in the environment of politicians, democrats , the same bernisander treats this situation, we are watching, and we do not understand what to do, we are in such a state of uncertainty, when trump tells them that you will vote, of course he again they are reminded of anti-semitism, because for any jew, and this is what the heads of jewish organizations in america said by the way, there is anti-semitism in such a statement, you single us out and... while you have a huge number of voters non-jews on whom you depend, the jews will not bring you victory, because there are 2% of them, why do you single us out, and because if i do not win, then israel will perish, here again the slippery slope is very expensive, you understand, many american jews support the state of israel, this is such a historic pact between the foundations of one of the headlines of the state of israel by david gurion.

and the american leadership of the american jewish congress, that we do not support the departure of american jews to israel, you support israel politically, and we exist in symbiosis, but this is a pact at the level of political institutions. there are a lot of jews in america the population that believes that it is in america that jews should live, that they are best accepted here, that it is the safest here, for sure it is safer in america with israel, we will not argue, yes. and these people, in principle , are not voting for israel to exist or not to exist, but for the american jewish community to feel equal and safe in the states, this is the first question, for many religious jews, the existence of israel there is not at all part of their life, they are voters, but they generally believe that there there should be no israel, well, jews are different, well, among people of the same origin, there are many different ones. position, i always remind you that when

there was a ukrainian revolution, some jewish parties were neutral, others were hostile to it, and others supported it, and ministers were part of the governments of petliura and vennychenko because they were supporters of this revolution, it was all jewish politicians who, moreover, could gather in the same synagogue were not malebins, but their political views were diametrically opposed, so in general a normal nation there is, so ukrainians exist, so there are in the united states... americans themselves, so this is a very strange statement for me, as a jew, because i do not want to be responsible for the defeat or victory of donald trump, even from the point of view of myself of ethnic origin, so i imagine what would have happened if i still had an american passport, the fact that he, so, let's say this, he really has a chance, there were, there were, i think, there were chances of a part of the voters of the jewish origin to pull your side. we must understand that the electorate,

donald trump's electorate is much more people than jews. these are christians, evangelicals, their millions of people, much more than the jews in the states, there are up to 6 million jews in the states, there are tens of millions of these people, and they support israel, because they believe that the very existence of israel is evidence that soon there will be salvation, for them the fact of the existence of israel is for their religious worldview. confirmation of the fact that they are absolutely faithfully following their christian path, these are the people, this is the traditional electorate of the republican party, johnson, and the face of such an electorate, the speaker of the house of representatives, it is not clear why he would need jews in such a situation, why would he say anything about jews, because it could cause misunderstanding of these christians, evangelicals, who treat jews just fine, by the way well, his son-in-law eh... his

daughter's husband is also that of ivanka trump, he is also a jew, jared kushner, well yes, of course, and ivanka herself accepted judaism, from her point of view and they, they are jews, let's say that, right but they can't tell you whether don't they somehow affect his position on such issues, you know, the strength and weakness of donald trump is that he is a living person. well, that is, by the way, the strength and weakness of volodymyr zelenskyi, a politician cannot afford, if he wants to deal with this story, to be a living person. trump is a living person, but he, relatively speaking, got mad at the rally, you know, ugh, and started to rant like this. i don't think that if he is put in jail like that, say to him, mr. president, what are you saying, he admits that he was feverish, but he is so... by character, by temperature, he is a person

from show business, not even from big business, but from show business, remember those programs of his, there he was like a fish in water, well, programs, advertising, yes. here he is, and by the way, it's a well-known fact that he had a meeting with the biggest sponsors of the republican party, they told him: listen, you have every chance to win, if you calm down , just calm down, grandpa, grandpa, just take it easy get out, i will be the president of all americans, tra-ta-ta, and to said, nothing will work for you, i will be what i am, i am this, by the way, it can only be respected that he is ready even to lose, but not to betray his own self , and, but this is the essence of donald trump, by the way, i think that a lot of people who vote for him, that's what they respect about him, i sometimes think, but here we are, here we are political technologists, and we started him something advise, something was given to him to calm down before the rally, and maybe this is not the trump that

the majority of those who support him vote for, maybe people like the live trump, not this maybe, maybe, but this is not the trump that can be guaranteed to win. he could have won if he had chosen such a middle ground, but maybe not, maybe he would lose here, find something, lose there, we don't know, or maybe he will win, well, we don't know, let's give it a try it remains to wait, a month and 10 days or how many or 15, today we mentioned another country, about armenia, yes, exactly... actually a year, these days, exactly a year ago in 2023, about 100 thousand armenian in fact left karabakh, yes, we have already mentioned

