to talk about the weather for this weekend, as well as distinguished studio guests. mustafa dzhemilov, the leader of the crimean tatar people, is in touch with us, mr. mustafa, i congratulate you. good day events of the day in two hours. vasyl zima's big broadcast, a project for smart and caring people. espresso in the evening. every week , the saturday political club helps to understand the processes taking place in ukraine and the world. vitaly portnikov, khrystyna yatskiv, andriy smoliy and invites. experts based on facts give their assessment and forecast of the development of events, you want to understand how our today will affect the our tomorrow, see saturday politics club, every saturday on espresso. saturday political club, live broadcast, main events of ukraine. and the world,

we sum up, analyze, discuss and discuss, vitaly portnikov, andriy smoli, congratulations, friends, we start, we start traditionally with mr. vitaly on the security block, on what concerns the security of our country, the war, the war in our country, well , actually everything, everything, everything around this, so, mr. vitaly, last week we saw that russia did form this shock fist, at least there, some say 40 thousand, some say 60 thousand, and during the last few days it is trying to counterattack, it is trying to allegedly carry out its counteroffensive on the territory of those areas, those territories of the kurdish region, which are now controlled by the defense forces of ukraine. in this context,

in your opinion, in the coming weeks and months, russia will try to throw as many forces as possible here, and will they still succeed, they conditionally say knock out the ukrainian forces, and most importantly, in this case, do we need hold on to these territories as much as possible? well, i think that this is a question for the military command, a question of those resources that are needed in order to... defend our positions on the territory of the kurdish region, but we must remember that these are now defensive battles, well, what when the ukrainian the troops advanced on this territory, they actually did not meet any resistance, and the exchanges that we are now observing, today was a big exchange, i want to congratulate all the relatives, those who returned from captivity with this, it is connected with by the fact that russia, as you can see, wants to release many conscripts, that for putin, the fact that the conscripts... who are in captivity is

a moment of social tension that he needs to extinguish, so volodymyr zelenskyi was definitely right when he said that this is an accumulation of self-incriminating material, because you know, when a contract worker is captured, well, he signed a contract, and when a conscript is captured, his parents can of course ask questions to the authorities, how did it turn out that you did not ensure the safety of my child, who was not supposed to take part in hostilities at all, this was the case during both chechen wars. and that's why it really works in russia, but now that quite a long time has passed, as you remember, from the moment when the offensive on the territory of the kurt region began, these are already fortified areas, and that the russians will even try to liberate them from the ukrainian troops, these are huge losses, so let's see how many troops they will accumulate there, whether they will have to withdraw these troops from other directions. because they

also have a difficult task, which is what you are talking about ukrainian tasks, there are also russian tasks, to continue the offensive on the territory of donetsk region and , together with this, to try to liberate kurshchyna, to which, by october 1, supposedly, well, this is an assignment and, well, he has a lot, in general , frankly, i could never to understand why he likes exact dates so much, just as an accountant, he is not an accountant, but you come to the accounting department, they tell you, you need to submit this report, this report, this one, and it is clear, it is professional. the approach is this, here what, you are not like the commander-in-chief, you have to put in front troops a task that they have to perform not by some holiday or the end of the quarter, but in accordance with the amount of resources involved, and all the time they fall into a rather strange situation when they have such an assignment and cannot fulfill it, well, it can be so to be even now, from a political or even a geopolitical point of view. or the fact that

the kurdish operation was actually created, carried out, involved in order to strengthen ukraine's geopolitical position vis-à-vis the occupying state. but from the political point of view, given the fact that now a counterattack is taking place, taking into account what you and i found out, the ukrainians, in fact, in the territory of the kursk region today are mostly on the defensive, from this political point of view, do we need to continue to get these areas as much as possible, or still, conditionally speaking , here it would be worthwhile to think over time, again about the withdrawal of our troops. after all, it depends on how much we manage to hold the territory, if we can hold it, why should we get out of there, the question arises, so we can be from where to get out, let's say, there kherson, which was liberated by ukrainian troops, is constantly under fire from much

