we are watching later, after this pagergate, how the israeli armed forces tzahal attacked beirut, that is, they were actually hit all over lebanon, not only in beirut, dozens, maybe even hundreds of different objects, mainly this military facilities that are related to hezbollah, and we see that there... aviation was also used, we saw that ballistic missiles were also used there, that is, in fact, we can even say that as of now, israel and lebanon are in such, if not a direct state of war, then a pre-war one, can a full-fledged war occur, well, look, lebanon will definitely not fight with israel, israel can only fight with hasbolah, lebanon does not even have the strength to go to war with israel, but... the important thing is that you

are talking about these strikes, they are by and large israel's attempts to destroy the infrastructure, it is not only walkie-talkies, not only pagers, it is these missile strikes, why, because they are primarily aimed at the top management of the sbu, here i want to show you this graphic, we can't do it to show the audience, but we can look at it for ourselves, it's actually a graphic that shows the composition of hezbollah's leadership, and here you see that... of his three main deputies, two, and brahim kiel - this was yesterday, and fuad shukr, it was recently, their subordinates were actually destroyed, of the five people who exercised direct leadership of the militants, four out of five have already been destroyed, which means that in fact the leadership of hezbollah as such was eliminated under hasan nastrala no one... there is, of course, now they

can "new people will appear in these positions, but they you will have to get used to it for a while, and they can also be eliminated, and in any case, you understand that when you have a kind of politburo of nine people, of these nine people, six have already been destroyed, then this is not very , what is hezbollah counting on then, they, didn’t they guess that there would be exactly such a result, well it was, it was in... it is really obvious that if hezbollah continues to escalate the situation, then at least part of the leadership, at least part their infrastructural facilities will simply be destroyed, which they counted on theirs actions? the first thing they count on is the fear that israel will not dare because it will fear a response. and we must understand that we are dealing with people who are quite fanatical. it is not necessary to think that hasan nasala lives in any real world at all. first of all, no one. never seen in

the real world in my life, all these people, ibrahim akil, foad shukar, these are people who appeared in the real world, so they could be killed. when was the last time you saw hassan nasrallah live, all of his speeches were by video link, right? maybe it doesn't exist? well, maybe he is, maybe he doesn't exist, but maybe it's this, you know, image, yes, but he always speaks, addresses people via video link, we're talking about putin's white table, but putin is at least leaving on people, and hasan nasila. never does, that is , in theory he, even if he exists, he is there somewhere in some bunkers and is, of course, like how and like his counterpart in gas, yah kinvar and his brother mohamed, these people exist, but no one ever knows them seen since the time when it all began, that is, they hide in in some bunkers, and unlike khatsaan, the settlement is clear and does not address anyone , so it is generally very difficult to understand in which world he lives, that is, if you live all the time in complete isolation. from

the real world, you don't communicate with any people, you only communicate with this ibrahim makil and faad shukr, then you create your own picture of reality, which is beneficial to you, this is the first moment, the second moment, you somehow depend on the country, who is holding you behind hasan's back shit, if he meets someone there, you can always see portraits of ita li haniya, not what... these are lebanese politicians, this is not a person who has state continuity with lebanon, that's the horror, this is a person who has state continuity with iran because what is lebanon? lebanon is a state that, by and large, was founded in order to ensure the interaction of arabs, christians, sunnis, shiites and druze, and to distribute power in this complex ethno-confessional state between them and the main state succession. lebanon

connected with the lebanese christians, because they don't have any other state in the arab world besides lebanon, and all the famous lebanese politicians we mention when we talk about the history of lebanon are christians. the maronites, the people who are in the church that obeys the vatican, this is essentially such a different remake of the greek catholic church only on lebanese soil, and hezbollah is an organization, you say, the idea of ​​the shiite world, that is, iran, the shiites of iraq, the shiites of lebanon, the shiites of bahrain, it is a completely separate state the structure is, so to speak, supranational. state, which should control these states where shiites live. why, by the way, iran still has a claim on azerbaijan, and they show it all the time, trying to somehow strengthen their position there, because in azerbaijan , part of the population is azerbaijani shiites, there is a sunni population, and there are also a lot of shiites.