that now there, well, the situation in this region is quite such that it is empty, but including that, it is probably worth talking about armenia in general today, because... that those processes, happening in this country, they are quite interesting. armenia, which in principle, for many decades, if we talk about the times after the collapse of the soviet union, was a state that was completely dependent on russia, which was completely in russia's political orbit. ah, in principle, armenians were very often in the political orbit of russia, even the ukrainian armenians, but i, for example,... when i studied at the university, i also had fellow students, people who studied, we communicated with them, i knew their views, today these views are changing, today these views are becoming others, and in particular the prime minister, in armenia pashinyanyan, he actually demonstrates,

at least such a maneuver between, between, between, between, but he accuses the kremlin of preparing a coup, he says quite negative things about... csto, as far as i understand , armenia is, in principle, ready somewhere to leave the csto. we see an effort to at least move somewhere towards the european union, somewhere towards some european values, at least in terms of contacts with european partners, what is happening with armenia now, to what extent is this corridor of departure from russia and movement for it. to the european union, and how is this country living now after what happened a year ago with karabakh? well, you know, i 've been talking to my yurmen interlocutor since the 90s, and i still hold that point of view,

that karabakh was a real civilization trap for verumeni, well, not a state trap, not even a trap, but a civilization trap, because the very independence of this country was. dictated by the need to control karabakh, the very idea of ​​the movement for independence arose from karabakh, and not the other way around, because armenia was first led by the president of armenia after the restoration of independence, livon trpisensen, the head of the karabakh committee, and not by some other organization, that is the first moment, the second moment, that that this victory in the first karabakh war could not have happened without russia's support, and the armenians perfectly understood that they could not maintain this situation without the support of russia, well, that's clear. look at azerbaijan, look at armenia, and this means that armenia simply did not develop for several decades in a row, economically, politically, in any way, all development was for the sake of maintaining control over karabakh and those regions of azerbaijan that led this

territory, once, armenia essentially got rid of the normal democratic procedure for the change of power, came to power, and once again the political clans are completely oriented towards russia and who were from karabakh, and the second president in irmen, robert kocheryan, and the third president of the armenians, they are both from karabakh, that is, i am absolutely not going to divide armenians by region. we their residence and their countries of residence, this is armenia a country for armenians, but the clans are simply pro-russian, it doesn't even matter so much that they are from karabakh, how important is their orientation towards moscow, and on the other hand, if you think about karabakh and its maintenance, and you yourself are a former official from karabakh, robert kachaya was the president of the nagorno-karabakh republic, self-appointed, so of course you have to focus on moscow, on which you have to focus on yerevan, as you need to get this territory, and he continued to do so. moscow, not

baku, because moscow decided that if the armenians managed to get rid of their pro-russian leadership, restore democratic processes, begin to form relations with various countries of the world, then it should be as shown that such and such countries and such and such leadership will suffer a fiasco, therefore moscow looked at the first completely calmly. on the second karabakh war and at its end, this is a thing in general, the russians promised to keep the armenian population of karabakh safe, and when the azerbaijani troops decided to take under their control what was left of karabakh there, the russian servicemen did not participate at all, someone believed someone believed that this was happening because russia was mired in war in ukraine, and on the other hand, someone believed that such significant forces were not needed there, right? i mean, someone thought that it was basically an agreement with azerbaijan,

this is not even a negotiator, i would not belittle the political abilities of ilham aliyev, i think that ilham aliyev simply understood that putin will not be disturbed, uh, at this stage of history, is he mired in a war, or does he just want to get rid of pashinyana, so did not get rid of once after the second karabakh war, maybe this is the exit of karabakh? armenians will lead to a change of power, and this is not the end of the story, you see, they need to return irmania to the russian sphere of influence, because they need to return moldova, uh, because they they need to return georgia, that's everything for them , and the way they need it, by the way, to return azerbaijan, that's everything for them, the future territories, the future empire, and russia now has the opportunity to return it to armenia, well, at least we see it with moldova. . under a big question, because there is no unified pro-russian forces in moldova, they are de facto

fragmented, there, despite all that russian propaganda, sandu has sandu, it is leading, and its political force is leading, in azerbaijan it is a little different story, there authoritarian government, support of turkey, and well it is very difficult for me to talk about the fact that azerbaijan, that russia will be able to establish... georgia, well, georgia is actually already drifting there in such a russian measure, it is separate, but it is not known whether it will reach it, taking into account what is happening now there will be parliamentary elections, it is not known how they will end and what will happen afterwards, but armenia is actually one of the most litmus tests for russia, and in my opinion they have better chances there. than in other countries, i don't think so, or in your opinion, i think it's exactly the same with georgia, azerbaijan, ugh, for other

reasons simply, that is, the armenians, you see, they got out of karabakh, politically, but who told you that they got out mentally, they are still incredibly offended by russia for, ugh, not justified their hopes for security, that is, the armenian people did not have an idea in armenia. what are we to do, conditionally speaking, in order to cooperate with russia, we have to obey them, not a single armenian has such an idea, they think, well, we are allies there, we have to cooperate with each other, to negotiate, and what kind of power we will have there is our right, we russians choose our government, we choose ours, what about you, our government is ready for relations with russia, but russia betrayed us. actually supported from the point of view of armenia, azerbaijan in this story, and if russia