more than the kurt region, constantly flies there, constantly they want to turn this territory into a desert, well, we could have left, if you thought about the fact that it is dangerous there, well and now it will also be dangerous in the kursk region, look at the whole... this situation not as a situation there on the sovereign territory of russia or on the sovereign territory of ukraine, look at it as a front line, if we can hold some areas on the front line, we will we hold if it turns out that their retention leads to significant technical and human losses, then of course we don't get them, it's a simple formula. we see that russia still continues to advance in the direction of donetsk region, almost every day. according to the deep state maps, that is, after all, the russians did not reject their idea of ​​​​further advance, despite the kurdish operation, we see that , after all, they do not withdraw most of the troops from this direction, that is, putin, mr. vitaly,

geopolitically decided to press here further, and even sacrificing, perhaps for a certain time , certain... populated areas of the kurdish region to continue the offensive in donbas, it seems to me that this is not geopolitics, this is an ordinary war. well, why should it be assumed that if we capture some settlements in the kursk region, it will stop the russian offensive on donetsk region, i don't understand, well, they still look at this entire territory as a theater of hostilities. if you imagine that we actually introduced troops on the territory of the kursk region completely unexpectedly for them. and they before that, after that they stopped the offensive in the donetsk region, which means they fell into a real trap, both military and political, that they stopped the offensive, withdrew forces from there, this means that we can still advance there, well , if you think that they are not like that now

politically, namely, military-technically , they lose from the presence of our troops on the territory of the kurt region, well, we understand that we can have control over a rather limited part of this territory, the russian troops during this time certainly... did not give us the opportunity to strengthen ourselves, but they themselves fortified themselves on strategic borders, near korchatov near the kursk nuclear power plant and near the regional center itself, well, everything else may be in the danger zone for a certain time, but of course in this situation they are ready to demonstrate that they are ready, as you understand, to... give up from the offensive in the kurt region, in the donetsk region, because they need to liberate kurt region, well, this means admitting that our plan has completely failed in all directions, this is not the luxury that putin can afford, you see, they have long gathered troops from different directions so as not

to touch donetsk region, from the depths of russia, they created, glued together a new group, now the new group will try to achieve something there in this territory, and most likely they will strengthen it even more. groups, well , they will be again, but you need to understand how much strength they have, again , the desire to strengthen and the possibility are not the same thing during the war, well, this is the same as putin's desire on october 1, yes, october 1 kyiv in three days, we all know how to get some kind of result, and by the way, by october 1, the occupiers are supposed to capture pokrovsk as well, allegedly and according to their reports, that’s why they say here... these dates in 99% of cases, as they say, never coincided, and fortunately for us, they did not did not happen another important event that happened this week is the actual

supply by iran of ballistic missiles to russia, something that has been talked about for a long time, and something that, so to speak, iran, something that iran ... did not dare to do for at least a period of time, he did it, well, don't say, because again, we we don't have exact information, we know this message from western sources, we haven't seen a single e chino missile yet. but at least the official representatives of the white house, that is , we are not just referring to the wall street journal or the times, we are referring specifically to the white house, to sullivan, yes, to kirby, who are saying that yes, allegedly these missiles on september 4, they were delivered to the territory of russia, well, the next step is a technical process, as they say, after all, we understand that this is not the case. one day we realize that the russian military on the territory of iran

learned that during the summer of the current year 2024, there were no longer just any consultations, there was direct preparation for the delivery of these ballistic missiles, that is , the decision was made much earlier, nevertheless, if we talk about it, how here is the delivery of these missiles and their... more likely than not , the future use, i think it is, again, according to the white house, a matter of several weeks. how much can this change the schedule, relatively speaking, of supporting ukraine? well and the second question, iran still decided to take this step, can it continue to deliver ballistic missiles, let’s say, already with a longer range, with an average range of 400, 500 , 600 km, by the way, the american press also assumes this and talks about the fact that such

