in washington between armenia and azerbaijan , and now we have some kind of document, and if there is a political will, it is possible to sign that document, but it is a difficult, difficult situation now, i think that it can happen. only after the elections that will be held in the united states of america, but this is a very important component of the overall south caucasus peace, because if this happens, then there will be an open, an open way for a three-way dispute, you can even longer than my question, watch as i speak with different experts, e.g. of energy, they tell me: you know,

it would be possible to improve the situation in the energy sector, but it cannot be made the same as in peacetime, well , it will be, well, the lights will not be turned off for 5 hours, well, conditionally for a day, but four, but still light will turn off when i talk about the army with military experts, they say, yes, it was possible to occupy there a little less, it is possible to advance there a little faster, but to say that we can hold on so that, in general, russia... i am here for her the ukrainian border will not show, it is impossible, a war is a war, but my colleague, in the economy, in i have a question for you then, but in our economy, i will not believe you if you say that inflation could have been prevented, prices are not rising, everyone's salaries are rising, everything is great, there is a war, here we have asphalt laid, and here they are doing it, and they are restoring it here, and the schools are new and everything, i say no, this will not

happen, but is it possible to have two questions in one, is it possible to lose a little less in the economic and financial sphere, and if it was possible, then this means this money , which someone lost, someone earned somewhere, i.e. corruption, is corruption a factor in this untapped opportunities of the ukrainian economy, ukrainian finances. i understand that it is difficult, but try, mr. oleg, i'm sorry, i know that you will succeed, i believe in you. in the war, as in the war, well, you and i have talked more than once, and it is known that before the war in ukraine there was 32% of the shadow sector of the economy, despite the fact that in normal countries it is somewhere around 12-15. we had

32, now according to approximate estimates there are more than 45. you and i must understand that any shadow sector of the economy is also corruption, it and crumbling, this is a bunch of things that are actually extremely negative, that is, even the fact that before the war in ukraine there was 32-33% of the shadow economy already speaks of the fact that we were losing even then. quite a lot in relation to the civilized world, according to approximate estimates, the shadow sector of the economy does not pay to the state budget in the order of 750, 800 billion uah every year, well, that is, those half a trillion, which now, well, they do not know where to get, if we are completely frank, well, those who increased for security-defense now, well... come

to think of it, the shadow sector does not pay extra, and when you and i talk about the shadow sector, then we have to understand absolutely clearly that there is no state, without corrupt things, it does not work like that, and when we talk with you about rebooting the bureau of economic security, about rebooting the customs , when we talk to you about the need to improve the work of the tax system, we understand with you that these are not just words. these are things that our partners constantly and clearly point out to us, unlike us, and maybe together with us, they perfectly understand what is happening in the economy of ukraine, and when penipritzkir arrives on his last visit, before submitting the credentials of the representative of the president of ukraine, the president of the united states of america to ukraine, and says: "guys, well, do something, it can't be done either." look at

your customs office, start with it, oleg, i have, i have an additional question, excuse me for insisting so much, i am on the first... day of living in this world and following ukraine, i would put the following before you the question: is there any power in the world, in ukraine, above all, but what kind of power in the world was able to lower, i'm not saying to zero and even to 12%, okay, to 25%, but you say now 45% in the shade to 25% in a year, not for tomorrow, for the next year. september, by the way, september is a beautiful month, one of the best, i would say, until september next year to find an ideal prime minister with political will, whom the president was beating on the head, saying: "come on, come on faster, western experts, ukrainian experts, everyone, i don't believe

that it is possible to reduce the shadow to 25%, i don't believe it, and you, for all the years of ukraine's independence, name please, name me at least one government that did not display the fight against corruption and the price economy on its flags, well , name at least one government, even the respected or not respected mr. azirov spoke about it often enough and powerfully, but one thing speaks , the second thing is something not, well, there is progress, mr. oleg, because i remember the fourth, fifth, sixth years of yushchenko's 50, more than 50% in the shadows. well, 32 before the war, it means some progress, but we are back to 45 again, that is , almost as much as 15-20 years ago? well look, you mentioned, in the war, as in the war, unequivocally, that is, there are moments that do not contribute, that complicate the situation, you

say, is it possible, i also do not believe that something can be changed in a year, unequivocally, and despite there is great optimism about the adoption of the law on the reset of customs, about free tenders, about raising wages, that's all that they wrote there, you and i understand that the same people who worked there will apply there, and unequivocally it will be much longer, although i repeat once again, in a strategic perspective, you see, as a rule, something happens in ukraine when there is no other way out. therefore, now is just one of those moments, we have no other way out, or look for money where before, well, we were afraid to go out on our own during criminal investigations, so i am absolutely sure that there will definitely be some moves there, because otherwise money cannot