is here, it will behave here and in such a hybrid way, like in georgia, let's assume, of course, that no political force in armenia will say that the honorable citizens, we are for russia, but it can behave conditionally in a hybrid way and, as far as i understand, russia is there that makes a bet, no, why not, that’s exactly what they say there, no, not like in georgia, there exactly... there is a clear division into political forces, such as pashinyan’s party, which says that we we want, we want to preserve relations with russia, but we believe that we need to focus on the west, so you want to build relations. with france, the united states, think even about the european union, and the powers that say that we should be with russia, no, they say frankly, there is a struggle between these two concepts, that's actually what i'm talking about, this second concept, it can win, maybe because it is now perceived as treasonous, because russia itself has done everything to

prevent this concept from winning, it can win only through a coup d'état, and i tell you once again, put yourself in the place of an average armenian , can you imagine as an average armenian, did russia betray you or not? betrayed, betrayed, that's why, i'll say it again, at the beginning of our conversation about this, i mentioned my friends who believed in russia 15 years ago, 16 years ago, 10 years ago, i i remember these conversations, they believed in russia, now it is a completely different position, well, yes, if you are talking about people living in ukraine, who are simply for... and who is to blame for this, well who is pashinyan, of course, he too may be guilty in the eyes of these people, but they will not vote for the forces that will say, you know, putin is not guilty, we need to be with russia, everything will be fine, because they have already been with russia, and

it is nothing from their point of view vision was not offended, because they do not believe that the army revolution is against russia, as a result russia has behaved so vilely... in its conduct , it has led to them, that is, putin by and large has led himself into a trap in armenia, azerbaijan, and, by the way, in georgia, because let's see how the parliamentary elections in this country will end . by the way, we will talk about georgia, we will now have a short break at saturday's poltclub, after which we will return with another interesting topic: don't switch, see you soon. do ordinary things become unreal? heavy bags, not for my sore back. for back pain, try dolgit cream. longit pain reliever cream, reduces swelling and improves joint mobility. doolgit is the only yellow cream for joint and back pain. when buying a large package of 150 g, you save up to 50%.

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of the lukashenka army allied with them. vitaly portnikov and guest. help understand the present and predict the future offered the united states to conclude a bilateral security project with us for those who care and think politclub every sunday at 20:00 on espresso. sabbatical st. petersburg political club, the final part of our conversation, and we will talk about two more countries. countries about georgia, in which elections will be held next month, and about moldova, in which elections will similarly be held in a month.

these two countries, in fact, are now at a crossroads, if the situation in moldova is practically clear, according to all sociological polls, the party of maia sandu, the current president, is leading there, and maia sandu herself is leading, in particular, in the presidential elections, then accordingly. again, surveys, in fact, if we we are talking about georgia, the situation there is quite ambiguous, the georgian party, the georgian dream, is currently leading in terms of its positions, but the opposition also has quite powerful electoral points. mr. vitaly, here are two countries, in particular we mentioned georgia, which in recent years has increasingly moved towards the russian world, adopted absolutely ruskomirov laws... in essence , the government bows to russia, the government says that there we have to apologize to someone for the war, although we

perfectly understand who is the aggressor, and so on moldova, what, what, what are we talking about, what does the current situation in georgia indicate and is a change of power there possible, in principle? well, you know, i think one important thing to understand is how these countries are similar to each other, they both have. territorial problems, these are the first former soviet republics in which part of the territory was rejected back in the late 80s, early 90s, as we see, we are talking about the fact that russia is mired in a war with ukraine, but it intensive actions with continues to carry out to return these countries to its sphere of influence, and by the way, we have to understand a simple thing, if the georgian dream wins in the parliamentary elections in georgia, this... the issue may already be actually resolved, the same applies to moldova, has sandu, of course, as you rightly said, is obvious the winner of the presidential elections

of moldova, russian efforts are aimed only at maisando receiving a smaller number of votes, winning in the second round of the elections, that is, so that there is not such an unequivocal victory, but russia is using this presidential campaign as a preparation for the parliamentary elections the elections in moldova, which will take place in 2025 and... a completely different situation, because if maya sandu loses her majority in the parliament, and this may happen, then in fact her presidency will be reduced to the kind of presidency that is the presidency of solomi zhorobishvili in georgia , they have completely different views than those of the government, but no one is interested in this, the government calmly manages the state because these are parliamentary republics by and large, in which the president can have real influence only when he relies on the parliamentary majority, if in he does not have a parliamentary majority, he is about... just nobody, well, let's put it this way, well , a figure who exercises representative powers, that's all, therefore, for moscow, both

