assessment. this is unacceptable as it has been since 2014. especially after 2022. doubles and triples are unacceptable. it seems to me that there is such a picture here, there will be no other. well, on the other hand, we will also be aware of what the kremlin is learning. the kremlin is learning from its own mistakes. the kremlin is gradually rebuilding what is called its own economy, it's not just china, it's india, that's what it's called. collective brics and we do not know who will join it and how much it is all seriously, that is, as far as we understand, in principle, the kremlin is not afraid of a protracted war, of great intensity, of course, they are not ready for the fact that military airfields of strategic purpose somewhere in the murmansk region or somewhere beyond the urals will start to be built, they were not ready for that ready, they don't know,

they don't have an answer, it's a huge reputational loss, that is, the kremlin loses prestige in front of their... so-called allies, i think even in north korea they can occasionally laugh at russian allies in quotes, but , i.e protracted history is also a time for the kremlin to rethink, retrain a hundred and two thousand of its people, and so on, to shift one or another of the powers of the economic plan to the collective south or east, well, in a word , china and india. what do you think, are these the countries that the kremlin is hoping for, are they interested in it, is it possible that xijin ping is already sitting in beijing with a watch and saying, yes, listen, well, it's time to finish this. you have three more months to save your face and get out, get out of the war maybe some other dates are announced or some

terms, is everyone satisfied with this big rearrangement of continental security, well , we understand what it is accompanied by, a big, destructive, bloody war, yes, this is an important question, it is an important question, first of all, you are right , i... agree, there should not be any triumphant mood, that the kremlin is running out and so on, the resource capabilities of the russian federation in this war are preserved, it is obvious, but i want to emphasize one important thing: in 2022, when sanctions were introduced, everyone said that sanctions work, they do, the kremlin itself admitted it. then in 2023 there was an adaptation, as they said, of the russian economy. to the sanctions policy, and everyone said: you see, the sanctions do not work. now we're entering the fall of 2024, when, after

the december decision by the us on secondary sanctions, it's quite clear that the sanctions have started working again, and they're working in a big way, because the financial system is taking a big, big hit. allies really clearly show that they will not bypass bank sanctions and go to war. to russian companies who want trade in what is not allowed, they will not be encouraged, this applies to turkey, and china, and the countries of central asia, which are now taking these measures. thus, it is now clear that putin did not manage to get india or china to come to some kind of compromise through his diplomacy. this is quite important. it is clearly visible that the central bank of russia is now...

and the central bank rate has stopped influencing the situation, and everyone there understands this, among the economic authorities. in other words, not everything is mechanistic, this is how the economy reacts every time. plus, they are going right now the message that sanctions against the merchant fleet are still to come. that is, it is not enough that the kremlin has big problems with airplanes as a result of all the aggression, with civilian airplanes, and with civilian transportation. railways, because the traffic cannot be broken through to china, because it is huge. now, what previously seemed impossible, sanctions against

the merchant fleet have been announced. and it will continue to develop. we have no doubt that if the kremlin does not move in the direction of de-escalation, then sanctions not only on britain and the us will become more and more painful. so i would say that one should look without great optimism and at the same time not think that russia's resources are inexhaustible, of course it is not, and one cannot think that russia has some kind of unlimited human resources, because qualified military really, as you are right they said, it's not enough, and they can't be prepared quickly, and this applies to the navy, and aviation, and so on, and so on, and... today also means of communication, that is, everything that determines war. war today is very little defined, we see it as infantry, not trained infantry.

today, the entire image of war that is being demonstrated is completely different, so the kremlin is not doing well here. i thank you , oleksandr, for this extremely interesting and informative conversation on the air of the tv channel, i want to remind our tv viewers what is working for them now. political analyst, political scientist who is in prague. the time of our program has run out, stay with the espresso tv channel, my colleagues will inform you about all the most important things that are happening both in ukraine and in the world. watch yourself and your loved ones, do not ignore the air alarm signals, with god and see you on the air. in march, there are 15% discounts on magnesium b6 anti-stress in pharmacies plantain bam and savings, the women's book on the espresso channel is the most

relevant. topics of the week nato member countries have huge arsenals, and russia is already on the verge of exhausting its resources. topics that resonate in our society. this is the question of trump's victory, what is it? analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. what else can the russians do, are they able to use, let's say, the resources of the allied with them of lukashenka's army? vitaly bortnikov and guests of the project read the entire condemnation. accept my song, i thank it. it was difficult, but i was just interested, but it was absolutely not, help to understand the present and predict the future, offered to the united states, concluded a bilateral security agreement with us. project for those who care and think politklub every sunday at 20:00 at espresso. get closer to victory with tssoa asbu, join one of the best

special forces in the country. we are expanding and we announce recruitment, we invite civilian specialists from various fields, experienced commanders will ensure your high-quality training and education. fill out the questionnaire and choose the direction where you can be most effective. we are waiting for you in the team of tssoa asbu. let's write together. the history of victory. details on the official pages of the sbu. we are servicemen of the griga separate unit, named after volodymyr griga, of the unmanned aviation complexes of the 76th separate battalion of the 102nd separate brigade. on the zaporizhzhia direction, it happens every day combat clashes due to constant enemy assaults. this does not avoid the gulyaipil

direction, which our battalion. almost two years already. right now we need three times as many modifiers and fire damage from the sky. therefore, we are appealing to everyone who cares to collect funds for 20 digii mavic classic drones and 10 mavic 3t. yes, the amount is not small, but the life of your siblings and relatives is much more expensive. we really hope for your support. donate and share. let's not let the occupier take a step further together and let's speed up the victory together. glory to ukraine.