be found in ukraine, that is, today we are really in a corner from which there is only one way out, the clearing of at least some small areas in order to improve... the general situation, as far as, as quickly as possible make? well, at least some positive, if realistically in a year there, let it not be 20%, not 10, but at least 5-7% of the shadow economy for sure, i would say even more, you and i still have one such interesting moment, it is now very actively bypassed, economic reservation, excuse me, but as a mechanism to force an entrepreneur to... pay legal wages in order to protect his business, his employees from mobilization, this is a way to get out of the shadow economy, well , excuse me, please say very unpopular things, but if there is no other way out of the business, it will show the real salary, because, aren't we children, we don't

understand that the minimum wage paid to all staff today is definitely not the entire salary they live on, i.e. there is definitely an envelope, there is definitely some money on top. and if there is an option to stay at work or go mobilized, the business will definitely pay, it will pay the same, it will just show, which means it will increase budget revenues, that’s it for you, mr. oleg, one more clarification, very important it is important, or maybe they don't know how, but when you and i talked last time about administration or taxes or raises, sometimes we get the impression that the ukrainian officials... and the deputy corps, they just don't know how to administer, they, oh, there's no money, let's raise taxes, and when a certain oleg or a certain mykola says, he can administer it like this, what will happen, it will be better for everyone, and everyone will understand, and they say, but we

can't, we, we can, raised our hands, taxes have been increased, the administration is here, you have to enter, that's what what is happening, how to do it, how to warn, how to negotiate, this is a completely different job, you can raise it in one second, no, look, we... we are talking about what kind of public servants, those at the top, those who responsible decisions are made there, they are changed quite often, but the bulk of civil servants are very qualified people, he is a middle-ranking specialist, he has not been working there for the first year, he has experienced a lot of big superiors who, excuse me, please, those trains and come to the station

leave, and people stay, those people know very well how it works, what should be there, and let's be completely frank, that category of people, for the most part, has practically nothing to do with corruption, so if, you know, we we always talk about a technocratic government, about a government that maximizes. far from political things, from some political agreements, which is simply doing its job, so the more technocrats there are in the government, the less chance that they will not know how to administer, they know, there must be a political will at the top political leadership, and a political will not only to give instructions, but also to control and punish... those who do not want to carry out this political will, and not just watch how it is not carried out and

silently do nothing there, and give technocrats the opportunity to work normally, that's all, this is a normal option that exists in the world today, let's see how any democratic, in a democratic system, a politician comes, the cabinet of ministers changes in countries, but all bureaucratic the army, it remains, but no one changes it with the arrival of the democrats to... the entire middle rank of civil servants, it remains, there remain professionals who will at least tell you how to do it, just so that the politicians will hear, the last question is whether i have a number of questions for you, previously the questions were very simple, this business, which is now subject to higher taxes. will be able to escape into the shadows, because there are two options, either the people, the people understand and

say, okay, we will pay taxes, but if they see that there is injustice, they go into the shadow, that is, then the shadow will increase from 45 to 60, this is possible, look, well, there are several things, the first thing, eh, the tax authority of the penal authority must become unambiguously a service authority, well, so that... you understand that the punishments in this situation, you really won't achieve anything, except negativity, the business will go into the shadows. there is a small clarification, here are all the innovations that are currently being talked about and proposed, tell me, please, are the taxes on business, well, look, they are proposing to increase the military levy, does business pay, does business have there will be a cash gap, he will deposit money earlier, and then take away from us and you, excise tax, who is the final one? as an excise tax payer, and you and i, and the business will pay the excise tax, then it will rip off you and us. value added tax, as

one of the options proposed by the international monetary fund, is definitely a tax on us. tell me, please, about which business, yes, i absolutely agree that the increase in the income tax for banking institutions to 50% is a tax on business, but this is the only one at the moment, let's say, the direction of economic activity that is profitable, that lives at the expense of the budget, because basically at the moment a huge number of banks are sitting on domestic state loan bonds, they do not lend to real businesses, they do not take risks, they buy government bonds, they clearly receive remuneration from the budget for buying government bonds, from that reward they live quite well, why not take 50% of them. this is the only example, by the way, that has not yet been adopted at the moment. for the 24th year, which gives an indicator of real pressure, not pressure, but an increase

business taxes, all the latest types of taxes proposed today are for you and me, for individuals who are the final payer, so excuse me, you and i will pay, where will we go, the last question, we literally have a minute, literally a minute without exaggeration, will ukrainians continue to live like this? i.e. the shops are full, gasoline is already a dollar, people are standing still filling up their cars, kyiv lives as if there is no war. it's okay, it can be like this for a long time, or sooner or later the straps will have to be tightened, do you think it is so today because we receive 40% of our spending part of the budget in the form of macroeconomic financing from our partners, this year it is 1.6 trillion hryvnias per minute, it is 37