a possibility is currently being considered, well, first of all, i believe that aran can afford anything , that he is not risking anything, that is, everything that he is risking can also happen in connection with short-range missiles , nothing happens from changing the level of missiles, the second, well it is obvious that a certain group of allies has formed in the world. which works together to destabilize the west, and not only in the post-soviet space, but also in the middle east, because iran plays the main violin in the middle east for destabilization, and russia helps it, and russia plays the main violin in the post-soviet space, in the war with ukraine, and iran is helping it here, too, by the way, not everywhere, but maybe you noticed that when russia raised this topic again, the trans... of the border corridor between azerbaijan and nakhchivan, its autonomy, which is separated

from the main part of azerbaijan to armenia, and for this corridor to be controlled by the fsb of russia, nobody in tehran liked this, that is, there are many interests that they do not have in common, but when there are common interests, anti-american, they are happy to use these interests, it is such a very important moment for me, and this is it... the result of the war, there are three countries that are ready to exchange weapons, because it is obvious that both russia is helping iran and helping north korea, for the sake of a joint confrontation with the west, and there is one more an interesting thing, two of these countries are russia and iran already and north korea already have nuclear weapons, and iran is close to obtaining them, literally in a short time, if they do not interfere with it, that is, it is also a nuclear weapon. that is, it does not foresee any actions that could lead

to the external liquidation of the regimes established in these countries, this is a serious test for the west, it is a more global story than just the war in yugoslavia or the war in syria. so, this is one point. another point is very important in this situation, it is related of course with the fact that iran. er absolutely does not pay attention to any western remarks, he even laughs, but the minister of foreign affairs of iran said: listen, we have absolutely no intention of supplying russia with missiles, and in general, we have been under western sanctions for decades, we do not have advanced technologies, and you brag that we are supplying russia with missiles, which we cannot have in such a sanctions situation, well, this is a complete delusion, we saw the shelling of israel for real. iranian missiles, high range, and the debris that was found in many countries

near israel is no secret, and when the iranians say that we do not have such weapons at all, this is of course mockery, well, the iranians also declared that they did not supply anything, moreover, iran summoned the ambassadors of some of the states of the civilized world and declared that this was an absolute lie, and no one supplied russia with any missiles, however... that this is some disinformation policy of the united states of america, well, they did exactly the same with drones from shaheds, that's how they said that they are not them supplied, they supplied some batch, but before the war, ugh. that is, they absolutely calmly believe that in relations with this hostile world, frankly lying is the best tactic, and no one has allowed themselves to do this before, so when they tell me, look, putin made such a statement, putin made such a statement, well read the statement of the foreign minister of iran, who says that there are no missiles, and then you will see how these missiles will be fired at ukraine, but what does it really

change, strangely enough, it is to some extent frees the hands of our allies, well, what do they say: listen, if you entered into a direct confrontation with us, if you use not only your equipment for the war in ukraine, but also equipment related to iranian production, then we can allow ukraine more than we have allowed until now, because rarange does not ask you how far you send your missiles, the one you want. and here with ukraine, if we agree with the point of view that the weapons supplied to ukraine are already ukrainian weapons, then i think that this idea, which we heard for the first time after , by the way, the offensive of the armed forces of ukraine in the kursk region began, this idea can be extended to missiles, and this is an important point

that by and large iran supplies missiles to russia. well, first of all, it proved that russia is not going to end any war, i don’t understand why there are still any illusions about a quick end to this war, and secondly, the fact that the allies can act like russia’s allies, they everything is fine and the allies are fine, i don't know if there will be an announcement it is somewhat real that we will be able to use western missiles to attack the sovereign territory of russia, but this is a direct consequence of these iranian actions, as an excuse. on the one hand, and as a demonstration of the unwillingness of the russian federation to end the war, on the other hand. if we are talking in the context of the security, the security situation, including north korea, as far as i understand, also transferred a new batch of missiles to russia, well, again, the western world is saying that they