stakes here are very important, as we understand, and, to be honest, i am even surprised that the honorary chairman of the georgian dream party, bidzina ivanishvili, so openly threw off all masks. because if you remember, for years he and the people who surrounded him tried to convince that they are pro-european, pro-western politicians who differ from mykhailo saakashvili and his party only in that that they are not autocrats, mikhail saakashvili is an autocrat, but they are democrats, and they want a more cautious foreign policy, a more cautious domestic policy. now it must be said that mikheil saakashvili was right when he said that these people... are just wolves pretending to be lambs, and this is a huge problem for georgia, because now people understand absolutely clearly who they are

voting for, that is, before they voted against , i would say such an autocratic management style of mikheil saakashvili and his associates, for people who were themselves in this process, which were close to the previous georgian government, but turned out to be more democratic, now it is not discussed at all , in fact they offer a worldview choice. if you are for the georgian dream, you are for the restoration of relations with moscow. there are no diplomatic relations with russia in the country, abedin ivanishvili behaves as if he is a leader oriented towards moscow. this is a completely strange situation from a political point of view, which seems to me to leave georgian voters with no choice but to decide whether they want to be with whether they want moscow or not, we'll see, the same thing, by the way. in moldova, the candidate for the post of president of the republic of moldova from the socialist party is the former prosecutor general of the country alexander stoyanoglu, he says that good relations

with... the russian federation are necessary, that is, his election campaign is built on all these, i would say narratives that always distinguish politicians who lean towards the kremlin from politicians who do not lean towards the kremlin, and this is an application for the future presidential elections, parliamentary elections, sorry, and this is a moldova, but in moldova there is a significant part of the voters who take this position, that is, that is, even in contrast to georgia. in moldova, after all, there is such a full-fledged basic electorate, the war was much earlier, it ended a long time ago, moldova has been living in peace for several decades, and not just in peace, in the peace that is propagandistically ensured by moscow, because they did not just agree with teraspoli about peace, they actually did not interfere with the work of russian propaganda all these decades, i am not talking about the fact that there was a leader as president volodymyr voronin of the communists, then

ihor dadon was the leader of the socialists. there, all this time , russian propaganda had the maximum support on moldovan television, and well, except for the last few years, when they began to clamp down, well, it’s just that the war has already started so big, because it became clear how dangerous all this is, and until now, for ten years , and if you take into account the huge outflow of the population, poverty in the provinces, corruption, of course in russia there was a place to poke your nose in, and the same is true for georgia, corruption, poverty of the population, you know, remember, there was a popular book from the time of mikheil saakashvili, why did it work in georgia, it did, and now it is worth thinking about why it did not work in georgia, in fact, it turned out that georgian institutional stability is a mythology, in fact, we see that ukrainian institutional stability, although we did not succeed as well as in georgia, it is a much more serious weapon, because, as

andriy reveals, what is important is not the institutional stability of the post-soviet state, but the institutional stability of the post-soviet society. here it is something that such countries as georgia or moldova have never had. and the fact that they have now in moldova, by the way, now this institutional society is starting to take shape, and this is a great hope that the maisand presidency will not turn into a declarative presidency in 2025, while in georgia the society turned out to be. .. weak in order to limit the possibilities of the authorities, and only now, when these young people came out for protests, we saw that georgian society could be without political leaders again, at least its part, so start trying to influence the authorities, and i believe that this will of course be a decisive moment, it is very important for us, as you understand, that there was no turn towards moscow in georgia, it is even more important that there was no turn towards moscow in moldova, because from the point of

view of the national security interests of ukraine. the pro-russian government in moldova is for us a security disaster for the south of the country. i am not talking about the fact that these people are still dreaming in moscow, that they will break through the so-called corridor to transnistria, they want to reach to the south of ukraine, and then there will be no overflow to moldova itself. you understand that this is just a story about the liquidation of moldovan statehood by the russian invaders, that they are dreaming in such categories. and the story of the 2008 war in georgia showed that it's not just talk, it's that. what they are ready to do and what they are ready to do in georgia, in ukraine, they are ready to do in moldova as well, only fortunately moldova does not have a common border with them, i hope that our armed forces will do everything possible to never was. we will observe the situation in these two countries, october will show, and october will be one of the decisive ones, including for life, for the fate of people, citizens

of georgia, citizens of moldova, therefore... we will definitely return to this topic and will be at the end october to summarize where these states are moving. mr. vitaly, i thank you for the broadcast, vitaly portnikov, and we thank all the viewers who were with us during these two hours, hang in there, and definitely, everything will be ukraine. what is known about the ukrainian victory plan and whether will it work, will ukraine be left without a telegram and israel's historic operation, as in lebanon, not only pagers exploded. greetings to everyone who is with us, i am nalnyk and the team.