billion dollars, this is what we our partners gave, and we... distributed to people, well, in different versions, there are salaries for state employees, civil servants, social benefits, in the end, supplementary payments to pensions, well, we understand this, how macro-financial assistance will decrease, a much smaller volume it will be necessary, perhaps, to give to people, and this thank you, thank you, i understood, yes, i think the audience understood, i hope we will talk to you again sometime. as espresso tv, oleg penzyn, head of the economic discussion club, economic political expert, once said, we are right here, let's say, honestly, we discussed, at least more or less like-minded people, yes, you can also say that, thank you, mr. oleg, i repeat again once again, that we, not us, at the front need

funds, the front needs funds for drones, a charging station for reconnaissance of the third regiment of special operations forces. which destroy the enemy in chasovoyar district in donetsk region. uavs will be able to help improve the performance of combat missions and save the lives of our defenders. your donation will increase the effectiveness of actions against the enemy, against the russian federation. our goal is uah 890,000. please join the details on the screen. and i say goodbye to you, wishing you all comprehensive, small and big victories. the authorities have finally found the extremes in their failures, and you know who they are, ordinary ukrainians, they will now pay for other people's mistakes from their own pockets. in the first reading, thanks to the coalition of deputies of the servants of the people, as we are already used to it, former members of the opz, a radical increase in the tax burden was adopted. entrepreneurs and ordinary citizens who honestly pay their taxes and do not look for

eu schemes are outraged, because they will suffer the most. well, on the one hand, during the war on exhaustion, which imposes on us. the state really needs more money, and on the other hand , people reasonably ask why, in such a case , the government cuts spending on education, culture, refugees, veterans, and most importantly, why does it not eliminate corruption and smuggling schemes that launder tens of billions of dollars from the treasury every year. during the war, it's not just robbing one's country, it 's called looting. chaos at customs, in the tax office, without an effective judicial system and reform of the economic security bureau. increasing taxes will only have a temporary effect. the economy will go even deeper into the shadows, and the quality of life will significantly deteriorate, and it will deteriorate already in the 25th year. such extreme steps by the authorities are nothing more than an attempt to avoid responsibility for their incompetent actions. to find out what we have chance to beat the worst case scenario, subscribe to my channel. so, who

will be most affected by the latest initiatives of the authorities. everyone who works, everyone who works legally. and this is honest. businesses and state employees, the state will now charge not 1.5% of the military levy from their income, as it was before, already 5%. it is clear that the illegal business, if they did not pay this money, will not pay, but the shadow sector of the economy will expand, because all three groups of fops will now pay higher taxes, or will be forced to close their businesses. doctors, educators, cultural workers in general will suffer twice, because they decided not to index their salaries in the 25th year. given the expected inflation of almost 10% and the devaluation of the hryvnia to 45 per dollar, their real incomes will decrease significantly. on september 1, oksen lisovyi said that the average salary of teachers is uah 12,000. next year, it will not be increased, but taxes will be raised. so, after all deductions, such as personal income tax, military

service, teachers' salary in the 25th year will amount to uah 9,240. this is the maximum. here let's recall the minister's promise that the minimum salary for educators in the 24th year will be uah 10,000. and what we have on the 25th is uah 760 less. instead of the promised improvement, such a financial focus. someone will say: well, we have a war, do we need to limit ourselves in something? yes, it is really necessary. but before calling on ukrainians to tighten their belts, the authorities should start with themselves, and our partners are already talking about this directly. at the last press conference in the status of a special representative of the usa. on the economic recovery of ukraine, ms. pritskes said that our country should focus not on raising taxes, on customs reforms and fighting raw markets. you have income that you are not receiving and that you should receive today. focus on these first, gray markets, cigarettes,

alcohol or electronics that can be sold on the big market. this is a huge source of income. she even named specific amounts. ukraine loses 20 billion hryvnias every year due to the smuggling of apple equipment alone. imagine, by the end of the year, after raising taxes, ukraine will collect an additional... 50 billion uah, and smuggling of apple alone will cover this amount by almost half. 20 billion is not some abstract number, it is, according to the minister of education oksana lisovoy, almost half of the amount needed to raise teachers' salaries. there was hope that from next year the situation will change, at least at the customs, because under the pressure of western partners through force, but the authorities agreed to reform the customs. the parliament adopted the relevant law. i voted for him too. it is obvious that this law. this is an incomplete reform of the customs, because there is a lot to reform the customs simply. let's make a common database of what crosses the polish, romanian , or hungarian border and