will apply sanctions to iran, sanctions to russia, we understand that such... sanctions, they are unlikely to be effective, so that, in relation to russia, perhaps, more effective than to iran, in this case, what could be the consequences for iran, or will there be none at all? i think that a real consequence of iran's participation in destabilizing actions towards ukraine may be that the united states will turn a blind eye to certain israeli actions against iran, ie. it is obvious that there are many people in the israeli government whose hands are literally itching to destroy some of iran's nuclear reactors, to prevent iran from continuing its nuclear program, but the americans and the europeans are always grabbing their hands and saying don't do it, because we already know it, there will be an escalation, we cannot allow such an escalation, we will somehow come to an agreement with them, we

will force them to stop enriching iran or not to start it, we will talk with them there on... strict mukhtans and the like, well , as you can see, iran, like the russian federation, absolutely does not listen to this, how they will talk to him. so, in this regard, this can ease israel's position. israel is interested in this from its side, because it is clear that iran was and remains the main sponsor of these proxy groups that have been destabilizing the life of israeli society not only since october 7 last year, but since october 7 as well. workshop we understand that it is under a complete iranian protectorate, so i would say, and this is hezbollah, which is also under the iranian protectorate, and in principle it would be important for israel to strike iran with such effectiveness that it would force the iranians to abandon support of these organizations, firstly, and secondly,

would force them to abandon the idea of ​​their nuclear program, because if there is still a third nuclear power in this coalition. then it will be a completely different middle east, and the events that may begin in this middle east not only from the point of view of iran -israel relations, because precisely in relation to israel, iran may fear the nuclear potential of israel itself, never declared, but probably existing, but if we talk about sunni countries, with which now iran has normalized relations, as if through chinese mediation, i mean first for all of saudi arabia, of course, this is a different story, this is where relations with... can deteriorate again, this is where blackmail can start again, i absolutely allow it, so the consequences can be like this, you are absolutely right to say that it is another moment than the sanctions policy, because i keep saying that... the problem is not that the west has exhausted its sectional resource, but the problem is that the west during the last 10-15 years has not seen the existence of the so-called alternative

economy , primarily the chinese economy a people's republic that is able to support china-friendly countries and minimize the effect of western sanctions. with its long existence in this regime, iran proved in principle the helplessness of the sanctions policy to correct the aggressive course in... towards the country's western values, russia is now proving it, of course, now secondary sanctions can start to take effect, this is also an important point, on the one hand we we have an alternative western economy of the global south, which will be the largest sponsor of the offensive dictatorial democracy in the coming decades, complex military decade, let's immediately say the 21st century, but on the other hand, this economy of dictatorships depends on cooperation with the economies of the west, i say that if vigorous measures against china, against india, by the way, if this... show the countries that cooperation with russia may lead to their own economic collapse, to problems in the communist party of china haratia jonath party, maybe

shizen pin narendra modi would stop playing neutral mediators, ugh, this is a very cynical game of both politicians, but think about the need to end cooperation with moscow. we have to take a short break, after which we will definitely continue to talk about this, and about... the permission to kill on the territory of russia by the usa and great britain, and of course about the so-called peace initiatives, don't switch, literally for a few minutes. we are servicemen of the griga separate unit, named after volodymyr griga, of the platoon of unmanned aviation complexes of the 76th separate battalion of the 102nd separate brigade. in the zaporozhye direction. every day there are military clashes due to constant assault actions of the enemy, this does not avoid the gulyaipil direction, which our battalion has been defending for almost two years. right now we need three times as many modifiers

and fire damage from the sky. therefore , we are appealing to everyone who cares to collect funds for 20 dji mavic classic drones and 10 3t mavics. yes, the amount is not small, but the life of your siblings and relatives is much more expensive. we really hope for your support. tone and distribution. let's go together. don't let the occupier take a step further and let's speed up the victory together, glory to ukraine, glory to the heroes, saturday's political club, direct ater, we return, and now we will talk about the topic itself, which apparently became the mainstream of discussions. the last few days, this is a possible permission to strike on the territory of russia, american and british missiles. such a whole parade

of reports in the western press, including from official officials, took place. it was expected that such permission would be granted at the time when united states secretary of state anthony blinken was in ukraine, but it did not happen later. everyone thought, wondered what it was will take place during the meeting between the president of the united states of america and the prime minister of great britain, but again it did not happen. on the other hand, we see statements, official statements, in particular, again mr. kirby, he stated that the us has not yet changed its policy regarding strikes deep into russian territory, but there are other reports, for example, zagardi. writes that the usa and britain still allowed long-range strikes on the territory of russia, but did not announce it, and