well, here is the answer to your question, so if you are not interested in the state interests of lebanon, but are interested in the state interests of iran, then maybe you can donate in lebanese... the security of lebanon as such in order to strike a bigger blow at israel, that is, for hasan, they screwed up, lebanon is just such a weapon, lebanon itself, with the help of which he wants to harm israel, that's all. and if we are talking about in this context, about another international track, in particular about the united states of america, trump already spoke about it there, of course, that could be expected. trump said that muslims should not be allowed into the united states of america, in particular he said this in the context of his election campaign, implying that when he becomes president, according to the plan

, no one will ever come to the united states of america, or at least come, but will be subject to such a large-scale inspection, but by the way, one more thing, i mentioned just now, trump criticized the jews of ... the states of america, and for the fact that they are allegedly going to vote for kamala harius, that is, such a very strange statement that i am actually also shocked by what he says, well, in general, we are shocked by many statements of donald trump in the context of common sense and the conduct of technological conducting an election campaign, there are a lot of things wrong, so here are these two statements, how do you evaluate them and for what... practically repels an increasingly large category of voters, what is in their minds, well, in particular in the context of this middle eastern conflict , you understand the point, here is the very statement that if i don't win the elections, the jews will be to blame, you don't remember anything when a person who calls

himself a friend of israel says it, but if i don't win, the jews will be to blame , we have to blame in these jews, maybe after that there was a riot? give at all after the defeat of donald trump jewish? well, you see, from the point of view of political technology, there is such a harsh reality behind these words. the vast majority of american jews are the electorate of the democratic party. why? because for many years in a row, republicans have been associated with, let's say, the interest of this average american, let's call him, putin's favorite... there are americans of anglo-saxon origin, and jews, well, lest we think there, they the minority is religious and national, but they do not belong to the majority, 2%, as far as i understand in the united states, at least according to statistics, well, like any

minority, they vote for those political forces that support the interests of the minority, although we already talked about the fact that basically after october 7th, a lot of american jews... who have always been democratic supporters, they said, listen, we don't like the way this democratic media is close to the democratic party media is covering this conflict, no i like how many in the circle of democratic politicians treat this situation, the same bernisan, so we are watching and we do not understand what to do, we are in such a state of uncertainty when trump tells them that you will have to vote, of course he reminds them of anti-semitism again, because... for any jew, and this, by the way, was said by the leaders of the jewish organizations of america, there is anti-semitism in such a statement, you specifically single us out and make us guilty of that time as you have a huge number of voters no the jews, on whom you depend, the jews will not bring you victory, because they are 2%, why do you

single us out, and because if i do not win, then israel will perish, here again the slippery slope is very expensive, you see, many ... american jews support the state of israel, this is such a historic pact between one of the founders of the state of israel , david mangurion, and the american leadership of the american congress, that here... we do not support the departure of american jews to israel, and you support israel politically, and we exist in symbiosis, but it is a pact on a level political institutions. there is a lot of jewish population in america, who believe that jews should live in america, that they are best accepted here, that it is safest here, for sure, america is safer with israel, we will not argue, that's how these people are in principle. are voting not for israel to exist or not to exist, but for the american jewish

community to feel equal and safe in the states, this is the first question, for many religious jews, the existence of israel there is not a part of their lives at all, they are voters, but they generally believe that israel should not be there, well, jews are different, well, among people of the same origin, there are many different positions, but i always remind you that when there was... the ukrainian revolution, some jewish parties were neutral , others were hostile to it, while others supported it, its ministers were part of the governments of petlyura and vennichenko, because they were supporters of this revolution, and these were all jewish politicians who, in principle, could gather in one synagogue on maleban, but their views political were diametrically opposed opposites, that's how a normal nation exists, that's how ukrainians exist, that's how americans themselves exist in the united states, so it's very strange. statements for me, as for a jew, because i do not want to be responsible for