the ukrainian border. and if one corresponds to the other, then there will be nothing to take smuggled payments, but of course no one wants to do this, because smuggling both fed and continues to feed, well, probably the ukrainian government, if the ukrainian government does not change this, although the law is of course the first a step towards reform. the history of ukrainian parliamentarism knows many examples when good ideas were hidden at the stage of implementation. for example, the only marathon will never be closed. pro-government propaganda next year will cost us uah 1.5 billion. if this money is not enough, then no problem. taxes can be increased again. the cabinet of ministers has postponed, but has not abandoned, the idea of ​​raising the value-added tax. this is the tax we pay on every purchase. value added tax is not only paid by white businesses. state employees, and in general all ukrainians, this is the so -called indirect tax, we pay it with every purchase and with every purchase of services as well, it affects the price of goods,

the price of the service, each of you feels it in your wallet, all these new taxes can be called in one word: a tax on incompetent government, and unfortunately everyone will have to pay it. what do you think about these changes? how will they affect your life? if you have ideas for solving the budget problem without additional ... for honest taxpayers , share in the comments and do not forget to subscribe to the channel to be aware of important news. the longer the war lasts, the more projects there are to end it. ukraine's victory plan is new and still secret initiative of president volodymyr zelensky, with which he is going to the united states. according to the president, the document contains specific military-diplomatic steps. and of an economic nature, which will bring the end of the war closer to the conditions of a just peace, however, the supreme commander emphasizes, they must be done very

quickly, by the end of this year, and whether the plan will work depends mostly on president joseph biden. what happens if president biden doesn't support your plan, do you have a plan b, i frankly absolutely answered, and we're already in plan b. we live and fight in it, we never had a, because plan a was to prevent a full-scale invasion, plan a was to strengthen ukraine with weapons and preemptively sanction the russian federation, which it feared, even the thought of a full-scale invasion. zelenskyy presents the victory plan not only to the current us president, until the end of his term, which has only four months left, he has scheduled meetings with the candidates, vice president kamala garis and ex-president donald trump, but whether will the document convince them to take decisive

steps? the biden and harris administrations have been criticized since the start of the full-scale invasion for lacking a strategy for russian aggression. congress, which has already allocated more than 175 billion dollars to support ukraine, has long been demanding an answer from the white house on how it sees the end of the war. since the early days of putin's war against ukraine, we have asked the biden administration to provide a strategy for how the united states and our allies can help ukraine win the war. when they did not respond to our requests, we obliged them by law to submit the strategy to congress, but the deadline passed without a response. president biden and vice president kagaris are required to appear. strategy, not only to us, but to the american people, and their inaction shows that they either have no strategy or are afraid to make it public. jim risch,

us senate. from the republican party, a member of the committee on international relations. in the end, after the deadline, the white house did send its strategy to congress this september. at least, that's what the agency claims reuters, whether this is a carefully thought-out plan or just a bureaucratic write-off is not yet known. the report itself is classified, president zelensky was not informed of its contents either. instead, a little more light was shed on trump's so-called... peace plan, which promises to end the war within 24 hours of victory and even before the inauguration. in one of the interviews, a possible option for the end of the war was described by the partner of the republican candidate, senator jay divens. i think it would look like this: trump sits down and tells the russians, to the ukrainians, to the europeans: you guys should find out what a peaceful settlement looks like, and

it probably looks like it is now.' it must be strongly fortified so that the russians do not invade again. as part of the peace plan, ukraine will retain its independence in exchange for neutrality, i.e. ukraine will not join nato. there was no reaction to the words of vance, who actually offered ukraine to come to terms with the loss of territories from official kyiv. on the other hand, on the bank brief, they reacted unequivocally to neochi'. proposal of the head of the polish diplomacy of radoslaw sikorski at the yalta european strategy summit , the minister of foreign affairs of poland proposed to transfer crimea under the un mandate as a possible option in order to prepare for a fair referendum, he was answered not only by the ukrainian ministry of foreign affairs and mejlis, but also by the president's office. crimea is ukraine, russia violated international law and

has to answer. pay for it andriy yermak, head of the office of the president of ukraine. obviously, the west does not have a common vision of ending the war. contradictions exist not only between countries, but also within some governments. putin understands this and is trying to use it to his advantage, fanning the myth of russia's invincibility on the battlefield and threatening nato with a direct nuclear conflict, whether this strategy is effective, at least after months of ukraine's requests to allow it. strikes by western weapons deep into russian territory, there is still no official decision, although it was expected after the meeting between president biden and british prime minister starmer. so ukraine is looking for ways to become less dependent on allies. destruction of two ammunition depots in the tver region and another in the krasnodar region this week probably became possible thanks to ukrainian-

made weapons. but ukraine's capabilities are limited and cannot be compared with russia's potential, so we cannot win without allies and their military-industrial complex, and they are in no hurry to make strategic decisions, and when they do make them, it is too late, so the victory plan may ultimately and remain another unrealized document. and the war will continue according to its own laws, not subject to any plans, strategies and forecasts. congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the spresa tv channel, vitaly portnikov is with you, and today we are talking about what is happening with russian propaganda during all these years of war.