here is the most interesting thing, is this really so, so that it is not officially said, officially we see that the representatives of the white house say no, we have not changed our position, but unofficially everything can be much more interesting, here is this parade... of expectations, a parade of information, information flows, a parade of statements, about what does this indicate, and whether, mr. vitaly, we should really expect such an opportunity in the coming days and weeks, and perhaps we already have such an opportunity, well, we must understand that this period of policy change is being prepared very carefully, because if it was simple exchange of courtesy. as you, as you understand, there would not be a whole cycle of meetings, which i will remind you that just this week the secretary of state of the united states, anthony blinkin, went to london, held talks there with the secretary

of foreign affairs of great britain. david lammy, david lammy and antony blinken arrived in kyiv together, held talks with volodymyr zelenskyi, after that joseph biden met with keir starmer in washington, and they both say that the exchange of views will continue at the session of the general the un assembly, that is , western leaders will also meet there, it is obvious that the strategic course regarding the further russian-ukrainian war will be discussed and... volodymyr zelenskyi will be at this session, so it is obvious that he will meet with western leaders, so this is just preparation to a new phase of the war, let's say the 2025 war, and obviously the 2025 war has to be different from the 2024 war, let's say the 2026 war, if it continues, which is likely to be different from the 2025 war seasonally , we are not even talking about now

year, but it is clear that in november and december there will be a lull in hostilities, preparations for a new round of hostilities in the spring, that means how events will unfold, well , it is obvious that the question of the use of long-range weapons by the ukrainian army of the west, it must become a serious signal for russia, by the way, it is not even a question of whether this application can significantly change, as you understand, the very situation related to... the course of hostilities, because we do not know how many missiles we have, how many long-range missiles that are now on the armament of the ukrainian army, i think the financial times wrote about it, will really be able to change the situation related to the russian military arsenal, or ukraine will always receive new batches of, say, british missiles, or not only

british missiles. this is one question, and it is a question of a signal for putin. the second question, of course, it says that, and this is also a signal for putin, even if these missiles are not seriously used, and even if there are single strikes, they may be single strikes on sensitive areas. here is another signal - this is that the west is moving on, this is an important point, and indeed putin, he said that look, if... these missiles will take off from ukraine, they will not be able to find the target without the help of american intelligence satellites, so we will consider , that in this way the united states and its allies are directly participating in the war, and what the west did for biden, biden brushed off these words of putin, which means, in principle, it also demonstrates, well, you can threaten us, but we will not address it attention, because our position does not depend on yours threats, this is an unpleasant thing for putin.

the next point is that, in principle , the russians are convinced that their tactics, that they will force the west to exhaustion and to hold consultations with them in order to end the war on their terms, it is not signaled in any way, well, this is also a very important point from this signal , will there be an official authorization for the use of these missiles, as it should be, that keir starmer or someone from his government will come out and say, we... have decided that stormshadow missiles can be used by ukraine to strike the territory of the russian federation. ukrainian citizens, as they say, expected this all week, sat by, sat by the screen , when there were strikes by stormtroopers in the crimea, were there such statements? no. an important result. i think it won't be announced anyway. i will even tell you something else, andrii, maybe first we will find out that... russia

used iranian ballistic missiles and some fragments of these missiles will be found during the shelling of some ukrainian city or its military facility, after that the russians will find the heads of the debris of some western rocket, and by the way, it can do just that to prevent the russians from using iranian missiles, because they will understand very well that they may be hitting the hook that will change the situation for a really new one. equal to escalation, which they themselves do not want, but imagine that you are putin and you think that what should i do to prevent the west from actually allowing the use of these long-range missiles, well, obviously not to use iranian ones, but if i sneeze, if i want a new escalation, if i think i'm going to win this escalation, if the more escalation the better for me, well then of course i will use iranian missiles to get…