the defeat or victory of donald trump even from the point of view of my own ethnic origin, so i imagine what would have happened if i still had an american passport, then , that he is, therefore, let's put it this way, he really has a chance, there were, there were, i think, there were chances to attract a part of voters of jewish origin to his side, we have to understand that the electorate of donald trump is much more people than jews. these are evangelical christians. their millions of people are much more than the number of jews in the states. there are up to 6 million states, tens of millions of these people. and they support israel, because they believe that the very existence of israel is evidence that salvation will soon come. for them, the fact of the existence of israel for their religious worldview is a confirmation that they are absolutely true to the movement. in its own christian way, these are the people, this is the traditional electorate

of the republican party, johnson, the face of such an electorate, the speaker of the house of representatives, it is not clear why he would need jews in such a situation, why would he say anything about jews, because it might cause misunderstanding of these christians, evangelicals, who treat jews just fine, by the way his son-in-law, the husband of his daughter, is also ivan. position , isn’t it possible for them to suggest whether they don’t influence him in some way in relation to such issues, you know the strength and weakness of trump in the fact that he is a living person, well that is, as for strength. of volodymyr zelensky, a politician cannot afford

to be a living person if he wants to deal with this story. trump is a living person, but he, relatively speaking, got mad at the rally, you know, ugh, and started to grind like this, i don’t think that if you put him in jail like that, tell him, mr. president, what are you saying, he admits that he got into a fever, but he has such a character and temperament, he is a showboy. business, not even from big business, but from show business, remember those programs of his, there he was like fish out of water, well, programs, ads, and he, and by the way, it's a known fact that he had a meeting with the biggest donors of the republican party, to whom we said, listen, you have every chance to win if you calm down, just calm down grandpa, grandpa, just take it easy, i'll be the president of all americans, tra-ta-ta, and i did n't say anything. you will not succeed, i will be what i am, i am this, by the way, it can only

be respected that he is ready even to lose, but not to betray his own self, and, but in this the essence of donald trump, by the way, i think that many people who vote for him respect that in him, i sometimes think, but here we are, you and i are political technologists, and we began to give him some advice, something for him the shot was given to calm him down before the rally, and maybe this is not the trump that the majority of people vote for, those who support him... maybe people like the living trump, not that maybe, maybe, but this is not the trump that guaranteed to win, he could win if he chose. would like some kind of gold the middle, but maybe not, maybe he would lose, here he would find it, and there he would lose it, we don't know, or maybe he will win, well, we don't know, let's see how long we have to wait there, a month and 10 days how many or 15, today we mentioned another country, about armenia, yes, and exactly, in fact,

a year, these days, exactly one year ago, in 2023 , about 100 thousand armenians actually left karabakh, yes , we have already mentioned that now there, well, the situation in this region is quite such that it is empty, but in including, perhaps, it is worth talking about armenia in general today, because the processes that are taking place in this country, they are... armenia, which, in principle, for many decades, if we talk about the times after the collapse of the soviet union, was a state which was completely dependent on russia, which was completely in russia's political orbit, in principle, armenians were very often in russia's political orbit, even ukrainian

armenians, but i, for example, had them when i studied at the university. fellow students, people who studied, we communicated with them, i knew their views, today these views are changing, today these views are becoming different, and in particular, the prime minister of armenia pashinyanyan, he actually demonstrates, at least such a maneuver between, between, between, between, but he accuses the kremlin of preparing a coup, he says enough negative things about the csto, as far as i understand, armenia is in principle... in principle ready to leave the csto, we see efforts to at least move somewhere towards the european union, somewhere towards some european values, at least in part of contacts with european partners, what is currently happening with armenia, to what extent is this corridor of departure from russia and movement to

the european union for it, and why? this country now after what happened a year ago with karabakh? well, you know, i have been talking with my romanian interlocutor since the 90s and i continue to adhere to this point of view that karabakh was a real civilization trap for armenians, well, not a state trap, not even a trap, but a civilization trap, because the very independence of this country was dictated by the need to control karabakh, the very idea... and not some other organization, this is the first moment, the second moment, the fact that this victory in the first karabakh war could not have been without the intervention of russia, and irmen perfectly understood that they

could not hold this situation without the support of russia, well, it is clear, because look at azerbaijan, look at armenia. so, for several decades in a row, armenia simply did not develop economically, politically, in any way. all development was for the sake of maintaining control over karabakh and those regions of azerbaijan, which once led this territory. armenia essentially got rid of the normal democratic procedure for the change of power, political clans came to power, and again, completely oriented towards russia, and which were from karabakh. and the second president. i am absolutely not going to divide armenians by the regions of their residence and by the countries of their residence, this is armenia a country for armenians, but the clans are simply pro-russian, it does not even matter so much that they are from karabakh, how important is their orientation towards moscow, and on the other hand hand if you think about karabakh, and its maintenance,

and you yourself are a former official from karabakh, robert kacheryam was the president of nagorno-karabakh. since how do you get this territory, and it actually went on for decades, this gordian knot was cut by moscow itself, not baku, because moscow decided that if the armenians managed to get rid of their pro-russian leadership, restore democratic processes, start forming relations with various countries of the world, then it should be as shown that such and such countries and such and such leadership will suffer a fiasco, therefore moscow looked at the first, the second karabakh war and its end with complete calmness. this is a strange thing in general, the russians promised to keep the armenian population of karabakh safe, and when the azerbaijani troops decided to take control of what

was left of karabakh, the russian servicemen did not participate at all, someone believed that this was happening because , that russia was mired in the war in ukraine, on the other hand, someone believed that there was no need for such significant forces, however, someone believed that it was... essentially an agreement with azerbaijan is not even a negotiator, i would not underestimate the political abilities of ilham aliyev, i think that ilham aliyev simply understood that putin will not be disturbed, uh, at this stage of history, is he mired in a war, or does he just want to get rid of pashinyan , but did not get rid of it once after the second karabakh war, maybe this and the exit of the karabakh vermen will lead to a change of power, and this is not the end of the story, you see, they need to return armenia to the russian sphere of influence, just as they need to return moldova, ugh, the way they need to

return georgia, that's everything for them, and as they need, by the way, to return azerbaijan, that's all for them the future territories, the future empire, and there is an opportunity for russia now to return armenia, well, at least we see, with moldova it is under a big question, because in moldova. there are no unified pro-russian forces, they are de facto now fragmented, there, despite all that russian propaganda, sandu has sandu, she leads, and her political power leads, in azerbaijan the story is a little different, there is an authoritarian government, support from turkey, and well, it is very difficult for me to say that azerbaijan can, that russia will be able to establish a full-fledged control, things are hybrid there, maybe georgia, well, georgia is actually already drifting there somewhere in such a russian measure, it is separate, but it is not known whether it will reach it ,

taking into account the fact that now there will be parliamentary elections and it is not known how they will end and what will happen there after, but armenia is actually one of the most litmus tests for russia, and in my opinion they have better chances there than in others countries, i don't think so, i think it is exactly the same with georgia and azerbaijan, ugh, for other reasons simply, that is, the armenians, you see, they got out of the karabakh mess, politically, but who told you that they got out mentally, they are still incredibly offended by russia for, ugh, it did not live up to their hopes for security, that is, in armenia, the armenian people did not have the idea that here we are... and in order to cooperate with russia, relatively speaking, we have to obey them, no one has such an idea armenian, they think, well we are allies there, we have

to cooperate, agree, and what power we will have there is our right, we russians choose our government, we choose ours, what about you, our government is ready for relations with russia, but russia betrayed us , in fact, supported from the point of view... and if russia behaves here in such a hybrid way, like in georgia, let us assume, of course, that no political force in armenia will say that dear citizens, we for russia, but it can behave conditionally in a hybrid way, and as far as i understand, russia is betting on it there, no, why not, that’s exactly what they say there, it’s not the same as in georgia, there is a clear division into political forces, such as pashinyan’s party, which says what we want, we want to maintain relations with russia, but we believe that we need to orient ourselves to the west, like building relations with france, the united

states, think even about the european union, and the power that speaking, we should be with russia, no, frankly speaking, there the struggle of these two concepts, that's actually what i'm talking about, here the second concept, it can win, maybe, because it is now perceived as treasonous, because... russia itself did everything to prevent this concept from winning, it can win only through a coup d'état. and i tell you once again, put yourself in the place of an average armenian. you can imagine the average armenian. did russia betray you or not? betrayed, betrayed, that's why i say it again, at the beginning of our conversation about this, i mentioned my friends who were 15 years ago, 16 years ago, 10 years ago believed in... russia, i remember these conversations, they believed in russia, now it's a completely different position, well, i do, if you're talking about people living in ukraine, who are simply watching for this, for this, imagine a person whose

son died. in the war, and either the relatives left for stepanakert or the highway, and who is to blame for this, well who is pashinyan, of course, he may also be guilty in the eyes of these people, but they will not vote for the forces that will say, you know, putin is not guilty, we need to be with russia, everything will be fine, because they have already been with russia, and from their point of view they did not offend her, because they do not believe that the armed revolution is against russia, as a result, russia behaved so meanly in relation to them, that is, putin is largely on his own... into a trap in armenia and azerbaijan, and by the way, also in georgia, because we will see how the parliamentary elections in this country will end. exclusively on the air of our channel. congratulations, friends, the politclub program is on the air on the espresso tv channel. the most relevant topics.

nato member countries have huge arsenals, and russia already on the approach to the exhaustion of resources. topics that resonate in our society. this is the question of trump's victory, what is it? analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. what else can the russians do, are they able to use, say, the resources of the lukashenka army allied with them? vitaly portnikov and the guests of the project, read the entire service, accept my song, thank you, it was difficult. help to understand the present and predict the future , offered a swollen staff to conclude with us bilateral security agreement project for those who care and think politclub every sunday at 20:00 at espresso.

glory to ukraine, dear tv viewers, on espresso tv channel, studio zahid program, we will analyze the most important events of this week, in particular, we will carefully analyze the peace plan of president zelensky and how it will be received in various diplomatic and power offices, overseas and european. at the same time, we will talk about how the west will adjust its concept of war , taking into account the fact that the armed forces of ukraine raised the level. having destroyed the strategic warehouses of the russian federation on the territory of the tver region, well, let's talk, of course, about the influence of the kurdish operation of the armed forces of ukraine on the consciousness of ordinary muscovites. today's guests of zahid studio are matthew bryza and dmitry oreshkin. matthew bryza, ex-adviser to the secretary of state of the united states, former director of european and eurasian affairs at the us national security council, will be working on the espresso tv channel. glory. to ukraine,

dear mr. ambassador, i welcome you to the espresso studio. glory to the heroes, though. so what extremely important signals, i emphasize, signals come from us both from mass media and from certain diplomatic sources. we understand that a very tough war is going on, our fighters are on the territory of the russian federation in the kursk region, an extremely bloody operation in the pokrovsky direction, when we are talking about russian interventionists. and at the same time, yes, we regularly hear one or another message about the so-called peace talks and possible agreements. let these not be immediate direct agreements, but in any case talk about the so-called possible package visions. well, and most importantly, the president of ukraine will present the leadership of the united states, in particular to president joseph biden, a ukrainian

peace plan in order to put pressure on them. to russia, to the aggressor state. how do you see the situation? yes, we know that president zelenskyi is going to present his peace plan to president biden, and there are high expectations, at least outside the white house, with keyer starmer recently visiting washington, and thus the secretary of state david lammy and secretary of state antony blinken visited president zelenskyi, they were expected. on the part of the us and great britain, it was assumed that the leaders could allow ukraine to use missiles to attack and storm shadow on targets deep in russian territory. however, this has not yet been announced. the us president's national security advisor, jake sullivan, was recently asked about this clearance, and he simply answered.